| Revision as of 13:32, 1 February 2008 editChochopk (talk | contribs)Extended confirmed users24,497 edits →Opinion polling: add two new polls from TVBS← Previous edit | Revision as of 09:23, 6 February 2008 edit undoShihRyanJ (talk | contribs)43 edits →IssuesNext edit → | ||
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| Since selecting Vincent Siew as his running mate, Ma Ying-jeou has announced that the chief issue of this election would be the recovery of Taiwanese economy. He has said that the independence-reunification debate is a "fake issue" with no bearing on the general welfare of the Taiwanese people. He also labeled Siew as the would-be "chief architect" to revive the economy, because of Siew's solid economic background. | Since selecting Vincent Siew as his running mate, Ma Ying-jeou has announced that the chief issue of this election would be the recovery of Taiwanese economy. He has said that the independence-reunification debate is a "fake issue" with no bearing on the general welfare of the Taiwanese people. He also labeled Siew as the would-be "chief architect" to revive the economy, because of Siew's solid economic background. | ||
| Finally a recent issue has surfaced regarding the integrity and crisis management capabilities of Ma Ying-jeuo. In January 2008, the DPP accused candidate ] of having a United States ]. Initially, Ma responded by saying that no one in his family has a ], but later recanted to state that he had had a green as a student, that his wife also had had a ], and that one of his daughters is a native-born US citizen. Ma Ying-jeuo, however, believes that his green card had expired when he applied for a non-immigrant visa, which is actually incorrect under Title X of the United States Code. Many in Taiwan have pointed to this incorrect interpretation of law as evidence that Ma was never a real student of law but instead spent his days in the US spying on other Taiwanese students. Ma also produced an unverified page of a passport which showed that he had not gone to the United States for over 1-year between 1992 and 1994, which he further claims validates his claim that his ] expired. However, again Ma Ying-jeuo's legal interpretation has again been called into doubt since absence from the United States for over 1-year only gives the US government the right to revoke a ], but does not automatically revoke a ]. Moreover, Ma Ying-jeuo has failed to produced his complete passport and instead is relying on a photocopy of a passport - not necessarily his - to justify his claims. The issue is currently in dispute and has led to a general decline in Ma's opinion polls with respect to his integrity and his handling of a crisis situation. In fact, many in Taiwan have joked that the reason Ma doesn't have a ] is because he has already surrendered it when he received his US naturalization certificate when he became a US citizen. | |||
| ==Opinion polling== | ==Opinion polling== | ||
Revision as of 09:23, 6 February 2008
Legislative Yuan elections held on January 12, 2008, see Republic of China legislative election, 2008.
The Election for the 12th-term President and Vice-President of the Republic of China (simplified Chinese: 第十二任中华民国总统副总统选举; traditional Chinese: 第十二任中華民國總統副總統選舉) will be held in the Republic of China (Taiwan) on Saturday, March 22, 2008.
This is the fourth direct election for the President of the Republic of China. The two major candidates are Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Frank Hsieh and Kuomintang (KMT) nominee Ma Ying-jeou; there are no other official candidates nominated by other parties thus far. The KMT ticket was officially formed as of June 23, 2007, with Ma announcing his choice for running mate to be former premier Vincent Siew. The DPP ticket was announced in August, 2007, with Frank Hsieh selecting former Premier Su Tseng-chang.
Franchise
The election will be by direct popular vote; a simple plurality is required to win. According to the Constitution of the Republic of China, all citizens of the Republic of China of at least 20 years of age and with household registration in the "Free Area of the Republic of China" (Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, Matsu, etc.) will be eligible to vote. There is, however, ongoing discussion on lowering the voting age to 18 years and permitting absentee ballots for Republic of China citizens of the Free Area who reside outside the Free Area (i.e. in mainland China or overseas). Under current law, all voters must travel to their registered precincts to vote.
Presidential nominees
As this is incumbent President Chen Shui-bian's second term, he is barred from running due to term limits. While the election is still more than five months away, the major parties are already going through their candidate nomination and ticket-formation processes. In addition to these, independents Ellen Huang (黃越綏; former National Policy Advisor) and Ko Tsi-hai (柯賜海) also announced their hope to run in the election.
Candidates are to register with their respective parties between March 5-9 for a primary election. Selection of candidates for President in the Republic of China, unlike most other nations, are weighed. The actual primary election results account for 30% of the final outcome while public opinion polls account for the other 70%. Final tallies are announced May 30, 2007.
