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{{Short description| Competition between two or more parties to have superior armed forces}}
The term '''arms race''' in its original usage describes a competition between two or more parties for military supremacy. Each party competes to produce larger numbers of ]s, greater armies, or superior ] in a ].
{{For|similar terms|Nuclear arms race|Evolutionary arms race}}
{{More citations needed|date=June 2007}}
]


An '''arms race''' occurs when two or more groups compete in military superiority.<ref>{{cite journal |last=Smith |first=Theresa Clair |year=1980 |title=Arms Race Instability and War |journal=] |volume=24 |issue=2 |pages=255 |doi=10.1177/002200278002400204 |quote="For the purpose of this study an arms race is understood as the participation of two or more nation-states in apparently competitive or interactive increases in quantity or quality of war material and/or persons under arms." |s2cid=154715176}}</ref> It consists of a competition between two or more ] to have superior armed forces, concerning production of ]s, the growth of a ], and the aim of superior ].<ref>{{cite web |title = arms race |url=https://www.britannica.com/topic/arms-race |website=Encyclopedia Britannica |access-date=2023-06-13}}</ref> Unlike a ], which constitutes a specific event with winning interpretable as the outcome of a singular ], arms races constitute spiralling ]s of on-going and potentially open-ended behavior.<ref>
Perhaps the most prominent instance of such a competition was the rapid development by the ] and the ] of more and better ]s during the ] (see: ]). The Soviet Union devoted their ] to the arms race and, with the deployment of the ] in the late 1970s, achieved first strike parity. However, the strain of competition against the great spending power of the United States created enormous economic problems during ]'s attempt at ], the transition to a consumer based, mixed economy, and hastened the collapse of The Soviet Union. Because the two powers were competing with one another instead of aiming for a predefined goal, both nations soon acquired a huge capacity for ], famously described by ] with the analogy of "two men standing waist deep in gasoline; one with three matches, the other with five."
</ref>


The existing scholarly literature is divided as to whether arms races correlate with ].<ref name=":0">
Another prime example of an arms race is during the period leading up to World War I. Several European nations competed to build up their military capacities, and this arms race is thought to be one of the many causes of the war.
{{Cite book
|last= Glaser|first= Charles L.|date= 2010
|title= Rational Theory of International Politics
|url= https://press.princeton.edu/titles/9207.html
|archive-url= |access-date=
|pages= 228–232
|publisher= Princeton University Press|isbn= 9780691143729}}
</ref> International-relations scholars explain arms races in terms of the ], engineering ]s, states with ], and ].<ref name=":0" /><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Glaser |first=Charles L. |date=2000 |title=The Causes and Consequences of Arms Races |journal=Annual Review of Political Science |language=en |volume=3 |issue=1 |pages=251–276 |doi=10.1146/annurev.polisci.3.1.251 |issn=1094-2939|doi-access=free }}</ref><ref>{{Cite book |last=Posen |first=Barry |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=L23Na8YRPpwC |title=The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain, and Germany Between the World Wars |date=1984 |publisher=Cornell University Press |isbn=978-0-8014-1633-0 |pages=13–24 |language=en}}</ref>


== Examples ==
] made an arms race model, trying to ] ], where he showed how two countries would go to war if more money was spent in the arms race than in trade.


=== Pre-First World War naval arms race ===
⚫ ===Other uses===
{{main|Anglo-German naval arms race|World War I naval arms race (disambiguation)|South American dreadnought race}}
]
]|upright=1.8]]


From 1897 to 1914, a ] between the ] and ] took place.<ref name=":0" /><ref>{{Citation |last=Seligmann |first=Matthew S. |title=The Anglo-German Naval Race, 1898–1914 |date=2016 |url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198735267.003.0002 |work=Arms Races in International Politics |pages=21–40 |publisher=Oxford University Press|doi=10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198735267.003.0002 |isbn=978-0-19-873526-7 }}</ref> British concern about rapid increase in German naval power resulted in a costly building competition of '']''-class ships. This tense arms race lasted until 1914, when the war broke out. After the war, a new arms race developed among the victorious Allies, which was temporarily ended by the ].
More generically, the term "arms race" is also used to describe any competition where there is no absolute goal, only the relative goal of staying ahead of the other competitors. ]s is predators evolving more effective means to catch prey while their prey evolves more effective means of evasion. This is sometimes called the ] effect. In addition to predators, ]s can force their hosts into an arms race.


