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{{Use dmy dates|date=January 2025}} | {{Use dmy dates|date=January 2025}} | ||
], located in unrecognized ]. It generated most of ]'s ] for decades, and ran historically on ] supplied by ] to Transnistria for free.]] | ], located in unrecognized ]. It generated most of ]'s ] for decades, and ran historically on ] supplied by ] to Transnistria for free.]] | ||
On 31 December 2024, at 19:50 ] (17:50 ]), ]'s ] of ] stopped receiving ] supplies from ]. Historically, Transnistria had covered most of Moldova's ] through the ], which functioned with Russian gas supplied to Transnistria for free. However, with the termination of Russian gas supplies to Transnistria and the end of Moldovan purchases of Transnistrian ], the possibility of a ] in Transnistria has arisen, which could even lead to the collapse of the breakaway state and ]. | On 31 December 2024, at 19:50 ] (17:50 ]), ]'s ] of ] stopped receiving ] supplies from ] when Ukraine's gas transit deal with Russia expired.<ref>https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/03/moldova-ukraines-halt-of-russian-gas-throws-transnistria-into-crisis.html</ref> Historically, Transnistria had covered most of Moldova's ] through the ], which functioned with Russian gas supplied to Transnistria for free. However, with the termination of Russian gas supplies to Transnistria and the end of Moldovan purchases of Transnistrian ], the possibility of a ] in Transnistria has arisen, which could even lead to the collapse of the breakaway state and ]. | ||
==Background== | ==Background== | ||
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===Gazprom's confirmation of the end of gas supplies=== | ===Gazprom's confirmation of the end of gas supplies=== | ||
On 23 December, the ] (SVR RF) alleged that ] Sandu had asked for a plan to take the Cuciurgan power station and Transnistria as a whole by force, that was no guarantee that she would not start a war in the region and that she "is out of her mind".<ref>{{cite news|url=https://stirileprotv.ro/stiri/international/rusia-o-acuza-pe-maia-sandu-ca-pregateste-planul-unei-operatiuni-militare-in-transnistria.html|title=Rusia o acuză pe Maia Sandu că pregătește planul unei operațiuni militare în Transnistria|first=Mihaela|last=Ivăncică|publisher=]|date=23 December 2024|language=ro}}</ref> ] formally notified Moldovagaz on 28 December that gas supplies to Moldova would be completely stopped on 1 January 2025 at 08:00 ] (07:00 ], 05:00 ]). Gazprom cited Moldovagaz's alleged failure to fulfill its payment obligations under the contract as the reason, and it stated that it retained the right to completely terminate the agreement between the two and to demand compensations from Moldovagaz. In response, Recean announced that Moldova would not accept any debt invalidated by the international audit and that Russia was using energy as a political weapon.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.libertatea.ro/stiri/gazprom-opreste-gaze-naturale-republica-moldova-de-la-1-ianuarie-2025-5139104|title=Gazprom anunță oprirea livrărilor de gaze naturale către Republica Moldova de la 1 ianuarie 2025. Motivul invocat|first=Ciprian|last=Iana|newspaper=Libertatea|date=28 December 2024|language=ro}}</ref> On the same day, ], Transnistria's largest gas supplier company, cut off the gas supply to several buildings of the Moldovan authorities in the ] and in the city of ] (Tighina).<ref>{{cite news|url=https://newsmaker.md/rus/novosti/tiraspoltransgaz-otklyuchil-ot-gaza-neskolko-zdaniy-gosuchrezhdeniy-v-zone-bezopasnosti-v-byuro-reintegratsii-rasskazali-i-o-problemah-s-otopleniem/|title="Тираспольтрансгаз" отключил от газа несколько зданий госучреждений в Зоне безопасности. В Бюро реинтеграции рассказали и о проблемах с отоплением|first=Kirill|last=Sazhin|newspaper=NewsMaker|date=28 December 2024|language=ru}}</ref> | On 23 December, the ] (SVR RF) alleged that ] Sandu had asked for a plan to take the Cuciurgan power station and Transnistria as a whole by force, that was no guarantee that she would not start a war in the region and that she "is out of her mind".<ref>{{cite news|url=https://stirileprotv.ro/stiri/international/rusia-o-acuza-pe-maia-sandu-ca-pregateste-planul-unei-operatiuni-militare-in-transnistria.html|title=Rusia o acuză pe Maia Sandu că pregătește planul unei operațiuni militare în Transnistria|first=Mihaela|last=Ivăncică|publisher=]|date=23 December 2024|language=ro}}</ref> ] formally notified Moldovagaz on 28 December that gas supplies to Moldova would be completely stopped on 1 January 2025 at 08:00 ] (07:00 ], 05:00 ]). Gazprom cited Moldovagaz's alleged failure to fulfill its payment obligations under the contract as the reason, and it stated that it retained the right to completely terminate the agreement between the two and to demand compensations from Moldovagaz. In response, Recean announced that Moldova would not accept any debt invalidated by the international audit and that Russia was using energy as a political weapon.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.libertatea.ro/stiri/gazprom-opreste-gaze-naturale-republica-moldova-de-la-1-ianuarie-2025-5139104|title=Gazprom anunță oprirea livrărilor de gaze naturale către Republica Moldova de la 1 ianuarie 2025. Motivul invocat|first=Ciprian|last=Iana|newspaper=]|date=28 December 2024|language=ro}}</ref> On the same day, ], Transnistria's largest gas supplier company, cut off the gas supply to several buildings of the Moldovan authorities in the ] and in the city of ] (Tighina).<ref>{{cite news|url=https://newsmaker.md/rus/novosti/tiraspoltransgaz-otklyuchil-ot-gaza-neskolko-zdaniy-gosuchrezhdeniy-v-zone-bezopasnosti-v-byuro-reintegratsii-rasskazali-i-o-problemah-s-otopleniem/|title="Тираспольтрансгаз" отключил от газа несколько зданий госучреждений в Зоне безопасности. В Бюро реинтеграции рассказали и о проблемах с отоплением|first=Kirill|last=Sazhin|newspaper=NewsMaker|date=28 December 2024|language=ru}}</ref> | ||
Also on the same day, the opposition ] (PSRM), led by former president ], called on the government, which it blamed for the crisis, to try to find solutions regarding the problem of the debt demanded by Gazprom and to re-establish dialogue with Russia to continue the supply of gas and prevent a ]. Recean condemned this call, denied the existence of Gazprom's demanded debt and referred to the Socialists as "political speculators of the Kremlin". Parliament member ], of the incumbent ] (PAS), referred to the Socialists' behavior as traitorous for Moldova.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://adevarul.ro/stiri-externe/republica-moldova/socialistii-cer-chisinaului-achitarea-pretinsei-2411819.html|title=Socialiștii cer Chișinăului achitarea pretinsei datorii invocată de Gazpom. Premierul Dorin Recean: Speculanți politici ai Kremlinului|first=Alina|last=Cotoros|newspaper=]|date=30 December 2024|language=ro}}</ref> | Also on the same day, the opposition ] (PSRM), led by former president ], called on the government, which it blamed for the crisis, to try to find solutions regarding the problem of the debt demanded by Gazprom and to re-establish dialogue with Russia to continue the supply of gas and prevent a ]. Recean condemned this call, denied the existence of Gazprom's demanded debt and referred to the Socialists as "political speculators of the Kremlin". Parliament member ], of the incumbent ] (PAS), referred to the Socialists' behavior as traitorous for Moldova.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://adevarul.ro/stiri-externe/republica-moldova/socialistii-cer-chisinaului-achitarea-pretinsei-2411819.html|title=Socialiștii cer Chișinăului achitarea pretinsei datorii invocată de Gazpom. Premierul Dorin Recean: Speculanți politici ai Kremlinului|first=Alina|last=Cotoros|newspaper=]|date=30 December 2024|language=ro}}</ref> | ||
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==Crisis== | ==Crisis== | ||
===In Transnistria=== | |||
⚫ | On 1 January 2025, at 07:00 EET (05:00 UTC), Ukraine stopped the transit of Russian gas to Europe through its territory.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://newsmaker.md/ro/autoritatile-de-la-kiev-au-oprit-tranzitul-gazului-rusesc-prin-ucraina-este-un-eveniment-istoric/|title=Autoritățile de la Kiev au oprit tranzitul gazului rusesc prin Ucraina: "Este un eveniment istoric"|first=Ana Maria|last=Dolghii|newspaper=NewsMaker|date=1 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> The supply of gas to Transnistria through Ukraine stopped earlier, on 31 December at 19:50 EET (17:50 UTC).<ref name=":7">{{cite news|url=https://novostipmr.com/ru/news/25-01-01/prezident-pmr-provel-zasedanie-opershtaba-po-preodoleniyu|title=Президент ПМР провел заседание Оперштаба по преодолению энергокризиса|newspaper=Novosti Pridnestrovya|date=1 January 2025|language=ru}}</ref> As a result, ] and ] were cut off in Transnistria.<ref name=":5" /> An exception was made for healthcare and residential care facilities.<ref name=":6">{{cite news|url=https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/01/01/russian-gas-halt-leaves-transnistria-without-heating-amid-winter-freeze-a87499|title=Russian Gas Halt Leaves Transnistria Without Heating Amid Winter Freeze|newspaper=]|date=1 January 2025 |
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], the ] during the energy crisis]] | |||
