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United States presidential election, 2020

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →

The electoral map for the 2020 election, based on populations from the 2010 Census. The 2020 election will be the last election to use the data from the 2010 Census; the subsequent two elections will use information from the as yet-to-be-collected 2020 United States Census.

Incumbent President Donald Trump Republican

The United States presidential election of 2020, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, will be the 59th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will either elect a new president and vice president through the electoral college or re-elect the incumbents. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are likely to be held during the first six months of 2020. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee.

Barring any major change in circumstances, Republican Donald Trump, who was elected in 2016, will be eligible to seek re-election. The winner of the 2020 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2021.

Background

Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to be elected and serve as President of the United States the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the President and Vice President.

Demographic trends

The age group of what will then be persons in the 18 to 45-year-old bracket is expected to represent 40 percent of the United States' eligible voters in 2020.

Simultaneous elections

The presidential election will occur at the same time as elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Several states will also hold state gubernatorial and state legislative elections. Following the election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 United States Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have redistricting commissions), and often a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect that also helps other candidates of that party win election. Therefore, the party that wins the 2020 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections.

Advantage of incumbency

An incumbent President seeking re-election usually faces no significant opposition during their respective party's primaries, especially if they are still popular. For Presidents Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, for example, their respective paths to nomination became uneventful and the races become merely pro forma; all four then went on to win a second presidential term. Serious challenges are rare, but then generally presage failure to win the general election in the fall. During the 1976 Republican Party primaries, then-former California Governor Reagan carried 23 states while running against incumbent President Gerald Ford; Ford then went on to lose the presidential election to Jimmy Carter, albeit carrying more states. Senator Ted Kennedy then carried 12 states while running against Carter during the 1980 Democratic Party primaries; Reagan then defeated Carter in the fall of 1980. Pat Buchanan captured a decent percentage of a protest vote against George H. W. Bush during the 1992 Republican primaries, but only received a handful of delegates; Bush too subsequently went on to lose in the general election to Clinton.

General election polling

Trump vs. Biden

Trump vs. Booker

Trump vs. Franken

Trump vs. Sanders

Trump vs. Warren

Trump vs. Winfrey

Trump vs. Cuban

Trump vs. generic Democrat

Republican Party

Donald Trump is eligible to run for re-election and has implied that he intends to do so. On January 20, 2017 at 5:11 PM, he submitted a letter as a substitute of FEC Form 2, for which he had reached the legal threshold for filing, in compliance with the Federal Election Campaign Act.

Below are other Republican candidates that may or will run in 2020:

Declared candidates

Name	Born	Current or previous positions	State	Announced	Ref
Jack Fellure	October 3, 1931 (age 93) Midkiff, West Virginia	Prohibition nominee for President in 2012 Candidate for President 1988–2008 and 2016	West Virginia	November 9, 2016

Candidates who have publicly expressed interest

Candidates in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.

• Dwayne Johnson, actor, producer, singer, and professional wrestler from Florida
• Austin Petersen, candidate for President in 2016
• Donald Trump, President of the United States since 2017; candidate for President in 2000

• Dwayne Johnson
  from Florida
• Austin Petersen
  from Missouri
• President
  Donald Trump
  from New York

Speculative candidates

• Nikki Haley, U.N. Ambassador since 2017; Governor of South Carolina 2011–2017

• U.N. Ambassador
  Nikki Haley
  from South Carolina

Declined to be candidates

• John Kasich, Governor of Ohio since 2011; U.S. Representative 1983–2001; candidate for President in 2000 and 2016
• Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky since 2011; candidate for President in 2016

Potential convention sites

• Las Vegas, Nevada

Democratic Party

Declared candidates

Name	Born	Current or previous positions	State	Announced	Ref
Rocky De La Fuente	October 10, 1954 (age 70) San Diego, California	American Delta and Reform nominee for President in 2016	Florida	January 9, 2017
Geoffrey Fieger	December 23, 1950 (age 74) Detroit, Michigan	Democratic nominee for Governor of Michigan in 1998	Michigan	January 13, 2017

Candidates who have publicly expressed interest

Candidates in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.

• Lincoln Chafee, Governor of Rhode Island 2011–2015; U.S. Senator 1999–2007; Mayor of Warwick 1993–1999; candidate for President in 2016
• Terry McAuliffe, Governor of Virginia since 2014; DNC Chairman 2001–2005
• Martin O'Malley, Governor of Maryland 2007–2015; Mayor of Baltimore 1999–2007; candidate for President in 2016

• Former Governor
  Lincoln Chafee
  of Rhode Island
• Governor
  Terry McAuliffe
  of Virginia
• Former Governor
  Martin O'Malley
  of Maryland

Speculative candidates

• Xavier Becerra, Attorney General of California since 2017; U.S. Representative 1993–2017
• Jerry Brown, Governor of California since 2011 and 1975–1983; Attorney General 2007–2011; Mayor of Oakland 1999–2007; Secretary of State 1971–1975; candidate for President in 1976, 1980, and 1992
• Steve Bullock, Governor of Montana since 2013; Attorney General 2009–2013
• Julian Castro, U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development 2014–2017; Mayor of San Antonio 2009–2014
• Bill de Blasio, Mayor of New York City since 2014
• John Bel Edwards, Governor of Louisiana since 2016; Minority Leader of the Louisiana House of Representatives 2012–2015
• Jason Kander, Secretary of State of Missouri 2013–2017; Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016
• Caroline Kennedy, U.S. Ambassador to Japan 2013–2017; First Daughter of the United States 1961–1963
• John Kerry, U.S. Secretary of State 2013–2017; U.S. Senator from Massachusetts 1985–2013; Lieutenant Governor 1983–1985; Democratic nominee for President in 2004
• Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont since 2007; U.S. Representative 1991–2007; Mayor of Burlington 1981–1989; candidate for President in 2016
• Tom Steyer, hedge fund manager, philanthropist, and environmentalist from California
• Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts since 2013

