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{{short description|Current rise in Earth's average temperature and its effects}} {{Short description|Human-caused changes to climate on Earth}}
{{About|the present-day human-induced rise in global temperatures|natural historical climate trends|Climate variability and change}}
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{{Redirect|Climate change|a broader discussion of climate trends throughout Earth's history|Climate change (general concept)|other uses|}} {{Redirect|Global warming||Climate change (disambiguation)|and|Global warming (disambiguation)}}
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] over the past 50 years.<ref>{{Cite web |title=GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4) |url=https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/index_v4.html |access-date=12 January 2024 |website=NASA}}</ref> The ] has warmed the most, and temperatures on land have generally increased more than ]s.]]
'''Global warming''' is the mainly human-caused rise of the average temperature of the ]'s ] and has been demonstrated by direct ]s and by measurements of various effects of the warming.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2013|p=4|ps =: Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased}}; {{harvnb|EPA|2016|ps=: The U.S. Global Change Research Program, the National Academy of Sciences, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have each independently concluded that warming of the climate system in recent decades is "unequivocal". This conclusion is not drawn from any one source of data but is based on multiple lines of evidence, including three worldwide temperature datasets showing nearly identical warming trends as well as numerous other independent indicators of global warming (e.g. rising sea levels, shrinking Arctic sea ice).}}
]. Natural forces cause some variability, but the 20-year average shows the progressive influence of human activity.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|loc=SPM-7}}</ref>]]
</ref> It is a major aspect of '''climate change''' which, in addition to rising global ],<ref name="AR5 Glossary GW">{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014|page=124 |ps =: Global warming refers to the gradual increase, observed or projected, in global surface temperature, as one of the consequences of radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic emissions. }}; {{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=51}}: "Global warming is defined in this report as an increase in ] averaged over the globe and over a 30-year period. Unless otherwise specified, warming is expressed relative to the period 1850–1900, used as an approximation of pre-industrial temperatures in AR5.".</ref> also includes its effects, such as changes in ].<ref>{{Harvnb|Shaftel|2016|p=}}; {{harvnb|Associated Press, 22 September|2015}}: "The terms global warming and climate change can be used interchangeably. Climate change is more accurate scientifically to describe the various effects of greenhouse gases on the world because it includes extreme weather, storms and changes in rainfall patterns, ocean acidification and sea level.".</ref> While there have been ],<ref name="AR5 WG1 Ch 5">{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch5|2013|pages=389, 399–400|ps =: "5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives: The ] was marked by ... global warming of 4&nbsp;°C to 7&nbsp;°C ..... ] global warming occurred in two main steps from 17.5 to 14.5 ka and 13.0 to 10.0 ka.}}</ref> observed changes since the mid-20th century have been unprecedented in rate and scale.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2013|p=4|ps =: Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=54|ps=: The abundant empirical evidence of the unprecedented rate and global scale of impact of human influence on the Earth System (Steffen et al., 2016; Waters et al., 2016) has led many scientists to call for an acknowledgement that the Earth has entered a new geological epoch: the Anthropocene.}}</ref>
<!--Please do not change the content in the lead section without first proposing the change on the talk page, and please limit overall length to under 500 words.-->
Present-day '''climate change''' includes both '''global warming'''—the ongoing increase in ]—and its wider effects on ]. ] also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate. The current rise in global temperatures is ], especially ] burning since the ].<ref>{{harvnb|Forster|Smith|Walsh|Lamb|2024|p=2626}}: "The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 °C, of which 1.19 °C was human-induced."</ref><ref name=Lynas_2021>{{cite journal |last1=Lynas |first1=Mark |last2=Houlton |first2=Benjamin Z. |last3=Perry |first3=Simon |title=Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature |journal=] |date=19 October 2021 |volume=16 |issue=11 |page=114005 |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966 |bibcode=2021ERL....16k4005L |s2cid=239032360 |doi-access=free |issn = 1748-9326}}</ref> Fossil fuel use, ], and some ] and ] practices release ]es.<ref name="Our World in Data-2020">{{harvnb|Our World in Data, 18 September|2020}}</ref> These gases ] that the Earth ] after it warms from ], warming the lower atmosphere. ], the primary greenhouse gas driving global warming, ] and is at levels not seen for millions of years.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=67}}: "Concentrations of {{CO2}}, methane ({{CH4}}), and nitrous oxide ({{N2O}}) have increased to levels unprecedented in at least 800,000 years, and there is high confidence that current {{CO2}} concentrations have not been experienced for at least 2 million years."</ref>


Climate change has an increasingly large ]. ], while ]s and ]s are becoming more common.<ref>
, .</ref>]]
* {{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019|p=7}}: "Since the pre-industrial period, the land surface air temperature has risen nearly twice as much as the global average temperature (high confidence). Climate change... contributed to desertification and land degradation in many regions (high confidence)."
* {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 SPM|2022|p=9}}: "Observed increases in areas burned by wildfires have been attributed to human-induced climate change in some regions (medium to high confidence)"</ref> ] has contributed to thawing ], ] and ].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019|p=16}}: "Over the last decades, global warming has led to widespread shrinking of the cryosphere, with mass loss from ice sheets and glaciers (very high confidence), reductions in snow cover (high confidence) and Arctic sea ice extent and thickness (very high confidence), and increased permafrost temperature (very high confidence)."</ref> Higher temperatures are also causing ], droughts, and other ].<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch11|2021|p=1517}}</ref> Rapid environmental change in ], ]s, and ] is forcing many species to relocate or ].<ref>{{cite web|author=EPA|date=19 January 2017|title=Climate Impacts on Ecosystems|url=https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-ecosystems_.html#Extinction|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180127185656/https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-ecosystems_.html#Extinction|archive-date=27 January 2018|access-date=5 February 2019|quote=Mountain and arctic ecosystems and species are particularly sensitive to climate change... As ocean temperatures warm and the acidity of the ocean increases, bleaching and coral die-offs are likely to become more frequent.}}</ref> Even if efforts to minimize future warming are successful, some effects will continue for centuries. These include ], ] and ].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=64}}: "Sustained net zero anthropogenic emissions of {{CO2}} and declining net anthropogenic non-{{CO2}} radiative forcing over a multi-decade period would halt anthropogenic global warming over that period, although it would not halt sea level rise or many other aspects of climate system adjustment."</ref>


Climate change ] with increased ], extreme heat, increased ] and ] scarcity, more disease, and ]. ] and conflict can also be a result.<ref>
The ] (IPCC) concluded that, "human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of observed warming since the mid-20th century".{{Sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=53}} These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of major nations and are ].<ref>{{harvnb|Gleick, 7 January|2017}};
* {{harvnb|Cattaneo|Beine|Fröhlich|Kniveton|2019}}
{{cite web|url=https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/|title=Scientific Consensus: Earth's Climate is Warming|last=|first=|date=|work=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet|publisher=]|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200328082109/https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/|archive-date=28 March 2020|access-date=29 March 2020|ref=harv}}</ref> The largest ] influence has been the emission of ]es such as ], ], and ]. ] burning is the principal source of these gases, with ] emissions and ] also playing significant roles.<ref name=":2" />
* {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 SPM|2022|p=15}}
* {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 Technical Summary|2022|p=53}}</ref> The ] calls climate change one of the biggest threats to ] in the 21st century.<ref name=WHO_Nov_2023>{{harvnb|WHO, Nov|2023}}</ref> Societies and ecosystems will experience more severe risks without ].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 SPM|2022|p=19}}</ref> ] through efforts like ] measures or ] partially reduces climate change risks, although some limits to ] have already been reached.<ref>
* {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 SPM|2022|pp=21–26}}
* {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 Ch16|2022|p=2504}}
* {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 SYR SPM|2023|pp=8–9}}: "Effectiveness<sup>15</sup> of adaptation in reducing climate risks<sup>16</sup> is documented for specific contexts, sectors and regions (high confidence) ... Soft limits to adaptation are currently being experienced by small-scale farmers and households along some low-lying coastal areas (medium confidence) resulting from financial, governance, institutional and policy constraints (high confidence). Some tropical, coastal, polar and mountain ecosystems have reached hard adaptation limits (high confidence). Adaptation does not prevent all losses and damages, even with effective adaptation and before reaching soft and hard limits (high confidence)."</ref> Poorer communities are responsible for ], yet have the least ability to adapt and are most ].<ref>{{cite web |last1=Tietjen |first1=Bethany |title=Loss and damage: Who is responsible when climate change harms the world's poorest countries? |url=https://theconversation.com/loss-and-damage-who-is-responsible-when-climate-change-harms-the-worlds-poorest-countries-192070 |website=] |access-date=30 August 2023 |date=2 November 2022}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/ |publisher=] |access-date=30 August 2023 |date=27 February 2022}}</ref>
<noinclude>{{multiple image
| perrow = 1 / 2
| total_width = 310
| image1 = Bobcat Fire, Los Angeles, San Gabriel Mountains.jpg
| alt1 = Bobcat Fire in Monrovia, CA, September 10, 2020
| image2 = Bleached colony of Acropora coral.jpg
| alt2 = Bleached colony of Acropora coral
| image4 = California Drought Dry Lakebed 2009.jpg
| alt4 = A dry lakebed in California, which is experiencing its worst megadrought in 1,200 years.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/water-cutbacks-california-6-million-people-drought/ |title=California is rationing water amid its worst drought in 1,200 years |first=Irina |last=Ivanova |publisher=] |date=June 2, 2022}}</ref>
| footer = Examples of some ]: ] intensified by heat and drought, ] occurring more often due to ]s, and worsening ]s compromising water supplies.
}}
</noinclude>
Many climate change impacts have been observed in the first decades of the 21st century, with 2023 the warmest on record at +{{convert|1.48|C-change}} since regular tracking began in 1850.<ref>{{cite web |title=2023 confirmed as world's hottest year on record |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67861954 |publisher=] |first1=Mark |last1=Poynting |first2=Erwan |last2=Rivault |access-date=13 January 2024 |date=10 January 2024}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=21 April 2023 |title=Human, economic, environmental toll of climate change on the rise: WMO|url=https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/04/1135852 |access-date=11 April 2024 |publisher=United Nations |language=en}}</ref> Additional warming will increase these impacts and can trigger ], such as melting all of the ].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=71}}</ref> Under the 2015 ], nations collectively agreed to keep warming "well under 2&nbsp;°C". However, with pledges made under the Agreement, global warming would still reach about {{convert|2.8|C-change}} by the end of the century.<ref name="UNEP2024">{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2024|p=XVIII}}: "The full implementation and continuation of the level of mitigation effort implied by unconditional or conditional NDC scenarios lower these projections to 2.8&nbsp;°C (range: 1.9–3.7) and 2.6&nbsp;°C (range: 1.9–3.6), respectively. All with at least a 66 per cent chance."</ref> Limiting warming to 1.5&nbsp;°C would require halving emissions by 2030 and achieving ] emissions by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|pp=95–96}}: "In model pathways with no or limited overshoot of 1.5&nbsp;°C, global net anthropogenic {{CO2}} emissions decline by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 (40–60% interquartile range), reaching net zero around 2050 (2045–2055 interquartile range)"</ref><ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018|loc=SPM C.3|p=17}}: "All pathways that limit global warming to 1.5&nbsp;°C with limited or no overshoot project the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) on the order of 100–1000 Gt{{CO2}} over the 21st century. CDR would be used to compensate for residual emissions and, in most cases, achieve net negative emissions to return global warming to 1.5&nbsp;°C following a peak (high confidence). CDR deployment of several hundreds of Gt{{CO2}} is subject to multiple feasibility and sustainability constraints (high confidence)."</ref>


] by ] and switching to energy sources that do not produce significant carbon pollution. These energy sources include ], ], ], and ].<ref>
] of about 0.9 W/m<sup>2</sup>.<ref>{{cite journal|title=Insights into Earth's Energy Imbalance from Multiple Sources|author=Kevin E. Trenberth and John T. Fasullo|journal=Journal of Climate|date=5 October 2016|volume=29|issue=20|pages=7495–7505|doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0339.1|bibcode=2016JCli...29.7495T|ref=harv}}</ref>]]
* {{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3 Annex III|2014|p=1335}}
* {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3 Summary for Policymakers|2022|pp=24–25}}
* {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3 Technical Summary|2022|p=89}}</ref> Cleanly generated electricity can replace fossil fuels for ], ], and running industrial processes.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3 Technical Summary|2022|p=84}}: "Stringent emissions reductions at the level required for 2°C or 1.5°C are achieved through the increased electrification of buildings, transport, and industry, consequently all pathways entail increased electricity generation (high confidence)."</ref> Carbon can also be ], for instance by ] and farming with methods that ].<ref>
* {{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=18}}
* {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3 Summary for Policymakers|2022|pp=24–25}}
* {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3 Technical Summary|2022|p=114}}</ref>


{{TOC level|3}} <!--Please do not uncollapse the TOC without prior discussion (see discussion on talk page from May 2022).-->
The ] include ], regional changes in precipitation, more frequent ] events such as ]s, and ].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Technical Summary|2014|pp=44–46}}; {{harvnb|D'Odorico|Bhattachan|Davis|Ravi|2013}}.</ref> Surface temperature increases are ], which have contributed to the ], ], and ]. Overall, higher temperatures bring more rain and snowfall, but for some regions ]s and ]s increase instead.<ref>{{harvnb|National Geographic|2019}}; {{harvnb|NPR|2010}}.</ref> Climate change threatens to diminish ], ], and ] may flood coastal infrastructure.<ref>
{{Harvnb|Campbella|Vermeulen|Aggarwa|Corner-Dolloff|2016|p=}}; {{Harvnb|National Research Council|2012|pp=26–27}}.</ref> Environmental impacts include the ] or relocation of many species as their ] change, most immediately in ], ], and the ].<ref name="EPA2017ecosystems">{{cite web|url=https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-ecosystems_.html#Extinction|title=Climate Impacts on Ecosystems|author=EPA|date=19 January 2017|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180127185656/https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-ecosystems_.html#Extinction|archive-date=27 January 2018|access-date=5 February 2019|ref=harv}}</ref> Some impacts, such as loss of snow cover, increased ], and melting ], cause ] that further increase the rate of global warming.<ref name="Met Office 2016" /> ] caused by increased {{CO2}} levels is commonly grouped with these effects even though it is not driven by temperature.{{Citation needed|date=April 2020}}


== Terminology ==<!--An excerpt of this section has been added to ] in September 2022.-->
] efforts to address global warming include the development and deployment of ], policies to reduce fossil fuel emissions, ], ], as well as the development of potential ] technologies. Societies and governments are also working to ], including improved ], better ], and the development of more resistant crops.


Before the 1980s it was unclear whether the warming effect of ] was stronger than the ] in ]. Scientists used the term ''inadvertent climate modification'' to refer to human impacts on the climate at this time.<ref name="Conway 2008">{{harvnb|NASA, 5 December|2008}}.</ref> In the 1980s, the terms ''global warming'' and ''climate change'' became more common, often being used interchangeably.<ref>{{harvnb|NASA, 7 July|2020}}</ref><ref>{{Harvnb|Shaftel|2016}}: "{{thinsp}}'Climate change' and 'global warming' are often used interchangeably but have distinct meanings.&nbsp;... Global warming refers to the upward temperature trend across the entire Earth since the early 20th century&nbsp;... Climate change refers to a broad range of global phenomena&nbsp;... include the increased temperature trends described by global warming."</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Associated Press, 22 September|2015}}: "The terms global warming and climate change can be used interchangeably. Climate change is more accurate scientifically to describe the various effects of greenhouse gases on the world because it includes extreme weather, storms and changes in rainfall patterns, ocean acidification and sea level.".</ref> Scientifically, ''global warming'' refers only to increased surface warming, while ''climate change'' describes both global warming and its effects on Earth's ], such as precipitation changes.<ref name="Conway 2008"/>
Countries work together on climate change under the umbrella of the ] (UNFCCC), which has near-universal membership. The ultimate goal of the convention is to "prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system".<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC|1992}}, Article 2, "Objective".</ref> Although the parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that ] are required and that global warming should be limited to well below {{convert|2|C-change|F-change|1}} in the ] of 2016,<ref>, in {{harvnb|UNFCCC: Cancun|2010}}: "deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required according to science, and as documented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with a view to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the increase in global average temperature below {{val|2|u=°C}} above preindustrial levels"; {{Harvnb|The Guardian, 12 December|2015|p=}}; {{harvnb|Paris Agreement|2015}}, Article 2, Section 1(a).</ref> the Earth's average surface temperature has already increased by about half this threshold.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=51}}.</ref> With current policies and pledges, global warming by the end of the century is expected to reach just over 2&nbsp;°C to 4&nbsp;°C, depending on how ] the climate is to emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|Climate Action Tracker|2019|p=1}}; {{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|p=27}}.</ref> The IPCC has stressed the need to keep global warming below {{Convert|1.5|C-change}} compared to pre-industrial levels in order to avoid irreversible impacts.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=7|ps=:Future climate-related risks (...) are larger if global warming exceeds {{Convert|1.5|C-change}} before returning to that level by 2100 than if global warming gradually stabilizes at 1.5°C. (...) Some impacts may be long-lasting or irreversible, such as the loss of some ecosystems (high confidence).}}</ref> At the current greenhouse gas (GHG) emission rate, the ] for staying below {{Convert|1.5|C-change}} would be exhausted by 2028.<ref>{{harvnb|Mercator Institute|2020}}; {{Harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=96|ps=: This assessment suggests a remaining budget of about 420 Gt{{CO2}} for a twothirds chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, and of about 580 Gt{{CO2}} for an even chance (medium confidence)}}.</ref>
{{TOC limit|3}}


''Climate change'' can also be used more broadly to include ] that have happened throughout Earth's history.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014|p=120}}: "Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use."</ref> ''Global warming''—used as early as 1975<ref name=Science_Broecker_19750808>{{cite journal |last1=Broecker |first1=Wallace S. |title=Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming? |journal=] |date=8 August 1975 |volume=189 |issue=4201 |pages=460–463 |doi=10.1126/science.189.4201.460 |jstor=1740491 |pmid=17781884 |bibcode=1975Sci...189..460B |s2cid=16702835 |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/1740491}}</ref>—became the more popular term after ] climate scientist ] used it in his 1988 testimony in the ].<ref name="history.aip.org2">{{harvnb|Weart "The Public and Climate Change: The Summer of 1988"}}, .</ref> Since the 2000s, ''climate change'' has increased usage.<ref>{{harvnb|Joo|Kim|Do|Lineman|2015}}.</ref> Various scientists, politicians and media may use the terms '']'' or '']'' to talk about climate change, and may use the term ''global heating'' instead of ''global warming''.<ref>{{harvnb|Hodder|Martin|2009}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|BBC Science Focus Magazine, 3 February|2020}}</ref>
== Observed temperature rise ==
{{Main|Temperature record of the past 1000 years|Instrumental temperature record}}
]
]
Multiple independently produced instrumental datasets confirm that the 2009–2018 decade was {{convert|0.93 ± 0.07|C-change}} warmer than the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900).<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=4}}; {{harvnb|WMO|2019|p=6}}.</ref> Currently, surface temperatures are rising by about {{convert|0.2|C-change}} per decade.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=81}}.</ref> Since 1950, the number of cold days and nights have decreased, and the number of warm days and nights have increased.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch2|2013|p=162}}.</ref> Historical patterns of warming and cooling, like the ] and the ], were not as synchronous as current warming, but may have reached temperatures as high as those of the late-20th century in a limited set of regions.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch5|2013|p=386}}; {{harvnb|Neukom|Steiger|Gómez-Navarro|Wang|2019}}.</ref> The observed rise in temperature and {{CO2}} concentrations have been so rapid that even ] that took place in Earth's history do not approach current rates.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=54}}.</ref>


== Global temperature rise ==
] show that natural variations offset the early effects of the ], so there was little net warming between the 18th century and the mid-19th century,<ref name="SR15 Ch1 p57">{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=57|ps =: This report adopts the 51-year reference period, 1850–1900 inclusive, assessed as an approximation of pre-industrial levels in AR5 .... Temperatures rose by 0.0&nbsp;°C–0.2&nbsp;°C from 1720–1800 to 1850–1900 (Hawkins et al., 2017) }}; {{harvnb|Hawkins|Ortega|Suckling|Schurer|2017|p=1844}}: "The period after 1800 is influenced by the Dalton Minimum in solar activity and the large eruptions of an unlocated volcano in 1808/09, Tambora (1815; Raible et al. 2016), and several others in the 1820s and 1830s. In addition, greenhouse gas concentrations had already increased slightly by this time .... The 1720–1800 period is most suitable to be defined as preindustrial in physical terms ... The 1850–1900 period is a reasonable pragmatic surrogate for preindustrial global mean temperature."</ref> when thermometer records began to provide global coverage.<ref name="AR5 WG1 SPM p4-5">{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2013|pp=4–5|ps =: "Global-scale observations from the instrumental era began in the mid-19th century for temperature and other variables ... the period 1880 to 2012 ... multiple independently produced datasets exist."}}</ref> The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has adopted the baseline reference period 1850–1900 as an approximation of pre-industrial global mean surface temperature.<ref name="SR15 Ch1 p57" />
{{Further|Global surface temperature}}


=== Temperatures prior to present-day global warming ===
The warming evident in the instrumental temperature record is consistent with a wide range of observations, documented by many independent scientific groups.<ref>{{harvnb|Kennedy|Thorne|Peterson|Ruedy|2010|p=S26}}. Figure 2.5 shows various graphs.</ref> Although the most common measure of global warming is the increase in the near-surface atmospheric temperature, over 90% of the additional energy in the climate system over the last 50 years has been stored in the ocean, warming it.<ref name="ocean heat absorption">
{{Main|Climate variability and change|Temperature record of the last 2,000 years|Paleoclimatology}}
{{cite web |ref = harv
] reconstruction over the last 2000 years using proxy data from tree rings, corals, and ice cores in blue.<ref>{{harvnb|Neukom|Barboza|Erb|Shi|2019b}}.</ref> Directly observed data is in red.<ref name="nasa temperatures">{{cite web |title=Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change |url=https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/ |access-date=23 February 2020 |publisher=]}}</ref>]]
|title=Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content
Over the last few million years the climate cycled through ]. One of the hotter periods was the ], around 125,000 years ago, where temperatures were between 0.5&nbsp;°C and 1.5&nbsp;°C warmer than before the start of global warming.{{sfn|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch2|2021|pp=294, 296}} This period saw sea levels 5 to 10 metres higher than today. The most ] 20,000 years ago was some 5–7&nbsp;°C colder. This period has sea levels that were over {{convert|125|m|ft}} lower than today.{{sfn|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch2|2021|p=366}}
|publisher=NOAA
|year=2018
|url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190212110601/https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content
|archive-date=12 February 2019
|url-status=live
|access-date=20 February 2019
}}</ref> The remainder of the additional energy has melted ice and warmed the ]s and the ].<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch3|2013|p=257}}: "Ocean warming dominates the global energy change inventory. Warming of the ocean accounts for about 93% of the increase in the Earth's energy inventory between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence), with warming of the upper (0 to 700 m) ocean accounting for about 64% of the total.</ref> The ocean heat uptake drives thermal expansion which has contributed to observed ].<ref>{{harvnb|Cazenave|Dieng|Meyssignac|von Schuckmann|2014}}.</ref> Further indicators of climate change include an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation, melting of snow and land ice and increased ].<ref>{{harvnb|Kennedy|Thorne|Peterson|Ruedy|2010|pp=S26, S59-S60}}; {{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 1|2017|p=35}}.</ref> Flora and fauna also portray behaviour consistent with warming, such as the earlier ] of spring events,<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2 Summary for Policymakers|2007}}, Part B: "Current knowledge about observed impacts of climate change on the natural and human environment".</ref> such as the ] of plants.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch1|2007|loc= Sec. 1.3.5.1: "Changes in phenology"}}, p. 99.</ref>


Temperatures stabilized in the current interglacial period beginning ].<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Marcott |first1=S. A. |last2=Shakun |first2=J. D. |last3=Clark |first3=P. U. |last4=Mix |first4=A. C. |title=A reconstruction of regional and global temperature for the past 11,300 years |journal=] |year=2013 |volume=339 |issue=6124 |pages=1198–1201 |doi=10.1126/science.1228026|pmid=23471405 |bibcode=2013Sci...339.1198M }}</ref> This period also saw the start of agriculture.{{sfn|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch2|2021|p=296}} Historical patterns of warming and cooling, like the ] and the ], did not occur at the same time across different regions. Temperatures may have reached as high as those of the late 20th century in a limited set of regions.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch5|2013|p=386}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Neukom|Steiger|Gómez-Navarro|Wang|2019a}}</ref> Climate information for that period comes from ], such as trees and ]s.<ref name="SR15 Ch1 p57">{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=57}}: "This report adopts the 51-year reference period, 1850–1900 inclusive, assessed as an approximation of pre-industrial levels in AR5&nbsp;... Temperatures rose by 0.0&nbsp;°C–0.2&nbsp;°C from 1720–1800 to 1850–1900"</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Hawkins|Ortega|Suckling|Schurer|2017|p=1844}}</ref>
=== Regional trends ===
Global warming refers to global averages, with the amount of warming varying by region. Since the pre-industrial period, global average land temperatures have increased almost twice as fast as global average temperatures.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=7}}.</ref> This is due to the larger ] of oceans and because oceans lose more heat by ].<ref>{{Harvnb|Sutton|Dong|Gregory|2007}}.</ref> Patterns of warming are independent of the locations of greenhouse gas emissions because the gases persist long enough to diffuse across the planet; however, localized black carbon deposits on snow and ice do contribute to Arctic warming.<ref>{{harvnb|United States Environmental Protection Agency|2016|p=5|ps =: "Black carbon that is deposited on snow and ice darkens those surfaces and decreases their reflectivity (albedo). This is known as the snow/ice albedo effect. This effect results in the increased absorption of radiation that accelerates melting."}}</ref>


=== Warming since the Industrial Revolution ===
The Northern Hemisphere and North Pole have warmed much faster than the South Pole and Southern Hemisphere. The Northern Hemisphere not only has much more land, but also more snow area and sea ice, because of how the land masses are arranged around the ]. As these surfaces flip from being reflective to dark after the ice has melted, they start absorbing more heat. The Southern Hemisphere already had little sea ice in summer before it started warming.<ref>{{harvnb|NOAA, 10 July|2011}}.</ref> ] temperatures have increased and are predicted to continue to increase during this century at over ].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013|p=1062}}; {{harvnb|Cohen|Screen|Furtado|Barlow|2014}}.</ref> As the temperature difference between the Arctic and the equator decreases, ocean currents that are driven by that temperature difference, like the ], weaken.<ref>{{harvnb|NASA, 12 September|2018|p=}}: "We are seeing a major shift in the circulation in the North Atlantic, likely related to a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)", said Pershing. "One of the side effects of a weaker AMOC is that the Gulf Stream shifts northward and the cold current flowing into the Gulf of Maine gets weaker. This means we get more warmer water pushing into the Gulf."</ref>
]
] during recent decades as the oceans absorb over 90% of the ].<ref name=NOAA_NASA_OHC_1957_>''Top 700 meters:'' {{cite web |last1=Lindsey |first1=Rebecca |last2=Dahlman |first2=Luann |title=Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content |url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content |website=climate.gov |publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) |archive-url=https://archive.today/20231029171303/https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content |archive-date=29 October 2023 |date=6 September 2023 |url-status=live }} ● ''Top 2000 meters:'' {{cite web |title=Ocean Warming / Latest Measurement: December 2022 / 345 (± 2) zettajoules since 1955 |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/ |website=NASA.gov |publisher=National Aeronautics and Space Administration |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231020033606/https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/ |archive-date=20 October 2023 |url-status=live}}</ref>]]
Around 1850 ] records began to provide global coverage.<ref name="AR5 WG1 SPM p4-5">{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2013|pp=4–5}}: "Global-scale observations from the instrumental era began in the mid-19th century for temperature and other variables&nbsp;... the period 1880 to 2012&nbsp;... multiple independently produced datasets exist."</ref>
Between the 18th century and 1970 there was little net warming, as the warming impact of greenhouse gas emissions was offset by cooling from ] emissions. Sulfur dioxide causes ], but it also produces ] aerosols in the atmosphere, which reflect sunlight and cause ]. After 1970, the increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases and controls on sulfur pollution led to a marked increase in temperature.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/12/26/global-warming-accelerating-climate-change/ |title=Is climate change speeding up? Here's what the science says. |last1=Mooney |first1=Chris | last2=Osaka |first2=Shannon |date=26 December 2023 |newspaper=The Washington Post |access-date=18 January 2024}}</ref><ref name="NASA2007">{{cite news |date=15 March 2007 |title=Global 'Sunscreen' Has Likely Thinned, Report NASA Scientists |url=http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2007/aerosol_dimming.html |publisher=]}}</ref><ref name="Quaas2022" />
]
Ongoing changes in climate have had no precedent for several thousand years.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=43}}</ref> Multiple independent datasets all show worldwide increases in surface temperature,<ref>{{harvnb|EPA|2016}}: "The U.S. Global Change Research Program, the National Academy of Sciences, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have each independently concluded that warming of the climate system in recent decades is "unequivocal". This conclusion is not drawn from any one source of data but is based on multiple lines of evidence, including three worldwide temperature datasets showing nearly identical warming trends as well as numerous other independent indicators of global warming (e.g. rising sea levels, shrinking Arctic sea ice)."</ref> at a rate of around 0.2&nbsp;°C per decade.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=81}}.</ref> The 2014–2023 decade warmed to an average 1.19&nbsp;°C compared to the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900).<ref>{{harvnb|Forster|Smith|Walsh|Lamb|2024|p=2626}}</ref> Not every single year was warmer than the last: internal ] processes can make any year 0.2&nbsp;°C warmer or colder than the average.<ref name="Samset2020">{{cite journal |last1=Samset |first1=B. H. |last2=Fuglestvedt |first2=J. S. |last3=Lund |first3=M. T. |title=Delayed emergence of a global temperature response after emission mitigation |journal=Nature Communications |date=7 July 2020 |volume=11 |issue=1 |page=3261 |doi=10.1038/s41467-020-17001-1 |pmid=32636367 |pmc=7341748 |bibcode=2020NatCo..11.3261S |quote=At the time of writing, that translated into 2035–2045, where the delay was mostly due to the impacts of the around 0.2 °C of natural, interannual variability of global mean surface air temperature |hdl=11250/2771093 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> From 1998 to 2013, negative phases of two such processes, ]<ref name="SeipGrønWang2023PacificDecadalOscillation">{{Cite journal |last1=Seip |first1=Knut L. |last2=Grøn |first2=ø. |last3=Wang |first3=H. |date=31 August 2023 |title=Global lead-lag changes between climate variability series coincide with major phase shifts in the Pacific decadal oscillation |journal=] |volume=154 |issue=3–4 |language=en |doi=10.1007/s00704-023-04617-8 |issn=0177-798X |pages=1137–1149 |bibcode=2023ThApC.154.1137S |s2cid=261438532 |doi-access=free |hdl=11250/3088837 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> and ]<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Yao |first1=Shuai-Lei |last2=Huang |first2=Gang |last3=Wu |first3=Ren-Guang |last4=Qu |first4=Xia |date=January 2016 |title=The global warming hiatus—a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation |url=http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-014-1358-x |journal=] |language=en |volume=123 |issue=1–2 |pages=349–360 |doi=10.1007/s00704-014-1358-x |bibcode=2016ThApC.123..349Y |s2cid=123602825 |issn=0177-798X |access-date=20 September 2023}}</ref> caused a short slower period of warming called the "]".<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Xie |first1=Shang-Ping |last2=Kosaka |first2=Yu |date=June 2017 |title=What Caused the Global Surface Warming Hiatus of 1998–2013? |url=http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40641-017-0063-0 |journal=Current Climate Change Reports |language=en |volume=3 |issue=2 |pages=128–140 |doi=10.1007/s40641-017-0063-0 |bibcode=2017CCCR....3..128X |s2cid=133522627 |issn=2198-6061 |access-date=20 September 2023}}</ref> After the "hiatus", the opposite occurred, with years like 2023 exhibiting temperatures well above even the recent average.<ref name="Copernicus2023">{{Cite web |date=21 November 2023 |title=Global temperature exceeds 2&nbsp;°C above pre-industrial average on 17 November |url=https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-temperature-exceeds-2degc-above-pre-industrial-average-17-november |website=] |access-date=31 January 2024 |quote=While exceeding the 2&nbsp;°C threshold for a number of days does not mean that we have breached the Paris Agreement targets, the more often that we exceed this threshold, the more serious the cumulative effects of these breaches will become.}}</ref> This is why the temperature change is defined in terms of a 20-year average, which reduces the noise of hot and cold years and decadal climate patterns, and detects the long-term signal.<ref name="IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM">IPCC, 2021: . In: . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, New York, US, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.</ref>{{rp|5}}<ref>{{Cite web |last=McGrath |first=Matt |date=17 May 2023 |title=Global warming set to break key 1.5C limit for first time |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65602293 |website=] |access-date=31 January 2024 |quote=The researchers stress that temperatures would have to stay at or above 1.5C for 20 years to be able to say the Paris agreement threshold had been passed. }}</ref>


A wide range of other observations reinforce the evidence of warming.<ref>{{harvnb|Kennedy|Thorne|Peterson|Ruedy|2010|p=S26}}. Figure 2.5.</ref>{{sfn|Loeb et al.|2021}} The upper atmosphere is cooling, because ]es are trapping heat near the Earth's surface, and so less heat is radiating into space.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/GlobalWarming |title=Global Warming |date=3 June 2010 |publisher=] |access-date=11 September 2020 |quote=Satellite measurements show warming in the troposphere but cooling in the stratosphere. This vertical pattern is consistent with global warming due to increasing greenhouse gases but inconsistent with warming from natural causes.}}</ref> Warming reduces average snow cover and ]. At the same time, warming also causes ], leading to more ], more and heavier ].<ref>{{harvnb|Kennedy|Thorne|Peterson|Ruedy|2010|pp=S26, S59–S60}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 1|2017|p=35}}</ref> Plants are ] earlier in spring, and thousands of animal species have been permanently moving to cooler areas.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022|pp=257–260}}</ref>
=== Warmer and colder years ===
Although record-breaking years attract considerable media attention, individual years are less significant than the overall global surface temperature which are subject to short-term fluctuations that overlie long-term trends.<ref>{{Harvnb|Sévellec|Drijfhout|2018|p=}}; {{Harvnb|Mooney|2018|p=}}.</ref> An example of such an episode is the slower rate of surface temperature increase from 1998 to 2012, which was described as the ].<ref>{{Harvnb|England|McGregor|Spence|Meehl|2014|p=}}; {{Harvnb|Knight|Kenney|Folland|Harris|2009|p=}}.</ref> Throughout this period, ocean heat storage continued to progress steadily upwards, and in subsequent years, surface temperatures have spiked upwards. The slower pace of warming can be attributed to a combination of natural fluctuations, reduced solar activity, and increased reflection sunlight of by particles from volcanic eruptions.<ref>{{Harvnb|Lindsey|2018|p=}}.</ref>


==== Differences by region ====
== Physical drivers of recent climate change ==
Different regions of the world ]. The pattern is independent of where greenhouse gases are emitted, because the gases persist long enough to diffuse across the planet. Since the pre-industrial period, the average surface temperature over land regions has increased almost twice as fast as the global average surface temperature.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=7}}</ref> This is because oceans lose more heat by ] and ].<ref>{{Harvnb|Sutton|Dong|Gregory|2007}}.</ref> The thermal energy in the global climate system has grown with only brief pauses since at least 1970, and over 90% of this extra energy has been ].<ref name="ocean heat absorption">{{cite web|title=Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content |newspaper=Noaa Climate.gov |publisher=] |year=2018 |url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190212110601/https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content|archive-date=12 February 2019 |url-status=live|access-date=20 February 2019}}</ref><ref name="Harvipccar5">{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch3|2013|p=257}}: "] dominates the global energy change inventory. Warming of the ocean accounts for about 93% of the increase in the Earth's energy inventory between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence), with warming of the upper (0 to 700 m) ocean accounting for about 64% of the total.</ref> The rest has heated the ], melted ice, and warmed the continents.<ref name=EarthSysSciData_20200907>{{cite journal |last1=von Schuckman |first1=K. |last2=Cheng |first2=L. |last3=Palmer |first3=M. D. |last4=Hansen |first4=J. |last5=Tassone |first5=C. |last6=Aich |first6=V. |last7=Adusumilli |first7=S. |last8=Beltrami |first8=H. |last9=Boyer |first9=T. |last10=Cuesta-Valero |first10=F. J. |display-authors=4 |title=Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go? |journal=Earth System Science Data |date=7 September 2020 |doi=10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020 |doi-access=free |url=https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/2013/2020/ |volume=12 |issue=3 |pages=2013–2041|bibcode=2020ESSD...12.2013V |hdl=20.500.11850/443809 |hdl-access=free }}</ref>
] of different contributors to climate change in 2011, as reported in the ].]]
{{Main|Attribution of recent climate change}}


The ] and the ] have warmed much faster than the ] and ]. The Northern Hemisphere not only has much more land, but also more seasonal snow cover and ]. As these surfaces flip from reflecting a lot of light to being dark after the ice has melted, they start ].<ref>{{harvnb|NOAA, 10 July|2011}}.</ref> Local ] deposits on snow and ice also contribute to Arctic warming.<ref>{{harvnb|United States Environmental Protection Agency|2016|p=5}}: "Black carbon that is deposited on snow and ice darkens those surfaces and decreases their reflectivity (albedo). This is known as the snow/ice albedo effect. This effect results in the increased absorption of radiation that accelerates melting."</ref> Arctic surface temperatures are increasing ] than in the rest of the world.<ref name="3X2021">{{cite web |date=20 May 2021 |title=Arctic warming three times faster than the planet, report warns |url=https://phys.org/news/2021-05-arctic-faster-planet.html |website=] |language=en |access-date=6 October 2022}}</ref><ref name="Rantanen2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Rantanen |first1=Mika |last2=Karpechko |first2=Alexey Yu |last3=Lipponen |first3=Antti |last4=Nordling |first4=Kalle |last5=Hyvärinen |first5=Otto |last6=Ruosteenoja |first6=Kimmo |last7=Vihma |first7=Timo |last8=Laaksonen |first8=Ari |date=11 August 2022 |title=The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979 |journal=Communications Earth & Environment |language=en |volume=3 |issue=1 |page=168 |doi=10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3 |s2cid=251498876 |issn=2662-4435|doi-access=free |bibcode=2022ComEE...3..168R |hdl=11250/3115996 |hdl-access=free }}</ref><ref name="4X2021">{{cite web |date=14 December 2021 |title=The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world |url=https://www.science.org/content/article/arctic-warming-four-times-faster-rest-world |language=en |access-date=6 October 2022}}</ref> Melting of ]s near the poles weakens both the ] and the ] limb of ], which further changes the distribution of heat and ] around the globe.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Liu |first1=Wei |last2=Fedorov |first2=Alexey V. |last3=Xie |first3=Shang-Ping |last4=Hu |first4=Shineng |date=26 June 2020 |title=Climate impacts of a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a warming climate |journal=Science Advances |volume=6 |issue=26 |pages=eaaz4876 |doi=10.1126/sciadv.aaz4876 |pmid=32637596 |pmc=7319730 |bibcode=2020SciA....6.4876L }}</ref><ref name="PearceYale3602023">{{cite web |last=Pearce |first=Fred |date=18 April 2023 |title=New Research Sparks Concerns That Ocean Circulation Will Collapse |url=https://e360.yale.edu/features/climate-change-ocean-circulation-collapse-antarctica |language=en |access-date=3 February 2024 }}</ref><ref name="Lee2023">{{Cite journal |last1=Lee |first1=Sang-Ki |last2=Lumpkin |first2=Rick |last3=Gomez |first3=Fabian |last4=Yeager |first4=Stephen |last5=Lopez |first5=Hosmay |last6=Takglis |first6=Filippos |last7=Dong |first7=Shenfu |last8=Aguiar |first8=Wilton |last9=Kim |first9=Dongmin |last10=Baringer |first10=Molly |date=13 March 2023 |title=Human-induced changes in the global meridional overturning circulation are emerging from the Southern Ocean |journal=Communications Earth & Environment |volume=4 |issue=1 |page=69 |doi=10.1038/s43247-023-00727-3 |bibcode=2023ComEE...4...69L |doi-access=free }}</ref><ref name="NOAA2023">{{cite web |date=29 March 2023 |title=NOAA Scientists Detect a Reshaping of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Southern Ocean |url=https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/noaa-scientists-detect-reshaping-of-the-meridional-overturning-circulation-in-southern-ocean/ |publisher=] }}</ref>
By itself, the ] experiences ] which can last for years (such as the ]) to decades or centuries.<ref>{{harvnb|Delworth|Zeng|2012|p=5}}; {{harvnb|Franzke|Barbosa|Blender|Fredriksen|2020}}.</ref> Other changes are caused by an imbalance of energy at the top of the atmosphere: ]. These forcings are "external" to the climate system, but not always external to the Earth.<ref>{{Harvnb|National Research Council|2012|p=9}}.</ref> Examples of external forcings include changes in the composition of the atmosphere (e.g. increased concentrations of ]es), ], ] eruptions, and ] around the Sun.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch10|2013|p=916}}.</ref>


=== Future global temperatures ===
Attribution of climate change is the effort to scientifically show which mechanisms are responsible for observed changes in Earth's climate. First, known internal ] and natural external forcings need to be ruled out. Therefore, a key approach is to use computer modelling of the climate system to determine unique "fingerprints" for all potential causes. By comparing these fingerprints with observed patterns and evolution of climate change, and the observed history of the forcings, the causes of the observed changes can be determined.<ref>{{harvnb|Knutson|2017|p=443}}; {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch10|2013|pp=875–876}}.</ref> For example, solar forcing can be ruled out as major cause because its fingerprint is warming in the entire atmosphere, and only the lower atmosphere has warmed as expected for greenhouse gases.<ref name=":1" /> ] are primarily greenhouse gases, and secondarily land use changes, and aerosols and soot.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2013|pp=13–14}}.</ref>
] multi-model projections of ] changes for the year 2090 relative to the 1850–1900 average. The current trajectory for warming by the end of the century is roughly halfway between these two extremes.<ref name="UNEP2024" /><ref name="Schuur2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Schuur |first1=Edward A. G. |last2=Abbott |first2=Benjamin W. |last3=Commane |first3=Roisin |last4=Ernakovich |first4=Jessica |last5=Euskirchen |first5=Eugenie |last6=Hugelius |first6=Gustaf |last7=Grosse |first7=Guido |last8=Jones |first8=Miriam |last9=Koven |first9=Charlie |last10=Leshyk |first10=Victor |last11=Lawrence |first11=David |last12=Loranty |first12=Michael M. |last13=Mauritz |first13=Marguerite |last14=Olefeldt |first14=David |last15=Natali |first15=Susan |year=2022 |title=Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic |journal=Annual Review of Environment and Resources |volume=47 |pages=343–371 |bibcode=2022ARER...47..343S |doi=10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847 |quote="Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3&nbsp;°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement..." |doi-access=free |last16=Rodenhizer |first16=Heidi |last17=Salmon |first17=Verity |last18=Schädel |first18=Christina |last19=Strauss |first19=Jens |last20=Treat |first20=Claire |last21=Turetsky |first21=Merritt}}</ref><ref name="Phiddian2022">{{Cite web |last=Phiddian |first=Ellen |date=5 April 2022 |title=Explainer: IPCC Scenarios |url=https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/explainer-ipcc-scenarios/ |website=] |access-date=30 September 2023 |quote="The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. ], for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3&nbsp;°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. ] predicts 2.5 to 2.9&nbsp;°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1&nbsp;°C.}}</ref>]]
The ] estimates there is an 80% chance that global temperatures will exceed 1.5&nbsp;°C warming for at least one year between 2024 and 2028. The chance of the 5-year average being above 1.5&nbsp;°C is almost half.{{sfn|WMO|2024b|p=2}}

The IPCC expects the 20-year average global temperature to exceed +1.5&nbsp;°C in the early 2030s.<ref>{{Cite web |date=7 August 2021 |title=Climate Change 2021 - The Physical Science Basis |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf#page=955 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240405072633/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf#page=955 |archive-date=5 April 2024 |website=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |id=IPCC AR6 WGI}}</ref> The ] (2021) included projections that by 2100 global warming is very likely to reach 1.0–1.8&nbsp;°C under a ], 2.1–3.5&nbsp;°C under an ],
or 3.3–5.7&nbsp;°C under ].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|p=SPM-17}}</ref> The warming will continue past 2100 in the intermediate and high emission scenarios,<ref name="Meinshausen2011">{{Cite journal |last1=Meinshausen |first1=Malte |last2=Smith |first2=S. J. |last3=Calvin |first3=K. |last4=Daniel |first4=J. S. |last5=Kainuma |first5=M. L. T. |last6=Lamarque |first6=J-F. |last7=Matsumoto |first7=K. |last8=Montzka |first8=S. A. |last9=Raper |first9=S. C. B. |last10=Riahi |first10=K. |last11=Thomson |first11=A. |last12=Velders |first12=G. J. M. |last13=van Vuuren |first13=D.P. P. |year=2011 |title=The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300 |journal=Climatic Change |language=en |volume=109 |issue=1–2 |pages=213–241 |doi=10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z |bibcode=2011ClCh..109..213M |issn=0165-0009|doi-access=free }}</ref><ref name="Lyon2021">{{cite journal |last1=Lyon |first1=Christopher |last2=Saupe |first2=Erin E. |last3=Smith |first3=Christopher J. |last4=Hill |first4=Daniel J. |last5=Beckerman |first5=Andrew P. |last6=Stringer |first6=Lindsay C. |last7=Marchant |first7=Robert |last8=McKay |first8=James |last9=Burke |first9=Ariane |last10=O'Higgins |first10=Paul |last11=Dunhill |first11=Alexander M. |last12=Allen |first12=Bethany J. |last13=Riel-Salvatore |first13=Julien |last14=Aze |first14=Tracy |year=2021 |title=Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100 |journal=Global Change Biology |language=en |volume=28 |issue=2 |pages=349–361 |doi=10.1111/gcb.15871 |issn=1365-2486 |pmid=34558764 |s2cid=237616583 |doi-access=free|hdl=20.500.11850/521222 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> with future projections of global surface temperatures by year 2300 being similar to millions of years ago.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|pp=43–44}}</ref>

The remaining ] for staying beneath certain temperature increases is determined by modelling the carbon cycle and ] to greenhouse gases.<ref>{{harvnb|Rogelj|Forster|Kriegler|Smith|2019}}</ref> According to ], global warming can be kept below 1.5&nbsp;°C with a 50% chance if emissions after 2023 do not exceed 200 gigatonnes of {{CO2}}. This corresponds to around 4 years of current emissions. To stay under 2.0&nbsp;°C, the carbon budget is 900 gigatonnes of {{CO2}}, or 16 years of current emissions.{{sfn|United Nations Environment Programme|2024|pp=XI, XVII}}

== Causes of recent global temperature rise ==
{{Main|Causes of climate change}}
] of global warming that has happened so far. Future ] for long lived drivers like carbon dioxide emissions is not represented. Whiskers on each bar show the possible ].]]

