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	==Lesser powers==		==Lesser powers==
	While the ]s try to exert their influence over Central Asia to gain a foothold over each other, lesser powers, ], ], ], ] are all playing the great game to further their own interests. ~~Unknown sources claim that the~~ governments of all four have funded the ], an ] affiliated with ]. Kazakhstan itself has also tried to to establish regional hegemony, as demonstrated through the Kazakh government's ] $100 million donation to ] in earthquake aid in December 2006.<ref name=EARTHQUAKE> RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty</ref> Indo-Pakistani rivalry also plays a role.		While the ]s try to exert their influence over Central Asia to gain a foothold over each other, lesser powers, ], ], ], ] are all playing the great game to further their own interests. The governments of all four have funded the ], an ] affiliated with ]. Kazakhstan itself has also tried to to establish regional hegemony, as demonstrated through the Kazakh government's ] $100 million donation to ] in earthquake aid in December 2006.<ref name=EARTHQUAKE> RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty</ref> Indo-Pakistani rivalry also plays a role.

	==Phases==		==Phases==

Revision as of 21:17, 8 February 2007

The New Great Game is the competition between China, Germany, India, Japan, Russia, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States to secure reliable long-term sources of petroleum and natural gas through the construction of oil pipelines in the post-Soviet nations of Central Asia.

The situation is complicated by the mutual desire of the major powers, most of all the United States, to establish military bases in Central Asia for counter-terrorism. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a security organization headed by China and Russia, issued a statement in 2005 calling on the U.S. to establish a timetable for withdrawal of the U.S. military presence in Central Asia. The new administration in Turkmenistan, in power since long time leader Turkmenbashi Saparmurat Niyazov died in late 2006, has the power to greatly influence the direction the Great Game goes. The nuclear program of Iran, strongly opposed by three of the major powers, the U.S., the UK, and Germany, could result in a major regional war. It has largely been allowed to continue through the cooperation and encouragement of Russia, China, North Korea and France.

Lesser powers

While the great powers try to exert their influence over Central Asia to gain a foothold over each other, lesser powers, Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia are all playing the great game to further their own interests. The governments of all four have funded the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, an Islamist terrorist organization affiliated with Al Qaeda. Kazakhstan itself has also tried to to establish regional hegemony, as demonstrated through the Kazakh government's USD $100 million donation to Kyrgyzstan in earthquake aid in December 2006. Indo-Pakistani rivalry also plays a role.

Phases

The new great game has gone through three phases. The first phase began at the end of World War II and lasted until the end of the Cold War with the fall of the Soviet Union. The second phase began with the independence of the Central Asian nations until the color revolutions of the early 2000s opened Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan to democratization and foreign investment. The third and current phase began in May 2005 when the Central Asian governments first openly questioned whether they could trust the British and American governments and three distinct foreign policies emerged among the Central Asian states. Islamist terrorists in Uzbekistan attempted to overthrow the government, but were violently put down by the Karimov administration.

Second phase

Allying with the East

Kyrgyzstan (1991-2005)

Main article: Politics of Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev sought assistance from the United States in 2002 as domestic dissent increased, but received little as his administration failed to demonstrate progress in democratization or human rights. Akayev made Russian an official language, gave Russia a military base in Kant, and increased trade with Russia by 49% in 2002. The Kyrgyz people overthrew President Askar Akayev in the Tulip Revolution in 2005. Kyrgyzstan has since shifted to balancing the interests of Russia and the United States by allowing both of them to have air bases.