⚫ | On 1 January 2025, at 07:00 EET (05:00 UTC), Ukraine stopped the transit of Russian gas to Europe through its territory.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://newsmaker.md/ro/autoritatile-de-la-kiev-au-oprit-tranzitul-gazului-rusesc-prin-ucraina-este-un-eveniment-istoric/|title=Autoritățile de la Kiev au oprit tranzitul gazului rusesc prin Ucraina: "Este un eveniment istoric"|first=Ana Maria|last=Dolghii|newspaper=NewsMaker|date=1 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> The supply of gas to Transnistria through Ukraine stopped earlier, on 31 December at 19:50 EET (17:50 UTC).<ref name=":7">{{cite news|url=https://novostipmr.com/ru/news/25-01-01/prezident-pmr-provel-zasedanie-opershtaba-po-preodoleniyu|title=Президент ПМР провел заседание Оперштаба по преодолению энергокризиса|newspaper=]|date=1 January 2025|language=ru}}</ref> As a result, ] and ] were cut off in Transnistria.<ref name=":5" /> An exception was made for healthcare and residential care facilities.<ref name=":6">{{cite news|url=https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/01/01/russian-gas-halt-leaves-transnistria-without-heating-amid-winter-freeze-a87499|title=Russian Gas Halt Leaves Transnistria Without Heating Amid Winter Freeze|newspaper=]|date=1 January 2025}}</ref> Gas supplies were suspended for the private sector and rural areas, and the use of gas for cooking was permitted until the pressure of the network dropped to a critical level.<ref name=":8" /> Transnistrian president Krasnoselsky stated that "we knew about this possibility , prepared for it and were not caught off guard".<ref name=":9" /> | ||
The Cuciurgan power station switched from gas to ] for power generation exactly at midnight on 1 January.<ref name=":7" /> Coal reserves would reportedly allow for 50 to 52 days of supply, during which Transnistria was to have guaranteed electricity.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://alerta.md/centrala-electrica-de-la-cuciurgan-a-trecut-de-astazi-pe-carbune-rezervele-ajung-pentru-cel-putin-50-de-zile/|title=Centrala electrică de la Cuciurgan a trecut de astăzi pe cărbune. Rezervele ajung pentru cel puțin 50 de zile|newspaper=ALERTA.MD|date=1 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> |
The Cuciurgan power station switched from gas to ] for power generation exactly at midnight on 1 January.<ref name=":7" /> Coal reserves would reportedly allow for 50 to 52 days of supply, during which Transnistria was to have guaranteed electricity.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://alerta.md/centrala-electrica-de-la-cuciurgan-a-trecut-de-astazi-pe-carbune-rezervele-ajung-pentru-cel-putin-50-de-zile/|title=Centrala electrică de la Cuciurgan a trecut de astăzi pe cărbune. Rezervele ajung pentru cel puțin 50 de zile|newspaper=ALERTA.MD|date=1 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> However, the Moldovan government's crisis centre reported on 4 January that coal reserves for the power station would only last until the end of January, after which Transnistria would be left without electricity. The ] would remain operational in such case, but its production capacity was much lower, of 24 MWh at that moment.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2025/01/4/7201828/|title=Запасів вугілля для електроенергії у Придністров'ї вистачить лише на січень – уряд Молдови|first=Khrystyna|last=Bondarieva|newspaper=European Pravda|date=5 January 2025|language=uk}}</ref> Regarding gas reserves, Transnistria's amounted to {{convert|13|e6m3|e6cuft|abbr=off}} as of 1 January, enough for 10 days in the north of the region and 20 days in the south,<ref name=":8">{{cite news|url=https://newsmaker.md/rus/novosti/energokrizis-v-moldove-glavnoe-chto-proishodit-v-pridnestrove-i-na-pravom-beregu-1-yanvarya-2025-goda/|title=Энергокризис в Молдове: главное. Что происходит в Приднестровье и на Правом берегу 1 января 2025 года|first=Nikolay|last=Pakholnitsky|newspaper=NewsMaker|date=1 January 2025|language=ru}}</ref> only to be used for cooking and not for heating.<ref name=":9" /> | ||
According to Transnistria's Minister of Economic Development, {{ill|Sergey Obolonik|ru|Оболоник, Сергей Анатольевич}}, as of 2 January, almost 75,000 households had been disconnected from the supply of gas, while 116,000 would receive a limited amount of gas for the moment. He assured that electricity tariffs would not increase for the Transnistrian population despite the energy crisis.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://novostipmr.com/ru/news/25-01-02/tarify-na-svet-dlya-naseleniya-v-pridnestrove-povyshat-ne-budut|title=Тарифы на свет для населения в Приднестровье повышать не будут|newspaper=Novosti Pridnestrovya|date=2 January 2025|language=ru}}</ref> On 6 January, ], ], stated that 122 settlements were completely cut off from the gas supply, including 51,507 rural households, over 20,000 urban households and 1,800 legal entities and entrepreneurs.<ref name=":14" /> Furthermore, on 4 January, one of ]'s districts was left without water. The next day, the Transnistrian authorities warned that the upper floors in high-rise buildings in Tiraspol and Bender could be left without water as a result of a drop in pressure in the network during the power cuts,<ref>{{cite news|url=https://newsmaker.md/rus/novosti/v-pridnestrove-predupredili-ob-otklyuchenii-vody-iz-za-veernyh-otklyucheniy-elektroenergii/|title=В Приднестровье предупредили об отключении воды из-за веерных отключений электроэнергии|first=Vera|last=Balakhnova|newspaper=NewsMaker|date=5 January 2025|language=ru}}</ref> and several settlements in ] were cut off from water.<ref name=":14">{{cite news|url=https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/01/06/zhitelyam-pridnestrovya-otklyuchayut-vodu-posle-prekrascheniya-gazovih-postavok-iz-rossii-a151812|title=Жителям Приднестровья отключают воду после прекращения газовых поставок из России|newspaper=The Moscow Times|date=6 January 2025|language=ru}}</ref> | |||
Regarding the rest of Moldova, electricity supplies from the Cuciurgan power station stopped completely. Moldova's Termoelectrica company put the {{ill|CET-1 power station|ro|CET-1|ru|Кишинёвская ТЭЦ-1|uk|ТЕЦ №1 (Кишинів)}} in operation. It produced 6 MW, while the {{ill|CET-2 power station|ro|CET-2|ru|Кишинёвская ТЭЦ-2|uk|ТЕЦ №2 (Кишинів)}} produced 174–175 MW.<ref name=":8" /> Energocom stated that the deficit of the electricity system in government-held Moldova was about 600 MW, to be covered not only from the Romanian electricity market and bilateral contracts, but also from Ukraine's ] state-owned energy company.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://newsmaker.md/ro/energocom-a-asigurat-necesarul-de-energie-electrica-pentru-2-ianuarie-va-fi-cumparata-electricitate-inclusiv-din-ucraina/|title=Energocom a asigurat necesarul de energie electrică pentru 2 ianuarie. Va fi cumpărată electricitate inclusiv din Ucraina|first=Ana Maria|last=Dolghii|newspaper=NewsMaker|date=1 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> Electricity imported from Romania arrived via the ]–] line. Consumption on both banks of the Dniester for 1 January was lower than the forecasted 825 MW, at 756 MW at the time of writing of an article by Moldovan news website ''NewsMaker''.<ref name=":8" /> Moldovan foreign policy presidential adviser Olga Roșca declared to the ] that "we're treating this not as an energy crisis but a security crisis", which would have been instigated by Russia to destabilize the country socially and economically and "create demand for a return of pro-Russian forces to power" ahead of the 2025 parliamentary election in Moldova.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy8ymx50kz8o|title=Moldova faces energy crisis as flow of Russian gas ends|first=Sarah|last=Rainsford|author-link=Sarah Rainsford|publisher=]|date=1 January 2025}}</ref> | |||
On |
On 1 January, production facilities and hundreds of businesses put their operations on hold,<ref name=":9" /> leaving thousands of people unemployed.<ref name=":10">{{cite news|url=https://stirileprotv.ro/stiri/international/transnistria-sufera-fara-gazele-rusesti-unde-mii-de-oameni-au-ramas-someri-ajutorul-nesperat-oferit-din-republica-moldova.html|title=Transnistria suferă fără gazele rusești, unde mii de oameni au rămas șomeri. Ajutorul nesperat oferit din Republica Moldova|publisher=Pro TV|date=2 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> The next day, Obolonik stated that all industrial enterprises in Transnistria had stopped their activities, with the exception of those necessary to maintain ] in the breakaway state. He warned of "irreversible changes" as "enterprises will lose the ability to start up" if the gas problem was not resolved soon.<ref name=":12">{{cite news|url=https://novostipmr.com/ru/news/25-01-02/sergey-obolonik-vse-promyshlennye-predpriyatiya-pridnestrovya|title=Сергей Оболоник: Все промышленные предприятия Приднестровья остановились|newspaper=Novosti Pridnestrovya|date=2 January 2025|language=ru}}</ref> On 4 January, ] director Serghei Kornev stated that the steel plant in ] had ceased operations and could not be reactivated in the near future, leaving over 2,000 workers unemployed and creating risks for the Transnistrian economy.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.ipn.md/ro/uzina-metalurgica-de-la-ribnita-a-fost-inchisa-lasand-7966_1110565.html|title=Uzina metalurgică de la Rîbnița a fost închisă, lăsând peste 2 mii de șomeri|newspaper=IPN Press Agency|date=4 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> | ||