The climate system experiences various cycles on its own which can last for years, decades or even centuries. For example, ] events cause short-term spikes in surface temperature while ] events cause short term cooling.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Brown |first1=Patrick T. |last2=Li |first2=Wenhong |last3=Xie |first3=Shang-Ping |title=Regions of significant influence on unforced global mean surface air temperature variability in climate models: Origin of global temperature variability |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |date=27 January 2015 |volume=120 |issue=2 |pages=480–494 |doi=10.1002/2014JD022576 |doi-access=free |hdl=10161/9564 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> Their relative frequency can affect global temperature trends on a decadal timescale.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Trenberth |first1=Kevin E. |last2=Fasullo |first2=John T. |title=An apparent hiatus in global warming? |journal=Earth's Future |date=December 2013 |volume=1 |issue=1 |pages=19–32 |doi=10.1002/2013EF000165 |bibcode=2013EaFut...1...19T |doi-access=free }}</ref> Other changes are caused by an ] from ].<ref>{{Harvnb|National Research Council|2012|p=9}}</ref> Examples of these include changes in the concentrations of ]es, ], ] eruptions, and ] around the Sun.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch10|2013|p=916}}.</ref>

To determine the human contribution to climate change, unique "fingerprints" for all potential causes are developed and compared with both observed patterns and known internal ].<ref>{{harvnb|Knutson|2017|p=443}}; {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch10|2013|pp=875–876}}</ref> For example, solar forcing—whose fingerprint involves warming the entire atmosphere—is ruled out because only the lower atmosphere has warmed.<ref name="USGCRP-2009" /> Atmospheric aerosols produce a smaller, cooling effect. Other drivers, such as changes in ], are less impactful.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|p=7}}</ref>


=== Greenhouse gases === === Greenhouse gases ===
{{Main|Greenhouse gas|Greenhouse effect|Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere}} {{Main|Greenhouse gas|Greenhouse gas emissions|Greenhouse effect|Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere}}]
Greenhouse gases are transparent to ], and thus allow it to pass through the atmosphere to heat the Earth's surface. The Earth ], and greenhouse gases absorb a portion of it. This absorption slows the rate at which heat escapes into space, trapping heat near the Earth's surface and warming it over time.<ref>{{cite web|title=The Causes of Climate Change|author=NASA |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/causes|website=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet|access-date=8 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190508000022/https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/|archive-date=8 May 2019|url-status=live}}</ref>
Greenhouse gases trap heat radiating from the Earth to space.<ref>{{Cite web
|ref=harv
|title=The Causes of Climate Change
|author=NASA
|url=https://climate.nasa.gov/causes
|website=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet
|access-date=8 May 2019
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190508000022/https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/
|archive-date=8 May 2019
|url-status=live
}}</ref> This heat, in the form of ] radiation, gets ] and ] by these gases in the atmosphere, thus warming the lower atmosphere and the surface. Before the Industrial Revolution, naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases caused the air near the surface to be warmer by about {{convert|33|C-change|0}} than it would be in their absence.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch1|2007|loc=FAQ1.1}}: "To emit 240 W m<sup>−2</sup>, a surface would have to have a temperature of around {{convert|−19|C|F}}. This is much colder than the conditions that actually exist at the Earth's surface (the global mean surface temperature is about 14&nbsp;°C).</ref> ], the Earth's average temperature would be well below the freezing temperature of water.<ref>{{cite web
| ref = harv
| title = What Is the Greenhouse Effect?
| author = ACS
| author-link = American Chemical Society
| url = https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect.html
| access-date = 26 May 2019
| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20190526110653/https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect.html
| archive-date = 26 May 2019
| url-status = live
}}</ref> While ] (~50%) and clouds (~25%) are the biggest contributors to the greenhouse effect, they increase as a function of temperature and are therefore considered feedbacks. Increased concentrations of gases such as {{CO2}} (~20%), ozone and {{N2O}} are external forcing on the other hand.<ref>{{harvnb|Schmidt|Ruedy|Miller|Lacis|2010}}; {{harvnb|USGCRP Climate Science Supplement|2014|p=742}}.</ref> Ozone acts as a greenhouse gas in the lowest layer of the atmosphere, the troposphere. Furthermore, it is highly reactive and interacts with other greenhouse gases and aerosols.<ref>{{harvnb|Wang|Shugart|Lerdau|2017}}.</ref>


While ] (≈50%) and clouds (≈25%) are the biggest contributors to the greenhouse effect, they primarily change as a function of temperature and are therefore mostly considered to be ] that change ]. On the other hand, concentrations of gases such as {{CO2}} (≈20%), ],<ref>Ozone acts as a greenhouse gas in the lowest layer of the atmosphere, the ] (as opposed to the stratospheric ]). {{harvnb|Wang|Shugart|Lerdau|2017}}</ref> ] and ] are added or removed independently from temperature, and are therefore considered to be ] that change global temperatures.<ref>{{harvnb|Schmidt|Ruedy|Miller|Lacis|2010}}; {{harvnb|USGCRP Climate Science Supplement|2014|p=742}}</ref>
]
] shows how additions to {{CO2}} since 1880 have been caused by different sources ramping up one after another.]]
Human activity since the Industrial Revolution, mainly extracting and burning fossil fuels,<ref>{{Harvnb|The Guardian, 19 February|2020}}.</ref> has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This CO<sub>2</sub>, methane, ], ], and ] has increased ]. In 2018, the ] of CO<sub>2</sub> and methane had increased by about 45% and 160%, respectively, since pre-industrial times.<ref>{{Harvnb|WMO|2020|p=5}}.</ref> In 2013, CO<sub>2</sub> readings taken at the world's primary benchmark site in ] surpassing 400 ] for the first time.<ref>{{Harvnb|BBC, 10 May|2013}}; {{Harvnb|Schiermeier|2015}}.</ref> These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data have been collected from ]s.<ref>{{harvnb|Siegenthaler|Stocker|Monnin|Lüthi|2005}}; {{harvnb|Lüthi|Le Floch|Bereiter|Blunier|2008}}.</ref> Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO<sub>2</sub> values have not been this high for millions of years.<ref>{{Harvnb|BBC, 10 May|2013}}.</ref>


Before the ], naturally-occurring amounts of greenhouse gases caused the air near the surface to be about 33&nbsp;°C warmer than it would have been in their absence.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch1|2007|loc=FAQ1.1}}: "To emit 240 W m<sup>−2</sup>, a surface would have to have a temperature of around −19&nbsp;°C. This is much colder than the conditions that actually exist at the Earth's surface (the global mean surface temperature is about 14&nbsp;°C).</ref><ref>{{cite web|title=What Is the Greenhouse Effect?|author=ACS|author-link=American Chemical Society|url=https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect.html|access-date=26 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190526110653/https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect.html|archive-date=26 May 2019|url-status=live}}</ref> Human activity since the Industrial Revolution, mainly extracting and burning fossil fuels (], ], and ]),<ref>{{Harvnb|The Guardian, 19 February|2020}}.</ref> has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In 2022, the ] and methane had increased by about 50% and 164%, respectively, since 1750.<ref>{{Harvnb|WMO|2024a|p=2}}.</ref> These {{CO2}} levels are higher than they have been at any time during the last 14 million years.{{sfn|The Cenozoic CO2 Proxy Integration Project (CenCOPIP) Consortium|2023}} ] are far higher than they were over the last 800,000 years.{{Sfn|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=TS-35}}
Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2018 excluding land use change were ] 52&nbsp;billion tonnes of carbon dioxide. Of these emissions, 72% was carbon dioxide from ] burning and industry, 19% was from ], 6% was from ], and 3% was from ].{{Sfn|Olivier|Peters|2019|p=14, 16-17}} A further 4&nbsp;billion tonnes of {{CO2}} was released as a consequence of land use change, which is primarily due to ].{{Sfn|Olivier|Peters|2019|p=17}} Using ] to estimate emissions relating to final consumption, the dominant sources of 2010 emissions were: food (26–30% of emissions);<ref>{{harvnb|Poore|Nemecek|2018}}.</ref> washing, heating, and lighting (26%); personal transport and freight (20%); and building construction (15%).<ref>{{harvnb|Bajzelj|Allwood|Cullen|2013}}.</ref>


] shows how additions to {{CO2}} since 1880 have been caused by different sources ramping up one after another.]]
The land surface plays a double role in determining GHG concentrations. Agriculture and forestry are both major sources of greenhouse gases,<ref name=":3" /> with agricultural emissions being dominated by ].<ref>{{harvnb|Reisinger|Clark|2018}}.</ref> Natural responses to human-induced environmental changes, such as ] and climate change, have increased ] in the soil and photosynthesis, and therefore act as a significant ] for {{CO2}}, more than offsetting these GHG sources. The net result is an estimated removal (sink) of about 6&nbsp;billion tonnes annually, or about 15% of total {{CO2}} emissions.<ref name=":3">{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=|pp=10-11}}.</ref> The ocean also serves as a significant carbon sink via a two-step process. First, {{CO2}} dissolves in the surface water. Afterwards, the ocean's ] distributes it deep into the ocean's interior, where it accumulates over time.{{citation needed|date=April 2020}} Over the last two decades, the wold's oceans have removed between 20 and 30% of emitted {{CO2}}.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=450}}</ref> The strength of both the land and ocean sinks increase as {{CO2}} levels in the atmosphere rise. In this respect they act as negative feedbacks in global warming.{{citation needed|date=April 2020}}


Global human-caused greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 were ] 59&nbsp;billion tonnes of {{CO2}}. Of these emissions, 75% was {{CO2}}, 18% was ], 4% was nitrous oxide, and 2% was ].{{sfn|IPCC AR6 WG3 Summary for Policymakers|2022|loc=Figure SPM.1}} {{CO2}} emissions primarily come from burning fossil fuels to provide energy for ], manufacturing, ], and electricity.<ref name="Our World in Data-2020"/> Additional {{CO2}} emissions come from ] and ], which include the {{CO2}} released by the chemical reactions for ], ], ], and ].<ref>{{harvnb|Olivier|Peters|2019|p=17}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Our World in Data, 18 September|2020}}; {{harvnb|EPA|2020}}: "Greenhouse gas emissions from industry primarily come from burning fossil fuels for energy, as well as greenhouse gas emissions from certain chemical reactions necessary to produce goods from raw materials."</ref><ref>{{cite web|title=Redox, extraction of iron and transition metals|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zv7f3k7/revision/2|quote=Hot air (oxygen) reacts with the coke (carbon) to produce carbon dioxide and heat energy to heat up the furnace. Removing impurities: The calcium carbonate in the limestone thermally decomposes to form calcium oxide. calcium carbonate → calcium oxide + carbon dioxide}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Kvande|2014}}: "Carbon dioxide gas is formed at the anode, as the carbon anode is consumed upon reaction of carbon with the oxygen ions from the alumina ({{chem2|Al2O3}}). Formation of carbon dioxide is unavoidable as long as carbon anodes are used, and it is of great concern because {{CO2}} is a greenhouse gas."</ref> Methane emissions ], manure, ], landfills, wastewater, and ], as well as ].<ref>{{harvnb|EPA|2020}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Global Methane Initiative|2020}}: "Estimated Global Anthropogenic Methane Emissions by Source, 2020: ] (27%), Manure Management (3%), Coal Mining (9%), ] (11%), Oil & Gas (24%), ] (7%), ] (7%)."</ref> Nitrous oxide emissions largely come from the microbial decomposition of ].<ref>{{harvnb|EPA|2019}}: "Agricultural activities, such as fertilizer use, are the primary source of {{N2O}} emissions."</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Davidson|2009}}: "2.0% of manure nitrogen and 2.5% of fertilizer nitrogen was converted to nitrous oxide between 1860 and 2005; these percentage contributions explain the entire pattern of increasing nitrous oxide concentrations over this period."</ref>
=== Land surface change ===
Humans change the Earth's surface mainly to create more ]. Today agriculture takes up 50% of the world's habitable land, while 37% is forests,<ref>{{harvnb|Ritchie|Roser|2018}}.</ref> and that latter figure continues to decrease,<ref>{{harvnb|TSC Webmaster|2018}}.</ref> largely due to continued forest loss in the tropics.<ref>{{harvnb|UN FAO|2016|p=18}}.</ref> This ] is the most significant aspect of land use change affecting global warming. The main causes are: deforestation through permanent land use change for agricultural products such as beef and palm oil (27%), forestry/forest products (26%), short term agricultural cultivation (24%), and wildfires (23%).<ref>{{harvnb|Curtis|Slay|Harris|Tyukavina|2018}}.</ref>


While methane only lasts in the atmosphere for an average of 12 years,<ref>{{cite web |title=Understanding methane emissions |publisher=International Energy Agency |url=https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2023/understanding-methane-emissions}}</ref> {{CO2}} lasts much longer. The Earth's surface absorbs {{CO2}} as part of the ]. While plants on land and in the ocean absorb most excess emissions of {{CO2}} every year, that {{CO2}} is returned to the atmosphere when biological matter is digested, burns, or decays.<ref name="nasacc">{{cite web|last1=Riebeek|first1=Holli|title=The Carbon Cycle|url=http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/?src=eoa-features|website=Earth Observatory|publisher=NASA|access-date=5 April 2018|date=16 June 2011|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160305010126/http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/?src=eoa-features|archive-date=5 March 2016|url-status=live}}</ref> Land-surface ] processes, such as ] in the soil and photosynthesis, remove about 29% of annual global {{CO2}} emissions.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=10}}</ref> The ocean has absorbed 20 to 30% of emitted {{CO2}} over the last two decades.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=450}}.</ref> {{CO2}} is only removed from the atmosphere for the long term when it is stored in the Earth's crust, which is a process that can take millions of years to complete.<ref name="nasacc" />
In addition to impacting greenhouse gas concentrations, land use changes affect global warming through a variety of other chemical and physical dynamics as well. Changing the type of vegetation in a region impacts the local temperature by changing how much sunlight gets reflected back into space, called '']'', and how much heat is lost by evaporation. For instance, the change from a dark ] to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to reflect more sunlight. ] can also contribute to changing temperatures by affecting the release of aerosols and other chemical compounds that affect clouds; and by changing wind patterns when the land surface has different obstacles.<ref name="Seymour 2019">{{harvnb|Seymour|Gibbs|2019}}.</ref> Globally, these effects are estimated to have led to a slight cooling, dominated by an increase in surface albedo.<ref name="IPCC Special Report: Climate change and Land p2-54">{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|pp=|ps=: "The global biophysical cooling alone has been estimated by a larger range of climate models and is −0.10 ± 0.14°C; it ranges from – 0.57°C to +0.06°C ... This cooling is essentially dominated by increases in surface albedo: historical land cover changes have generally led to a dominant brightening of land as discussed in AR5"|p=172}}.</ref> But there is significant geographic variation in how this works. In the tropics the net effect is to produce a significant warming, while at latitudes closer to the poles a loss of albedo leads to an overall cooling effect.<ref name="Seymour 2019" />


=== Aerosols and soot === === Land surface changes ===
]
] can be seen as lines in these clouds over the Atlantic Ocean on the ] as ].]] ] known as '']s'' – from volcanoes, plankton, and human-made ]s – reflect incoming sunlight, cooling the climate.<ref>{{Harvnb|Haywood|2016}}; {{harvnb|Samset|Sand|Smith|Bauer|2018}}.</ref> From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of ] was observed, a phenomenon popularly known as '']'',<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch2|2013|p=183}}.</ref> typically attributed to aerosols from biofuel and fossil fuel burning.<ref>{{harvnb|He|Wang|Zhou|Wild|2018}}; {{Harvnb|Storelvmo|Phillips|Lohmann|Leirvik|2016}}.</ref> ] gives tropospheric aerosols an ] of only about a week, while ] aerosols can remain in the atmosphere for a few years.<ref name="RamCarm2008">{{harvnb|Ramanathan|Carmichael|2008}}.</ref> Globally, aerosols have been declining since 1990, removing some of the masking of global warming that they had been providing.<ref>{{harvnb|Wild|Gilgen|Roesch|Ohmura|2005}}; {{Harvnb|Storelvmo|Phillips|Lohmann|Leirvik|2016}}; {{harvnb|Samset|Sand|Smith|Bauer|2018}}.</ref>
Around 30% of Earth's land area is largely unusable for humans (]s, ]s, etc.), 26% is ]s, 10% is ] and 34% is ].<ref>{{harvnb|Ritchie|Roser|2018}}</ref> ] is the main ] contributor to global warming,<ref>{{harvnb|The Sustainability Consortium, 13 September|2018}}; {{harvnb|UN FAO|2016|p=18}}.</ref> as the destroyed trees release {{CO2}}, and are not replaced by new trees, removing that ].<ref name="IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers 2019 18">{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=18}}</ref> Between 2001 and 2018, 27% of deforestation was from permanent clearing to enable ] for crops and livestock. Another 24% has been lost to temporary clearing under the ] agricultural systems. 26% was due to ] for wood and derived products, and ]s have accounted for the remaining 23%.<ref>{{harvnb|Curtis|Slay|Harris|Tyukavina|2018}}</ref> Some forests have not been fully cleared, but were already degraded by these impacts. Restoring these forests also recovers their potential as a carbon sink.<ref name="Duchelle-2022">{{Cite book |author1=Garrett, L. |author2=Lévite, H. |author3=Besacier, C. |author4=Alekseeva, N. |author5=Duchelle, M. |url=https://doi.org/10.4060/cc2510en |title=The key role of forest and landscape restoration in climate action |publisher=FAO |year=2022 |isbn=978-92-5-137044-5 |location=Rome|doi=10.4060/cc2510en }}</ref>
In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, aerosols have indirect effects on the ]. Sulfate aerosols act as ] and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets.<ref>{{harvnb|Twomey|1977}}.</ref> This effect also causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces the ] and makes clouds more reflective to incoming sunlight.<ref>{{harvnb|Albrecht|1989}}.</ref> Indirect effects of aerosols are the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.<ref>{{Harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|p=78}}.</ref>


Local vegetation cover impacts how much of the sunlight gets reflected back into space (]), and how much ]. For instance, the change from a dark ] to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to reflect more sunlight. Deforestation can also modify the release of chemical compounds that influence clouds, and by changing wind patterns.<ref name="Seymour 2019">{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, 8 December|2019}}</ref> In tropic and temperate areas the net effect is to produce significant warming, and forest restoration can make local temperatures cooler.<ref name="Duchelle-2022"/> At latitudes closer to the poles, there is a cooling effect as forest is replaced by snow-covered (and more reflective) plains.<ref name="Seymour 2019" /> Globally, these increases in surface albedo have been the dominant direct influence on temperature from land use change. Thus, land use change to date is estimated to have a slight cooling effect.<ref name="IPCC Special Report: Climate change and Land p2-54">{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|p=172}}: "The global biophysical cooling alone has been estimated by a larger range of climate models and is −0.10 ± 0.14&nbsp;°C; it ranges from −0.57&nbsp;°C to +0.06&nbsp;°C&nbsp;... This cooling is essentially dominated by increases in surface albedo: historical land cover changes have generally led to a dominant brightening of land."</ref>
While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, ] in ] that falls on snow or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea level rise.<ref>{{harvnb|Ramanathan|Carmichael|2008}}; {{harvnb|RIVM|2016}}.</ref> Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2&nbsp;°C by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|Sand|Berntsen|von Salzen|Flanner|2015}}.</ref> When soot is suspended in the atmosphere, it directly absorbs solar radiation, heating the atmosphere and cooling the surface. In areas with high soot production, such as rural India, as much as 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by ]s.<ref>{{harvnb|Ramanathan|Agrawal|Akimoto|Aufhamer|2008}}; {{harvnb|Ramanathan|Chung|Kim|Bettge|2005}}.</ref>


=== Natural forcings === === Other factors ===
==== Aerosols and clouds ====
Air pollution, in the form of ] on a large scale.<ref>{{Harvnb|Haywood|2016|p=456}}; {{harvnb|McNeill|2017}}; {{harvnb|Samset|Sand|Smith|Bauer|2018}}.</ref> Aerosols scatter and absorb solar radiation. From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of ] was observed. This phenomenon is popularly known as '']'',<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch2|2013|p=183}}.</ref> and is primarily attributed to ] aerosols produced by the combustion of fossil fuels with heavy sulfur concentrations like ] and ].<ref name="Quaas2022" /> Smaller contributions come from ] (from combustion of fossil fuels and biomass), and from dust.<ref>{{harvnb|He|Wang|Zhou|Wild|2018}}; {{Harvnb|Storelvmo|Phillips|Lohmann|Leirvik|2016}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=18 February 2021 |title=Aerosol pollution has caused decades of global dimming |url=https://news.agu.org/press-release/aerosol-pollution-caused-decades-of-global-dimming/ |website=] |access-date=18 December 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230327143716/https://news.agu.org/press-release/aerosol-pollution-caused-decades-of-global-dimming/ |archive-date=27 March 2023 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Monroe |first=Robert |date=2023-01-20 |title=Increased Atmospheric Dust has Masked Power of Greenhouse Gases to Warm Planet {{!}} Scripps Institution of Oceanography |url=https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/increased-atmospheric-dust-has-masked-power-greenhouse-gases-warm-planet |access-date=2024-11-08 |website=scripps.ucsd.edu |language=en}}</ref> Globally, aerosols have been declining since 1990 due to pollution controls, meaning that they no longer mask greenhouse gas warming as much.<ref>{{harvnb|Wild|Gilgen|Roesch|Ohmura|2005}}; {{Harvnb|Storelvmo|Phillips|Lohmann|Leirvik|2016}}; {{harvnb|Samset|Sand|Smith|Bauer|2018}}.</ref><ref name="Quaas2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Quaas |first1=Johannes |last2=Jia |first2=Hailing |last3=Smith |first3=Chris |last4=Albright |first4=Anna Lea |last5=Aas |first5=Wenche |last6=Bellouin |first6=Nicolas |last7=Boucher |first7=Olivier |last8=Doutriaux-Boucher |first8=Marie |last9=Forster |first9=Piers M. |last10=Grosvenor |first10=Daniel |last11=Jenkins |first11=Stuart |last12=Klimont |first12=Zbigniew |last13=Loeb |first13=Norman G. |last14=Ma |first14=Xiaoyan |last15=Naik |first15=Vaishali |last16=Paulot |first16=Fabien |last17=Stier |first17=Philip |last18=Wild |first18=Martin |last19=Myhre |first19=Gunnar |last20=Schulz |first20=Michael |date=21 September 2022 |title=Robust evidence for reversal of the trend in aerosol effective climate forcing |url=https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/12221/2022/ |journal=Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |volume=22 |issue=18 |pages=12221–12239 |language=en |doi=10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022 |s2cid=252446168 |hdl=20.500.11850/572791 |hdl-access=free |doi-access=free |bibcode=2022ACP....2212221Q }}</ref>


Aerosols also have indirect effects on the ]. Sulfate aerosols act as ] and lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets.<ref>{{harvnb|Twomey|1977}}.</ref> They also reduce the ], which makes clouds more reflective to incoming sunlight.<ref>{{harvnb|Albrecht|1989}}.</ref> Indirect effects of aerosols are the largest uncertainty in ].<ref name=USGCRP_2017_ch2/>
{{Further|Solar activity and climate}}
As the Sun is the Earth's primary energy source, changes in incoming sunlight directly affect the climate system.<ref name=USGCRP_2017_ch2>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|p=78}}.</ref> ] has been measured directly by ]s,<ref>{{Harvnb|National Research Council|2008|p=6}}.</ref> and indirect measurements are available beginning in the early 1600s.<ref name=USGCRP_2017_ch2 /> There has been no upward trend in the amount of the Sun's energy reaching the Earth, so it cannot be responsible for the current warming.<ref>{{Cite web
|ref=harv
|title=Is the Sun causing global warming?
|website=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet
|url=https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming
|access-date=10 May 2019
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190505160051/https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming/
|archive-date=5 May 2019
|url-status=live
}}</ref> Physical climate models are also unable to reproduce the rapid warming observed in recent decades when taking into account only variations in solar output and volcanic activity.<ref>{{harvnb|Schmidt|Shindell|Tsigaridis|2014}}; {{harvnb|Fyfe|Meehl|England|Mann|2016}}.</ref> Another line of evidence for the warming not being due to the Sun is how temperature changes differ at different levels in the Earth's atmosphere.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch9|2007|pp=702–703}}.</ref> According to basic physical principles, the greenhouse effect produces warming of the lower atmosphere (the troposphere), but cooling of the upper atmosphere (the stratosphere).<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch9|2007|pp=702–703}}; {{harvnb|Randel|Shine|Austin|Barnett|2009}}.</ref> If solar variations were responsible for the observed warming, warming of both the troposphere and the stratosphere would be expected, but that has not been the case.<ref name=":1">{{Harvnb|USGCRP|2009|p=20}}.</ref>


While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, ] in ] that falls on snow or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea-level rise.<ref>{{harvnb|Ramanathan|Carmichael|2008}}; {{harvnb|RIVM|2016}}.</ref> Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2&nbsp;°C by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|Sand|Berntsen|von Salzen|Flanner|2015}}</ref> The effect of decreasing sulfur content of fuel oil for ships since 2020<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/Pages/Sulphur-2020.aspx|title=IMO 2020 – cutting sulphur oxide emissions|website=imo.org}}</ref> is estimated to cause an additional 0.05&nbsp;°C increase in global mean temperature by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 3 July|2023}}</ref>
== Climate change feedback{{anchor|Feedback}} ==
{{Main|Climate change feedback|Climate sensitivity}}[[File:NORTH POLE Ice (19626661335).jpg|thumb|Sea ice reflects 50 to 70 percent of incoming solar radiation while the dark ocean surface only reflects 6 percent, so melting sea ice is a positive feedback.<ref>
{{cite web |ref=harv
|url=https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/albedo.html
|title=Thermodynamics: Albedo
|work=NSIDC
|access-date=10 October 2017
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171011021602/https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/albedo.html
|archive-date=11 October 2017
|url-status=live
}}</ref>]]


==== Solar and volcanic activity ====
The response of the climate system to an initial forcing is increased by self-reinforcing '']s'' and reduced by balancing feedbacks.<ref>
{{Further|Solar activity and climate}}
{{cite web |ref=harv
] ("NCA4", USGCRP, 2017) includes charts illustrating that neither solar nor volcanic activity can explain the observed warming.<ref>{{cite journal |title=Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I - Chapter 3: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change |url=https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/3/ |website=science2017.globalchange.gov |publisher=U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190923190450/https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/3/ |archive-date=23 September 2019 |year=2017 |pages=1–470 |url-status=live}} Adapted directly from Fig. 3.3.</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Wuebbles |first1=D. J. |last2=Fahey |first2=D. W. |last3=Hibbard |first3=K. A. |last4=Deangelo |first4=B. |last5=Doherty |first5=S. |last6=Hayhoe |first6=K. |last7=Horton |first7=R. |last8=Kossin |first8=J. P. |last9=Taylor |first9=P. C. |last10=Waple |first10=A. M. |last11=Yohe |first11=C. P. |date=23 November 2018 |title=Climate Science Special Report / Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I /Executive Summary / Highlights of the Findings of the U.S. Global Change Research Program Climate Science Special Report |url=https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/executive-summary/ |url-status=live |publisher=U.S. Global Change Research Program |pages=1–470 |doi=10.7930/J0DJ5CTG |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190614150544/https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/executive-summary/ |archive-date=14 June 2019 |doi-access=free |website=globalchange.gov}}</ref>]]
|title = The study of Earth as an integrated system
As the Sun is the Earth's primary energy source, changes in incoming sunlight directly affect the ].<ref name=USGCRP_2017_ch2>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|p=78}}.</ref> ] has been measured directly by ]s,<ref>{{Harvnb|National Academies|2008|p=6}}</ref> and indirect measurements are available from the early 1600s onwards.<ref name=USGCRP_2017_ch2 /> Since 1880, there has been no upward trend in the amount of the Sun's energy reaching the Earth, in contrast to the warming of the lower atmosphere (the ]).<ref>{{cite web|title=Is the Sun causing global warming?|website=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet|url=https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming|access-date=10 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190505160051/https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming/|archive-date=5 May 2019|url-status=live}}</ref> The upper atmosphere (the ]) would also be warming if the Sun was sending more energy to Earth, but instead, it has been cooling.<ref name="USGCRP-2009">{{Harvnb|USGCRP|2009|p=20}}.</ref>
|publisher=Earth Science Communications Team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory / California Institute of Technology
This is consistent with greenhouse gases preventing heat from leaving the Earth's atmosphere.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch9|2007|pp=702–703}}; {{harvnb|Randel|Shine|Austin|Barnett|2009}}.</ref>
|year=2013
|series = Vitals Signs of the Planet
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190226190002/https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/
|archive-date=26 February 2019
|url=https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/
|url-status=live
}}.</ref> The main balancing feedback to global temperature change is ] to space as ], which increases strongly with increasing temperature.<ref>
{{cite web | ref=harv
|last1=Lindsey |first1= R.
|date=14 January 2009
|title=Earth's Energy Budget, in: Climate and Earth's Energy Budget: Feature Articles
|url=https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/EnergyBalance/page4.php
|publisher=Earth Observatory, part of the EOS Project Science Office, located at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
|quote=The amount of heat a surface radiates is proportional to the fourth power of its temperature (in Kelvin).
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180902131221/https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/EnergyBalance/page4.php |archive-date=2 September 2018
|url-status=live
}}</ref> The main reinforcing feedbacks are the water vapour feedback, the ], and probably the net effect of clouds.<ref name="Met Office 2016">{{harvnb|Met Office|2016}}.</ref> Uncertainty over feedbacks is the major reason why different climate models project different magnitudes of warming for a given amount of emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|Wolff|Shepherd|Shuckburgh|Watson|2015|p=}}: "the nature and magnitude of these feedbacks are the principal cause of uncertainty in the response of Earth's climate (over multi-decadal and longer periods) to a particular emissions scenario or greenhouse gas concentration pathway."</ref>


] can release gases, dust and ash that partially block sunlight and reduce temperatures, or they can send water vapour into the atmosphere, which adds to greenhouse gases and increases temperatures.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3204/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere/ |title=Tonga eruption blasted unprecedented amount of water into stratosphere |last=Greicius |first=Tony |date=2 August 2022 |website=NASA Global Climate Change |access-date=18 January 2024 |quote=Massive volcanic eruptions like Krakatoa and Mount Pinatubo typically cool Earth's surface by ejecting gases, dust, and ash that reflect sunlight back into space. In contrast, the Tonga volcano didn't inject large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere, and the huge amounts of water vapor from the eruption may have a small, temporary warming effect, since water vapor traps heat. The effect would dissipate when the extra water vapor cycles out of the stratosphere and would not be enough to noticeably exacerbate climate change effects.}}</ref> These impacts on temperature only last for several years, because both water vapour and volcanic material have low persistence in the atmosphere.<ref name="USGCRP Chapter 2 2017 79">{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|p=79}}</ref> ] are more persistent, but they are equivalent to less than 1% of current human-caused {{CO2}} emissions.{{sfn|Fischer|Aiuppa|2020}} Volcanic activity still represents the single largest natural impact (forcing) on temperature in the industrial era. Yet, like the other natural forcings, it has had negligible impacts on global temperature trends since the Industrial Revolution.<ref name="USGCRP Chapter 2 2017 79"/>
As air gets warmer, it can hold more moisture. After an initial warming due to emissions of greenhouse gases, the atmosphere will hold more water. As water is a potent greenhouse gas, this further heats the climate: the ''water vapour feedback''.<ref name="Met Office 2016"/> The reduction of snow cover and ] in the Arctic reduces the albedo of the Earth's surface.<ref>{{harvnb|NASA, 28 May|2013}}.</ref> More of the Sun's energy is now absorbed in these regions, contributing to ], which has caused Arctic temperatures to increase at more than twice the rate of the rest of the world.<ref>{{harvnb|Cohen|Screen|Furtado|Barlow|2014}}.</ref> Arctic amplification also causes methane to be released as ] melts, which is expected to surpass land use changes as the second strongest anthropogenic source of greenhouse gases by the end of the century.<ref>{{harvnb|Farquharson|Romanovsky|Cable|Walker|2019}}; {{harvnb|NASA, 20 August|2018}}; {{harvnb|The Guardian, 18 June|2019}}.</ref>


==== Climate change feedbacks ====
Cloud cover may change in the future. If cloud cover increases, more sunlight will be reflected back into space, cooling the planet. Simultaneously, the clouds enhance the greenhouse effect, warming the planet. The opposite is true if cloud cover decreases. It depends on the cloud type and location which process is more important. Overall, the net feedback over the industrial era has probably been self-reinforcing.<ref>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|p=90}}.</ref>
{{Main|Climate change feedbacks|Climate sensitivity}}
].<ref>{{cite web |url=https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/albedo.html |title=Thermodynamics: Albedo |work=NSIDC |access-date=10 October 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171011021602/https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/albedo.html |archive-date=11 October 2017 |url-status=live }}</ref>]]


The climate system's response to an initial forcing is shaped by feedbacks, which either amplify or dampen the change. '']'' or ''positive'' feedbacks increase the response, while '']'' or ''negative'' feedbacks reduce it.<ref>{{cite web |title=The study of Earth as an integrated system |publisher=Earth Science Communications Team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory / California Institute of Technology |year=2013 |series=Vitals Signs of the Planet |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190226190002/https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/ |archive-date=26 February 2019 |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/ |url-status=live}}</ref> The main reinforcing feedbacks are the ], the ], and the net effect of clouds.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=89–91}}<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=58}}: "The net effect of changes in clouds in response to global warming is to amplify human-induced warming, that is, the net cloud feedback is positive (high confidence)"</ref> The primary balancing mechanism is ], as Earth's surface gives off more ] to space in response to rising temperature.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=89–90}} In addition to temperature feedbacks, there are feedbacks in the carbon cycle, such as the fertilizing effect of {{CO2}} on plant growth.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013|p=14}}</ref> Feedbacks are expected to trend in a positive direction as greenhouse gas emissions continue, raising climate sensitivity.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=93}}: "Feedback processes are expected to become more positive overall (more amplifying of global surface temperature changes) on multi-decadal time scales as the spatial pattern of surface warming evolves and global surface temperature increases."</ref>
Roughly half of each year's CO<sub>2</sub> emissions have been absorbed by plants on land and in oceans.<ref>{{harvnb|NASA, 16 June|2011|p=}}: "So far, land plants and the ocean have taken up about 55 percent of the extra carbon people have put into the atmosphere while about 45 percent has stayed in the atmosphere. Eventually, the land and oceans will take up most of the extra carbon dioxide, but as much as 20 percent may remain in the atmosphere for many thousands of years."</ref> Carbon dioxide and an extended growing season have stimulated plant growth making the land ] a balancing feedback. Climate change also increases droughts and heat waves that inhibit plant growth, which makes it uncertain whether this balancing feedback will persist in the future.<ref>{{harvnb|Scientific American, 23 January|2018|p=}}: "Climate change's negative effects on plants will likely outweigh any gains from elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels"; {{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|p=133}}.</ref> Soils contain large quantities of carbon and ].<ref>{{harvnb|Melillo|Frey|DeAngelis|Werner|2017}}: Our first-order estimate of a warming-induced loss of 190 Pg of soil carbon over the 21st century is equivalent to the past two decades of carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning.</ref> As more CO<sub>2</sub> and heat are absorbed by the ocean, it is acidifying and ocean circulation can change, changing the rate at which the ocean can absorb atmospheric carbon.<ref>
{{cite web |ref=harv
|title=How the oceans absorb carbon dioxide is critical for predicting climate change
|accessdate=24 February 2019
|url=https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Ocean+Carbon+Uptake
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190329222634/https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Ocean+Carbon+Uptake
|archive-date=29 March 2019
|url-status=live
}}.</ref>


These feedback processes alter the pace of global warming. For instance, warmer air ] in the form of ], which is itself a potent greenhouse gas.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=89–91}} Warmer air can also make clouds higher and thinner, and therefore more insulating, increasing climate warming.{{sfn|Williams|Ceppi|Katavouta|2020}} The reduction of snow cover and sea ice in the Arctic is another major feedback, this reduces the reflectivity of the Earth's surface in the region and ].<ref>{{harvnb|NASA, 28 May|2013}}.</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Cohen|Screen|Furtado|Barlow|2014}}.</ref> This additional warming also contributes to ] thawing, which releases methane and {{CO2}} into the atmosphere.<ref name="Turetsky 2019">{{harvnb|Turetsky|Abbott|Jones|Anthony|2019}}</ref>
== Models, projections and carbon budget ==
] average of climate model projections for 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005, under low and high emission scenarios.]]


Around half of human-caused {{CO2}} emissions have been absorbed by land plants and by the oceans.<ref>{{harvnb|Climate.gov, 23 June|2022}}: "Carbon cycle experts estimate that natural "sinks"—processes that remove carbon from the atmosphere—on land and in the ocean absorbed the equivalent of about half of the carbon dioxide we emitted each year in the 2011–2020 decade."</ref> This fraction is not static and if future {{CO2}} emissions decrease, the Earth will be able to absorb up to around 70%. If they increase substantially, it'll still absorb more carbon than now, but the overall fraction will decrease to below 40%.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=TS-122|loc=Box TS.5, Figure 1}}</ref> This is because climate change increases droughts and heat waves that eventually inhibit plant growth on land, and soils will release more carbon from dead plants ].<ref>{{harvnb|Melillo|Frey|DeAngelis|Werner|2017}}: Our first-order estimate of a warming-induced loss of 190 Pg of soil carbon over the 21st century is equivalent to the past two decades of carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning.</ref><ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|pp=133, 144}}.</ref> The rate at which oceans absorb atmospheric carbon will be lowered as they become more acidic and experience changes in ] and ] distribution.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=93–95}}<ref name="Liu2022">{{cite journal |last1=Liu |first1=Y. |last2=Moore |first2=J. K. |last3=Primeau |first3=F. |last4=Wang |first4=W. L. |date=22 December 2022 |title=Reduced CO2 uptake and growing nutrient sequestration from slowing overturning circulation |journal=Nature Climate Change |volume=13 |pages=83–90 |doi=10.1038/s41558-022-01555-7 |osti=2242376 |s2cid=255028552 }}</ref><ref name="PearceYale3602023"/> Uncertainty over feedbacks, particularly cloud cover,<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|pp=58, 59}}: "Clouds remain the largest contribution to overall uncertainty in climate feedbacks."</ref> is the major reason why different climate models project different magnitudes of warming for a given amount of emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|Wolff|Shepherd|Shuckburgh|Watson|2015}}: "the nature and magnitude of these feedbacks are the principal cause of uncertainty in the response of Earth's climate (over multi-decadal and longer periods) to a particular emissions scenario or greenhouse gas concentration pathway."</ref>
A ] is a representation of the physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect the climate system.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014|p=120}}.</ref> Computer models attempt to reproduce and predict the circulation of the oceans, the annual cycle of the seasons, and the flows of carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc= }}.</ref> There are more than two dozen scientific institutions that develop climate models.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc= }}.</ref> Models not only project different future temperature with different emissions of greenhouse gases, but also do not fully agree on the strength of different ] and the amount of inertia of the system.<ref>{{harvnb|Stott|Kettleborough|2002}}.</ref>


== Modelling ==
Climate models incorporate different ].<ref>{{harvnb|Séférian|Smith|Kriegler|Forster|2019}}.</ref> For different greenhouse gas inputs four RCPs (]s) are used: "a stringent mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), two intermediate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0) and one scenario with very high GHG emissions (RCP8.5)".<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=Sec. 2.1}}..</ref> Models also include changes in the Earth's orbit, historical changes in the Sun's activity, and volcanic forcing.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc= }}.</ref> RCPs only look at concentrations of greenhouse gases, factoring out uncertainty as to whether the carbon cycle will continue to remove about half of the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere each year.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Technical Summary|2013}}.</ref> ] projections summarized in the report indicated that, during the 21st century, the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further {{convert|0.3|to|1.7|C-change|1}} in a moderate scenario, or as much as {{convert|2.6|to|4.8|C-change|1}} in an extreme scenario, depending on the ] and on ].<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Technical Summary|2013|p=57}}.</ref>
{{Further|Climate model|Climate change scenario}}
], including {{CO2}} and all forcing agents' atmospheric {{CO2}}-equivalents.]]
] that heats the planet up.]]
A ] is a representation of the physical, chemical and biological processes that affect the climate system.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014|p=120}}.</ref> Models include natural processes like changes in the Earth's orbit, historical changes in the Sun's activity, and volcanic forcing.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=}}</ref> Models are used to estimate the degree of warming future emissions will cause when accounting for the ].<ref>{{harvnb|Wolff|Shepherd|Shuckburgh|Watson|2015}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=}}</ref> Models also predict the circulation of the oceans, the annual cycle of the seasons, and the flows of carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=}}</ref>


The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past climates.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch8|2007}}, FAQ 8.1.</ref> Past models have underestimated the rate of ]<ref>{{harvnb|Stroeve|Holland|Meier|Scambos|2007}}; {{harvnb|National Geographic, 13 August|2019}}</ref> and underestimated the rate of precipitation increase.<ref>{{harvnb|Liepert|Previdi|2009}}.</ref> Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but more recent models agree well with observations.<ref>{{harvnb|Rahmstorf|Cazenave|Church|Hansen|2007}}; {{harvnb|Mitchum|Masters|Hamlington|Fasullo|2018}}</ref> The 2017 United States-published ] notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes".<ref>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 15|2017}}.</ref> Additionally, climate models may be unable to adequately predict short-term regional climatic shifts.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Hébert |first1=R. |last2=Herzschuh |first2=U. |last3=Laepple |first3=T. |date=31 October 2022 |title=Millennial-scale climate variability over land overprinted by ocean temperature fluctuations |journal=] |volume=15 |issue=1 |pages=899–905 |doi=10.1038/s41561-022-01056-4 |pmid=36817575 |pmc=7614181 |bibcode=2022NatGe..15..899H }}</ref>
These models are also used to estimate the remaining carbon ]. According to the IPCC, global warming can be kept below 1.5&nbsp;°C with a two-thirds chance if emissions after 2018 do not exceed 420 or 570 Gt{{CO2}} depending on the choice of the measure of global temperature. This amount corresponds to 10 to 13 years of current emissions. There are high uncertainties about the budget in either direction.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=12}}.</ref>


A ] add societal factors to a physical climate model. These models simulate how population, ], and energy use affect—and interact with—the physical climate. With this information, these models can produce scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions. This is then used as input for physical climate models and carbon cycle models to predict how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Matthews|Gillett|Stott|Zickfeld|2009}}</ref> Depending on the ] and the mitigation scenario, models produce atmospheric {{CO2}} concentrations that range widely between 380 and 1400 ppm.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 19 April|2018}}; {{harvnb|Meinshausen|2019|p=462}}.</ref>
The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate contemporary or past climates.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch8|2007}}, Sec. FAQ 8.1.</ref> Past models have underestimated the rate of ]<ref>{{harvnb|Stroeve|Holland|Meier|Scambos|2007}}; {{harvnb|National Geographic, 13 August|2019}}.</ref> and underestimated the rate of precipitation increase.<ref>{{harvnb|Liepert|Previdi|2009}}.</ref> Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but now agrees well with observations.<ref>{{harvnb|Rahmstorf|Cazenave|Church|Hansen|2007}};
{{harvnb|Mitchum|Masters|Hamlington|Fasullo|2018}}.</ref> The 2017 United States-published ] notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes".<ref>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 15|2017}}.</ref>


== Impacts ==
A ] add societal factors to a simple physical climate model. These models simulate how population, ], and energy use affect – and interact with – the physical climate. With this information, these models can produce scenarios of how greenhouse gas emissions may vary in the future. This output is then used as input for physical climate models to generate climate change projections.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=}}; {{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 21 March|2019}}.</ref> ], estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases, depend upon uncertain economic, ], ], and natural developments.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3 Ch3|2007}}, {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181223031805/https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch3s3-1.html|date=23 December 2018}}.</ref> In some scenarios emissions continue to rise over the century, while others have reduced emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|Riahi|van Vuuren|Kriegler|Edmonds|2017}}; {{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 19 April|2018}}.</ref> Fossil fuel reserves are abundant, and will not limit carbon emissions in the 21st century.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC TAR WG3 Summary for Policymakers|2001}}, {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060311001538/http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/004.htm|date=11 March 2006}}.</ref>
{{Main|Effects of climate change}}


]s from the 1850 to 1900 baseline.]]
Emission scenarios can be combined with modelling of the ] to predict how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change in the future.<ref>{{harvnb|Matthews|Gillett|Stott|Zickfeld|2009}}; {{harvnb|Congressional Research Service|2009|p=9}}.</ref> According to these combined models, by 2100 the atmospheric concentration of CO<sub>2</sub> could be as low as 380 or as high as 1400 ppm, depending on the ] (SSP) the world takes and the mitigation scenario.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 19 April|2018}}; {{harvnb|Meinshausen|2019|p=462}}.</ref> The 10th Emissions Gap Report issued by the ] (UNEP) predicts that if emissions continue to increase at the same rate as they have in 2010–2020, global temperatures would rise by as much as 4&nbsp;°C by 2100.<ref>{{harvnb|Science Magazine, 26 November|2019}}.</ref>


== Effects == === Environmental effects ===
{{Further|Effects of climate change on oceans|Effects of climate change on the water cycle}}
{{Main|Effects of global warming}}
The environmental effects of climate change are broad and far-reaching, ], ice, and weather. Changes may occur gradually or rapidly. Evidence for these effects comes from studying climate change in the past, from modelling, and from modern observations.<ref>{{harvnb|Hansen|Sato|Hearty|Ruedy|2016}}; {{harvnb|Smithsonian, 26 June|2016}}.</ref> Since the 1950s, ]s and heat waves have appeared simultaneously with increasing frequency.<ref>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 15|2017|p=415}}.</ref> Extremely wet or dry events within the ] period have increased in India and East Asia.<ref>{{harvnb|Scientific American, 29 April|2014}}; {{harvnb|Burke|Stott|2017}}.</ref> Monsoonal precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere has increased since 1980.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Liu |first1=Fei |last2=Wang |first2=Bin |last3=Ouyang |first3=Yu |last4=Wang |first4=Hui |last5=Qiao |first5=Shaobo |last6=Chen |first6=Guosen |last7=Dong |first7=Wenjie |date=19 April 2022 |title=Intraseasonal variability of global land monsoon precipitation and its recent trend |journal=npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |language=en |volume=5 |issue=1 |page=30 |doi=10.1038/s41612-022-00253-7 |bibcode=2022npCAS...5...30L |issn=2397-3722 |doi-access=free }}</ref> The rainfall rate and intensity of ],<ref name="USGCRP-2017">{{Harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 9|2017|p=260}}.</ref> and the geographic range likely expanding poleward in response to climate warming.<ref>{{cite journal |first1=Joshua |last1=Studholme |first2=Alexey V. |last2=Fedorov |first3=Sergey K. |last3=Gulev |first4=Kerry |last4=Emanuel |first5=Kevin |last5=Hodges |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00859-1 |title=Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates |date=29 December 2021 |journal=] |volume=15 |pages=14–28 |doi=10.1038/s41561-021-00859-1 |s2cid=245540084}}</ref> Frequency of tropical cyclones has not increased as a result of climate change.<ref>{{cite web |title=Hurricanes and Climate Change |url=https://www.c2es.org/content/hurricanes-and-climate-change/ |website=] |date=10 July 2020}}</ref>