Third phase

Allying with the East

Uzbekistan after May 2005

Main article: Politics of Uzbekistan

While the Western world condemned what it initially perceived as an excessive use of force by the Uzbek government in quelling the uprising in Andijan, the Karimov administration received verbal and financial support from China, India, and Russia. The European Union imposed trade and travel sanctions against Uzbekistan on 3 October 2005, almost five months after the initial incident. Karimov ordered U.S. troops to leave the Karshi-Khanabad airbase on 29 July 2005 within six months. The American Bar Association, Winrock International, Central Asian Free Exchange, Global Involvement through Education, Ecumenical Charity Service, Urban Institute, Eurasia Foundation, Freedom House, the International Research and Exchanges Board, Counterpart International, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, the American Council for Collaboration in Education and Language Study, and ACDI/VOCA all left Uzbekistan after they were convicted of various obscure or questionable violations of Uzbek law. On 21 December 2006 Russia gained the right to use the Navoi air base in Uzbekistan in the event of an emergency. China is actively trying to obtain a base in Uzbekistan.

Balancing interests

After the unrest in Andijan, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev and Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov chose to balance their relationships with the West and the East by remaining in the CSTO while pushing for greater political ties with OSCE and NATO. RIA Novosti reported that when the Soviet Union collapsed President Rakhmonov "survived a civil war and kept his post by learning to maneuver between centers of power." President Nazarbayev "quickly carried out the necessary reforms, but retained the continuity of personal power," maintaining Marxist economic policy only nominally. Stephen Blank, a professor at the U.S. Army War College and a regular contributor for Eurasia Net, summed up the Nazarbayev administration's foreign policy as preventing Kazakhstan from becoming "dependent on any single suppler, customer, or investor."

Kazakhstan

Main article: Politics of Kazakhstan

Since independence Kazakhstan has greatly improved ties with Israel, Western Europe, Japan, and South Korea.

Israeli microsatellites used for reconaissance and Kazakh telecommunications are launched from the Baikonur Cosmodrome. Deputy Prime Minister Karim Masimov met with Israeli Vice Premier Shimon Peres in late October. On 29 October 2006 the ministers announced from Jerusalem that the state-owned National Innovation Fund of Kazakhstan would begin investing in the Peace Valley project and other projects in the Middle East. Masimov said, "I came to Israel with a clear message to the nation in Zion from the president, that Kazakhstan is a moderate Muslim state which is interested in being involved in the Middle East. Kazakhstan intends to found political and economic ties with Israel and its neighbors." Masimov mentioned the Dead Sea canal and expressed desire to create a free trade zone. Vice Premier Peres and Masimov agreed to establish an agriculture-school in each country. The NIF has given USD $10 million to Israeli VC fund Vertex. Masmov also met with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who praised Kazakhstan for showing a "beautiful face of Islam. Contemporary, ever-developing Kazakhstan is a perfect example of both economic development and interethnic accord that should be followed by more Muslim states." The Middle East Times reported on 7 November 2006 that earlier that week Masimov noted interest in the infrastructure corridor project between Turkey and Israel and buying the oil refinery in Haifa, Israel which the Israeli Government plans to privatize in 2007.

The Kazakh government launched a campaign to gain support from European countries to allow Kazakhstan to head the OSCE in 2009. Kazakh Foreign Minister Kassym-Jomart Tokayev visited Brussels, Germany from 3-4 October, 2006 and addressed the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee on 3 October in an attempt to gain support among members of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe for Kazakhstan's bid to head the organization in 2009. In his address he discussed the "fierce" competition between the European Union, China, and India to secure energy sources, saying that Kazakhstan is "one of the very few countries capable of boosting its oil production and thus becoming an important alternative energy supplier to global and European markets." He expressed interest in the Burgas-Alexandropoulos and Odesa-Brody-Gdansk pipeline projects, asking the EU for $80 billion in investment from 2006-2021. He also reaffirmed Kazakhstan's desire to join the European Neighbourhood Policy. President Nazarbayev met with Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt, King Albert II of Belgium, and Jean-Claude Juncker, the Prime Minister of Luxembourg, Secretary General of the EU Council Javier Solana, President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Durao Barroso, EC Commissioner for External Relations and the European Neighbourhood Policy Benita Ferrero-Waldner, President of the European Parliament Josep Borrel-Fouteilles and NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer during a visit to Brussels that began on 23 September 2006. Konstantin Zhigalov, Kazakhstan's Ambassador to Belgium, met with Camille Paulus, the Governor of Antwerp province, Belgium. They discussed Kazakhstan's potential sales of energy and natural gas to Belgium.

