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staying on topic

I think this should be deleted as it isn't specific to subprime issues: Gerald P. O'Driscoll former vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas stated that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had become classic examples of crony capitalism. Government backing let Fannie and Freddie dominate the mortgage-underwriting. "The politicians created the mortgage giants, which then returned some of the profits to the pols - sometimes directly, as campaign funds; sometimes as "contributions" to favored constituents."

On April 18, 2006 home loan giant Freddie Mac was fined $3.8 million, by far the largest amount ever assessed by the Federal Election Commission, as a result of illegal campaign contributions. Much of the illegal fund raising benefited members of the House Financial Services Committee, a panel whose decisions can affect Freddie Mac.

BoE govenors warning last June

This may be worth putting in somewhere - Mervyn King June 2007 - "The development of complex financial instruments and the spate of loan arrangements without traditional covenants suggest another maxim: be cautious about how much you lend, especially when you know rather little about the activities of the borrower.

It may say champagne - AAA - on the label of an increasing number of structured credit instruments.

But by the time investors get to what's left in the bottle, it could taste rather flat. Be cautious about how much you borrow is not a bad maxim for each and every one of us here tonight."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/03/ccom103.xml

TED Spread graphic

I like the TED spread chart. But I am curious where the data comes from. Is the data source cited? If so, I guess I missed it. If not, can the contributor add a citation? Bond Head (talk) 11:47, 3 October 2008 (UTC)

support - You are right that graph is unsourced, unless a source is added that graph will be removed. EconomistBR 15:22, 3 October 2008 (UTC)

I added one that is sourced.Farcaster (talk) 03:52, 8 October 2008 (UTC)

WTF???

Why is Barney Frank or Chris Dodd either mentioned in this entire article? Or the rest of the democrats that fought legislation to regulate Fannie and Freddie back in 2003? Why is the only tid bit about pushing legislation to reform this companies reflect Ron Paul?

I suggest a complete re-write leaning blame towards Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, and other key democratic players, along with Republican Roy Blunt. 68.143.88.2 (talk) 18:48, 9 October 2008 (UTC)

Oh, but luckily that Obama campaign had enough sense to "let go" of their VP Selection Committee Chairman, Jim Johnson, since he was the VP of the largest. http://articles.latimes.com/2008/jun/12/nation/na-johnson12 68.143.88.2 (talk) 19:13, 9 October 2008 (UTC)

I always enjoy chatting with Republicans, who love to make up garbage, like tax cuts increase government revenues (total B.S.) Have any facts? Like Fannie and Freddie only bought "conforming" loans, of a higher credit quality? Or that over 98% of their assets were paying on time (vs. a 35% default rate for subprime loans industry wide?) Or that investment banks were deregulated by the SEC (executive branch=President Bush) in 2004, so that they could leverage up like crazy on this garbage and pawn it off across the entire banking system? Blame the Republican cronies in the investment banks first before you go there. Fannie and Freddie are maybe 20% of this problem--an important part, but not THE part.Farcaster (talk) 19:31, 9 October 2008 (UTC)

Mortgage Insurance Requirements

Can anyone help me understand why Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) was apparently not in place to protect lenders when borrowers could not make a downpayment of at least 20%? Did the requirements for PMI change at some point in time? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 75.185.66.119 (talk) 02:41, 10 October 2008 (UTC)

Rename to 2008 financial crisis?

Shouldn't this page be named 2008 financial crisis? As this crisis unfolds, it seems that the sub-prime mortgage meltdown is only a part of the problem. Securitization and other derivatives seem to be as big a part of the story, and contagion is spreading distress throughout the financial system. BTW, you all seem to have covered all the bases. Nice job. LK (talk) 04:25, 10 October 2008 (UTC)

This is definitely the best of the articles on this general subject but the title is limiting.--JohnnyB256 (talk) 20:20, 12 October 2008 (UTC)

Global world map [[Image:

We/the article need a global world map, with the countries which has been get the financial crisis. (Green color to the countries with big crisis like USA. --CikkBővítő (talk) "Effect on municipal bonds" section is missing

I was reading the wikipedia article on municipal bonds which has a section that linked to Subprime mortgage crisis#Effect on municipal bond "monoline" insurers. This section which used to be part of either the Municipal Bonds or Subprime mortgage crisis articles is now deleted from both articles. I would like to know more about this subject. Thank you. 71.171.118.196 (talk) 00:29, 11 October 2008 (UTC)