File:Xavier Becerra official portrait as attorney general of California.jpg|

File:Edmund G Brown Jr.jpg|

File:Steve Bullock 2011.jpg|

File:Julián Castro's Official HUD Portrait.jpg|

File:Bill de Blasio 11-2-2013.jpg|

File:John Bel Edwards.jpg|

File:Jason Kander (cropped).jpg|

File:Caroline Kennedy US State Dept photo.jpg|

File:John Kerry official Secretary of State portrait.jpg|

File:Bernie Sanders speaking at the Putting Families First Presidential Forum by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg|

File:SteyerHeadshot.jpeg|

File:Elizabeth Warren 2016.jpg|

</gallery>

Declined to be candidates

• Joe Biden, Vice President of the United States 2009–2017; U.S. Senator from Delaware 1973–2009; candidate for President in 1988 and in 2008
• Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey since 2013; Mayor of Newark 2006–2013
• Sherrod Brown, U.S. Senator from Ohio since 2007; U.S. Representative 1993–2007; Secretary of State 1983–1991
• Chelsea Clinton, First Daughter of the United States 1993–2001; First Daughter of Arkansas 1980–1981 and 1983–1992
• Hillary Clinton, U.S. Secretary of State 2009–2013; U.S. Senator from New York 2001–2009; First Lady of the United States 1993–2001; First Lady of Arkansas 1979–1981 and 1983–1992; candidate for President in 2008 and Democratic nominee in 2016
• George Clooney, actor, filmmaker, and activist from California
• Mark Cuban, businessman, investor, author, television personality, and philanthropist from Texas
• Andrew Cuomo, Governor of New York since 2011; Attorney General 2007–2010; U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development 1997–2001
• Al Franken, U.S. Senator from Minnesota since 2009
• Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. Senator from New York since 2009; U.S. Representative 2007–2009
• Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California since 2017; Attorney General 2011–2017
• John Hickenlooper, Governor of Colorado since 2011; Mayor of Denver 2003–2011
• Bob Iger, businessman from California
• Jay Inslee, Governor of Washington since 2013; U.S. Representative 1993–1995 and 1999–2012
• Tim Kaine, U.S. Senator from Virginia since 2013; DNC Chairman 2009–2011; Governor 2006–2010; Lieutenant Governor 2002–2006; Mayor of Richmond 1998–2001; Democratic nominee for Vice President in 2016
• Joseph P. Kennedy III, U.S. Representative from Massachusetts since 2013
• Chris Murphy, U.S. Senator from Connecticut since 2013; U.S. Representative 2007–2013
• Gavin Newsom, Lieutenant Governor of California since 2011; Mayor of San Francisco 2004–2011; candidate for Governor in 2018
• Michelle Obama, First Lady of the United States 2009–2017
• Sheryl Sandberg, technology executive, activist, and author from California
• Howard Schultz, businessman from Washington
• Mark Warner, U.S. Senator from Virginia since 2009; Governor 2002–2006; Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996
• Oprah Winfrey, media proprietor, talk show host, actress, producer, and philanthropist from California

Potential convention sites

• Birmingham, Alabama
• Columbus, Ohio
• Indianapolis, Indiana
• New York City, New York
• St. Louis, Missouri

National polling

Statewide polling

Iowa

Third-party, independent, and unaffiliated candidates

Libertarian Party

Declared candidates

Name	Born	Current or previous positions	State	Announced	Ref
Adam Kokesh	February 1, 1982 (age 42) San Francisco, California	Political activist	Arizona	July 22, 2013

Candidates who have publicly expressed interest

Candidates in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.

• Austin Petersen, candidate for President in 2016

• Austin Petersen
  from Missouri

Speculative candidates

• Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky since 2011; candidate for President in 2016

• U.S. Senator
  Rand Paul
  of Kentucky

Green Party

Candidates who have publicly expressed interest

Candidates in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.

• Jill Stein, Green nominee for President in 2012 and 2016; Green-Rainbow nominee for Governor of Massachusetts in 2002 and 2010

• Jill Stein
  from Massachusetts

Declined to be candidates

• Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont since 2007; U.S. Representative 1991–2007; Mayor of Burlington 1981–1989; candidate for President in 2016

Independent or unaffiliated

Declared candidates

Name	Born	Current or previous positions	State	Announced	Ref	Notes
Jeremy Gable	May 10, 1982 (age 42) Lakenheath, England	Playwright	Pennsylvania	May 11, 2015
Dan Rattiner	1939 (age Error: Need valid year, month, day) New York City, New York	Journalist Newspaper publisher	New York	April 24, 2015
Jeffrey Sharp	Birth date unknown	Producer Publishing entrepreneur	California	December 8, 2016
Kanye West	June 8, 1977 (age 47) Atlanta, Georgia	Rapper Songwriter Record producer Fashion designer Entrepreneur	California	August 30, 2015

Speculative candidates

• Evan McMullin, candidate for President in 2016

• Evan McMullin
  from Utah

Declined to be candidates

• Mark Cuban, businessman, investor, author, television personality, and philanthropist from Texas
• Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont since 2007; U.S. Representative 1991–2007; Mayor of Burlington 1981–1989; candidate for President in 2016
• Mark Zuckerberg, computer programmer and Internet entrepreneur from California

See also

• United States gubernatorial elections, 2018
• United States gubernatorial elections, 2020
• United States Senate elections, 2018
• United States Senate elections, 2020

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