Kazakh Prime Minister Daniyal Akhmetov met with South Korean Prime Minister Han Myeong Sook on 23 September, 2006 in Astana and signed several bilateral agreements enhancing economic ties. The Government of South Korea agreed to invest an additional $2 billion in joint projects in the energy, uranium-extraction, construction, transportation, and banking sectors. Akhmetov offered South Korea the option of participating in developing a new type of nuclear reactor. South Korean investors have stakes in more than 300 Kazakhstan-based companies. Han invited President Nazarbayev to visit South Korea in 2007. Han was in Kazakhstan until 24 September. She then traveled to Uzbekistan.

Kyrgyzstan (2005- )

The Legislative Assembly of the Supreme Council appointed Kurmanbek Bakiyev the acting Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan on 24 March 2005 following the ousting, during the Tulip Revolution, of President Akayev. Bakiyev appointed Felix Kulov, who had greater political support in northern Kyrgyzstan among Christian Kyrgyz and Russians, Prime Minister. The Bakiyev-Kulov administration has since pursued a policy of counterbalancing Russian and U.S. interests, allowing Russia to maintain an airbase and the U.S. a military base with which it can conduct operations in Afghanistan. The Russian government has begun transferring military equipment to the Kyrgyz free-of-charge as part of the base deal. Two Mi-24 and two Mi-8 helicopters were given to the Kyrgyz Defense Ministry on 26 December 2006.

Tajikistan

Main article: Politics of Tajikistan

Rakhmonov has allowed Russia to maintain a base in Tajikistan while allowing China to invest in Tajiktelecom, the state-run telephone company, doubling sales of aluminum to Norway, and selling gold, diamonds, and copper to Britain. In return for the base the Russian government has begun to give Tajikistan military equipment free-of-charge, as it is doing in Kyrgyzstan in return for its base there. In November 2006 the Tajik Defense Ministry received two Mi-24 and two Mi-8 helicopters. The Tajik government granted Zarubezhneftegaz, a subsidiary of Russian state-owned oil company Gazprom, two licenses to conduct geological surveys in Tajikistan, a move that usually precedes oil and gas exploration deals, on 29 December 2006. At the same time, the Tajik government agreed to pay nearly twice the 2006 price for natural gas imported from Uzbekistan in 2007, The 2007 price, USD $100 per 1,000 cubic meters, is still significantly lower than international gas prices.

Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes visited Tajikistan in 2002, meeting with members of the Tajik government. The Rahmonov administration agreed to allow the Indian government to establish its first military base outside of India. Farkhor Air Base in Dushanbe, Tajikistan became operational in 2004. The base has been used for counter-terrorism operations against Islamic terrorists in in Central Asia and opening the option of targeted strikes against sites in Pakistan. Professor Stephen Blank has said the base is representative of India's determination in acquiring Central Asian energy through the use of "mega-projects," such as pipelines that would connect Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India and another linking Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. The U.S. has been supportive of these efforts because they hope growing Indian power will counter that of China and Russia.

Tajik President Imomali Rakhmonov and Chinese President Hu Jintao signed several agreements, including a Good Neighborly Friendship and Cooperation Treaty and six agreements outlining economic cooperation, in Beijing, China on 14 January. President Rakhmonov reaffirmed the Tajik government's support for the One China policy and security initiatives aimed at fighting the Three Evils. He plans to stay in China until 21 January while he meets with other officials from the Chinese government.