] were first introduced on 3 January, lasting one hour, to be rotated between four groups of different regions of the republic at distinct hours, as the energy system would not be producing enough electricity to meet the population's consumption level.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://novostipmr.com/ru/news/25-01-03/3-yanvarya-s-1800-v-pridnestrove-nachnutsya-veernye-otklyucheniya|title=3 января с 18:00 в Приднестровье начнутся веерные отключения электроэнергии|newspaper=Novosti Pridnestrovya|date=3 January 2025|language=ru}}</ref> They were extended to three hours on 4 January and to four hours on 5 January.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://esp.md/ru/sobytiya/2025/01/04/v-pridnestrove-otklyucheniya-sveta-stali-dlinnee-do-4-chasov|title=В Приднестровье отключения света стали длиннее: до 4 часов|first=Sergey|last=Stashevskiy|newspaper=Gazeta SP|date=4 January 2025|language=ru}}</ref> Constantin Borosan, secretary of state of Moldova's energy ministry, reported on 5 January that the power deficit in Transnistria had reached around 30% of consumption, about 65 ]s, as people were using ] following the stop of gas supplies to rural areas and businesses and of heating and hot water to cities.<ref name=":16">{{cite news|url=https://newsmaker.md/ro/nu-avem-niciun-raspuns-chisinaul-despre-solutiile-propuse-tiraspolului-pentru-a-evita-criza-din-regiune/|title="Nu avem niciun răspuns". Chișinăul, despre soluțiile propuse Tiraspolului pentru a evita criza din regiune|first=Mihaela|last=Conovali|newspaper=NewsMaker|date=5 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> According to him, the 30% power deficit could provoke a complete collapse of the region's power system.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/moldovi-poperedili-shcho-energosistema-pridnistrov-1736177247.html|title=У Молдові попередили, що енергосистема Придністров'я може повністю вийти з ладу|first=Tetyana|last=Stepanova|publisher=]|date=6 January 2025|language=uk}}</ref> The power cuts in Transnistria were extended yet again on 7 January to eight hours, two separate cuts of four hours each.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2025/01/6/7201939/|title=У Придністров'ї знову збільшили час відключень: світла не буде по 8 годин на добу|first=Mariya|last=Yemets|newspaper=European Pravda|date=6 January 2025|language=uk}}</ref> | |||
On 3 January, Moldova's National Agency for Energy Regulation (ANRE) increased electricity tariffs for Premier Energy consumers in the centre and south of the country by 75% (from 2.34 to 4.10 lei per ]) and for FEE-Nord consumers in the north by 65% (from 2.84 to 4.68 lei per kWh). Heating tariffs were also increased by 38% in Chișinău, 17% in Bălți and 12% in ]. The ] announced it would compensate the increase in energy tariffs to those who had already submitted compensation requests.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://newsmaker.md/rus/novosti/veernye-otklyucheniya-v-pridnestrove-i-vzlet-tarifov-na-pravom-beregu-glavnoe-ob-energokrizise-v-moldove-na-3-yanvarya/|title=Веерные отключения в Приднестровье и взлет тарифов на Правом берегу. Главное об энергокризисе в Молдове на 3 января|first=Nikolay|last=Pakholnitsky|newspaper=NewsMaker|date=3 January 2025|language=ru}}</ref> The volume of gas exports from Romania to Moldova, carried out primarily through the ], reached a record level of {{convert|5|e6m3|e6cuft|abbr=unit}} of gas.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.digifm.ro/stiri/extern/romania-stabileste-un-record-istoric-al-exporturilor-de-gaze-catre-republica-moldova-238591|title=România stabilește un record istoric al exporturilor de gaze către Republica Moldova|publisher=Digi FM|date=3 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> In Transnistria, one-hour ] were introduced, to be rotated between four groups of different regions of the republic at distinct hours, as the energy system would not be producing enough electricity to meet the population's consumption level.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://novostipmr.com/ru/news/25-01-03/3-yanvarya-s-1800-v-pridnestrove-nachnutsya-veernye-otklyucheniya|title=3 января с 18:00 в Приднестровье начнутся веерные отключения электроэнергии|newspaper=Novosti Pridnestrovya|date=3 January 2025|language=ru}}</ref> Recean described the end of Russian gas supplies to Transnistria as a security crisis for Moldova with the aim of allowing a pro-Russian victory in the upcoming parliamentary election and "transforming our territory into a weapon against Ukraine", adding that Russia had "betrayed" and "isolated" Transnistria. Furthermore, the Moldovan government announced it had alternative energy sources (], ]), humanitarian aid and essential medical supplies ready to be sent to Transnistria if the separatist authorities accepted the help.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.digi24.ro/stiri/externe/moldova/premierul-rep-moldova-despre-criza-din-transnistria-rusia-arata-rezultatul-inevitabil-pentru-toti-aliatii-sai-tradarea-si-izolarea-3067781|title=Premierul Rep. Moldova, despre criza din Transnistria: Rusia arată rezultatul inevitabil pentru toți aliații săi, trădarea și izolarea|first=Maria|last=Isopescu|publisher=Digi24|date=3 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> This offer was also rejected.<ref name=":11" /> | |||
===In the rest of Moldova=== | |||
On 4 January, the power cuts in Transnistria were extended to three hours, with Krasnoselsky informing that yesterday's one-hour power cuts had been a test to confirm that their duration would not be sufficient to ensure the power supply system's safety.<ref name=":12">{{cite news|url=https://esp.md/ru/sobytiya/2025/01/04/v-pridnestrove-otklyucheniya-sveta-stali-dlinnee-do-4-chasov|title=В Приднестровье отключения света стали длиннее: до 4 часов|first=Sergey|last=Stashevskiy|newspaper=Gazeta SP|date=4 January 2025|language=ru}}</ref> The Moldovan government's crisis centre reported that coal reserves for the Cuciurgan power station would only last until the end of January and not until the 50 days that were initially announced in the breakaway state, after which Transnistria would be left without electricity. The Dubăsari Dam would still be operational in such case, but its production capacity was much lower, of 24 MWh at that moment.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2025/01/4/7201828/|title=Запасів вугілля для електроенергії у Придністров'ї вистачить лише на січень – уряд Молдови|first=Khrystyna|last=Bondarieva|newspaper=]|date=5 January 2025|language=uk}}</ref> Constantin Borosan, secretary of state of Moldova's energy ministry, announced that Moldova was registering an energy consumption level lower than expected due to the population's receptivity of the authorities' calls to save energy.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://stirileprotv.ro/stiri/actualitate/romania-tine-becul-aprins-in-moldova-basarabenii-se-solidarizeaza-si-reduc-consumul-de-curent-le-multumim.html|title=România ține becul aprins în Moldova, basarabenii se solidarizează și reduc consumul de curent. "Le mulțumim!"|first=Cristian|last=Anton|publisher=Pro TV|date=4 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> ], the ], called on the Moldovan government to compensate for the damages caused to Bălți by its "incompetent policies" regarding energy security in the face of increased electricity and heating tariffs.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://noi.md/md/societate/primarul-municipiului-balti-a-cerut-guvernului-compensarea-prejudiciilor-aduse-orasului-din-cauza-politicii-incompetente-in-domeniul-energetic|title=Primarul municipiului Bălți a cerut guvernului compensarea prejudiciilor aduse orașului din cauza politicii incompetente în domeniul energetic|newspaper=Noi.md|date=4 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> In Transnistria, ] director Serghei Kornev stated that the steel plant in ] had ceased operations and could not be reactivated in the near future, leaving over 2,000 workers unemployed and creating risks for the Transnistrian economy.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.ipn.md/ro/uzina-metalurgica-de-la-ribnita-a-fost-inchisa-lasand-7966_1110565.html|title=Uzina metalurgică de la Rîbnița a fost închisă, lăsând peste 2 mii de șomeri|newspaper=IPN Press Agency|date=4 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> One of Tiraspol's districts was left without water this day.<ref name=":13">{{cite news|url=https://newsmaker.md/rus/novosti/v-pridnestrove-predupredili-ob-otklyuchenii-vody-iz-za-veernyh-otklyucheniy-elektroenergii/|title=В Приднестровье предупредили об отключении воды из-за веерных отключений электроэнергии|first=Vera|last=Balakhnova|newspaper=NewsMaker|date=5 January 2025|language=ru}}</ref> | |||
Electricity supplies to Moldova from the Cuciurgan power station stopped completely on 1 January. Moldova's Termoelectrica company put the {{ill|CET-1 power station|ro|CET-1|ru|Кишинёвская ТЭЦ-1|uk|ТЕЦ №1 (Кишинів)}} in operation that day. It produced 6 MW, while the {{ill|CET-2 power station|ro|CET-2|ru|Кишинёвская ТЭЦ-2|uk|ТЕЦ №2 (Кишинів)}} produced 174–175 MW.<ref name=":8" /> Throughout the energy crisis, the {{ill|CET-Nord power station|ro|CET-Nord|ru|CET-Nord|uk|CET-Nord}} and the {{ill|Stânca–Costești Hydroelectric Station|ro|Centrala hidroelectrică de la Stânca–Costești|ru|Костешты-Стынка ГЭС}} also helped Moldova produce electricity.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://newsmaker.md/ro/situatia-energetica-pe-6-ianuarie-pe-cele-doua-maluri-ale-nistrului-noi-deconectari-inclusiv-la-copanca-si-varnita/|title=Situația energetică pe 6 ianuarie pe cele două maluri ale Nistrului. Noi deconectări, inclusiv la Copanca și Varnița|first=Anatol|last=Cibotari|newspaper=NewsMaker|date=6 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> | |||
