Misplaced Pages

Revision as of 10:14, 23 January 2006

This article documents a current event. Information may change rapidly as the event progresses, and initial news reports may be unreliable. The latest updates to this article may not reflect the most current information. Feel free to improve this article or discuss changes on the talk page, but please note that updates without valid and reliable references will be removed. (Learn how and when to remove this message)

Template:Future election

Template:Wikinewshas

The 2006 Canadian federal election (more formally, the 39th general election) will occur on January 23, 2006. This general election will elect members for the Canadian House of Commons, and will indirectly determine the prime minister and cabinet, as the government will be formed by the political party or coalition of parties that the governor general determines is best able to command the confidence of the House (usually the one with the most elected members). This unusual winter election was caused by a motion of no confidence passed by the House of Commons on November 28, 2005. The following morning, Prime Minister Paul Martin met with Governor General Michaëlle Jean, who agreed to dissolve the minority parliament. The campaign will be almost eight weeks in length, the longest in two decades, in order to allow for downtime over the Christmas and New Year holidays.

Recent political events, most notably testimony to the Gomery Commission investigating the sponsorship scandal, are perceived by some to have weakened the Liberals (who, under Martin, previously formed a minority government) by allegations of criminal corruption in the party. Although the next election was not legally required until 2009, the opposition had enough votes to force the dissolution of Parliament earlier. While Prime Minister Martin had committed in April 2005 to dissolve Parliament within a month of the tabling of the second Gomery Report (now scheduled for February 1, 2006), all three opposition parties—the Conservatives, Bloc Québécois, and New Democratic Party (NDP)—and three of the four independents decided not to wait, and the motion of non-confidence passed 171-133.

Contenders

File:Paulmartin1.jpg

File:Harpes.jpg

File:Jacklaytonsmall.jpg

File:Jim of the Greens.jpeg

Most observers believe only the Liberals and the Conservatives are capable of forming a government in this election, although Canadian political history is not without examples of wholly unexpected outcomes, such as Ontario's provincial election in 1990. With the end of the campaign at hand, pollsters and pundits place the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals.

Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals hope to recapture their majority, although this appears unlikely at this point; it will require holding back Bloc pressure in Quebec plus picking up some new seats there while also gaining seats in English Canada, most likely in rural Ontario and southwestern British Columbia.

Stephen Harper's Conservatives hope to bring their new party into power in Canada. While continuing weaknesses in Quebec and urban areas prompt most observers to consider a Conservative majority government to be mathematically difficult to achieve, Harper's stated goal is to achieve one nonetheless. Though the Conservatives are now ahead of the Liberals in Quebec, they remain far behind the Bloc Québecois, and additional gains in rural and suburban Ontario will be necessary to meet Stephen Harper's goal.

The NDP has claimed that last minute tactical voting cost them several seats last time, as left-of-centre voters moved to the Liberals so that they could prevent a Harper-led government. Jack Layton has thus far avoided stating his party's goal is to win the election outright, instead calling for enough New Democrats to be elected to hold the balance of power in a Liberal or Conservative minority government. Political commentators have long argued that the NDP's main medium-term goal is to serve as junior partners to the Liberals in Canada's first-ever true coalition government. NDP leader Jack Layton was concerned last time over people voting Liberal so that they could avoid a Conservative government.

The Bloc Québécois had a very successful result in the 2004 election, with the Liberals reduced to the core areas of federalist support in portions of Montreal and Gatineau. Oddly enough, this means there are comparatively few winnable Bloc seats left—perhaps eight or so—for the party to target. With provincial allies the Parti Québécois widely tipped to regain power in 2007, a large sovereigntist contingent in the House could play a major role in reopening the matter of Quebec independence. The Bloc Québécois only runs candidates in the provice of Quebec.

In addition to the four sitting parties, the Green Party of Canada is running candidates in all 308 federal ridings (Bloc Québécois is only running in Quebec ridings, as it always has). Though no Green candidate has yet been elected in Canada, the party has occasionally polled as high as 19% in British Columbia and 10% nationwide.

Events during the 38th Parliament

An early election seemed likely because the 2004 federal election, held on June 28, 2004, resulted in the election of a Liberal minority government. In the past, minority governments have had an average lifespan of a year and a half. Some people considered the 38th parliament to be particularly unstable. It involved four parties, and only very implausible ideological combinations (e.g., Liberals + Conservatives; Liberals + BQ; Conservatives + BQ + NDP) could actually command a majority of the seats, a necessity if a government is to retain power. From its earliest moments, there was some threat of the government falling as even the Speech from the Throne almost resulted in a non-confidence vote.