Pan-Green Coalition
For the Pan-Green Coalition, the Democratic Progressive Party announced that it will announce candidates sometime in February or March. Former premier and Mayor of Kaohsiung Frank Hsieh subsequently announced his bid for the presidency on February 16. The DPP correctly expected the eventual nominee to be one of the "Four Heavenly Kings" (an expression more closely translated into English as the "Four Heavyweights") dubbed by the Taiwanese media, which consist of Hsieh, Su, Lu, and Yu. Three of the heavyweights (Hsieh, Su, and Yu) had held highly visible positions in the Chen administration, rotating between DPP chairman and the premier and in Lu's case she was vice-president throughout the whole administration. On May 6, 2007, former premier Frank Hsieh emerged as the winner of the DPP primaries, winning 17 of 24 cities and counties with 62,849 votes, about 44% of the votes cast. Despite the fact that the primary results only account for 30% of the final outcome in determining the nominee, fellow DPP candidates Su, who got 46,994 votes; Yu, with 22,211 votes; and Lu with 8,666 votes, have all decided to take steps to unite behind Hsieh. The primaries took place in all 24 cities and counties in Taiwan. There were 254,963 eligible voters, with voter turnout at 56.06%.
- File:Democratic Progressive Party of Taiwan flag.svg Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
- Frank Hsieh, former mayor of Kaohsiung City, former premier, former DPP chairman, and most recently the 2006 candidate for Taipei mayor in which he lost; formally declared his candidacy on February 16, 2007; was ahead in most media polls for the DPP primaries. Hsieh won the primary election on May 6, 2007, winning 17 of 24 cities and counties with 62,849 votes. Hsieh selected Su Tseng-chang as his vice-presidential running-mate in August 2007.
Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU)
- There is no word as of yet as to whether or not the Taiwan Solidarity Union will field its own candidate for the Presidency. However, KMT nominee Ma Ying-Jeou met with TSU chairman Shu Chin-Chiang on September 19, with Mr. Shu referring to Ma as "our President-to-be." Shu also indicated that former President Lee did not necessarily support the DPP's Hsieh-Su ticket, further fueling speculation that the TSU may not endorse the DPP ticket outright. Several TSU legislators stated that they will support DPP candidate Frank Hsieh. In December, former President Lee rescinded his support of Chen in 2004, and urged citizens against voting for the DPP in upcoming elections. While Lee openly denounced supporting the ruling DPP party, he stopped short of endorsing any party or candidate.
Pan-Blue Coalition
For the Pan-Blue Coalition:
- The party flag and emblem of the Kuomintang Kuomintang (KMT)
- Ma Ying-jeou, former KMT chairman and former Taipei Mayor, officially announced his candidacy on February 13, 2007; formally named the KMT's candidate on May 2, 2007, final approval of the nomination will be passed by the KMT congress in June. On June 23, 2007, Ma officially announced former premier and former vice-presidential candidate (in 2000) Vincent Siew as his running mate . After Wang Jin-pyng, Ma's initial choice for running mate, declined Ma's offer, several other names, other than Siew, were considered including Wu Tun-yi (吳敦義), incumbent KMT general secretary; Jason Lin, CEO of Uni-President Group; and Tsai Ing-wen, a DPP member and former vice-premier.
People First Party (PFP)
- The People First Party has publicly announced that they would support Ma Ying-jeou as presidential candidate, and will not field its own candidate for election.
- 30.px New Party
- The New Party will support the nominee of the Kuomintang, Ma Ying-Jeou, and will not field its own candidate for election.
_logo.svg){kind=link}
Issues with internal dissensions within the two camps
The ability of the Pan-Blue Coalition to name a unified ticket is uncertain. In the 2000 presidential election, the KMT nominated Lien Chan and James Soong (who was expelled from the KMT and would form the PFP after the election), ran as an independent on a separate ticket. Together they garnered 59.9% of the vote, but lost to the DPP's Chen Shui-bian who won 39.3% of the vote. This split in the electorate was widely seen to have led to Chen's victory, and in the 2004 presidential election, Lien and Soong ran on a combined ticket (with Lien for president and Soong for vice president). Though widely expected to win the election on the basis of their combined vote totals in 2000, they still lost by 0.22% of the vote.
