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{{Short description|Hypothesis that some unidentified flying objects are created by extraterrestrial life}}
{{Multiple issues|disputed=December 2007|POV=December 2007|citation style=21:05, 13 October 2010 (UTC)}}
{{Multiple issues|
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{{Ufo}}


The '''extraterrestrial hypothesis''' ('''ETH''') proposes that some ]s (UFOs) are best explained as being physical ] occupied by ] or non-human aliens, or non-occupied alien probes from ] visiting ]. In spite of ardent believers that various UFO sightings are verifiable evidence for the hypothesis, no rigorous analysis has ever concluded as much.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Lagatta |first=James Powel and Eric |title=Director of Pentagon's UAP office testifies: No 'verifiable evidence' of aliens |url=https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/11/19/jon-kosloski-ufo-uap-all-domain-anomaly-aliens/76433923007/ |access-date=2025-01-07 |website=USA TODAY |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Impey |first=Chris |date=2023-09-15 |title=NASA report finds no evidence that UFOs are extraterrestrial |url=https://theconversation.com/nasa-report-finds-no-evidence-that-ufos-are-extraterrestrial-213528 |access-date=2025-01-07 |website=The Conversation |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2006-05-07 |title=UFOs? No such thing, secret U.K. study finds |url=https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna11923778 |access-date=2025-01-07 |website=NBC News |language=en}}</ref>
[[File:P70.gif|thumb|Amateur photographs from Sheffield, England, 4 March 1962
& Minneapolis, Minnesota, 20 October 1960. Taken from a 1997 CIA training manual.<ref>Haines, Gerald K, </ref>]]


==Origins of the term==
The '''extraterrestrial hypothesis''' ('''ETH''') is the ] that some ]s (UFOs) are best explained as being ] or non-human aliens from ] occupying physical ] visiting ]. This hypothesis is considered spurious by most<ref name=50plus/> scientists<ref></ref> due to both ] and ].
Use of the term ''extraterrestrial hypothesis'' in printed material on UFOs seems to date to at least the latter half of the 1960s. French ] ] used it in his 1966 book ''Challenge to science: the UFO enigma''. It was used in a publication by French engineer ] in 1967,<ref>{{cite book |first=Michel |last=Aimé |year=1967 |title=The Truth About Flying Saucers |publisher=Pyramid Books |asin=B0007DRR38}}</ref> by ] in a symposium in March 1968<ref>{{cite web|url=https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=WWNkAAAAIBAJ&pg=892,4105658&dq=extra-terrestrial-hypothesis&hl=en|title=The Calgary Herald - Google News Archive Search|website=news.google.com}}</ref> and again by McDonald and ] while testifying before the Congressional Committee on Science and Astronautics, in July 1968.<ref name=harder1>{{cite web |url=http://ncas.sawco.com/ufosymposium/harder.html |title=Testimony of Dr. J. A. Harder before the Congressional Committee on Science and Astronautics, 29 July 1968 |date=October 2006 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060206064749/http://ncas.sawco.com/ufosymposium/harder.html |archive-date=6 February 2006 }}</ref> Skeptic ] used it in his 1968 book ''UFOs--Identified.''<ref>{{cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=u9bS1YhiSa4C&q=%22extraterrestrial+hypothesis%22|title=UFOs--identified|first=Philip J.|last=Klass|date=1 February 1968|publisher=Random House|isbn=9780394450032|via=Google Books}}</ref> In 1969 physicist ] defined the "extraterrestrial hypothesis" or "ETH" as the "idea that ''some'' UFOs may be spacecraft sent to Earth from another civilization or space other than Earth, or on a planet associated with a more distant star," while presenting the findings of the much debated ]. Some UFO historians credit Condon with popularizing the term and its abbreviation "ETH."
It is often a target for intentional ]es.<ref>, Volume 33.1, January / February 2009</ref>

==Etymology==
Origins of the term ''extraterrestrial hypothesis'' are unknown. It was used in a publication by French engineer ] in 1967<ref>{{cite book |first=Michel |last=Aimé |year=1967 |title=The Truth About Flying Saucers |publisher=Pyramid Books |asin=B0007DRR38}}</ref> and again by ], while testifying before the Congressional Committee on Science and Astronautics, in July 1968.<ref name=harder1>{{cite web |url=http://ncas.sawco.com/ufosymposium/harder.html |title=Testimony of Dr. J A Harder before the Congressional Committee on Science and Astronautics, 29 July 1968 |date=October 2006}}</ref> In 1969 physicist ] defined ETH as the "idea that ''some'' UFOs may be spacecraft sent to Earth from another civilization or space other than earth, or on a planet associated with a more distant star," while presenting the findings of the much debated ].


==Chronology== ==Chronology==
Although ETH, as a unified and named hypothesis, is a comparatively new concept - one which owes a lot to the ''saucer sightings'' of the 1940s–1960s. ETH can trace its origins back to a number of earlier events such as the now discredited ]s promoted by astronomer ], popular culture including the writings of ] and fellow science fiction pioneers, and even to the works of figures such as the Swedish ], ] and scientist ], who promoted a variety of unconventional views that linked other worlds to the ].<ref name=Swedenborg>Swedenborg, Emanuel (1758) ''Concerning the Earths in Our Solar System.....''</ref> Although the extraterrestrial hypothesis (ETH) as a phrase is a comparatively new concept, one which owes much to the flying saucer sightings of the 1940s–1960s, its origins can be traced back to a number of earlier events, such as the now-discredited ] and ancient Martian civilization promoted by astronomer ], popular culture including the writings of ] and fellow science fiction pioneers such as ], who likewise wrote of Martian civilizations, and even to the works of figures such as the Swedish ], ] and scientist ], who promoted a variety of unconventional views that linked other worlds to the ].<ref name=Swedenborg>Swedenborg, Emanuel (1758) ''Concerning the Earths in Our Solar System ...''</ref>


In the early part of the twentieth century, ] collected accounts of anomalous physical phenomena from newspapers and scientific journals, including many reports of extraordinary aerial objects. These were published in 1919 in ''The Book of the Damned''. In this and two subsequent books, ''New Lands'' (1923) and ''Lo!'' (1931), Fort theorized that visitors from other worlds were observing Earth. Fort's reports of aerial phenomena were frequently cited in American newspapers when the UFO phenomenon first attracted widespread media attention in June and July 1947.
===Historical reports of extraterrestrial visits===
An early example of speculation over extraterrestrial visitors can be found in the French newspaper ''Le Pays'', which on June 17, 1864, published a story about two American geologists who had allegedly discovered an alien-like creature, a mummified three-foot-tall hairless humanoid with a trunk-like appendage on its forehead, inside a hollow ] structure.<ref>Jacobs David M (2000), “UFOs and Abductions: Challenging the Borders of Knowledge”, University Press of Kansas, ISBN 0-7006-1032-4 (Compiled work quoting Jerome Clark; "So far as is known, the first mention of an extraterrestrial spacecraft was published in the 17 June 1864 issue of a French newspaper, ], which ran an allegedly real but clearly fabulous account of a discovery by two American geologists of a hollow, egg-shaped structure holding the three-foot mummified body of a hairless humanoid with a trunk protruding from the middle of his forehead.")</ref>


The modern ETH—specifically, the implicit linking of unidentified aircraft and lights in the sky to alien life—took root during the late 1940s and took its current form during the 1950s. It drew on ], as well as popular culture. Unlike earlier speculation of extraterrestrial life, interest in the ETH was also bolstered by many unexplained sightings investigated by the U.S. government and governments of other countries, as well as private civilian groups, such as ] and ].
A further report can be found in the ] (]), which, in October 1865, reported on the story of Rocky Mountain trapper James Lumley, who claimed to have discovered fragments of rock bearing "curious hieroglyphics" which seemed to form a compartmentalized object which he believed was being used to transport "an animate being", after investigating a meteor impact near ]. The newspaper goes on to speculate "Possibly, meteors could be used as a means of conveyance by the inhabitants of other planets, in exploring space".<ref name=misdemoc>Missouri Democrat, October 19, 1865, (), (October 2006)</ref>


===Historical reports of extraterrestrial visits===
] in his 1898 science fiction classic ] popularized, perhaps for the first time, the idea of Martian visitation and invasion. However, even before Wells, there was a sudden upsurge in reports in "]s" in the U.S. UFO historians ] and ] note that extraterrestrial visitation, particularly from Mars, was sometimes proposed to explain these mystery airship waves. For example, the Washington ‘’Times’’ in 1897 speculated that the airships were "a reconnoitering party from Mars" and the Saint Louis ‘’Post-Dispatch’’ wrote, "these may be visitors from Mars, fearful, at the last, of invading the planet they have been seeking." <ref>David Michael Jacobs, ''The UFO Controversy In America'', p. 29, Indiana University Press, 1975, ISBN 0-253-19006-1</ref> Later there was a more international airship wave from 1909-1912. An example of an extraterrestrial explanation at the time was a 1909 letter to a New Zealand newspaper suggested "atomic powered spaceships from Mars.” <ref>Jerome Clark, ''The UFO Book'', 1998, 199-200</ref>
An early example of speculation over extraterrestrial visitors can be found in the French newspaper ''Le Pays'', which on June&nbsp;17, 1864, published a story about two American geologists who had allegedly discovered an alien-like creature, a mummified three-foot-tall hairless humanoid with a trunk-like appendage on its forehead, inside a hollow ] structure.<ref>Jacobs David M (2000), "UFOs and Abductions: Challenging the Borders of Knowledge", University Press of Kansas, {{ISBN|0-7006-1032-4}} (Compiled work quoting Jerome Clark; "So far as is known, the first mention of an extraterrestrial spacecraft was published in the 17 June 1864 issue of a French newspaper, '']'', which ran an allegedly real but clearly fabulous account of a discovery by two American geologists of a hollow, egg-shaped structure holding the three-foot mummified body of a hairless humanoid with a trunk protruding from the middle of his forehead.")</ref>