Neutrality

Turkmenistan

Main article: Politics of Turkmenistan

Turkmenbashi Saparmurat Niyazov pursued a third type of foreign policy closely tied to his domestic policies of Turkmenization. Niyazov, who wished to further his personality cult but feared Russian interference in Turkmenistan's economy and Russification of Turkmen culture, officially declared Turkmenistan a neutral nation. Turkmenistan is the only Central Asian country not to have joined the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the only one not to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and effectively left the Commonwealth of Independent States when Niyazov downgraded Turkmenistan's status in the CIS to associate membership on 26 August 2005. Niyazov's support for the U.S.-led War on Terror, specifically lending Turkmen airspace to Coalition airplanes completing missions in Afghanistan in the 2001 War in Afghanistan, extended only to the degree that it helped him maintain his personality cult and suppress political dissent.

While Turkmenistan did export petroleum to Russia during Niyazov's rule, Niyazov worried about Turkmenistan's economic dependence on Russia. The Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, when construction is completed, will transfer natural gas from Turkmenistan to the Nabucco Pipeline, which will then send it to Austria, Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey. Turkish company GAMA Endustri and Japanese companies Chyoda and Nichimen (now part of Sojitz) built a petroleum processing unit in Turkmenistan in 2000. Japanese companies JGC Corporation, ITOCHU, and Nissho Iwai Corporation (now part of Sojitz), and Italian company Basell Technologies built a polypropylene production unit that connected to the processor. Polypropylene has since been sold primarily to Russia, Turkey, Iran, and China. JGC and ITOCHU have offered to expand the plant's production from 90,000 tons to 240,000 tons annually. ITOCHU has also offered to modernize the Seydi petroleum refinery.

Etymology

Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid coined the term the "New Great Game," noting parallels between the original Great Game between the British Empire and the Russian Empire for strategic supremacy in Central Asia in the 19th and early 20th century, and the new friction in the same region between Russia and the United States.

References

Central Asia's other 'Turkmenbashis' The Japan Times
^ Russia secures permission for its military planes to land at Uzbekistan's air base Kyiv Post
Kazakhstan ready to aid Kyrgyz earthquake victims RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty
Scramble for Central Asian bases Asia Times
Aftermath of Andijan: The Challenge of Uzbekistan Institute for Global Engagement
U.S. NGO's Uzbek office accused of breaching tax laws Interfax
^ The New Central Asian Player Transitions Online
Saparmurat Niyazov: A monument to himself RIA Novosti
^ Kazakhstan emerges as investor nation EurasiaNet
Kazakhstan oil fund to invest millions in Israel Globes
Kazakhs seek stronger ties with Israel Jerusalem Post
Kazakhstan may bid for Haifa refinery Middle East Times
Kazakhstan: Foreign Minister Seeks EU Energy Links RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty
Perspectives of Kazakh-Belgian cooperation discussing in Antwerp Gazetakz
President of Kazakhstan arrives in Belgium Gazetakz
Kazakhstan, South Korea Vow To Boost Ties BakuTODAY
Kyrgyz Parliament narrowly fails to pass changes expanding president's powers Kyiv Post
^ Russia transfers four military helicopters to Kyrgyzstan Interfax
Mobilising Tajikistan International War and Peace Reporting
Tajikistan to export 200,000 tons of aluminum to Norway annually RIA Novosti
Kryso Resources forms j-v with Great Basin; raises 1 mln stg through placing Interactive Investor
Gazprom receives exploration licenses in Tajikistan RosBusinessConsulting
Uzbekistan nearly doubles natural gas price for Tajikistan The Daily Star
IAF's base in Tajikistan will be ready by '04 Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies
Tajikistan, China sign Friendship Treaty RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty
China, Tajikistan sign friendship, economic pacts RIA Novosti
Treaty sees greater security cooperation China Daily
CIS: Turkmenistan reduces ties to 'Associate Member' RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty
Turkmenistan's President death leaves nation with power vacuum Nasdaq
Moscow seeks to retain positions in Turkmen gas sector RIA Novosti
Turkmenistan – Japan: 10 years of fruitful co-operation at the leading oil refinery Turkmenistan: Gaz A Complex
The New Great Game: Oil Politics in Central Asia AlterNet

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