Following the Ma Ying-jeou's landslide victory over Wang Jin-pyng in the 2005 KMT chairmanship election and the KMT's apparent victory over the DPP in the 2005 3-in-1 local elections -- though the DPP made large gains at the local level, the KMT took most of the key county chief positions -- Ma is heavily favored for the Pan-Blue nomination. With the PFP's dismal showing in the 2004 legislative election and the 2005 3-in-1 local elections, there is increasing pressure for the PFP to merge with the KMT. The PFP announced on December 12 that it would merge into the KMT in two phases, the first being completed by the end of January 2006. However, the talks regarding mergers were then suspended; since then, the parties have resumed merger talks.
Former KMT Chairman and Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou has began his campaign before his announcement for candidacy, taking trips Europe and Japan in 2006, nominally to obtain business deals for Taipei, but covered widely by the media for his foreign policy remarks. Significantly, Ma Ying-jeou became the first head of a pan-Blue coalition party to state that declaring de jure Taiwanese independence was a legitimate choice of the Taiwanese people, though he qualified it saying that this was not a position of the KMT, after receiving much criticism from pan-Blue politicians. He also stated that Taiwan should form a common market with China and establish direct transportation links. Ma has also expressed an interest to relocate to southern Taiwan—the traditional pan-Green stronghold—after his term as Taipei mayor ends in 2006, though this speculation has yet to become true. Ma officially announced his entry into the 2008 race on February 13, 2007 and was formally nominated as the KMT candidate in May 2007. Former vice chairman Wang Jin-pyng, the president of the Legislative Yuan, did not oppose Ma's campaign for the KMT nomination but has not ruled out an independent run if his advisers feel he would garner considerable support.
Ma formally asked Wang to be his running mate. Several news outlets have reported that Ma and Wang's cooperation could stem further than the vice-presidential candidate, but that Wang may swing a cooperation with Ma's promise to appoint him premier, if elected.
Meanwhile, the Pan-Green Coalition's unity, at one point appeared in question as the DPP primary campaign became an unexpected nasty campaign between the two frontrunners, former premier Frank Hsieh and then-premier Su Tseng-chang. However, after Hsieh's primary victory among DPP members, Su, as well as the two other candidates, chairman Yu Shyi-kun and vice-president Annette Lu, have suspended their campaigns and announced that they would support Hsieh, causing DPP to cancel the second stage primary, based on opinion polls. The TSU has not yet announced whether it would support Hsieh.
Su Tseng-chang resigned his post as Premier on May 12. He was replaced by DPP loyalist Chang Chun-hsiung, who will man the position a second time. This marks the sixth premier named by Chen Shui-bian in his seven years as President of the Republic of China. There is also speculation that Su's resignation will make chances of a Hsieh-Su ticket formation greater, while some speculate Chen's accepting of Su's resignation as strategy to allow Su not to steal Hsieh's limelight ahead of the elections.
Issues
As is common with Taiwanese elections, a major issue of the campaign will likely be over the future of the political status of Taiwan and maintaining good cross-straits relations. The DPP favors Taiwan independence; the KMT on the other hand, is willing to accept the PRC's one-China principle and believes that Taiwan will eventually unify with mainland China; however the KMT still regards ROC as the sole legitimate government of China. The KMT's main objective is to establish a closer economic relationship with mainland China. Unlike the DPP, it is much more flexible in terms of diplomatic rhetoric. It is widely recognized that no candidate could win without supporting the status quo of de facto independence (as they did in 2004) in order to attract centrist voters. Also in 2004, both mainstream candidates recognized eventual unification and independence as a possible option as a means to attract the center. The strategy of both sides, as was the case in 2004, will be to persuade voters that it can best maintain the status quo and protect Taiwan from an invasion by the People's Republic of China.
While the smaller, more radical TSU favors immediate moves to rename the country as Republic of Taiwan, the much more mainstream DPP under Chen Shui-bian has so far taken a more moderate position regarding independence. At the same time the Chen administration has moved to promote a separate Taiwanese identity and give official recognition to Taiwan's de facto independence from the mainland such as by equating Taiwan with the Republic of China. The front-runners for the DPP nomination are all considered moderates like Chen Shui-bian.
The KMT party line is against one country, two systems, but is supportive of dialogue with the Communist Party of China under the "1992 Consensus." The DPP, in contrast, opposes recognizing One China (a prerequisite set by the PRC for negotiations), and no talks have occurred under the Chen administration. The KMT also supports immediately opening up the three links with mainland China, which the DPP has been reluctant to implement, and this reluctant willingness is further impeded by the PRC's refusal to negotiate unless the government accepts the one-China principle and the so-called 1992 consensus.