], in his 1898 science fiction classic '']'', popularized the idea of Martian visitation and invasion. Even before Wells, there was a sudden upsurge in reports in "]s" in the United States. For example, ''The Washington Times'' in 1897 speculated that the airships were "a reconnoitering party from Mars", and the ''Saint Louis Post-Dispatch'' wrote: "these may be visitors from Mars, fearful, at the last, of invading the planet they have been seeking."<ref>David Michael Jacobs, ''The UFO Controversy In America'', p. 29, Indiana University Press, 1975, {{ISBN|0-253-19006-1}}</ref> Later, there was a more international airship wave from 1909-1912. An example of an extraterrestrial explanation at the time was a 1909 letter to a New Zealand newspaper suggesting "atomic powered spaceships from Mars."<ref>Jerome Clark, ''The UFO Book'', 1998, 199-200</ref>
From the 1920s the idea of alien visitation in space ships was commonplace in popular comic strips and radio and movie serials such as ] and ]. In particular, Flash Gordon serials have Earth being attacked from space by alien meteors, ray beams, and biological weapons. In 1938 a radio broadcast version '' of ]'' by ], using a contemporary setting for H. G. Wells’ Martian invasion, created some public panic in the U.S. This would later figure into some commentary on what was happening in 1947 when “flying saucers” finally hit the U.S.


From the 1920s, the idea of alien visitation in space ships was commonplace in popular comic strips and radio and movie serials, such as ] and ]. In particular, the Flash Gordon serials have the Earth being attacked from space by alien meteors, ray beams, and biological weapons. In 1938, a radio broadcast version of '']'' by ], using a contemporary setting for H.&nbsp;G. Wells' Martian invasion, created some public panic in the United States.
===''UFOs and ETH (Extraterrestrial Hypothesis)''===


===The 1947 flying saucer wave in America===
Regarding modern UFO sightings and their link to the ETH, literature professor and skeptic Terry Matheson wrote, "…sightings of unidentifiable lights the sky had been taking place for centuries, but only after ]’s ] on June 24, 1947, near ], ] (see below), were they explicitly theorized to be extraterrestrial in origin." <ref>Matheson Terry (1998); “Alien Abduction: Creating A Modern Phenomenon”, Prometheus Books, ISBN 1-57392-244-7</ref>
On June 24, 1947, at about 3:00&nbsp;p.m. local time, pilot ] reported seeing nine unidentified disk-shaped aircraft flying near ].<ref>Chicago Daily Tribune (June 26, 1947)</ref><ref>Arnold Kenneth, , (October 1947)</ref> When no aircraft emerged that seemed to account for what he had seen, Arnold quickly considered the possibility of the objects being extraterrestrial. On July 7, 1947, two stories came out where Arnold was raising the topic of possible extraterrestrial origins, both as his opinion and those who had written to him. In an Associated Press story, Arnold said he had received quantities of ] eager to help solve the mystery. Some of them "suggested the discs were visitations from another planet."<ref>Associated Press story, July 7, 1947, e.g., Salt Lake City ''Deseret News'', p. 3, "Author of 'Discs' Story To Seek Proof" </ref><ref>Chicago 'Times', July 7, 1947, p. 3</ref><ref>Kenneth Arnold; Speaking to Journalist Edward R. Murrow (April 7, 1950), care of </ref><ref>Spokane ''Daily Chronicle'', p.1, June 27, 1947, "More Sky-Gazers Tell About Seeing the Flying Piepans"; Eugene (OR) Register-Guard, p.1, June 27, 1947; Bremerton (Washington) ''Sun'', June 28, 1947, "Eerie 'Whatsit objects' In Sky Observed Here."</ref>


When the 1947 flying saucer wave hit the United States, there was much speculation in the newspapers about what they might be in news stories, columns, editorials, and letters to the editor. For example, on July 10, U.S. Senator ] of Idaho commented, "I almost wish the flying saucers would turn out to be space ships from another planet," because the possibility of hostility "would unify the people of the earth as nothing else could." On July 8, ] was quoted by UP saying that the saucers had been seen since the early nineteenth century. If the present discs weren't secret Army weapons, he suggested they could be vehicles from Mars, or other planets, or maybe even "things out of other dimensions of time and space."<ref>Jerome Clark, ''UFO Encyclopedia'', p. 202-203</ref> Other articles brought up the work of ], who earlier in the twentieth century had documented numerous reports of unidentified flying objects that had been written up in newspapers and scientific journals.<ref>{{cite web |url= https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=rUohAAAAIBAJ&pg=2393,814473&dq=charles+fort&hl=en |title=Schenectady Gazette - Google News Archive Search |website=news.google.com}}</ref>
The modern ETH - specifically the implicit linking of unidentified aircraft and lights in the sky to alien life - took root during the late 1940s and took its current form during the 1950s. It drew on ] as well as popular culture. However, unlike earlier speculation of extraterrestrial life, interest in the ETH was also bolstered by many unexplained sightings investigated by government and private civilian groups, such as ] and ].


Even if people thought the saucers were real, most were generally unwilling to leap to the conclusion that they were extraterrestrial in origin. Various popular theories began to quickly proliferate in press articles, such as secret military projects, Russian spy devices, hoaxes, ], and ]. According to journalist Edward R. Murrow, the ETH as a serious explanation for "flying saucers" did not earn widespread attention until about 18 months after Arnold's sighting.<ref name=uforaddocu>] (April 7, 1950) '''', CBS News (Radio Documentary available in MP3/Real Media), (October 2006)</ref>
====The 1947 U.S. flying saucer wave====
On June 24, 1947, at about 3.00 p.m. local time, pilot ] reported seeing nine unidentified disk-shaped aircraft flying near ].<ref>Chicago Daily Tribune (June 26, 1947)</ref><ref>Arnold Kenneth, , (October 1947)</ref>


These attitudes seem to be reflected in the results of the first U.S. poll of public UFO perceptions released by ] on August 14, 1947.<ref name="jacko1">Jacobs David M (2000), "UFOs and Abductions: Challenging the Borders of Knowledge", University Press of Kansas, {{ISBN|0-7006-1032-4}} (Compiled work: section sourced from Jerome Clark)</ref> The term "flying saucer" was familiar to 90% of the respondents. As to what people thought explained them, the poll further showed, that most people either held no opinion or refused to answer the question (33%), or generally believed that there was a mundane explanation. 29% thought they were ]s, ]s, or imagination; 15% a U.S. secret weapon; 10% a ]; 3% a "weather forecasting device"; 1% of Soviet origin, and 9% had "other explanations," including fulfillment of ] ], secret commercial aircraft, or phenomena related to ].<ref></ref>
Arnold said the objects moved as if they were a saucer skipping across water, but also described the shape as thin, flat, and disc-like or saucer-like (also like a "pie-plate," "pie-pan," and "half-moon shaped")--see ] article for detailed quotes. Three days later, the terms "flying disc" and "flying saucer" first appeared in newspapers and became the preferred terms for the phenomenon for a number of years, until largely replaced in the 1950s and 1960s by UFO.


===U.S. military investigation and debunkery===
Though he was impressed by their high speed and quick movements, Arnold did not initially consider the ETH, stating,
On July 9, Army Air Forces Intelligence began a secret study of the best saucer reports, including that of Arnold's. A follow-up study by the ] intelligence and engineering departments at ], Ohio led to the formation of the U.S. Air Force's ] at the end of 1947, the first official U.S. military UFO study.


In 1948, Project Sign concluded without endorsing any unified explanation for all UFO reports, and the <abbr title="extraterrestrial hypothesis">ETH</abbr> was rejected by USAF Chief of Staff General ], citing a lack of physical evidence. Vandenberg dismantled Project Sign, and with this official policy in place, subsequent public Air Force reports concluded, that there was insufficient evidence to warrant further investigation of UFOs.{{citation needed|date=August 2015}}
:"I assumed at the time they were a new formation or a new type of ], though I was baffled by the fact that they did not have any tails. They passed almost directly in front of me, but at a distance of about 23 miles, which is not very great in the air. I judged their wingspan to be at least 100 feet across. Their flying did not particularly disturb me at the time, except that I had never seen planes of that type."