In addition to the British and Germans, contemporaneous but smaller naval arms races also broke out between ] and the ]; the Ottomans and ]; ] and ]; the ] and ] in the 1930s;<ref name=":0" /> and ].
⚫ In technology, there are close analogues to the arms races between parasites and hosts, such as the arms race between ] writers and anti-virus software writers, or ] against ]s and ] software writers.

===Nuclear arms race===
{{main|Nuclear arms race}}
] and ]/] nuclear weapon stockpiles]]
This contest of the advancement of offensive nuclear capabilities occurred during the ], an intense period between the ] and the ] and some other countries. This was one of the main causes that began the Cold War, and perceived advantages of the adversary by both sides (such as the "]" and "]") led to large spending on armaments and the stockpiling of vast nuclear arsenals. ]s were fought all over the world (e.g. in the ], ], and ]) in which the superpowers' conventional weapons were pitted against each other. After the ] and the end of the Cold War, tensions decreased and the nuclear arsenal of both countries were reduced.

] argues that numerous cases of arms races were suboptimal, as they entailed a waste of resources, damaged political relations, increased the probability of war, and hindered states in accomplishing their goals. However, arms races can be optimal for security-seeking states in situations when the offense-defense balance favors offense, when a declining state faces a rising adversary, and when advances in technology make existing weapons obsolete for the power that had an advantage in the existing weaponry.<ref name=":0" />

===Artificial intelligence arms race===
{{main|Artificial intelligence arms race}}
A military '''artificial intelligence arms race''' is an arms race between two or more states to develop and deploy ]s systems (LAWS). Since the mid-2010s, many analysts have noted the emergence of such an arms race between global superpowers for better military AI,<ref name="Geist 318–321">{{Cite journal |last=Geist |first=Edward Moore |date=2016-08-15 |title=It's already too late to stop the AI arms race—We must manage it instead |journal=Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists |volume=72 |issue=5 |pages=318–321 |bibcode=2016BuAtS..72e.318G |doi=10.1080/00963402.2016.1216672 |issn=0096-3402 |s2cid=151967826}}</ref><ref name="Maas 285–311">{{Cite journal |last=Maas |first=Matthijs M. |date=2019-02-06 |title=How viable is international arms control for military artificial intelligence? Three lessons from nuclear weapons |journal=Contemporary Security Policy |volume=40 |issue=3 |pages=285–311 |doi=10.1080/13523260.2019.1576464 |issn=1352-3260 |s2cid=159310223}}</ref> driven by ]. An AI arms race is sometimes placed in the context of an ] between the US and China.<ref>{{cite news |last=Champion |first=Marc |date=12 December 2019|title= Digital Cold War |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/how-u-s-china-tech-rivalry-looks-like-a-digital-cold-war|work= Bloomberg|access-date=3 July 2021}}</ref>

⚫ == Other uses ==
An ] is a system where two populations are ] in order to continuously one-up members of the other population. This concept is related to the ], where two organisms co-evolve to overcome each other but each fails to progress relative to the other interactant.

⚫ In technology, there are close analogues to the arms races between parasites and hosts, such as the arms race between writers of ]es and ], or ] against ]s and ] software writers.

More generically, the term is used to describe any competition where there is no absolute goal, only the relative goal of staying ahead of the other competitors in rank or knowledge. An arms race may also imply futility as the competitors spend a great deal of time and money, yet with neither side gaining an advantage over the other.


==See also== ==See also==
{{div col|colwidth=30em}}
⚫ *]
* ]
*]
*] * ]
*] * ]
*] * ]
* ]
*]
* ]
* ] for his mathematical analysis of war
⚫ * ]
* ]
* ]
* ]
* ]
* ]
* ]
* ]
* ]
{{div col end}}


== literature == ==References==
{{Reflist}}


== Further reading ==
⚫ * Richard J. Barnet: ''Der amerikanische Rüstungswahn.'' Rowohlt, Reinbek 1984, ISBN 3-499-11450-X {{de_icon}}
* Brose, Eric. "", in: ''1914-1918-online. International Encyclopedia of the First World War'' (Freie Universität Berlin, 8 October 2014). {{doi|10.15463/ie1418.10219}}.
⚫ * Jürgen Bruhn: ''Der Kalte Krieg oder: Die Totrüstung der Sowjetunion.'' Focus, Gießen 1995, ISBN 3-88349-434-8 {{de_icon}}
* Downs, George W.; Rocke, David M.; Siverson, Randolph M. (1985). "Arms Races and Cooperation". ''World Politics''. '''38''' (1): 118–146.
* Huntington, Samuel P. 1958. "Arms Races: Prerequisites and Results", Public Policy 8: 41–86
* Intriligator, Michael D., and Brito, Dagobert L.. "". ''Journal of Conflict Resolution'' 28.1 (1984): 63–84.
* Mahnken, Thomas; Maiolo, Joseph; Stevenson, David (eds.). 2016. ''Arms Races in International Politics: From the Nineteenth to the Twenty-First Century''. Oxford University Press.
* Mitchell, David F., and Jeffrey Pickering. 2018. "". In Cameron G. Thies, ed., ''The Oxford Encyclopedia of Foreign Policy Analysis'', vol. 1. New York: Oxford University Press, 61–71.
* Smith, Theresa Clair. "Arms race instability and war". ''Journal of Conflict resolution'' 24.2 (1980): 253–284.