Another issue to be discussed in the years before the election is constitutional reform. President Chen Shui-bian had pledged in his second inaugural address to draft a new constitution by 2006 to take effect upon the inauguration of the 12th-term president in 2008. This is opposed by the Pan-Blue Coalition, which seeks only changes through amendments to the existing document. A constitutional reform package was passed in 2005 with cross-party support, while the "Constitutional Reform Committee" proposed by President Chen to draft the new Constitution has never been formed. It appears, that with Pan-Blue controlling the Legislative Yuan until at least 2012 (commanding a 72% majority beginning February 2008, following the 2008 legislative election) and few actions being taken by the president for drafting a new Constitution, there will be no new Constitution for 2008.
The investigations into alleged misuse of funds by members of both the KMT and DPP is another hot topic: Ma Ying-Jeou was indicted on charges of misusing his Mayoral funds, and the First Lady has been indicted for embezzling from a national account (President Chen is immune from any charges as the law gives a sitting president immunity). DPP candidate Frank Hsieh is under investigation for similar charges as Ma in irregularity and misuse of funds while he served as mayor of Kaohsiung. However, different from Ma, Frank Hsieh has stated that if he is found guilty in his Mayoral funds case, he will not continue running as a candidate for president. Ma has maintained his innocence and has stated that he will not give up his run for presidency even if found guilty. Ma, on August 12, 2007, was found not guilty on his special funds case, clearing his name of corruption charges.
A third issue may be the recent restorations or additions of "Taiwan" to names in state-controlled and state-owned firms, such as replacing Chunghwa Post with Taiwan Post, the name it bore into the ROC period of rule on Taiwan; and Chiang Kai-Shek International Airport to Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport, its originally planned name. The naming controversy of the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall and the legality of the Central Government's name-change order is another topic of heated debate. Conservative observers tend to view the name changes as signs of reactionary desinicization carried out by President Chen to appease his base supporters, while others view the name changing as signs of Taiwan localization movement carving an identity for Taiwan's name. The issue is, like most others, split strongly between Pan-Blue and Pan-Green supporters.
Since selecting Vincent Siew as his running mate, Ma Ying-jeou has announced that the chief issue of this election would be the recovery of Taiwanese economy. He has said that the independence-reunification debate is a "fake issue" with no bearing on the general welfare of the Taiwanese people. He also labeled Siew as the would-be "chief architect" to revive the economy, because of Siew's solid economic background.
Finally a recent issue has surfaced regarding the integrity and crisis management capabilities of Ma Ying-jeuo. In January 2008, the DPP accused candidate Ma Ying-Jeou of having a United States green card. Initially, Ma responded by saying that no one in his family has a green card, but later recanted to state that he had had a green as a student, that his wife also had had a green card, and that one of his daughters is a native-born US citizen. Ma Ying-jeuo, however, believes that his green card had expired when he applied for a non-immigrant visa, which is actually incorrect under Title X of the United States Code. Many in Taiwan have pointed to this incorrect interpretation of law as evidence that Ma was never a real student of law but instead spent his days in the US spying on other Taiwanese students. Ma also produced an unverified page of a passport which showed that he had not gone to the United States for over 1-year between 1992 and 1994, which he further claims validates his claim that his green card expired. However, again Ma Ying-jeuo's legal interpretation has again been called into doubt since absence from the United States for over 1-year only gives the US government the right to revoke a green card, but does not automatically revoke a green card. Moreover, Ma Ying-jeuo has failed to produced his complete passport and instead is relying on a photocopy of a passport - not necessarily his - to justify his claims. The issue is currently in dispute and has led to a general decline in Ma's opinion polls with respect to his integrity and his handling of a crisis situation. In fact, many in Taiwan have joked that the reason Ma doesn't have a green card is because he has already surrendered it when he received his US naturalization certificate when he became a US citizen.