In 1952, Life Magazine published "]" which popularized the Extraterrestrial Hypothesis and is thought to have triggered the ].<ref name="Mazur">{{Cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=rjwrDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA123|title=Implausible Beliefs: In the Bible, Astrology, and UFOs|first=Allan|last=Mazur|date=July 5, 2017|publisher=Routledge|isbn=978-1-351-51322-7 |via=Google Books}}</ref> Immediately following the great UFO wave of 1952 and the military debunking of radar and visual sightings, plus jet interceptions over Washington, D.C. in August, the CIA's Office of Scientific Investigation took particular interest in UFOs. Though the ETH was mentioned, it was generally given little credence. However, others within the CIA, such as the ], were more concerned about how an unfriendly power such as the Soviet Union might use UFOs for psychological warfare purposes, exploit the gullibility of the public for the sensational, and clog intelligence channels. Under a directive from the ] to review the problem, in January 1953, the CIA organized the ],<ref>Timothy Good, ''Above Top Secret'', 328-335</ref> a group of scientists who quickly reviewed the Blue Book's best evidence, including motion pictures and an engineering report that concluded that the performance characteristics were beyond that of earthly craft. After two days' review, all cases were claimed to have conventional explanations. An official policy of public debunkery was recommended using the mass media and authority figures in order to influence public opinion and reduce the number of UFO reports.
However, when no aircraft emerged that seemed to account for what he had seen, Arnold clearly did consider the possibility of the objects being extraterrestrial. In the same 1950 interview with journalist ] Arnold added, "...if it's not made by our science or our Army Air Forces, I am inclined to believe it's of an extraterrestrial origin." <ref>Kenneth Arnold; Speaking to Journalist Edward R. Murrow (April 7, 1950), ( care of </ref>


===Evolution of public opinion===
When the flying saucer wave hit the U.S., even if people thought the saucers were real, they were generally unwilling to leap to the conclusion that they were extraterrestrial in origin. Various theories began to quickly proliferate in press articles, such as secret military projects, Russian spy devices, hoaxes, and mass hysteria, but the ETH was not generally among them. According to Murrow, the ETH as an explanation for "flying saucers" did not earn widespread attention until about 18 months after Arnold's sighting.<ref name=uforaddocu>] (April 7, 1950) '''', CBS News (Radio Documentary available in MP3/Real Media), (October 2006)</ref>
The early 1950s also saw a number of movies depicting flying saucers and aliens, including '']'' (1951), '']'' (1953), '']'' (1956), and '']'' (1956). A poll published in '']'' magazine in August 1951 reported that of the respondents who self-reported as UFO witnesses, 52% believed that they had seen a man-made aircraft, while only 4% believed that they had seen an alien craft; an additional 28% were uncertain, with more than half of these stating they believed they were either man-made aircraft, or "visitors from afar."<ref>{{cite web |title=Popular Science Archive |url=http://www.popsci.com/archive-viewer?id=lyEDAAAAMBAJ&pg=74&query=flying+saucer |publisher=] |access-date=2011-01-30 |archive-date=2016-01-07 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160107005919/http://www.popsci.com/archive-viewer?id=lyEDAAAAMBAJ&pg=74&query=flying+saucer |url-status=dead }}</ref> By 1957, 25% of Americans responded that they either believed, or were willing to believe in the ETH, while 53% responded that they were not. 22% reported that they were uncertain.<ref name="50plus"/>{{Failed verification|date=February 2009}}<ref name="trendx1">Trendex Poll, St. Louis Globe Democrat (August 24, 1957)</ref>


A ] poll in 2002 reported that 56% of respondents thought UFOs were real, with 48% believing that UFOs had visited Earth.<ref> {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071203015119/http://www.scifi.com/ufo/roper/05.html |date=December 3, 2007 }}</ref>
These attitudes seem to be reflected in the results of the first US poll of public UFO perceptions released by ] on August 14, 1947.<ref name=jacko1>Jacobs David M (2000), “UFOs and Abductions: Challenging the Borders of Knowledge”, University Press of Kansas, ISBN 0-7006-1032-4 (Compiled work: section sourced from Jerome Clark)</ref> The term "flying saucer" was familiar to 90% of the respondents. It further showed that most people either held no opinion (33%), or believed that there was a mundane explanation for apparent UFOs. 29% thought they were an ], 15% a US secret weapon, 10% a ], 3% a “weather forecasting device”, 1% of Soviet origin, and 9% had “other explanations”, including fulfillment of ] ], secret commercial aircraft, or related to ].


===Religion===
On July 10, U.S. Senator ] of Idaho commented, “I almost wish the flying saucers would turn out to be space ships from another planet,” because the possibility of hostility “would unify the people of the earth as nothing else could.” On July 8, Dewitt Miller was quoted by UP saying that the saucers had been seen since the early nineteenth century. If the present discs weren’t secret Army weapons, he suggested they could be vehicles from Mars or other planets or maybe even “things out of other dimensions of time and space.” <ref>Jerome Clark, ''UFO Encyclopedia’’, p. 202-203</ref> At the same time, several nationally syndicated columns by humorist Hal Boyle spoke of a green man from Mars in his flying saucer (see ]).
{{Further information|UFO religion}}


===Fewer sightings despite camera phone technology===
Even Arnold commented along these lines. In a June 28 article, he described an encounter he had with a near-hysterical woman in ], shrieking, "there's the man who saw the men from Mars." Arnold then added, "This whole thing has gotten out of hand... Half the people I see look at me as a combination Einstein, Flash Gordon and screwball." <ref>Bremerton (Washington) ''Sun'', June 28, 1947, "Eerie 'Whatsit objects' In Sky Observed Here."</ref>
As the proliferation of smartphone camera technology across the population has not led to a significant increase in recorded UFO sightings, the claimed ''phenomenology'' of UFOs has been called into question.<ref>{{cite web|title=Why have we stopped seeing UFOs in the skies? – Stuart Walton - Aeon Essays|url=https://aeon.co/essays/why-have-we-stopped-seeing-ufos-in-the-skies}}</ref> This goes counter to the predictions of supporters of the extraterrestrial hypothesis, even causing a crisis of confidence among some within the informal UFO research community.<ref>{{Cite news|last=Jaekl|first=Philip|date=2018-09-21|title=What is behind the decline in UFO sightings?|language=en-GB|work=The Guardian|url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/21/what-is-behind-the-decline-in-ufo-sightings|access-date=2020-04-30|issn=0261-3077}}</ref>


===Involvement of scientists===<!--Opinions among and research by scientists-->
====Military investigations begin: ETH conclusion and debunkery====
The ] has shown very little support for the <abbr title="extraterrestrial hypothesis">ETH</abbr>, and has largely accepted the explanation that reports of UFOs are the result of people misinterpreting common objects or phenomena, or are the work of hoaxers. Professor ] has expressed skepticism about the ETH.<ref name=hawking1>Hawking Stephen, {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120210233225/http://www.hawking.org.uk/space-and-time-warps.html |date=2012-02-10 }}</ref> In a 1969 lecture, U.S. astrophysicist ] said:
On July 9, Army Air Force Intelligence began a secret study of the best saucer reports, including Arnold's. A follow-up study by the ] intelligence and engineering departments at ] Ohio led to the formation the U.S. Air Force's ] at the end of 1947, the first official U.S. military UFO study.


:"The idea of benign or hostile space aliens from other planets visiting the Earth an emotional idea. There are two sorts of self-deception here: either accepting the idea of extraterrestrial visitation by space aliens in the face of very meager evidence because we want it to be true; or rejecting such an idea out of hand, in the absence of sufficient evidence, because we don't want it to be true. Each of these extremes is a serious impediment to the study of UFOs."<ref name=saganandpage>Sagan Carl, Page Thornton (1972), "UFOs: A Scientific Debate". Cornell University Press, {{ISBN|0-8014-0740-0}}</ref>
In the summer of 1948, Project Sign wrote their ], which concluded that the remaining unidentified sightings were best explained by the ETH. However, the report ultimately was rejected by the USAF Chief of Staff, General ], citing a lack of physical evidence, and its existence was not publicly disclosed until 1956 by later ] director ]. Ruppelt also indicated that Vandenberg dismantled Project Sign after they wrote their ETH conclusion.


Similarly, British astrophysicist ] wrote
With this official policy in place, all subsequent public Air Force reports concluded that there was either insufficient evidence to link UFOs and ETH, or that UFOs did not warrant investigation.


:"for many years, discussions of the UFO issue have remained narrowly polarized between advocates and adversaries of a single theory, namely the extraterrestrial hypothesis&nbsp;... this fixation on the ETH has narrowed and impoverished the debate, precluding an examination of other possible theories for the phenomenon."<ref name=sturrock>Sturrock Peter A (1999), "The UFO Enigma: A New Review of the Physical Evidence", Warner Books, {{ISBN|0-446-52565-0}}</ref>
Immediately following the great UFO wave of 1952 and military debunkery of the radar and visual sightings plus jet interceptions over Washington, D.C. in August, the CIA’s Office of Scientific Investigation took particularly interest in UFOs. Though the ETH was mentioned, it was generally given little credence. However, others within the CIA, such as the ], were more concerned about how an unfriendly power such as the Soviet Union might use UFOs for psychological warfare purposes, exploit the gullibility of the public for the sensational, and clog intelligence channels. Under a directive from the ] to review the problem, in January 1953, the CIA organized the ],<ref>Timothy Good, ''Above Top Secret'', 328-335</ref> a group of scientists who quickly reviewed the Blue Book’s best evidence, including motion pictures and an engineering report that concluded that the performance characteristics were beyond that of earthly craft. After only two days' review, all cases were claimed to have conventional explanations. An official policy of public debunkery was recommended using the mass media and authority figures in order to influence public opinion and reduce the number of UFO reports.


An informal poll done by Sturrock in 1973 of ] members found that about 10% of them believed that UFOs were vehicles from outer space.<ref name=50plus>John F. Schuessler (January 2000), {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20051111004644/http://www.mufon.com/znews_publicopinion.html |date=2005-11-11 }}</ref>{{Failed verification|date=February 2009}}<ref>; 1973.</ref>{{Failed verification|date=December 2015}} In another poll conducted in 1977, Sturrock asked members of the ] to assign probabilities to eight possible explanations for UFOs. The results were:<ref name=50plus/>{{Failed verification|date=February 2009}}
====Evolution of public opinion====
The early 1950s also saw a number of movies depicting flying saucers and aliens, including '']'' (1951), '']'', '']'' (1956), and '']'' (1956).