According to Energocom, the deficit of the electricity system in government-held Moldova was about 600 MW as of 1 January, to be covered not only from the Romanian electricity market and bilateral contracts, but also from Ukraine's ] state-owned energy company.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://newsmaker.md/ro/energocom-a-asigurat-necesarul-de-energie-electrica-pentru-2-ianuarie-va-fi-cumparata-electricitate-inclusiv-din-ucraina/|title=Energocom a asigurat necesarul de energie electrică pentru 2 ianuarie. Va fi cumpărată electricitate inclusiv din Ucraina|first=Ana Maria|last=Dolghii|newspaper=NewsMaker|date=1 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> Electricity imported from Romania arrived via the ]–] line.<ref name=":8" /> The volume of gas exports from Romania to Moldova, carried out primarily through the ], reached a record level of {{convert|5|e6m3|e6cuft|abbr=unit}} of gas on 3 January.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.digifm.ro/stiri/extern/romania-stabileste-un-record-istoric-al-exporturilor-de-gaze-catre-republica-moldova-238591|title=România stabilește un record istoric al exporturilor de gaze către Republica Moldova|publisher=Digi FM|date=3 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> Romanian energy minister Burduja had declared the previous day "I consider that we have a moral duty to stand by our brothers across the ] with everything possible".<ref>{{cite news|url=https://stirileprotv.ro/stiri/actualitate/burduja-despre-ajutorul-acordat-de-romania-zfratilor-de-peste-prut-dupa-oprirea-gazelor-rusesti-zavem-o-datorie-morala.html|title=Burduja, despre ajutorul acordat de România "fraților de peste Prut", după oprirea gazelor rusești: "Avem o datorie morală"|first=Alexandru|last=Toader|publisher=Pro TV|date=2 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> On 4 January, Borosan announced that Moldova was registering an energy consumption level lower than expected due to the population's receptivity of the authorities' calls to save energy.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://stirileprotv.ro/stiri/actualitate/romania-tine-becul-aprins-in-moldova-basarabenii-se-solidarizeaza-si-reduc-consumul-de-curent-le-multumim.html|title=România ține becul aprins în Moldova, basarabenii se solidarizează și reduc consumul de curent. "Le mulțumim!"|first=Cristian|last=Anton|publisher=Pro TV|date=4 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> | |||
On 5 January, the power cuts in Transnistria were extended to four hours.<ref name=":12" /> The Transnistrian authorities warned that the upper floors in high-rise buildings in Tiraspol and Bender could be left without water as a result of a drop in pressure in the network during the power cuts.<ref name=":13" /> Borosan reported that the power deficit in Transnistria had reached around 30% of consumption, about 65 MW, as people were using ] following the stop of gas supplies to rural areas and businesses and of heating and hot water to cities. He also stated that, apart from Moldovagaz's and Energocom's offer to Tiraspoltransgaz, the Moldovan government already proposed back in December that Tiraspoltransgaz considered buying gas from the Romanian market as well as that Energocom purchased gas so that the Cuciurgan power station could continue to produce electricity; no response was received to either proposal.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://newsmaker.md/ro/nu-avem-niciun-raspuns-chisinaul-despre-solutiile-propuse-tiraspolului-pentru-a-evita-criza-din-regiune/|title="Nu avem niciun răspuns". Chișinăul, despre soluțiile propuse Tiraspolului pentru a evita criza din regiune|first=Mihaela|last=Conovali|newspaper=NewsMaker|date=5 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> Transnistria's Ministry of Health stated that, the previous day, over 500 people presented to ] in Tiraspol and Bender with ], of whom a dozen were hospitalised. Isolated cases of ] were also reported.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://novostipmr.com/ru/news/25-01-05/v-stolice-rastet-chislo-zabolevshih-prostudnymi-zabolevaniyami|title=В столице растет число заболевших простудными заболеваниями|newspaper=Novosti Pridnestrovya|date=5 January 2025|language=ru}}</ref> Furthermore, the villages of ] and ], under Moldovan government control, were also affected by the power cuts in Transnistria, as they were connected to the Transnistrian energy system.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.veridica.md/stiri/regiunea-transnistreana-in-frig-si-intuneric|title=Regiunea transnistreană, în frig și întuneric|newspaper=Veridica|date=5 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> | |||
On 3 January, Moldova's National Agency for Energy Regulation (ANRE) increased electricity tariffs for Premier Energy consumers in the centre and south of the country by 75% (from 2.34 to 4.10 lei per ]) and for FEE-Nord consumers in the north by 65% (from 2.84 to 4.68 lei per kWh). Heating tariffs were also increased by 38% in Chișinău, 17% in Bălți and 12% in ]. The ] announced it would compensate the increase in energy tariffs to those who had already submitted compensation requests.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://newsmaker.md/rus/novosti/veernye-otklyucheniya-v-pridnestrove-i-vzlet-tarifov-na-pravom-beregu-glavnoe-ob-energokrizise-v-moldove-na-3-yanvarya/|title=Веерные отключения в Приднестровье и взлет тарифов на Правом берегу. Главное об энергокризисе в Молдове на 3 января|first=Nikolay|last=Pakholnitsky|newspaper=NewsMaker|date=3 January 2025|language=ru}}</ref> The next day, ], the ], called on the Moldovan government to compensate for the damages caused to Bălți by its "incompetent policies" regarding energy security in the face of increased electricity and heating tariffs.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://noi.md/md/societate/primarul-municipiului-balti-a-cerut-guvernului-compensarea-prejudiciilor-aduse-orasului-din-cauza-politicii-incompetente-in-domeniul-energetic|title=Primarul municipiului Bălți a cerut guvernului compensarea prejudiciilor aduse orașului din cauza politicii incompetente în domeniul energetic|newspaper=Noi.md|date=4 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> | |||
⚫ | On the same day, Transnistria's ] reported that a retired couple had died in ] from ] after leaving a ] on and going to sleep. Since the beginning of the year, other two people in ], one in ] and one in ] had suffered CO poisoning as the ministry reported.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://novostipmr.com/ru/news/25-01-05/s-nachala-goda-v-pridnestrove-6-chelovek-otravilis-ugarnym-gazom-2|title=С начала года в Приднестровье 6 человек отравились угарным газом, 2 из них умерли|newspaper=Novosti Pridnestrovya|date=5 January 2025|language=ru}}</ref> | ||
The villages of ] and ] were also affected by the power cuts in Transnistria, as they were connected to the Transnistrian energy system.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.veridica.md/stiri/regiunea-transnistreana-in-frig-si-intuneric|title=Regiunea transnistreană, în frig și întuneric|newspaper=Veridica|date=5 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> All Moldovan-held villages connected to the Transnistrian energy system, more than a dozen in the districts of ], ] and ], were disconnected on 6 January.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2025/01/6/7492260/|title=Молдова терміново відключає свої села від електромереж Придністров'я|first1=Mariya|last1=Yemets|first2=Yevhen|last2=Kizilov|newspaper=]|date=6 January 2025|language=uk}}</ref> Works to reconnect these villages to the right bank of the Dniester's gas supply system would be a lengthy process, making it likely that these villages would remain without gas for the winter.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://stiri.md/article/economic/cand-ar-putea-fi-racordate-la-retelele-moldovagaz-localitatile-din-zona-de-securitate|title=Când ar putea fi racordate la rețelele Moldovagaz localitățile din Zona de Securitate|newspaper=Știri.md|date=6 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> | |||
Moldovan foreign policy presidential adviser Olga Roșca declared to the ] on 1 January that "we're treating this not as an energy crisis but a security crisis", which would have been instigated by Russia to destabilize the country socially and economically and "create demand for a return of pro-Russian forces to power" ahead of the 2025 parliamentary election in Moldova.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy8ymx50kz8o|title=Moldova faces energy crisis as flow of Russian gas ends|first=Sarah|last=Rainsford|author-link=Sarah Rainsford|publisher=]|date=1 January 2025}}</ref> Recean later described the end of Russian gas supplies to Transnistria as a security crisis for Moldova with the aim of allowing a pro-Russian victory in the upcoming parliamentary election and "transforming our territory into a weapon against Ukraine", adding that Russia had "betrayed" and "isolated" Transnistria.<ref name=":15">{{cite news|url=https://www.digi24.ro/stiri/externe/moldova/premierul-rep-moldova-despre-criza-din-transnistria-rusia-arata-rezultatul-inevitabil-pentru-toti-aliatii-sai-tradarea-si-izolarea-3067781|title=Premierul Rep. Moldova, despre criza din Transnistria: Rusia arată rezultatul inevitabil pentru toți aliații săi, trădarea și izolarea|first=Maria|last=Isopescu|publisher=Digi24|date=3 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> | |||
===Moldovan–Transnistrian relations during the crisis=== | |||