Opinion polling
| Polling Firm | Date | Source | Ma-Siew (KMT) | Hsieh-Su (DPP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TVBS | 31 January 2008 | 56 | 30 | |
| TVBS | 29 January 2008 Green card incident |
53 | 26 | |
| United Daily News | 26 January 2008 Before the official registration of candidacy |
HTML | 54 | 23 |
| China Times | 25 January 2008 | HTML | 46 | 23 |
| Global Views (遠見雜誌)† | 18 January 2008 | HTML 1 2 | 62.3 | 37.7 |
| TVBS | 15 January 2008 After the legislative election |
56 | 26 | |
| Reuters via United Daily News | 28 December 2007 After Ma is cleared of corruption charges |
HTML | 52 | 23 |
| Reuters via China Times | HTML | 45 | 24 | |
| Global Views (遠見雜誌)† | 19 November 2007 | HTML | 58.6 | 41.4 |
| United Daily News | 24 October 2007 | HTML | 50 | 25 |
| Global Views (遠見雜誌)† | 18 October 2007 | HTML | 59.4 | 40.6 |
| United Daily News | 23 September 2007 After Hsieh and Su not indicted in their discretionary funds cases |
HTML | 51 | 27 |
| TVBS | 19 September 2007 | 53 | 30 | |
| TVBS | 28 August 2007 | 54 | 32 | |
| TVBS | 15 August 2007 | 51 | 30 | |
| United Daily News | 14 August 2007 After Ma is cleared of corruption charges |
HTML | 52 | 22 |
| United Daily News | 13 August 2007 After announcement of the Hsieh-Su ticket's formation |
HTML | 40 | 27 |
| Kuomintang | 9 August 2007 | HTML | 58.2 | 41.8 |
| TVBS | 2 August 2007 | 47 | 28 | |
| TVBS | 11 July 2007 | 49 | 25 | |
| China Times | 24 June 2007 After announcement of the Ma-Siew ticket's formation |
HTML | 40 | 20 |
| United Daily News | HTML | 50 | 23 | |
| TVBS | 51 | 27 | ||
| Global Views (遠見雜誌)† | June 2007 | HTML | 57.3 | 42.7 |
| United Daily News | 4 June2007 | HTML | 58 | 17 |
| TVBS | 22 May 2007 | 50 | 25 | |
| China Times | May 2007 | HTML | 33 | 24 |
| United Daily News | 6 May2007 | HTML | 43 | 28 |
| TVBS | 4 May 2007 | DOC | 50 | 29 |
| United Daily News | 29 April2007 | HTML | 52 | 21 |
| TVBS | 29 January 2007 | 60 | 20 |
Note: It is important to note that in terms of political orientation, TVBS, United Daily News, and China Times are considered Pan-Blue and pro-unification.
† Numbers published by Global Views are calculated from a campaign indicator model.
References
- http://udn.com/NEWS/NATIONAL/NAT1/3918552.shtml]
- Additional Articles of the Constitution of the Republic of China, § 2: "Citizens of the free area of the Republic of China residing abroad may return to the ROC to exercise their electoral rights and this shall be stipulated by law." Absentee ballots are not legally available.
- http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070216/wl_asia_afp/taiwanpoliticsdpp_070216154834
- "Frank Hsieh Confirmed as DPP Standard Bearer", The China Post May 8, 2007
- http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2007/05/07/2003359809
- Adams, Jonathan "Taiwan's 'superstars' to battle it out" Asia Times, Jan 9, 2007
- http://udn.com/NEWS/NATIONAL/NATS6/3827717.shtml
- http://www.asiamedia.ucla.edu/article-eastasia.asp?parentid=7835
- 等扁點頭 謝暫緩中部行程, Liberty Times, 10/5/07
- "Taiwan Ex-President Lee Severs Ties With President Chen - AFP"
- BBC News (2007-05-02): Taiwan opposition picks candidate
- "Ma said to pick Siew for 2008 race". The China Post. 2007-06-23. Retrieved 2007-06-23.
{{cite news}}: External link in|publisher=|publisher=(help) - http://news.chinatimes.com/2007Cti/2007Cti-Focus/2007Cti-Focus-Content/0,4518,9606010491+96060131+0+215519+0,00.html
- http://tw.news.yahoo.com/article/url/d/a/070531/4/f683.html
- http://www.ettoday.com/2007/05/09/10844-2094378.htm
- http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/eastasia/view/276152/1/.html
- http://udn.com/NEWS/NATIONAL/NAT3/3970019.shtml
- Mo Yan-chih `U paper' accused of being campaign tool, Taipei Times, 4/25/2007
- Lee Shuyu "Taiwan: What's in a Name?", World Press Review, 2003
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