Despite this, public belief in ETH seems to have remained low during the early 1950s, even among those reporting UFOs. A poll published in '']'' magazine, in August 1951, showed that 52% of UFO witnesses questioned believed that they had seen a man-made aircraft, while only 4% believed that they had seen an alien craft.<ref name=jacko1/> However, within a few years, belief in ETH had increased due to the activities of people such as retired U.S. Marine Corp officer Maj. ], who campaigned to raise public awareness of the UFO phenomena. By 1957, 25% of Americans responded that they either believed, or were willing to believe, in ETH, while 53% responded that they weren't (though a majority of these respondents indicated they thought UFOs to be real but of earthly origin). 22% said that they were uncertain.<ref name=50plus/><ref name=trendx1>Trendex Poll, St. Louis Globe Democrat (August 24, 1957)</ref>

During this time, the ETH also fragmented into distinct camps, each believing slightly different variations of the hypothesis. The "]" of the early 1950s said that the "]" they met were peaceful and benevolent, but by the mid-1960s, a number of alleged ]s; including that of ], and of the apparent ] cast the ETH in more sinister terms.

Opinion polls indicate that public belief in the ETH has continued to rise since then. For example, a 1997 Gallup poll of the U.S. public indicated that 87% knew about UFOs, 48% believed them to be real (vs. 33% who thought them to be imaginary), and 45% believed they had visited Earth.<ref></ref> Similarly a Roper poll from 2002 found 56% thought UFOs to be real and 48% thought they had visited Earth.<ref></ref>

Polls also indicate that the public believes even more strongly that the government is suppressing evidence about UFOs. For example, in both the cited Gallup and Roper polls, the figure was about 70%.

==Geography==
ETH has the difficult and unusual position of conflicting with both ] and ], unfortunately, often, occupying the same space as the ].

====Scientists====
{{POV-check|date=August 2010}}
{{Story|date=August 2010}}

Scientists often attack ETH for its lack of provable evidence and contention with the fundamental laws of physics. The two most common arguments are:
*If aliens had visited the planet then we would have some solid proof of it.
*any possible alien life out there would so far away from Earth that it would take millions of years for them to travel here.
Both of these are good arguments but have two major flaws.
*Scientists, especially Quantum Theorists and Cosmologists, often use principles such as Dark Matter, String Theory and Quantum Superposition and present them as fact when they are only, really, our best attempt at explaining certain observations using current technology and theory. There exists no ''solid'' evidence for them.
*As scientists often point out, we don't know everything, yet. There are still many mysteries out there in the universe that we don't know about. Dark matter is a concept that was hypothesised to explain the apparent lack of ] in the universe due to discrepancies in measurements (read the article on ] for more info). One of the discrepancies comes from the ] measurements calculated, a theory that has formed much of the cornerstone of advanced physics for the past hundred years, yet even that has recently been questioned in a paper by Rachel Bean;<ref name="Bean">{{cite journal|last1=Bean|first1=Rachel|last2=Tangmatitham|first2=Matipon|title=Current constraints on the cosmic growth history|url=http://arxiv.org/abs/1002.4197|journal=Physical Review D|volume=81|pages=083534|year=2010|doi=10.1103/PhysRevD.81.083534}}</ref><ref name="New Scientist">New Scientist #2731, p8</ref> not whether it's right, but whether it needs expanding.
The latter invites the question "Could an advanced alien species, with a better understanding of the universe, develop methods of travel that are, as yet, unknown to us?".

====More science needed: 'An extraordinary phenomenon requires an extraordinary investigation'<ref name="ufosontherecord.com">Leslie Kean, , Harmony Books, New York, 2010</ref>====
{{Unreferenced section|date=September 2010}}
{{Original research|date=September 2010}}
To date, there has been no scientific calculation published taking into account the most recent science on the observable universe, as to whether it is possible that ETs are visiting Earth in advanced spacecraft. Considering the vastness and age of the universe, as revealed through the work of the ] and subsequent astronomical surveys utilising space-based observations, this is certainly a calculable possibility. Imagine space-faring civilisations that were a million years old or more. What would they be capable of? The ] has attempted this calculation, but only for our own galaxy, and does not include any reference to the 80 billion other galaxies that make up the ]. Because the Drake Equation is also based on known laws of physics, it assumes the transportation barrier of light speed cannot be exceeded or circumvented. Both of these parameters in the equation drastically limit the calculation when compared with the scale of the observable universe. It is also wise to acknowledge the ongoing nature of science - all previous scientific theories have had to give way when a better one contradicts or modifies its relevance as an explanation of available data. To begin with, the Drake Equation should be modified to include some kind of reference to the number of galaxies in the observable universe, and the probability that our current laws of physics will be superseded (as they inevitably will according to the principle of ]). To be truly neutral, to not prematurely cast a vote for the finality of the laws of physics as we currently know them, we have to recognise the probability that these laws are only an early stage on the pathway of a scientific civilisation capable of interstellar space flight, and whose age is measured in thousands or millions of years. The ] would turn out not be a paradox at all. But this would take convincing evidence.

One possibility would be to give proper recognition to the available evidence surrounding the 5% of anomalous aerial phenomena that elude all logical explanations. Political scientists Dr ] and Dr Raymond Duvall have published a paper that seeks to explain the reasons why little serious consideration has been given to these sightings by scientists and governments around the world, despite their ubiquity and good corroborating evidence. Entitled , their paper proposes that the reason why the phenomenon has not been accorded any proper attention is that it fundamentally threatens all notions of human sovereignty.<ref>Alexander Wendt and Raymond Duvall, "Sovereignty and the UFO", , vol 36, no 4, August 2008, pp. 607-633</ref> Journalist Leslie Kean has attempted to draw attention to this growing body of evidence and witness testimony in , which details the available evidence of the most elusive UFO sightings ever seen, which includes correlated visual observations, ground and air-based radar readings and recordings, and in some cases electro-magnetic effects on electronic equipment.<ref name="ufosontherecord.com"/> Many of these cases are fully documented in from a growing list of countries. An international agency could be established to study this phenomenon, in conjunction with small national agencies responsible for rapid response to all major sightings and collection of all available information.

====Religionists====
{{see|Exotheology}}

==Analyzing ETH==

In a 1969 lecture U.S. astrophysicist ] said:

:"The idea of benign or hostile space aliens from other planets visiting the earth an emotional idea. There are two sorts of self-deception here: either accepting the idea of extraterrestrial visitation by space aliens in the face of very meager evidence because we want it to be true; or rejecting such an idea out of hand, in the absence of sufficient evidence, because we don't want it to be true. Each of these extremes is a serious impediment to the study of UFOs.".<ref name=saganandpage>Sagan Carl, Page Thornton (1972), “UFOs: A Scientific Debate”. Cornell University Press, ISBN 0-8014-0740-0</ref>

Similarly, British astrophysicist ] wrote that for many years,

:"discussions of the UFO issue have remained narrowly polarized between advocates and adversaries of a single theory, namely the extraterrestrial hypothesis ... this fixation on the ETH has narrowed and impoverished the debate, precluding an examination of other possible theories for the phenomenon."<ref name=sturrock>Sturrock Peter A (1999), “The UFO Enigma: A New Review of the Physical Evidence”, Warner Books, ISBN 0-446-52565-0</ref>

==Opinions among scientists==
The ] has shown very little support for the ETH, and has largely accepted the explanation that reports of UFOs are the result of people misinterpreting common objects or phenomena, or are the work of hoaxers.

A cited example of this was an informal poll conducted in 1977 by astrophysicist ], surveying the members of the ]. Sturrock asked polled scientists to assign probabilities to eight possible explanations for UFOs. The results were:<ref name=50plus>John F. Schuessler (January 2000), </ref> {{Failed verification|date=February 2009}}


{| class="wikitable" {| class="wikitable"
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The primary scientific arguments against ETH were summarized by astronomer and UFO researcher ] during a presentation at the 1983 ] Symposium, where he outlined seven key reasons why he could not accept the ETH.<ref>Hynek, J. Allen (1983), "The case against ET", in Walter H. Andrus, Jr., and Dennis W. Stacy (eds), ] UFO Symposium</ref>
An earlier poll done by Sturrock in 1973 of ] members found that a somewhat higher 10% believed UFOs were vehicles from outer space.<ref name=50plus>John F. Schuessler (January 2000), </ref>


# Failure of sophisticated surveillance systems to detect incoming or outgoing UFOs
===For===
# Gravitational and atmospheric considerations
Physicist ] on his "ufoskeptic" website <ref>http://www.ufoskeptic.org/ Bernard Haisch "ufoskeptic" website</ref> presents a number of counterarguments to those of Hynek. Haisch argues he is convinced something is going on and that modern theories of physics and cosmology might support extraterrestrial or even interdimensional origins for UFOs.
# Statistical considerations

# Elusive, evasive and absurd behavior of UFOs and their occupants
In a 1969 report to the ], the late American physicist ] summarized his reasons for not dismissing ETH:
# Isolation of the UFO phenomenon in time and space: the ] effect

# The space unworthiness of UFOs
:"Present evidence surely does not amount to incontrovertible proof of the extraterrestrial hypothesis. What I find scientifically dismaying is that, while a large body of UFO evidence now seems to point in no other direction than the extraterrestrial hypothesis, the profoundly important implications of that possibility are going unconsidered by the scientific community because this entire problem has been imputed to be little more than a nonsense matter unworthy of serious scientific attention." <ref name=McDonald1>McDonald, James E., (December 27, 1969), </ref>
# The problem of astronomical distances

