Misplaced Pages

Opinion polling for the 1999 New Zealand general election

Article snapshot taken from[REDACTED] with creative commons attribution-sharealike license. Give it a read and then ask your questions in the chat. We can research this topic together.
Opinion polling for elections

Opinion polling was commissioned throughout the duration of the 45th New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 1999 election by various organisations.

Party vote

Polls are listed in the table below in chronological order. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Graphical summary

Local regression of polls conducted

Individual polls

Poll Date Labour National NZ First Alliance ACT Green United
1996 election result 12 Oct 1996 28.19 33.87 13.35 10.10 6.10 – 0.88
One News Colmar Brunton 13 Feb 1997 31 45 7 7 4.3 – 0.2
One News Colmar Brunton 13 Mar 1997 32 47 4.2 7 4.4 – –
One News Colmar Brunton 11 Apr 1997 36 41 5 8 6 – 0.1
One News Colmar Brunton 13 May 1997 42 38 3.8 6 4.7 – 0.1
TV3/CM Research 25 May 1997 45 30 6 6.7 7.1 – –
One News Colmar Brunton 25 Jun 1997 41 39 4.4 7 4.9 – 0.1
One News Colmar Brunton 10 Jul 1997 42 39 3.8 7 4.5 – 0.2
One News Colmar Brunton 7 Aug 1997 42 39 3.7 9 4.7 – 0
One News Colmar Brunton 18 Sep 1997 45 36 1.9 7 6 – 0.6
TV3/CM Research 11 Oct 1997 49 31 4.5 8.3 5.9 – –
New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll 13 Oct 1997 50 32 1.7 5.9 4.6 – –
One News Colmar Brunton 16 Oct 1997 52 30 1.8 7 6 – 0.2
One News Colmar Brunton 4 Nov 1997 45 37 2.3 6 5 – 0.3
One News Colmar Brunton 13 Nov 1997 45 36 2.8 6 7 – –
TV3/CM Research 23 Nov 1997 45 34 3.1 7.6 7 – –
8 December 1997 – Jenny Shipley is elected Prime Minister and leader of the National Party after Jim Bolger's resignation.
One News Colmar Brunton 8–10 Dec 1997 46 40 1.1 6 5 0.6 0.1
One News Colmar Brunton 12 Feb 1998 45 42 1.3 5 5 0.4 –
TV3-CM Research 15 Feb 1998 44 38 1.8 7.9 4.4 0.5 –
One News Colmar Brunton 25 Mar 1998 39 42 1.6 5 8 0.6 0.3
TV3/CM Research 21 Apr 1998 38 42 2.2 6.3 6.1 0.4 –
One News Colmar Brunton 23 Apr 1998 38 46 2.5 6 5 0.4 0.3
2 May 1998 – National narrowly wins the Taranaki-King Country by-election after Bolger's resignation.
New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll 11 May 1998 34.7 38.3 1.7 8.5 11.8 1.4 –
TV3/CM Research 14 May 1998 37 41 2.1 8 9 0.2 0.1
One News Colmar Brunton 18 Jun 1998 37 37 2.1 9 11 0.5 0.1
One News Colmar Brunton 9 Jul 1998 42 36 1.9 9 8 0.2 –
TV3-CM Research 10 Jul 1998 42 36 2.3 9.9 5.1 1 –
One News Colmar Brunton 6 Aug 1998 40 39 2.6 9 6 0.7 –
New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll 11 Aug 1998 46.1 32.6 2.2 9.7 5.9 – –
One News Colmar Brunton 13 Aug 1998 41 39 2.9 9 5 – –
14 August 1998 – Winston Peters is sacked from cabinet by Shipley ending the coalition between National and New Zealand First.
TV3/CM Research 13 Sep 1998 42 35 4.4 9.1 4.7 0.4 –
One News Colmar Brunton 22 Sep 1998 42 41 1.8 7 6 0.3 –
One News Colmar Brunton 15 Oct 1998 48 35 2 6 6 0.7 0.1
One News Colmar Brunton 16 Nov 1998 48 34 2 7 6 0.5 –
TV3/CM Research 17 Nov 1998 49 32 3 5 5 1 –
New Zealand Herald-Digipoll 7 Dec 1998 51 32 3.5 6 4.5 – –
One News Colmar Brunton 10 Dec 1998 45 35 2.4 8 5 0.4 0.1
One News Colmar Brunton 11 Feb 1999 42 41 2.6 7 3.9 0.7 –
TV3/CM Research 14 Feb 1999 43 37 3 7 5 1 –
One News Colmar Brunton 23 Mar 1999 39 42 2.2 7 6 0.6 0.4
TV3/CM Research 18 Apr 1999 41 37 3 8 5 1 –
One News Colmar Brunton 27 Apr 1999 44 38 1.5 6 6 0.5 0.4
One News Colmar Brunton 19 May 1999 44 39 2.6 7 4.4 0.9 0.2
One News Colmar Brunton 17 Jun 1999 42 41 1.9 6 4.9 1.4 –
TV3/CM Research 20 Jun 1999 46 33 4 7 4 1.4 –
One News Colmar Brunton 13 Jul 1999 44 38 1.8 6 4.7 0.9 0.2
TV3/CM Research 25 Jul 1999 38 37 4.7 8 6 1.5 –
One News Colmar Brunton 5 August 1999 40 38 4 7 7 1.1 –
TV3/CM Research 22 August 1999 40 32 7 7 6 2.6 –
New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll 28 Aug – 3 Sep 1999 43.8 35.7 5.5 5 – 3.1 –
One News Colmar Brunton 16 Sep 1999 41 35 4.1 7 5 1.9 0.2
TV3/CM Research 19 Sep 1999 39 33 7 6 7 2.4 –
TV3/CM Research 10 Oct 1999 40 36 4 8 7 2 –
TV3/CM Research 20 Oct 1999 37 33 6 7 9 2.5 –
One News Colmar Brunton 18 Oct 1999 39 37 6 4.5 7 1 0.5
New Zealand Herald-Digipoll 5 Nov 1999 35.2 34 1 8.7 9.2 2.9 0.3
TV3/CM Research 7 Nov 1999 41 28 6 7 10 2.9 –
One News Colmar Brunton 11 Nov 1999 34 33 6 9 11 2.4 0.1
TV3/CM Research 17 Nov 1999 37 30 6 9 9 2.8 –
New Zealand Herald-Digipoll 26 Nov 1999 39.8 29.9 3.6 7.7 8.5 5.4 –
One News Colmar Brunton 26 Nov 1999 39 31 3.2 8 7 6 0.7
TV3/CM Research 26 Nov 1999 34 29 5.5 9 11 6 –
1999 election result 27 Nov 1999 38.74 30.50 4.26 7.74 7.04 5.16 0.54