]
=== Physical environment ===
Global sea level is rising as a consequence of ] and ] and ]. Sea level rise has increased over time, reaching 4.8&nbsp;cm per decade between 2014 and 2023.<ref>{{harvnb|WMO|2024a|p=6}}.</ref> Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects 32–62&nbsp;cm of sea level rise under a low emission scenario, 44–76&nbsp;cm under an intermediate one and 65–101&nbsp;cm under a very high emission scenario.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022|p=1302}}</ref> ] processes in Antarctica may add substantially to these values,<ref>{{harvnb|DeConto|Pollard|2016}}</ref> including the possibility of a 2-meter sea level rise by 2100 under high emissions.{{sfn|Bamber|Oppenheimer|Kopp|Aspinall|2019}}
{{Main|Physical impacts of climate change|}}
]
The environmental effects of global warming are broad and far-reaching. They include effects on the oceans, ice, and weather and may occur gradually or rapidly. Evidence for these effects come from studying climate change in the past, modelling and modern observations.<ref>{{harvnb|Hansen|Sato|Hearty|Ruedy|2016}}; {{harvnb|Smithsonian, 26 June|2016}}.</ref> Many regions have probably already seen ], and it is virtually certain that these changes will continue over the 21st century.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SREX Summary for Policymakers|2012}}, section D ("Future Climate Extremes, Impacts, and Disaster Losses"), pp. 9–13.</ref> Since the 1950s, ]s and ]s have appeared simultaneously with increasing frequency.<ref>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 15|2017|p=415}}.</ref> Extremely wet or dry events within the ] period have increased in ] and East Asia.<ref>{{harvnb|Scientific American, 29 April|2014}}; {{harvnb|Burke|Stott|2017}}.</ref> Various mechanisms have been identified that might explain ] in mid-latitudes from the rapidly warming Arctic, such as the ] becoming more erratic.<ref>{{harvnb|Francis|Vavrus|2012}}; {{harvnb|Sun|Perlwitz|Hoerling|2016}}; {{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 31 January|2019}}.</ref>{{update after|2029|reason=The Carbon Brief source states that they expect consensus about this in 5 to 10 years.}} The maximum rainfall and wind speed from ].<ref>{{Harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 9|2017|p=260}}.</ref>


Climate change has led to decades of ].<ref>{{harvnb|Zhang|Lindsay|Steele|Schweiger|2008}}</ref> While ice-free summers are expected to be rare at 1.5&nbsp;°C degrees of warming, they are set to occur once every three to ten years at a warming level of 2&nbsp;°C.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=18}}</ref> Higher atmospheric {{CO2}} concentrations cause more {{CO2}} to dissolve in the oceans, which is ].<ref>{{Harvnb|Doney|Fabry|Feely|Kleypas|2009}}.</ref> Because oxygen is less soluble in warmer water,<ref>{{harvnb|Deutsch|Brix|Ito|Frenzel|2011}}</ref> its concentrations in the ocean ], and ] are expanding.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=510}}; {{cite web |title=Climate Change and Harmful Algal Blooms |date=5 September 2013 |url=https://www.epa.gov/nutrientpollution/climate-change-and-harmful-algal-blooms |publisher=] |access-date=11 September 2020}}</ref>
Between 1993 and 2017, the ] on average by 3.1&nbsp;±&nbsp;0.3&nbsp;mm per year, with an acceleration detected as well.<ref>{{harvnb|WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group|2018}}.</ref> Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects that in a very high emissions scenario the sea level could rise by 61–110&nbsp;cm.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch4|2019|p=324}}: GMSL (global mean sea level, red) will rise between 0.43&nbsp;m (0.29–0.59&nbsp;m, likely range) (RCP2.6) and 0.84&nbsp;m (0.61–1.10&nbsp;m, likely range) (RCP8.5) by 2100 (medium confidence) relative to 1986–2005.</ref> The rate of ice loss from glaciers and ice sheets in the Antarctic is a key area of uncertainty since this source could account for 90% of the potential sea level rise:<ref>{{harvnb|U.S. Geological Survey, 18 June 2018}}.</ref> increased ocean warmth is undermining and threatening to unplug Antarctic glacier outlets, potentially resulting in more rapid sea level rise.<ref>{{harvnb|DeConto|Pollard|2016}}; {{harvnb|NOAA, 1 August|2018}}.</ref> The ] also contributes to sea level rise.<ref>{{harvnb|NOAA, 1 August|2018}}.</ref>


=== Tipping points and long-term impacts ===
Global warming has led to decades of ], making it vulnerable to atmospheric anomalies.<ref>{{harvnb|Zhang|Lindsay|Steele|Schweiger|2008}}.</ref> Projections of declines in Arctic sea ice vary.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch11|2013|p=995}}; {{Harvnb|Wang|Overland|2009}}.</ref> While ice-free summers are expected to be rare at {{convert|1.5|C-change}} degrees of warming, they are set to occur once every three to ten years at a warming level of {{convert|2.0|C-change}},<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers|2019|page=18}}.</ref> increasing the ].<ref>{{harvnb|Pistone|Eisenman|Ramanathan|2019}}.</ref> Higher atmospheric {{CO2}} concentrations have led to an increase in dissolved CO<sub>2</sub>, which causes ].<ref>{{Harvnb|Doney|Fabry|Feely|Kleypas|2009}}.</ref> Furthermore, oxygen levels decrease because oxygen is less soluble in warmer water, an effect known as '']''.<ref>{{harvnb|Deutsch|Brix|Ito|Frenzel|2011}}.</ref>
] |access-date=31 January 2024 }}</ref><ref name="ArmstrongMcKay2022" />]]
{{Main|Tipping points in the climate system}}
Greater degrees of global warming increase the risk of passing through ']'—thresholds beyond which certain major impacts can no longer be avoided even if temperatures return to their previous state.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018|p=283}}.</ref><ref>{{Harvnb|Carbon Brief, 10 February|2020}}</ref> For instance, the ] is already melting, but if global warming reaches levels between 1.7&nbsp;°C and 2.3&nbsp;°C, its melting will continue until it fully disappears. If the warming is later reduced to 1.5&nbsp;°C or less, it will still lose a lot more ice than if the warming was never allowed to reach the threshold in the first place.<ref name="Bochow2023">{{cite journal |last1=Bochow |first1=Nils |last2=Poltronieri |first2=Anna |last3=Robinson |first3=Alexander |last4=Montoya |first4=Marisa |last5=Rypdal |first5=Martin |last6=Boers |first6=Niklas |date=18 October 2023 |title=Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet |journal=] |volume=622 |issue=7983 |pages=528–536 |bibcode=2023Natur.622..528B |doi=10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9 |pmc=10584691 |pmid=37853149}}</ref> While the ice sheets would melt over millennia, other tipping points would occur faster and give societies less time to respond. The collapse of major ]s like the ] (AMOC), and irreversible damage to key ecosystems like the ] and ] can unfold in a matter of decades.<ref name="ArmstrongMcKay2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Armstrong McKay |first1=David I. |last2=Staal |first2=Arie |last3=Abrams |first3=Jesse F. |last4=Winkelmann |first4=Ricarda |last5=Sakschewski |first5=Boris |last6=Loriani |first6=Sina |last7=Fetzer |first7=Ingo |last8=Cornell |first8=Sarah E. |last9=Rockström |first9=Johan |last10=Lenton |first10=Timothy M. |date=9 September 2022 |title=Exceeding 1.5&nbsp;°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points |url=https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950 |journal=] |volume=377 |issue=6611 |pages=eabn7950 |doi=10.1126/science.abn7950 |pmid=36074831 |hdl=10871/131584 |s2cid=252161375 |issn=0036-8075|hdl-access=free }}</ref>


The long-term ] include further ice melt, ], sea level rise, ocean acidification and ocean deoxygenation.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|p=21}}</ref> The timescale of long-term impacts are centuries to millennia due to {{CO2}}'s long atmospheric lifetime.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013|pp=88–89|loc=FAQ 12.3}}</ref> The result is an estimated total sea level rise of {{convert|2.3|m/°C|ft/°F}} after 2000 years.<ref>{{harvnb|Smith|Schneider|Oppenheimer|Yohe|2009}}; {{harvnb|Levermann|Clark|Marzeion|Milne|2013}}</ref> Oceanic {{CO2}} uptake is slow enough that ocean acidification will also continue for hundreds to thousands of years.{{sfn|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013|p=1112}} Deep oceans (below {{convert|2000|m|ft}}) are also already committed to losing over 10% of their dissolved oxygen by the warming which occurred to date.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Oschlies |first1=Andreas |title=A committed fourfold increase in ocean oxygen loss |journal=Nature Communications |date=16 April 2021 |volume=12 |issue=1 |page=2307 |doi=10.1038/s41467-021-22584-4 |pmid=33863893 |pmc=8052459 |bibcode=2021NatCo..12.2307O }}</ref> Further, the ] appears committed to practically irreversible melting, which would increase the sea levels by at least {{convert|3.3|m|ftin|abbr=on}} over approximately 2000 years.<ref name="ArmstrongMcKay2022" /><ref name="Lau2023">{{Cite journal |last1=Lau |first1=Sally C. Y. |last2=Wilson |first2=Nerida G. |last3=Golledge |first3=Nicholas R. |last4=Naish |first4=Tim R. |last5=Watts |first5=Phillip C. |last6=Silva |first6=Catarina N. S. |last7=Cooke |first7=Ira R. |last8=Allcock |first8=A. Louise |last9=Mark |first9=Felix C. |last10=Linse |first10=Katrin |date=21 December 2023 |title=Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial |url=https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/58369/1/science.ade0664%281%29.pdf |journal=] |volume=382 |issue=6677 |pages=1384–1389 |bibcode=2023Sci...382.1384L |doi=10.1126/science.ade0664 |pmid=38127761 |s2cid=266436146}}</ref><ref name="Naughten2023">{{cite journal |last1=Naughten |first1=Kaitlin A. |last2=Holland |first2=Paul R. |last3=De Rydt |first3=Jan |date=23 October 2023 |title=Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century |journal=] |volume=13 |issue=11 |pages=1222–1228 |bibcode=2023NatCC..13.1222N |doi=10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x |s2cid=264476246 |doi-access=free}}</ref>
The ] include further ice melt, ocean warming, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. On the timescale of centuries to millennia, the magnitude of global warming will be determined primarily by anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions.<ref name="long-term effects of global warming">{{harvnb|National Research Council|2011|p=14|loc=}}; {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013|pp=88–89|loc = FAQ 12.3}}.</ref> This is due to carbon dioxide's very long lifetime in the atmosphere.<ref name="long-term effects of global warming" /> Carbon dioxide is slowly taking up by the ocean, such that ocean acification will continue for hundrends to thousands of years.{{Sfn|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013|p=1112}} The emissions are estimated to have prolonged the current ] period by at least 100,000 years.<ref>{{harvnb|Crucifix|2016}}</ref> Because the great mass of glaciers and ice caps depressed the Earth's crust, another long-term effect of ice melt and deglaciation is the gradual rising of landmasses, a process called '']''.<ref>{{harvnb|McGuire|2010}}.</ref> Sea level rise will continue over many centuries, with an estimated rise of {{convert|2.3|m/C|ft/F}} after 2000 years.<ref>{{harvnb|Smith|Schneider|Oppenheimer|Yohe|2009}}; {{harvnb|Levermann|Clark|Marzeion|Milne|2013}}.</ref>


===Nature and wildlife===
If global warming exceeds 1.5&nbsp;°C, there is a greater risk of passing through ‘]’, thresholds beyond which certain impacts can no longer be avoided even if temperatures are reduced.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018|p=283}}.</ref> Some large-scale changes could occur ], i.e. over a short time period. One potential source of abrupt tipping would be the rapid release of methane and carbon dioxide from ], which would amplify global warming.<ref name="Turetsky 2019">{{harvnb|Turetsky|Abbott|Jones|Anthony|2019}}.</ref> Another example is the possibility for the ] to ],<ref name="ccsp abrupt climate change">{{harvnb|Clark|Weaver|Brook|Cook|2008}}; {{harvnb|BBC, 22 February|2013}}.</ref> which could trigger cooling in the North ], Europe, and North America.<ref>{{harvnb|ScienceDaily, 20 December|2004}}; {{harvnb|Liu|Xie|Liu|Zhu|2017}}.</ref> If multiple temperature and carbon cycle tipping points re-inforce each other, or if there were to be strong threshold behaviour in cloud cover, there could be a global tipping into a ].<ref name=":0">
<!-- Warning: Do not change the above title without also changing places where the gallery below is transcluded (this article summary, and effects of climate change article). -->
{{harvnb|Lenton|Rockström|Gaffney|Rahmstorf|2019}}.</ref> A 2018 study tried to identify such a planetary threshold for self-reinforcing feedbacks and found that even a {{convert|2|C-change}} increase in temperature over pre-industrial levels may be enough to trigger such a hothouse Earth scenario.<ref>{{harvnb|Phys.org, 6 August|2018|p=}}; {{harvnb|Steffen|Rockström|Richardson|Lenton|2018|p=}}; {{harvnb|The Guardian, 7 August|2018}}.</ref>
{{Further|Effects of climate change on oceans|Effects of climate change on biomes}}
Recent warming has driven many terrestrial and freshwater species poleward and towards higher ].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018|p=218}}.</ref> For instance, the range of hundreds of North American ]s has shifted northward at an average rate of 1.5&nbsp;km/year over the past 55 years.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Martins |first1=Paulo Mateus |last2=Anderson |first2=Marti J. |last3=Sweatman |first3=Winston L. |last4=Punnett |first4=Andrew J. |date=9 April 2024 |title=Significant shifts in latitudinal optima of North American birds |journal=] |language=en |volume=121 |issue=15 |pages=e2307525121 |doi=10.1073/pnas.2307525121 |issn=0027-8424 |pmc=11009622 |pmid=38557189 |bibcode=2024PNAS..12107525M }}</ref> Higher atmospheric {{CO2}} levels and an extended growing season have resulted in global greening. However, heatwaves and drought have reduced ] productivity in some regions. The future balance of these opposing effects is unclear.{{Sfn|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|p=133}} A related phenomenon driven by climate change is ], affecting up to 500 million hectares globally.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Deng |first1=Yuanhong |last2=Li |first2=Xiaoyan |last3=Shi |first3=Fangzhong |last4=Hu |first4=Xia |date=December 2021 |title=Woody plant encroachment enhanced global vegetation greening and ecosystem water-use efficiency |url=https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.13386 |journal=] |language=en |volume=30 |issue=12 |pages=2337–2353 |bibcode=2021GloEB..30.2337D |doi=10.1111/geb.13386 |issn=1466-822X |access-date=10 June 2024 |via=Wiley Online Library}}</ref> Climate change has contributed to the expansion of drier climate zones, such as the ] in the ].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=7}}; {{harvnb|Zeng|Yoon|2009}}.</ref> The size and speed of global warming is making ] more likely.{{Sfn|Turner|Calder|Cumming|Hughes|2020|p=1}} Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the ] of many species.{{Sfn|Urban|2015}}


The oceans have heated more slowly than the land, but plants and animals in the ocean have migrated towards the colder poles faster than species on land.<ref>{{harvnb|Poloczanska|Brown|Sydeman|Kiessling|2013}}; {{harvnb|Lenoir|Bertrand|Comte|Bourgeaud|2020}}</ref> Just as on land, ] occur more frequently due to climate change, harming a wide range of organisms such as corals, ], and ].<ref>{{harvnb|Smale|Wernberg|Oliver|Thomsen|2019}}</ref> Ocean acidification makes it harder for ] such as ]s, ]s and corals to ]; and heatwaves have ].{{Sfn|IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=13}} ] enhanced by climate change and ] lower oxygen levels, disrupt ]s and cause great loss of marine life.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=510}}</ref> Coastal ecosystems are under particular stress. Almost half of global wetlands have disappeared due to climate change and other human impacts.{{Sfn|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=451}} Plants have come under increased stress from damage by insects.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Azevedo-Schmidt |first1=Lauren |last2=Meineke |first2=Emily K. |last3=Currano |first3=Ellen D. |date=18 October 2022 |title=Insect herbivory within modern forests is greater than fossil localities |journal=] |language=en |volume=119 |issue=42 |pages=e2202852119 |doi=10.1073/pnas.2202852119 |doi-access=free |pmid=36215482 |pmc=9586316 |bibcode=2022PNAS..11902852A |issn=0027-8424 }}</ref>
<gallery mode="packed" caption="Biosphere impacts attributed to climate change">

File:Bleachedcoral.jpg|Repeated ] has been damaging the ] and threatens reefs worldwide.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://sos.noaa.gov/datasets/coral-reef-risk-outlook/|title=Coral Reef Risk Outlook|access-date=4 April 2020|publisher=]|quote=At present, local human activities, coupled with past thermal stress, threaten an estimated 75 percent of the world’s reefs. By 2030, estimates predict more than 90% of the world's reefs will be threatened by local human activities, warming, and acidification, with nearly 60% facing high, very high, or critical threat levels.|url-status=live}}</ref>
{| class="center toccolours"
File:National Park Service Thawing permafrost (27759123542).jpg|] as the Arctic warms, undermining infrastructure and ].<ref name="Turetsky 2019"/>
|+ '''Climate change impacts on the environment'''
File:Endangered arctic - starving polar bear.jpg|The U.S. Geological Survey projects that reduced sea ice from climate change will lower the population of ]s by two-thirds by 2050.<ref>{{Cite web|ref=harv|publisher=]|url=https://www.nwf.org/en/Educational-Resources/Wildlife-Guide/Mammals/Polar-Bear|title=Global Warming and Polar Bears – National Wildlife Federation|access-date=16 October 2017|quote=As climate change melts sea ice, the U.S. Geological Survey projects that two-thirds of polar bears will disappear by 2050.|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171017095042/https://www.nwf.org/en/Educational-Resources/Wildlife-Guide/Mammals/Polar-Bear|archive-date=17 October 2017|url-status=live}}{{harvnb|Amstrup|Marcot|Douglas|2013|p=213}}</ref>
|<gallery mode="packed" heights="120" style="line-height:120%">
File:Mountain Pine Beetle damage in the Fraser Experimental Forest 2007.jpg|In Colorado a greater number of mountain pine beetles survive winters, killing large swaths of forest.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.nps.gov/romo/learn/nature/climatechange.htm|title=What a changing climate means for Rocky Mountain National Park|publisher=]|access-date=9 April 2020|quote=A greater number of mountain pine beetles (Dendroctonus ponderosae) survive the winter season, contributing to a longer and more severe pine beetle outbreak that is changing the landscape on trails and in campgrounds throughout the park.|url-status=live}}</ref>
File:Bleachedcoral.jpg|alt=Underwater photograph of branching coral that is bleached white|]. ] from ] has damaged the ] and threatens ]s worldwide.<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://sos.noaa.gov/datasets/coral-reef-risk-outlook/ |title=Coral Reef Risk Outlook |date=2 January 2012 |access-date=4 April 2020 |publisher=] |quote=At present, local human activities, coupled with past thermal stress, threaten an estimated 75 percent of the world's reefs. By 2030, estimates predict more than 90% of the world's reefs will be threatened by local human activities, warming, and acidification, with nearly 60% facing high, very high, or critical threat levels.}}</ref>
File:Orroral Valley Fire viewed from Tuggeranong January 2020.jpg|alt=Photograph of evening in a valley settlement. The skyline in the hills beyond is lit up red from the fires.|]. Drought and high temperatures worsened the ].<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 7 January|2020}}.</ref>
File:National Park Service Thawing permafrost (27759123542).jpg|alt=The green landscape is interrupted by a huge muddy scar where the ground has subsided.|]. ] undermine infrastructure and ], a greenhouse gas.<ref name="Turetsky 2019"/>
File:Endangered arctic - starving polar bear (cropped).jpg|alt=An emaciated polar bear stands atop the remains of a melting ice floe.|]. Many arctic animals rely on sea ice, which has been disappearing in a warming Arctic.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch28|2014|p=1596}}: "Within 50 to 70 years, loss of hunting habitats may lead to elimination of polar bears from seasonally ice-covered areas, where two-thirds of their world population currently live."</ref>
File:Mountain Pine Beetle damage in the Fraser Experimental Forest 2007.jpg|alt=Photograph of a large area of forest. The green trees are interspersed with large patches of damaged or dead trees turning purple-brown and light red.|]. Mild winters allow more ] to survive to kill large swaths of forest.<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://www.nps.gov/romo/learn/nature/climatechange.htm |title=What a changing climate means for Rocky Mountain National Park |publisher=] |access-date=9 April 2020}}</ref>
</gallery> </gallery>
|}


===Biosphere=== === Humans ===
<!-- Warning: Do not change the above title without also changing places where the gallery below is transcluded (this article summary, and effects of climate change article). -->
{{Main||Climate change and ecosystems}}
{{Main|Effects of climate change}}
In terrestrial ]s, the earlier arrival of spring, as well as poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming.<ref name="ipcc.ch">{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 SYR|2007}}, {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181223121017/https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/spms1.html |date=23 December 2018 }}.</ref> It is expected that most ecosystems will be affected by higher atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> levels and higher global temperatures.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch4|2007}},
[[File:20211109 Frequency of extreme weather for different degrees of global warming - bar chart IPCC AR6 WG1 SPM.svg|thumb|upright=1.35 |Extreme weather will be progressively more common as the Earth warms.<ref name=IPCC6AR_ExtremeEvents>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|loc=Fig. SPM.6
{{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190627230745/https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch4s4-es.html |date=27 June 2019 }}, p. 213.</ref> Global warming has contributed to the expansion of drier climatic zones, such as, probably, the ] in the ].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=7}}; {{harvnb|Zeng|Yoon|2009}}.</ref> Without substantial actions to reduce the rate of global warming, land-based ecosystems risk major shifts in their composition and structure.<ref>{{harvnb|The Washington Post, 30 August|2018}}.</ref> Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the ] of many species and reduced diversity of ecosystems.{{Sfn|Urban|2015|p=}} Rising temperatures push bees to their physiological limits, and could cause the extinction of their populations.<ref>{{harvnb|ScienceDaily, 28 June|2018}}.</ref>
|page=SPM-23}}</ref>]]
The effects of climate change are impacting humans everywhere in the world.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Lenton |first1=Timothy M. |last2=Xu |first2=Chi |last3=Abrams |first3=Jesse F. |last4=Ghadiali |first4=Ashish |last5=Loriani |first5=Sina |last6=Sakschewski |first6=Boris |last7=Zimm |first7=Caroline |last8=Ebi |first8=Kristie L. |last9=Dunn |first9=Robert R. |last10=Svenning |first10=Jens-Christian |last11=Scheffer |first11=Marten |title=Quantifying the human cost of global warming |journal=] |year=2023 |volume=6 |issue=10 |pages=1237–1247 |doi=10.1038/s41893-023-01132-6 |doi-access=free|bibcode=2023NatSu...6.1237L |hdl=10871/132650 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> Impacts can be observed on all continents and ocean regions,<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch18|2014|pp=983, 1008}}</ref> with low-latitude, ] facing the greatest risk.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch19|2014|p=1077}}.</ref> Continued warming has potentially "severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts" for people and ecosystems.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=SPM 2|p=8}}</ref> The risks are unevenly distributed, but are generally greater for disadvantaged people in developing and developed countries.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=SPM 2.3|p=13}}</ref>


==== Health and food ====
The ocean has heated more slowly than the land, but plants and animals in the ocean have migrated towards the colder poles as fast as or faster than species on land.<ref>{{harvnb|Poloczanska|Brown|Sydeman|Kiessling|2013}}.</ref> Just as on land, heat waves in the ocean occur more due to climate change, with harmful effects found on a wide range of organisms such as corals, ], and ].<ref>{{harvnb|Smale|Wernberg|Oliver|Thomsen|2019}}.</ref> Ocean acidification threatens damage to ], ], ], and other ]s of value to society.<ref>{{Harvnb|UNEP|2010|pp=4–8}}.</ref> Higher oceanic CO<sub>2</sub> may affect the brain and central nervous system of certain fish species, which reduces their ability to hear, smell, and evade predators.<ref>{{harvnb|ScienceDaily, 21 January|2012}}.</ref>
{{Main|Effects of climate change on agriculture#Global food security and undernutrition|Effects of climate change on human health}}
The ] calls climate change one of the biggest threats to global health in the 21st century.<ref name=WHO_Nov_2023/> Scientists have warned about the irreversible harms it poses.<ref name=Romanello_et_al_2023>{{harvnb|Romanello|2023}}</ref> ] events affect public health, and ] and ].<ref name=nca2018_ch14>{{harvnb|Ebi et al.|2018}}</ref><ref name=Romanello_et_al_2022>{{harvnb|Romanello|2022}}</ref><ref name=IPCC_AR6_WG2_p9>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 SPM|2022|p=9}}</ref> ] lead to increased illness and death.<ref name=nca2018_ch14/><ref name=Romanello_et_al_2022/> Climate change increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events.<ref name=Romanello_et_al_2022/><ref name=IPCC_AR6_WG2_p9/> It can affect transmission of ], such as ] and ].<ref name=Romanello_et_al_2023/><ref name=nca2018_ch14/> According to the ], 14.5&nbsp;million more deaths are expected due to climate change by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|World Economic Forum|2024|p=4}}</ref> 30% of the global population currently live in areas where extreme heat and humidity are already associated with excess deaths.<ref name=Carbon_Brief_2017>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 19 June|2017}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Mora et al.|2017}}</ref> By 2100, 50% to 75% of the global population would live in such areas.<ref name=Carbon_Brief_2017/><ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 Ch6|2022|p=988}}</ref>


While total ]s have been increasing in the past 50 years due to agricultural improvements, ].<ref name=IPCC_AR6_WG2_p9/> ] in multiple regions.<ref name=IPCC_AR6_WG2_p9/> While ] has been positively affected in some high ] areas, mid- and low-latitude areas have been negatively affected.<ref name=IPCC_AR6_WG2_p9/> According to the World Economic Forum, an increase in ] in certain regions could cause 3.2&nbsp;million deaths from ] by 2050 and ] in children.<ref>{{harvnb|World Economic Forum|2024|p=24}}</ref> With 2&nbsp;°C warming, global ] headcounts could decline by 7–10% by 2050, as less animal feed will be available.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 Ch5|2022|p=748}}</ref> If the emissions continue to increase for the rest of century, then over 9 million climate-related deaths would occur annually by 2100.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 Technical Summary|2022|p=63}}</ref>
=== Humans ===

{{Further|Effects of global warming on human health|Climate security|Economics of global warming|Climate change and agriculture|}}
==== Livelihoods and inequality ====
The ], mostly due to warming and shifts in ], have been detected worldwide. The social impacts of climate change will be uneven across the world.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Technical Summary|2014|pp=93–94}}, FAQ 7 and 8.</ref> All regions are at risk of experiencing negative impacts,<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Technical Summary|2014}}, Section B-3: "Regional Risks and Potential for Adaptation", pp. 27–30.</ref> with low-latitude, ] facing the greatest risk.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch19|2014|p=1077}}.</ref> Global warming has likely already increased global economic inequality, and is projected to do so in the future.<ref>{{harvnb|Diffenbaugh|Burke|2019}}; {{harvnb|The Guardian, 26 January|2015}}; {{harvnb|Burke|Davis|Diffenbaugh|2018}}.</ref> ] are now observable on all continents and across ocean regions.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch18|2014|pp=983, 1008}}.</ref> The Arctic, ], small islands, and ]n ] are regions that are likely to be especially affected by future climate change.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 SYR|2007}}, {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181223030103/https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains3-3-3.html |date=23 December 2018 }}.</ref> Many risks increase with higher magnitudes of global warming.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch19|2014|pp=1073–1080}}.</ref>
{{Further|Economic analysis of climate change|Climate security}}
Economic damages due to climate change may be severe and there is a chance of disastrous consequences.<ref>{{harvnb|DeFries|Edenhofer|Halliday|Heal|2019|p=3}}; {{harvnb|Krogstrup|Oman|2019|p=10}}.</ref> Severe impacts are expected in South-East Asia and ], where most of the local inhabitants are dependent upon natural and agricultural resources.<ref name="FAO-2021">{{Cite book |url=https://doi.org/10.4060/cb7431en |title=Women's leadership and gender equality in climate action and disaster risk reduction in Africa − A call for action |publisher=] & The African Risk Capacity (ARC) Group |year=2021 |isbn=978-92-5-135234-2 |location=Accra |doi=10.4060/cb7431en |s2cid=243488592 }}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch13|2014|pp=796–797}}</ref> ] can prevent outdoor labourers from working. If warming reaches 4&nbsp;°C then labour capacity in those regions could be reduced by 30 to 50%.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022|p=725}}</ref> The ] estimates that between 2016 and 2030, climate change could drive over 120 million people into extreme poverty without adaptation.{{Sfn|Hallegatte|Bangalore|Bonzanigo|Fay|2016|p=12}}

Inequalities based on wealth and social status have worsened due to climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch13|2014|p=796}}.</ref> Major difficulties in mitigating, adapting to, and recovering from climate shocks are faced by marginalized people who have less control over resources.<ref name="Grabe-2014">Grabe, Grose and Dutt, 2014; FAO, 2011; FAO, 2021a; Fisher and Carr, 2015; IPCC, 2014; Resurrección et al., 2019; UNDRR, 2019; Yeboah et al., 2019.</ref><ref name="FAO-2021" /> ], who are subsistent on their land and ecosystems, will face endangerment to their wellness and lifestyles due to climate change.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Climate Change {{!}} United Nations For Indigenous Peoples |url=https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/climate-change.html |access-date=29 April 2022 |website=United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs}}</ref> An expert elicitation concluded that the role of climate change in ] has been small compared to factors such as socio-economic inequality and state capabilities.{{Sfn|Mach|Kraan|Adger|Buhaug|2019}}

While women are not inherently more at risk from climate change and shocks, limits on women's resources and discriminatory gender norms constrain their adaptive capacity and resilience.<ref name="FAO-2023">{{Cite book |url=https://doi.org/10.4060/cc5060en |title=The status of women in agrifood systems - Overview |publisher=FAO |year=2023 |location=Rome |doi=10.4060/cc5060en |s2cid=258145984 |language=EN}}</ref> For example, women's work burdens, including hours worked in agriculture, tend to decline less than men's during climate shocks such as heat stress.<ref name="FAO-2023" />

====Climate migration====
{{main|Climate migration}}
Low-lying islands and coastal communities are threatened by sea level rise, which makes ] more common. Sometimes, land is permanently lost to the sea.{{Sfn|IPCC SROCC Ch4|2019|p=328}} This could lead to ] for people in island nations, such as the ] and ].<ref>{{harvnb|UNHCR|2011|p=3}}.</ref> In some regions, the rise in temperature and humidity may be too severe for humans to adapt to.{{sfn|Matthews|2018|p=399}} With worst-case climate change, models project that almost one-third of humanity might live in Sahara-like uninhabitable and extremely hot climates.<ref>{{harvnb|Balsari|Dresser|Leaning|2020}}</ref>

These factors can drive ] or ], within and between countries.<ref name="Cattaneo-2019">{{harvnb|Cattaneo|Beine|Fröhlich|Kniveton|2019}}; {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022|pp=15, 53}}</ref> More people are expected to be displaced because of sea level rise, extreme weather and conflict from increased competition over natural resources. Climate change may also increase vulnerability, leading to "trapped populations" who are not able to move due to a lack of resources.<ref>{{harvnb|Flavell|2014|p=38}}; {{harvnb|Kaczan|Orgill-Meyer|2020}}</ref>


{| class="center toccolours"
<gallery mode="packed" caption="Human impacts attributed to climate change">
|+ '''Climate change impacts on people'''
File:Village Telly in Mali.jpg|] in the ]. More rapid evaporation and loss of glaciers result in fertile areas becoming arid.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://climateanalytics.org/media/ssa_final_published.pdf |title=Managing Climate Reality in Sub-Sahara Africa |publisher=Morganorioha.com |date=2018 |author=Orioha, M. K. |accessdate=April 8, 2020}}</ref>
|<gallery mode="packed" heights="120" style="line-height:120%">
File:Acqua alta in Piazza San Marco-original.jpg|], ], and other coastal cities increases as sea levels rise.<ref name="NOAAnuisance">{{cite web|url=http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/nuisance-flooding.html |title=What is nuisance flooding? |author=] |accessdate=April 8, 2020}}</ref>
File:Village Telly in Mali.jpg|Environmental migration. Sparser rainfall leads to ] that harms agriculture and can displace populations. Shown: Telly, Mali (2008).<ref>{{harvnb|Serdeczny|Adams|Baarsch|Coumou|2016}}.</ref>
File:US Navy 071120-M-8966H-005 An aerial view over southern Bangladesh reveals extensive flooding as a result of Cyclone Sidr.jpg|Southern Bangladesh after the passage of ]. Increased rainfall from storms and rising sea levels can lead to catastrophic flooding.<ref>{{harvnb|Kabir|Khan|Ball|Caldwell|2016}}.</ref>
File:Corn shows the affect of drought.jpg|]. Droughts, rising temperatures, and extreme weather negatively impact agriculture. Shown: Texas, US (2013).<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|pp=439, 464}}.</ref>
File:Orroral Valley Fire viewed from Tuggeranong January 2020.jpg|] were historically large, likely due to climate change causing drought and higher temperatures.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/media-reaction-australias-bushfires-and-climate-change|title=Media reaction: Australia's bushfires and climate change|last1=Dunne |first1=Daisy |last2=Gabbatiss |first2=Josh |last3=Mcsweeny |first3=Robert |publisher=]|date=7 January 2020|website=Carbon Brief|language=en|access-date=11 January 2020}}</ref>
File:July 25 2019 Europe max temperatures.png|Heat waves like the one in ] are becoming more common and extreme.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/heat-waves-and-climate-change |title=Heat Waves and Climate Change |publisher=] |accessdate=April 10, 2020}}</ref> File:Acqua alta in Piazza San Marco-original.jpg|]. Sea-level rise increases flooding in low-lying coastal regions. Shown: ] (2004).<ref name="NOAAnuisance">{{cite web|url=http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/nuisance-flooding.html |title=What is nuisance flooding? |author=] |access-date=April 8, 2020}}</ref>
File:US Navy 071120-M-8966H-005 An aerial view over southern Bangladesh reveals extensive flooding as a result of Cyclone Sidr.jpg|]. Bangladesh after ] (2007) is an example of catastrophic flooding from increased rainfall.<ref>{{harvnb|Kabir|Khan|Ball|Caldwell|2016}}.</ref>
File:Argentina geos5 202211.jpg|Heat wave intensification. Events like the ] are becoming more common.<ref>{{harvnb|Van Oldenborgh|Philip|Kew|Vautard|2019}}.</ref>
</gallery> </gallery>
|}


== Reducing and recapturing emissions ==
{{detail|Climate change mitigation}}
]
Climate change can be mitigated by reducing the rate at which greenhouse gases are emitted into the atmosphere, and by increasing the rate at which carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014|p=125}}.</ref> To limit global warming to less than 1.5&nbsp;°C global greenhouse gas emissions needs to be ] by 2050, or by 2070 with a 2&nbsp;°C target.<ref name="IPCC-2018 p12">{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=12}}</ref> This requires far-reaching, systemic changes on an unprecedented scale in energy, land, cities, transport, buildings, and industry.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=15}}</ref>


The ] estimates that countries need to triple their ] within the next decade to limit global warming to 2&nbsp;°C. An even greater level of reduction is required to meet the 1.5&nbsp;°C goal.<ref>{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|p=XX}}</ref> With pledges made under the Paris Agreement as of 2024, there would be a 66% chance that global warming is kept under 2.8&nbsp;°C by the end of the century (range: 1.9–3.7&nbsp;°C, depending on exact implementation and technological progress). When only considering current policies, this raises to 3.1&nbsp;°C.{{sfn|United Nations Environment Programme|2024|pp=33, 34}} Globally, limiting warming to 2&nbsp;°C may result in higher economic benefits than economic costs.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3 Ch3|2022|p=300}}: "The global benefits of pathways limiting warming to 2&nbsp;°C (>67%) outweigh global mitigation costs over the 21st century, if aggregated economic impacts of climate change are at the moderate to high end of the assessed range, and a weight consistent with economic theory is given to economic impacts over the long term. This holds true even without accounting for benefits in other sustainable development dimensions or nonmarket damages from climate change (medium confidence)."</ref>


Although there is no single pathway to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2&nbsp;°C,<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=109}}.</ref> most scenarios and strategies see a major increase in the use of renewable energy in combination with increased energy efficiency measures to generate the needed greenhouse gas reductions.<ref name="Teske, ed. 2019 xxiii">{{harvnb|Teske, ed.|2019|p=xxiii}}.</ref> To reduce pressures on ecosystems and enhance their carbon sequestration capabilities, changes would also be necessary in agriculture and forestry,<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, 8 August|2019}}</ref> such as preventing ] and restoring natural ecosystems by ].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018|p=266}}: "Where reforestation is the restoration of natural ecosystems, it benefits both carbon sequestration and conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services."</ref>
==== Food and water ====
] will probably be negatively affected in low-latitude countries, while effects at northern latitudes may be positive or negative.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch7|2014|p=488}}.</ref> Global warming of around 4&nbsp;°C relative to late 20th century levels could pose a large risk to global and regional food security.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Summary for Policymakers|2014|p=18}}.</ref> The impact of climate change on crop productivity for the four major crops was negative for wheat and maize, and neutral for soy and rice, in the years 1960–2013.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch7|2014|pp=491–492}}.</ref> Up to an additional 183&nbsp;million people worldwide, particularly those with lower incomes, are at risk of hunger as a consequence of warming.<ref name="IPCC SRCCL Ch5 2019 5">{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|p=439}}.</ref> While increased {{CO2}} levels help crop growth at lower temperature increases, those crops do become less nutritious.<ref name="IPCC SRCCL Ch5 2019 5"/> Based on local and indigenous knowledge, climate change is already affecting food security in mountain regions in South America and Asia, and in various drylands, particularly in Africa.<ref name="IPCC SRCCL Ch5 2019 5"/> Regions dependent on glacier water, regions that are already dry, and small islands are also at increased risk of water stress due to climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|Holding|Allen|Foster|Hsieh|2016}}; {{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch3|2014|pp=232–233}}.</ref>


Other approaches to mitigating climate change have a higher level of risk. Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5&nbsp;°C typically project the large-scale use of ] over the 21st century.<ref>{{harvnb|Bui|Adjiman|Bardow|Anthony|2018|p=1068}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=17}}</ref> There are concerns, though, about over-reliance on these technologies, and environmental impacts.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018|p=34}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=17}}</ref> ] (SRM) is under discussion as a possible supplement to reductions in emissions. However, SRM raises significant ethical and ] concerns, and its risks are not well understood.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=347–352}}</ref>
==== Livelihoods, industry, and infrastructure ====
In small islands and ]s, ] from sea level rise is expected to threaten vital infrastructure and human settlements.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 SYR|2007}}, {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181223030103/https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains3-3-3.html |date=23 December 2018 }};
{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch16|2007}}, {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181223073618/https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch16s16-es.html |date=23 December 2018 }}.</ref> This could lead to ] in countries with low-lying areas such as ], as well as ] for populations in island nations, such as the ] and ].<ref>{{harvnb|UNHCR|2011}}.</ref> Climate change can be an important driver of ], both within and between countries.<ref>{{harvnb|UN Environment, 25 October|2018}}; {{harvnb|UNFCCC, 17 October|2017}}.</ref>


=== Clean energy ===
The majority of severe impacts of climate change are expected in ] and ], where existing poverty is exacerbated.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch13|2014|pp=796–797}}.</ref> Current inequalities between men and women, between rich and poor and between people of different ethnicity have been observed to worsen as a consequence of climate variability and climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch13|2014|p=796}}.</ref> Existing stresses include poverty, political conflicts, and ] degradation. Regions may even become uninhabitable, with humidity and temperatures reaching levels too high for humans to survive.<ref>{{harvnb|Sherwood|Huber|2010}}.</ref> In June 2019, U.N. special rapporteur ] indicated that global warming could "push more than 120 million more people into poverty by 2030 and will have the most severe impact in poor countries, regions, and the places poor people live and work".<ref>{{cite news|author=<!--Staff writer(s); no by-line.-->|url=https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=24735&LangID=E|title=UN expert condemns failure to address impact of climate change on poverty|date=25 June 2019|work=]|access-date=9 July 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190710085329/https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=24735&LangID=E|archive-date=10 July 2019}}.</ref>
{{Main|Sustainable energy|Sustainable transport}}
] sources even as ] have begun rapidly increasing.<ref>{{harvnb|Friedlingstein|Jones|O'Sullivan|Andrew|2019}}</ref>]]
]
Renewable energy is key to limiting climate change.<ref name="United Nations Environment Programme 2019 46" /> For decades, fossil fuels have accounted for roughly 80% of the world's energy use.<ref>{{harvnb|IEA World Energy Outlook 2023|pp=18}}</ref> The remaining share has been split between nuclear power and renewables (including ], ], wind and solar power and ]).<ref>{{harvnb|REN21|2020|p=32|loc=Fig.1}}.</ref> Fossil fuel use is expected to peak in absolute terms prior to 2030 and then to decline, with coal use experiencing the sharpest reductions.<ref>{{harvnb|IEA World Energy Outlook 2023|pp=18,26}}</ref> Renewables represented 86% of all new electricity generation installed in 2023.<ref name="IRENA">{{cite web |title=Record Growth in Renewables, but Progress Needs to be Equitable |url=https://www.irena.org/News/pressreleases/2024/Mar/Record-Growth-in-Renewables-but-Progress-Needs-to-be-Equitable |website=IRENA |date=27 March 2024}}</ref> Other forms of clean energy, such as nuclear and hydropower, currently have a larger share of the energy supply. However, their future growth forecasts appear limited in comparison.<ref>{{harvnb|IEA|2021|p=57, Fig 2.5}}; {{harvnb|Teske|Pregger|Naegler|Simon|2019|p=180, Table 8.1}}</ref>


While ] and onshore wind are now among the cheapest forms of adding new power generation capacity in many locations,<ref>{{harvnb|Our World in Data-Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?}}; {{harvnb| IEA – Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2020}}</ref> green energy policies are needed to achieve a rapid transition from fossil fuels to renewables.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/04/04/ipcc-ar6-wgiii-pressrelease/ |title=IPCC Working Group III report: Mitigation of Climate Change |date=4 April 2022 |access-date=19 January 2024 |publisher=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}}</ref> To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, renewable energy would become the dominant form of electricity generation, rising to 85% or more by 2050 in some scenarios. Investment in coal would be eliminated and coal use nearly phased out by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|loc=Figure 2.15|p=131}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Teske|2019|pp=409–410}}.</ref>
==== Health and security ====
Generally, ] will be more negative than positive.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch11|2014|p=742}}; {{harvnb|Costello|Abbas|Allen|Ball|2009}}; {{harvnb|Watts|Adger|Agnolucci|Blackstock|2015}}.</ref> Impacts include the direct effects of extreme weather, leading to injury and loss of life;<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch11|2014|pp=720–723}}.</ref> and indirect effects, such as ] brought on by ]s.<ref>{{harvnb|Costello|Abbas|Allen|Ball|2009}}; {{harvnb|Watts|Adger|Agnolucci|Blackstock|2015}}; {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch11|2014|p=713}}.</ref> Various ] are more easily transmitted in a warming climate, such as ], which affects children most severely, and ].{{Sfn|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|p=|pp=1836, 1848}} Young children are further the most vulnerable to food shortages, and together with older people to extreme heat.{{Sfn|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|p=|pp=1841, 1847}} Temperature rise has been connected to increased numbers of suicides.<ref>{{harvnb|USA Today, 13 July|2018}}.</ref> Climate change has been linked to an increase in violent conflict by amplifying poverty and economic shocks, which are well-documented drivers of these conflicts.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Summary for Policymakers|2014|p=20}}.</ref> Links have been made between a wide range of violent behaviour including fist fights, ]s, ], and ]s.<ref>{{harvnb|The Washington Post, 22 October|2014}}; {{harvnb|Ranson|2014}}; {{harvnb|Marshall|Hsiang|Edward|2014}}; {{harvnb|National Review, 27 February|2014}}.</ref>


Electricity generated from renewable sources would also need to become the main energy source for heating and transport.<ref>{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|loc=Table ES.3|p=XXIII}}; {{harvnb|Teske, ed.|2019|p=xxvii, Fig.5}}.</ref> Transport can switch away from ] vehicles and towards ]s, public transit, and ] (cycling and walking).<ref name="IPCC-2018 p142">{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|pp=142–144}}; {{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|loc=Table ES.3 & p. 49}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |year=2016 |title=Transport emissions |url=https://ec.europa.eu/clima/eu-action/transport-emissions_en |access-date=2 January 2022 |website=Climate action |publisher=] |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211010225533/https://ec.europa.eu/clima/eu-action/transport-emissions_en |archive-date=10 October 2021 |url-status=live}}</ref> For shipping and flying, low-carbon fuels would reduce emissions.<ref name="IPCC-2018 p142" /> Heating could be increasingly decarbonized with technologies like ]s.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch9|2014|p=697}}; {{harvnb|NREL|2017|pp=vi, 12}}</ref>
== Responses ==
]
]


There are obstacles to the continued rapid growth of clean energy, including renewables.<ref>{{harvnb|Berrill|Arvesen|Scholz|Gils|2016}}.</ref> Wind and solar produce energy ]. Traditionally, ] and fossil fuel power plants have been used when variable energy production is low. Going forward, ] can be expanded, ] can be matched, and long-distance ] can smooth variability of renewable outputs.<ref name="United Nations Environment Programme 2019 46">{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|p=46}}; {{harvnb|Vox, 20 September|2019}}; {{cite journal |title=The Role of Firm Low-Carbon Electricity Resources in Deep Decarbonization of Power Generation |year=2018 |last1=Sepulveda |first1=Nestor A. |last2=Jenkins |first2=Jesse D. |last3=De Sisternes |first3=Fernando J. |last4=Lester |first4=Richard K. |journal=] |volume=2 |issue=11 |pages=2403–2420 |doi=10.1016/j.joule.2018.08.006 |doi-access=free|bibcode=2018Joule...2.2403S }}</ref> Bioenergy is often not carbon-neutral and may have negative consequences for food security.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=324–325}}.</ref> The growth of nuclear power is constrained by controversy around ], ], and ].<ref>{{Citec|last1=Gill |first1=Matthew |last2=Livens |first2=Francis |last3=Peakman |first3=Aiden |in=Letcher |year=2020 |pages=147–149 |chapter=Nuclear Fission}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Horvath |first1=Akos |last2=Rachlew |first2=Elisabeth |date=January 2016 |title=Nuclear power in the 21st century: Challenges and possibilities |journal=] |volume=45 |issue=Suppl 1 |pages=S38–49 |doi=10.1007/s13280-015-0732-y |issn=1654-7209 |pmc=4678124 |pmid=26667059|bibcode=2016Ambio..45S..38H }}</ref> Hydropower growth is limited by the fact that the best sites have been developed, and new projects are confronting increased social and environmental concerns.<ref>{{cite web |title=Hydropower |url=https://www.iea.org/reports/hydropower |website=iea.org |publisher=] |access-date=12 October 2020 |quote=Hydropower generation is estimated to have increased by over 2% in 2019 owing to continued recovery from drought in Latin America as well as strong capacity expansion and good water availability in China (...) capacity expansion has been losing speed. This downward trend is expected to continue, due mainly to less large-project development in China and Brazil, where concerns over social and environmental impacts have restricted projects.}}</ref>
Mitigation of and adaptation to climate change are two complementary responses to global warming. Successful adaptation is easier if there are substantial emission reductions. Many of the countries that have contributed least to global greenhouse gas emissions are among the most vulnerable to climate change, which raises questions about justice and fairness with regard to mitigation and adaptation.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=Section 3|p=17}}.</ref>