===Against===

The primary scientific arguments against ETH were summarized by Astronomer and UFO researcher ] during a presentation at the 1983 ] Symposium. During which time he outlined seven key reasons why he could not accept the ETH.<ref>Hynek, J. Allen (1983), “The case against ET”, in Walter H. Andrus, Jr., and Dennis W. Stacy (eds), ] UFO Symposium</ref>

# "Failure of Sophisticated Surveillance Systems to Detect Incoming or Outgoing UFOs"
# "Gravitational and Atmospheric Considerations"
# "Statistical Considerations"
# "Elusive, Evasive and Absurd Behavior of UFOs and Their Occupants"
# "Isolation of the UFO Phenomenon in Time and Space: The ] Effect"
# "The Space Unworthiness of UFOs"
# "The Problem of Astronomical Distances"


Hynek argued that: Hynek argued that:


#Despite worldwide ] systems and Earth-orbiting satellites, UFOs are alleged to flit in and out of the atmosphere, leaving little to no evidence. # Despite worldwide ] systems and Earth-orbiting satellites, UFOs are alleged to flit in and out of the atmosphere, leaving little to no evidence.
#Space aliens are alleged to be overwhelmingly ], and are allegedly able to exist on Earth without much difficulty (often lacking "]s", despite the fact that extra-solar planets would likely have different ]s, ]s, ] and other factors, and extraterrestrial life would likely be very different from Earthly life.) # Space aliens are alleged to be overwhelmingly ], and are allegedly able to exist on Earth without much difficulty often lacking "]s", even though ] would likely have different ]s, ]s, ] and other factors, and extraterrestrial life would likely be very different from Earthly life.
#The number of reported UFOs and of purported encounters with UFO-inhabitants outstrips the number of expeditions that an alien civilization (or civilizations) could statistically be expected to mount. # The number of reported UFOs and of purported encounters with UFO-inhabitants outstrips the number of expeditions that an alien civilization (or civilizations) could statistically be expected to mount.
#The behavior of extraterrestrials reported during alleged abductions is often inconsistent and irrational. # The behavior of extraterrestrials reported during alleged abductions is often inconsistent and irrational.
#UFOs are isolated in time and space: like the ], they seem to appear and disappear at will, leaving only vague, ambiguous and mocking evidence of their presence # UFOs are isolated in time and space: like the ], they seem to appear and disappear at will, leaving only vague, ambiguous and mocking evidence of their presence
#Reported UFOs are often far too small to support a crew traveling through space, and their reported flight behavior is often not representative of a craft under intelligent control (erratic flight patterns, sudden course changes). # Reported UFOs are often far too small to support a crew traveling through space, and their reported flight behavior is often not representative of a craft under intelligent control (erratic flight patterns, sudden course changes).
#The distance between planets makes interstellar travel impractical, particularly because of the amount of energy that would be required for ] using conventional means, (According to a NASA estimate, it would take 7{{sn|19}} ]s of energy to send the current space shuttle on a one-way, 50 year, journey to the nearest star, an enormous amount of energy<ref name=Nasa2>Warp Drive, When?: , (October 2006)</ref>) and because of the level of technology that would be required to ''circumvent'' conventional energy/fuel/speed limitations using exotic means suchs as Einstein Rosen Bridges as ways to shortened distances from point A to point B.(see ] travel).<ref name=clark98>Clark Jerome (1998), “The UFO Book: Encyclopedia of the Extraterrestrial”, Visible Ink, ISBN 1-57859-029-9</ref> # The distance between planets makes interstellar travel impractical, particularly because of the amount of energy that would be required for ] using conventional means, (According to a NASA estimate, it would take 7{{e|19}} ]s of energy to send the then-current ] on a one-way 50-year journey to the nearest star, an enormous amount of energy<ref name="Nasa2">Warp Drive, When?: {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130708041902/http://www.nasa.gov/centers/glenn/technology/warp/scales.html |date=2013-07-08 }}, (October 2006)</ref>) and because of the level of technology that would be required to ''circumvent'' conventional energy/fuel/speed limitations using exotic means, such as ] as ways to shorten distances from point A to point B. (''see ] travel'').<ref name="clark98">Clark Jerome (1998), "The UFO Book: Encyclopedia of the Extraterrestrial", Visible Ink, {{ISBN|1-57859-029-9}}</ref>


According to Hynek, points 1 through 6 could be argued, but point 7 represented an insurmountable barrier to the validity of the ETH.<ref name=clark98/> According to the personal assessment of Hynek at the time, points 1 through 6 could be argued, but point 7 represented an "insurmountable" barrier to the validity of the ETH.<ref name="clark98"/>

More recently, Professor ] argued that because most UFOs turn out to have prosaic explanations, it was reasonable to presume that the "unidentified" UFOs also had prosaic origins.<ref name=hawking1>Hawking Stephen, </ref>


==NASA== ==NASA==
] frequently fields questions in regard to the ETH and UFOs. As of 2006, its official standpoint was that ETH has a lack of empirical evidence. ] frequently fields questions in regard to the ETH and UFOs. As of 2006, its official standpoint was that ETH has a lack of empirical evidence.


:"no one has ever found a single artifact, or any other convincing evidence for such alien visits". David Morrison.<ref name=david2>Morrison David, Senior Scientist at the NASA Astrobiology Institute (June 2006), , (October 2006)</ref> :"no one has ever found a single artifact, or any other convincing evidence for such alien visits". David Morrison.<ref name=david2>Morrison David, Senior Scientist at the NASA Astrobiology Institute (June 2006), {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060928234930/http://nai.arc.nasa.gov/astrobio/astrobio_detail.cfm?ID=1538 |date=2006-09-28 }}, (October 2006)</ref>
:"As far as I know, no claims of UFOs as being alien craft have any validity -- the claims are without substance, and certainly not proved". David Morrison<ref name="david1">Morrison David, Senior Scientist at the NASA Astrobiology Institute (July 2006), {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060928234811/http://nai.arc.nasa.gov/astrobio/astrobio_detail.cfm?ID=1551 |date=2006-09-28 }}, (October 2006)</ref>

Despite public interest, up until 2021, NASA had considered the study of ETH to be irrelevant to its work because of the number of false leads that a study would provide, and the limited amount of usable scientific data that it would yield. {{Citation needed|date=October 2021|reason=This claim needs a citation.}} On the History Channel ] episode "The NASA Files" (2008), Former NASA astronauts have commented; ] wrote that NASA and the government "swept these and other sightings under the rug". ] stated "some of my fellow astronauts and scientists astronauts that did go up and who have observed things, very clearly, they were told - not to report it".


In June 2021, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson announced that he had directed NASA scientists to investigate Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon.<ref name="nelson1"> {{Cite web |date=2021-06-08 |title=EarthSky {{!}} NASA and UFOs: Space agency to take closer look |url=https://earthsky.org/human-world/nasa-and-ufos-bill-nelson/ |access-date=2023-05-04 |website=earthsky.org |language=en-US}} </ref> During an interview at the University of Virginia, Bill Nelson explored the possibility that UAP could represent extraterrestrial technology.<ref name="nelson2"> {{Cite web |date=2021-10-20 |title=Space Jam: Former Senator Talks Aliens, Asteroids and 'Star Trek' With Larry Sabato |url=https://news.virginia.edu/content/space-jam-former-senator-talks-aliens-asteroids-and-star-trek-larry-sabato |access-date=2023-05-04 |website=UVA Today |language=en}} </ref>
:"As far as I know, no claims of UFOs as being alien craft have any validity -- the claims are without substance, and certainly not proved". David Morrison<ref name=david1>Morrison David, Senior Scientist at the NASA Astrobiology Institute (July 2006), , (October 2006)</ref>


NASA scientist Ravi Kopparapu advocates studying UAP.<ref name="Ravi1"> {{Cite news |title=Opinion {{!}} We're asking the wrong questions about UFOs |language=en-US |newspaper=Washington Post |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/26/we-need-put-science-center-ufo-question/ |access-date=2023-05-04 |issn=0190-8286}} </ref> {{blockquote|text=We need to frame the current UAP/UFO question with the same level of active inquiry, one involving experts from academia in disciplines including astronomy, meteorology and physics, as well as industry and government professionals with knowledge of military aircraft, remote sensing from the ground and satellite observations. Participants would need to be agnostic toward any specific explanations with a primary goal of collecting enough data — including visual, infrared, radar and other possible observations — to eventually allow us to deduce the identity of such UAP. Following this agnostic approach, and relying upon sound scientific and peer-reviewed methods, would go a long way toward lifting the taboo in mainstream science. }}
Despite public interest, NASA considers the study of ETH to be irrelevant to its work because of the number of false leads that a study would provide, and the limited amount of usable scientific data that it would yield.