Preferred prime minister

Individual polls

Poll Date Helen Clark Jim Bolger Jenny Shipley Winston Peters Jim Anderton Richard Prebble Mike Moore
One News Colmar Brunton 13 May 1997 21 20 6 4 6 – 5
One News Colmar Brunton 25 Jun 1997 26 21 4 4 5 – 4
One News Colmar Brunton 13 Aug 1997 25 20 9 3 7 – –
8 December 1997 – Jenny Shipley is elected Prime Minister and leader of the National Party after Jim Bolger's resignation.
One News Colmar Brunton 8 – 10 Dec 1997 28 5 27 2 – – –
One News Colmar Brunton 12 Feb 1998 26 3 27 1 5 – 3
TV3-CM Research 15 Feb 1998 28 4 20 2 5 – 5
One News Colmar Brunton 25 Mar 1998 23 3 31 3 4 – 3
TV3-CM Research 10 Jul 1998 21 – 22 – – – –
One News Colmar Brunton 11 Aug 1998 22 – 28 2 9 2 –
14 August 1998 – Winston Peters is sacked from cabinet by Shipley ending the coalition between National and New Zealand First.
One News Colmar Brunton 22 Sep 1998 23 – 28 3 7 1 –
TV3/CM Research 17 Nov 1998 24 – 15 4 6 – –
One News Colmar Brunton 23 Mar 1999 21 – 29 – – – –
One News Colmar Brunton 27 Apr 1999 21 – 27 3 5 1 –
One News Colmar Brunton 19 May 1999 22 – 27 4 6 1 –
New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll 11 Aug 1999 19.5 – 17.6 2.4 6.4 – 3
New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll 8 Sep 1999 19.5 1.1 16 6.9 4.4 1.8 1.7
One News Colmar Brunton 26 Nov 1999 30 – 27 – – – –
TV3/CM Research 26 Nov 1999 23 – 20 – – – –

Electorate polling

Coromandel

Poll Date Tony Bird Jeanette Fitzsimons Margaret Hawkeswood Robyn McDonald Murray McLean
Reid Research 5–8 Aug 1999 6 33 20 10 31
Sunday Star Times/UMR Insight 24 Oct 1999 – 34 15 – 37
TV1 Colmar Brunton 10 Nov 1999 8 39 13 4 36
Dominion/UMR Insight 15 Nov 1999 – 43 11 – 35
TV1 Colmar Brunton 18–21 Nov 1999 3 44 11 – 39
1999 election result 27 Nov 1999 3.56 39.98 11.37 3.61 39.25

Wellington Central

Poll Date Marian Hobbs Richard Prebble
TV1 Colmar Brunton 8 Nov 1999 48 47
1999 election result 27 Nov 1999 48.37 44.27

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti

Poll Date Derek Fox Bill Gudgeon Parekura Horomia Dalvanius Prime Des Ratima Vicky Robin Tauni Sinclair
Marae 31.7 10.9 34.6 3.9 4.2 2.9 3.3
Marae 21 Nov 1999 34 – 36.6 – – – –
1999 election result 27 Nov 1999 37.16 5.97 40.99 — 5.27 0.77 —

Waiariki

Poll Date Tuariki Delamere Mita Ririnui
Marae 21 Nov 1999 27.1 30
1999 election result 27 Nov 1999 20.01 45.11

See also

Notes

  1. ^ These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.