] improves human health by minimizing climate change as well as reducing air pollution deaths,<ref>{{harvnb|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|p=1854}}; {{harvnb|WHO|2018|p=27}}</ref> which were estimated at 7 million annually in 2016.<ref>{{harvnb|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|p=1837}}; {{harvnb|WHO|2016}}</ref> Meeting the Paris Agreement goals that limit warming to a 2&nbsp;°C increase could save about a million of those lives per year by 2050, whereas limiting global warming to 1.5&nbsp;°C could save millions and simultaneously increase ] and reduce poverty.<ref>{{harvnb|WHO|2018|p=27}}; {{harvnb|Vandyck|Keramidas|Kitous|Spadaro|2018}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018|p=97}}: "Limiting warming to 1.5&nbsp;°C can be achieved synergistically with poverty alleviation and improved energy security and can provide large public health benefits through improved air quality, preventing millions of premature deaths. However, specific mitigation measures, such as bioenergy, may result in trade-offs that require consideration."</ref> Improving air quality also has economic benefits which may be larger than mitigation costs.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3|2022|p=300}}</ref>
=== Mitigation ===
{{main|Climate change mitigation}}
Climate change can be mitigated through the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions or the enhancement of the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.<ref>
{{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150121083052/http://www.globalchange.gov/climate-change/glossary#letter_m |date=21 January 2015 }}, in {{harvnb|USGCRP|2015}}.</ref>
Near- and long-term trends in the global energy system are inconsistent with limiting global warming to below 1.5 or 2&nbsp;°C relative to pre-industrial levels.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch6|2014|p=418}}; {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3 Summary for Policymakers|2014|pp=10–13}}.</ref> Pledges made as part of the ] would lead to about 3&nbsp;°C of warming at the end of the 21st century, relative to pre-industrial levels.<ref>{{harvnb|Climate Action Tracker, 11 December|2018}}.</ref> To keep warming under 1.5&nbsp;°C, a far-reaching system change on an unprecedented scale is necessary in energy, land, cities, transport, buildings, and industry:<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=15}}.</ref> but globally the benefits of keeping warming under 2&nbsp;°C exceed the costs.<ref name="Sampedro 2020">{{harvnb|Sampedro|Smith|Arto|González-Eguino|2020}}.</ref>


==== Technology ==== === Energy conservation ===
{{Main|Efficient energy use|Energy conservation}}
] technologies such as ], ] have seen substantial progress over the last few years, but ], and ] have not improved similarly.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|p=315}}.</ref> ] are currently the cheapest source of new power generation<ref>{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|p=XXII}}.</ref> but require ] for a continuous supply. Another approach is the installation of wide-area ]s in order to minimize local fluctuations of wind and solar energy.<ref>{{harvnb|Fowler|Baum|Borth|Levine|2019|p=III}}.</ref> In addition to the expansion of renewable energy, decarbonisation in the energy sector also requires ] and building a smarter and more flexible energy grid.<ref>{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|p=46}}.</ref> The use of ] may bring negative consequences for food security.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=324–325}}.</ref> Further measures in the energy sector include ] and increased ] and decarbonizing ]s and ].<ref>{{harvnb|National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine|2019}}.</ref>
Reducing energy demand is another major aspect of reducing emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=97}}</ref> If less energy is needed, there is more flexibility for clean energy development. It also makes it easier to manage the electricity grid, and minimizes ] infrastructure development.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|p=29}}; {{harvnb|IEA|2020b}}</ref> Major increases in energy efficiency investment will be required to achieve climate goals, comparable to the level of investment in renewable energy.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=155|loc=Fig. 2.27}}</ref> Several ] related changes in energy use patterns, energy efficiency investments, and funding have made forecasts for this decade more difficult and uncertain.<ref>{{harvnb|IEA|2020b}}</ref>


Strategies to reduce energy demand vary by sector. In the transport sector, passengers and freight can switch to more efficient travel modes, such as buses and trains, or use electric vehicles.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=142}}</ref> Industrial strategies to reduce energy demand include improving heating systems and motors, designing less energy-intensive products, and increasing product lifetimes.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|pp=138–140}}</ref> In the building sector the focus is on better design of new buildings, and higher levels of energy efficiency in retrofitting.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|pp=141–142}}</ref> The use of technologies like heat pumps can also increase building energy efficiency.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch9|2014|pp=686–694}}.</ref>
On land, emissions reductions can be achieved by preventing ] and preventing ]. Furthermore, certain carbon sink can be enhanced, for example, ].<ref>Table TS.3, in {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3 Technical Summary|2014|p=68}}; {{harvnb|The Guardian, 4 July|2019}}.</ref> Soils can sequester large quantities of {{CO2}} and as such better ] in croplands and grassland is an effective mitigation technology.{{Sfn|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|p=136}} Many 1.5&nbsp;°C and 2&nbsp;°C mitigation scenarios depend heavily on ]. However, these technologies are typically not yet mature and may be too expensive for large scale deployment.<ref>{{harvnb|Bednar|Obersteiner|Wagner|2019}}; {{harvnb|European Commission, 28 November|2018|p=188}}.</ref>


=== Agriculture and industry ===
].]]
{{See also|Sustainable agriculture|Green industrial policy}}
] Agriculture and forestry face a triple challenge of limiting greenhouse gas emissions, preventing the further conversion of forests to agricultural land, and meeting increases in world food demand.<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, December|2019|p=1}}</ref> A set of actions could reduce agriculture and forestry-based emissions by two-thirds from 2010 levels. These include reducing growth in demand for food and other agricultural products, increasing land productivity, protecting and restoring forests, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production.<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, December|2019|pp=1, 3}}</ref>


On the demand side, a key component of reducing emissions is shifting people towards ].<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019|p=22|loc=B.6.2}}</ref> Eliminating the production of livestock for ] would eliminate about 3/4ths of all emissions from agriculture and other land use.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|pp=487,488|loc=FIGURE 5.12}} Humans on a vegan exclusive diet would save about 7.9 Gt{{CO2}} equivalent per year by 2050 {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=51}} Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use used an average of 12 Gt{{CO2}} per year between 2007 and 2016 (23% of total anthropogenic emissions).</ref> Livestock also occupy 37% of ice-free land area on Earth and consume feed from the 12% of land area used for crops, driving deforestation and land degradation.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|pp=82, 162|loc=FIGURE 1.1}}</ref>
==== Policies and measures ====
It has been suggested that the most effective and comprehensive policy to reduce carbon emissions is a ]<ref>{{harvnb|The Economist, 7 February|2019}}.</ref> or the closely related ].<ref>{{harvnb|Hagmann|Ho|Loewenstein|2019}}.</ref> Alternative effective policies include a ] on burning coal and a phase-out of ] which promote fossil fuel use,{{snf|Bertram|Luderer|Pietzcker|Schmid|2015}} redirecting some to support the ].<ref>{{harvnb|International Institute for Sustainable Development|2019}}.</ref> The development and scaling-up of ], such as cement that produces less CO<sub>2</sub>,<ref>{{harvnb|BBC, 17 December|2018}}.</ref> is critical to achieve sufficient emission reductions for the Paris agreement goals.<ref>{{harvnb|United Nations Development Program|2019}}.</ref> ] to reduce a person's ] include: limiting ],<ref>{{harvnb|National Geographic, 11 June|2019}}.</ref> living car-free,<ref>{{harvnb|Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, 18 December|2019}}.</ref> ]<ref>{{Harvnb|BBC, 24 August|2019}}.</ref> and ].<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=22}}.</ref> ] may help society and individuals more quickly.<ref name="Rauner 2020">{{harvnb|Rauner|Bauer|Dirnaichner|Van Dingenen|2020}}.</ref> For example, policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions often also limit air pollution, improving public health.<ref name="Sampedro 2020"/>


Steel and cement production are responsible for about 13% of industrial {{CO2}} emissions. In these industries, carbon-intensive materials such as coke and lime play an integral role in the production, so that reducing {{CO2}} emissions requires research into alternative chemistries.<ref>{{cite web|title=Low and zero emissions in the steel and cement industries|url=https://www.oecd.org/greengrowth/GGSD2019_IssuePaper_CementSteel.pdf|pages=11, 19–22}}</ref> Where energy production or {{CO2}}-intensive ] continue to produce waste {{CO2}}, technology can sometimes be used to capture and store most of the gas instead of releasing it to the atmosphere.<ref name=":22">{{Cite web |last1=Lebling |first1=Katie |last2=Gangotra |first2=Ankita |last3=Hausker |first3=Karl |last4=Byrum |first4=Zachary |date=2023-11-13 |title=7 Things to Know About Carbon Capture, Utilization and Sequestration |url=https://www.wri.org/insights/carbon-capture-technology |publisher=] |language=en}}] Text was copied from this source, which is available under a ]</ref> This technology, ] (CCS), could have a critical but limited role in reducing emissions.<ref name=":22" /> It is relatively expensive<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3 Summary for Policymakers|2022|p=38}}</ref> and has been deployed only to an extent that removes around 0.1% of annual greenhouse gas emissions.<ref name=":22" />
=== Adaptation ===

=== Carbon dioxide removal ===
{{Main|Carbon dioxide removal|Carbon sequestration}}
]s, including plant growth, soil uptake, and ocean uptake (]).]]
Natural carbon sinks can be enhanced to sequester significantly larger amounts of {{CO2}} beyond naturally occurring levels.<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, 8 August|2019}}: {{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|pp=189–193}}.</ref> Reforestation and ] (planting forests where there were none before) are among the most mature sequestration techniques, although the latter raises food security concerns.<ref>{{harvnb|Kreidenweis|Humpenöder|Stevanović|Bodirsky|2016}}</ref> Farmers can promote sequestration of ] through practices such as use of winter ], reducing the intensity and frequency of ], and using compost and manure as soil amendments.<ref>{{harvnb|National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine|2019|pp=95–102}}</ref> Forest and landscape restoration yields many benefits for the climate, including greenhouse gas emissions sequestration and reduction.<ref name="Duchelle-2022" /> Restoration/recreation of coastal wetlands, ] and ]s increases the uptake of carbon into organic matter.<ref>{{harvnb|National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine|2019|pp=45–54}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Nelson |first1=J. D. J. |last2=Schoenau |first2=J. J. |last3=Malhi |first3=S. S. |date=1 October 2008 |title=Soil organic carbon changes and distribution in cultivated and restored grassland soils in Saskatchewan |url=https://doi.org/10.1007/s10705-008-9175-1 |journal=Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems |language=en |volume=82 |issue=2 |pages=137–148 |doi=10.1007/s10705-008-9175-1 |bibcode=2008NCyAg..82..137N |s2cid=24021984 |issn=1573-0867}}</ref> When carbon is sequestered in soils and in organic matter such as trees, there is a risk of the carbon being re-released into the atmosphere later through changes in land use, fire, or other changes in ecosystems.<ref>{{harvnb|Ruseva|Hedrick|Marland|Tovar|2020}}</ref>

The use of bioenergy in conjunction with carbon capture and storage (]) can result in net negative emissions as {{CO2}} is drawn from the atmosphere.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|p=125}}; {{harvnb|Bednar|Obersteiner|Wagner|2019}}.</ref> It remains highly uncertain whether carbon dioxide removal techniques will be able to play a large role in limiting warming to 1.5&nbsp;°C. Policy decisions that rely on carbon dioxide removal increase the risk of global warming rising beyond international goals.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018|p=34}}</ref>

== Adaptation ==
{{main|Climate change adaptation}} {{main|Climate change adaptation}}
Adaptation is "the process of adjustment to current or expected changes in climate and its effects".<ref name="IPCC-2022">IPCC, 2022: . In: . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, pp. 3–33, {{doi|10.1017/9781009325844.001}}.</ref>{{rp|5}} Without additional mitigation, adaptation cannot avert the risk of "severe, widespread and irreversible" impacts.{{sfn|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|p=17}} More severe climate change requires more transformative adaptation, which can be prohibitively expensive.{{sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=396–397}} The ] is unevenly distributed across different regions and populations, and developing countries generally have less.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch19|2007|p=796}}.</ref> The first two decades of the 21st century saw an increase in adaptive capacity in most low- and middle-income countries with improved access to basic ] and electricity, but progress is slow. Many countries have implemented adaptation policies. However, there is a considerable gap between necessary and available finance.{{sfn|UNEP|2018|pp=xii–xiii}}
] is "the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities".<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2 Technical Summary|2007|p=27}}: Box TS.3. Definitions of key terms.</ref> While some adaptation responses call for trade-offs, others bring synergies and co-benefits.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=Topic 4.5}}, p. 112.</ref> Examples of adaptation are improved coastline protection, better disaster management, and the development of more resistant crops.<ref>
{{Cite web |ref=harv
|title=Global climate change adaptation and mitigation
|last=NASA's Global Climate Change
|website=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet
|url=https://climate.nasa.gov/solutions/adaptation-mitigation
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190403000939/https://climate.nasa.gov/solutions/adaptation-mitigation/
|archive-date=3 April 2019
|url-status=live|access-date=12 April 2019
}}
</ref> Increased use of ] allows people to better cope with heat, but also increases energy demand.{{Sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch5|2018|p=457}} The adaptation may be planned, either in reaction to or anticipation of global warming, or spontaneous, i.e. without government intervention.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC TAR WG2 Ch18|2001}},
.
</ref> Adaptation is especially important in ] since they are predicted to bear the brunt of the effects of global warming.<ref>{{harvnb|Cole|2008}}.</ref> The capacity and potential for humans to adapt, called '']'', is unevenly distributed across different regions and populations, and developing countries generally have less capacity to adapt.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch19|2007|p=796}}.</ref> The public sector, private sector, and communities are all gaining experience with adaptation, and adaptation is becoming embedded within certain planning processes.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc= Topic 1.6}}, p. 54.</ref>


Adaptation to sea level rise consists of avoiding at-risk areas, learning to live with increased flooding, and building ]s. If that fails, ] may be needed.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Stephens |first1=Scott A. |last2=Bell |first2=Robert G. |last3=Lawrence |first3=Judy |year=2018 |title=Developing signals to trigger adaptation to sea-level rise |journal=] |volume=13 |issue=10 |at=104004 |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/aadf96 |bibcode=2018ERL....13j4004S |issn=1748-9326 |doi-access=free}}</ref> There are economic barriers for tackling dangerous heat impact. Avoiding strenuous work or having ] is not possible for everybody.{{sfn|Matthews|2018|p=402}} In agriculture, adaptation options include a switch to more sustainable diets, diversification, erosion control, and genetic improvements for increased tolerance to a changing climate.{{sfn|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|p=439}} Insurance allows for risk-sharing, but is often difficult to get for people on lower incomes.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Surminski |first1=Swenja |last2=Bouwer |first2=Laurens M. |last3=Linnerooth-Bayer |first3=Joanne |year=2016 |title=How insurance can support climate resilience |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2979 |journal=] |volume=6 |issue=4 |pages=333–334 |doi=10.1038/nclimate2979 |bibcode=2016NatCC...6..333S |issn=1758-6798}}</ref> Education, migration and ]s can reduce climate vulnerability.{{sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=336–337}} Planting mangroves or encouraging other coastal vegetation can buffer storms.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Mangroves against the storm |url=https://social.shorthand.com/IUCN_forests/nCec1jyqvn/mangroves-against-the-storm.html |access-date=20 January 2023 |website=Shorthand |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=How marsh grass could help protect us from climate change |url=https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/10/how-marsh-grass-protects-shorelines/ |access-date=20 January 2023 |website=World Economic Forum |date=24 October 2021 |language=en}}</ref>
=== Climate engineering ===
{{main|Climate engineering}}
Geoengineering or ] is the deliberate large-scale modification of the climate to counteract climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|The Royal Society|2009}}; {{harvnb|Gardiner|McKinnon|2019}}.</ref> Techniques fall generally into the categories of ] and ], although various other schemes have been suggested. A study from 2014 investigated the most common climate engineering methods and concluded that they are either ineffective or have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|Keller|Feng|Oschlies|2014|p=}}: "We find that even when applied continuously and at scales as large as currently deemed possible, all methods are, individually, either relatively ineffective with limited (<8%) warming reductions, or they have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change."
</ref>


Ecosystems adapt to climate change, a process that can be supported by human intervention. By increasing connectivity between ecosystems, species can migrate to more favourable climate conditions. Species can also be ]. Protection and restoration of natural and semi-natural areas helps build resilience, making it easier for ecosystems to adapt. Many of the actions that promote adaptation in ecosystems, also help humans adapt via ]. For instance, restoration of ] makes catastrophic fires less likely, and reduces human exposure. Giving rivers more space allows for more water storage in the natural system, reducing flood risk. Restored forest acts as a carbon sink, but planting trees in unsuitable regions can exacerbate climate impacts.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Morecroft |first1=Michael D. |last2=Duffield |first2=Simon |last3=Harley |first3=Mike |last4=Pearce-Higgins |first4=James W. |last5=Stevens |first5=Nicola |last6=Watts |first6=Olly |last7=Whitaker |first7=Jeanette |display-authors=4 |year=2019 |title=Measuring the success of climate change adaptation and mitigation in terrestrial ecosystems |journal=] |volume=366 |issue=6471 |page=eaaw9256 |doi=10.1126/science.aaw9256 |issn=0036-8075 |pmid=31831643 |s2cid=209339286 |doi-access=free}}</ref>
== Society and culture ==


There are ] but also trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Berry |first1=Pam M. |last2=Brown |first2=Sally |last3=Chen |first3=Minpeng |last4=Kontogianni |first4=Areti |last5=Rowlands |first5=Olwen |last6=Simpson |first6=Gillian |last7=Skourtos |first7=Michalis |display-authors=4 |year=2015 |title=Cross-sectoral interactions of adaptation and mitigation measures |url=https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1214-0 |journal=] |volume=128 |issue=3 |pages=381–393 |bibcode=2015ClCh..128..381B |doi=10.1007/s10584-014-1214-0 |issn=1573-1480 |s2cid=153904466|hdl=10.1007/s10584-014-1214-0 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> An example for synergy is increased food productivity, which has large benefits for both adaptation and mitigation.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|p=54}}.</ref> An example of a trade-off is that increased use of air conditioning allows people to better cope with heat, but increases energy demand. Another trade-off example is that more compact ] may reduce emissions from transport and construction, but may also increase the ] effect, exposing people to heat-related health risks.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Sharifi |first=Ayyoob |year=2020 |title=Trade-offs and conflicts between urban climate change mitigation and adaptation measures: A literature review |journal=Journal of Cleaner Production |volume=276 |page=122813 |doi=10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122813 |bibcode=2020JCPro.27622813S |s2cid=225638176 |issn=0959-6526 |url=http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652620328584}}</ref>
=== Political response ===
] ranks countries by greenhouse gas emissions (40% of score), renewable energy (20%), energy use (20%), and climate policy (20%).]]
{{main|Politics of global warming}}The ] of climate change is complex and was often framed as a ], in which all countries benefit from mitigation done by other countries, but individual countries would lose from investing in a transition to a low-carbon economy themselves. Net ]ers of fossil fuels win economically from transitioning, and net exporters face ]: fossil fuels they cannot sell.<ref>{{harvnb|Mercure|Pollitt|Viñuales|Edwards|2018}}.</ref> Furthermore, the benefits to individual countries in terms of public health and local environmental improvents of ] exceed the costs, potentially eliminating the ].<ref name="Rauner 2020"/> The geopolitics may be further complicated by the ] of ], which are necessary to produce clean technology.{{sfn|O'Sullivan|Overland|Sandalow|2017|pp=11-12}}


{| class="center toccolours"
==== UN Framework Convention ====
|+ '''Examples of adaptation methods'''
{{As of|2020}} nearly all countries in the world are parties to the ] (UNFCCC).<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-convention/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change|title=What is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change? &#124; UNFCCC|website=unfccc.int}}</ref> The objective of the Convention is to prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC|1992|loc=Article 2}}.</ref> As stated in the Convention, this requires that greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ] can adapt naturally to climate change, ] is not threatened, and ] can be sustained.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3 Ch1|2007}}, .</ref> The Framework Convention was agreed on in 1992, but global emissions have risen since then.<ref name=":2">{{harvnb|US EPA|2019}}.</ref> ] are the stage of global negotiations.<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC, accessed 12 May|2019}}.</ref>
|<gallery mode="packed" heights="120" style="line-height:120%">
File:FrontLines-EGAT 2011 Environment Photo Contest Top Entry (5842818280).jpg|] planting and other ] can reduce ].
File:Seawallventnor.jpg|]s to protect against ] worsened by ]
File:20080708 Chicago City Hall Green Roof Edit1.jpg|]s to provide cooling in cities
File:2013.02-402-294a_Pearl_millet,breeding,selfing_ICRISAT,Patancheru(Hyderabad,Andhra_Pradesh),IN_wed20feb2013.jpg|] for ]
</gallery>
|}


== Policies and politics ==
This mandate was sustained in the 1997 ] to the Framework Convention.<ref>{{harvnb|Kyoto Protocol|1997}}; {{harvnb|Liverman|2009|p=290}}.</ref> In ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, most developed countries accepted legally binding commitments to limit their emissions. These first-round commitments expired in 2012.<ref>{{harvnb|Kyoto Protocol|1997}}.</ref> United States President ] rejected the treaty on the basis that "it exempts 80% of the world, including major population centres such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy".<ref>{{harvnb|Dessai|2001|p=5}}.</ref> During these negotiations, the ] (a lobbying group in the United Nations representing ])<ref>{{harvnb|Dessai|2001|p=4}}.</ref> pushed for a mandate requiring ] to " the lead" in reducing their emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|Grubb|2003}}.</ref> This was justified on the basis that the developed countries' emissions had contributed most to the ] of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, ] were still relatively low in developing countries, and the emissions of developing countries would grow to meet their development needs.<ref>{{harvnb|Liverman|2009|p=290}}.</ref>
{{See also|Politics of climate change|Climate change mitigation#Policies}}
] have begun rapidly increasing.<ref>{{harvnb|Friedlingstein|Jones|O'Sullivan|Andrew|2019}}.</ref>]]
] ranks countries by greenhouse gas emissions (40% of score), renewable energy (20%), energy use (20%), and climate policy (20%).
In 2009 several UNFCCC Parties produced the ],<ref>{{harvnb|Müller|2010}}; {{harvnb|The New York Times, 25 May|2015}}; {{harvnb|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009}}.</ref> which has been widely portrayed as disappointing because of its low goals, leading poorer nations to reject it.<ref>{{harvnb|openDemocracy, 12 January|2010}}; {{harvnb|EUobserver, 20 December|2009}}.</ref> Nations associated with the Accord aimed to limit the future increase in global mean temperature to below {{val|2|u=°C}}.<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009}}.</ref> In 2015 all UN countries negotiated the ], which aims to keep climate change well below {{val|2|u=°C}}. The agreement replaced the Kyoto Protocol. Unlike Kyoto, no binding emission targets are set in the Paris Agreement. Instead, the procedure of regularly setting ever more ambitious goals and reevaluating these goals every five years has been made binding.<ref>
{| border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="width:100%;"
{{harvnb|Climate Focus|2015|p=3}}.</ref> The Paris Agreement reiterated that developing countries must be financially supported.<ref>{{harvnb|Climate Focus|2015|loc=Finance, technology and capacity building|p=5}}.</ref> {{As of|November 2019||df=}}, 194 states and the ] have signed the treaty and 186 states and the EU have ] or acceded to the agreement.<ref>
|-
{{Cite web |url= https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-d&chapter=27&clang=_en
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|website= United Nations Treaty Collection
{{legend|#31a354|High}}
|title= Status of Treaties, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
|valign="top"|
|access-date=20 November 2019
{{legend|#fee391|Medium}}
}}; {{harvnb|Salon, 25 September|2019}}.</ref> In November 2019 the Trump administration notified the UN that it would withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement in 2020.<ref>{{harvnb|The New York Times, 4 November|2019}}.</ref>
|valign="top"|
{{legend|#fe9929|Low}}
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{{legend|#d7301f|Very low}}
|}]]
Countries that are most ] have typically been responsible for a small share of global emissions. This raises questions about justice and fairness.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=Section 3|p=17}}</ref> Limiting global warming makes it much easier to achieve the UN's ], such as eradicating poverty and reducing inequalities. The connection is recognized in ] which is to "take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts".<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch5|2018|p=447}}; United Nations (2017) Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 6 July 2017, ] ()</ref> The goals on food, clean water and ecosystem protection have synergies with climate mitigation.{{sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch5|2018|p=477}}


The ] of climate change is complex. It has often been framed as a ], in which all countries benefit from mitigation done by other countries, but individual countries would lose from switching to a ] themselves. Sometimes mitigation also has localized benefits though. For instance, the benefits of a ] to public health and local environments exceed the costs in almost all regions.<ref name="Rauner 2020">{{harvnb|Rauner|Bauer|Dirnaichner|Van Dingenen|2020}}</ref> Furthermore, net importers of fossil fuels win economically from switching to clean energy, causing net exporters to face ]: fossil fuels they cannot sell.<ref>{{harvnb|Mercure|Pollitt|Viñuales|Edwards|2018}}</ref>
==== Other policy ====


=== Policy options ===
In 2019, the ] became the first national government in the world to officially ].<ref>{{Harvnb|BBC, 1 May|2019}}; {{Harvnb|Vice, 2 May|2019}}.</ref> Other countries and ]s followed.<ref>{{harvnb|The Verge, 27 December|2019}}.</ref> In November 2019 the ] declared a "climate and environmental emergency",<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 28 November|2019}}</ref> and the ] presented its ] with which they hope to make the EU carbon-neutral in 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|Forbes, 3 February|2020}}.</ref>
{{Further|Climate policy}}
A wide range of ], ]s, and laws are being used to reduce emissions. As of 2019, ] covers about 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|World Bank, June|2019|p=12|loc=Box 1}}</ref> Carbon can be priced with ]es and ].<ref>{{harvnb|Union of Concerned Scientists, 8 January|2017}}; {{harvnb|Hagmann|Ho|Loewenstein|2019}}.</ref> Direct global ] reached $319&nbsp;billion in 2017, and $5.2&nbsp;trillion when indirect costs such as air pollution are priced in.<ref>{{harvnb|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|p=1866}}</ref> Ending these can cause a 28% reduction in global carbon emissions and a 46% reduction in air pollution deaths.<ref>{{harvnb|UN Human Development Report|2020|p=10}}</ref> Money saved on fossil subsidies could be used to support the ] instead.<ref>{{harvnb|International Institute for Sustainable Development|2019|p=iv}}</ref> More direct methods to reduce greenhouse gases include vehicle efficiency standards, renewable fuel standards, and air pollution regulations on heavy industry.<ref>{{harvnb|ICCT|2019|p=iv}}; {{harvnb|Natural Resources Defense Council, 29 September|2017}}</ref> Several countries ].<ref>{{harvnb|National Conference of State Legislators, 17 April|2020}}; {{harvnb|European Parliament, February|2020}}</ref>


==== Climate justice ====
While the ozone layer and climate change are considered separate problems, the solution to the former has significantly mitigated global warming. The estimated mitigation of the ], an international agreement to stop emitting ozone-depleting gases, is estimated to have been more effective than the ], which was specifically designed to curb greenhouse gas emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|Goyal|England|Sen Gupta|Jucker|2019}}.</ref> It has been argued that the ], may have done more than any other measure, {{as of|2017|lc=y}}, to mitigate climate change as ]<ref>{{harvnb|UN Environment, 20 November|2017}}.</ref>
Policy designed through the lens of ] tries to address ] issues and social inequality. According to proponents of climate justice, the costs of climate adaptation should be paid by those most responsible for climate change, while the beneficiaries of payments should be those suffering impacts. One way this can be addressed in practice is to have wealthy nations pay poorer countries to adapt.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 16 October|2021}}</ref>


Oxfam found that in 2023 the wealthiest 10% of people were responsible for 50% of global emissions, while the bottom 50% were responsible for just 8%.<ref>{{Cite journal|title=Climate Equality: A planet for the 99% |last1=Khalfan|first1=Ashfaq|last2=Lewis|first2=Astrid Nilsson|last3=Aguilar|first3=Carlos|last4=Persson|first4=Jacqueline|last5=Lawson|first5=Max|last6=Dab|first6=Nafkote|last7=Jayoussi|first7=Safa|last8=Acharya|first8=Sunil|date=November 2023|website=Oxfam Digital Repository |publisher=Oxfam GB |doi=10.21201/2023.000001|url=https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/621551/cr-climate-equality-201123-en-summ.pdf|access-date=18 December 2023}}</ref> Production of emissions is another way to look at responsibility: under that approach, the top 21 fossil fuel companies would owe cumulative ] of $5.4&nbsp;trillion over the period 2025–2050.<ref name=OneEarth_20230519>{{cite journal |last1=Grasso |first1=Marco |last2=Heede |first2=Richard |title=Time to pay the piper: Fossil fuel companies' reparations for climate damages |journal=One Earth |date=19 May 2023 |volume=6 |issue=5 |pages=459–463 |doi=10.1016/j.oneear.2023.04.012 |bibcode=2023OEart...6..459G |bibcode-access=free |s2cid=258809532 |s2cid-access=free |doi-access=free |hdl=10281/416137 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> To achieve a ], people working in the fossil fuel sector would also need other jobs, and their communities would need investments.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 4 Jan|2017}}.</ref>
=== Scientific consensus ===
{{Main|Scientific consensus on climate change}}
]
In the scientific literature, there is an ] in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases.<ref>{{harvnb|Cook|Oreskes|Doran|Anderegg|2016}}.</ref> No scientific body of national or international standing ].<ref>{{harvnb|NRC|2008|p=2}}; {{harvnb|Oreskes|2007||p=}}; {{Harvnb|Gleick, 7 January|2017}}</ref> Scientific discussion takes place in journal articles that are peer-reviewed, which scientists subject to assessment every couple of years in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports.<ref>{{harvnb|Royal Society|2005}}.</ref> In 2013, the ] stated that "is ''extremely likely'' that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century".<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2013|loc= D.3 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change|p=17}}.</ref> Their 2018 report expressed the ] as: "human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of observed warming since the mid-20th century".{{Sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=53}}


=== International climate agreements ===
Consensus has further developed that some form of action should be taken to protect people against the impacts of climate change, and national science academies have called on world leaders to cut global emissions.<ref>Joint statement of the {{harvtxt|G8+5 Academies|2009}}; {{harvnb|Gleick, 7 January|2017}}.</ref> In November 2017, in the second ], 15,364 scientists from 184 countries stated that "the current trajectory of potentially catastrophic climate change due to rising greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and agricultural production{{snd}}particularly from farming ]s for meat consumption" is "especially troubling".<ref>{{harvnb|Ripple|Wolf|Newsome|Galetti|2017}}.</ref> In 2019, a group of more than 11,000 scientists from 153 countries named climate change an "emergency" that would lead to "untold human suffering" if no big shifts in action takes place.<ref>{{harvnb|The Independent, 5 November|2019}}.</ref> The emergency declaration emphasized that ] and ] "are among the most important drivers of increases in {{CO2}} emissions from fossil fuel combustion" and that "we need bold and drastic transformations regarding economic and population policies".<ref>{{harvnb|Ripple|Wolf|Newsome|Barnard|2019}}.</ref>
{{Further|United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change}}
]
]
Nearly all countries in the world are parties to the 1994 ] (UNFCCC).<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC, "What is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?"}}</ref> The goal of the UNFCCC is to prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC|1992|loc=Article 2}}.</ref> As stated in the convention, this requires that greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and ] can be sustained.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3 Ch1|2007|p=97}}.</ref> The UNFCCC does not itself restrict emissions but rather provides a framework for protocols that do. Global emissions have risen since the UNFCCC was signed.<ref name="EPA-2019">{{harvnb|EPA|2019}}.</ref> ] are the stage of global negotiations.<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC, "What are United Nations Climate Change Conferences?"}}</ref>


The 1997 ] extended the UNFCCC and included legally binding commitments for most developed countries to limit their emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|Kyoto Protocol|1997}}; {{harvnb|Liverman|2009|p=290}}.</ref> During the negotiations, the ] (representing ]) pushed for a mandate requiring ] to " the lead" in reducing their emissions,<ref>{{harvnb|Dessai|2001|p=4}}; {{harvnb|Grubb|2003}}.</ref> since developed countries contributed most to the ] in the atmosphere. Per-capita emissions were also still relatively low in developing countries and developing countries would need to emit more to meet their development needs.<ref>{{harvnb|Liverman|2009|p=290}}.</ref>
=== Public opinion and disputes ===
{{Further|Public opinion on climate change|Media coverage of climate change|}}
The global warming problem came to international public attention in the late 1980s.<ref>{{harvnb|Weart|2015|loc="The Public and Climate Change (since 1980)"}}.</ref> Significant regional differences exist in how concerned people are about climate change and how much they understand the issue.<ref name="Pew Research Center 2015">{{harvnb|Pew Research Center|2015}}.</ref> In 2010, just a little over half the US population viewed it as a serious concern for either themselves or their families, while 73% of people in Latin America and 74% in developed Asia felt this way.<ref>{{harvnb|Gallup, 20 April|2011}}.</ref> Similarly, in 2015 a ] of 54% of respondents considered it "a very serious problem", but Americans and Chinese (whose economies are responsible for ]) were among the least concerned.<ref name="Pew Research Center 2015"/> Worldwide in 2011, people were more likely to attribute global warming to human activities than to natural causes, except in the US where nearly half of the population attributed global warming to natural causes.<ref>{{harvnb|Gallup, 22 April|2011}}.</ref> Public reactions to global warming and concern about its effects have been increasing, with many perceiving it as the worst global threat.<ref>{{harvnb|Pew Research Center, 24 June|2013}}.</ref> In a 2019 CBS poll, 64% of the US population said that climate change is a "crisis" or a "serious problem", with 44% saying human activity was a significant contributor.<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 15 September|2019}}.</ref>


The 2009 ] has been widely portrayed as disappointing because of its low goals, and was rejected by poorer nations including the G77.<ref>{{harvnb|Müller|2010}}; {{harvnb|The New York Times, 25 May|2015}}; {{harvnb|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009}}; {{harvnb|EUobserver, 20 December|2009}}.</ref> Associated parties aimed to limit the global temperature rise to below 2&nbsp;°C.<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009}}.</ref> The Accord set the goal of sending $100&nbsp;billion per year to developing countries for mitigation and adaptation by 2020, and proposed the founding of the ].<ref>{{cite conference |date=7–18 December 2009 |title=Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change |url=http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_15/items/5257.php |location=Copenhagen |id=un document= FCCC/CP/2009/L.7 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101018074452/http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_15/items/5257.php |archive-date=18 October 2010 |access-date=24 October 2010 |url-status=live}}</ref> {{As of|2020|}}, only 83.3&nbsp;billion were delivered. Only in 2023 the target is expected to be achieved.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Bennett |first1=Paige |title=High-Income Nations Are on Track Now to Meet $100 Billion Climate Pledges, but They're Late |url=https://www.ecowatch.com/wealthy-countries-climate-change-reparations.html |access-date=10 May 2023 |agency=Ecowatch |date=2 May 2023}}</ref>
Due to confusing media coverage in the early 1990s, issues such as ozone depletion and climate change were often mixed up, affecting public understanding of these issues.<ref name="Newell2006">{{harvnb|Newell|2006|p=80}}; {{harvnb|Yale Climate Connections, 2 November|2010}}.</ref> Although there are a few ], the relationship between the two is weak.<ref>{{harvnb|Shindell|Faluvegi|Lacis|Hansen|2006}}.</ref>


In 2015 all UN countries negotiated the ], which aims to keep global warming well below 2.0&nbsp;°C and contains an aspirational goal of keeping warming under {{val|1.5|u=°C}}.{{sfn|Paris Agreement|2015}} The agreement replaced the Kyoto Protocol. Unlike Kyoto, no binding emission targets were set in the Paris Agreement. Instead, a set of procedures was made binding. Countries have to regularly set ever more ambitious goals and reevaluate these goals every five years.<ref>{{harvnb|Climate Focus|2015|p=3}}; {{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 8 October|2018}}.</ref> The Paris Agreement restated that developing countries must be financially supported.<ref>{{harvnb|Climate Focus|2015|p=5}}.</ref> {{As of|October 2021}}, 194 states and the ] have signed the treaty and 191 states and the EU have ] or acceded to the agreement.<ref>{{cite web |title=Status of Treaties, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |url=https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-d&chapter=27&clang=_en |access-date=13 October 2021 |website=United Nations Treaty Collection}}; {{harvnb|Salon, 25 September|2019}}.</ref>
==== Controversy ====
]{{See also|Fossil fuels lobby|climate change denial}}
From about 1990 onward, ] ]s had begun challenging the legitimacy of global warming as a social problem. They ], argued that ], warned that concern for global warming was some kind of ] plot to undermine American ],<ref>{{harvnb|Montlake|2019}}.</ref> and asserted that proposed solutions would do more harm than good.<ref>{{harvnb|McCright|Dunlap|2000}}.</ref> Organizations such as the ] ], as well as conservative commentators, have challenged IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls.<ref>{{Harvnb|Newsweek, 13 August|2007}}.</ref>


The 1987 ], an international agreement to phase out production of ozone-depleting gases, has had benefits for climate change mitigation.<ref>{{harvnb|Velders|Andersen|Daniel|Fahey|McFarland|2007}}; {{harvnb|Young|Harper|Huntingford|Paul|Morgenstern|Newman|Oman|Madronich|Garcia|2021}}</ref> Several ozone-depleting gases like ] are powerful greenhouse gases, so banning their production and usage may have avoided a temperature rise of 0.5&nbsp;°C–1.0&nbsp;°C,<ref>{{harvnb|WMO SAOD Executive Summary|2022|pp=20, 31}}</ref> as well as additional warming by preventing damage to vegetation from ] radiation.<ref>{{harvnb|WMO SAOD Executive Summary|2022|pp=20, 35}}; {{harvnb|Young|Harper|Huntingford|Paul|Morgenstern|Newman|Oman|Madronich|Garcia|2021}}</ref> It is estimated that the agreement has been more effective at curbing greenhouse gas emissions than the Kyoto Protocol specifically designed to do so.<ref>{{harvnb|Goyal|England|Sen Gupta|Jucker|2019}}; {{harvnb|Velders|Andersen|Daniel|Fahey|McFarland|2007}}</ref> The most recent amendment to the Montreal Protocol, the 2016 ], committed to reducing the emissions of ]s, which served as a replacement for banned ozone-depleting gases and are also potent greenhouse gases.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 21 November|2017}}</ref> Should countries comply with the amendment, a warming of 0.3&nbsp;°C–0.5&nbsp;°C is estimated to be avoided.<ref>{{harvnb|WMO SAOD Executive Summary|2022|p=15}}; {{harvnb|Velders|Daniel|Montzka|Vimont|Rigby|Krummel|Muhle|O'Doherty|Prinn,|Weiss|Young|2022}}</ref>
], substantially more pronounced in the ] than in the scientific literature,<ref>{{harvnb|Boykoff|Boykoff|2004}}; {{harvnb|Oreskes|Conway|2010}}.</ref> with disputes regarding the nature, causes, and consequences of global warming. The disputed issues include the causes of increased ], especially since the mid-20th century, whether this warming trend is unprecedented or within normal climatic variations, whether humankind has contributed significantly to it, and whether the increase is completely or partially an artifact of poor measurements. Additional disputes concern estimates of climate sensitivity, predictions of additional warming, what the consequences of global warming will be, and what to do about it.<ref>{{harvnb|Poortinga|Fisher|Böhm|Steg|2018|p=15}}.</ref> One suggestion is that the best individual actions include having fewer children<ref>{{harvnb|Science, 11 July|2017}};{{harvnb|Wynes|Nicholas|2017}}.</ref> but some disagree with encouraging people to stop having children, saying that children "embody a profound hope for the future", and that more emphasis should be placed on lifestyle choices of the world's wealthy, ], and government inaction.<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 27 February|2019}}; {{harvnb|Vox, 15 October|2018}}.</ref>] in Sydney, Australia]]


=== National responses ===
In the 20th century and early 2000s some companies, such as ], challenged IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagreed with the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls.<ref>{{Harvnb|Newsweek, 13 August|2007}}; {{Harvnb|The Guardian, 20 September|2006}}; {{harvnb|MSNBC, 12 January|2007}}; {{harvnb|ABC, 3 January|2007}}.</ref> In general, since the 2010s, ] do not dispute that climate change exists and is caused by the burning of fossil fuels.<ref>A list of oil company statements has been collected at the of the University of Wisconsin – Oshkosh. See ].<!-- NOTE: no stated author, no definite data, this one is a challenge. We will try faking it. --></ref> {{As of|2019}}, however, some are lobbying against a carbon tax and plan to increase production of oil and gas,<ref>{{harvnb|The Economist, 9 February|2019}}.</ref> but others are in favour of a carbon tax in exchange for immunity from lawsuits which seek climate change compensation.<ref>{{Harvnb|The Guardian, 2 May|2019}}.</ref>
]. This measures fossil fuel and industry emissions. ] is not included.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co-emissions-by-region |title=Annual {{CO2}} emissions by world region |website=ourworldindata.org |publisher=] |format=chart|access-date=2024-09-18}}</ref>]]
In 2019, the ] became the first national government to declare a climate emergency.<ref>{{Harvnb|BBC, 1 May|2019}}; {{Harvnb|Vice, 2 May|2019}}.</ref> Other countries and ]s followed suit.<ref>{{harvnb|The Verge, 27 December|2019}}.</ref> That same year, the ] declared a "climate and environmental emergency".<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 28 November|2019}}</ref> The ] presented its ] with the goal of making the EU carbon-neutral by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|Politico, 11 December|2019}}.</ref> In 2021, the European Commission released its "]" legislation package, which contains guidelines for the ]; all new cars on the European market must be ] from 2035.<ref>{{cite news |title=European Green Deal: Commission proposes transformation of EU economy and society to meet climate ambitions |url=https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_3541 |work=] |date=14 July 2021}}</ref>


Major countries in Asia have made similar pledges: South Korea and Japan have committed to become carbon-neutral by 2050, and China by 2060.<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 28 October|2020}}</ref> While India has strong incentives for renewables, it also plans a significant expansion of coal in the country.<ref>{{cite web |date=15 September 2021 |title=India |url=https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india/ |access-date=3 October 2021 |website=Climate Action Tracker}}</ref> Vietnam is among very few coal-dependent, fast-developing countries that pledged to phase out unabated coal power by the 2040s or as soon as possible thereafter.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Do |first1=Thang Nam |last2=Burke |first2=Paul J. |title=Phasing out coal power in a developing country context: Insights from Vietnam |journal=Energy Policy |year=2023 |volume=176 |issue=May 2023 113512 |page=113512 |doi=10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113512|bibcode=2023EnPol.17613512D |s2cid=257356936 |hdl=1885/286612 |hdl-access=free }}</ref>
==== Protest and litigation ====
{{Main|climate movement}}
Protests seeking more ambitious climate action have increased in the 2010s in the form of ],<ref>{{harvnb|Gunningham|2018}}.</ref> worldwide demonstrations,<ref>{{harvnb|The New York Times, 29 April|2017}}.</ref> and a ].<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 19 March|2019}}.</ref> Mass ] actions by ] and ] have ended in police intervention and large-scale arrests.<ref>{{harvnb|BBC, 16 April|2019}}; {{harvnb|Euronews, 22 June|2019}}; {{harvnb|Deutsche Welle, 22 June|2019}}.</ref> ] is increasingly used as a tool to strengthen climate action, with governments being the biggest target of lawsuits demanding that they become ambitious on climate action or enforce existing laws. Cases against fossil-fuel companies, from activists, ]s and ]s, generally seek compensation for loss and damage.<ref>{{harvnb|Setzer|Byrnes|2019}}.</ref>


As of 2021, based on information from 48 ], which represent 40% of the parties to the Paris Agreement, estimated total greenhouse gas emissions will be 0.5% lower compared to 2010 levels, below the 45% or 25% reduction goals to limit global warming to 1.5&nbsp;°C or 2&nbsp;°C, respectively.<ref>{{harvnb|UN NDC Synthesis Report|2021|pp=4–5}}; {{cite news |author=UNFCCC Press Office |date=26 February 2021 |title=Greater Climate Ambition Urged as Initial NDC Synthesis Report Is Published |url=https://unfccc.int/news/greater-climate-ambition-urged-as-initial-ndc-synthesis-report-is-published |access-date=21 April 2021}}</ref>
==History of the science==
] (drawing published in 1872) measured the extent to which infrared radiation was impeded by various gases filling its central tube.]]{{Main|History of climate change science}}
In the seventeenth century it was demonstrated that glass, though transparent to sunlight, obstructs ],<ref>{{harvnb | Calel | 2014}}; {{harvnb | Fleming | 2008|loc=}}.</ref> followed by the discovery in the eigtheenth century that non-luminous warm objects emit "obscure" (]) heat.<ref>{{harvnb | Barry | 1978 }}; {{harvnb|Archer|Pierrehumbert|2013|p=}}.</ref>
In a 1824 memoir summarising research into heat transfer, ] assessed sources heating the globe, and the balancing emission of infrared radiation. He proposed a simple formulation of what was later called the ]; transparent atmosphere lets through visible light, which warms the surface. The warmed surface emits infrared radiation, but the atmosphere is relatively opaque to infrared and slows the emission of energy, warming the planet.<ref>{{harvnb|Archer|Pierrehumbert|2013|pp=}}.</ref>


== Society ==
Starting in 1859,<ref>{{harvnb|Tyndall|1861}}.</ref> John Tyndall established that nitrogen and oxygen (99% of dry air) are transparent to infrared, but water vapour and traces of some molecules (significantly ] and carbon dioxide) both absorb infrared and, when warmed, emit infrared radiation. His 1861 paper proposed changing concentrations of these gases could have caused "all the mutations of climate which the researches of geologists reveal" and would explain ] changes.<ref>{{harvnb|Archer|Pierrehumbert|2013|pp=}}; {{harvnb | Fleming | 2008|loc=}}. In 1856 ] experimented using glass cylinders filled with different gases heated by sunlight, but her apparatus could not distinguish the infrared greenhouse effect. She found moist air warmed more than dry air, and {{co2}} warmed most, so she concluded higher levels of this in the past would have increased temperatures: {{harvnb|Huddleston|2019}}.</ref>
=== Denial and misinformation ===
{{Further|Climate change denial|Fossil fuels lobby}}
] from short periods to falsely assert that global temperatures are not rising. Blue trendlines show short periods that mask longer-term warming trends (red trendlines). Blue rectangle with blue dots shows the so-called ].{{sfn|Stover|2014}}]]
Public debate about climate change has been strongly affected by climate change denial and ], which originated in the United States and has since spread to other countries, particularly Canada and Australia. Climate change denial has originated from fossil fuel companies, industry groups, ] think tanks, and ] scientists.<ref>{{harvnb|Dunlap|McCright|2011|pp=144, }}; {{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}}</ref> ], the main strategy of these groups has been to manufacture doubt about climate-change related scientific data and results.<ref>{{harvnb|Oreskes|Conway|2010}}; {{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}}</ref> People who hold unwarranted doubt about climate change are called climate change "skeptics", although "contrarians" or "deniers" are more appropriate terms.<ref>{{harvnb|O'Neill|Boykoff|2010}}; {{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}}</ref>


There are different variants of climate denial: some deny that warming takes place at all, some acknowledge warming but attribute it to natural influences, and some minimize the negative impacts of climate change.<ref name="Björnberg 2017">{{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}}</ref> Manufacturing uncertainty about the science later developed into a ]: creating the belief that there is significant uncertainty about climate change within the scientific community to delay policy changes.<ref>{{harvnb|Dunlap|McCright|2015|p=308}}.</ref> Strategies to promote these ideas include criticism of scientific institutions,<ref>{{harvnb|Dunlap|McCright|2011|p=146}}.</ref> and questioning the motives of individual scientists.<ref name="Björnberg 2017"/> An ] of climate-denying ] and media has further fomented misunderstanding of climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|Harvey|Van den Berg|Ellers|Kampen|2018}}</ref>
] noted that water vapour in air continuously varied, but carbon dioxide ({{co2}}) was determined by long term geological processes. At the end of an ice age, warming from increased {{co2}} would increase the amount of water vapour, amplifying its effect in a feedback process. In 1896, he published the first ] of its kind, showing that halving of {{co2}} could have produced the drop in temperature initiating the ice age. Arrhenius calculated the temperature increase expected from doubling {{co2}} to be around {{convert|5-6|C-change}}.{{snf|Lapenis|2006}} Other scientists were initially sceptical and believed the greenhouse effect to be saturated so that adding more {{co2}} would make no difference. Experts thought climate would be self-regulating.<ref name="Weart 2008 loc=The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect">{{harvnb|Weart|2008|loc="The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect"}}; {{harvnb |Fleming | 2008|loc=}}.</ref> From 1938 ] published evidence that climate was warming and {{co2}} levels increasing,<ref>{{harvnb|Callendar|1938}}; {{harvnb|Fleming|2007}}.</ref> but his calculations met the same objections.<ref name="Weart 2008 loc=The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect" />