In August 2021, at the American Institute of Aeronautics and Aviation, Kopparapu presented a paper<ref name= "Mcdonald1">James E. McDonald, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences University of Arizona
:"That whole subject is really irrelevant to our own human quest to travel to space ... if someone in the previous century saw a film of a 747 flying past, it would not tell them how to build a jet engine, what fuel to use, or what materials to make it out of. Yes, the wings are a clue, but just that, a clue." NASA.<ref>Warp Drive, When?: , NASA, (October 2006)</ref>
Tucson, Arizona, (December, 1969) http://noufors.com/Documents/scienceindefault.pdfstating{{Dead link|date=March 2024 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}</ref> from the American Association for the Advancement of Science, 134th Meeting General Symposium that supported ETH. Kopparapu stated he and his colleagues found the paper "perfectly credible".<ref name="Ravi2"> {{Citation |title=Science of UAP: Past and Present ~ Ravi Kopperapu, Ph.D. AIAA AV21 UAP session | date=18 August 2021 |url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJiFhazryiA |access-date=2023-05-04 |language=en}} </ref>


==Conspiracy== ==Conspiracy theories==
{{Main|UFO conspiracy theory}} {{Main|UFO conspiracy theory}}


A frequent concept in ufology and popular culture is that the true extent of information about UFOs is being suppressed by some form of conspiracy of silence, or by an official cover up that is acting to conceal information. A frequent concept in ufology and popular culture is that the true extent of information about UFOs is being suppressed by some form of conspiracy of silence, or by an official ] that is acting to conceal information.


In 1968, American engineer ] argued that significant evidence existed to prove UFOs "beyond reasonable doubt," but that the evidence had been suppressed and largely neglected by scientists and the general public, thus preventing sound conclusions from being reached on the ETH. In 1968, American engineer ] argued that significant evidence existed to prove UFOs "beyond reasonable doubt," but that the evidence had been suppressed and largely neglected by scientists and the general public, thus preventing sound conclusions from being reached on the ETH.


:"Over the past 20 years a vast amount of evidence has been accumulating that bears on the existence of UFO's. Most of this is little known to the general public or to most scientists. But on the basis of the data and ordinary rules of evidence, as would be applied in civil or criminal courts, the physical reality of UFO's has been proved beyond a reasonable doubt<ref name=harder1/>" J A Harder :"Over the past 20 years a vast amount of evidence has been accumulating that bears on the existence of UFOs. Most of this is little known to the general public or to most scientists. But on the basis of the data and ordinary rules of evidence, as would be applied in civil or criminal courts, the physical reality of UFOs has been proved beyond a reasonable doubt."<ref name=harder1/> J A Harder


A survey carried out by Industrial Research magazine in 1971 showed that more Americans believed the government was concealing information about UFOs (76 percent) than believed in the existence of UFOs (54 percent), or in ETH itself (32 percent).<ref name=50plus/> A survey carried out by Industrial Research magazine in 1971 showed that more Americans believed the government was concealing information about UFOs (76%) than believed in the existence of UFOs (54%), or in ETH itself (32%).<ref name=50plus/>{{Failed verification|date=February 2009}}

People have had a long-standing curiosity about extraterrestrial life. Aliens are the subject of numerous urban legends, including claims that they have long been present on earth or that they may be able to assist humans in resolving certain issues. Despite these myths, the truth is that there is no scientific proof to back up these assertions, hence we cannot declare with certainty whether or not aliens exist.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Extraterrestrial Intelligence In the Solar System: Resolving the Fermi Paradox |url=http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ResolvingFermi1983.htm |access-date=2022-11-05 |website=www.rfreitas.com}}</ref>


===Documents and investigations regarding ETH=== ===Documents and investigations regarding ETH===
Other private or government studies, some secret, have concluded in favor of the ET hypothesis, or have had members who disagreed in contravention with official conclusions reached by the committees and agencies to which they belonged. The following are examples of sources that have focused specifically on the topic:
]
* In 1967, Greek physicist ], a ] scientist, publicly stated that a 1947 Greek government investigation into the European ] of 1946 under his lead quickly concluded that they were not missiles. Santorini claimed the investigation was then quashed by military officials from the U.S., who knew them to be extraterrestrial, because there was no defense against the advanced technology and they feared widespread panic should the results become public.<ref>Good (1988), 23</ref>