I moved it to Subprime mortgage crisis - other economic effects some time ago when that issue faded from the headlines. It's still there along with some headlines. You might also check out credit default swap. Lots going on with that related to the Lehman Bankruptcy.Farcaster (talk) 04:28, 11 October 2008 (UTC)

events

seems like several spin-off referring and generalizing the same current events covered many times, and using various arbitrary names and dates such Economic_crisis_of_2008 or Financial crisis of 2007–2008.....Rodrigue (talk) 13:15, 12 October 2008 (UTC)

Yes, lots of spinoffs. I guess imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. But serious, this main article is about the causes, impacts, and responses. It should be more thematic and summarized, with just enough examples to illustrate the particular element or point. Daily type events and daily he said/she said should be put into subordinate articles. My thought is that this article is the umbrella with other articles for deep-dives on particular issues.Farcaster (talk) 17:05, 12 October 2008 (UTC)

name with United States

Since 98% or so of the article is about the United States, and it is the United States that made all these subprime loans, why shouldn't the name of of the article include 'United States'? Hmains (talk) 00:06, 13 October 2008 (UTC)

Krugman

It seems like this might belong to document the opinion of an expert on fannie and freddie, since much talk has come from this:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/14/opinion/14krugman.html

Brusegadi (talk) 07:56, 13 October 2008 (UTC)

Could I get a tl;dr version?

If someone could summarize what happened in like, a paragraph, it'd be awesome. thx —Preceding unsigned comment added by 74.213.214.208 (talk) 12:51, 13 October 2008 (UTC)

First paragraph edits

Farcaster keeps on undoing my edits to this paragraph. A fundamental modification is necessary as there is no mention of any loan defaults which is actually the bulk of the crisis. Those of us that have actually studied economics, know that in economics there are causes and effects. Lack of liquidity is an effect not a cause of the crisis. Therefore stating that the crisis "is characterized by lack of liquidity" is essentially incorrect. The real cause are huge amounts of defaulted loans. Please, discuss or understand the edits before undoing them. VShaka (talk) 20:34, 2 October 2008 (UTC)

Speculation sections

Can the "Excessive housing speculation" and "The role of speculative borrowing practices" be combined under "Speculation"? Also, the statement: “The role of speculative borrowing has been cited as a contributing factor to the subprime mortgage crisis”; is supported by an article written in 1996. Something is wrong with that. Halgin (talk) 23:32, 2 October 2008 (UTC)

support. I suppport merging the sections.

Minsky, an economist, who predicted this type of financial crisis died in 1996, the article is about his death. Check this quote out:

"Minsky found that in prosperous times a speculative euphoria develops and soon lending gets beyond what the borrowers can pay off from their incoming revenues. That produces a crisis. There is a pull-back in lending, even to companies that can afford the loans, and the economy contracts."

That's exactly what is happening now. EconomistBR 04:11, 3 October 2008 (UTC)

Bank capital replenishment

The most interesting graphics on financial institutions reserves and borrowings from the fed are these: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BORROW and http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BOGNONBR. The first is monthly data from 1919 (not a typo) to date on average financial institution borrowings from the Fed. The second is monthly data from 1959 to date, on financial institutions' non-borrowed reserves. Both clearly show that something broke. DOR (HK) (talk) 06:11, 3 October 2008 (UTC)

Very interesting graphs, IMO they should be added but we must explain what "Non-Borrowed Reserves of Depository Institutions" means to readers.

They may not fit here but one of the sub-article can totally take them.

EconomistBR 15:28, 3 October 2008 (UTC)

Causes of the crisis

Please discuss here removal of the following cause: "requirement of commercial and mortgage banks to lend to high-risk borrowers ". Gogino (talk) 14:08, 15 October 2008 (UTC)

Please remove your edits or I will later today. Cite a credible source that says these are the most important causes. They actually aren't in the top 20, so I'd like to see if you can support it.Farcaster (talk) 14:26, 15 October 2008 (UTC)

Farcaster, I responded to this your post below. You ignored it and again censored my contribution. Why?

--Gogino (talk) 21:01, 15 October 2008 (UTC)

> CRA is covered under regulation or lack thereof.

I agree and this part should be expanded.

> It is not the primary cause.

Yes, this complicated problems usually do not have one primary cause. It is one of the primary causes.

> CRA is covered in depth in the later portion.

I do not want to cover it here. I want to list it here as one of the causes.