=== Public awareness and opinion ===
1950s military research found less saturation of the greenhouse effect at high altitudes. Earlier calculations treated the atmosphere as a single layer and used digital computers to model the different layers and found added {{co2}} would cause warming. ] found evidence {{co2}} levels had been rising, ] showed the oceans would not absorb the increase, and together they helped ] to begin a record of continued increase, the ].<ref name="Weart 2008 loc=The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect" /> Revelle, Plass and other scientists alerted media to press for government attention,<ref name="footnote 27">{{harvnb|Weart|2014a}}, . See also .</ref> the dangers of global warming came to the fore at ]'s 1988 Congressional testimony.<ref name="history.aip.org">{{harvnb|Weart|2014b}}, .</ref> Scientific research on climate change expanded, and the ], set up in 1988 to provide formal advice to the world's governments, has spurred unprecedented levels of exchange between different scientific disciplines.<ref>{{harvnb|Weart|2013|p=3567}}.</ref>
{{Further|Climate communication|Media coverage of climate change|Public opinion on climate change}}
] |volume=37 |issue=4 |pages=183–184 |doi=10.1177/0270467619886266 |s2cid=213454806}}</ref><ref name=Lynas_2021/><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Myers |first1=Krista F. |last2=Doran |first2=Peter T. |last3=Cook |first3=John |last4=Kotcher |first4=John E. |last5=Myers |first5=Teresa A. |title=Consensus revisited: quantifying scientific agreement on climate change and climate expertise among Earth scientists 10 years later |journal=] |date=20 October 2021 |volume=16 |issue=10 |page=104030 |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/ac2774 |bibcode=2021ERL....16j4030M |s2cid=239047650 |doi-access=free }}</ref> found scientific consensus to range from 98.7 to 100%.]]
Climate change came to international public attention in the late 1980s.<ref name="Weart">{{harvnb|Weart "The Public and Climate Change (since 1980)"}}</ref> Due to media coverage in the early 1990s, people often confused climate change with other environmental issues like ozone depletion.<ref name="Newell2006">{{harvnb|Newell|2006|p=80}}; {{harvnb|Yale Climate Connections, 2 November|2010}}</ref> ], the ] movie '']'' (2004) and the ] documentary '']'' (2006) focused on climate change.<ref name="Weart" />


Significant regional, gender, age and political differences exist in both public concern for, and understanding of, climate change. More highly educated people, and in some countries, women and younger people, were more likely to see climate change as a serious threat.<ref>{{harvnb|Pew|2015|p=10}}.</ref> College biology textbooks from the 2010s featured less content on climate change compared to those from the preceding decade, with decreasing emphasis on solutions.<ref name=":0">{{Cite web |last1=Preston |first1=Caroline |last2=Hechinger |date=1 October 2023 |title=In Some Textbooks, Climate Change Content Is Few and Far Between |url=https://undark.org/2023/01/10/in-some-textbooks-climate-change-content-is-few-and-far-between/ |website=undark.org/}}</ref> Partisan gaps also exist in many countries,<ref>{{harvnb|Pew|2020|}}.</ref> and countries with high ] tend to be less concerned.<ref>{{harvnb|Pew|2015|p=15}}.</ref> Views on causes of climate change vary widely between countries.<ref>{{harvnb|Yale|2021|p=7}}.</ref> Concern has increased over time,<ref>{{harvnb|Pew|2020|}}; {{harvnb|UNDP|2024|pp=22–26}}</ref> and a majority of citizens in many countries now express a high level of worry about climate change, or view it as a global emergency.<ref>{{harvnb|Yale|2021|p=9}}; {{harvnb|UNDP|2021|p=15}}.</ref> Higher levels of worry are associated with stronger public support for policies that address climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|Smith|Leiserowitz|2013|p=943}}.</ref>
== Terminology ==
Research in the 1950s suggested that temperatures were increasing, and a 1952 newspaper used the term "climate change". This phrase next appeared in a November 1957 report in '']'' which described ]'s research into the effects of increasing human-caused {{co2}} emissions on the greenhouse effect: "a large scale global warming, with radical climate changes may result". A 1971 ] report referred to the human impact as "inadvertent climate modification", identifying many possible causes.<ref>{{harvnb|Bhargava|2002|p=211}}.</ref> Both the terms ''global warming'' and ''climate change'' were used only occasionally until 1975, when ] published a scientific paper on the topic, "Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?". The phrase began to come into common use, and in 1976 ]'s statement that "a global warming up has started" was widely reported.<ref name="footnote 27"/> An influential 1979 ] study headed by ] followed Broecker in using ''global warming'' to refer to rising surface temperatures, while describing the wider effects of increased {{co2}} as ''climate change''.<ref name="Conway 2008">{{harvnb|NASA, 5 December|2008}}.</ref>


==== Climate movement ====
There were increasing heatwaves and drought problems in the summer of 1988, and NASA climate scientist ]'s testimony in the U.S. Senate sparked worldwide interest.<ref name="history.aip.org"/> He said, "Global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and the observed warming."<ref>{{harvnb|U.S. Senate, Hearings|1988|p= 44}}.</ref> Public attention increased over the summer, and ''global warming'' became the dominant popular term, commonly used both by the press and in public discourse.<ref name="Conway 2008"/> In the 2000s, the term ''climate change'' increased in popularity.<ref>{{harvnb|Joo|Kim|Do|Lineman|2015}}.</ref> The term ''climate change'' is also used to refer to past and future climate changes that persist for an extended period of time, and includes regional changes as well as global change.<ref>{{harvnb|NOAA, 17 June|2015}}; {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014|p=120}}: "Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use."</ref> The two terms are often used interchangeably.<ref name="Shaftel 2016">{{Harvnb|Shaftel|2016|p=}}: "{{thinsp}}'Climate change' and 'global warming' are often used interchangeably but have distinct meanings. .... Global warming refers to the upward temperature trend across the entire Earth since the early 20th century .... Climate change refers to a broad range of global phenomena ... include the increased temperature trends described by global warming."</ref>
{{Main|Climate movement|Climate change litigation}}
Climate protests demand that political leaders take action to prevent climate change. They can take the form of public demonstrations, ], lawsuits and other activities.<ref>{{harvnb|Gunningham|2018}}.</ref> Prominent demonstrations include the ]. In this initiative, young people across the globe have been protesting since 2018 by skipping school on Fridays, inspired by Swedish activist and then-teenager ].<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 19 March|2019}}; {{harvnb|Boulianne|Lalancette|Ilkiw|2020}}.</ref> Mass ] actions by groups like ] have protested by disrupting roads and public transport.<ref>{{harvnb|Deutsche Welle, 22 June|2019}}.</ref>


] is increasingly used as a tool to strengthen climate action from public institutions and companies. Activists also initiate lawsuits which target governments and demand that they take ambitious action or enforce existing laws on climate change.<ref>{{cite news |last=Connolly |first=Kate |date=29 April 2021 |title='Historic' German ruling says climate goals not tough enough |url=http://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/29/historic-german-ruling-says-climate-goals-not-tough-enough |access-date=1 May 2021 |work=]}}</ref> Lawsuits against fossil-fuel companies generally seek compensation for ].<ref>{{harvnb|Setzer|Byrnes|2019}}.</ref>
Various scientists, politicians and news media have adopted the terms '']'' or a ''climate emergency'' to talk about climate change, while using ''global heating'' instead of global warming.<ref>{{harvnb|Hodder|Martin|2009}}; {{harvnb||BBC Science Focus Magazine, 3 February|2020}}.</ref> The policy editor-in-chief of '']'' explained why they included this language in their editorial guidelines: "We want to ensure that we are being scientifically precise, while also communicating clearly with readers on this very important issue".<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 17 May|2019}}; {{harvnb||BBC Science Focus Magazine, 3 February|2020}}.</ref> ] chose ''climate emergency'' as the word of the year 2019 and defines the term as "a situation in which urgent action is required to reduce or halt climate change and avoid potentially irreversible environmental damage resulting from it".<ref>{{harvnb|USA Today, 21 November|2019}}.</ref>


== See also == == History ==
{{Broader|History of climate change science}}
<!-- Editors: please note that the Manual of Style advices a minimum (or no) items in this sections for featured articles -->
{{portal |Global warming|Science}}
{{Misplaced Pages books}}
* ] – proposed geological time interval for a new period where humans are having significant geological impact
* ] – minority view held by scientists in the 1970s that imminent cooling of the Earth would take place


== Notes == === Early discoveries ===
], March 1912, p. 341.</ref>]]
{{reflist|25em}}
Scientists in the 19th century such as ] began to foresee the effects of climate change.<ref name="Nord 2020 p. 51">{{cite book |last=Nord |first=D. C. |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=KmMGEAAAQBAJ&pg=PA51 |title=Nordic Perspectives on the Responsible Development of the Arctic: Pathways to Action |publisher=Springer International Publishing |year=2020 |isbn=978-3-030-52324-4 |series=Springer Polar Sciences |page=51 |access-date=11 March 2023}}</ref><ref name="Mukherjee Scanlon Aureli Langan 2020 p. 331">{{cite book |last1=Mukherjee |first1=A. |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=17vbDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA331 |title=Global Groundwater: Source, Scarcity, Sustainability, Security, and Solutions |last2=Scanlon |first2=B. R. |last3=Aureli |first3=A. |last4=Langan |first4=S. |last5=Guo |first5=H. |last6=McKenzie |first6=A. A. |publisher=Elsevier Science |year=2020 |isbn=978-0-12-818173-7 |page=331 |access-date=11 March 2023}}</ref><ref name="von Humboldt Wulf 2018 p. 10">{{cite book | last1=von Humboldt | first1=A. | last2=Wulf | first2=A. | title=Selected Writings of Alexander von Humboldt: Edited and Introduced by Andrea Wulf | publisher=Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group | series=Everyman's Library Classics Series | year=2018 | isbn=978-1-101-90807-5 | url=https://books.google.com/books?id=xal2DwAAQBAJ&pg=PR10 | access-date=11 March 2023 | page=10}}</ref><ref name="Erdkamp Manning Verboven 2021 p. 6">{{cite book |last1=Erdkamp |first1=Paul |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=ZbdMEAAAQBAJ&pg=PR6 |title=Climate Change and Ancient Societies in Europe and the Near East: Diversity in Collapse and Resilience |last2=Manning |first2=Joseph G. |author-link2=Joseph Manning (historian) |last3=Verboven |first3=Koenraad |publisher=Springer International Publishing |year=2021 |isbn=978-3-030-81103-7 |series=Palgrave Studies in Ancient Economies |page=6 |access-date=11 March 2023}}</ref> In the 1820s, ] proposed the greenhouse effect to explain why Earth's temperature was higher than the Sun's energy alone could explain. Earth's atmosphere is transparent to sunlight, so sunlight reaches the surface where it is converted to heat. However, the atmosphere is not transparent to heat radiating from the surface, and captures some of that heat, which in turn warms the planet.<ref>{{harvnb|Archer|Pierrehumbert|2013|pp=}}</ref>


In 1856 ] demonstrated that the warming effect of the Sun is greater for air with water vapour than for dry air, and that the effect is even greater with carbon dioxide ({{co2}}). She concluded that "An atmosphere of that gas would give to our earth a high temperature..."<ref>{{cite journal |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=6xhFAQAAMAAJ&pg=PA382 |last=Foote |first=Eunice |title=Circumstances affecting the Heat of the Sun's Rays |journal=The American Journal of Science and Arts |date=November 1856 |volume=22 |pages=382–383 |access-date=31 January 2016 |via=]}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Huddleston|2019}}</ref>
== Sources ==


] measured how much various gases in a tube absorb and emit infrared radiation—which humans experience as heat.]]
=== IPCC reports ===
Starting in 1859,<ref>{{harvnb|Tyndall|1861}}.</ref> ] established that nitrogen and oxygen—together totalling 99% of dry air—are transparent to radiated heat. However, water vapour and gases such as methane and carbon dioxide absorb radiated heat and re-radiate that heat into the atmosphere. Tyndall proposed that changes in the concentrations of these gases may have caused climatic changes in the past, including ]s.<ref>{{harvnb|Archer|Pierrehumbert|2013|pp=}}; {{harvnb|Fleming|2008|loc=}}</ref>
{{refbegin}}


] noted that water vapour in air continuously varied, but the {{co2}} concentration in air was influenced by long-term geological processes. Warming from increased {{co2}} levels would increase the amount of water vapour, amplifying warming in a positive feedback loop. In 1896, he published the first ] of its kind, projecting that halving {{co2}} levels could have produced a drop in temperature initiating an ice age. Arrhenius calculated the temperature increase expected from doubling {{co2}} to be around 5–6&nbsp;°C.{{sfn|Lapenis|1998}} Other scientists were initially sceptical and believed that the greenhouse effect was saturated so that adding more {{co2}} would make no difference, and that the climate would be self-regulating.<ref name="Weart The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect">{{harvnb|Weart "The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect"}}; {{harvnb|Fleming|2008|loc=}}</ref> Beginning in 1938, ] published evidence that climate was warming and {{co2}} levels were rising,<ref>{{harvnb|Callendar|1938}}; {{harvnb|Fleming|2007}}.</ref> but his calculations met the same objections.<ref name="Weart The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect" />
<!-- ========= TAR ================== -->

'''TAR Working Group II Report'''
=== Development of a scientific consensus ===
* {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC TAR WG2|2001}}
{{see also|Scientific consensus on climate change}}
|author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC
] |volume=11 |issue=4 |page=048002 |bibcode= 2016ERL....11d8002C |doi= 10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002 |doi-access=free|hdl=1983/34949783-dac1-4ce7-ad95-5dc0798930a6 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> A 2019 study found scientific consensus to be at 100%,<ref name="Powell2019" /> and a 2021 study concluded that consensus exceeded 99%.<ref name="Lynas2021" /> Another 2021 study found that 98.7% of climate experts indicated that the Earth is getting warmer mostly because of human activity.<ref name="Myers2021">{{cite journal |last1=Myers |first1=Krista F. |last2= Doran |first2=Peter T. |last3=Cook |first3=John |last4=Kotcher |first4=John E. |last5=Myers |first5=Teresa A. |title=Consensus revisited: quantifying scientific agreement on climate change and climate expertise among Earth scientists 10 years later |journal= ] |date=20 October 2021 |volume=16 |issue=10 |page=104030 |doi= 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2774 |bibcode= 2021ERL....16j4030M |s2cid= 239047650 |doi-access=free}}</ref>]]
|year= 2001
In the 1950s, ] created a detailed computer model that included different atmospheric layers and the infrared spectrum. This model predicted that increasing {{co2}} levels would cause warming. Around the same time, ] found evidence that {{co2}} levels had been rising, and ] showed that the oceans would not absorb the increase. The two scientists subsequently helped ] to begin a record of continued increase, which has been termed the "]".<ref name="Weart The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect" /> Scientists alerted the public,<ref>{{harvnb|Weart "Suspicions of a Human-Caused Greenhouse (1956–1969)"}}</ref> and the dangers were highlighted at James Hansen's 1988 Congressional testimony.<ref name="history.aip.org2"/> The ] (IPCC), set up in 1988 to provide formal advice to the world's governments, spurred ].<ref>{{harvnb|Weart|2013|p=3567}}.</ref> As part of the ], scientists assess the scientific discussion that takes place in ] ] articles.<ref>{{harvnb|Royal Society|2005}}.</ref>
|title= Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

|series= Contribution of Working Group II to the ] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
There is a near-complete scientific consensus that the climate is warming and that this is caused by human activities. As of 2019, agreement in recent literature reached over 99%.<ref name="Powell2019">{{cite journal |last1=Powell |first1=James |date=20 November 2019 |title=Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming |url=https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0270467619886266?journalCode=bsta |journal=] |volume=37 |issue=4 |pages=183–184 |doi=10.1177/0270467619886266 |access-date=15 November 2020 |s2cid=213454806}}</ref><ref name="Lynas2021">{{Cite journal |last1=Lynas |first1=Mark |last2=Houlton |first2=Benjamin Z |last3=Perry |first3=Simon |year=2021 |title=Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature |journal=] |volume=16 |issue=11 |pages=114005 |bibcode=2021ERL....16k4005L |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966 |issn=1748-9326 |s2cid=239032360|doi-access=free }}</ref> No scientific body of national or international standing ].<ref>{{harvnb|National Academies|2008|p=2}}; {{harvnb|Oreskes|2007|p=}}; {{Harvnb|Gleick, 7 January|2017}}</ref> Consensus has further developed that some form of action should be taken to protect people against the impacts of climate change. National science academies have called on world leaders to cut global emissions.<ref>Joint statement of the {{harvtxt|G8+5 Academies|2009}}; {{harvnb|Gleick, 7 January|2017}}.</ref> The 2021 IPCC Assessment Report stated that it is "unequivocal" that climate change is caused by humans.<ref name="Lynas2021"/>
|display-editors= 4

|editor-first1= J.J. |editor-last1= McCarthy
== See also ==
|editor-first2= O.F. |editor-last2= Canziani
<!-- Please note that the Manual of Style advices a minimum (or no) items in this sections for featured articles. -->
|editor-first3= N.A. |editor-last3= Leary
* {{portal-inline|Climate change}}
|editor-first4= D.J. |editor-last4= Dokken
* ] – proposed geological time interval in which humans are having significant geological impact
|editor-first5= K.S. |editor-last5= white
* ]
|isbn= 0-521-80768-9
* ]
|publisher= Cambridge University Press
{{clear right}}
|location= Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

}} pb: {{ISBNT|0 521-01500-6}}
== References ==
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC TAR WG2 Ch18|2001}}
{{reflist|22em}}
|chapter= Chapter 18: Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development and Equity
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/pdf/wg2TARchap18.pdf
|year= 2001
|display-authors= 4
|first1= B. |last1= Smit
|first2= O. |last2= Pilifosova
|first3= I. |last3= Burton
|first4= B. |last4= Challenger
|first5= S. |last5= Huq
|first6= R.J.T. |last6= Klein
|first7= G. |last7= Yohe
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC TAR WG2|2001}}
|pages= 877–912
}}


=== Sources ===
''' TAR Working Group III Report'''
{{Free-content attribution
* {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC TAR WG3|2001}}
| title = The status of women in agrifood systems – Overview
|author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC
| author = FAO
|year= 2001
| publisher = FAO
|title= Climate Change 2001: Mitigation
| page numbers =
|series= Contribution of Working Group III to the ] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
| source =
|editor-first1= B. |editor-last1= Metz
| documentURL = https://doi.org/10.4060/cc5060en
|editor-first2= O. |editor-last2= Davidson
| licence statement URL = https://commons.wikimedia.org/File:The_status_of_women_in_agrifood_systems_-_Overview.pdf
|editor-first3= R. |editor-last3= Swart
| license = CC BY-SA 3.0
|editor-first4= J. |editor-last4= Pan
|isbn = 0-521-80769-7
|publisher= Cambridge University Press
|location= Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
|url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg3/pdf/WGIII_TAR_full_report.pdf
}} pb: {{ISBNT|0-521-01502-2}}
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC TAR WG3 Summary for Policymakers|2001}}
|chapter= Summary for Policymakers
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg3/pdf/WG3_SPM.pdf
|year= 2001
|author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC TAR WG3|2001}}
|pages= 1–13
}} }}


==== IPCC reports ====
<!-- ========= AR4 ================== -->
{{refbegin}}
''' AR4 Working Group I Report'''

'''Fourth Assessment Report'''
<!-- Short-cite {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}} links to this citation. --> <!-- Short-cite {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}} links to this citation. -->
* {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}} * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}
|author = IPCC |author-link = IPCC |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year = 2007 |year =2007
|title = Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis |title=Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
|series = Contribution of Working Group I to the ] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |series=Contribution of Working Group I to the ] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|display-editors= 4 |display-editors=4
|editor-first1= S. |editor-last1= Solomon |editor-first1=S. |editor-last1=Solomon
|editor-first2= D. |editor-last2= Qin |editor-first2=D. |editor-last2=Qin
|editor-first3= M. |editor-last3= Manning |editor-first3=M. |editor-last3=Manning
|editor-first4= Z. |editor-last4= Chen |editor-first4=Z. |editor-last4=Chen
|editor-first5= M. |editor-last5= Marquis |editor-first5=M. |editor-last5=Marquis
|editor-first6= K.B. |editor-last6= Averyt |editor-first6=K. B. |editor-last6=Averyt
|editor-first7= M. |editor-last7= Tignor |editor-first7=M. |editor-last7=Tignor
|editor-first8= H.L. |editor-last8= Miller |editor-first8=H. L. |editor-last8=Miller
|publisher = Cambridge University Press |publisher=]
|url = http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html |url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html
|isbn = 978-0-521-88009-1 |isbn=978-0-521-88009-1
}}
}} (pb: {{ISBNT|978-0-521-70596-7}}).
<!-- # --> <!-- # -->
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch1|2007}} ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch1|2007}}
|chapter= Chapter 1: Historical Overview of Climate Change Science |chapter=Chapter 1: Historical Overview of Climate Change Science
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter1.pdf |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter1.pdf
|year= 2007 |year=2007
|display-authors= 4 |display-authors=4
|first1= H. |last1= Le Treut |first1=H. |last1=Le Treut
|first2= R. |last2= Somerville |first2=R. |last2=Somerville
|first3= U. |last3= Cubasch |first3=U. |last3=Cubasch
|first4= Y. |last4= Ding |first4=Y. |last4=Ding
|first5= C. |last5= Mauritzen |first5=C. |last5=Mauritzen
|first6= A. |last6= Mokssit |first6=A. |last6=Mokssit
|first7= T. |last7= Peterson |first7=T. |last7=Peterson
|first8= M. |last8= Prather |first8=M. |last8=Prather
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}

|pages=93–127
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}
|pages= 93–127
}} }}
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch8|2007}} ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch8|2007}}
|chapter= Chapter 8: Climate Models and their Evaluation |chapter=Chapter 8: Climate Models and their Evaluation
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter8.pdf |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter8.pdf
|year= 2007 |year=2007
|display-authors= 4 |display-authors=4
|first1= D.A. |last1= Randall |first1=D. A. |last1=Randall
|first2= R.A. |last2= Wood |first2=R. A. |last2=Wood
|first3= S. |last3= Bony |first3=S. |last3=Bony
|first4= R. |last4= Colman |first4=R. |last4=Colman
|first5= T. |last5= Fichefet |first5=T. |last5=Fichefet
|first6= J. |last6= Fyfe |first6=J. |last6=Fyfe
|first7= V. |last7= Kattsov |first7=V. |last7=Kattsov
|first8= A. |last8= Pitman |first8=A. |last8=Pitman
|first9= J. |last9= Shukla |first9=J. |last9=Shukla
|first10= J. |last10= Srinivasan |first10=J. |last10=Srinivasan
|first11= R.J. |last11= Stouffer |first11=R. J. |last11=Stouffer
|first12= A. |last12= Sumi |first12=A. |last12=Sumi
|first13= K.E. |last13= Taylor |first13=K. E. |last13=Taylor
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}

|pages=589–662
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}
|pages= 589–662
}} }}
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch9|2007}} ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch9|2007}}
|chapter= Chapter 9: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change |chapter=Chapter 9: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter9.pdf |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter9.pdf
|year= 2007 |year=2007
|display-authors= 4 |display-authors=4
|first1= G.C. |last1= Hegerl |first1=G. C. |last1=Hegerl
|first2= F.W. |last2= Zwiers |first2=F. W. |last2=Zwiers
|first3= P. |last3= Braconnot |authorlink3=Pascale Braconnot |first3=P. |last3=Braconnot |author-link3=Pascale Braconnot
|first4= N.P. |last4= Gillett |first4=N. P. |last4=Gillett
|first5= Y. |last5= Luo |first5=Y. |last5=Luo
|first6= J.A. |last6= Marengo Orsini |first6=J. A. |last6=Marengo Orsini
|first7= N. |last7= Nicholls |first7=N. |last7=Nicholls
|first8= J.E. |last8= Penner |first8=J. E. |last8=Penner
|first9= P.A. |last9= Stott |first9=P. A. |last9=Stott
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}

|pages=663–745
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}
|pages= 663–745
}} }}


'''AR4 Working Group II Report'''
<!-- Short-cite {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}} links to this citation. --> <!-- Short-cite {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}} links to this citation. -->
* {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}} * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}}
|author = IPCC |author-link = IPCC |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year = 2007 |year =2007
|title = Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability |title=Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
|series = Contribution of Working Group II to the ] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |series=Contribution of Working Group II to the ] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|display-editors= 4 |display-editors=4
|editor-first1= M.L. |editor-last1= Parry |editor-first1=M. L. |editor-last1=Parry
|editor-first2= O.F. |editor-last2= Canziani |editor-first2=O. F. |editor-last2=Canziani
|editor-first3= J.P. |editor-last3= Palutikof |editor-first3=J. P. |editor-last3=Palutikof
|editor-first4= P.J. |editor-last4= van der Linden |editor-first4=P. J. |editor-last4=van der Linden
|editor-first5= C.E. |editor-last5= Hanson |editor-first5=C. E. |editor-last5=Hanson
|publisher = Cambridge University Press |publisher=]
|url = http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html |url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html
|isbn = 978-0-521-88010-7 |isbn=978-0-521-88010-7
}} (pb: {{ISBNT|978-0-521-70597-4}}).
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG2 Summary for Policymakers|2007}}
|chapter= Summary for Policymakers
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-spm.pdf
|year= 2007
|author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}}
|pages= 7–22
}}
**{{Cite book | ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG2 Technical Summary|2007}}
|chapter= Technical Summary
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-ts.pdf
|first1= M.L. |last1= Parry
|first2= O.F. |last2= Canziani
|first3= J.P. |last3= Palutikof
|author4= Co-authors
|year= 2007
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2 |2007}}
|pages= 23–78
}} }}
<!-- ## --> <!-- ## -->
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch1|2007}} ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch19|2007}}
|chapter= Chapter 1: Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems |chapter=Chapter 19: Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter1.pdf |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter19.pdf
|year= 2007 |year=2007
|display-authors= 4 |display-authors=4
|first1= C. |last1= Rosenzweig |first1=S. H. |last1=Schneider
|first2= G. |last2= Casassa |first2=S. |last2=Semenov
|first3= D.J. |last3= Karoly |first3=A. |last3=Patwardhan
|first4= A. |last4= Imeson |first4=I. |last4=Burton
|first5= C. |last5= Liu |first5=C. H. D. |last5=Magadza
|first6= A. |last6= Menzel |first6=M. |last6=Oppenheimer
|first7= S. |last7= Rawlins |first7=A. B. |last7=Pittock
|first8= T.L. |last8= Root |first8=A. |last8=Rahman
|first9= B. |last9= Seguin |first9=J. B. |last9=Smith
|first10= P. |last10= Tryjanowski |first10=A. |last10=Suarez
|first11=F. |last11=Yamin
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}}
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}}
|pages= 79–131
|pages=779–810
}}
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch4|2007}}
|chapter= Chapter 4: Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter4.pdf
|year= 2007
|display-authors= 4
|first1= A. |last1= Fischlin
|first2= G.F. |last2= Midgley
|first3= J.T. |last3= Price
|first4= R. |last4= Leemans
|first5= B. |last5= Gopal
|first6= C. |last6= Turley
|first7= M.D.A. |last7= Rounsevell
|first8= O.P. |last8= Dube
|first9= J. |last9= Tarazona
|first10= A.A. |last10= Velichko
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}}
|pages= 211–272
}}
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch16|2007}}
|chapter= Chapter 16: Small islands
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter16.pdf
|year= 2007
|display-authors= 4
|first1= N. |last1= Mimura
|first2= L. |last2= Nurse
|first3= R.F. |last3= McLean
|first4= J. |last4= Agard
|first5= L. |last5= Briguglio
|first6= P. |last6= Lefale
|first7= R. |last7= Payet
|first8= G. |last8= Sem
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}}
|pages= 687–716
}}
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch19|2007}}
|chapter= Chapter 19: Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter19.pdf
|year= 2007
|display-authors= 4
|first1= S.H. |last1= Schneider
|first2= S. |last2= Semenov
|first3= A. |last3= Patwardhan
|first4= I. |last4= Burton
|first5= C.H.D. |last5= Magadza
|first6= M. |last6= Oppenheimer
|first7= A.B. |last7= Pittock
|first8= A. |last8= Rahman
|first9= J.B. |last9= Smith
|first10= A. |last10= Suarez
|first11= F. |last11= Yamin
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}}
|pages= 779–810
}} }}


'''AR4 Working Group III Report'''
<!-- Short-cite {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}} links to this citation. --> <!-- Short-cite {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}} links to this citation. -->
* {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}} * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}}
|author = IPCC |author-link = IPCC |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year = 2007 |year =2007
|title = Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change |title=Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change
|series = Contribution of Working Group III to the ] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |series=Contribution of Working Group III to the ] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|display-editors= 4 |display-editors=4
|editor-first1= B. |editor-last1= Metz |editor-first1=B. |editor-last1=Metz
|editor-first2= O.R. |editor-last2= Davidson |editor-first2=O. R. |editor-last2=Davidson
|editor-first3= P.R. |editor-last3= Bosch |editor-first3=P. R. |editor-last3=Bosch
|editor-first4= R. |editor-last4= Dave |editor-first4=R. |editor-last4=Dave
|editor-first5= L.A. |editor-last5= Meyer |editor-first5=L. A. |editor-last5=Meyer
|publisher = Cambridge University Press |publisher=]
|url = http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/contents.html |url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/contents.html
|isbn = 978-0-521-88011-4 |isbn=978-0-521-88011-4
}} (pb: {{ISBNT|978-0-521-70598-1}}).
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG3 Ch1|2007}}
|chapter= Chapter 1: Introduction
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-chapter1.pdf
|year= 2007
|display-authors= 4
|first1= H.-H.|last1= Rogner
|first2= D. |last2= Zhou
|first3= R. |last3= Bradley
|first4= P. |last4= Crabbé
|first5= O. |last5= Edenhofer
|first6= B. |last6= Hare
|first7= L. |last7= Kuijpers
|first8= M. |last8= Yamaguchi
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}}
|pages= 95–116
}} }}
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG3 Ch3|2007}} ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG3 Ch1|2007}}
|chapter= Chapter 3: Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context |chapter=Chapter 1: Introduction
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-chapter3.pdf |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-chapter1.pdf
|year= 2007 |year=2007
|display-authors= 4 |display-authors=4
|first1= B.S. |last1= Fisher |first1=H.-H.|last1=Rogner
|first2= N. |last2= Nakicenovic |first2=D. |last2=Zhou
|first3= K. |last3= Alfsen |first3=R. |last3=Bradley
|first4= J. |last4= Corfee Morlot |first4=P. |last4=Crabbé
|first5= F. |last5= de la Chesnaye |first5=O. |last5=Edenhofer
|first6= J.-Ch.|last6= Hourcade |first6=B. |last6=Hare
|first7= K. |last7= Jiang |first7=L. |last7=Kuijpers
|first8= M. |last8= Kainuma |first8=M. |last8=Yamaguchi
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}}
|first9= E. |last9= La Rovere
|pages=95–116
|first10= A. |last10= Matysek
|first11= A. |last11= Rana
|first12= K. |last12= Riahi
|first13= R. |last13= Richels
|first14= S. |last14= Rose
|first15= D. |last15= van Vuuren
|first16= R. |last16= Warren
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}}
|pages= 169–250
}} }}
''' AR4 Synthesis Report'''


<!-- =========AR5================== -->
<!-- Short-cite {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 SYR|2007}} links to this citation. -->
'''Fifth Assessment report'''
* {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR4 SYR|2007}}
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}<!-- ipcc:20200215 -->
|author = IPCC |author-link = IPCC
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year = 2007
|year=2013
|title = Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report
|title=Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
|series = Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the ] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|series=Contribution of Working Group I to the ] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|editor1= Core Writing Team
|display-editors=4
|editor-first2= R.K. |editor-last2= Pachuri
|editor1-first=T. F. |editor1-last=Stocker
|editor-first3= A. |editor-last3= Reisinger
|editor2-first=D. |editor2-last=Qin
|publisher = IPCC
|editor3-first=G.-K. |editor3-last=Plattner
|url= http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/contents.html
|editor4-first=M. |editor4-last=Tignor
|isbn = 978-92-9169-122-7
|editor5-first=S. K. |editor5-last=Allen
|editor6-first=J. |editor6-last=Boschung
|editor7-first=A. |editor7-last=Nauels
|editor8-first=Y. |editor8-last=Xia
|editor9-first=V. |editor9-last=Bex
|editor10-first=P. M. |editor10-last=Midgley
|publisher=]
|place=Cambridge, UK & New York
|isbn=978-1-107-05799-9 <!-- ISBN in printed source is incorrect. -->
|url=http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_ALL_FINAL.pdf <!-- Same file, new url per IPCC. -->
}}.
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2013}}
|chapter=Summary for Policymakers
|chapter-url=https://ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf
|year=2013
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
}} }}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch2|2013}}

|chapter=Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
<!-- ========= AR5 ================== -->
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2017/09/WG1AR5_Chapter02_FINAL.pdf
'''AR5 Working Group I Report'''
|year=2013

|display-authors=4
*{{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}<!-- ipcc:20200215 -->
|first1=D. L. |last1=Hartmann
|author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC
|first2=A. M. G. |last2=Klein Tank
|year= 2013
|first3=M. |last3=Rusticucci
|title= Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
|first4=L. V. |last4=Alexander
|series= Contribution of Working Group I to the ] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|first5=S. |last5=Brönnimann
|display-editors= 4
|first6=Y. |last6=Charabi
|editor1-first= T. F. |editor1-last= Stocker
|first7=F. J. |last7=Dentener
|editor2-first= D. |editor2-last= Qin
|first8=E. J. |last8=Dlugokencky
|editor3-first= G.-K. |editor3-last= Plattner
|first9=D. R. |last9=Easterling
|editor4-first= M. |editor4-last= Tignor
|first10=A. |last10=Kaplan
|editor5-first= S. K. |editor5-last= Allen
|first11=B. J. |last11=Soden
|editor6-first= J. |editor6-last= Boschung
|first12=P. W. |last12=Thorne
|editor7-first= A. |editor7-last= Nauels
|first13=M. |last13=Wild
|editor8-first= Y. |editor8-last= Xia
|first14=P. M. |last14=Zhai
|editor9-first= V. |editor9-last= Bex
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
|editor10-first= P. M. |editor10-last= Midgley
|pages=159–254
|publisher= Cambridge University Press
|place= Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
|isbn= 978-1-107-05799-9 <!-- ISBN in printed source is incorrect. -->
|url= http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_ALL_FINAL.pdf <!-- Same file, new url per IPCC. -->
}} (pb: {{ISBNT|978-1-107-66182-0}}). https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2013}}
|chapter= Summary for Policymakers
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf
|year= 2013
|author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
}} }}
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Technical Summary|2013}} ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch3|2013}}
|chapter=Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean
|year= 2013
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter03_FINAL.pdf
|chapter= Technical Summary
|year=2013
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_TS_FINAL.pdf
|display-authors= 4 |display-authors=4
|first1= T. F. |last1= Stocker |first1=M. |last1=Rhein
|first2= D. |last2= Qin |first2=S. R. |last2=Rintoul
|first3= G.-K. |last3= Plattner |first3=S. |last3=Aoki
|first4= L. V. |last4= Alexander |first4=E. |last4=Campos
|first5= S. K. |last5= Allen |first5=D. |last5=Chambers
|first6= N. L. |last6= Bindoff |first6=R. A. |last6=Feely
|first7= F.-M. |last7= Bréon |first7=S. |last7=Gulev
|first8= J. A. |last8= Church |first8=G. C. |last8=Johnson
|first9= U. |last9= Cubasch |first9=S. A. |last9=Josey
|first10= S. |last10= Emori |first10=A. |last10=Kostianoy
|first11= P. |last11= Forster |first11=C. |last11=Mauritzen
|first12= P. |last12= Friedlingstein |first12=D. |last12=Roemmich
|first13= N. |last13= Gillett |first13=L. D. |last13=Talley
|first14= J. M. |last14= Gregory |first14=F. |last14=Wang
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
|first15= D. L. |last15= Hartmann
|pages=255–315
|first16= E. |last16= Jansen
|first17= B. |last17= Kirtman
|first18= R. |last18= Knutti
|first19= K. |last19= Krishna Kumar
|first20= P. |last20= Lemke
|first21= J. |last21= Marotzke
|first22= V. |last22= Masson-Delmotte
|first23= G. A. |last23= Meehl
|first24= I. I. |last24= Mokhov
|first25= S. |last25= Piao
|first26= V. |last26= Ramaswamy
|first27= D. |last27= Randall
|first28= M. |last28= Rhein
|first29= M. |last29= Rojas
|first30= C. |last30= Sabine
|first31= D. |last31= Shindell
|first32= L. D. |last32= Talley
|first33= D. G. |last33= Vaughan
|first34= S.-P. |last34= Xie
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
|pages= 33–115
}} }}
** {{Cite book | ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch2|2013}} ** {{cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch5|2013}}
|chapter= Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface |chapter=Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter02_FINAL.pdf |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter05_FINAL.pdf
|year= 2013 |year=2013
|display-authors= 4 |display-authors=4
|first1= D. L. |last1= Hartmann |first1=V. |last1=Masson-Delmotte
|first2= A. M. G. |last2= Klein Tank |first2=M. |last2=Schulz
|first3= M. |last3= Rusticucci |first3=A. |last3=Abe-Ouchi
|first4= L. V. |last4= Alexander |first4=J. |last4=Beer
|first5= S. |last5= Brönnimann |first5=A. |last5=Ganopolski
|first6= Y. |last6= Charabi |first6=J. F. |last6=González Rouco
|first7= F. J. |last7= Dentener |first7=E. |last7=Jansen
|first8= E. J. |last8= Dlugokencky |first8=K. |last8=Lambeck
|first9= D. R. |last9= Easterling |first9=J. |last9=Luterbacher
|first10= A. |last10= Kaplan |first10=T. |last10=Naish
|first11= B. J. |last11= Soden |first11=T. |last11=Osborn
|first12= P. W. |last12= Thorne |first12=B. |last12=Otto-Bliesner
|first13= M. |last13= Wild |first13=T. |last13=Quinn
|first14= P. M. |last14= Zhai |first14=R. |last14=Ramesh
|first15=M. |last15=Rojas
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
|first16=X. |last16=Shao
|pages= 159–254
|first17=A. |last17=Timmermann
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
|pages=383–464
}} }}
** {{Cite book | ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch3|2013}} ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch10|2013}}
|chapter= Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean |chapter=Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter03_FINAL.pdf |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter10_FINAL.pdf
|year= 2013 |year=2013
|display-authors= 4 |display-authors=4
|first1= M. |last1= Rhein |first1=N. L. |last1=Bindoff
|first2= S. R. |last2= Rintoul |first2=P. A. |last2=Stott
|first3= S. |last3= Aoki |first3=K. M. |last3=AchutaRao
|first4= E. |last4= Campos |first4=M. R. |last4=Allen
|first5= D. |last5= Chambers |first5=N. |last5=Gillett
|first6= R. A. |last6= Feely |first6=D. |last6=Gutzler
|first7= S. |last7= Gulev |first7=K. |last7=Hansingo
|first8= G. C. |last8= Johnson |first8=G. |last8=Hegerl
|first9= S. A. |last9= Josey |first9=Y. |last9=Hu
|first10= A. |last10= Kostianoy |first10=S. |last10=Jain
|first11= C. |last11= Mauritzen |first11=I. I. |last11=Mokhov
|first12= D. |last12= Roemmich |first12=J. |last12=Overland
|first13= L. D. |last13= Talley |first13=J. |last13=Perlwitz
|first14= F. |last14= Wang |first14=R. |last14=Sebbari
|first15=X. |last15=Zhang
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
|pages= 255–315
|pages=867–952
}} }}
** {{Cite book | ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch5|2013}} ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013}}
|chapter= Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives |chapter=Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter05_FINAL.pdf |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf
|year= 2013 |year=2013
|display-authors= 4 |display-authors=4
|first1= V. |last1= Masson-Delmotte |first1=M. |last1=Collins
|first2= M. |last2= Schulz |first2=R. |last2=Knutti
|first3= A. |last3= Abe-Ouchi |first3=J. M. |last3=Arblaster
|first4= J. |last4= Beer |first4=J.-L. |last4=Dufresne
|first5= A. |last5= Ganopolski |first5=T. |last5=Fichefet
|first6= J. F. |last6= González Rouco |first6=P. |last6=Friedlingstein
|first7= E. |last7= Jansen |first7=X. |last7=Gao
|first8= K. |last8= Lambeck |first8=W. J. |last8=Gutowski
|first9= J. |last9= Luterbacher |first9=T. |last9=Johns
|first10= T. |last10= Naish |first10=G. |last10=Krinner
|first11= T. |last11= Osborn |first11=M. |last11=Shongwe
|first12= B. |last12= Otto-Bliesner |first12=C. |last12=Tebaldi
|first13= T. |last13= Quinn |first13=A. J. |last13=Weaver
|first14= R. |last14= Ramesh |first14=M. |last14=Wehner
|pages=1029–1136
|first15= M. |last15= Rojas
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
|first16= X. |last16= Shao
|first17= A. |last17= Timmermann
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
|pages= 383–464
}}
** {{Cite book | ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch10|2013}}
|chapter= Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter10_FINAL.pdf
|year= 2013
|display-authors= 4
|first1= N. L. |last1= Bindoff
|first2= P. A. |last2= Stott
|first3= K. M. |last3= AchutaRao
|first4= M. R. |last4= Allen
|first5= N. |last5= Gillett
|first6= D. |last6= Gutzler
|first7= K. |last7= Hansingo
|first8= G. |last8= Hegerl
|first9= Y. |last9= Hu
|first10= S. |last10= Jain
|first11= I. I. |last11= Mokhov
|first12= J. |last12= Overland
|first13= J. |last13= Perlwitz
|first14= R. |last14= Sebbari
|first15= X. |last15= Zhang
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
|pages= 867–952
}}
** {{Cite book | ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch11|2013}}
|chapter= Chapter 11: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter11_FINAL.pdf
|year= 2013
|display-authors= 4
|first1= B. |last1= Kirtman
|first2= S. |last2= Power
|first3= J.A. |last3= Adedoyin
|first4= G.J. |last4= Boer
|first5= R. |last5= Bojariu
|first6= I. |last6= Camilloni
|first7= F.J. |last7= Doblas-Reyes
|first8= A.M. |last8= Fiore
|first9= M. |last9= Kimoto
|first10= G.A. |last10= Meehl
|first11= M. |last11= Prather
|first12= A. |last12= Sarr
|first13= C. |last13= Schär
|first14= R. |last14= Sutton
|first15= G.J. |last15= van Oldenborgh
|first16= G. |last16= Vecchi
|first17= H.J. |last17= Wang
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
|pages= 953–1028
}}
** {{Cite book | ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013}}
|chapter= Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf
|year= 2013
|display-authors= 4
|first1= M. |last1= Collins
|first2= R. |last2= Knutti
|first3= J. M. |last3= Arblaster
|first4= J.-L. |last4= Dufresne
|first5= T. |last5= Fichefet
|first6= P. |last6= Friedlingstein
|first7= X. |last7= Gao
|first8= W. J. |last8= Gutowski
|first9= T. |last9= Johns
|first10= G. |last10= Krinner
|first11= M. |last11= Shongwe
|first12= C. |last12= Tebaldi
|first13= A. J. |last13= Weaver
|first14= M. |last14= Wehner
|pages= 1029–1136
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
}} }}