References

  1. "Part I - Summary of Party List and Electorate Candidate Seats" (PDF). Wellington: Electoral Commission. 1997. Retrieved 2 August 2020.
  2. ^ "Historical Pollling Data 1974–2023". Patrick Leyland. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  3. ^ Luke, Peter (13 May 1997). "Labour tops poll as Govt rating slides". The Press.
  4. ^ "Coalition takes a dive". The Press. 25 June 1997.
  5. "Polls show Labour may gain enough votes for outright win". The Press. 14 October 1997.
  6. ^ "Little between Clark, Shipley in poll rating". The Press. 16 December 1997. p. 3.
  7. ^ "Shipley leads in one poll, trails in another". The Dominion. 17 February 1998. p. 2.
  8. ^ "Labour now trails National in latest poll". Waikato Times. 25 March 1998. p. 2.
  9. Espiner, Guyon (12 May 1998). "Fletcher sees no mandate for 'lurch to right'". The Evening Post. p. 9.
  10. ^ "Labour most popular party – poll". The Press. 10 July 1998. p. 9.
  11. ^ "Labour ahead of National in new polls". The Press. 11 August 1998. p. 3.
  12. ^ "Poll shows National's popularity on the rise". Waikato Times. 22 September 1998. p. 2.
  13. Edwards, Brent (16 November 1998). "Clark confident of Labour victory after latest poll". The Evening Post. p. 3.
  14. ^ "Two polls show Labour leads". Waikato Times. 17 November 1998. p. 2.
  15. "Poll shows Labour could govern alone". The Press. 8 December 1998. p. 9.
  16. ^ "National now ahead of Labour in polls". Waikato Times. 23 March 1999. p. 21.
  17. ^ "Poll shows Labour Party back in front". The Dominion. 27 April 1999. p. 2.
  18. ^ "Labour retains lead as National inches up poll". Waikato Times. 19 May 1999. p. 2.
  19. Llewellyn, Ian (13 July 1999). "TV1 Poll Shows A Return To Status Quo". Scoop.co.nz.
  20. Hill, Jonathan (6 September 1999). "Labour Surge, Alliance Slump in Latest Poll". Scoop.co.nz.
  21. "Nats on rise, but Prebble holds firm; Nats on rise in polls". The Evening Post. 18 October 1999. p. 1.
  22. "Latest poll points to election cliffhanger". Waikato Times. 5 November 1999. p. 2.
  23. Edwards, Brent (26 November 1999). "Polls point to National's ousting". Waikato Times. p. 2.
  24. ^ Main, Victoria (26 November 1999). "Polls tip Labour-led coalition". The Dominion. p. 1.
  25. "1999 GENERAL ELECTION – Summary of Overall Results". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 27 November 1999. Retrieved 15 December 2017.
  26. "Rise in support for Shipley as leader". The Press. 14 August 1997.
  27. "Clark tops Shipley in preferred PM poll". The Press. 11 August 1999. p. 7.
  28. "Peters back on track with voters". The Press. 8 September 1999. p. 10.
  29. "Poll Shows Fitzsimons Ahead In Coromandel". Scoop.co.nz. 17 August 1999.
  30. "Greens' Coromandel confidence buoyed by poll". 24 October 1999.
  31. Hill, Jonathan (10 November 1999). "Fitzsimons Edges Ahead in Latest Coromandel Poll". Scoop.co.nz.
  32. "Fitzsimons takes lead in Coromandel". Scoop.co.nz. 11 November 1999.
  33. Hill, Jonathan (15 November 1999). "Greens Look Set to go to Parliament". Scoop.co.nz.
  34. Hill, Jonathan (25 November 1999). "Greens Still Lead in Coromandel". Scoop.co.nz.
  35. Hill, Jonathan (9 November 1999). "Poll Shock For Prebble in Wellington Central". Scoop.co.nz.
  36. "Mayor in close race for seat". New Zealand Herald.
  37. ^ Hill, Jonathan (22 November 1999). "Poll Shows Tight Race For Maori Seats". Scoop.co.nz.
New Zealand Opinion polling for general elections in New Zealand
Categories:
Opinion polling for the 1999 New Zealand general election Add topic