--Gogino (talk) 21:18, 15 October 2008 (UTC)

Here are some credible sources explaining the role of CRA: How Government Stoked the Mania, The Trillion-Dollar Bank Shakedown That Bodes Ill for Cities. Gogino (talk) 17:32, 15 October 2008 (UTC)

In the first sentence of the primary causes, you have this specific element. There is an element related to regulation later in the paragraph. CRA does not merit the level of attention you give it there in the summary. For instance, CRA was from 1995 I believe. The primary issuance of subprime debt that is causing the crisis was in 2004, 2005, and 2006. See the Miliken presentation at the bottom for the specifics. The crisis is really the debt issuance in those 3 years. More proximate to this was the decision by the SEC (in 2004) to enable investment banks to dramatically expand leverage. Even the articles you cite do not give CRA primary position, and they are from the WSJ (a very conservative leaning paper). So I ask (again) that you leave that intro part alone and expand the CRA portion lower (or even better, the separate CRA article, as this article is already too large and should be an umbrella rather than a detailed discussion of every part. I don't want an edit war with you and I want the CRA part in there; I don't want it to appear a primary cause anywhere.Farcaster (talk) 21:46, 15 October 2008 (UTC)

> this article is already too large and should be an umbrella rather than a detailed discussion of every part

I agree. Then all possible causes should be at least listed there so that people can research them and make up their own opinions.

How about to list major causes all agree on, then major causes only some agree on, then minor causes all agree on, and finally minor causes only some agree on?

--Gogino (talk) 00:06, 16 October 2008 (UTC)

There definitely is too much information and exposition and extraneous details on various topics, some more related than others, and Farcaster should feel free to move those details to his background article and otherwise let the sources speak for themselves. Carol Moore 12:51, 16 October 2008 (UTC) Carolmooredc

Predictions of crisis

I've added a section to highlight some of the predictions as EVERYONE BECOMES AND EXPERT AFTER THE FACT (and add their own spin) but some of those with the initial insight had the clearest understanding of what the causes and rising risks were (of course some predict crisis using flawed reasoning and just get lucky). Additionally, experts tried to dispel and mislead on Buffett's warning about derivatives as weapons of mass destruction but failed to discuss his daisy chain / counter party risk warning - yet that - more so than the products themselves were at the heart of his discussion. —Preceding unsigned comment added by AlbertaSunwapta (talk • contribs) 04:02, 16 October 2008 (UTC)

Good. There also were lots of predictions that various govt polices were leading to doom and they need to be there too. Carol Moore 12:53, 16 October 2008 (UTC) Carolmooredc

Causes in general

Clearly there are two major causes of the crisis:

• the existence of the problem of subprime mortgages and
• its acceleration.

Out of the causes listed the following are related to its acceleration only and assume the existence of the problem already: (1) the inability of homeowners to make their mortgage payments, (2) speculation and overbuilding during the boom period, (3) risky mortgage products, (4) high personal and corporate debt levels, (5) financial innovation that distributed and perhaps concealed default risks, and (6) central bank policies.

The remaining causes (7) poor judgment by the borrower and/or the lender and (8) regulation (or lack thereof) could be related to both the existence and the acceleration.

Ad (7): Many borrowers cannot balance their checkbook. Naturally they will have poor judgment about more complicated things. But this is not special for this crisis. It long has been that way and I don't see any evidence of increase in poor judgment other than by the sheer existence of the judgment opportunities. Increase in poor judgment of lenders should have its cause. Why would they have poor judgment just in subprime lending and not in anything else? Why would they employ people with poor judgment? There must be some external force like a possibility of a punishment (for example, requirement of commercial and mortgage banks to lend to high-risk borrowers) or a possibility of making a profit (for example, possibility to liquidate the bad loans).

The bottom line is that (7) is a part of (8) regulation.

Ad (8): This is the only cause of the existence of the problem but it doesn't give enough useful information. The causes that belong here should be listed.

--Gogino (talk) 00:58, 16 October 2008 (UTC)

I appreciate you trying to resolve this and your thoughts on the causes. My point is not to overweight this towards regulation. This crisis demonstrates flaws in nearly every aspect of the economy and some would argue with capitalism in general. We've had massive amounts of capital sloshing uncontrolled from bubble to bubble (Dot-com, Housing, Commodities). Now it sloshed right out of the container (cash is sitting on the sidelines and in bank vaults) and everyone is freaking out. A debt-financed existence is changing to one where people live within their means. Technically, I disagree with the acceleration vs. existence assessment above, but put a bunch of smart experts in the room and they wouldn't all agree. I really like the article at the bottom by Blackburn on the crisis; probably the best I've read. There is a fair amount of discussion about the regulatory causes in the article and in supporting articles. If you want to expand your argument about CRA, please do so in the CRA article. However, characterizing a law passed in 1995 as the primary cause of a problem as pervasive as this is simply not supported by the sources cited or the many I've reviewed. I have tried to capture regulation as one of many elements in the summary and we give government regulation pretty thorough treatment in the body of the article. Many conservatives want to blame over-regulation, while many liberals want to blame under-regulation. I think both extremes miss the point, which is that people got caught up in thinking they could get a free lunch on housing and they got burned badly. Every aspect of our value system pushes us to jump in with the stampede when there's a bubble and in this case the leaders of the pack ran us off a cliff. I could summarize this crisis in one simple sentence: People tried to live beyond their means and it cost them. Everything else is academic and there is no regulation in the world that can stop the invisible hand of Adam Smith, or the stampede when it starts.Farcaster (talk) 03:09, 16 October 2008 (UTC)