{{anchor|Photo}}]
Other private or governmental studies, some secret, have concluded in favor of the ETH, or have had members who disagreed with official conclusions against the conclusion by committees and agencies to which they belonged. The following are examples of sources that have focused specifically on the topic:
* A 1948 Top Secret USAF Europe document (]) states that Swedish air intelligence informed them that at least some of their investigators into the ghost rockets and flying saucers concluded they had extraterrestrial origins: "...] have been reported by so many sources and from such a variety of places that we are convinced that they cannot be disregarded and must be explained on some basis which is perhaps slightly beyond the scope of our present intelligence thinking. When officers of this Directorate recently visited the Swedish Air Intelligence Service... their answer was that some reliable and fully technically qualified people have reached the conclusion that 'these phenomena are obviously the result of a high technical skill which cannot be credited to any presently known culture on earth.' They are therefore assuming that these objects originate from some previously unknown or unidentified technology, possibly outside the earth."<ref>Document quoted and published in Timothy Good (2007), 106–107, 115; USAFE Item 14, TT 1524, (Top Secret), 4 November 1948, declassified in 1997, National Archives, Washington D.C.</ref>
*In 1967, Greek physicist Paul Santorini, a ] scientist, publicly stated that a 1947 Greek government investigation that he headed into the European ] of 1946 quickly concluded that they were not missiles. Santorini claimed the investigation was then quashed by military officials from the U.S., who knew them to be extraterrestrial, because there was no defense against the advanced technology and they feared widespread panic should the results become public.<ref>Good (1988), 23</ref>
* In 1948, the USAF ] produced a Top Secret Estimate of the Situation, concluding that the ETH was the most likely explanation for the most perplexing unexplained cases. The study was ordered destroyed by USAF Chief of Staff General ], citing lack of proof. Knowledge of the existence of the Estimate has come from insiders who said they read a surviving copy, including the later USAF Project Blue Book head ], and astronomer and USAF consultant ].
*A 1948 Top Secret USAF Europe document (at right) states that Swedish air intelligence informed them that at least some of their investigators into the ghost rockets and flying saucers concluded they had extraterrestrial origins: "...] have been reported by so many sources and from such a variety of places that we are convinced that they cannot be disregarded and must be explained on some basis which is perhaps slightly beyond the scope of our present intelligence thinking. When officers of this Directorate recently visited the Swedish Air Intelligence Service... their answer was that some reliable and fully technically qualified people have reached the conclusion that 'these phenomena are obviously the result of a high technical skill which cannot be credited to any presently known culture on earth.' They are therefore assuming that these objects originate from some previously unknown or unidentified technology, possibly outside the earth."<ref>Document quoted and published in Timothy Good (2007), 106–107, 115; USAFE Item 14, TT 1524, (Top Secret), 4 November 1948, declassified in 1997, National Archives, Washington D.C.</ref>
* West Germany, in conjunction with other European countries, conducted a secret study from 1951 to 1954, also concluding that UFOs were extraterrestrial. This study was revealed by German rocketry pioneer ], who headed the study and who also made many public statements supporting the ETH in succeeding years. At the study's conclusion in 1954, Oberth declared: "These objects (UFOs) are conceived and directed by intelligent beings of a very high order. They do not originate in our solar system, perhaps not in our galaxy." Soon afterwards, in an October 24, 1954, article in ''The American Weekly'', Oberth wrote: "It is my thesis that flying saucers are real and that they are space ships from another solar system. I think that they possibly are manned by intelligent observers who are members of a race that may have been investigating our earth for centuries..."<ref> {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101125162907/http://mufon.com/MUFONNews/znews_oberth.html |date=2010-11-25 }}; Oberth's ''American Weekly'' article appeared in a number of newspaper Sunday supplements, e.g., '']'', pg. AW4, and {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160403125526/https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=Pm8xAAAAIBAJ&sjid=MRAEAAAAIBAJ&pg=5451,3094226&dq=herman+oberth&hl=en |date=2016-04-03 }}</ref>
*In 1948, the USAF's ] wrote a Top Secret ], concluding that the ETH was the most likely explanation for the most perplexing unexplained cases. The study was ordered destroyed by USAF chief of staff General ], citing lack of proof. Knowledge of the existence of the Estimate has come from insiders who said they read a surviving copy, including later USAF ] head ] and astronomer and USAF consultant Dr. ].
* The ] started their own internal scientific review the following day.{{when|date=July 2020}}<!--Does 'the following day' follow the day the above article was published by Oberth?--> Some CIA scientists were also seriously considering the ETH. An early memo from August was very skeptical, but also added: "...as long as a series of reports remains 'unexplainable' (interplanetary aspects and alien origin not being thoroughly excluded from consideration) caution requires that intelligence continue coverage of the subject." A report from later that month{{when|date=July 2020}} was similarly skeptical, but nevertheless concluded: "...sightings of UFOs reported at ] and ], at a time when the background ] count had risen inexplicably. Here we run out of even 'blue yonder' explanations that might be tenable, and we still are left with numbers of incredible reports from credible observers." A December 1952 memo from the Assistant CIA Director of Scientific Intelligence (O/SI) was much more urgent: "...the reports of incidents convince us that there is something going on that must have immediate attention. Sightings of unexplained objects at great altitudes and traveling at high speeds in the vicinity of U.S. defense installation &#91;'']''&#93; are of such nature that they are not attributable to natural phenomena or known types of aerial vehicles." Some of the memos also made it clear, that CIA interest in the subject was not to be made public, partly in fear of possible public panic. (Good, 331–335)
*West Germany, in conjunction with other European countries, conducted a secret study from 1951 to 1954, also concluding that UFOs were extraterrestrial. This study was revealed by German rocketry pioneer ], who headed the study and who also made many public statements supporting the ETH in succeeding years. At the study's conclusion in 1954, Oberth declared, "These objects (UFOs) are conceived and directed by intelligent beings of a very high order. They do not originate in our solar system, perhaps not in our galaxy." Soon afterwards, in an article in ''The American Weekly'', October 24, 1954, Oberth wrote "It is my thesis that flying saucers are real and that they are space ships from another solar system. I think that they possibly are manned by intelligent observers who are members of a race that may have been investigating our earth for centuries..." <ref>; Oberth's American Weekly article appeared in a number of newspaper Sunday supplements, e.g., ''] and Times Herald'', pg. AW4</ref>
* The CIA organized the January 1953 ] of scientists to debunk the data collected by the Air Force's Project Blue Book. This included an engineering analysis of UFO maneuvers by Blue Book (including a motion picture film analysis by Naval scientists) that had concluded UFOs were under intelligent control and likely extraterrestrial.<ref>Dolan, 189; Good, 287, 337; Ruppelt, Chapt. 16</ref>
*During the height of the flying saucer "flap" of July 1952, including highly publicized radar/visual and jet intercepts over ], the ] was informed by the Air Force Directorate of Intelligence that they thought the "flying saucers" were either "optical illusions or atmospheric phenomena" but then added that, "some Military officials are seriously considering the possibility of interplanetary ships." <ref>; </ref>
* Extraterrestrial "believers" within Project Blue Book included Major Dewey Fournet, in charge of the engineering analysis of UFO motion, who later became a board member on the civilian UFO organization ]. Blue Book director ] privately commented on other firm "pro-UFO" members in the USAF investigations, including some Pentagon generals, such as ], USAF Chief of Air Intelligence, who, angry at the inaction and debunkery of ], dissolved it in 1951, established Project Blue Book in its place, and made Ruppelt director.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Ruppelt's private notes |url=http://www.ufologie.net/htm/ruppeltwhoiswho.htm |access-date=2009-03-20 |url-status=dead |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20100124112743/http://www.ufologie.net/htm/ruppeltwhoiswho.htm |archive-date=2010-01-24}}</ref> In 1953, Cabell became deputy director of the CIA. Another defector from the official Air Force party line was consultant ], who started out as a staunch skeptic. After 20 years of investigation, he changed positions and generally supported the ETH. He became the most publicly known UFO advocate scientist in the 1970s and 1980s.
*The ] started their own internal scientific review the following day. Some CIA scientists were also seriously considering the ETH. An early memo from August was very skeptical, but also added, "...as long as a series of reports remains 'unexplainable' (interplanetary aspects and alien origin not being thoroughly excluded from consideration) caution requires that intelligence continue coverage of the subject." A report from later that month was similarly skeptical but nevertheless concluded "...sightings of UFOs reported at ] and ], at a time when the background ] count had risen inexplicably. Here we run out of even 'blue yonder' explanations that might be tenable, and we still are left with numbers of incredible reports from credible observers." A December 1952 memo from the Assistant CIA Director of Scientific Intelligence (O/SI) was much more urgent: "...the reports of incidents convince us that there is something going on that must have immediate attention. Sightings of unexplained objects at great altitudes and traveling at highs speeds in the vicinity of U.S. defense installation are of such nature that they are not attributable to natural phenomena or known types of aerial vehicles." Some of the memos also made it clear that CIA interest in the subject was not to be made public, partly in fear of possible public panic. (Good, 331–335)
* The first CIA Director, Vice Admiral ], stated in a signed statement to Congress, also reported in '']'' (February 28, 1960): "It is time for the truth to be brought out... Behind the scenes high-ranking Air Force officers are soberly concerned about the UFOs. However, through official secrecy and ridicule, many citizens are led to believe the unknown flying objects are nonsense... I urge immediate Congressional action to reduce the dangers from secrecy about unidentified flying objects." In 1962, in his letter of resignation from ], he told director ], "I know the UFOs are not U.S. or Soviet devices. All we can do now is wait for some actions by the UFOs."<ref>Good, 347</ref>
*The CIA organized the January 1953 ] of scientists to debunk the data collected by the Air Force's ]. This included an engineering analysis of UFO maneuvers by Blue Book (including a motion picture film analysis by Naval scientists) that had concluded UFOs were under intelligent control and likely extraterrestrial.<ref>Dolan, 189; Good, 287, 337; Ruppelt, Chapt. 16</ref>
* Although the 1968 ] came to a negative conclusion (written by ]), it is known that many members of the study strongly disagreed with Condon's methods and biases. Most quit the project in disgust, or were fired for insubordination. A few became ETH supporters. Perhaps the best known example is David Saunders, who in his 1968 book ''UFOs? Yes'' lambasted Condon for extreme bias, and for ignoring or misrepresenting critical evidence. Saunders wrote: "It is clear... that the sightings have been going on for too long to explain in terms of straightforward terrestrial intelligence. It's in this sense that ETI (Extra Terrestrial Intelligence) stands as the 'least implausible' explanation of 'real UFOs'."<ref>David Saunders, ''UFOs? Yes''</ref>
*Extraterrestrial "believers" within ] included Major Dewey Fournet, in charge of the engineering analysis of UFO motion, who later became a board member on the civilian UFO organization ]. Blue Book director ] privately commented on other firm "pro-UFO" members in the USAF investigations, including some Pentagon generals, such as ], USAF Chief of Air Intelligence, who angry at the inaction and debunkery of ], dissolved it in 1951, established Project Blue Book in its place, and made Ruppelt director.<ref></ref> In 1953, Cabell became deputy director of the CIA. Another defector from the official Air Force party line was consultant Dr. ], who started out as a staunch skeptic. After 20 years of investigation, he changed positions and generally supported the ETH. He became the most publicly known UFO advocate scientist in the 1970s and 1980s.
* In 1999, the private French ] (written primarily by military defense analysts) stated the conclusion regarding UFO phenomena, that a "single hypothesis sufficiently takes into account the facts and, for the most part, only calls for present-day science. It is the hypothesis of extraterrestrial visitors."<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.ufoevidence.org/newsite/files/COMETA_part2.pdf |title=Archived copy |access-date=2010-05-05 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090716113351/http://www.ufoevidence.org/newsite/files/COMETA_part2.pdf |archive-date=2009-07-16 }}</ref> The report noted issues with formulating the extraterrestrial hypothesis, likening its study to the study of meteorites, but concluded, that although it was far from the best scientific hypothesis, "strong presumptions exist in its favour". The report also concludes, that the studies it presents, "demonstrate the almost certain physical reality of completely unknown flying objects with remarkable flight performances and noiselessness, apparently operated by intelligent ... Secret craft definitely of earthly origins (drones, stealth aircraft, etc.) can only explain a minority of cases. If we go back far enough in time, we clearly perceive the limits of this explanation."
*The first CIA Director, Vice Admiral ], stated in a signed statement to Congress, also reported in the ], February 28, 1960, "It is time for the truth to be brought out... Behind the scenes high-ranking Air Force officers are soberly concerned about the UFOs. However, through official secrecy and ridicule, many citizens are led to believe the unknown flying objects are nonsense... I urge immediate Congressional action to reduce the dangers from secrecy about unidentified flying objects." In 1962, in his letter of resignation from ], he told director ], "I know the UFOs are not U.S. or Soviet devices. All we can do now is wait for some actions by the UFOs."<ref>Good, 347</ref>
* ], the head of the official French UFO investigation ], wrote a book in 2005, saying, that 14% of the 5800 cases studied by SEPRA were 'utterly inexplicable and extraterrestrial' in origin.<ref></ref> However, the CNES own report says 28% of sightings remain unidentified.<ref></ref> ], the head of the new official French UFO investigation ] and former head of French space agency ], echoes Velasco's comments and adds, that the United States 'is guilty of covering up this information.'<ref>{{cite web |url= http://www.ufoevidence.org/documents/doc2008.htm |title=Official French Gov't UFO study project to resume with new director |publisher=UFO Evidence |website=www.ufoevidence.org}}</ref> However, this is not the official public posture of SEPRA, CNES, or the French government. (The CNES placed their 5,800 case files on the Internet starting March 2007.)
*Although the 1968 ] came to a negative conclusion (written by ]), it is known that many members of the study strongly disagreed with Condon's methods and biases. Most quit the project in disgust or were fired for insubordination. A few became ETH supporters. Perhaps the best known example is Dr. David Saunders, who in his 1968 book ''UFOs? Yes'' lambasted Condon for extreme bias and ignoring or misrepresenting critical evidence. Saunders wrote, "It is clear... that the sightings have been going on for too long to explain in terms of straightforward terrestrial intelligence. It's in this sense that ETI (Extra Terrestrial Intelligence) stands as the 'least implausible' explanation of 'real UFOs'." <ref>David Saunders, ''UFOs? Yes''</ref>