On 2 January, Moldovagaz and Energocom offered Tiraspoltransgaz assistance, including technical and commercial support, to organise the purchase of gas from any European gas platform at ].<ref name=":10" /> Tiraspoltransgaz rejected this offer, with the Transnistrian authorities stating that this would entail buying gas at a higher price and that a resumption of gas supplies by Gazprom was expected in virtue of the contract expiring in 2026.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.ipn.md/ro/tiraspolul-refuza-ajutorul-moldovagaz-si-energocom-asteapta-livrari-de-7966_1110541.html|title=Tiraspolul refuză ajutorul Moldovagaz și Energocom. Așteaptă livrări de la Gazprom|newspaper=IPN Press Agency|date=3 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> A Moldovan government source declared to the American digital newspaper '']'' that they believed this decision came from Russia rather than from the Transnistrian authorities.<ref name=":11">{{cite news|url=https://www.politico.eu/article/moldovan-separatists-refuse-eu-gas-despite-warnings-humanitarian-crisis-transnistria/|title=Pro-Russian Moldovan separatists refuse EU gas despite humanitarian crisis warnings|first=Gabriel|last=Gavin|newspaper=Politico|date=3 January 2025}}</ref> The next day, the Moldovan government announced it had alternative energy sources (], ]), humanitarian aid and essential medical supplies ready to be sent to Transnistria if the separatist authorities accepted the help.<ref name=":15" /> This offer was also rejected.<ref name=":11" /> Borosan stated on 5 January that apart from Moldovagaz's and Energocom's offer to Tiraspoltransgaz, the Moldovan government already proposed back in December that Tiraspoltransgaz considered buying gas from the Romanian market as well as that Energocom purchased gas so that the Cuciurgan power station could continue to produce electricity; no response was received to either proposal.<ref name=":16" /> | |||
Krasnoselsky said on 6 January that it was a lie that Transnistria had rejected help from Moldova, that no offers had been received from it or any other country and that Moldova's goal was to "strangle" Transnistria;<ref>{{cite news|url=https://novostipmr.com/ru/news/25-01-06/prezident-pmr-o-yakoby-predlozhenii-moldovy-pomoch-v-energokrizise|title=Президент ПМР о якобы предложении РМ помочь в энергокризисе: "Ложь всё это"|newspaper=Novosti Pridnestrovya|date=6 January 2025|language=ru}}</ref> Moldova's reintegration bureau reiterated that Transnistria rejected Moldovan offers of help in response.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2025/01/6/7201930/|title=Кишинів відповів на заяви "лідера" Придністров'я щодо допомоги з закупівлею газу|first=Oleh|last=Pavlyuk|newspaper=European Pravda|date=6 January 2025|language=uk}}</ref> Furthermore, the {{ill|Embassy of Russia, Chișinău|lt=Russian embassy in Chișinău|ro|Ambasada Rusiei în Republica Moldova|ru|Посольство России в Молдавии}} stated that Transnistria's situation had been created by the West and Ukraine, that some Moldovan "hot-heads" were proposing to resolve the conflict by force and that these actions "will not go unanswered".<ref>{{cite news|url=https://newsmaker.md/ro/ambasada-rusiei-despre-situatia-din-regiunea-transnistreana-astfel-de-actiuni-nu-vor-ramane-fara-raspuns/|title=Ambasada Rusiei, despre situația din regiunea transnistreană: "Astfel de acțiuni nu vor rămâne fără răspuns"|first=Anatol|last=Cibotari|newspaper=NewsMaker|date=6 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> Moldova's ] summoned Russian ambassador {{ill|Oleg Ozerov (diplomat)|lt=Oleg Ozerov|ru|Озеров, Олег Борисович}} as a result and called the embassy's statements "a cynical attempt to manipulate public opinion" and blame Moldova and Ukraine, when responsibility for the crisis would fall only on Russia.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.digi24.ro/stiri/externe/ministerul-afacerilor-externe-al-republicii-moldova-l-a-convocat-pe-trimisul-lui-putin-la-chisinau-care-este-motivul-3070375|title=Ministerul Afacerilor Externe al Republicii Moldova l-a convocat pe trimisul lui Putin la Chișinău. Care este motivul|first=Alexandru|last=Rotaru|publisher=Digi24|date=6 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> After the Russian embassy's declarations, the reintegration bureau stated that "we have every reason to believe that a scenario of destabilization of the situation in the country is being followed",<ref>{{cite news|url=https://stiri.md/article/politica/biroul-de-reintegrare-se-urmareste-un-scenariu-de-destabilizare-in-tara/|title=Biroul de reintegrare: Se urmărește un scenariu de destabilizare în țară|newspaper=Știri.md|date=6 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> while Recean reiterated that Moldova sought a peaceful reintegration of the country, to commence with the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2025/01/6/7492267/|title=Прем'єр Молдови: Наша мета – реінтегрувати Придністров'я з виведенням військ РФ та миротворцями|first1=Serhii|last1=Sydorenko|first2=Yevhen|last2=Kizilov|newspaper=Ukrainska Pravda|date=6 January 2025|language=uk}}</ref> | |||
===Humanitarian situation=== | |||
After the end of the Russian gas supplies to Transnistria, the energy company Tirasteploenergo urged Transnistrian residents to dress warmly, gather family members together in a single room, hang ]s or thick ]s over windows and balcony doors and use electric heaters, stating that it was forbidden to use ] or ] to heat the apartment, as "this can lead to tragedy".<ref name=":5">{{cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/01/breakaway-moldovan-region-cuts-heating-and-hot-water-as-russia-stops-gas-flow|title=Russian gas flows to Europe via Ukraine cease as transit agreement expires|first=Shaun|last=Walker|author-link=Shaun Walker (journalist)|newspaper=]|date=1 January 2025}}</ref> Three dozen heating and temporary accommodation points were equipped across Transnistria, ready to accommodate 1,325 people.<ref name=":7" /> The temperature in Tiraspol was set to drop to {{convert|1|C|F}} on the night of 1 January.<ref name=":6" /> | |||
The day of the end of the supplies, 131 schools, 147 kindergartens and 130 administrative buildings were disconnected from heating.<ref name=":7" /> 40 kindergartens were kept heated, which would accommodate children whose parents were involved in mitigating the energy crisis. Schools were mandated to switch to ], similar to during the ], after the ] holidays.<ref name=":9">{{cite news|url=https://esp.md/ru/sobytiya/2025/01/02/my-znali-i-gotovilis-vadim-krasnoselskiy-ob-energeticheskom-krizise-v|title="Мы знали и готовились": Вадим Красносельский об энергетическом кризисе в Приднестровье|first=Oksana|last=Andrushchak|newspaper=Gazeta SP|date=2 January 2025|language=ru}}</ref> The holidays were later extended, pupils would return to class on 20 January.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://newsmaker.md/ro/vacanta-scolara-prelungita-si-intreruperi-de-curent-programate-localitatile-care-raman-fara-lumina/|title=Vacanța școlară prelungită și întreruperi de curent programate. Localitățile din Transnistria fără curent|first=Anatol|last=Cibotari|newspaper=NewsMaker|date=6 January 2025|language=ro}}</ref> | |||
⚫ | On 5 January, Transnistria's Ministry of Health stated that, the previous day, over 500 people presented to ] in Tiraspol and Bender with ], of whom a dozen were hospitalised. Isolated cases of ] were also reported.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://novostipmr.com/ru/news/25-01-05/v-stolice-rastet-chislo-zabolevshih-prostudnymi-zabolevaniyami|title=В столице растет число заболевших простудными заболеваниями|newspaper=Novosti Pridnestrovya|date=5 January 2025|language=ru}}</ref> On the same day, Transnistria's ] reported that a retired couple had died in ] from ] after leaving a ] on and going to sleep. Since the beginning of the year, other two people in ], one in ] and one in ] had suffered CO poisoning as the ministry reported.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://novostipmr.com/ru/news/25-01-05/s-nachala-goda-v-pridnestrove-6-chelovek-otravilis-ugarnym-gazom-2|title=С начала года в Приднестровье 6 человек отравились угарным газом, 2 из них умерли|newspaper=Novosti Pridnestrovya|date=5 January 2025|language=ru}}</ref> | ||
==Analysis== | ==Analysis== | ||
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According to ], Moldova's ], the energy crisis caused by the end of Russian gas exports to Transnistria could cause a "much more complicated" situation than that caused by the ]. As he stated, Transnistria's population could face a humanitarian crisis, as it could be left without gas, coal, and electricity.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.ziarulnational.md/federatia-rusa-intentioneaza-sa-declanseze-o-criza-umanitara-in-transnistria-guvernul-cere-parlamentului-instituirea-starii-de-urgenta-in-r-moldova-pentru-60-de-zile-incepand-cu-16-decembrie/|title=Federația Rusă intenționează să declanșeze o criză umanitară în Transnistria: Guvernul de la Chișinău cere Parlamentului instituirea STĂRII de URGENȚĂ în R. Moldova pentru 60 de zile, începând cu 16 decembrie|newspaper=Ziarul Național|date=11 December 2024|language=ro}}</ref> On his part, Recean stated that Transnistrians could remain without heat and electricity, which could turn into a humanitarian catastrophe. Some 300,000 people lived in Transnistria at the time according to him;<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.digi24.ro/stiri/externe/republica-moldova-anunta-ca-oprirea-gazelor-rusesti-catre-transnistria-devine-un-scenariu-foarte-realist-3023431|title=Republica Moldova anunță că oprirea gazelor rusești către Transnistria devine un scenariu "foarte realist"|publisher=Digi24|date=27 November 2024|language=ro}}</ref> over 90% of them had Moldovan citizenship according to Serebrian.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://stiri.md/article/politica/serebrian-despre-criza-gazului-din-transnistria-moldova-nu-are-nicio-vina/|title=Serebrian, despre criza gazului din Transnistria: Moldova nu are nicio vină|newspaper=Știri.md|date=26 December 2024|language=ro}}</ref> | According to ], Moldova's ], the energy crisis caused by the end of Russian gas exports to Transnistria could cause a "much more complicated" situation than that caused by the ]. As he stated, Transnistria's population could face a humanitarian crisis, as it could be left without gas, coal, and electricity.