<!-- ------------------------------ --> <!----------------AR5 Working Group II Report -->
'''AR5 Working Group II Report'''
{{anchor|{{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2|2014}}}} <!-- For the entire AR5 WG2 report --> {{anchor|{{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2|2014}}}} <!-- For the entire AR5 WG2 report -->
* {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}} * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
|author = IPCC |author-link = IPCC |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year= 2014 |year=2014
|title= Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects |title=Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects
|series= Contribution of Working Group II to the ] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |series=Contribution of Working Group II to the ] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|display-editors= 3 |display-editors=4
|editor-first1= C.B. |editor-last1= Field |editor-first1=C. B. |editor-last1=Field
|editor-first2= V.R. |editor-last2= Barros |editor-first2=V. R. |editor-last2=Barros
|editor-first3= D.J. |editor-last3= Dokken |editor-first3=D. J. |editor-last3=Dokken
|editor-first4= K.J. |editor-last4= Mach |editor-first4=K. J. |editor-last4=Mach
|editor-first5= M.D. |editor-last5= Mastrandrea |editor-first5=M. D. |editor-last5=Mastrandrea
|editor-first6= T.E. |editor-last6= Bilir |editor-first6=T. E. |editor-last6=Bilir
|editor-first7= M. |editor-last7= Chatterjee |editor-first7=M. |editor-last7=Chatterjee
|editor-first8= K.L. |editor-last8= Ebi |editor-first8=K. L. |editor-last8=Ebi
|editor-first9= Y.O. |editor-last9= Estrada |editor-first9=Y. O. |editor-last9=Estrada
|editor-first10= R.C. |editor-last10= Genova |editor-first10=R. C. |editor-last10=Genova
|editor-first11= B. |editor-last11= Girma |editor-first11=B. |editor-last11=Girma
|editor-first12= E.S. |editor-last12= Kissel |editor-first12=E. S. |editor-last12=Kissel
|editor-first13= A.N. |editor-last13= Levy |editor-first13=A. N. |editor-last13=Levy
|editor-first14= S. |editor-last14= MacCracken |editor-first14=S. |editor-last14=MacCracken
|editor-first15= P.R. |editor-last15= Mastrandrea |editor-first15=P. R. |editor-last15=Mastrandrea
|editor-first16= L.L |editor-last16= White |editor-first16=L. L. |editor-last16=White
|publisher= Cambridge University Press |publisher=]
|isbn= 978-1-107-05807-1 |isbn=978-1-107-05807-1
|url= <!-- ** I haven't added AR5 urls yet as I have not determined which is best. -JJ --> |url=<!-- ** I haven't added AR5 urls yet as I have not determined which is best. -JJ -->
}} (pb: {{ISBNT|978-1-107-64165-5}}). Chapters 1–20, SPM, and Technical Summary. }}. Chapters 1–20, SPM, and Technical Summary.
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Summary for Policymakers|2014}} ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch13|2014}}
|chapter= Summary for Policymakers |chapter=Chapter 13: Livelihoods and Poverty
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdf |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap13_FINAL.pdf
|display-authors=4
|year= 2014
|first1=L. |last1=Olsson
|author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC
|first2=M. |last2=Opondo
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
|first3=P. |last3=Tschakert
|pages= 1–32
|first4=A. |last4=Agrawal
|first5=S. H. |last5=Eriksen
|first6=S. |last6=Ma
|first7=L. N. |last7=Perch
|first8=S. A. |last8=Zakieldeen
|year=2014
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
|pages=793–832
}} }}
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Technical Summary|2014}} ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch18|2014}}
|chapter=Chapter 18: Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts
|chapter= Technical Summary
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-TS_FINAL.pdf |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap18_FINAL.pdf
|year= 2014 |year=2014
|display-authors=4
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
|first1=W. |last1=Cramer
|pages= 35–94
|first2=G. W. |last2=Yohe
|display-authors= 4
|first1= C.B. |last1= Field |first3=M. |last3=Auffhammer
|first2= V.R. |last2= Barros |first4=C. |last4=Huggel
|first3= K.J. |last3= Mach |first5=U. |last5=Molau
|first4= M.D. |last4= Mastrandrea |first6=M. A. F. |last6=da Silva Dias
|first5= M. |last5= van Aalst |first7=A. |last7=Solow
|first6= W.N. |last6= Adger |first8=D. A. |last8=Stone
|first7= D.J. |last7= Arent |first9=L. |last9=Tibig
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
|first8= J. |last8= Barnett
|pages=979–1037
|first9= R. |last9= Betts <!-- and 50 others -->
}} }}
** {{Cite book | ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch3|2014}} ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch19|2014}}
|chapter= Chapter 3: Freshwater Resources |chapter=Chapter 19: Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap3_FINAL.pdf |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap19_FINAL.pdf
|year=2014
|display-authors= 4
|display-authors=4
|first1= B. E. |last1= Jiménez Cisneros
|first1=M. |last1=Oppenheimer
|first2= T. |last2= Oki
|first3= N. W. |last3= Arnell |first2=M. |last2=Campos
|first4= G. |last4= Benito |first3=R. |last3=Warren
|first5= J. G. |last5= Cogley |first4=J. |last4=Birkmann
|first6= P. |last6= Döll |first5=G. |last5=Luber
|first7= T. |last7= Jiang |first6=B. |last6=O'Neill
|first8= S. S. |last8= Mwakalila |first7=K. |last7=Takahashi
|year= 2014 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
|pages=1039–1099
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
|pages= 229–269
}} }}
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch7|2014}} * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 B|2014}}
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|chapter= Chapter 7: Food Security and Food Production Systems
|year=2014
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap7_FINAL.pdf
|title=Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects
|year= 2014
|series=Contribution of Working Group II to the ] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|display-authors= 4
|display-editors=4
|first1= J.R. |last1= Porter
|editor-first1=V. R. |editor-last1=Barros
|first2= L. |last2= Xie
|editor-first2=C. B. |editor-last2=Field
|first3= A.J. |last3= Challinor
|editor-first3=D. J. |editor-last3=Dokken
|first4= K. |last4= Cochrane
|editor-first4=K. J. |editor-last4=Mach
|first5= S.M. |last5= Howden
|editor-first5=M. D. |editor-last5=Mastrandrea
|first6= M.M. |last6= Iqbal
|editor-first6=T. E. |editor-last6=Bilir
|first7= D.B. |last7= Lobell
|editor-first7=M. |editor-last7=Chatterjee
|first8= M.I. |last8= Travasso
|editor-first8=K. L. |editor-last8=Ebi

|editor-first9=Y. O. |editor-last9=Estrada
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
|editor-first10=R. C. |editor-last10=Genova
|pages= 485–533
|editor-first11=B. |editor-last11=Girma
}}
|editor-first12=E. S. |editor-last12=Kissel
** {{Cite book |ref = {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch11|2014}}
|editor-first13=A. N. |editor-last13=Levy
|chapter = Chapter 11: Human Health: Impacts, Adaptation, and Co-Benefits
|editor-first14=S. |editor-last14=MacCracken
|chapter-url= https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap11_FINAL.pdf
|editor-first15=P. R. |editor-last15=Mastrandrea
|year= 2014
|editor-first16=L.L |editor-last16=White
|display-authors= 4
|publisher=]
|first1 = K. R. |last1 = Smith
|place=Cambridge, UK & New York
|first2 = A. |last2 = Woodward
|isbn=978-1-107-05816-3
|first3 = D. |last3 = Campbell-Lendrum
|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-PartB_FINAL.pdf
|first4 = D. D. |last4 = Chadee
}}. Chapters 21–30, Annexes, and Index.
|first5 = Y. |last5 = Honda
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch28|2014}}
|first6 = Q. |last6 = Lui
|chapter=Chapter 28: Polar Regions
|first7 = J. M. |last7 = Olwoch
|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap28_FINAL.pdf
|first8 = B. |last8 = Revich
|display-authors=4
|first9 = R. |last9 = Sauerborn
|first1=J. N. |last1=Larsen
|title = In {{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
|first2=O. A. |last2=Anisimov
|pages= 709–754
|first3=A. |last3=Constable
}}
|first4=A. B. |last4=Hollowed
**{{Cite book | ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch13|2014}}
|first5=N. |last5=Maynard
|chapter= Chapter 13: Livelihoods and Poverty
|first6=P. |last6=Prestrud
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap13_FINAL.pdf
|first7=T. D. |last7=Prowse
|display-authors= 4
|first1= L. |last1= Olsson |first8=J. M. R.|last8=Stone
|year=2014
|first2= M. |last2= Opondo
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 B|2014}}
|first3= P. |last3= Tschakert
|pages=1567–1612
|first4= A. |last4= Agrawal
|first5= S. H. |last5= Eriksen
|first6= S. |last6= Ma
|first7= L. N. |last7= Perch
|first8= S. A. |last8= Zakieldeen
|year= 2014
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
|pages= 793–832
}}
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch18|2014}}
|chapter= Chapter 18: Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap18_FINAL.pdf
|year= 2014
|display-authors= 4
|first1= W. |last1= Cramer
|first2= G.W. |last2= Yohe
|first3= M. |last3= Auffhammer
|first4= C. |last4= Huggel
|first5= U. |last5= Molau
|first6= M.A.F. |last6= da Silva Dias
|first7= A. |last7= Solow
|first8= D.A. |last8= Stone
|first9= L. |last9= Tibig
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
|pages= 979–1037
}}
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch19|2014}}
|chapter= Chapter 19: Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap19_FINAL.pdf
|year= 2014
|display-authors= 4
|first1= M. |last1= Oppenheimer
|first2= M. |last2= Campos
|first3= R. |last3= Warren
|first4= J. |last4= Birkmann
|first5= G. |last5= Luber
|first6= B. |last6= O'Neill
|first7= K. |last7= Takahashi
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
|pages= 1039–1099
}} }}


<!-- ------------------------------ --> <!-- ------------------------------ -->
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG3|2014}}
'''AR5 Working Group III Report'''
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
* {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG3|2014}}
|year=2014
|author = IPCC |author-link = IPCC
|title=Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change
|year= 2014
|series=Contribution of Working Group III to the ] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|title= Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change
|display-editors=4
|series= Contribution of Working Group III to the ] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|editor-first1=O. |editor-last1=Edenhofer
|display-editors= 4
|editor-first1= O. |editor-last1= Edenhofer |editor-first2=R. |editor-last2=Pichs-Madruga
|editor-first2= R. |editor-last2= Pichs-Madruga |editor-first3=Y. |editor-last3=Sokona
|editor-first3= Y. |editor-last3= Sokona |editor-first4=E. |editor-last4=Farahani
|editor-first4= E. |editor-last4= Farahani |editor-first5=S. |editor-last5=Kadner
|editor-first5= S. |editor-last5= Kadner |editor-first6=K. |editor-last6=Seyboth
|editor-first6= K. |editor-last6= Seyboth |editor-first7=A. |editor-last7=Adler
|editor-first7= A. |editor-last7= Adler |editor-first8=I. |editor-last8=Baum
|editor-first8= I. |editor-last8= Baum |editor-first9=S. |editor-last9=Brunner
|editor-first9= S. |editor-last9= Brunner |editor-first10=P. |editor-last10=Eickemeier
|editor-first10= P. |editor-last10= Eickemeier |editor-first11=B. |editor-last11=Kriemann
|editor-first11= B. |editor-last11= Kriemann |editor-first12=J. |editor-last12=Savolainen
|editor-first12= J. |editor-last12= Savolainen |editor-first13=S. |editor-last13=Schlömer
|editor-first13= S. |editor-last13= Schlömer |editor-first14=C. |editor-last14=von Stechow
|editor-first14= C. |editor-last14= von Stechow |editor-first15=T. |editor-last15=Zwickel
|editor-first15= T. |editor-last15= Zwickel |editor-first16=J. C. |editor-last16=Minx
|publisher=]
|editor-first16= J.C. |editor-last16= Minx
|publisher= Cambridge University Press |place=Cambridge, UK & New York, NY
|isbn= 978-1-107-05821-7
|place= Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
}}
|isbn= 978-1-107-05821-7
<!-- ## -->
}} (pb: {{ISBNT|978-1-107-65481-5}}).
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG3 Summary for Policymakers|2014}} ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch9|2014}}
|chapter= Summary for Policymakers |chapter=Chapter 9: Buildings
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers.pdf |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter9.pdf
|year= 2014 |year=2014
|display-authors=4
|author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC
|first1=O. |last1=Lucon
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3|2014}}
|first2=D. |last2=Ürge-Vorsatz
|first3=A. |last3=Ahmed
|first4=H. |last4=Akbari
|first5=P. |last5=Bertoldi
|first6=L. |last6=Cabeza
|first7=N. |last7=Eyre
|first8=A. |last8=Gadgil
|first9=L. D. |last9=Harvey
|first10=Y. |last10=Jiang
|first11=E. |last11=Liphoto
|first12=S. |last12=Mirasgedis
|first13=S. |last13=Murakami
|first14=J. |last14=Parikh
|first15=C. |last15=Pyke
|first16=M. |last16=Vilariño
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3|2014}}
}} }}
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG3 Technical Summary|2014}} ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG3 Annex III|2014}}
|chapter=Annex III: Technology-specific Cost and Performance Parameters
|chapter= Technical Summary
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_technical-summary.pdf |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_annex-iii.pdf
|year= 2014 |year=2014
|display-authors= 4 |display-authors=4
|first1= O. |last1= Edenhofer |first1=O. |last1=Edenhofer
|first2= R. |last2= Pichs-Madruga |first2=R. |last2=Pichs-Madruga
|first3= Y. |last3= Sokona |first3=Y. |last3=Sokona
|first4= S. |last4= Kadner |first4=E. |last4=Farahani
|first5= J. C. |last5= Minx |first5=S. |last5=Kadner
|first6= S. |last6= Brunner |first6=K. |last6=Seyboth
|first7= S. |last7= Agrawala |first7=A. |last7=Adler
|first8= G. |last8= Baiocchi |first8=I. |last8=Baum
|first9= I. A. |last9= Bashmakov <!-- And 54 others. --> |first9=S. |last9=Brunner
|first10=P. |last10=Eickemeier
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3|2014}}
|first11=B. |last11=Kriemann
|first12=J. |last12=Savolainen
|first13=S. |last13=Schlömer
|first14=C. |last14=von Stechow
|first15=T. |last15=Zwickel
|first16=J.C. |last16=Minx
|publisher=Cambridge University Press
|location=Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3|2014}}
}} }}
* {{cite book
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch6|2014}}
|author=IPCC AR5 SYR |author-link=IPCC
|chapter= Chapter 6: Assessing Transformation Pathways
|year=2014
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter6.pdf
|title=Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report
|year= 2014
|series=Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the ] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|display-authors= 4
|editor1=The Core Writing Team
|first1= L. |last1= Clarke
|first2= K. |last2= Jiang |editor-first2=R. K. |editor-last2=Pachauri
|first3= K. |last3= Akimoto |editor-first3=L. A. |editor-last3=Meyer
|publisher=IPCC
|first4= M. |last4= Babiker
|place=Geneva, Switzerland
|first5= G. |last5= Blanford
|isbn=<!-- no isbn -->
|first6= K. |last6= Fisher-Vanden
|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
|first7= J.-C. |last7= Hourcade
|first8= V. |last8= Krey
|first9= E. |last9= Kriegler
|first10= A. |last10= Löschel
|first11= D. |last11= McCollum
|first12= S. |last12= Paltsev
|first13= S. |last13= Rose
|first14= P.R. |last14= Shukla
|first15= M. |last15= Tavoni
|first16= B. C. C. |last16= van der Zwaan
|first17= D.P. |last17= van Vuuren
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3|2014}}
}} }}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014}}

|chapter=Summary for Policymakers
'''AR5 Synthesis Report'''
|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf
* {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014}}
|year=2014
|author = IPCC AR5 SYR |author-link = IPCC
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year= 2014
|title= Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014}}
|series= Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the ] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|editor1 = The Core Writing Team
|editor-first2= R.K. |editor-last2= Pachauri
|editor-first3= L.A. |editor-last3= Meyer
|publisher= IPCC
|place= Geneva, Switzerland
|isbn= <!-- no isbn -->
|url= https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
}} }}
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014}} ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014}}
|chapter= Summary for Policymakers |chapter=Annex II: Glossary
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_Annexes.pdf
|year= 2014 |year=2014
|author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014}} |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014}}
}}
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014}}
|chapter= Annex II: Glossary
|chapter-url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_Annexes.pdf
|year= 2014
|author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014}}
}} }}


<!-- ========= SREX ================= --> <!-- =========SR15================== -->
''' Special Report: SREX''' '''Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5&nbsp;°C'''
* {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC SREX|2012}} * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
|author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year= 2012 |year=2018
|title=Global Warming of 1.5&nbsp;°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5&nbsp;°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty
|title= Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation.
|display-editors=4
|series= A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|editor-first1= C.B. |editor-last1= Field |editor-first1=V. |editor-last1=Masson-Delmotte
|editor-first2= V. |editor-last2= Barros |editor-first2=P. |editor-last2=Zhai
|editor-first3= T.F. |editor-last3= Stocker |editor-first3=H.-O. |editor-last3=Pörtner
|editor-first4= D. |editor-last4= Qin |editor-first4=D. |editor-last4=Roberts
|editor-first5= D.J. |editor-last5= Dokken |editor-first5=J. |editor-last5=Skea
|editor-first6= K.L. |editor-last6= Ebi |editor-first6=P. R. |editor-last6=Shukla
|editor-first7= M.D. |editor-last7= Mastrandrea |editor-first7=A. |editor-last7=Pirani
|editor-first8= K.J. |editor-last8= Mach |editor-first8=W. |editor-last8=Moufouma-Okia
|editor-first9= G.-K. |editor-last9= Plattner |editor-first9=C. |editor-last9=Péan
|editor-first10= S.K. |editor-last10= Allen |editor-first10=R. |editor-last10=Pidcock
|editor-first11= M. |editor-last11= Tignor |editor-first11=S. |editor-last11=Connors
|editor-first12= P.M. |editor-last12= Midgley |editor-first12=J. B. R. |editor-last12=Matthews
|editor-first13=Y. |editor-last13=Chen
|publisher= Cambridge University Press
|editor-first14=X. |editor-last14=Zhou
|location= Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA
|editor-first15=M. I. |editor-last15=Gomis
|pages= 582
|editor-first16=E. |editor-last16=Lonnoy
|isbn= 978-1-107-02506-6
|editor-first17=T. |editor-last17=Maycock
|url= https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX_Full_Report.pdf
|editor-first18=M. |editor-last18=Tignor
|editor-first19=T. |editor-last19=Waterfeld
|publisher=]
|isbn=<!-- not issued? -->
|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf
}} Global Warming of 1.5 °C –.
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year=2018
|chapter=Summary for Policymakers
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_SPM_version_report_HR.pdf
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
|pages=3–24
}} }}
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC SREX Summary for Policymakers|2012}}
|chapter= Summary for Policymakers
|chapter-url= https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/SREX_FD_SPM_final-2.pdf
|author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC
|year= 2012
|title= {{harvnb|IPCC SREX|2012}}
|pages= 1–19
}}

<!-- ========= SR15 ================== -->
''' Special Report: SR15'''
*{{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC SR15|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
|author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC
|year= 2018
|title= Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty
|display-editors= 4
|editor-first1= V. |editor-last1= Masson-Delmotte
|editor-first2= P. |editor-last2= Zhai
|editor-first3= H.-O. |editor-last3= Pörtner
|editor-first4= D. |editor-last4= Roberts
|editor-first5= J. |editor-last5= Skea
|editor-first6= P. R. |editor-last6= Shukla
|editor-first7= A. |editor-last7= Pirani
|editor-first8= W. |editor-last8= Moufouma-Okia
|editor-first9= C. |editor-last9= Péan
|editor-first10= R. |editor-last10= Pidcock
|editor-first11= S. |editor-last11= Connors
|editor-first12= J. B. R. |editor-last12= Matthews
|editor-first13= Y. |editor-last13= Chen
|editor-first14= X. |editor-last14= Zhou
|editor-first15= M. I. |editor-last15= Gomis
|editor-first16= E. |editor-last16= Lonnoy
|editor-first17= T. |editor-last17= Maycock
|editor-first18= M. |editor-last18= Tignor
|editor-first19= T. |editor-last19= Waterfeld
|publisher= Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|isbn= <!-- not issued? -->
|url= https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf
}} https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/.
<!-- ## --> <!-- ## -->
**{{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 --> ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
|year=2018
|author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC
|chapter=Chapter 1: Framing and Context
|year= 2018
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter1_High_Res.pdf
|chapter= Summary for Policymakers
|display-authors=4
|chapter-url= https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_SPM_version_report_HR.pdf
|first1=M. R. |last1=Allen
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
|first2=O. P. |last2=Dube
|pages= 3–24
|first3=W. |last3=Solecki
}}
|first4=F. |last4=Aragón-Durand
<!-- ## -->
|first5=W. |last5=Cramer
** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
|first6=S. |last6=Humphreys
|year= 2018
|first7=M. |last7=Kainuma
|chapter= Chapter 1: Framing and Context
|first8=J. |last8=Kala
|chapter-url= https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter1_High_Res.pdf
|first9=N. |last9=Mahowald
|display-authors= 4
|first1= M. R. |last1= Allen |first10=Y. |last10=Mulugetta
|first2= O. P. |last2= Dube |first11=R. |last11=Perez
|first3= W. |last3= Solecki |first12=M. |last12=Wairiu
|first13=K. |last13=Zickfeld
|first4= F. |last4= Aragón-Durand
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
|first5= W. |last5= Cramer
|pages=49–91
|first6= S. |last6= Humphreys
|first7= M. |last7= Kainuma
|first8= J. |last8= Kala
|first9= N. |last9= Mahowald
|first10= Y. |last10= Mulugetta
|first11= R. |last11= Perez
|first12= M. |last12= Wairiu
|first13= K. |last13= Zickfeld
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
|pages= 49–91
}} }}
<!-- ## --> <!-- ## -->
**{{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 --> ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
|year= 2018 |year=2018
|chapter= Chapter 2: Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C in the Context of Sustainable Development |chapter=Chapter 2: Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5&nbsp;°C in the Context of Sustainable Development
|chapter-url= https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter2_High_Res.pdf |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter2_High_Res.pdf
|display-authors= 4 |display-authors=4
|first1= J. |last1= Rogelj |first1=J. |last1=Rogelj |author1-link=Joeri Rogelj
|first2= D. |last2= Shindell |first2=D. |last2=Shindell
|first3= K. |last3= Jiang |first3=K. |last3=Jiang
|first4= S. |last4= Fifta |first4=S. |last4=Fifta
|first5= P. |last5= Forster |first5=P. |last5=Forster
|first6= V. |last6= Ginzburg |first6=V. |last6=Ginzburg
|first7= C. |last7= Handa |first7=C. |last7=Handa
|first8= H. |last8= Kheshgi |first8=H. |last8=Kheshgi
|first9= S. |last9= Kobayashi |first9=S. |last9=Kobayashi
|first10= E. |last10= Kriegler |first10=E. |last10=Kriegler
|first11= L. |last11= Mundaca |first11=L. |last11=Mundaca
|first12= R. |last12= Séférian |first12=R. |last12=Séférian
|first13= M. V. |last13= Vilariño |first13=M. V. |last13=Vilariño
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}} |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
|pages= 93–174 |pages=93–174
}} }}
<!-- ## --> <!-- ## -->
**{{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 --> ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
|year= 2018 |year=2018
|chapter= Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5ºC Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems |chapter=Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5&nbsp;°C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems
|chapter-url= https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter3_High_Res.pdf |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter3_High_Res.pdf
|display-authors= 4 |display-authors=4
|first1= O. |last1= Hoegh-Guldberg |first1=O. |last1=Hoegh-Guldberg
|first2= D. |last2= Jacob |first2=D. |last2=Jacob
|first3= M. |last3= Taylor |first3=M. |last3=Taylor
|first4= M. |last4= Bindi |first4=M. |last4=Bindi
|first5= S. |last5= Brown |first5=S. |last5=Brown
|first6= I. |last6= Camilloni |first6=I. |last6=Camilloni
|first7= A. |last7= Diedhiou |first7=A. |last7=Diedhiou
|first8= R. |last8= Djalante |first8=R. |last8=Djalante
|first9= K. L. |last9= Ebi |first9=K. L. |last9=Ebi
|first10= F. |last10= Engelbrecht |first10=F. |last10=Engelbrecht
|first11= J. |last11= Guiot |first11=J. |last11=Guiot
|first12= Y. |last12= Hijioka |first12=Y. |last12=Hijioka
|first13= S. |last13= Mehrotra |first13=S. |last13=Mehrotra
|first14= A. |last14= Payne |first14=A. |last14=Payne
|first15= S. I.|last15= Seneviratne |first15=S. I.|last15=Seneviratne
|first16= A. |last16= Thomas |first16=A. |last16=Thomas
|first17= R. |last17= Warren |first17=R. |last17=Warren
|first18= G. |last18= Zhou |first18=G. |last18=Zhou
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}} |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
|pages= 175–311 |pages=175–311
}} }}
<!-- ## --> <!-- ## -->
**{{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 --> ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
|year= 2018 |year=2018
|chapter= Chapter 4: Strengthening and Implementing the Global Response |chapter=Chapter 4: Strengthening and Implementing the Global Response
|chapter-url= https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter4_High_Res.pdf |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter4_High_Res.pdf
|display-authors= 4 |display-authors=4
|first1= H. |last1= de Coninck |first1=H. |last1=de Coninck
|first2= A. |last2= Revi |first2=A. |last2=Revi
|first3= M. |last3= Babiker |first3=M. |last3=Babiker
|first4= P. |last4= Bertoldi |first4=P. |last4=Bertoldi
|first5= M. |last5= Buckeridge |first5=M. |last5=Buckeridge
|first6= A. |last6= Cartwright |first6=A. |last6=Cartwright
|first7= W. |last7= Dong |first7=W. |last7=Dong
|first8= J. |last8= Ford |first8=J. |last8=Ford
|first9= S. |last9= Fuss |first9=S. |last9=Fuss
|first10= J.-C. |last10= Hourcade |first10=J.-C. |last10=Hourcade
|first11= D. |last11= Ley |first11=D. |last11=Ley
|first12= R. |last12= Mechler |first12=R. |last12=Mechler
|first13= P. |last13= Newman |first13=P. |last13=Newman
|first14= A. |last14= Revokatova |first14=A. |last14=Revokatova
|first15= S. |last15= Schultz |first15=S. |last15=Schultz
|first16= L. |last16= Steg |first16=L. |last16=Steg
|first17= T. |last17= Sugiyama |first17=T. |last17=Sugiyama
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}} |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
|pages= 313–443 |pages=313–443
}} }}
<!-- ## --> <!-- ## -->
**{{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch5|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 --> ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch5|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
|year= 2018 |year=2018
|chapter= Chapter 5: Sustainable Development, Poverty Eradication and Reducing Inequalities |chapter=Chapter 5: Sustainable Development, Poverty Eradication and Reducing Inequalities
|chapter-url= https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter5_High_Res.pdf |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter5_High_Res.pdf
|display-authors= 4 |display-authors=4
|first1= J. |last1= Roy |first1=J. |last1=Roy
|first2= P. |last2= Tschakert |first2=P. |last2=Tschakert
|first3= H. |last3= Waisman |first3=H. |last3=Waisman
|first4= S. |last4= Abdul Halim |first4=S. |last4=Abdul Halim
|first5= P. |last5= Antwi-Agyei |first5=P. |last5=Antwi-Agyei
|first6= P. |last6= Dasgupta |first6=P. |last6=Dasgupta
|first7= B. |last7= Hayward |first7=B. |last7=Hayward
|first8= M. |last8= Kanninen |first8=M. |last8=Kanninen
|first9= D. |last9= Liverman |first9=D. |last9=Liverman
|first10= C. |last10= Okereke |first10=C. |last10=Okereke
|first11= P. F. |last11= Pinho |first11=P. F. |last11=Pinho
|first12= K. |last12= Riahi |first12=K. |last12=Riahi
|first13= A. G. |last13= Suarez Rodriguez |first13=A. G. |last13=Suarez Rodriguez
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}} |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
|pages= 445–538 |pages=445–538
}} }}


<!-- ========= SRCCL ============================ --> <!-- =========SRCCL ============================ -->
''' Special Report: Climate change and Land''' '''Special Report: Climate change and Land'''
*{{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC SRCCL|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 --> * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SRCCL|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 -->
|author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|display-editors= 4 |display-editors=4
|editor-first1= P.R. |editor-last1= Shukla |editor-first1=P. R. |editor-last1=Shukla
|editor-first2= J. |editor-last2= Skea |editor-first2=J. |editor-last2=Skea
|editor-first3= E. |editor-last3= Calvo Buendia |editor-first3=E. |editor-last3=Calvo Buendia
|editor-first4= V. |editor-last4= Masson-Delmotte |editor-first4=V. |editor-last4=Masson-Delmotte
|editor-first5= H.-O. |editor-last5= Pörtner |editor-first5=H.-O. |editor-last5=Pörtner
|editor-first6= D. |editor-last6= C. Roberts |editor-first6=D. |editor-last6=C. Roberts
|editor-first7= P. |editor-last7= Zhai |editor-first7=P. |editor-last7=Zhai
|editor-first8= R. |editor-last8= Slade |editor-first8=R. |editor-last8=Slade
|editor-first9= S. |editor-last9= Connors |editor-first9=S. |editor-last9=Connors
|editor-first10= R. |editor-last10= van Diemen |editor-first10=R. |editor-last10=van Diemen
|editor-first11= M. |editor-last11= Ferrat |editor-first11=M. |editor-last11=Ferrat
|editor-first12= E. |editor-last12= Haughey |editor-first12=E. |editor-last12=Haughey
|editor-first13= S. |editor-last13= Luz |editor-first13=S. |editor-last13=Luz
|editor-first14= S. |editor-last14= Neogi |editor-first14=S. |editor-last14=Neogi
|editor-first15= M. |editor-last15= Pathak |editor-first15=M. |editor-last15=Pathak
|editor-first16= J. |editor-last16= Petzold |editor-first16=J. |editor-last16=Petzold
|editor-first17= J. |editor-last17= Portugal Pereira |editor-first17=J. |editor-last17=Portugal Pereira
|editor-first18= P. |editor-last18= Vyas |editor-first18=P. |editor-last18=Vyas
|editor-first19= E. |editor-last19= Huntley |editor-first19=E. |editor-last19=Huntley
|editor-first20= K. |editor-last20= Kissick |editor-first20=K. |editor-last20=Kissick
|editor-first21= M. |editor-last21= Belkacemi |editor-first21=M. |editor-last21=Belkacemi
|editor-first22= J. |editor-last22= Malley |editor-first22=J. |editor-last22=Malley
|year= 2019 |year=2019
|title= IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse gas fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems |title=IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse gas fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems
|url= https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/11/SRCCL-Full-Report-Compiled-191128.pdf |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/11/SRCCL-Full-Report-Compiled-191128.pdf
|publisher= In press |publisher=In press
}} }}
<!-- ## --> <!-- ## -->
**{{Cite book | ref= {{harvid|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 --> ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 -->
|chapter= Summary for Policymakers |chapter=Summary for Policymakers
|chapter-url= https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/4/2019/12/02_Summary-for-Policymakers_SPM.pdf |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/4/2019/12/02_Summary-for-Policymakers_SPM.pdf
|author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC <!-- |display-authors= 4 --> |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year= 2019 |year=2019
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019}} |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019}}
|pages= 3–34 |pages=3–34
}} }}
<!-- ## --> <!-- ## -->
**{{Cite book | ref= {{harvid|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 --> ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 -->
|chapter= Chapter 2: Land-Climate Interactions |chapter=Chapter 2: Land-Climate Interactions
|chapter-url= https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/11/05_Chapter-2.pdf |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/11/05_Chapter-2.pdf
|display-authors= 4 |display-authors=4
|first1= G. |last1= Jia |first1=G. |last1=Jia
|first2= E. |last2= Shevliakova |first2=E. |last2=Shevliakova
|first3= P. E. |last3= Artaxo<!-- 'Artaxo-Netto'? --> |first3=P. E. |last3=Artaxo<!-- 'Artaxo-Netto'? -->
|first4= N. |last4= De Noblet-Ducoudré |first4=N. |last4=De Noblet-Ducoudré
|first5= R. |last5= Houghton |first5=R. |last5=Houghton
|first6= J. |last6= House |first6=J. |last6=House
|first7= K. |last7= Kitajima |first7=K. |last7=Kitajima
|first8= C. |last8= Lennard |first8=C. |last8=Lennard
|first9= A. |last9= Popp |first9=A. |last9=Popp
|first10= A. |last10= Sirin |first10=A. |last10=Sirin
|first11= R. |last11= Sukumar |first11=R. |last11=Sukumar
|first12= L. |last12= Verchot |first12=L. |last12=Verchot
|year= 2019 |year=2019
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019}} |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019}}
|pages= 131–247 |pages=131–247
}} }}
<!-- ## --> <!-- ## -->
**{{Cite book | ref= {{harvid|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 --> ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 -->
|chapter= Chapter 5: Food Security |chapter=Chapter 5: Food Security
|chapter-url= https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/11/08_Chapter-5.pdf |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/11/08_Chapter-5.pdf
|display-authors= 4 |display-authors=4
|first1= C. |last1= Mbow |first1=C. |last1=Mbow
|first2= C. |last2= Rosenzweig |first2=C. |last2=Rosenzweig
|first3= L. G. |last3= Barioni |first3=L. G. |last3=Barioni
|first4= T. |last4= Benton |first4=T. |last4=Benton
|first5= M. |last5= Herrero |first5=M. |last5=Herrero
|first6= M. V. |last6= Krishnapillai |first6=M. V. |last6=Krishnapillai
|first7= E. |last7= Liwenga |first7=E. |last7=Liwenga
|first8= P. |last8= Pradhan |first8=P. |last8=Pradhan
|first9= M. G. |last9= Rivera-Ferre |first9=M. G. |last9=Rivera-Ferre
|first10= T. |last10= Sapkota |first10=T. |last10=Sapkota
|first11= F. N. |last11= Tubiello |first11=F. N. |last11=Tubiello
|first12= Y. |last12= Xu |first12=Y. |last12=Xu
|year= 2019 |year=2019
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019}} |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019}}
|pages= 437–550 |pages=437–550
}} }}
<!-- ## -->


<!-- =========SROCC ============================ -->
<!-- ................................... -->
'''Special Report: The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate'''
<!-- ========= SROCC ============================ -->
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SROCC|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200202 -->
'''Special Report: SROCC'''
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
* {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC SROCC|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200202 -->
|year=2019
|author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC
|display-editors=4
|year= 2019
|editor-first1=H.-O. |editor-last1=Pörtner
|display-editors= 4
|editor-first1= H.-O. |editor-last1= Pörtner |editor-first2=D. C. |editor-last2=Roberts
|editor-first2= D.C. |editor-last2= Roberts |editor-first3=V. |editor-last3=Masson-Delmotte
|editor-first3= V. |editor-last3= Masson-Delmotte |editor-first4=P. |editor-last4=Zhai
|editor-first4= P. |editor-last4= Zhai |editor-first5=M. |editor-last5=Tignor
|editor-first5= M. |editor-last5= Tignor |editor-first6=E. |editor-last6=Poloczanska
|editor-first6= E. |editor-last6= Poloczanska |editor-first7=K. |editor-last7=Mintenbeck
|editor-first7= K. |editor-last7= Mintenbeck |editor-first8=A. |editor-last8=Alegría
|editor-first8= A. |editor-last8= Alegría |editor-first9=M. |editor-last9=Nicolai
|editor-first9= M. |editor-last9= Nicolai |editor-first10=A. |editor-last10=Okem
|editor-first10= A. |editor-last10= Okem |editor-first11=J. |editor-last11=Petzold
|editor-first11= J. |editor-last11= Petzold |editor-first12=B. |editor-last12=Rama
|editor-first12= B. |editor-last12= Rama |editor-first13=N. |editor-last13=Weyer
|title=IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate
|editor-first13= N. |editor-last13= Weyer
|publisher=In press
|title= IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate
|isbn=<!-- Not yet assigned -->
|publisher= In press
|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/12/SROCC_FullReport_FINAL.pdf
|isbn= <!-- Not yet assigned -->
|url= https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/12/SROCC_FullReport_FINAL.pdf
}} }}
<!-- ## --> <!-- ## -->
**{{Cite book | ref= {{harvid|IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200202 --> ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200202 -->
|chapter= Summary for Policymakers |chapter=Summary for Policymakers
|chapter-url= https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/03_SROCC_SPM_FINAL.pdf |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/03_SROCC_SPM_FINAL.pdf
|author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC <!-- |display-authors= 4 --> |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year= 2019 |year=2019
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019}} |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019}}
|pages= 3–35 |pages=3–35
}} }}
<!-- ## --> <!-- ## -->
**{{Cite book | ref= {{harvid|IPCC SROCC Ch4|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200202 --> ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SROCC Ch4|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200202 -->
|chapter= Chapter 4: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities |chapter=Chapter 4: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities
|chapter-url= https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/08_SROCC_Ch04_FINAL.pdf |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/08_SROCC_Ch04_FINAL.pdf
|display-authors= 4 |display-authors=4
|first1= M. |last1= Oppenheimer |first1=M. |last1=Oppenheimer
|first2= B. |last2= Glavovic |first2=B. |last2=Glavovic
|first3= J. |last3= Hinkel |first3=J. |last3=Hinkel
|first4= R. |last4= van de Wal |first4=R. |last4=van de Wal
|first5= A. K. |last5= Magnan |first5=A. K. |last5=Magnan
|first6= A. |last6= Abd-Elgawad |first6=A. |last6=Abd-Elgawad
|first7= R. |last7= Cai |first7=R. |last7=Cai
|first8= M. |last8= Cifuentes-Jara |first8=M. |last8=Cifuentes-Jara
|first9= R. M. |last9= Deconto |first9=R. M. |last9=Deconto
|first10= T. |last10= Ghosh |first10=T. |last10=Ghosh
|first11= J. |last11= Hay |first11=J. |last11=Hay
|first12= F. |last12= Isla |first12=F. |last12=Isla
|first13= B. |last13= Marzeion |first13=B. |last13=Marzeion
|first14= B. |last14= Meyssignac |first14=B. |last14=Meyssignac
|first15= Z. |last15= Sebesvari |first15=Z. |last15=Sebesvari
|year= 2019 |year=2019
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019}} |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019}}
|pages= 321–445 |pages=321–445
}} }}
<!-- ## --> <!-- ## -->
**{{Cite book | ref= {{harvid|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200202 --> ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200202 -->
|chapter= Chapter 5: Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities |chapter=Chapter 5: Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities
|chapter-url= https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/09_SROCC_Ch05_FINAL.pdf |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/09_SROCC_Ch05_FINAL.pdf
|display-authors= 4 |display-authors=4
|first1= N. L. |last1= Bindoff |first1=N. L. |last1=Bindoff
|first2= W. W. L. |last2= Cheung |first2=W. W. L. |last2=Cheung
|first3= J. G. |last3= Kairo |first3=J. G. |last3=Kairo
|first4= J. |last4= Arístegui |first4=J. |last4=Arístegui
|first5= V. A. |last5= Guinder |first5=V. A. |last5=Guinder
|first6= R. |last6= Hallberg |first6=R. |last6=Hallberg
|first7= N. J. M. |last7= Hilmi |first7=N. J. M. |last7=Hilmi
|first8= N. |last8= Jiao |first8=N. |last8=Jiao
|first9= Md S. |last9= Karim |first9=Md S. |last9=Karim
|first10= L. |last10= Levin |first10=L. |last10=Levin
|first11= S. |last11= O'Donoghue |first11=S. |last11=O'Donoghue
|first12= S. R. |last12= Purca Cuicapusa |first12=S. R. |last12=Purca Cuicapusa
|first13= B. |last13= Rinkevich |first13=B. |last13=Rinkevich
|first14= T. |last14= Suga |first14=T. |last14=Suga
|first15= A. |last15= Tagliabue |first15=A. |last15=Tagliabue
|first16= P. |last16= Williamson |first16=P. |last16=Williamson
|year= 2019 |year=2019
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019}} |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019}}
|pages= 447-587 |pages=447–587
}} }}
<!-- ## -->


'''Sixth Assessment Report'''
<!-- ................................... -->
* {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1|2021}}

|author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC
{{refend}}
|year= 2021

|title= Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis
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|series= Contribution of Working Group I to the ] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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{{refend}}

==== Books, reports and legal documents ====
{{refbegin|30em}}
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|last1 = Watts |first1= Nick
|last2 = Adger |first2= W Neil
|last3 = Agnolucci |first3= Paolo
|last4 = Blackstock |first4= Jason
|last5 = Byass |first5= Peter
|last6 = Cai |first6= Wenjia
|last7 = Chaytor |first7= Sarah
|last8 = Colbourn |first8= Tim
|last9 = Collins |first9= Mat
|date= November 2015
|title= Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health
|url= http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2815%2960854-6/fulltext|url-status= live
|journal= The Lancet
|volume= 386|issue= 10006|pages= 1861–1914|doi= 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60854-6|pmid= 26111439
|archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20170407184359/http://thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2815%2960854-6/fulltext
|archive-date= 7 April 2017
|last10= Cooper |first10= Adam
|last11= Cox |first11= Peter M
|last12= Depledge |first12= Joanna
|last13= Drummond |first13= Paul
|last14= Ekins |first14= Paul
|last15= Galaz |first15= Victor
|last16= Grace|first16= Delia|last17= Graham|first17= Hilary|last18= Grubb|first18= Michael|last19= Haines|first19= Andy|last20= Hamilton|first20= Ian|last21= Hunter|first21= Alasdair|last22= Jiang|first22= Xujia|last23= Li|first23= Moxuan|last24= Kelman|first24= Ilan|last25= Liang|first25= Lu|last26= Lott|first26= Melissa|last27= Lowe|first27= Robert|last28= Luo|first28= Yong|last29= Mace|first29= Georgina|last30= Maslin|first30= Mark|last31= Nilsson|first31= Maria|last32= Oreszczyn|first32= Tadj|last33= Pye|first33= Steve|last34= Quinn|first34= Tara|last35= Svensdotter|first35= My|last36= Venevsky|first36= Sergey|last37= Warner|first37= Koko|last38= Xu|first38= Bing|last39= Yang|first39= Jun|last40= Yin|first40= Yongyuan|last41= Yu|first41= Chaoqing|last42= Zhang|first42= Qiang|last43= Gong|first43= Peng|last44= Montgomery|first44= Hugh|last45= Costello|first45= Anthony
|df= dmy-all
|display-authors= 4
|hdl= 10871/20783 }}
*{{Cite journal |ref=harv
|last1 = Watts |first1 = Nick
|last2 = Amann |first2 = Markus
|last3 = Arnell |first3 = Nigel
|last4 = Ayeb-Karlsson|first4 = Sonja
|display-authors = 4
|last5 = Belesova |first5=Kristine
|last6 = Boykoff |first6=Maxwell
|last7 = Byass |first7=Peter
|last8 = Cai |first8=Wenjia
|last9 = Campbell-Lendrum|first9=Diarmid
|last10 = Capstick|first10=Stuart
|last11=Chambers|first11=Jonathan
|date = 2019
|title = The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate
|url=https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)32596-6/abstract
|journal=The Lancet|volume=394|issue=10211|pages=1836–1878|doi=10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32596-6|issn=0140-6736|pmid=31733928}}
* {{Cite journal |ref=harv
|author = WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group
|journal = Earth System Science Data
|date = 28 August 2018
|title = Global sea-level budget 1993–present
|volume=10 |issue=3 |pages=1551–1590
|doi=10.5194/essd-10-1551-2018 |issn=1866-3508
|bibcode = 2018ESSD...10.1551W
}}
* {{cite journal | ref = harv
| last = Weart | first = Spencer
| title = Rise of interdisciplinary research on climate
| year = 2013
| volume = 110
| pages = 3657–3664 | number = Supplement 1
| journal = Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
| doi = 10.1073/pnas.1107482109
| pmid = 22778431 | pmc = 3586608 }}
* {{cite journal |ref=harv
|last1 = Wild |first= M.
|last2 = Gilgen |first2 = Hans
|last3 = Roesch |first3 = Andreas
|last4 = Ohmura |first4 = Atsumu
|last5 = Long |first5 = Charles
|display-authors=4
|year=2005
|title=From Dimming to Brightening: Decadal Changes in Solar Radiation at Earth's Surface
|journal=Science |volume=308 |issue=5723
|doi=10.1126/science.1103215 |pages=847–850 |pmid=15879214 |bibcode=2005Sci...308..847W
|url = http://rcin.org.pl/Content/58263
}}
* {{cite journal |ref=harv
|last1 = Wolff |first1=Eric W.
|last2 = Shepherd |first2=John G.
|last3 = Shuckburgh |first3=Emily
|last4 = Watson |first4=Andrew J.
|title=Feedbacks on climate in the Earth system: introduction
|journal=Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
|pmid=26438277 |pmc=4608041 |doi=10.1098/rsta.2014.0428 |date=2015
|volume=373 |issue=2054 |page=20140428|bibcode=2015RSPTA.37340428W
}}
* {{cite journal |ref=harv
|title = The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions
|last1 = Wynes | first1 = Seth
|last2 = Nicholas | first2 = Kimberly A
|date = 2017
|journal = ]
|volume = 12
|page = 074024 | number = 7
|doi = 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7541 |bibcode = 2017ERL....12g4024W
}}
* {{cite journal |ref=harv
|last1 = Zeng |first=Ning
|last2 = Yoon |first2=Jinho
|title=Expansion of the world's deserts due to vegetation-albedo feedback under global warming
|date=2009
|journal=]
|volume=36 |issue=17 |page=L17401
|bibcode=2009GeoRL..3617401Z|doi=10.1029/2009GL039699|issn=1944-8007
|url = https://semanticscholar.org/paper/8ed42f413b7e01786e02c8d6fa0ae3e4ea49d91b }}
* {{cite journal |ref=harv
|last1 = Zhang |first1 = Jinlun
|last2 = Lindsay |first2 = Ron
|last3 = Steele |first3 = Mike
|last4 = Schweiger |first4 = Axel
|date = 2008
|title = What drove the dramatic arctic sea ice retreat during summer 2007?
|journal=Geophysical Research Letters |volume=35 |pages=1–5
|doi=10.1029/2008gl034005 |bibcode=2008GeoRL..3511505Z
|url = https://semanticscholar.org/paper/732ffff1778fb55d440069329ec3257b01e6b149 }}
{{refend}}<!--
................................... -->