===German language===
⚫ * Barnet, Richard J. 1984. ''Der amerikanische Rüstungswahn.'' Reinbek: Rowohlt {{ISBN|3-499-11450-X}} {{in lang|de}}
⚫ * Bruhn, Jürgen. 1995. ''Der Kalte Krieg oder: Die Totrüstung der Sowjetunion.'' Gießen: Focus {{ISBN|3-88349-434-8}} {{in lang|de}}


{{Cold War}} {{Cold War}}
{{Authority control}}


{{DEFAULTSORT:Arms Race}}
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Latest revision as of 12:03, 6 January 2025

Competition between two or more parties to have superior armed forces For similar terms, see Nuclear arms race and Evolutionary arms race.
This article needs additional citations for verification. Please help improve this article by adding citations to reliable sources. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed.
Find sources: "Arms race" – news · newspapers · books · scholar · JSTOR (June 2007) (Learn how and when to remove this message)
Top arms exporters by country in Trend-Indicator Values (TIV)

An arms race occurs when two or more groups compete in military superiority. It consists of a competition between two or more states to have superior armed forces, concerning production of weapons, the growth of a military, and the aim of superior military technology. Unlike a sporting race, which constitutes a specific event with winning interpretable as the outcome of a singular project, arms races constitute spiralling systems of on-going and potentially open-ended behavior.

The existing scholarly literature is divided as to whether arms races correlate with war. International-relations scholars explain arms races in terms of the security dilemma, engineering spiral models, states with revisionist aims, and deterrence models.

Examples

Pre-First World War naval arms race

Main articles: Anglo-German naval arms race, World War I naval arms race (disambiguation), and South American dreadnought race
1909 cartoon in Puck shows (clockwise) US, Germany, Britain, France and Japan engaged in naval race in a "no limit" game.
The size and power of battleships grew rapidly before, during, and after World War I: a result of competitive shipbuilding among a number of naval powers, brought to an end by the Washington Naval Treaty

From 1897 to 1914, a naval arms race between the United Kingdom and Germany took place. British concern about rapid increase in German naval power resulted in a costly building competition of Dreadnought-class ships. This tense arms race lasted until 1914, when the war broke out. After the war, a new arms race developed among the victorious Allies, which was temporarily ended by the Washington Naval Treaty.

In addition to the British and Germans, contemporaneous but smaller naval arms races also broke out between Russia and the Ottoman Empire; the Ottomans and Greece; France and Italy; the United States and Japan in the 1930s; and Brazil, Argentina, and Chile.

Nuclear arms race

Main article: Nuclear arms race
United States and Soviet Union/Russia nuclear weapon stockpiles

This contest of the advancement of offensive nuclear capabilities occurred during the Cold War, an intense period between the Soviet Union and the United States and some other countries. This was one of the main causes that began the Cold War, and perceived advantages of the adversary by both sides (such as the "missile gap" and "bomber gap") led to large spending on armaments and the stockpiling of vast nuclear arsenals. Proxy wars were fought all over the world (e.g. in the Middle East, Korea, and Vietnam) in which the superpowers' conventional weapons were pitted against each other. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, tensions decreased and the nuclear arsenal of both countries were reduced.

Charles Glaser argues that numerous cases of arms races were suboptimal, as they entailed a waste of resources, damaged political relations, increased the probability of war, and hindered states in accomplishing their goals. However, arms races can be optimal for security-seeking states in situations when the offense-defense balance favors offense, when a declining state faces a rising adversary, and when advances in technology make existing weapons obsolete for the power that had an advantage in the existing weaponry.

Artificial intelligence arms race

Main article: Artificial intelligence arms race

A military artificial intelligence arms race is an arms race between two or more states to develop and deploy lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS). Since the mid-2010s, many analysts have noted the emergence of such an arms race between global superpowers for better military AI, driven by increasing geopolitical and military tensions. An AI arms race is sometimes placed in the context of an AI Cold War between the US and China.