Brinksmanship in the spring of 2005

The parliament came close to falling when testimony from the Gomery Commission caused public opinion to move sharply against the government. The Bloc Québécois were eager from the beginning to have an early election. The Conservatives announced they had also lost confidence in the government's moral authority. Thus, during much of spring 2005, there was a widespread belief that the Liberals would lose a confidence vote, prompting an election taking place in the spring or summer of 2005.

In a televised speech on April 21, Martin promised to request a dissolution of Parliament and begin an election campaign within 30 days of the Gomery Commission’s final report. The release date of that report would later solidify as February 1, 2006; Martin then clarified that he intended to schedule the election call so as to have the polling day in April 2006.

Later that week, the NDP, who had initially opposed the budget, opted to endorse Martin's proposal for a later election. The Liberals agreed to take corporate tax cuts out of the budget on April 26 in exchange for NDP support on votes of confidence, but even with NDP support the Liberals still fell three votes short of a majority. However, a surprise defection of former Conservative leadership candidate Belinda Stronach to the Liberal party on May 17 changed the balance of power in the House. Independents Chuck Cadman and Carolyn Parrish provided the last two votes needed for the Liberals to win the budget vote.

The deal turned out to be rather unnecessary, as the Conservatives opted to ensure the government's survival on the motion of confidence surrounding the original budget, expressing support to the tax cuts and defence spending therein. When Parliament voted on second reading and referral of the budget and the amendment on May 19, the previous events kept the government alive. The original budget bill, C-43, passed easily, as expected, but the amendment bill, C-48, resulted in an equality of votes, and the Speaker of the House broke the tie to continue the parliament. The government never got as close to falling after that date. Third reading of Bill C-48 was held late at night on an unexpected day, and several Conservatives being absent, the motion passed easily, guaranteeing there would be no election in the near future.

Aftermath of the first Gomery report

On November 1, John Gomery released his interim report, and the scandal returned to prominence. Liberal support again fell, with some polls registering an immediate ten percent drop. The Conservatives and Bloc thus resumed their push for an election before Martin's April date. The NDP stated that their support was contingent on the Liberals agreeing to move against the private provision of healthcare. The Liberals and NDP failed to come to an agreement, however, and the NDP joined the two other opposition parties in demanding an election.

However, the Liberals had intentionally scheduled the mandatory "opposition days" (where a specified opposition party controls the agenda) on November 15 (Conservative), November 17 (Bloc Québécois) and November 24 (NDP). These days meant that any election would come over the Christmas season, an unpopular idea. Following negotiations between the opposition parties, they instead issued an ultimatum to the Prime Minister to call an election immediately after the Christmas holidays or face an immediate non-confidence vote which would prompt a holiday-spanning campaign.

To that end, the NDP introduced a parliamentary motion demanding that the government drop the writ in January 2006 for a February 13 election date; however, only the prime minister has the authority to advise the Governor General on an election date, the government was therefore not bound by the NDP's motion. Martin had indicated that he remained committed to his April 2006 date, and would disregard the motion, which the opposition parties managed to pass, as expected, on November 21 by a vote of 167-129.

The three opposition leaders had agreed to delay the tabling of the no-confidence motion until the 24th, to ensure that a conference between the government and aboriginal leaders scheduled on the 24th would not be disrupted by the campaign. Parliamentary procedure dictated that the vote be deferred until the 28th. Even if the opposition hadn't put forward the non-confidence motion, the government was still expected to fall—there was to have been a vote on supplementary budget estimates on December 8, and if it had been defeated, loss of supply would have toppled the Liberals.

Conservative leader Stephen Harper, the leader of the Opposition, introduced a motion of no confidence on November 24, which NDP leader Jack Layton seconded. The motion was voted upon and passed in the evening of November 28, with all present MPs from the NDP, Bloc Québécois, and Conservatives and 3 Independents (Bev Desjarlais, David Kilgour and Pat O'Brien), voting with a combined strength of 171 votes for the motion and 132 Liberals and one Independent (Carolyn Parrish) voting against. One Bloc Québécois MP was absent from the vote. It is the fifth time a Canadian government has lost the confidence of Parliament, but the first time this has happened on a straight motion of no confidence. The four previous instances have been due to loss of supply or votes of censure.

Martin visited Governor General Michaëlle Jean the following morning, where he formally advised her to dissolve Parliament and schedule an election for January 23. In accordance with Canadian constitutional practice, she consented (such a request has only been turned down once in Canadian history), officially beginning an election campaign that had been simmering for months.