=== Books, reports and legal documents ===
{{refbegin}}
*{{cite book|ref=harv
|first1=David |last1= Archer
|authorlink=David Archer (scientist)
|first2=Raymond |last2=Pierrehumbert
|authorlink2=Raymond Pierrehumbert
|title=The Warming Papers: The Scientific Foundation for the Climate Change Forecast
|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=sPY9HOfnuS0C&pg=PT10|date= 2013|publisher=John Wiley & Sons|isbn=978-1-118-68733-8
}}
* {{Cite book |ref=harv
|last = Bhargava |first=Gopal
|year = 2002
|url=https://books.google.com/?id=r9WY_ul29cQC&pg=PA211&dq=inadvertent+climate+modification#v=onepage&q=inadvertent%20climate%20modification&f=false
|title=Ecological Politics: Different Dimensions
|publisher=Gyan Publishing House
|isbn=9788178350196
}}
*{{cite web |ref = {{harvid|Climate Focus|2015}}
|title= The Paris Agreement: Summary. Climate Focus Client Brief on the Paris Agreement III
|author= Climate Focus
|date= December 2015
|access-date= 12 April 2019
|url=https://climatefocus.com/sites/default/files/20151228%20COP%2021%20briefing%20FIN.pdf
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181005005832/https://climatefocus.com/sites/default/files/20151228%20COP%2021%20briefing%20FIN.pdf
|archive-date=5 October 2018
|url-status=live
}}
* {{cite book |ref=harv
|last1 = Clark |first1= P. U.
|last2 = Weaver |first2 = A.J.
|last3 = Brook |first3 = E.
|last4 = Cook |first4 = E.R.
|last5 = Delworth |first5 = T.L.
|last6 = Steffen |first6 = K.
|chapter = Executive Summary
|title = In: Abrupt Climate Change. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research
|display-authors = 4
|chapter-url = http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-4/final-report/default.htm
|date = December 2008
|publisher = U.S. Geological Survey |location=Reston, VA
|url-status = dead
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20130504113820/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-4/final-report/default.htm
|archive-date = 4 May 2013
}}
* {{cite report |ref=harv
| author = Climate Action Tracker
| year = 2019
| title = Warming projections global update, December 2019
| url = https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/698/CAT_2019-12-10_BriefingCOP25_WarmingProjectionsGlobalUpdate_Dec2019.pdf
}}
*{{Cite report |ref={{harvid|European Commission, 28 November|2018}}
| title=In-depth analysis accompanying the Commission Communication COM(2018) 773: A Clean Planet for all - A European strategic long-term vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy
| author= European Commission
|date=28 November 2018
|location=Brussels
|url=https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/docs/pages/com_2018_733_analysis_in_support_en_0.pdf
|page=188
|access-date=
}}
* {{cite book |ref=harv
|title = The Callendar Effect: the life and work of Guy Stewart Callendar (1898–1964)
|year = 2007
|last = Fleming |first = James Rodger
|publisher = American Meteorological Society
|location = Boston
|isbn = 978-1-878220-76-9
}}
*{{Cite report |ref={{harvid|Congressional Research Service|2009}}
|title=The carbon cycle: implications for climate and congress
|last=Folger |first=Peter
|date=2009
|url=https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL34059.pdf
|publisher=Congressional Research Service
}}
*{{cite report |ref=harv
|title=North American Supergrid
|date = September 2019
|editor-last1 = Fowler |editor-first1 = Brian
|editor-last2 = Baum |editor-first2 = Rudy
|editor-last3 = Borth |editor-first3 = Amanda
|editor-last4 = Levine |editor-first4 = Rachel
|editor-last5 = McBee |editor-first5 = Joshua
|url=http://climate.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/supergrid_9_2019.pdf
|publisher=Climate Institute (USA)
|accessdate=26 January 2020}}
*{{cite web |ref= {{harvid|Joint science academies' statement|2005}}
|date= 2005
|title= Joint science academies' statement: Global response to climate change
|author1 = Academia Brasileira de Ciéncias (Brazil)
|author2 = Royal Society of Canada
|author3 = Chinese Academy of Sciences
|author4 = Académie des Sciences (France)
|author5= Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina (Germany)
|author6= Indian National Science Academy
|author7= Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy)
|author8= Science Council of Japan, Academia Mexicana de Ciencias
|author9= Russian Academy of Sciences
|author10= Royal Society (United Kingdom)
|author11= National Academy of Sciences (United States of America)
|url= http://nationalacademies.org/onpi/06072005.pdf
|accessdate= 6 January 2014
|archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20130909022954/http://www.nationalacademies.org/onpi/06072005.pdf
|archive-date=9 September 2013
|url-status=dead
}}
*{{cite web |ref= {{harvid|G8+5 Academies|2009}}
|title= G8+5 Academies' joint statement: Climate change and the transformation of energy technologies for a low carbon future
|date= May 2009
|publisher = The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
|author1 = Academia Brasileira de Ciéncias (Brazil)
|author2 = Royal Society of Canada
|author3= Chinese Academy of Sciences
|author4= Académie des Sciences (France)
|author5= Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina (Germany)
|author6= Indian National Science Academy
|author7= Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy)
|author8= Science Council of Japan, Academia Mexicana de Ciencias
|author9= Russian Academy of Sciences
|author10= Academy of Science of South Africa
|author11= Royal Society (United Kingdom)
|author12= National Academy of Sciences (United States of America)
|url= http://www.nationalacademies.org/includes/G8+5energy-climate09.pdf
|archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20100215171429/http://www.nationalacademies.org/includes/G8+5energy-climate09.pdf
|archive-date= 15 February 2010
|url-status= live
|accessdate= 5 May 2010
}}
* {{Cite book |ref=harv
|title = Climate Change: Observed Impacts on Planet Earth
|last = Haywood |first=Jim
|year=2016 |year=2016
|title=Global Forest Resources Assessment 2015. How are the world's forests changing?
|publisher=Elsevier
|url=http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4793e.pdf#page=11
|isbn=9780444635242
|publisher=Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
|editor-last = Letcher |editor-first=Trevor M.
|isbn=978-92-5-109283-5
|page=456
|access-date=1 December 2019
|chapter=Chapter 27 - Atmospheric Aerosols and Their Role in Climate Change
}} }}
*{{Cite report |ref={{harvid|International Institute for Sustainable Development|2019}} * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|United Nations Environment Programme|2019}}
|publisher=United Nations Environment Programme
|url=https://www.iisd.org/sites/default/files/publications/fossil-fuel-clean-energy-subsidy-swap.pdf
|title=Fossil Fuel to Clean Energy Subsidy Swaps
|last1 = Bridle |first1=Richard
|last2 = Sharma |first2=Shruti
|last3 = Mostafa |first3=Mostafa
|last4 = Geddes |first4=Anna
|date=June 2019
|page=iv
}}
* {{cite book |ref=harv
|last1 = Meinshausen |first=Malte
|chapter = Implications of the Developed Scenarios for Climate Change
|date=2019
|work=Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals: Global and Regional 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios with Non-energy GHG Pathways for +1.5&nbsp;°C and +2&nbsp;°C
|title=Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals
|pages=459–469
|editor-last=Teske |editor-first=Sven
|publisher=Springer International Publishing
|doi=10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_12
|isbn=9783030058432
}}
* {{Cite book |ref=harv
|title = Copenhagen 2009: Failure or final wake-up call for our leaders? EV 49
|last = Müller |first = Benito
|date = February 2010
|publisher = ]|isbn = 978-1-907555-04-6
|page = i
|url = https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/EV49-Copenhagen2009Failureorfinalwake-upcallforourleaders-BenitoMuller-2010.pdf
|accessdate = 18 May 2010
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20170710081944/https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/EV49-Copenhagen2009Failureorfinalwake-upcallforourleaders-BenitoMuller-2010.pdf
|archive-date = 10 July 2017|url-status=live
}}
* {{Cite book |ref={{harvid|National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine|2019}}
|url = https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25259/negative-emissions-technologies-and-reliable-sequestration-a-research-agenda
|title = Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration: A Research Agenda
|publisher = National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
|year=2019 |year=2019
|title=Emissions Gap Report 2019
|isbn=978-0-309-48452-7
|url=https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/30797/EGR2019.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
|location=Washington, D.C.
|location=Nairobi
|pages=
|isbn=978-92-807-3766-0
|doi=10.17226/25259|pmid= 31120708|last1= National Academies Of Sciences|first1= Engineering}}
* {{Cite report | ref= harv
| author= National Research Council
| year= 2008
| title= Understanding and responding to climate change: Highlights of National Academies Reports, 2008 edition, produced by the US National Research Council (US NRC)
| publisher= National Academy of Sciences
| location= Washington, DC
| url= http://dels.nas.edu/Materials/Booklets/Lines-of-Evidence
| access-date= 14 January 2016
| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20160304052136/http://dels.nas.edu/Materials/Booklets/Lines-of-Evidence
| archive-date= 4 March 2016
| url-status= live
| df= dmy-all
}} }}
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|United Nations Environment Programme|2024}}
* {{Cite report | ref= harv
|publisher=United Nations Environment Programme
| author= National Research Council
| year= 2012 |year=2024
|title=Emissions Gap Report 2024
| title= Climate Change: Evidence, Impacts, and Choices
|url=https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2024
| url= http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/files/2012/06/19014_cvtx_R1.pdf
|location=Nairobi
| access-date= 9 September 2017
|isbn=978-92-807-4185-8
| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20130220184517/http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/files/2012/06/19014_cvtx_R1.pdf
| archive-date= 20 February 2013
| url-status= live
| df= dmy-all
}} }}
* {{cite book|author = UNEP |year= 2018|title=The Adaptation Gap Report 2018|location=Nairobi, Kenya|url =https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report|isbn=978-92-807-3728-8|publisher = United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)}}
* {{cite book |ref=harv
* {{cite conference
|last1 = Newell |first1=Peter
|year =1992
|title = Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse
|author=UNFCCC |author-link=UNFCCC
|journal = Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |volume=109 |pages=75–76 |date=14 December 2006
|title=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
|accessdate = 30 July 2018
|url=https://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.pdf
|publisher = Cambridge University Press
|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=ing21MGmh5UC
|isbn=978-0-521-02123-4
|bibcode=2001AgFM..109...75B
|doi=10.1016/S0168-1923(01)00246-5
}}
* {{Cite web |ref={{harvid|NOAA|2017}}
|author = NOAA
|url = https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf
|title =January 2017 analysis from NOAA: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States
|access-date=7 February 2019
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171218140625/https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf
|archive-date=18 December 2017 |url-status=live }}
* {{cite web |ref=harv
|title = Understanding and Responding to Climate Change
|author = NRC
|year = 2008
|publisher = Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, US National Academy of Sciences
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171011182257/http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/booklets/climate_change_2008_final.pdf
|archive-date=11 October 2017
|url-status=live
|url=http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/booklets/climate_change_2008_final.pdf
|accessdate=9 November 2010
}}
*{{cite book |ref=harv
|title = The Geopolitics of Renewable Energy
| date = 2017
|last1 = O'Sullivan |first1 = Meghan
|last2 = Overland | first2 = Indra
|last3 = Sandalow |first3 = David
| publisher = Center on Global Energy Policy
| place = New York
| type = working paper
| url = https://energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/CGEPTheGeopoliticsOfRenewables.pdf
}}
*{{cite book |ref=harv
| last1 = Olivier |first1 = J.G.J.
| last2 = Peters |first2 = J.A.H.W.
| year = 2019
| title = Trends in global {{CO2}} and total greenhouse gas emissions
| publisher = PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
| url = https://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/downloads/pbl-2020-trends-in-global-co2-and-total-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2019-report_4068.pdf
| place = The Hague
}}
* {{cite book |ref=harv
| chapter = The scientific consensus on climate change: How do we know we're not wrong?
| last1 = Oreskes |first1 = Naomi
| title = Climate Change: What It Means for Us, Our Children, and Our Grandchildren
| editor-last1 = DiMento |editor-first1=Joseph F. C.
| editor-last2 = Doughman |editor-first2=Pamela M.
| publisher=The MIT Press
| year=2007
| isbn=978-0-262-54193-0
}}
* {{cite book |ref=harv
|title = Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming
|date = 25 May 2010
|last1 = Oreskes |first1=Naomi
|author1-link=Naomi Oreskes
|first2 = Erik |last2=Conway
|publisher = Bloomsbury Press
|edition=first |isbn=978-1-59691-610-4
}}
* {{cite book |ref=harv
| date=13 April 2005
| author = Royal Society
| title=Economic Affairs – Written Evidence
| series=The Economics of Climate Change, the Second Report of the 2005–2006 session, produced by the UK Parliament House of Lords Economics Affairs Select Committee
| url=https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200506/ldselect/ldeconaf/12/12we24.htm
| publisher=UK Parliament
| accessdate=9 July 2011
| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111113084025/http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200506/ldselect/ldeconaf/12/12we24.htm
| archive-date=13 November 2011
| url-status=live
| df=dmy-all
}}
* {{cite book |ref = {{harvid|The Royal Society|2009}}
| date = September 2009
| first1 = John | last1 = Stepherd
| title = Geoengineering the climate: Science, governance and uncertainty
| url = https://royalsociety.org/-/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf
| publisher = The Royal Society
| place = London
| isbn = 978-0-85403-773-5}}
*{{Cite book |ref=harv
|title = Global trends in climate change litigation: 2019 snapshot
|last1 = Setzer |first1 = Joana
|last2 = Byrnes |first2 = Rebecca
|date = July 2019
|publisher=the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy
|url=http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/GRI_Global-trends-in-climate-change-litigation-2019-snapshot.pdf
|location=London}}
* {{Cite report |ref=harv
|author=UN FAO
|year= 2016
|title= Global Forest Resources Assessment 2015. How are the world’s forests changing?
|url= http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4793e.pdf#page=11
|publisher=Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
|isbn=978-92-5-109283-5
|access-date= 1 December 2019
}}
* {{Cite book |ref=harv
| author = United Nations Environment Programme
| year=2019
| title = Emissions Gap Report 2019
| url = https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/30797/EGR2019.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
| location = Nairobi
| isbn = 978-92-807-3766-0}}
* {{cite conference| ref=harv
|year = 1992
|author = UNFCCC |authorlink= UNFCCC
|title = United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
|url = https://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.pdf
}} }}
<!-- ## --> <!-- ## -->
* {{cite web |ref= {{harvid|Kyoto Protocol|1997}} * {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Kyoto Protocol|1997}}
|date = 1997 |date =1997
|author = UNFCCC |authorlink= UNFCCC |author=UNFCCC
|title = Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |title=Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
|publisher= United Nations |publisher=United Nations
|url = https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.html |url=https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.html
}} }}
<!-- ## --> <!-- ## -->
<!-- Example: Decision 2/CP.15 in {{harvnb|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009|loc= }} --> <!-- Example: Decision 2/CP.15 in {{harvnb|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009|loc=}} -->
<!-- Cite by paragraph, as page numbering is variable. --> <!-- Cite by paragraph, as page numbering is variable. -->
* {{cite conference |ref= {{harvid|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009}} * {{cite conference |ref={{harvid|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009}}
|date = 30 March 2010 |date =30 March 2010
|author = UNFCCC |authorlink= UNFCCC |author=UNFCCC
|chapter = Decision 2/CP.15: Copenhagen Accord |chapter=Decision 2/CP.15: Copenhagen Accord
|title = Report of the Conference of the Parties on its fifteenth session, held in Copenhagen from 7 to 19&nbsp;December&nbsp;2009 |title=Report of the Conference of the Parties on its fifteenth session, held in Copenhagen from 7 to 19&nbsp;December&nbsp;2009
|id = FCCC/CP/2009/11/Add.1 |id =FCCC/CP/2009/11/Add.1
|publisher= United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |publisher=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
|chapter-url = http://unfccc.int/documentation/documents/advanced_search/items/3594.php?rec=j&priref=600005735#beg |chapter-url=http://unfccc.int/documentation/documents/advanced_search/items/3594.php?rec=j&priref=600005735#beg
|accessdate = 17 May 2010 |access-date=17 May 2010
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20100430005322/https://unfccc.int/documentation/documents/advanced_search/items/3594.php?rec=j&priref=600005735#beg |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100430005322/https://unfccc.int/documentation/documents/advanced_search/items/3594.php?rec=j&priref=600005735#beg
|archive-date = 30 April 2010 |archive-date=30 April 2010
|url-status = live |url-status=live
|df = dmy-all
}} }}
<!-- ## --> <!-- ## -->
* {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Paris Agreement|2015}}
<!-- Example: Decision 1/CP.16 in {{harvnb|UNFCCC: Cancun|2010|loc= par. 4}} -->
|date =2015
<!-- Cite by paragraph, as page numbering is variable. -->
|author=UNFCCC
*{{Cite conference |ref= {{harvid|UNFCCC: Cancun|2010}}
|title=Paris Agreement
|date = 15 March 2011
|publisher=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
|author = UNFCCC |authorlink= UNFCCC
|url=https://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/convention/application/pdf/english_paris_agreement.pdf
|chapter = Decision 1/CP.16: The Cancun Agreements: Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention
|title = Report of the Conference of the Parties on its sixteenth session, held in Cancun from 29 November to 10 December 2010
|id = FCCC/CP/2010/7/Add.1
|publisher= United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
|chapter-url= https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf
}} }}
<!-- ## --> <!-- ## -->
* {{cite web |ref= {{harvid|Paris Agreement|2015}} * {{cite report |ref={{harvid|UN NDC Synthesis Report|2021}}
|date = 2015 | author = UNFCCC
| date = 26 February 2021
|author = UNFCCC |authorlink= UNFCCC
|title = Paris Agreement | title = Nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement Synthesis report by the secretariat
| url = https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2021_02E.pdf
|publisher= United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
| publisher = ]
|url = https://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/convention/application/pdf/english_paris_agreement.pdf
}} }}
<!-- ## --> <!-- ## -->
* {{cite web |ref={{harvid|UNHCR|2011}} * {{cite web |ref={{harvid|UNHCR|2011}}
|title=Climate Change and the Risk of Statelessness: The Situation of Low-lying Island States |title=Climate Change and the Risk of Statelessness: The Situation of Low-lying Island States
|last=Park |first=Susin |last=Park |first=Susin
|date=May 2011 |date=May 2011
|publisher=United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees |publisher=United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
|url=http://www.unhcr.org/4df9cb0c9.pdf |url=http://www.unhcr.org/4df9cb0c9.pdf
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130502223251/http://www.unhcr.org/4df9cb0c9.pdf |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130502223251/http://www.unhcr.org/4df9cb0c9.pdf
|archive-date=2 May 2013|url-status=live|accessdate=13 April 2012 |archive-date=2 May 2013|url-status=live|access-date=13 April 2012
}} }}
* {{cite report |ref=harv * {{cite report
|author = United States Environmental Protection Agency |author=United States Environmental Protection Agency
|year = 2016 |year=2016
|title = Methane and Black Carbon Impacts on the Arctic: Communicating the Science |title=Methane and Black Carbon Impacts on the Arctic: Communicating the Science
|url=https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-change-science/methane-and-black-carbon-impacts-arctic-communicating-science_.html |url=https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-change-science/methane-and-black-carbon-impacts-arctic-communicating-science_.html
|access-date=27 February 2019 |access-date=27 February 2019
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170906225344/https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-change-science/methane-and-black-carbon-impacts-arctic-communicating-science_.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170906225344/https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-change-science/methane-and-black-carbon-impacts-arctic-communicating-science_.html
|archive-date=6 September 2017 |url-status=live |archive-date=6 September 2017 |url-status=live
}} }}
* {{cite journal
*{{cite book |ref= {{harvid|U.S. Senate, Hearings|1988}}
|last1=Van Oldenborgh |first1=Geert-Jan
|author= ((U.S. Senate, Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, 100th Cong. 1st sess.))<!--parens to avoid CS1 maintenance category-->
|last2=Philip |first2=Sjoukje
|title= Greenhouse Effect and Global Climate Change: hearing before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, part 2
|last3=Kew |first3=Sarah
|date= 23 June 1988
|last4=Vautard |first4=Robert
|url= https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=uc1.b5127807
|display-authors=etal
|publisher= <!-- -->
|date=2019
}}
|website=Semantic Scholar
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|WMO|2019}}
|s2cid=199454488 |title=Human contribution to the record-breaking June 2019 heat wave in France
|author = ]
|title = WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2018
|url = https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=5789
|year = 2019
| location = Geneva
|series = WMO-No. 1233
| isbn = 978-92-63-11233-0
}}
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|WMO|2020}}
|author = World Meteorological Organization
|title = WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2019
|url = https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10211
|year = 2020
|location = Geneva
|series = WMO-No. 1248
|isbn = 978-92-63-11248-4

}}

{{refend}}
<!-- ................................... -->

===Non-technical sources===
{{refbegin}}
*'']''
** {{Cite news
|ref = {{harvid|ABC, 3 January|2007}}
|last = Sandell
|first = Clayton
|date = 3 January 2007
|title = Report: Big Money Confusing Public on Global Warming
|publisher = ABC
|url = https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Business/story?id=2767979&page=1
|accessdate = 27 April 2007
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20070219122415/http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Business/story?id=2767979&page=1
|archive-date = 19 February 2007
|url-status = dead
}}
*'']''
**{{citation |mode=cs1 |ref=harv <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
|last = Weart |first= Spencer |authorlink= Spencer R. Weart
|year = 2008<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, "year" is not well-defined. -->
|title = The Discovery of Global Warming
|chapter= The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect
|url = http://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm
|chapter-url = http://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm
|publisher= American Institute of Physics
|archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191800/http://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm
|archive-date= 11 November 2016
|url-status= live
|accessdate= 21 April 2009
}}
**{{citation |mode=cs1 |ref=harv <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
|last = Weart |first= Spencer R.
|date = February 2014a
|title = The Discovery of Global Warming
|chapter= The Public and Climate Change: Suspicions of a Human-Caused Greenhouse (1956–1969)
|url = http://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm
|chapter-url = http://history.aip.org/climate/public.htm
|publisher = American Institute of Physics
|accessdate= 12 May 2015
|archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191711/http://history.aip.org/climate/public.htm#S2
|archive-date= 11 November 2016
|url-status= live
}}
**{{citation |mode=cs1 |ref=harv <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
|last1 = Weart |first1 = S.
|date = February 2015
|title = The Discovery of Global warming
|chapter= The Public and Climate Change (cont.&nbsp;– since 1980)
|url = http://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm
|chapter-url = https://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm
|publisher = American Institute of Physics
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191659/http://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm#L_0446
|archive-date = 11 November 2016
|url-status = live
|accessdate=18 August 2015
}}
**{{citation |mode=cs1 |ref=harv <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
|first = Spencer R. |last= Weart
|date = February 2014b
|title = The Discovery of Global Warming
|chapter= The Public and Climate Change: The Summer of 1988
|url = http://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm
|chapter-url = http://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm
|publisher= American Institute of Physics
|accessdate= 12 May 2015
|archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191659/http://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm#L_0575
|archive-date= 11 November 2016
|url-status= live
}}
* '']''
**{{Cite web |ref = {{harvid|Associated Press, 22 September|2015}}
|url=https://www.apstylebook.com/blog_posts/4
|title=An addition to AP Stylebook entry on global warming
|last=Colford
|first=Paul
|date=22 September 2015
|website=www.apstylebook.com
|access-date=6 November 2019}}
*'']''
** {{cite news |ref= {{harvid|BBC, 22 February|2013}}
|date= 22 February 2013
|title= Siberian permafrost thaw warning sparked by cave data
|publisher= BBC
|accessdate=24 February 2013
|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21549643
|archive-url=https://www.webcitation.org/6EebP9y69?url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21549643
|archive-date=23 February 2013 |url-status=live
}}
** {{cite news |ref= {{harvid|BBC, 10 May|2013}}
|last = Amos |first = Jonathan
|date= 10 May 2013
|title= Carbon dioxide passes symbolic mark
|publisher= BBC
|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22486153
|accessdate= 27 May 2013
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130529053355/http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22486153
|archive-date=29 May 2013
|url-status=live
}}
** {{Cite web |ref= {{harvid|BBC, 17 December|2018}}
|last= Rodgers |first= Lucy
|date= 17 December 2018
|title= Climate change: The massive CO2 emitter you may not know about
|publisher= BBC
|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46455844
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181217144443/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46455844
|archive-date=17 December 2018
}}
** {{cite news |ref= {{harvid|BBC, 16 April|2019}}
|date= 16 April 2019
|title= Extinction Rebellion: Climate protesters block roads
|publisher= BBC
|url= https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-47935416
|accessdate=16 April 2019
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190416132334/https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-47935416
|archive-date=16 April 2019
|url-status=live
}}
** {{cite news |ref= {{harvid|BBC, 1 May|2019}}
|date = 1 May 2019
|title = UK Parliament declares climate change emergency
|publisher= BBC
|url = https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48126677
|accessdate = 30 June 2019
}}
** {{Cite web |ref= {{harvid|BBC, 24 August|2019}}
|date= 24 August 2019
|title= Climate change: Should you fly, drive or take the train?
|publisher= BBC
|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-49349566
}}
**{{Cite web |ref={{harvid|BBC Science Focus Magazine, 3 February|2020}}
|last = Rigby | first = Sara
| date = 3 February 2020
|title=Climate change: should we change the terminology?
|website=BBC Science Focus Magazine
|language=en
|url=https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/climate-change-should-we-change-the-terminology/
|access-date=2020-03-24}}
*'']''
** {{Cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018}}
|date = 15 January 2018
|last1 = McSweeney |first1 = Robert M.
|last2 = Hausfather |first2 = Zeke
|title= Q&A: How do climate models work?
|website= Carbon Brief
|url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work
|access-date=2 March 2019
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190305004530/https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work
|archive-date=5 March 2019
|url-status=live
}}
** {{Cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 19 April|2018}}
|date = 19 April 2018
|last1 = Hausfather |first1 = Zeke
|title = Explainer: How 'Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' explore future climate change
|website= Carbon Brief
|url = https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change
|access-date = 20 July 2019
}}
** {{Cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 31 January|2019}}
|date = 31 January 2019
|last1 = McSweeney |first1 = Robert M.
|title = Q&A: How is Arctic warming linked to the 'polar vortex' and other extreme weather?
|website= Carbon Brief
|url = https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-is-arctic-warming-linked-to-polar-vortext-other-extreme-weather
}}
** {{Cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 21 March|2019}}
|date=21 March 2019
|last=Belcher |first=Stephen
|last2=Boucher |first2=Olivier
|last3=Sutton |first3=Rowan
|title=Guest post: Why results from the next generation of climate models matter
|website=Carbon Brief
|url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-results-from-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-matter
|access-date=25 August 2019
}}
*''Center for Climate and Energy Solutions''
**{{Cite web
|ref = {{harvid|Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, 18 December|2019}}
|title = Reducing Your Transportation Footprint
|url = https://www.c2es.org/content/reducing-your-transportation-footprint/
|work = Center for Climate and Energy Solutions
|access-date = 18 December 2019
}} }}
* {{cite book
*''Climate Action Tracker''
|ref=none
**{{Cite web
|last=Weart
|ref = {{harvid|Climate Action Tracker, 11 December|2018}}
|first=Spencer
|title = The CAT Thermometer
|date = 11 December 2018 |date=October 2008
|title=The Discovery of Global Warming
|url = https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-thermometer/
|edition=2nd
|work = Climate Action Tracker
|location=Cambridge, MA
|access-date = 14 April 2019
|publisher=Harvard University Press
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20190414131223/https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-thermometer/
|isbn=978-0-674-03189-0
|archive-date = 14 April 2019
|url=http://history.aip.org/climate/reviews.htm
|url-status = live
|access-date=16 June 2020
}}
|url-status=live
*'']''
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161118000413/http://history.aip.org/climate/reviews.htm
**{{Cite news |ref= harv
|archive-date=18 November 2016}}
|last1= Montlake |first1= Simon
* {{cite book
|date= 5 August 2019
|ref=none
|title= What does climate change have to do with socialism
|last=Weart
|newspaper= The Christian Science Monitor
|first=Spencer
|issn= 0882-7729
|date=February 2019
|url= https://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2019/0805/What-does-climate-change-have-to-do-with-socialism
|title=The Discovery of Global Warming
|access-date= 16 August 2019
|edition=online
|url=http://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm
|access-date=19 June 2020
|url-status=live
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200618075616/http://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm
|archive-date=18 June 2020
|author-link=Spencer R. Weart}}
** {{citation|ref={{harvid|Weart "The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect"}} |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
|last =Weart |first=Spencer
|date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. -->
|title=The Discovery of Global Warming
|chapter=The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect
|chapter-url=http://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm
|access-date=19 June 2020
|publisher=American Institute of Physics
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191800/http://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm
|archive-date=11 November 2016
|url-status=live
}} }}
** {{citation|ref=none |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
*'']''
|last =Weart |first=Spencer
**{{cite news | ref={{harvid|Deutsche Welle, 22 June|2019}}
|date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. -->
|last1=Ruiz |first1=Irene Banos
|title=The Discovery of Global Warming
|title=Climate Action: Can We Change the Climate From the Grassroots Up?
|chapter=The Public and Climate Change
|url=https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-action-grassroots-2638915946.html
|chapter-url=http://history.aip.org/climate/public.htm
|accessdate=23 June 2019
|access-date=19 June 2020
|agency=Deutsche Welle
|publisher=Ecowatch |publisher =American Institute of Physics
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191711/http://history.aip.org/climate/public.htm
|date=22 June 2019
|archive-date=11 November 2016
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190623124154/https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-action-grassroots-2638915946.html
|archive-date=23 June 2019 |url-status=live }} |url-status=live
*'']''
** {{Cite news |ref={{harvid|The Economist, 9 February|2019}}
|date= 9 February 2019
|title= The truth about big oil and climate change
|work= The Economist
|issn= 0013-0613
|access-date= 19 May 2019
|url= https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/02/09/the-truth-about-big-oil-and-climate-change
}} }}
*** {{citation|ref={{harvid|Weart "Suspicions of a Human-Caused Greenhouse (1956–1969)"}} |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
** {{cite news | ref= {{harvid|The Economist, 7 February|2019}}
|last = <!--no byline--> |last =Weart |first=Spencer
|date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. -->
|date= 7 February 2019
|title=The Discovery of Global Warming
|title= A bold new plan to tackle climate change ignores economic orthodoxy
|chapter=The Public and Climate Change: Suspicions of a Human-Caused Greenhouse (1956–1969)
|newspaper= The Economist
|chapter-url=http://history.aip.org/climate/public.htm#S2
|location= London
|access-date=19 June 2020
|url= https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/02/07/a-bold-new-plan-to-tackle-climate-change-ignores-economic-orthodoxy
|publisher =American Institute of Physics
|access-date= 28 May 2019
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191711/http://history.aip.org/climate/public.htm#S2
}}
|archive-date=11 November 2016
*'']''
|url-status=live
**{{Cite web |ref={{harvid|EPA|2016}}
|title=Myths vs. Facts: Denial of Petitions for Reconsideration of the Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act
|publisher=U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
|date=25 August 2016
|url=https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/myths-vs-facts-denial-petitions-reconsideration-endangerment-and-cause-or-contribute
|access-date=7 August 2017}}
** {{Cite web |ref=harv
|url=https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data
|title=Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data
|author=US EPA
|date=13 September 2019
|access-date=1 March 2020
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200218125157/https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data
|archive-date=17 February 2020|url-status=live}}
*'']''
** {{Cite web | ref={{harvid|EUobserver, 20 December|2009}}
|date = 20 December 2009
|title=Copenhagen failure 'disappointing', 'shameful'
|website=euobserver.com
|access-date=12 April 2019
|url=https://euobserver.com/environment/29181
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190412092312/https://euobserver.com/environment/29181
|archive-date=12 April 2019
|url-status=live}}
*'']''
**{{Cite web | ref={{harvid|Euronews, 22 June|2019}}
|url=https://www.euronews.com/2019/06/21/thousands-of-protesters-occupy-german-coal-mine
|title=Thousands of protesters occupy German coal mine
|last=Cox |first=Sam
|date=22 June 2019
|website=www.euronews.com|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190713123919/https://www.euronews.com/2019/06/21/thousands-of-protesters-occupy-german-coal-mine
|archive-date=13 July 2019|url-status=live|access-date=13 July 2019}}
*'']''
** {{Cite web |ref={{harvid|Forbes, 3 February|2020}}
|url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/bhaktimirchandani/2020/02/03/a-1-trillion-opportunity-how-to-read-the-eu-green-deal-investment-plan/
|title=A €1 Trillion Opportunity: How To Read The EU Green Deal Investment Plan
|last=Mirchandani|first=Bhakti
|website=Forbes
|date = 3 February 2020
|access-date=2020-02-10
}} }}
** {{citation|ref={{harvid|Weart "The Public and Climate Change (since 1980)"}} |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
*'']''
|last1=Weart |first1=Spencer
** {{cite news |ref = {{harvid|Gallup, 22 April|2011}}
|date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. -->
|title=Worldwide, Blame for Climate Change Falls on Humans
|title=The Discovery of Global warming
|last=Ray |first=Julie
|chapter=The Public and Climate Change (cont.&nbsp;– since 1980)
|last2=Pugliese |first2=Anita
|chapter-url=https://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm
|date=22 April 2011
|access-date=19 June 2020
|work=Gallup.Com
|publisher =American Institute of Physics
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110504082326/http://www.gallup.com/poll/147242/Worldwide-Blame-Climate-Change-Falls-Humans.aspx
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191659/http://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm
|archive-date=4 May 2011|url-status=live|accessdate=3 May 2011
|archive-date=11 November 2016
|url=http://www.gallup.com/poll/147242/Worldwide-Blame-Climate-Change-Falls-Humans.aspx}}
|url-status=live
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|Gallup, 20 April|2011}}
|title=Fewer Americans, Europeans View Global Warming as a Threat
|last=Pugliese |first=Anita
|date=20 April 2011
|publisher=Gallup
|url=http://www.gallup.com/poll/147203/Fewer-Americans-Europeans-View-Global-Warming-Threat.aspx
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110424030516/http://www.gallup.com/poll/147203/Fewer-Americans-Europeans-View-Global-Warming-Threat.aspx|archive-date=24 April 2011
|url-status=live|accessdate=22 April 2011}}
*'']''<!--
|issn= 0261-3077 - not needed, nor location.
The parameters for harvid should match the first two parameters
used in harvnb for the short-cite in the text. -->
** {{Cite news |ref= {{harvid|The Guardian, 20 September|2006}}
|last= Adams |first= David
|date= 20 September 2006
|title= Royal Society tells Exxon: stop funding climate change denial
|newspaper= The Guardian
|url= https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2006/sep/20/oilandpetrol.business
|accessdate= 9 August 2007
|archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20140211153615/http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2006/sep/20/oilandpetrol.business
|archive-date= 11 February 2014
|url-status= live
}} }}
*** {{citation|ref={{harvid|Weart "The Public and Climate Change: The Summer of 1988"}} |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
** {{cite news |ref= {{harvid|The Guardian, 26 January|2015}}
|first=Spencer |last=Weart
|last1= Nuccitelli |first1= Dana
|date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. -->
|date= 26 January 2015
|title=The Discovery of Global Warming
|title= Climate change could impact the poor much more than previously thought
|chapter=The Public and Climate Change: The Summer of 1988
|newspaper= The Guardian
|chapter-url=http://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm#S1988
|url= https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/jan/26/climate-change-could-impact-poor-much-more-than-previously-thought
|access-date=19 June 2020
|archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20161228200446/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/jan/26/climate-change-could-impact-poor-much-more-than-previously-thought
|publisher=American Institute of Physics
|archive-date= 28 December 2016
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191659/http://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm#S1988
|url-status= live
|archive-date=11 November 2016
|url-status=live
}} }}
** {{cite news |ref= {{harvid|The Guardian, 12 December|2015}} * {{cite report|ref={{harvid|World Bank, June|2019}}
|title=State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2019
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|date= 12 December 2015
|date=June 2019
|title= Paris climate deal: key points at a glance
|publisher=World Bank
|newspaper= The Guardian
|location=Washington, D.C.
|url= https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/12/paris-climate-deal-key-points
|doi=10.1596/978-1-4648-1435-8
|access-date= 12 December 2015
|hdl=10986/29687
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}}
|hdl-access=free
** {{cite news |ref= {{harvid|The Guardian, 7 August|2018}}
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|date= 7 August 2018
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** {{Cite news |ref= {{harvid|The Guardian, 27 February|2019}}
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}}
** {{Cite news |ref= {{harvid|The Guardian, 19 March|2019}}
|last= Carrington |first= Damian
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|title= School climate strikes: 1.4 million people took part, say campaigners
|newspaper= The Guardian
|url= https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/19/school-climate-strikes-more-than-1-million-took-part-say-campaigners-greta-thunberg
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}}
** {{Cite news |ref= {{harvid|The Guardian, 2 May|2019}}
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|title= Microsoft joins group seeking to kill off historic climate change lawsuits
|newspaper= The Guardian
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** {{Cite news |ref= {{harvid|The Guardian, 17 May|2019}}
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|agency= Reuters
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|title= Scientists shocked by Arctic permafrost thawing 70 years sooner than predicted
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}}
**{{Cite news |ref= {{harvid|The Guardian, 4 July|2019}}
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|access-date= 5 July 2019
|url= https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/04/planting-billions-trees-best-tackle-climate-crisis-scientists-canopy-emissions
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}}
**{{cite news |ref={{harvid|The Guardian, 15 September|2019}}
|last= Milman |first= Oliver
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|last=Rankin |first=Jennifer
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|work=The Guardian
|access-date=28 November 2019
|issn=0261-3077}}Too risky
**{{cite news |ref={{harvid|The Guardian, 19 February|2020}}
|last= Watts |first= Jonathan
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}}
*'']''
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** {{Cite news |ref={{harvid|MSNBC, 12 January|2007}}
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* ''Mercator Institute''
** {{cite web |ref = {{harvid|Mercator Institute|2020}} * {{Cite report |ref={{harvid|WHO|2016}}
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| url= https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1061179/retrieve
** {{cite web
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* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|WHO|2018}}
*'']''
|publisher=World Health Organization
**{{cite web |ref= {{harvid|NASA, 5 December|2008}}
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}} }}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|NASA, 16 June|2011}} * {{cite report |ref={{harvid|WMO SAOD|2022}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 -->
|author=]
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|publisher=]
|last1= Riebeek |first1= H.
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|title=The Carbon Cycle: Feature Articles: Effects of Changing the Carbon Cycle
|series=GAW Report No. 278
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|year=2022
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|archive-date=6 February 2013
|url-status=live
}} }}
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|NASA, 28 May|2013}} ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|WMO SAOD Executive Summary|2022}}
|author=]
|year= 2013
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|chapter-url=https://csl.noaa.gov/assessments/ozone/2022/downloads/executivesummary.pdf
|publisher= NASA
|year=2022
|url=https://climate.nasa.gov/news/927/arctic-amplification
|chapter=Executive Summary
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180731054007/https://climate.nasa.gov/news/927/arctic-amplification/
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** {{Cite web |ref= harv * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|WMO|2024a}}
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|year=2024
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|isbn=978-92-63-11347-4
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}} }}
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|NASA, 20 August|2018}} * {{cite report |ref={{harvid|WMO|2024b}}
|publisher=]
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}} }}
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|publisher= NASA's Earth Observatory
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}}
*'']''
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** {{Cite news |ref={{harvid|National Review, 27 February|2014}}
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*'']''
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*'']''
** {{cite news |ref=harv
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|publisher = Nature
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}}
**{{cite journal |ref=harv
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*'']''
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|title = Paris Can't Be Another Copenhagen
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|accessdate = 26 May 2015
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}}
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}}
**{{cite report |ref= harv
|date= 5 November 2015
|author= Pew Research Center <!-- Left out per the publisher's recommended citation.
|last1= Stokes |first1= Bruce
|last2= Wike |first2= Richard
|last3= Carle |first3= Jill
-->
|title= Global Concern about Climate Change, Broad Support for Limiting Emissions
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}}
*'']''
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|Phys.org, 6 August|2018}}
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{{refend}}


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* '']''<!--
|issn=0261-3077 - not needed, nor location.
The parameters for harvid should match the first two parameters
used in harvnb for the short-cite in the text. -->
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** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|The Guardian, 28 November|2019}} |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/28/eu-parliament-declares-climate-emergency |title='Our house is on fire': EU parliament declares climate emergency |last=Rankin |first=Jennifer |date=28 November 2019 |work=The Guardian |access-date=28 November 2019 |issn=0261-3077}}
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** {{cite web |date=January 2016 |last1=Shaftel |first1=Holly |title=What's in a name? Weather, global warming and climate change |website=NASA Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/resources/global-warming |access-date=12 October 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180928145703/https://climate.nasa.gov/resources/global-warming/ |archive-date=28 September 2018 |url-status=dead}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|NASA, 7 July|2020}} |date=7 July 2020 |editor-last=Shaftel |editor-first=Holly |editor2-last=Jackson |editor2-first=Randal |editor3-last=Callery |editor3-first=Susan |editor4-last=Bailey |editor4-first=Daniel |title=Overview: Weather, Global Warming and Climate Change |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/resources/global-warming-vs-climate-change |access-date=14 July 2020 |website=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet}}
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** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|National Conference of State Legislators, 17 April|2020}} |date=17 April 2020 |title=State Renewable Portfolio Standards and Goals |website=National Conference of State Legislators |url=https://www.ncsl.org/research/energy/renewable-portfolio-standards.aspx |access-date=3 June 2020}}
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** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|NOAA, 10 July|2011}} |date=10 July 2011 |author=NOAA |url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/polar-opposites-arctic-and-antarctic |title=Polar Opposites: the Arctic and Antarctic |access-date=20 February 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190222152103/https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/polar-opposites-arctic-and-antarctic |archive-date=22 February 2019 |url-status=live}}
** {{cite web |first=Amara |last=Huddleston |title=Happy 200th birthday to Eunice Foote, hidden climate science pioneer |website=NOAA Climate.gov |date=17 July 2019 |url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/happy-200th-birthday-eunice-foote-hidden-climate-science-pioneer |access-date=8 October 2019}}
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** {{cite journal |date=15 January 2018 |last1=Ritchie |first1=Hannah |author1-link=Hannah Ritchie |last2=Roser |first2=Max |author2-link=Max Roser |title=Land Use |journal=Our World in Data |url=https://ourworldindata.org/land-use |access-date=1 December 2019}}
** {{cite web |date=18 September 2020 |ref={{harvid|Our World in Data, 18 September|2020}} |last1=Ritchie |first1=Hannah |title=Sector by sector: where do global greenhouse gas emissions come from? |website=Our World in Data |url=https://ourworldindata.org/ghg-emissions-by-sector |access-date=28 October 2020}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Our World in Data-Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?}} |date=2022 |last1=Roser |first1=Max |title=Why did renewables become so cheap so fast? |website=Our World in Data |url=https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth |access-date=4 April 2022}}
* '']''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Pew|2020}} |first1=Moira
|last1=Fagan |first2=Christine |last2=Huang |publisher=Pew Research Center |date=16 October 2020 |title=Many globally are as concerned about climate change as about the spread of infectious diseases |url=https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/16/many-globally-are-as-concerned-about-climate-change-as-about-the-spread-of-infectious-diseases/ |access-date=19 August 2021}}
* '']''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Politico, 11 December|2019}} |url=https://www.politico.eu/article/the-commissions-green-deal-plan-unveiled/ |title=Europe's Green Deal plan unveiled |last1=Tamma |first1=Paola |last2=Schaart |first2=Eline |date=11 December 2019 |website=Politico |access-date=29 December 2019 |last3=Gurzu |first3=Anca}}
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** {{cite AV media |ref={{harvid|RIVM|2016}} |date=11 October 2016 |title=Documentary Sea Blind |medium=Dutch Television |language=nl |url=http://www.rivm.nl/en/Documents_and_publications/Common_and_Present/Newsmessages/2016/Documentary_Sea_Blind_on_Dutch_Television |access-date=26 February 2019 |publisher=RIVM: Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180817055817/https://www.rivm.nl/en/Documents_and_publications/Common_and_Present/Newsmessages/2016/Documentary_Sea_Blind_on_Dutch_Television |archive-date=17 August 2018 |url-status=live}}
* '']''
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|Salon, 25 September|2019}} |first=Evelyn |last=Leopold |title=How leaders planned to avert climate catastrophe at the UN (while Trump hung out in the basement) |url=https://www.salon.com/2019/09/25/how-serious-people-planned-to-avert-climate-catastrophe-at-the-un-while-trump-hung-out-in-the-basement_partner/ |date=25 September 2019 |website=Salon |access-date=20 November 2019}}
* '']''
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|Gleick, 7 January|2017}} |last1=Gleick |first1=Peter |title=Statements on Climate Change from Major Scientific Academies, Societies, and Associations (January 2017 update) |date=7 January 2017 |access-date=2 April 2020 |url=https://scienceblogs.com/significantfigures/index.php/2017/01/07/statements-on-climate-change-from-major-scientific-academies-societies-and-associations-january-2017-update |work=ScienceBlogs}}
* '']''
** {{cite magazine |ref={{harvid|Scientific American, 29 April|2014}} |title=Indian Monsoons Are Becoming More Extreme |last=Ogburn |first=Stephanie Paige |date=29 April 2014 |url=https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/indian-monsoons-are-becoming-more-extreme/ |magazine=Scientific American |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180622193126/https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/indian-monsoons-are-becoming-more-extreme/ |archive-date=22 June 2018 |url-status=live}}
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** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Smithsonian, 26 June|2016}} |url=https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/studying-climate-past-essential-preparing-todays-rapidly-changing-climate-180959595/ |title=Studying the Climate of the Past Is Essential for Preparing for Today's Rapidly Changing Climate |last=Wing |first=Scott L. |website=Smithsonian |access-date=8 November 2019 |date=29 June 2016}}
* ''The Sustainability Consortium''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|The Sustainability Consortium, 13 September|2018}} |website=The Sustainability Consortium |date=13 September 2018 |url=https://www.sustainabilityconsortium.org/2018/09/one-fourth-of-global-forest-loss-permanent-deforestation-is-not-slowing-down/ |title=One-Fourth of Global Forest Loss Permanent: Deforestation Is Not Slowing Down |access-date=1 December 2019}}
* '']''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|UNFCCC, "What are United Nations Climate Change Conferences?"}} |title=What are United Nations Climate Change Conferences? |website=UNFCCC |access-date=12 May 2019 |url=https://unfccc.int/process/conferences/what-are-united-nations-climate-change-conferences |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190512084017/https://unfccc.int/process/conferences/what-are-united-nations-climate-change-conferences |archive-date=12 May 2019 |url-status=live}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|UNFCCC, "What is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?"}} |title=What is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change? |website=UNFCCC |url=https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-convention/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change}}
* '']''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Union of Concerned Scientists, 8 January|2017}} |date=8 January 2017 |title=Carbon Pricing 101 |website=Union of Concerned Scientists |url=https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/carbon-pricing-101 |access-date=15 May 2020}}
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** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|Vice, 2 May|2019}} |website=Vice |last1=Segalov |first1=Michael |title=The UK Has Declared a Climate Emergency: What Now? |url=https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/evyxyn/uk-climate-emergency-what-does-it-mean |access-date=30 June 2019 |date=2 May 2019}}
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** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|The Verge, 27 December|2019}} |title=2019 was the year of 'climate emergency' declarations |last=Calma |first=Justine |date=27 December 2019 |website=The Verge |url=https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/27/21038949/climate-change-2019-emergency-declaration |access-date=28 March 2020}}
* '']''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Vox, 20 September|2019}} |last1=Roberts |first1=D. |date=20 September 2019 |title=Getting to 100% renewables requires cheap energy storage. But how cheap? |website=Vox |url=https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/8/9/20767886/renewable-energy-storage-cost-electricity |access-date=28 May 2020}}
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** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|WHO, Nov|2023}} |date=3 November 2023 |title=We must fight one of the world's biggest health threats: climate change |website=World Health Organization |url=https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/we-must-fight-one-of-the-world-s-biggest-health-threats-climate-change |access-date=19 September 2024}}
* '']''
** {{cite journal |ref={{harvid|World Resources Institute, 8 August|2019}} |date=8 August 2019 |last1=Levin |first1=Kelly |title=How Effective Is Land At Removing Carbon Pollution? The IPCC Weighs In |website=World Resources institute |url=https://www.wri.org/blog/2019/08/how-effective-land-removing-carbon-pollution-ipcc-weighs |access-date=15 May 2020}}
** {{cite journal |ref={{harvid|World Resources Institute, 8 December|2019}} |date=8 December 2019 |first1=Frances |last1=Seymour |first2=David |last2=Gibbs |title=Forests in the IPCC Special Report on Land Use: 7 Things to Know |url=https://www.wri.org/blog/2019/08/forests-ipcc-special-report-land-use-7-things-know/ |website=World Resources Institute}}
* '']''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Yale Climate Connections, 2 November|2010}} |title=Yale Researcher Anthony Leiserowitz on Studying, Communicating with American Public |date=2 November 2010 |last=Peach |first=Sara |publisher=Yale Climate Connections |access-date=30 July 2018 |url=https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/11/communicating-with-american-public |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190207130823/https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/11/communicating-with-american-public/ |archive-date=7 February 2019 |url-status=live}}
{{refend}} {{refend}}


== External links == == External links ==
{{Spoken Misplaced Pages|date=30 October 2021|En-Climate_change-article.ogg}}
{{Sister project links|wikt=global warming|b=Climate Change|q=Global warming|commons=Category:Global warming|n=Category:Climate change|v=Global warming}}
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=== Research ===
* – Global change research
* &nbsp;– repository for reports
* – UK National Weather Service
* (EdGCM) – research-quality climate change simulator

=== Educational ===
*
*
* – NOAA
* – (]; 2013)

{{Global warming|state=expanded}}
{{Human impact on the environment}} {{Human impact on the environment}}
{{Earth}} {{Earth}}
{{Authority control}} {{Authority control|state=expanded}}


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Revision as of 17:32, 22 December 2024

Human-caused changes to climate on Earth This article is about the present-day human-induced rise in global temperatures. For natural historical climate trends, see Climate variability and change. "Global warming" redirects here. For other uses, see Climate change (disambiguation) and Global warming (disambiguation).

The global map shows sea temperature rises of 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius; land temperature rises of 1 to 2 degrees Celsius; and Arctic temperature rises of up to 4 degrees Celsius.
Changes in surface air temperature over the past 50 years. The Arctic has warmed the most, and temperatures on land have generally increased more than sea surface temperatures.
Earth's average surface air temperature has increased almost 1.5 °C (about 2.5 °F) since the Industrial Revolution. Natural forces cause some variability, but the 20-year average shows the progressive influence of human activity.

Present-day climate change includes both global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its wider effects on Earth's climate. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate. The current rise in global temperatures is driven by human activities, especially fossil fuel burning since the Industrial Revolution. Fossil fuel use, deforestation, and some agricultural and industrial practices release greenhouse gases. These gases absorb some of the heat that the Earth radiates after it warms from sunlight, warming the lower atmosphere. Carbon dioxide, the primary greenhouse gas driving global warming, has grown by about 50% and is at levels not seen for millions of years.

Climate change has an increasingly large impact on the environment. Deserts are expanding, while heat waves and wildfires are becoming more common. Amplified warming in the Arctic has contributed to thawing permafrost, retreat of glaciers and sea ice decline. Higher temperatures are also causing more intense storms, droughts, and other weather extremes. Rapid environmental change in mountains, coral reefs, and the Arctic is forcing many species to relocate or become extinct. Even if efforts to minimize future warming are successful, some effects will continue for centuries. These include ocean heating, ocean acidification and sea level rise.

Climate change threatens people with increased flooding, extreme heat, increased food and water scarcity, more disease, and economic loss. Human migration and conflict can also be a result. The World Health Organization calls climate change one of the biggest threats to global health in the 21st century. Societies and ecosystems will experience more severe risks without action to limit warming. Adapting to climate change through efforts like flood control measures or drought-resistant crops partially reduces climate change risks, although some limits to adaptation have already been reached. Poorer communities are responsible for a small share of global emissions, yet have the least ability to adapt and are most vulnerable to climate change.