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.ziarulnational.md/federatia-rusa-intentioneaza-sa-declanseze-o-criza-umanitara-in-transnistria-guvernul-cere-parlamentului-instituirea-starii-de-urgenta-in-r-moldova-pentru-60-de-zile-incepand-cu-16-decembrie/|title=Federația Rusă intenționează să declanșeze o criză umanitară în Transnistria: Guvernul de la Chișinău cere Parlamentului instituirea STĂRII de URGENȚĂ în R. Moldova pentru 60 de zile, începând cu 16 decembrie|newspaper=Ziarul Național|date=11 December 2024|language=ro}}</ref> On his part, Recean stated that Transnistrians could remain without heat and electricity, which could turn into a humanitarian catastrophe. Some 300,000 people lived in Transnistria at the time according to him;<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.digi24.ro/stiri/externe/republica-moldova-anunta-ca-oprirea-gazelor-rusesti-catre-transnistria-devine-un-scenariu-foarte-realist-3023431|title=Republica Moldova anunță că oprirea gazelor rusești către Transnistria devine un scenariu "foarte realist"|publisher=Digi24|date=27 November 2024|language=ro}}</ref> over 90% of them had Moldovan citizenship according to Serebrian.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://stiri.md/article/politica/serebrian-despre-criza-gazului-din-transnistria-moldova-nu-are-nicio-vina/|title=Serebrian, despre criza gazului din Transnistria: Moldova nu are nicio vină|newspaper=Știri.md|date=26 December 2024|language=ro}}</ref> | ||
Ukrainian journalist Serhii Sydorenko argued in an article for '']'' that the end of free Russian gas supplies to Transnistria would cause the disappearance of most of Transnistria's revenues and the collapse of its public budget. This would jeopardize the continuation of below-the-market prices for gas, electricity and heating for the Transnistrian population. The strong reduction of revenue and the new costs that would appear as a result of the energy crisis would not allow it to be mitigated through ] measures. Furthermore, a shortage of energy resources would aggravate the humanitarian crisis; problems with fuel needed for heating could generate a severe social and economic disaster in the region according to Sydorenko. One of the first consequences of this, he argued, could be a rapid outflow of people, especially young and working-age people, from Transnistria, further exacerbating the region's administrative and budgetary crisis. He considered the prospect of Transnistria closing its "borders" to stop this outflow impossible.<ref name=":2">{{cite news|url=https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/10/11/7195994/|title=Forcible reintegration of Moldova: potential causes and consequences of rapid Transnistrian regime fall|first=Serhii|last=Sydorenko|newspaper=European Pravda|date=11 October 2024}}</ref> | Ukrainian journalist Serhii Sydorenko argued in an article for '']'' that the end of free Russian gas supplies to Transnistria would cause the disappearance of most of Transnistria's revenues and the collapse of its public budget. This would jeopardize the continuation of below-the-market prices for gas, electricity and heating for the Transnistrian population. The strong reduction of revenue and the new costs that would appear as a result of the energy crisis would not allow it to be mitigated through ] measures. Furthermore, a shortage of energy resources would aggravate the humanitarian crisis; problems with fuel needed for heating could generate a severe social and economic disaster in the region according to Sydorenko. One of the first consequences of this, he argued, could be a rapid outflow of people, especially young and working-age people, from Transnistria, further exacerbating the region's administrative and budgetary crisis. He considered the prospect of Transnistria closing its "borders" to stop this outflow impossible.<ref name=":2">{{cite news|url=https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/10/11/7195994/|title=Forcible reintegration of Moldova: potential causes and consequences of rapid Transnistrian regime fall|first=Serhii|last=Sydorenko|newspaper=]|date=11 October 2024}}</ref> | ||
===Geopolitical implications=== | ===Geopolitical implications=== |
Revision as of 15:55, 7 January 2025
On 31 December 2024, at 19:50 EET (17:50 UTC), Moldova's unrecognized breakaway region of Transnistria stopped receiving natural gas supplies from Russia when Ukraine's gas transit deal with Russia expired. Historically, Transnistria had covered most of Moldova's electricity needs through the Cuciurgan power station, which functioned with Russian gas supplied to Transnistria for free. However, with the termination of Russian gas supplies to Transnistria and the end of Moldovan purchases of Transnistrian electricity, the possibility of a humanitarian crisis in Transnistria has arisen, which could even lead to the collapse of the breakaway state and its reintegration into Moldova.
Background
Transnistria is an unrecognized breakaway state internationally recognized as part of Moldova. It is located mainly on the Moldovan left bank of the Dniester river. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Transnistria War of 1992 sparked between Moldova and the separatists in Transnistria. The latter won with the help of the Russian army present in the region, which is today organized into the Operational Group of Russian Forces, comprising about 1,500 troops. A majority of Transnistrians speak Russian as their first language, around half of them have Russian citizenship along with the Moldovan one and an internationally unrecognized referendum held in 2006 showed that over 95% of Transnistrians wanted to be annexed into Russia; allegations on irregularities and infringements in the referendum exist.
Ever since Moldova's independence, Moldova relied on the Cuciurgan power station, running on Russian natural gas supplied via Transnistria, to satisfy most of its electricity needs. The Cuciurgan power station is located in Transnistrian-held territory, and Moldova paid millions of euros to Transnistria every year in exchange for electricity at below-the-market prices, effectively financing separatism in its own territory. However, following Maia Sandu's victory in the 2020 Moldovan presidential election, Moldova has approached the European Union (EU), which has helped Moldova reduce its dependence on the Cuciurgan power station. Thus, Moldova planned to satisfy 53% of its electicity needs with power from the station in November 2024, a number that fell to 37% in December 2024. This figure had historically been at 90%.
Prelude
Negotiations with Gazprom and sackings in Moldova
On 5 December 2024, the Prime Minister of Moldova, Dorin Recean, announced that he had requested the resignation of the Minister of Energy, Victor Parlicov, as he was the person responsible for managing the energy sector and "he made mistakes that led us to this situation of crisis". Recean also requested the resignation of two other figures: Victor Bînzari, the general director of Energocom (the national electricity supplier company), as the company "did not manage to secure the gas needs for the winter period at the most advantageous prices"; and Sergiu Tofilat, a member of the supervisory board of Moldovagaz (the national gas supplier company), as he "blocked the procurement of gas by the responsible institutions when the prices were the most affordable". Recean also announced that he would directly assume the role that the energy minister had and that he called for the establishment of a state of emergency in energy starting from 16 December.
On the same day, 26 members of the Parliament of Moldova for the Bloc of Communists and Socialists (BCS), the main opposition party, presented a motion of no confidence against the Recean Cabinet over the energy situation, also calling for early parliamentary elections. Ion Ceban, the Mayor of Chișinău and president of the National Alternative Movement (MAN), called for the resignation of the cabinet and the organisation of early parliamentary elections following Recean's sackings, and so did the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE). The Moldovan parliament rejected the motion on 13 December, with 55 votes against, 18 votes in favor and one abstention, well short of the 55 votes in favor required for a successful motion.
Declarations of states of emergency
On 11 December, Transnistria's legislature, the Supreme Council, approved a state of economic emergency for a period of 30 days as ordered by the President of Transnistria, Vadim Krasnoselsky, in the face of the possible end of gas supplies to Transnistria. This measure foresaw the rationalization of gas consumption, the creation of a reserve of energy resources, the end of the export of energy resources with the exception of electricity and the preservation of human life and health.
The Moldovan parliament approved two days later the establishment of a nation-wide state of emergency for a period of 60 days, which would come into effect on 16 December. 56 of the 101 parliament members voted for its approval. Recean added that this was a necessary measure "so that this winter will be the last in which the Kremlin can threaten our energy security" and that "energy blackmail" would end with the completion of a high-voltage line between Chișinău and Romania, at the time under construction. Following this, the Romanian energy minister, Sebastian Burduja, announced that Romania would help Moldova overcome the energy crisis and that the Romanian energy companies Nuclearelectrica and Hidroelectrica were already in talks with Energocom to explore options to supply additional electricity to Moldova.