While I'm not ready to make changes in this particular article I'd like to point out some of the problems with Farcaster's arguments above:

• Nearly every change in the economy can be traced to some inappropriate government regulation or deregulation that benefits one special interest to the detriment of everyone else. I repeat: it's not the bare fact of regulation or deregulation that matters but who benefits and who gets hurt from each one.

• Sure there's a lot of sloshing money from American billionaires who got rich off government protections, subsidies and contracts; Chinese government or government-connected investors wealthy from manipulation of labor markets, trade agreements, environmental standards and savings rates; middle east oil-rich governments wealthy from western governments' stifling of energy alternatives through burdensome regulations and taxes that stifle competition, even as they themselves often are bullied by those govts into keeping prices artificially low.

• But there's a big difference between a bubble caused by mania and greed, like the dot coms and commodities, and those bubbles caused by conscious government laws and polices and institutions that, intentionally or not, make it profitable for shady "community organizer" and other defacto real estate brokers, mortgage companies, Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac profiteering executives, and wall street securities packagers to push people into homes or refinancing packages they don't understand and can't afford. In the former only the foolish get hurt; in the latter millions of people do.

• People who were lied to about how much their mortgage payments would be 2 years down the road weren't living beyond their means. People who had no choice but to pay $400,000 for a $150,000 house because govt policies drove up prices in a speculative bubble weren't living beyond their means. People who see 3% inflation erode their incomes, while they see no pay raise year after year, and taxes keep rising aren't living beyond their means.

• The government that promises people social security and medicare benefits it cannot pay for too many more years, that goes into trillion dollar wars and keeps 800 military bases around the world, and that borrows money from China to fund its daily expense - that who is living beyond its means! The great majority of people are victims of government policies that help the well connected get richer and everyone else get screwed.

Obsfucating those facts through a confusing catch-all article won't change the fact. However, at some point the article will be changed to make it closer to WP:RS reality as opposed to WP:Synthesis fantasy. Carol Moore 03:46, 16 October 2008 (UTC)Carolmooredc

to CarolMooreDc:

• Nearly every change in the economy can be traced to some inappropriate government regulation or deregulation that benefits one special interest to the detriment of everyone else. I repeat: it's not the bare fact of regulation or deregulation that matters but who benefits and who gets hurt from each one.
• Sure there's a lot of sloshing money from American billionaires who got rich off government protections, subsidies and contracts; Chinese government or government-connected investors wealthy from manipulation of labor markets, trade agreements, environmental standards and savings rates; middle east oil-rich governments wealthy from western governments' stifling of energy alternatives through burdensome regulations and taxes that stifle competition, even as they themselves often are bullied by those govts into keeping prices artificially low.
• But there's a big difference between a bubble caused by mania and greed, like the dot coms and commodities, and those bubbles caused by conscious government laws and polices and institutions that, intentionally or not, make it profitable for shady "community organizer" and other defacto real estate brokers, mortgage companies, Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac profiteering executives, and wall street securities packagers to push people into homes or refinancing packages they don't understand and can't afford. In the former only the foolish get hurt; in the latter millions of people do.
• People who were lied to about how much their mortgage payments would be 2 years down the road weren't living beyond their means. People who had no choice but to pay $400,000 for a $150,000 house because govt policies drove up prices in a speculative bubble weren't living beyond their means. People who see 3% inflation erode their incomes, while they see no pay raise year after year, and taxes keep rising aren't living beyond their means.
• The government that promises people social security and medicare benefits it cannot pay for too many more years, that goes into trillion dollar wars and keeps 800 military bases around the world, and that borrows money from China to fund its daily expense - that who is living beyond its means! The great majority of people are victims of government policies that help the well connected get richer and everyone else get screwed.

Obsfucating those facts through a confusing catch-all article won't change the fact. However, at some point the article will be changed to make it closer to WP:RS reality as opposed to WP:Synthesis fantasy.