Early on in the campaign, polls showed the Liberals with a solid 5-10 point lead over the Conservatives, and poised to form a strong minority government at worst. Around Christmas, after reports of an RCMP investigation into allegations of insider trading within the Finance department, this situation changed dramatically. Almost at the same time, an unusually violent gun fight between rival gangs on December 26 in downtown Toronto may have swayed some Ontario voters to support the more hardline CPC policies on crime. In the week leading up to the election, however, Conservative leader Stephen Harper made a series of controversial claims regarding the courts, among other things. The CPC enjoys a fairly significant lead in recent polls, but the gap has been narrowing. The outcome in Quebec has become a bit more uncertain, though it remains unlikely that any one party will gain enough support to form a majority government.

Issues

Several issues—some long-standing (notably fiscal imbalance, the gun registry, abortion, and Quebec sovereigntism), others recently brought forth by media coverage or court decisions (the sponsorship scandal, same-sex marriages, income trusts, or Canada-United States relations)—have taken the fore in debate among the parties and also influenced aspects of the parties’ electoral platforms.

Opinion polls

Recent/selected polls:

1. Strategic Counsel polls from November 27th onwards are multi-day polls. Each new poll removes approximately 1/3 of the data that is the oldest, and replaces it with new data from that day.
2. SES polls from December onwards are 3-day polls. Each new poll removes the 1/3 of the data that is the oldest, and replaces it with new data from that day.
3. Various EKOS polls contain results from a single night of polling only. They have fewer respondents than most other polls and, thus, EKOS notes that they are not as credible; however, they are intended to provide a general indication of daily polling trends.
4. Entries for 2005 include selected monthly (typically month-end) polls only.

NB: The margin of error in these surveys depends on the size of the sample in each survey, and is typically set at between 2.5 and 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. See the links for actual error values associated with particular surveys. Note also that because these figures are national percentages, they may not reflect the expected number of seats won by each party. Indeed, the sample size in many polls is not sufficient to give a statistically accurate prediction in individual ridings, and hence the expected number of seats.

All polling companies rely on cooperation from individuals contacted over the phone. The major companies claim a typical response rate is between 20 and 35 percent.

State of the parties

Template:Canadian federal election, 2006

Candidates

The election will involve the same 308 electoral districts as in 2004, except in New Brunswick, where the boundaries of Acadie—Bathurst were deemed illegal. Many of the candidates will also be the same: fewer incumbents chose to leave than if they had served a full term, and the parties have generally blocked challenges to sitting MPs for the duration of the minority government, although there have been some exceptions.

Campaign slogans

The parties' campaign slogans for the 2006 election:

Endorsements

See Endorsements in the Canadian federal election, 2006; Newspaper endorsements in the Canadian federal election, 2006

Vulnerable ridings

The following is a list of ridings which were narrowly lost by the indicated party. For instance, under the Liberal column are the 30 seats in which they came closest to winning but did not. Listed is the name of the riding, followed by the party which was victorious (in parentheses) and the margin, in terms of percentage of the vote, by which the party lost.

These ridings are likely to be targetted by the specified party because the party lost them by a very slim margin in the 2004 election.

Up to 30 are shown, with a maximum margin of victory of 15%.

* Indicates incumbent not running again. To clarify further; this is a list of federal election winners with their party in parentheses, and their margin of victory as a percentage of the vote.

Cabinet ministers who won by less than 5% in 2004

1. Liza Frulla, Canadian Heritage: 0.2% over BQ in Jeanne-Le Ber, QC
2. Ethel Blondin-Andrew, Northern Development: 0.3% over NDP in Western Arctic, NT
3. Pierre Pettigrew, Foreign Affairs: 1.1% over BQ in Papineau, QC
4. Belinda Stronach, Human Resources and Skills Development: 1.3% over Lib in Newmarket—Aurora, ON; elected as a Conservative, Stronach defected to the Liberals on May 17, 2005.
5. Anne McLellan, Deputy PM/Public Safety: 1.4% over Cons. in Edmonton Centre, AB
6. Tony Valeri, House Leader, 1.9% over NDP in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, ON
7. Aileen Carroll, International Cooperation, 2.6% over Cons. in Barrie, ON
8. David Emerson, Industry, 3.1% over NDP in Vancouver Kingsway, BC
9. Jacques Saada, Quebec Economic Development, 4.9% over BQ in Brossard—La Prairie, QC

Incumbent MPs not running for re-election

Election day

The election will be held on January 23, 2006. Voting hours will be:

External links

• Current events
• Canadian federal elections 2006