Gazprom's confirmation of the end of gas supplies
On 23 December, the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia (SVR RF) alleged that President of Moldova Sandu had asked for a plan to take the Cuciurgan power station and Transnistria as a whole by force, that was no guarantee that she would not start a war in the region and that she "is out of her mind". Gazprom formally notified Moldovagaz on 28 December that gas supplies to Moldova would be completely stopped on 1 January 2025 at 08:00 MSK (07:00 in Moldova, 05:00 UTC). Gazprom cited Moldovagaz's alleged failure to fulfill its payment obligations under the contract as the reason, and it stated that it retained the right to completely terminate the agreement between the two and to demand compensations from Moldovagaz. In response, Recean announced that Moldova would not accept any debt invalidated by the international audit and that Russia was using energy as a political weapon. On the same day, Tiraspoltransgaz, Transnistria's largest gas supplier company, cut off the gas supply to several buildings of the Moldovan authorities in the Security Zone and in the city of Bender (Tighina).
Also on the same day, the opposition Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM), led by former president Igor Dodon, called on the government, which it blamed for the crisis, to try to find solutions regarding the problem of the debt demanded by Gazprom and to re-establish dialogue with Russia to continue the supply of gas and prevent a humanitarian crisis. Recean condemned this call, denied the existence of Gazprom's demanded debt and referred to the Socialists as "political speculators of the Kremlin". Parliament member Radu Marian, of the incumbent Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), referred to the Socialists' behavior as traitorous for Moldova.
On 30 December, Sandu announced that the Moldovan government and its partners had developed a plan to provide humanitarian aid to the citizens in Transnistria. She later stated that the Transnistrian authorities had rejected help from Moldova. The Moldovan government increased compensation payments for the increase in energy prices for the period between December 2024 and March 2025. Thus, in December, 500 million Moldovan lei would be used to compensate about 670,000 beneficiaries. The Moldovan authorities accused Russia of trying to destabilise the country through energy blackmail in order to influence the 2025 Moldovan parliamentary election and undermine Moldova's path towards Europe. Recean asked the Minister of Justice, Veronica Mihailov-Moraru, to prepare the legislative changes that would allow for the nationalization of Moldovagaz, of which at that time Gazprom owned half of all shares, Transnistria 13% and the Moldovan government 35.6%.
On 31 December, Bulgaria's energy minister, Vladimir Malinov [pl], declared that Bulgaria would help Moldova by providing the country with access to liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as through the public supplier company Bulgargaz, if Moldova requested it. Furthermore, Moldova's energy ministry announced that Energocom planned to cover 38% of Moldova's electricity needs for January 2025 from local production (over 127,000 megawatt-hours or 28% from the thermal power stations in Chișinău and Bălți, 46,000 MWh or 10% from renewable energy) and that the remaining 62% would be imported from Romania (over 178,000 MWh or 39% from OPCOM [el; ro]'s electricity market, 105,000 MWh or 23% from bilateral contracts).
Crisis
In Transnistria
On 1 January 2025, at 07:00 EET (05:00 UTC), Ukraine stopped the transit of Russian gas to Europe through its territory. The supply of gas to Transnistria through Ukraine stopped earlier, on 31 December at 19:50 EET (17:50 UTC). As a result, heating and hot water were cut off in Transnistria. An exception was made for healthcare and residential care facilities. Gas supplies were suspended for the private sector and rural areas, and the use of gas for cooking was permitted until the pressure of the network dropped to a critical level. Transnistrian president Krasnoselsky stated that "we knew about this possibility , prepared for it and were not caught off guard".
The Cuciurgan power station switched from gas to coal for power generation exactly at midnight on 1 January. Coal reserves would reportedly allow for 50 to 52 days of supply, during which Transnistria was to have guaranteed electricity. However, the Moldovan government's crisis centre reported on 4 January that coal reserves for the power station would only last until the end of January, after which Transnistria would be left without electricity. The Dubăsari Dam would remain operational in such case, but its production capacity was much lower, of 24 MWh at that moment. Regarding gas reserves, Transnistria's amounted to 13 million cubic metres (460 million cubic feet) as of 1 January, enough for 10 days in the north of the region and 20 days in the south, only to be used for cooking and not for heating.
According to Transnistria's Minister of Economic Development, Sergey Obolonik [ru], as of 2 January, almost 75,000 households had been disconnected from the supply of gas, while 116,000 would receive a limited amount of gas for the moment. He assured that electricity tariffs would not increase for the Transnistrian population despite the energy crisis. On 6 January, Prime Minister of Transnistria, Aleksandr Rozenberg, stated that 122 settlements were completely cut off from the gas supply, including 51,507 rural households, over 20,000 urban households and 1,800 legal entities and entrepreneurs. Furthermore, on 4 January, one of Tiraspol's districts was left without water. The next day, the Transnistrian authorities warned that the upper floors in high-rise buildings in Tiraspol and Bender could be left without water as a result of a drop in pressure in the network during the power cuts, and several settlements in Slobozia District were cut off from water.
On 1 January, production facilities and hundreds of businesses put their operations on hold, leaving thousands of people unemployed. The next day, Obolonik stated that all industrial enterprises in Transnistria had stopped their activities, with the exception of those necessary to maintain food security in the breakaway state. He warned of "irreversible changes" as "enterprises will lose the ability to start up" if the gas problem was not resolved soon. On 4 January, Moldova Steel Works director Serghei Kornev stated that the steel plant in Rîbnița had ceased operations and could not be reactivated in the near future, leaving over 2,000 workers unemployed and creating risks for the Transnistrian economy.
Power cuts were first introduced on 3 January, lasting one hour, to be rotated between four groups of different regions of the republic at distinct hours, as the energy system would not be producing enough electricity to meet the population's consumption level. They were extended to three hours on 4 January and to four hours on 5 January. Constantin Borosan, secretary of state of Moldova's energy ministry, reported on 5 January that the power deficit in Transnistria had reached around 30% of consumption, about 65 megawatts, as people were using electric heaters following the stop of gas supplies to rural areas and businesses and of heating and hot water to cities. According to him, the 30% power deficit could provoke a complete collapse of the region's power system. The power cuts in Transnistria were extended yet again on 7 January to eight hours, two separate cuts of four hours each.
In the rest of Moldova
Electricity supplies to Moldova from the Cuciurgan power station stopped completely on 1 January. Moldova's Termoelectrica company put the CET-1 power station [ro; ru; uk] in operation that day. It produced 6 MW, while the CET-2 power station [ro; ru; uk] produced 174–175 MW. Throughout the energy crisis, the CET-Nord power station [ro; ru; uk] and the Stânca–Costești Hydroelectric Station [ro; ru] also helped Moldova produce electricity.
According to Energocom, the deficit of the electricity system in government-held Moldova was about 600 MW as of 1 January, to be covered not only from the Romanian electricity market and bilateral contracts, but also from Ukraine's Energoatom state-owned energy company. Electricity imported from Romania arrived via the Isaccea–Vulcănești line. The volume of gas exports from Romania to Moldova, carried out primarily through the Iași–Chișinău pipeline, reached a record level of 5 million m (180 million cu ft) of gas on 3 January. Romanian energy minister Burduja had declared the previous day "I consider that we have a moral duty to stand by our brothers across the Prut with everything possible". On 4 January, Borosan announced that Moldova was registering an energy consumption level lower than expected due to the population's receptivity of the authorities' calls to save energy.
On 3 January, Moldova's National Agency for Energy Regulation (ANRE) increased electricity tariffs for Premier Energy consumers in the centre and south of the country by 75% (from 2.34 to 4.10 lei per kilowatt-hour) and for FEE-Nord consumers in the north by 65% (from 2.84 to 4.68 lei per kWh). Heating tariffs were also increased by 38% in Chișinău, 17% in Bălți and 12% in Comrat. The Ministry of Labour and Social Protection announced it would compensate the increase in energy tariffs to those who had already submitted compensation requests. The next day, Alexandr Petkov, the Mayor of Bălți, called on the Moldovan government to compensate for the damages caused to Bălți by its "incompetent policies" regarding energy security in the face of increased electricity and heating tariffs.
The villages of Copanca and Varnița were also affected by the power cuts in Transnistria, as they were connected to the Transnistrian energy system. All Moldovan-held villages connected to the Transnistrian energy system, more than a dozen in the districts of Anenii Noi, Căușeni and Dubasari, were disconnected on 6 January. Works to reconnect these villages to the right bank of the Dniester's gas supply system would be a lengthy process, making it likely that these villages would remain without gas for the winter.
Moldovan foreign policy presidential adviser Olga Roșca declared to the BBC on 1 January that "we're treating this not as an energy crisis but a security crisis", which would have been instigated by Russia to destabilize the country socially and economically and "create demand for a return of pro-Russian forces to power" ahead of the 2025 parliamentary election in Moldova. Recean later described the end of Russian gas supplies to Transnistria as a security crisis for Moldova with the aim of allowing a pro-Russian victory in the upcoming parliamentary election and "transforming our territory into a weapon against Ukraine", adding that Russia had "betrayed" and "isolated" Transnistria.
Moldovan–Transnistrian relations during the crisis
On 2 January, Moldovagaz and Energocom offered Tiraspoltransgaz assistance, including technical and commercial support, to organise the purchase of gas from any European gas platform at market price. Tiraspoltransgaz rejected this offer, with the Transnistrian authorities stating that this would entail buying gas at a higher price and that a resumption of gas supplies by Gazprom was expected in virtue of the contract expiring in 2026. A Moldovan government source declared to the American digital newspaper Politico that they believed this decision came from Russia rather than from the Transnistrian authorities. The next day, the Moldovan government announced it had alternative energy sources (biomass systems, generators), humanitarian aid and essential medical supplies ready to be sent to Transnistria if the separatist authorities accepted the help. This offer was also rejected. Borosan stated on 5 January that apart from Moldovagaz's and Energocom's offer to Tiraspoltransgaz, the Moldovan government already proposed back in December that Tiraspoltransgaz considered buying gas from the Romanian market as well as that Energocom purchased gas so that the Cuciurgan power station could continue to produce electricity; no response was received to either proposal.