Other uses

An evolutionary arms race is a system where two populations are evolving in order to continuously one-up members of the other population. This concept is related to the Red Queen's Hypothesis, where two organisms co-evolve to overcome each other but each fails to progress relative to the other interactant.

In technology, there are close analogues to the arms races between parasites and hosts, such as the arms race between writers of computer viruses and antivirus software, or spammers against Internet service providers and E-mail software writers.

More generically, the term is used to describe any competition where there is no absolute goal, only the relative goal of staying ahead of the other competitors in rank or knowledge. An arms race may also imply futility as the competitors spend a great deal of time and money, yet with neither side gaining an advantage over the other.

See also

References

  1. Smith, Theresa Clair (1980). "Arms Race Instability and War". Journal of Conflict Resolution. 24 (2): 255. doi:10.1177/002200278002400204. S2CID 154715176. For the purpose of this study an arms race is understood as the participation of two or more nation-states in apparently competitive or interactive increases in quantity or quality of war material and/or persons under arms.
  2. "arms race". Encyclopedia Britannica. Retrieved 2023-06-13.
  3. Documents on Disarmament. Volume 126 of Publication (United States. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency), 1983, page 312 - "[...] the goal of across-the-board supremacy [...] would mean an uncontrolled, open-ended, and very expensive arms race."
  4. ^ Glaser, Charles L. (2010). Rational Theory of International Politics. Princeton University Press. pp. 228–232. ISBN 9780691143729.
  5. Glaser, Charles L. (2000). "The Causes and Consequences of Arms Races". Annual Review of Political Science. 3 (1): 251–276. doi:10.1146/annurev.polisci.3.1.251. ISSN 1094-2939.
  6. Posen, Barry (1984). The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain, and Germany Between the World Wars. Cornell University Press. pp. 13–24. ISBN 978-0-8014-1633-0.
  7. Seligmann, Matthew S. (2016), "The Anglo-German Naval Race, 1898–1914", Arms Races in International Politics, Oxford University Press, pp. 21–40, doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198735267.003.0002, ISBN 978-0-19-873526-7
  8. Geist, Edward Moore (2016-08-15). "It's already too late to stop the AI arms race—We must manage it instead". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 72 (5): 318–321. Bibcode:2016BuAtS..72e.318G. doi:10.1080/00963402.2016.1216672. ISSN 0096-3402. S2CID 151967826.
  9. Maas, Matthijs M. (2019-02-06). "How viable is international arms control for military artificial intelligence? Three lessons from nuclear weapons". Contemporary Security Policy. 40 (3): 285–311. doi:10.1080/13523260.2019.1576464. ISSN 1352-3260. S2CID 159310223.
  10. Champion, Marc (12 December 2019). "Digital Cold War". Bloomberg. Retrieved 3 July 2021.

Further reading

  • Brose, Eric. "Arms Race prior to 1914, Armament Policy", in: 1914-1918-online. International Encyclopedia of the First World War (Freie Universität Berlin, 8 October 2014). doi:10.15463/ie1418.10219.
  • Downs, George W.; Rocke, David M.; Siverson, Randolph M. (1985). "Arms Races and Cooperation". World Politics. 38 (1): 118–146.
  • Huntington, Samuel P. 1958. "Arms Races: Prerequisites and Results", Public Policy 8: 41–86
  • Intriligator, Michael D., and Brito, Dagobert L.. "Can arms races lead to the outbreak of war?". Journal of Conflict Resolution 28.1 (1984): 63–84.
  • Mahnken, Thomas; Maiolo, Joseph; Stevenson, David (eds.). 2016. Arms Races in International Politics: From the Nineteenth to the Twenty-First Century. Oxford University Press.
  • Mitchell, David F., and Jeffrey Pickering. 2018. "Arms Buildups and the Use of Military Force". In Cameron G. Thies, ed., The Oxford Encyclopedia of Foreign Policy Analysis, vol. 1. New York: Oxford University Press, 61–71.
  • Smith, Theresa Clair. "Arms race instability and war". Journal of Conflict resolution 24.2 (1980): 253–284.

German language

  • Barnet, Richard J. 1984. Der amerikanische Rüstungswahn. Reinbek: Rowohlt ISBN 3-499-11450-X (in German)
  • Bruhn, Jürgen. 1995. Der Kalte Krieg oder: Die Totrüstung der Sowjetunion. Gießen: Focus ISBN 3-88349-434-8 (in German)
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