I enjoy your posts, if only for the entertainment value.Farcaster (talk) 04:11, 16 October 2008 (UTC)

Carol, I favor clearing up the facts ASAP based on WP:RS instead of the current apparent POV pushing. The perspective of the government's actions and regulations being a source for the crisis is not representatively covered in the article. The dots are not connected as well as they should be. Terjen (talk) 04:57, 16 October 2008 (UTC)

I created a subarticle for you guys to tackle, if you want to contribute called Government policies and the subprime mortgage crisis. I just copied what we had here verbatim in the government policies and put a few basic sections in there. You guys seemed fired up on this issue; please put that fire to productive use!Farcaster (talk) 05:19, 16 October 2008 (UTC)

User:Terjen- A few of us have been beefing up Subprime crisis impact timeline with just the facts and it shows the effects of govt regulation over time, though it's still a work in progress, doubtless with some important public and private moves missing, some unsourced info, and too much material on some tangential topics. I went through this and several other articles for any significant dated events/trends, public and private, from WP:RS sources, but it could certainly use more.

User:Farcaster - Misplaced Pages policy is cooperative editing, not to create a new page every time someone challenges one's favorite formulation in an existing article. See WP:OWN, WP:edit war, WP:Etiquette. Carol Moore 12:24, 16 October 2008 (UTC)Carolmooredc

The subarticle Government policies and the subprime mortgage crisis created by Farcaster is easily recognizable as a WP:POVFORK in clear violation of wikipedia policy. Terjen (talk) 00:51, 17 October 2008 (UTC)

Carol, all you really do out here is blog about your radical views. Start contributing please. I've given you a new venue to do that. Government regulation is one of many causes; any attempts to make it the primary cause will be rebutted.Farcaster (talk) 13:30, 16 October 2008 (UTC)

Please read Misplaced Pages:TALK#Behavior_that_is_unacceptable. Characterizing and attacking other's incompletely understood or mischaracterized views to avoid dealing with their legitimate criticisms or suggestions is unacceptable. Carol Moore 14:11, 16 October 2008 (UTC)Carolmooredc

Other

The following was recently removed: "Another source of the crisis is arguably the evidence of insider trading in credit derivatives". Gogino (talk) 14:20, 15 October 2008 (UTC)

Need to Discuss Bank Leverage

The article does not discuss one of the most significant causes of the subprime crisis. This is the leverage of the investment banks.

Traditionally, the investment banks were limited to borrowing $12 for every dollar of capital. In 2006, the Bush administration eliminated this rule. As a result, the investment banks took their leverage to 30 to 1, and in some cases 35 to 1. In other words, the banks were borrowing $35 for ever $1 of capital on their books.

If the melt-down in the stock market looks like 1929, it is because we are following the same policies as in 1929. In both instances, the stock market became overheated because of excessive borrowing to buy securities.

Professor John Coffee at Columbia Law School has complete details on the regulatory changes. Professor Coffee was one of the authors of the Sarbanes Oxley Act. It is important that this reason be added to the historical record. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Elliott101 (talk • contribs) 11:46, 16 October 2008 (UTC)

Also, when discussing the problem of investment bank leverage, you might want to include a short discussion of the failure of the hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management (LTCM). In many ways, LTCM was a harbinger of the current financial crisis. In 1997, LTCM borrowed 50 to 1 on its money. While the market was going up, LTCM was getting 50% annual returns. When it failed in 1998, LTCM had borrowed over $1 trillion, and nearly brought down all of Wall Street with it. Federal involvement was necessary to avoid a much larger banking crisis at that time. The lessons of LTCM were recent, but apparently not learned by either the banks or the regulators. Complete details are available in a book on LTCM by Roger Lowenstein. Lowenstein is a former reporter for the Wall Street Journal, and the son of another professor at Columbia Law School, Louis Lowenstein.

See the diagram on financial leverage in the economic background section and again the effect on financial institutions section. We could amplify with a paragraph in the causes section. The SEC change was in 2004, also cited.Farcaster (talk) 13:19, 16 October 2008 (UTC)

1. marketmarkethttp://www.nypost.com/seven/09092008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/fannie_freddie_bailout_baloney_128135.htm
2. "To encourage broader homeownership, did not Congress amend the Community Reinvestment Act in 1995 to require commercial and mortgage banks to lend to high-risk borrowers? Banks that failed to comply were hit with fines and faced rejection when they requested mergers and branch expansions.""Ride out Wall Street's hurricane". The Christian Science Monitor. 2008-09-17. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help); Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
3. "The Community Reinvestment Act. This 1977 law compels banks to make loans to poor borrowers who often could not repay them. Banks that failed to make enough of these loans were often held hostage by activists when they next sought some regulatory approval.""A Mortgage Fable". The Wall Street Journal. 2008-09-22. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help); Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)

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