Krasnoselsky said on 6 January that it was a lie that Transnistria had rejected help from Moldova, that no offers had been received from it or any other country and that Moldova's goal was to "strangle" Transnistria; Moldova's reintegration bureau reiterated that Transnistria rejected Moldovan offers of help in response. Furthermore, the Russian embassy in Chișinău [ro; ru] stated that Transnistria's situation had been created by the West and Ukraine, that some Moldovan "hot-heads" were proposing to resolve the conflict by force and that these actions "will not go unanswered". Moldova's Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Russian ambassador Oleg Ozerov [ru] as a result and called the embassy's statements "a cynical attempt to manipulate public opinion" and blame Moldova and Ukraine, when responsibility for the crisis would fall only on Russia. After the Russian embassy's declarations, the reintegration bureau stated that "we have every reason to believe that a scenario of destabilization of the situation in the country is being followed", while Recean reiterated that Moldova sought a peaceful reintegration of the country, to commence with the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria.
Humanitarian situation
After the end of the Russian gas supplies to Transnistria, the energy company Tirasteploenergo urged Transnistrian residents to dress warmly, gather family members together in a single room, hang blankets or thick curtains over windows and balcony doors and use electric heaters, stating that it was forbidden to use gas or electric stoves to heat the apartment, as "this can lead to tragedy". Three dozen heating and temporary accommodation points were equipped across Transnistria, ready to accommodate 1,325 people. The temperature in Tiraspol was set to drop to 1 °C (34 °F) on the night of 1 January.
The day of the end of the supplies, 131 schools, 147 kindergartens and 130 administrative buildings were disconnected from heating. 40 kindergartens were kept heated, which would accommodate children whose parents were involved in mitigating the energy crisis. Schools were mandated to switch to distance learning, similar to during the COVID-19 pandemic, after the New Year holidays. The holidays were later extended, pupils would return to class on 20 January.
On 5 January, Transnistria's Ministry of Health stated that, the previous day, over 500 people presented to outpatient centres in Tiraspol and Bender with fever, of whom a dozen were hospitalised. Isolated cases of hypothermia were also reported. On the same day, Transnistria's Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that a retired couple had died in Cioborciu from carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning after leaving a stove on and going to sleep. Since the beginning of the year, other two people in Dubăsari, one in Grigoriopol and one in Caragaș had suffered CO poisoning as the ministry reported.
Analysis
Potential humanitarian crisis in Transnistria
According to Oleg Serebrian, Moldova's Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration, the energy crisis caused by the end of Russian gas exports to Transnistria could cause a "much more complicated" situation than that caused by the 2022–2023 Moldovan energy crisis. As he stated, Transnistria's population could face a humanitarian crisis, as it could be left without gas, coal, and electricity. On his part, Recean stated that Transnistrians could remain without heat and electricity, which could turn into a humanitarian catastrophe. Some 300,000 people lived in Transnistria at the time according to him; over 90% of them had Moldovan citizenship according to Serebrian.
Ukrainian journalist Serhii Sydorenko argued in an article for European Pravda that the end of free Russian gas supplies to Transnistria would cause the disappearance of most of Transnistria's revenues and the collapse of its public budget. This would jeopardize the continuation of below-the-market prices for gas, electricity and heating for the Transnistrian population. The strong reduction of revenue and the new costs that would appear as a result of the energy crisis would not allow it to be mitigated through austerity measures. Furthermore, a shortage of energy resources would aggravate the humanitarian crisis; problems with fuel needed for heating could generate a severe social and economic disaster in the region according to Sydorenko. One of the first consequences of this, he argued, could be a rapid outflow of people, especially young and working-age people, from Transnistria, further exacerbating the region's administrative and budgetary crisis. He considered the prospect of Transnistria closing its "borders" to stop this outflow impossible.
Geopolitical implications
Main article: Reintegration of Transnistria into MoldovaAccording to Sydorenko, the humanitarian crisis that could arise from the end of Russian gas supplies to Transnistria would lead to a rapid collapse of the separatist regime. Transnistria would be forced to negotiate a reintegration back into Moldova, which could happen quickly if the Moldovan authorities showed flexibility. Parlicov expressed similar hopes; in a TV8 programme on 27 November 2024, he stated that the region could be reintegrated by 2026 if Moldova established a good interaction with the Transnistrian authorities.
Sydorenko argued that Moldova would not lack financial and expert assistance from Western partners to tackle the crisis. For the West, the costs would be moderate given the region's small size and population. Furthermore, the West could regard this project as a chance to generate a model of reintegration for the Russian-occupied territories of Georgia and Ukraine. Ukraine's case in particular would pose significantly larger and more complex problems than Transnistria's reintegration, and the West could be interested in using Transnistria as a "testing ground" for its approaches and theories before treating Ukraine's more complex case.
In an article for the Harvard International Review, Lizzie Place noted that the Moldovan government could theoretically cut off all energy payments to Transnistria to put pressure on the region to reintegrate. However, the economic collapse and humanitarian crisis this would pose for its own citizens would make it hesitant to implement such a scenario, she considered. Moldovan scholar Ion Marandici regarded a gradual decrease in energy payments to Transnistria coupled with humanitarian assistance for residents as a more realistic scenario for reintegration.
Russian disinformation
See also: Russian disinformationIn the face of the possible crisis in Transnistria, Russian propagandists and influence agents stepped up accusations against Moldova's leadership. These accusations included narratives that Sandu had ordered and prepared a military takeover of Transnistria, that she had refused to discuss with Ukraine the continuation of the transit of gas, that Moldova would take "revenge" on Transnistria if Russia refused to continue supplying gas to Moldova and that the EU would be passive or even tacitly supportive of a new crisis in Russia's sphere of influence.
Following the SVR RF's 23 December 2024 intelligence report, Russian state-owned news agency TASS stated on Telegram that the EU did not know how to calm "emotionally unstable" Sandu, who was preparing a military intervention into Transnistria. Russian state-owned news agencies RT and RIA Novosti also shared on Telegram the information in the SVR RF's report; as of 25 December, TASS' publication garnered nearly 62,000 views on the platform, RT's gained over 222,000 and RIA Novosti's gained over 633,000. Moldovan fugitive oligarch and politician Ilan Shor made use of the SVR RF's report, stating that he had already warned multiple times that Moldova was getting into the same "scheme" that had been "implemented" in Ukraine, that "Sandu will flee, and ordinary people will suffer" and that "we have to stop her before it is too late". For his part, Russian State Duma member Aleksey Zhuravlyov declared that Sandu was "emotionally unstable", "completely incapable of negotiating", "incapable of independent thought" and that she "only follows the orders of her Western puppeteers", threatening that Russia would defend Transnistria from a Moldovan attack, for which both should be prepared.
The report, the news agencies' publications and Shor's post were reposted by dozens of pro-Russian Telegram channels, gaining tens of thousands of views. These included Молдавский Vагон (Moldavskiy Vagon, "Moldovan Wagon"), belonging to Moldovan politologist and PSRM parliament member Bogdan Țîrdea [ro; ru]; he later also published the Moldovan authorities' denial of the accusations. Russian Telegram channel Политджойстик / Politjoystic threatened "Does Sandu want us to launch missile strikes against decision-making centres in Moldova?", and stated that "military diplomacy" was more convincing than peaceful diplomacy; the post gained 48,000 views as of 25 December. 154,000 views were gained as of the same day by a post of the channel Lomovka, which accused Sandu of "taking the gas from the people" and wanting to form a military coalition with Western support to "capture" Transnistria. Гражданин (Grazhdanin, "Citizen") alleged that Romania would help Sandu attack Transnistria, while Военная хроника (Voyennaya khronika, "War Chronicle") reported that an attack on Transnistria could seek to disrupt or delay peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and accuse Russia of a new aggression. Russian analyst Yuri Baranchik declared in his Telegram channel that it would be necessary to take Mykolaiv and Odesa from Ukraine to form a land corridor with Transnistria and "restore justice and legality" in Transnistria and Moldova, and that an attack against Transnistria guaranteed a Russian invasion and "deprivation of the statehood" of Moldova.
Adrian Băluțel, the chief of staff of Sandu's presidency, denied accusations that Moldova was preparing an attack against Transnistria, calling them a dangerous hoax meant to spread panic. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the accusations could represent an attempt to set the ground for a Russian false flag operation in Transnistria. They could also have been aimed at disrupting Moldova's accession to the EU by destabilising it, the ISW stated. Moldovan analyst Andrei Curăraru stated that the accusations were part of a destabilization plan and that they could be preceding several possible scenarios: an incident fabricated by Russia at the Cuciurgan power station to justify an intervention in Transnistria; extra accusations blaming Moldova of sabotaging Transnistria's energy to cause further hostility between the two and divert attention from Russia's failures; and an intensification of anti-Moldovan propaganda to radicalize the Transnistrian population and hinder any dialogue process.
See also
References
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