Bobcat Fire in Monrovia, CA, September 10, 2020Bleached colony of Acropora coralA dry lakebed in California, which is experiencing its worst megadrought in 1,200 years.Examples of some effects of climate change: Wildfire intensified by heat and drought, bleaching of corals occurring more often due to marine heatwaves, and worsening droughts compromising water supplies.

Many climate change impacts have been observed in the first decades of the 21st century, with 2023 the warmest on record at +1.48 °C (2.66 °F) since regular tracking began in 1850. Additional warming will increase these impacts and can trigger tipping points, such as melting all of the Greenland ice sheet. Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations collectively agreed to keep warming "well under 2 °C". However, with pledges made under the Agreement, global warming would still reach about 2.8 °C (5.0 °F) by the end of the century. Limiting warming to 1.5 °C would require halving emissions by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Fossil fuel use can be phased out by conserving energy and switching to energy sources that do not produce significant carbon pollution. These energy sources include wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power. Cleanly generated electricity can replace fossil fuels for powering transportation, heating buildings, and running industrial processes. Carbon can also be removed from the atmosphere, for instance by increasing forest cover and farming with methods that capture carbon in soil.

Terminology

Before the 1980s it was unclear whether the warming effect of increased greenhouse gases was stronger than the cooling effect of airborne particulates in air pollution. Scientists used the term inadvertent climate modification to refer to human impacts on the climate at this time. In the 1980s, the terms global warming and climate change became more common, often being used interchangeably. Scientifically, global warming refers only to increased surface warming, while climate change describes both global warming and its effects on Earth's climate system, such as precipitation changes.

Climate change can also be used more broadly to include changes to the climate that have happened throughout Earth's history. Global warming—used as early as 1975—became the more popular term after NASA climate scientist James Hansen used it in his 1988 testimony in the U.S. Senate. Since the 2000s, climate change has increased usage. Various scientists, politicians and media may use the terms climate crisis or climate emergency to talk about climate change, and may use the term global heating instead of global warming.

Global temperature rise

Further information: Global surface temperature

Temperatures prior to present-day global warming

Main articles: Climate variability and change; Temperature record of the last 2,000 years; and Paleoclimatology
Global surface temperature reconstruction over the last 2000 years using proxy data from tree rings, corals, and ice cores in blue. Directly observed data is in red.

Over the last few million years the climate cycled through ice ages. One of the hotter periods was the Last Interglacial, around 125,000 years ago, where temperatures were between 0.5 °C and 1.5 °C warmer than before the start of global warming. This period saw sea levels 5 to 10 metres higher than today. The most recent glacial maximum 20,000 years ago was some 5–7 °C colder. This period has sea levels that were over 125 metres (410 ft) lower than today.

Temperatures stabilized in the current interglacial period beginning 11,700 years ago. This period also saw the start of agriculture. Historical patterns of warming and cooling, like the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, did not occur at the same time across different regions. Temperatures may have reached as high as those of the late 20th century in a limited set of regions. Climate information for that period comes from climate proxies, such as trees and ice cores.

Warming since the Industrial Revolution

In recent decades, new high temperature records have substantially outpaced new low temperature records on a growing portion of Earth's surface.
There has been an increase in ocean heat content during recent decades as the oceans absorb over 90% of the heat from global warming.

Around 1850 thermometer records began to provide global coverage. Between the 18th century and 1970 there was little net warming, as the warming impact of greenhouse gas emissions was offset by cooling from sulfur dioxide emissions. Sulfur dioxide causes acid rain, but it also produces sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, which reflect sunlight and cause global dimming. After 1970, the increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases and controls on sulfur pollution led to a marked increase in temperature.

NASA animation portraying global surface temperature changes from 1880 to 2023. The colour blue denotes cooler temperatures and red denotes warmer temperatures.

Ongoing changes in climate have had no precedent for several thousand years. Multiple independent datasets all show worldwide increases in surface temperature, at a rate of around 0.2 °C per decade. The 2014–2023 decade warmed to an average 1.19 °C compared to the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900). Not every single year was warmer than the last: internal climate variability processes can make any year 0.2 °C warmer or colder than the average. From 1998 to 2013, negative phases of two such processes, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) caused a short slower period of warming called the "global warming hiatus". After the "hiatus", the opposite occurred, with years like 2023 exhibiting temperatures well above even the recent average. This is why the temperature change is defined in terms of a 20-year average, which reduces the noise of hot and cold years and decadal climate patterns, and detects the long-term signal.

A wide range of other observations reinforce the evidence of warming. The upper atmosphere is cooling, because greenhouse gases are trapping heat near the Earth's surface, and so less heat is radiating into space. Warming reduces average snow cover and forces the retreat of glaciers. At the same time, warming also causes greater evaporation from the oceans, leading to more atmospheric humidity, more and heavier precipitation. Plants are flowering earlier in spring, and thousands of animal species have been permanently moving to cooler areas.

Differences by region

Different regions of the world warm at different rates. The pattern is independent of where greenhouse gases are emitted, because the gases persist long enough to diffuse across the planet. Since the pre-industrial period, the average surface temperature over land regions has increased almost twice as fast as the global average surface temperature. This is because oceans lose more heat by evaporation and oceans can store a lot of heat. The thermal energy in the global climate system has grown with only brief pauses since at least 1970, and over 90% of this extra energy has been stored in the ocean. The rest has heated the atmosphere, melted ice, and warmed the continents.

The Northern Hemisphere and the North Pole have warmed much faster than the South Pole and Southern Hemisphere. The Northern Hemisphere not only has much more land, but also more seasonal snow cover and sea ice. As these surfaces flip from reflecting a lot of light to being dark after the ice has melted, they start absorbing more heat. Local black carbon deposits on snow and ice also contribute to Arctic warming. Arctic surface temperatures are increasing between three and four times faster than in the rest of the world. Melting of ice sheets near the poles weakens both the Atlantic and the Antarctic limb of thermohaline circulation, which further changes the distribution of heat and precipitation around the globe.

Future global temperatures

CMIP6 multi-model projections of global surface temperature changes for the year 2090 relative to the 1850–1900 average. The current trajectory for warming by the end of the century is roughly halfway between these two extremes.

The World Meteorological Organization estimates there is an 80% chance that global temperatures will exceed 1.5 °C warming for at least one year between 2024 and 2028. The chance of the 5-year average being above 1.5 °C is almost half.

The IPCC expects the 20-year average global temperature to exceed +1.5 °C in the early 2030s. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021) included projections that by 2100 global warming is very likely to reach 1.0–1.8 °C under a scenario with very low emissions of greenhouse gases, 2.1–3.5 °C under an intermediate emissions scenario, or 3.3–5.7 °C under a very high emissions scenario. The warming will continue past 2100 in the intermediate and high emission scenarios, with future projections of global surface temperatures by year 2300 being similar to millions of years ago.

The remaining carbon budget for staying beneath certain temperature increases is determined by modelling the carbon cycle and climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases. According to UNEP, global warming can be kept below 1.5 °C with a 50% chance if emissions after 2023 do not exceed 200 gigatonnes of CO2. This corresponds to around 4 years of current emissions. To stay under 2.0 °C, the carbon budget is 900 gigatonnes of CO2, or 16 years of current emissions.

Causes of recent global temperature rise

Main article: Causes of climate change
Physical drivers of global warming that has happened so far. Future global warming potential for long lived drivers like carbon dioxide emissions is not represented. Whiskers on each bar show the possible error range.

The climate system experiences various cycles on its own which can last for years, decades or even centuries. For example, El Niño events cause short-term spikes in surface temperature while La Niña events cause short term cooling. Their relative frequency can affect global temperature trends on a decadal timescale. Other changes are caused by an imbalance of energy from external forcings. Examples of these include changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in the Earth's orbit around the Sun.

To determine the human contribution to climate change, unique "fingerprints" for all potential causes are developed and compared with both observed patterns and known internal climate variability. For example, solar forcing—whose fingerprint involves warming the entire atmosphere—is ruled out because only the lower atmosphere has warmed. Atmospheric aerosols produce a smaller, cooling effect. Other drivers, such as changes in albedo, are less impactful.

Greenhouse gases

Main articles: Greenhouse gas, Greenhouse gas emissions, Greenhouse effect, and Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere
CO2 concentrations over the last 800,000 years as measured from ice cores (blue/green) and directly (black)

Greenhouse gases are transparent to sunlight, and thus allow it to pass through the atmosphere to heat the Earth's surface. The Earth radiates it as heat, and greenhouse gases absorb a portion of it. This absorption slows the rate at which heat escapes into space, trapping heat near the Earth's surface and warming it over time.

While water vapour (≈50%) and clouds (≈25%) are the biggest contributors to the greenhouse effect, they primarily change as a function of temperature and are therefore mostly considered to be feedbacks that change climate sensitivity. On the other hand, concentrations of gases such as CO2 (≈20%), tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide are added or removed independently from temperature, and are therefore considered to be external forcings that change global temperatures.

Before the Industrial Revolution, naturally-occurring amounts of greenhouse gases caused the air near the surface to be about 33 °C warmer than it would have been in their absence. Human activity since the Industrial Revolution, mainly extracting and burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In 2022, the concentrations of CO2 and methane had increased by about 50% and 164%, respectively, since 1750. These CO2 levels are higher than they have been at any time during the last 14 million years. Concentrations of methane are far higher than they were over the last 800,000 years.

The Global Carbon Project shows how additions to CO2 since 1880 have been caused by different sources ramping up one after another.

Global human-caused greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 were equivalent to 59 billion tonnes of CO2. Of these emissions, 75% was CO2, 18% was methane, 4% was nitrous oxide, and 2% was fluorinated gases. CO2 emissions primarily come from burning fossil fuels to provide energy for transport, manufacturing, heating, and electricity. Additional CO2 emissions come from deforestation and industrial processes, which include the CO2 released by the chemical reactions for making cement, steel, aluminum, and fertilizer. Methane emissions come from livestock, manure, rice cultivation, landfills, wastewater, and coal mining, as well as oil and gas extraction. Nitrous oxide emissions largely come from the microbial decomposition of fertilizer.

While methane only lasts in the atmosphere for an average of 12 years, CO2 lasts much longer. The Earth's surface absorbs CO2 as part of the carbon cycle. While plants on land and in the ocean absorb most excess emissions of CO2 every year, that CO2 is returned to the atmosphere when biological matter is digested, burns, or decays. Land-surface carbon sink processes, such as carbon fixation in the soil and photosynthesis, remove about 29% of annual global CO2 emissions. The ocean has absorbed 20 to 30% of emitted CO2 over the last two decades. CO2 is only removed from the atmosphere for the long term when it is stored in the Earth's crust, which is a process that can take millions of years to complete.

Land surface changes

The rate of global tree cover loss has approximately doubled since 2001, to an annual loss approaching an area the size of Italy.

Around 30% of Earth's land area is largely unusable for humans (glaciers, deserts, etc.), 26% is forests, 10% is shrubland and 34% is agricultural land. Deforestation is the main land use change contributor to global warming, as the destroyed trees release CO2, and are not replaced by new trees, removing that carbon sink. Between 2001 and 2018, 27% of deforestation was from permanent clearing to enable agricultural expansion for crops and livestock. Another 24% has been lost to temporary clearing under the shifting cultivation agricultural systems. 26% was due to logging for wood and derived products, and wildfires have accounted for the remaining 23%. Some forests have not been fully cleared, but were already degraded by these impacts. Restoring these forests also recovers their potential as a carbon sink.

Local vegetation cover impacts how much of the sunlight gets reflected back into space (albedo), and how much heat is lost by evaporation. For instance, the change from a dark forest to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to reflect more sunlight. Deforestation can also modify the release of chemical compounds that influence clouds, and by changing wind patterns. In tropic and temperate areas the net effect is to produce significant warming, and forest restoration can make local temperatures cooler. At latitudes closer to the poles, there is a cooling effect as forest is replaced by snow-covered (and more reflective) plains. Globally, these increases in surface albedo have been the dominant direct influence on temperature from land use change. Thus, land use change to date is estimated to have a slight cooling effect.

Other factors

Aerosols and clouds

Air pollution, in the form of aerosols, affects the climate on a large scale. Aerosols scatter and absorb solar radiation. From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface was observed. This phenomenon is popularly known as global dimming, and is primarily attributed to sulfate aerosols produced by the combustion of fossil fuels with heavy sulfur concentrations like coal and bunker fuel. Smaller contributions come from black carbon (from combustion of fossil fuels and biomass), and from dust. Globally, aerosols have been declining since 1990 due to pollution controls, meaning that they no longer mask greenhouse gas warming as much.

Aerosols also have indirect effects on the Earth's energy budget. Sulfate aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets. They also reduce the growth of raindrops, which makes clouds more reflective to incoming sunlight. Indirect effects of aerosols are the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.

While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, black carbon in soot that falls on snow or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea-level rise. Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2 °C by 2050. The effect of decreasing sulfur content of fuel oil for ships since 2020 is estimated to cause an additional 0.05 °C increase in global mean temperature by 2050.

Solar and volcanic activity

Further information: Solar activity and climate
The Fourth National Climate Assessment ("NCA4", USGCRP, 2017) includes charts illustrating that neither solar nor volcanic activity can explain the observed warming.

As the Sun is the Earth's primary energy source, changes in incoming sunlight directly affect the climate system. Solar irradiance has been measured directly by satellites, and indirect measurements are available from the early 1600s onwards. Since 1880, there has been no upward trend in the amount of the Sun's energy reaching the Earth, in contrast to the warming of the lower atmosphere (the troposphere). The upper atmosphere (the stratosphere) would also be warming if the Sun was sending more energy to Earth, but instead, it has been cooling. This is consistent with greenhouse gases preventing heat from leaving the Earth's atmosphere.

Explosive volcanic eruptions can release gases, dust and ash that partially block sunlight and reduce temperatures, or they can send water vapour into the atmosphere, which adds to greenhouse gases and increases temperatures. These impacts on temperature only last for several years, because both water vapour and volcanic material have low persistence in the atmosphere. volcanic CO2 emissions are more persistent, but they are equivalent to less than 1% of current human-caused CO2 emissions. Volcanic activity still represents the single largest natural impact (forcing) on temperature in the industrial era. Yet, like the other natural forcings, it has had negligible impacts on global temperature trends since the Industrial Revolution.

Climate change feedbacks

Main articles: Climate change feedbacks and Climate sensitivity
Sea ice reflects 50% to 70% of incoming sunlight, while the ocean, being darker, reflects only 6%. As an area of sea ice melts and exposes more ocean, more heat is absorbed by the ocean, raising temperatures that melt still more ice. This is a positive feedback process.

The climate system's response to an initial forcing is shaped by feedbacks, which either amplify or dampen the change. Self-reinforcing or positive feedbacks increase the response, while balancing or negative feedbacks reduce it. The main reinforcing feedbacks are the water-vapour feedback, the ice–albedo feedback, and the net effect of clouds. The primary balancing mechanism is radiative cooling, as Earth's surface gives off more heat to space in response to rising temperature. In addition to temperature feedbacks, there are feedbacks in the carbon cycle, such as the fertilizing effect of CO2 on plant growth. Feedbacks are expected to trend in a positive direction as greenhouse gas emissions continue, raising climate sensitivity.

These feedback processes alter the pace of global warming. For instance, warmer air can hold more moisture in the form of water vapour, which is itself a potent greenhouse gas. Warmer air can also make clouds higher and thinner, and therefore more insulating, increasing climate warming. The reduction of snow cover and sea ice in the Arctic is another major feedback, this reduces the reflectivity of the Earth's surface in the region and accelerates Arctic warming. This additional warming also contributes to permafrost thawing, which releases methane and CO2 into the atmosphere.

Around half of human-caused CO2 emissions have been absorbed by land plants and by the oceans. This fraction is not static and if future CO2 emissions decrease, the Earth will be able to absorb up to around 70%. If they increase substantially, it'll still absorb more carbon than now, but the overall fraction will decrease to below 40%. This is because climate change increases droughts and heat waves that eventually inhibit plant growth on land, and soils will release more carbon from dead plants when they are warmer. The rate at which oceans absorb atmospheric carbon will be lowered as they become more acidic and experience changes in thermohaline circulation and phytoplankton distribution. Uncertainty over feedbacks, particularly cloud cover, is the major reason why different climate models project different magnitudes of warming for a given amount of emissions.

Modelling

Further information: Climate model and Climate change scenario
Energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and Earth's surface. Most sunlight passes through the atmosphere to heat the Earth's surface, then greenhouse gases absorb most of the heat the Earth radiates in response. Adding to greenhouse gases increases this insulating effect, causing an energy imbalance that heats the planet up.

A climate model is a representation of the physical, chemical and biological processes that affect the climate system. Models include natural processes like changes in the Earth's orbit, historical changes in the Sun's activity, and volcanic forcing. Models are used to estimate the degree of warming future emissions will cause when accounting for the strength of climate feedbacks. Models also predict the circulation of the oceans, the annual cycle of the seasons, and the flows of carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere.

The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past climates. Past models have underestimated the rate of Arctic shrinkage and underestimated the rate of precipitation increase. Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but more recent models agree well with observations. The 2017 United States-published National Climate Assessment notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes". Additionally, climate models may be unable to adequately predict short-term regional climatic shifts.

A subset of climate models add societal factors to a physical climate model. These models simulate how population, economic growth, and energy use affect—and interact with—the physical climate. With this information, these models can produce scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions. This is then used as input for physical climate models and carbon cycle models to predict how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change. Depending on the socioeconomic scenario and the mitigation scenario, models produce atmospheric CO2 concentrations that range widely between 380 and 1400 ppm.

Impacts

Main article: Effects of climate change
The sixth IPCC Assessment Report projects changes in average soil moisture at 2.0 °C of warming, as measured in standard deviations from the 1850 to 1900 baseline.

Environmental effects

Further information: Effects of climate change on oceans and Effects of climate change on the water cycle

The environmental effects of climate change are broad and far-reaching, affecting oceans, ice, and weather. Changes may occur gradually or rapidly. Evidence for these effects comes from studying climate change in the past, from modelling, and from modern observations. Since the 1950s, droughts and heat waves have appeared simultaneously with increasing frequency. Extremely wet or dry events within the monsoon period have increased in India and East Asia. Monsoonal precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere has increased since 1980. The rainfall rate and intensity of hurricanes and typhoons is likely increasing, and the geographic range likely expanding poleward in response to climate warming. Frequency of tropical cyclones has not increased as a result of climate change.

Historical sea level reconstruction and projections up to 2100 published in 2017 by the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Global sea level is rising as a consequence of thermal expansion and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets. Sea level rise has increased over time, reaching 4.8 cm per decade between 2014 and 2023. Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects 32–62 cm of sea level rise under a low emission scenario, 44–76 cm under an intermediate one and 65–101 cm under a very high emission scenario. Marine ice sheet instability processes in Antarctica may add substantially to these values, including the possibility of a 2-meter sea level rise by 2100 under high emissions.

Climate change has led to decades of shrinking and thinning of the Arctic sea ice. While ice-free summers are expected to be rare at 1.5 °C degrees of warming, they are set to occur once every three to ten years at a warming level of 2 °C. Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations cause more CO2 to dissolve in the oceans, which is making them more acidic. Because oxygen is less soluble in warmer water, its concentrations in the ocean are decreasing, and dead zones are expanding.

Tipping points and long-term impacts

Different levels of global warming may cause different parts of Earth's climate system to reach tipping points that cause transitions to different states.
Main article: Tipping points in the climate system

Greater degrees of global warming increase the risk of passing through 'tipping points'—thresholds beyond which certain major impacts can no longer be avoided even if temperatures return to their previous state. For instance, the Greenland ice sheet is already melting, but if global warming reaches levels between 1.7 °C and 2.3 °C, its melting will continue until it fully disappears. If the warming is later reduced to 1.5 °C or less, it will still lose a lot more ice than if the warming was never allowed to reach the threshold in the first place. While the ice sheets would melt over millennia, other tipping points would occur faster and give societies less time to respond. The collapse of major ocean currents like the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and irreversible damage to key ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest and coral reefs can unfold in a matter of decades.

The long-term effects of climate change on oceans include further ice melt, ocean warming, sea level rise, ocean acidification and ocean deoxygenation. The timescale of long-term impacts are centuries to millennia due to CO2's long atmospheric lifetime. The result is an estimated total sea level rise of 2.3 metres per degree Celsius (4.2 ft/°F) after 2000 years. Oceanic CO2 uptake is slow enough that ocean acidification will also continue for hundreds to thousands of years. Deep oceans (below 2,000 metres (6,600 ft)) are also already committed to losing over 10% of their dissolved oxygen by the warming which occurred to date. Further, the West Antarctic ice sheet appears committed to practically irreversible melting, which would increase the sea levels by at least 3.3 m (10 ft 10 in) over approximately 2000 years.

Nature and wildlife

Further information: Effects of climate change on oceans and Effects of climate change on biomes

Recent warming has driven many terrestrial and freshwater species poleward and towards higher altitudes. For instance, the range of hundreds of North American birds has shifted northward at an average rate of 1.5 km/year over the past 55 years. Higher atmospheric CO2 levels and an extended growing season have resulted in global greening. However, heatwaves and drought have reduced ecosystem productivity in some regions. The future balance of these opposing effects is unclear. A related phenomenon driven by climate change is woody plant encroachment, affecting up to 500 million hectares globally. Climate change has contributed to the expansion of drier climate zones, such as the expansion of deserts in the subtropics. The size and speed of global warming is making abrupt changes in ecosystems more likely. Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species.

The oceans have heated more slowly than the land, but plants and animals in the ocean have migrated towards the colder poles faster than species on land. Just as on land, heat waves in the ocean occur more frequently due to climate change, harming a wide range of organisms such as corals, kelp, and seabirds. Ocean acidification makes it harder for marine calcifying organisms such as mussels, barnacles and corals to produce shells and skeletons; and heatwaves have bleached coral reefs. Harmful algal blooms enhanced by climate change and eutrophication lower oxygen levels, disrupt food webs and cause great loss of marine life. Coastal ecosystems are under particular stress. Almost half of global wetlands have disappeared due to climate change and other human impacts. Plants have come under increased stress from damage by insects.

Climate change impacts on the environment

Humans

Main article: Effects of climate change
Extreme weather will be progressively more common as the Earth warms.

The effects of climate change are impacting humans everywhere in the world. Impacts can be observed on all continents and ocean regions, with low-latitude, less developed areas facing the greatest risk. Continued warming has potentially "severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts" for people and ecosystems. The risks are unevenly distributed, but are generally greater for disadvantaged people in developing and developed countries.

Health and food

Main articles: Effects of climate change on agriculture § Global food security and undernutrition, and Effects of climate change on human health

The World Health Organization calls climate change one of the biggest threats to global health in the 21st century. Scientists have warned about the irreversible harms it poses. Extreme weather events affect public health, and food and water security. Temperature extremes lead to increased illness and death. Climate change increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. It can affect transmission of infectious diseases, such as dengue fever and malaria. According to the World Economic Forum, 14.5 million more deaths are expected due to climate change by 2050. 30% of the global population currently live in areas where extreme heat and humidity are already associated with excess deaths. By 2100, 50% to 75% of the global population would live in such areas.

While total crop yields have been increasing in the past 50 years due to agricultural improvements, climate change has already decreased the rate of yield growth. Fisheries have been negatively affected in multiple regions. While agricultural productivity has been positively affected in some high latitude areas, mid- and low-latitude areas have been negatively affected. According to the World Economic Forum, an increase in drought in certain regions could cause 3.2 million deaths from malnutrition by 2050 and stunting in children. With 2 °C warming, global livestock headcounts could decline by 7–10% by 2050, as less animal feed will be available. If the emissions continue to increase for the rest of century, then over 9 million climate-related deaths would occur annually by 2100.

Livelihoods and inequality

Further information: Economic analysis of climate change and Climate security

Economic damages due to climate change may be severe and there is a chance of disastrous consequences. Severe impacts are expected in South-East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, where most of the local inhabitants are dependent upon natural and agricultural resources. Heat stress can prevent outdoor labourers from working. If warming reaches 4 °C then labour capacity in those regions could be reduced by 30 to 50%. The World Bank estimates that between 2016 and 2030, climate change could drive over 120 million people into extreme poverty without adaptation.

Inequalities based on wealth and social status have worsened due to climate change. Major difficulties in mitigating, adapting to, and recovering from climate shocks are faced by marginalized people who have less control over resources. Indigenous people, who are subsistent on their land and ecosystems, will face endangerment to their wellness and lifestyles due to climate change. An expert elicitation concluded that the role of climate change in armed conflict has been small compared to factors such as socio-economic inequality and state capabilities.

While women are not inherently more at risk from climate change and shocks, limits on women's resources and discriminatory gender norms constrain their adaptive capacity and resilience. For example, women's work burdens, including hours worked in agriculture, tend to decline less than men's during climate shocks such as heat stress.

Climate migration

Main article: Climate migration

Low-lying islands and coastal communities are threatened by sea level rise, which makes urban flooding more common. Sometimes, land is permanently lost to the sea. This could lead to statelessness for people in island nations, such as the Maldives and Tuvalu. In some regions, the rise in temperature and humidity may be too severe for humans to adapt to. With worst-case climate change, models project that almost one-third of humanity might live in Sahara-like uninhabitable and extremely hot climates.

These factors can drive climate or environmental migration, within and between countries. More people are expected to be displaced because of sea level rise, extreme weather and conflict from increased competition over natural resources. Climate change may also increase vulnerability, leading to "trapped populations" who are not able to move due to a lack of resources.

Climate change impacts on people

Reducing and recapturing emissions

Further information: Climate change mitigation
Global greenhouse gas emission scenarios, based on policies and pledges as of November 2021

Climate change can be mitigated by reducing the rate at which greenhouse gases are emitted into the atmosphere, and by increasing the rate at which carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere. To limit global warming to less than 1.5 °C global greenhouse gas emissions needs to be net-zero by 2050, or by 2070 with a 2 °C target. This requires far-reaching, systemic changes on an unprecedented scale in energy, land, cities, transport, buildings, and industry.

The United Nations Environment Programme estimates that countries need to triple their pledges under the Paris Agreement within the next decade to limit global warming to 2 °C. An even greater level of reduction is required to meet the 1.5 °C goal. With pledges made under the Paris Agreement as of 2024, there would be a 66% chance that global warming is kept under 2.8 °C by the end of the century (range: 1.9–3.7 °C, depending on exact implementation and technological progress). When only considering current policies, this raises to 3.1 °C. Globally, limiting warming to 2 °C may result in higher economic benefits than economic costs.

Although there is no single pathway to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C, most scenarios and strategies see a major increase in the use of renewable energy in combination with increased energy efficiency measures to generate the needed greenhouse gas reductions. To reduce pressures on ecosystems and enhance their carbon sequestration capabilities, changes would also be necessary in agriculture and forestry, such as preventing deforestation and restoring natural ecosystems by reforestation.

Other approaches to mitigating climate change have a higher level of risk. Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C typically project the large-scale use of carbon dioxide removal methods over the 21st century. There are concerns, though, about over-reliance on these technologies, and environmental impacts. Solar radiation modification (SRM) is under discussion as a possible supplement to reductions in emissions. However, SRM raises significant ethical and global governance concerns, and its risks are not well understood.

Clean energy

Main articles: Sustainable energy and Sustainable transport
Coal, oil, and natural gas remain the primary global energy sources even as renewables have begun rapidly increasing.
Wind and solar power, Germany

Renewable energy is key to limiting climate change. For decades, fossil fuels have accounted for roughly 80% of the world's energy use. The remaining share has been split between nuclear power and renewables (including hydropower, bioenergy, wind and solar power and geothermal energy). Fossil fuel use is expected to peak in absolute terms prior to 2030 and then to decline, with coal use experiencing the sharpest reductions. Renewables represented 86% of all new electricity generation installed in 2023. Other forms of clean energy, such as nuclear and hydropower, currently have a larger share of the energy supply. However, their future growth forecasts appear limited in comparison.

While solar panels and onshore wind are now among the cheapest forms of adding new power generation capacity in many locations, green energy policies are needed to achieve a rapid transition from fossil fuels to renewables. To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, renewable energy would become the dominant form of electricity generation, rising to 85% or more by 2050 in some scenarios. Investment in coal would be eliminated and coal use nearly phased out by 2050.

Electricity generated from renewable sources would also need to become the main energy source for heating and transport. Transport can switch away from internal combustion engine vehicles and towards electric vehicles, public transit, and active transport (cycling and walking). For shipping and flying, low-carbon fuels would reduce emissions. Heating could be increasingly decarbonized with technologies like heat pumps.

There are obstacles to the continued rapid growth of clean energy, including renewables. Wind and solar produce energy intermittently and with seasonal variability. Traditionally, hydro dams with reservoirs and fossil fuel power plants have been used when variable energy production is low. Going forward, battery storage can be expanded, energy demand and supply can be matched, and long-distance transmission can smooth variability of renewable outputs. Bioenergy is often not carbon-neutral and may have negative consequences for food security. The growth of nuclear power is constrained by controversy around radioactive waste, nuclear weapon proliferation, and accidents. Hydropower growth is limited by the fact that the best sites have been developed, and new projects are confronting increased social and environmental concerns.

Low-carbon energy improves human health by minimizing climate change as well as reducing air pollution deaths, which were estimated at 7 million annually in 2016. Meeting the Paris Agreement goals that limit warming to a 2 °C increase could save about a million of those lives per year by 2050, whereas limiting global warming to 1.5 °C could save millions and simultaneously increase energy security and reduce poverty. Improving air quality also has economic benefits which may be larger than mitigation costs.

Energy conservation

Main articles: Efficient energy use and Energy conservation

Reducing energy demand is another major aspect of reducing emissions. If less energy is needed, there is more flexibility for clean energy development. It also makes it easier to manage the electricity grid, and minimizes carbon-intensive infrastructure development. Major increases in energy efficiency investment will be required to achieve climate goals, comparable to the level of investment in renewable energy. Several COVID-19 related changes in energy use patterns, energy efficiency investments, and funding have made forecasts for this decade more difficult and uncertain.

Strategies to reduce energy demand vary by sector. In the transport sector, passengers and freight can switch to more efficient travel modes, such as buses and trains, or use electric vehicles. Industrial strategies to reduce energy demand include improving heating systems and motors, designing less energy-intensive products, and increasing product lifetimes. In the building sector the focus is on better design of new buildings, and higher levels of energy efficiency in retrofitting. The use of technologies like heat pumps can also increase building energy efficiency.

Agriculture and industry

See also: Sustainable agriculture and Green industrial policy
Taking into account direct and indirect emissions, industry is the sector with the highest share of global emissions. Data as of 2019 from the IPCC.

Agriculture and forestry face a triple challenge of limiting greenhouse gas emissions, preventing the further conversion of forests to agricultural land, and meeting increases in world food demand. A set of actions could reduce agriculture and forestry-based emissions by two-thirds from 2010 levels. These include reducing growth in demand for food and other agricultural products, increasing land productivity, protecting and restoring forests, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production.

On the demand side, a key component of reducing emissions is shifting people towards plant-based diets. Eliminating the production of livestock for meat and dairy would eliminate about 3/4ths of all emissions from agriculture and other land use. Livestock also occupy 37% of ice-free land area on Earth and consume feed from the 12% of land area used for crops, driving deforestation and land degradation.

Steel and cement production are responsible for about 13% of industrial CO2 emissions. In these industries, carbon-intensive materials such as coke and lime play an integral role in the production, so that reducing CO2 emissions requires research into alternative chemistries. Where energy production or CO2-intensive heavy industries continue to produce waste CO2, technology can sometimes be used to capture and store most of the gas instead of releasing it to the atmosphere. This technology, carbon capture and storage (CCS), could have a critical but limited role in reducing emissions. It is relatively expensive and has been deployed only to an extent that removes around 0.1% of annual greenhouse gas emissions.

Carbon dioxide removal

Main articles: Carbon dioxide removal and Carbon sequestration
Most CO2 emissions have been absorbed by carbon sinks, including plant growth, soil uptake, and ocean uptake (2020 Global Carbon Budget).

Natural carbon sinks can be enhanced to sequester significantly larger amounts of CO2 beyond naturally occurring levels. Reforestation and afforestation (planting forests where there were none before) are among the most mature sequestration techniques, although the latter raises food security concerns. Farmers can promote sequestration of carbon in soils through practices such as use of winter cover crops, reducing the intensity and frequency of tillage, and using compost and manure as soil amendments. Forest and landscape restoration yields many benefits for the climate, including greenhouse gas emissions sequestration and reduction. Restoration/recreation of coastal wetlands, prairie plots and seagrass meadows increases the uptake of carbon into organic matter. When carbon is sequestered in soils and in organic matter such as trees, there is a risk of the carbon being re-released into the atmosphere later through changes in land use, fire, or other changes in ecosystems.

The use of bioenergy in conjunction with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can result in net negative emissions as CO2 is drawn from the atmosphere. It remains highly uncertain whether carbon dioxide removal techniques will be able to play a large role in limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Policy decisions that rely on carbon dioxide removal increase the risk of global warming rising beyond international goals.

Adaptation

Main article: Climate change adaptation

Adaptation is "the process of adjustment to current or expected changes in climate and its effects". Without additional mitigation, adaptation cannot avert the risk of "severe, widespread and irreversible" impacts. More severe climate change requires more transformative adaptation, which can be prohibitively expensive. The capacity and potential for humans to adapt is unevenly distributed across different regions and populations, and developing countries generally have less. The first two decades of the 21st century saw an increase in adaptive capacity in most low- and middle-income countries with improved access to basic sanitation and electricity, but progress is slow. Many countries have implemented adaptation policies. However, there is a considerable gap between necessary and available finance.

Adaptation to sea level rise consists of avoiding at-risk areas, learning to live with increased flooding, and building flood controls. If that fails, managed retreat may be needed. There are economic barriers for tackling dangerous heat impact. Avoiding strenuous work or having air conditioning is not possible for everybody. In agriculture, adaptation options include a switch to more sustainable diets, diversification, erosion control, and genetic improvements for increased tolerance to a changing climate. Insurance allows for risk-sharing, but is often difficult to get for people on lower incomes. Education, migration and early warning systems can reduce climate vulnerability. Planting mangroves or encouraging other coastal vegetation can buffer storms.

Ecosystems adapt to climate change, a process that can be supported by human intervention. By increasing connectivity between ecosystems, species can migrate to more favourable climate conditions. Species can also be introduced to areas acquiring a favourable climate. Protection and restoration of natural and semi-natural areas helps build resilience, making it easier for ecosystems to adapt. Many of the actions that promote adaptation in ecosystems, also help humans adapt via ecosystem-based adaptation. For instance, restoration of natural fire regimes makes catastrophic fires less likely, and reduces human exposure. Giving rivers more space allows for more water storage in the natural system, reducing flood risk. Restored forest acts as a carbon sink, but planting trees in unsuitable regions can exacerbate climate impacts.

There are synergies but also trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation. An example for synergy is increased food productivity, which has large benefits for both adaptation and mitigation. An example of a trade-off is that increased use of air conditioning allows people to better cope with heat, but increases energy demand. Another trade-off example is that more compact urban development may reduce emissions from transport and construction, but may also increase the urban heat island effect, exposing people to heat-related health risks.

Examples of adaptation methods

Policies and politics

See also: Politics of climate change and Climate change mitigation § Policies
The Climate Change Performance Index ranks countries by greenhouse gas emissions (40% of score), renewable energy (20%), energy use (20%), and climate policy (20%).
  High   Medium   Low   Very low

Countries that are most vulnerable to climate change have typically been responsible for a small share of global emissions. This raises questions about justice and fairness. Limiting global warming makes it much easier to achieve the UN's Sustainable Development Goals, such as eradicating poverty and reducing inequalities. The connection is recognized in Sustainable Development Goal 13 which is to "take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts". The goals on food, clean water and ecosystem protection have synergies with climate mitigation.

The geopolitics of climate change is complex. It has often been framed as a free-rider problem, in which all countries benefit from mitigation done by other countries, but individual countries would lose from switching to a low-carbon economy themselves. Sometimes mitigation also has localized benefits though. For instance, the benefits of a coal phase-out to public health and local environments exceed the costs in almost all regions. Furthermore, net importers of fossil fuels win economically from switching to clean energy, causing net exporters to face stranded assets: fossil fuels they cannot sell.

Policy options

Further information: Climate policy

A wide range of policies, regulations, and laws are being used to reduce emissions. As of 2019, carbon pricing covers about 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon can be priced with carbon taxes and emissions trading systems. Direct global fossil fuel subsidies reached $319 billion in 2017, and $5.2 trillion when indirect costs such as air pollution are priced in. Ending these can cause a 28% reduction in global carbon emissions and a 46% reduction in air pollution deaths. Money saved on fossil subsidies could be used to support the transition to clean energy instead. More direct methods to reduce greenhouse gases include vehicle efficiency standards, renewable fuel standards, and air pollution regulations on heavy industry. Several countries require utilities to increase the share of renewables in power production.

Climate justice

Policy designed through the lens of climate justice tries to address human rights issues and social inequality. According to proponents of climate justice, the costs of climate adaptation should be paid by those most responsible for climate change, while the beneficiaries of payments should be those suffering impacts. One way this can be addressed in practice is to have wealthy nations pay poorer countries to adapt.

Oxfam found that in 2023 the wealthiest 10% of people were responsible for 50% of global emissions, while the bottom 50% were responsible for just 8%. Production of emissions is another way to look at responsibility: under that approach, the top 21 fossil fuel companies would owe cumulative climate reparations of $5.4 trillion over the period 2025–2050. To achieve a just transition, people working in the fossil fuel sector would also need other jobs, and their communities would need investments.

International climate agreements

Further information: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Since 2000, rising CO2 emissions in China and the rest of world have surpassed the output of the United States and Europe.
Per person, the United States generates CO2 at a far faster rate than other primary regions.

Nearly all countries in the world are parties to the 1994 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The goal of the UNFCCC is to prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system. As stated in the convention, this requires that greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and economic development can be sustained. The UNFCCC does not itself restrict emissions but rather provides a framework for protocols that do. Global emissions have risen since the UNFCCC was signed. Its yearly conferences are the stage of global negotiations.

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol extended the UNFCCC and included legally binding commitments for most developed countries to limit their emissions. During the negotiations, the G77 (representing developing countries) pushed for a mandate requiring developed countries to " the lead" in reducing their emissions, since developed countries contributed most to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Per-capita emissions were also still relatively low in developing countries and developing countries would need to emit more to meet their development needs.

The 2009 Copenhagen Accord has been widely portrayed as disappointing because of its low goals, and was rejected by poorer nations including the G77. Associated parties aimed to limit the global temperature rise to below 2 °C. The Accord set the goal of sending $100 billion per year to developing countries for mitigation and adaptation by 2020, and proposed the founding of the Green Climate Fund. As of 2020, only 83.3 billion were delivered. Only in 2023 the target is expected to be achieved.

In 2015 all UN countries negotiated the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep global warming well below 2.0 °C and contains an aspirational goal of keeping warming under 1.5 °C. The agreement replaced the Kyoto Protocol. Unlike Kyoto, no binding emission targets were set in the Paris Agreement. Instead, a set of procedures was made binding. Countries have to regularly set ever more ambitious goals and reevaluate these goals every five years. The Paris Agreement restated that developing countries must be financially supported. As of October 2021, 194 states and the European Union have signed the treaty and 191 states and the EU have ratified or acceded to the agreement.

The 1987 Montreal Protocol, an international agreement to phase out production of ozone-depleting gases, has had benefits for climate change mitigation. Several ozone-depleting gases like chlorofluorocarbons are powerful greenhouse gases, so banning their production and usage may have avoided a temperature rise of 0.5 °C–1.0 °C, as well as additional warming by preventing damage to vegetation from ultraviolet radiation. It is estimated that the agreement has been more effective at curbing greenhouse gas emissions than the Kyoto Protocol specifically designed to do so. The most recent amendment to the Montreal Protocol, the 2016 Kigali Amendment, committed to reducing the emissions of hydrofluorocarbons, which served as a replacement for banned ozone-depleting gases and are also potent greenhouse gases. Should countries comply with the amendment, a warming of 0.3 °C–0.5 °C is estimated to be avoided.

National responses

Annual CO2 emissions by region. This measures fossil fuel and industry emissions. Land use change is not included.

In 2019, the United Kingdom parliament became the first national government to declare a climate emergency. Other countries and jurisdictions followed suit. That same year, the European Parliament declared a "climate and environmental emergency". The European Commission presented its European Green Deal with the goal of making the EU carbon-neutral by 2050. In 2021, the European Commission released its "Fit for 55" legislation package, which contains guidelines for the car industry; all new cars on the European market must be zero-emission vehicles from 2035.

Major countries in Asia have made similar pledges: South Korea and Japan have committed to become carbon-neutral by 2050, and China by 2060. While India has strong incentives for renewables, it also plans a significant expansion of coal in the country. Vietnam is among very few coal-dependent, fast-developing countries that pledged to phase out unabated coal power by the 2040s or as soon as possible thereafter.

As of 2021, based on information from 48 national climate plans, which represent 40% of the parties to the Paris Agreement, estimated total greenhouse gas emissions will be 0.5% lower compared to 2010 levels, below the 45% or 25% reduction goals to limit global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C, respectively.

Society

Denial and misinformation

Further information: Climate change denial and Fossil fuels lobby
Data has been cherry picked from short periods to falsely assert that global temperatures are not rising. Blue trendlines show short periods that mask longer-term warming trends (red trendlines). Blue rectangle with blue dots shows the so-called global warming hiatus.

Public debate about climate change has been strongly affected by climate change denial and misinformation, which originated in the United States and has since spread to other countries, particularly Canada and Australia. Climate change denial has originated from fossil fuel companies, industry groups, conservative think tanks, and contrarian scientists. Like the tobacco industry, the main strategy of these groups has been to manufacture doubt about climate-change related scientific data and results. People who hold unwarranted doubt about climate change are called climate change "skeptics", although "contrarians" or "deniers" are more appropriate terms.

There are different variants of climate denial: some deny that warming takes place at all, some acknowledge warming but attribute it to natural influences, and some minimize the negative impacts of climate change. Manufacturing uncertainty about the science later developed into a manufactured controversy: creating the belief that there is significant uncertainty about climate change within the scientific community to delay policy changes. Strategies to promote these ideas include criticism of scientific institutions, and questioning the motives of individual scientists. An echo chamber of climate-denying blogs and media has further fomented misunderstanding of climate change.

Public awareness and opinion

Further information: Climate communication, Media coverage of climate change, and Public opinion on climate change
The public substantially underestimates the degree of scientific consensus that humans are causing climate change. Studies from 2019 to 2021 found scientific consensus to range from 98.7 to 100%.

Climate change came to international public attention in the late 1980s. Due to media coverage in the early 1990s, people often confused climate change with other environmental issues like ozone depletion. In popular culture, the climate fiction movie The Day After Tomorrow (2004) and the Al Gore documentary An Inconvenient Truth (2006) focused on climate change.

Significant regional, gender, age and political differences exist in both public concern for, and understanding of, climate change. More highly educated people, and in some countries, women and younger people, were more likely to see climate change as a serious threat. College biology textbooks from the 2010s featured less content on climate change compared to those from the preceding decade, with decreasing emphasis on solutions. Partisan gaps also exist in many countries, and countries with high CO2 emissions tend to be less concerned. Views on causes of climate change vary widely between countries. Concern has increased over time, and a majority of citizens in many countries now express a high level of worry about climate change, or view it as a global emergency. Higher levels of worry are associated with stronger public support for policies that address climate change.

Climate movement

Main articles: Climate movement and Climate change litigation

Climate protests demand that political leaders take action to prevent climate change. They can take the form of public demonstrations, fossil fuel divestment, lawsuits and other activities. Prominent demonstrations include the School Strike for Climate. In this initiative, young people across the globe have been protesting since 2018 by skipping school on Fridays, inspired by Swedish activist and then-teenager Greta Thunberg. Mass civil disobedience actions by groups like Extinction Rebellion have protested by disrupting roads and public transport.

Litigation is increasingly used as a tool to strengthen climate action from public institutions and companies. Activists also initiate lawsuits which target governments and demand that they take ambitious action or enforce existing laws on climate change. Lawsuits against fossil-fuel companies generally seek compensation for loss and damage.

History

For broader coverage of this topic, see History of climate change science.

Early discoveries

This 1912 article succinctly describes the greenhouse effect, how burning coal creates carbon dioxide to cause global warming and climate change.

Scientists in the 19th century such as Alexander von Humboldt began to foresee the effects of climate change. In the 1820s, Joseph Fourier proposed the greenhouse effect to explain why Earth's temperature was higher than the Sun's energy alone could explain. Earth's atmosphere is transparent to sunlight, so sunlight reaches the surface where it is converted to heat. However, the atmosphere is not transparent to heat radiating from the surface, and captures some of that heat, which in turn warms the planet.

In 1856 Eunice Newton Foote demonstrated that the warming effect of the Sun is greater for air with water vapour than for dry air, and that the effect is even greater with carbon dioxide (CO2). She concluded that "An atmosphere of that gas would give to our earth a high temperature..."

Studying what would become known as the greenhouse effect, Tyndall's pre-1861 ratio spectrophotometer measured how much various gases in a tube absorb and emit infrared radiation—which humans experience as heat.

Starting in 1859, John Tyndall established that nitrogen and oxygen—together totalling 99% of dry air—are transparent to radiated heat. However, water vapour and gases such as methane and carbon dioxide absorb radiated heat and re-radiate that heat into the atmosphere. Tyndall proposed that changes in the concentrations of these gases may have caused climatic changes in the past, including ice ages.

Svante Arrhenius noted that water vapour in air continuously varied, but the CO2 concentration in air was influenced by long-term geological processes. Warming from increased CO2 levels would increase the amount of water vapour, amplifying warming in a positive feedback loop. In 1896, he published the first climate model of its kind, projecting that halving CO2 levels could have produced a drop in temperature initiating an ice age. Arrhenius calculated the temperature increase expected from doubling CO2 to be around 5–6 °C. Other scientists were initially sceptical and believed that the greenhouse effect was saturated so that adding more CO2 would make no difference, and that the climate would be self-regulating. Beginning in 1938, Guy Stewart Callendar published evidence that climate was warming and CO2 levels were rising, but his calculations met the same objections.

Development of a scientific consensus

See also: Scientific consensus on climate change
Scientific consensus on causation: Academic studies of scientific agreement on human-caused global warming among climate experts (2010–2015) reflect that the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science. A 2019 study found scientific consensus to be at 100%, and a 2021 study concluded that consensus exceeded 99%. Another 2021 study found that 98.7% of climate experts indicated that the Earth is getting warmer mostly because of human activity.

In the 1950s, Gilbert Plass created a detailed computer model that included different atmospheric layers and the infrared spectrum. This model predicted that increasing CO2 levels would cause warming. Around the same time, Hans Suess found evidence that CO2 levels had been rising, and Roger Revelle showed that the oceans would not absorb the increase. The two scientists subsequently helped Charles Keeling to begin a record of continued increase, which has been termed the "Keeling Curve". Scientists alerted the public, and the dangers were highlighted at James Hansen's 1988 Congressional testimony. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), set up in 1988 to provide formal advice to the world's governments, spurred interdisciplinary research. As part of the IPCC reports, scientists assess the scientific discussion that takes place in peer-reviewed journal articles.

There is a near-complete scientific consensus that the climate is warming and that this is caused by human activities. As of 2019, agreement in recent literature reached over 99%. No scientific body of national or international standing disagrees with this view. Consensus has further developed that some form of action should be taken to protect people against the impacts of climate change. National science academies have called on world leaders to cut global emissions. The 2021 IPCC Assessment Report stated that it is "unequivocal" that climate change is caused by humans.

See also

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