*In 1999, the private French ] report (written primarily by military defense analysts) stated the conclusion regarding UFO phenomena, that a "single hypothesis sufficiently takes into account the facts and, for the most part, only calls for present-day science. It is the hypothesis of extraterrestrial visitors." The report noted issues with formulating the extraterrestrial hypothesis, likening its study to the study of meteorites, but concluded that although it was far from the best scientific hypothesis, "strong presumptions exist in its favour". The report also concludes that the studies it presents "demonstrate the almost certain physical reality of completely unknown flying objects with remarkable flight performances and noiselessness, apparently operated by intelligent … Secret craft definitely of early origins (drones, stealth aircraft, etc.) can only explain a minority of cases. If we go back far enough in time, we clearly perceive the limits of this explanation."
==Official White House position==
*], the head of the official French UFO investigation ], wrote a book in 2005 saying that 14% of the 5800 cases studied by SEPRA were utterly inexplicable and extraterrestrial in origin.<ref></ref> ], the head of the new official French UFO investigation ] and former head of the French space agency ], echoes Velasco's comments and adds the U.S. is guilty of covering up this information.<ref></ref> Again, this isn't the official public posture of SEPRA, CNES, or the French government. (CNES recently placed their 5800 case files on the Internet starting March 2007.)
In November 2011, the ] released an official response to two petitions asking the ] to acknowledge formally that aliens have visited Earth and to disclose any intentional withholding of government interactions with extraterrestrial beings. According to the response, "The U.S. government has no evidence that any life exists outside our planet, or that an extraterrestrial presence has contacted or engaged any member of the human race."<ref name="WhiteHouse">{{cite web|last=Larson|first=Phil|title=Searching for ET, But No Evidence Yet|url=https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petitions#!/response/searching-et-no-evidence-yet|date=5 November 2011|publisher=White House|access-date=2011-11-06|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111124052154/https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/Petitions#!/response/searching-et-no-evidence-yet|archive-date=24 November 2011}}</ref><ref name="Atkinson">{{cite web |last=Atkinson |first=Nancy |title=No Alien Visits or UFO Coverups, White House Says|url=http://www.universetoday.com/90717/no-alien-visits-or-ufo-coverups-white-house-says/|date=5 November 2011 |publisher=] |access-date=2011-11-06 }}</ref> Also, according to the response, there is "no credible information to suggest that any evidence is being hidden from the public's eye."<ref name="WhiteHouse"/><ref name="Atkinson"/> The response further noted that efforts, like ], the ] and the ], continue looking for ]. The response noted "the odds are pretty high" that there may be life on other planets but "the odds of us making contact with any of them—especially any ]—are extremely small, given the distances involved."<ref name="WhiteHouse"/><ref name="Atkinson"/>


==See also== ==See also==
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==References== ==References==
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Latest revision as of 19:33, 7 January 2025

Hypothesis that some unidentified flying objects are created by extraterrestrial life
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The extraterrestrial hypothesis (ETH) proposes that some unidentified flying objects (UFOs) are best explained as being physical spacecraft occupied by extraterrestrial intelligence or non-human aliens, or non-occupied alien probes from other planets visiting Earth. In spite of ardent believers that various UFO sightings are verifiable evidence for the hypothesis, no rigorous analysis has ever concluded as much.

Origins of the term

Use of the term extraterrestrial hypothesis in printed material on UFOs seems to date to at least the latter half of the 1960s. French ufologist Jacques Vallée used it in his 1966 book Challenge to science: the UFO enigma. It was used in a publication by French engineer Aimé Michel in 1967, by James E. McDonald in a symposium in March 1968 and again by McDonald and James Harder while testifying before the Congressional Committee on Science and Astronautics, in July 1968. Skeptic Philip J. Klass used it in his 1968 book UFOs--Identified. In 1969 physicist Edward Condon defined the "extraterrestrial hypothesis" or "ETH" as the "idea that some UFOs may be spacecraft sent to Earth from another civilization or space other than Earth, or on a planet associated with a more distant star," while presenting the findings of the much debated Condon Report. Some UFO historians credit Condon with popularizing the term and its abbreviation "ETH."

Chronology

Although the extraterrestrial hypothesis (ETH) as a phrase is a comparatively new concept, one which owes much to the flying saucer sightings of the 1940s–1960s, its origins can be traced back to a number of earlier events, such as the now-discredited Martian canals and ancient Martian civilization promoted by astronomer Percival Lowell, popular culture including the writings of H. G. Wells and fellow science fiction pioneers such as Edgar Rice Burroughs, who likewise wrote of Martian civilizations, and even to the works of figures such as the Swedish philosopher, mystic and scientist Emanuel Swedenborg, who promoted a variety of unconventional views that linked other worlds to the afterlife.

In the early part of the twentieth century, Charles Fort collected accounts of anomalous physical phenomena from newspapers and scientific journals, including many reports of extraordinary aerial objects. These were published in 1919 in The Book of the Damned. In this and two subsequent books, New Lands (1923) and Lo! (1931), Fort theorized that visitors from other worlds were observing Earth. Fort's reports of aerial phenomena were frequently cited in American newspapers when the UFO phenomenon first attracted widespread media attention in June and July 1947.

The modern ETH—specifically, the implicit linking of unidentified aircraft and lights in the sky to alien life—took root during the late 1940s and took its current form during the 1950s. It drew on pseudoscience, as well as popular culture. Unlike earlier speculation of extraterrestrial life, interest in the ETH was also bolstered by many unexplained sightings investigated by the U.S. government and governments of other countries, as well as private civilian groups, such as NICAP and APRO.

Historical reports of extraterrestrial visits

An early example of speculation over extraterrestrial visitors can be found in the French newspaper Le Pays, which on June 17, 1864, published a story about two American geologists who had allegedly discovered an alien-like creature, a mummified three-foot-tall hairless humanoid with a trunk-like appendage on its forehead, inside a hollow egg-shaped structure.

H. G. Wells, in his 1898 science fiction classic The War of the Worlds, popularized the idea of Martian visitation and invasion. Even before Wells, there was a sudden upsurge in reports in "Mystery airships" in the United States. For example, The Washington Times in 1897 speculated that the airships were "a reconnoitering party from Mars", and the Saint Louis Post-Dispatch wrote: "these may be visitors from Mars, fearful, at the last, of invading the planet they have been seeking." Later, there was a more international airship wave from 1909-1912. An example of an extraterrestrial explanation at the time was a 1909 letter to a New Zealand newspaper suggesting "atomic powered spaceships from Mars."

From the 1920s, the idea of alien visitation in space ships was commonplace in popular comic strips and radio and movie serials, such as Buck Rogers and Flash Gordon. In particular, the Flash Gordon serials have the Earth being attacked from space by alien meteors, ray beams, and biological weapons. In 1938, a radio broadcast version of The War of the Worlds by Orson Welles, using a contemporary setting for H. G. Wells' Martian invasion, created some public panic in the United States.

The 1947 flying saucer wave in America

On June 24, 1947, at about 3:00 p.m. local time, pilot Kenneth Arnold reported seeing nine unidentified disk-shaped aircraft flying near Mount Rainier. When no aircraft emerged that seemed to account for what he had seen, Arnold quickly considered the possibility of the objects being extraterrestrial. On July 7, 1947, two stories came out where Arnold was raising the topic of possible extraterrestrial origins, both as his opinion and those who had written to him. In an Associated Press story, Arnold said he had received quantities of fan mail eager to help solve the mystery. Some of them "suggested the discs were visitations from another planet."

When the 1947 flying saucer wave hit the United States, there was much speculation in the newspapers about what they might be in news stories, columns, editorials, and letters to the editor. For example, on July 10, U.S. Senator Glen Taylor of Idaho commented, "I almost wish the flying saucers would turn out to be space ships from another planet," because the possibility of hostility "would unify the people of the earth as nothing else could." On July 8, R. DeWitt Miller was quoted by UP saying that the saucers had been seen since the early nineteenth century. If the present discs weren't secret Army weapons, he suggested they could be vehicles from Mars, or other planets, or maybe even "things out of other dimensions of time and space." Other articles brought up the work of Charles Fort, who earlier in the twentieth century had documented numerous reports of unidentified flying objects that had been written up in newspapers and scientific journals.

Even if people thought the saucers were real, most were generally unwilling to leap to the conclusion that they were extraterrestrial in origin. Various popular theories began to quickly proliferate in press articles, such as secret military projects, Russian spy devices, hoaxes, optical illusions, and mass hysteria. According to journalist Edward R. Murrow, the ETH as a serious explanation for "flying saucers" did not earn widespread attention until about 18 months after Arnold's sighting.

These attitudes seem to be reflected in the results of the first U.S. poll of public UFO perceptions released by Gallup on August 14, 1947. The term "flying saucer" was familiar to 90% of the respondents. As to what people thought explained them, the poll further showed, that most people either held no opinion or refused to answer the question (33%), or generally believed that there was a mundane explanation. 29% thought they were optical illusions, mirages, or imagination; 15% a U.S. secret weapon; 10% a hoax; 3% a "weather forecasting device"; 1% of Soviet origin, and 9% had "other explanations," including fulfillment of Biblical prophecy, secret commercial aircraft, or phenomena related to atomic testing.

U.S. military investigation and debunkery

On July 9, Army Air Forces Intelligence began a secret study of the best saucer reports, including that of Arnold's. A follow-up study by the Air Materiel Command intelligence and engineering departments at Wright Field, Ohio led to the formation of the U.S. Air Force's Project Sign at the end of 1947, the first official U.S. military UFO study.

In 1948, Project Sign concluded without endorsing any unified explanation for all UFO reports, and the ETH was rejected by USAF Chief of Staff General Hoyt Vandenberg, citing a lack of physical evidence. Vandenberg dismantled Project Sign, and with this official policy in place, subsequent public Air Force reports concluded, that there was insufficient evidence to warrant further investigation of UFOs.

In 1952, Life Magazine published "Have We Visitors From Space?" which popularized the Extraterrestrial Hypothesis and is thought to have triggered the 1952 UFO flap. Immediately following the great UFO wave of 1952 and the military debunking of radar and visual sightings, plus jet interceptions over Washington, D.C. in August, the CIA's Office of Scientific Investigation took particular interest in UFOs. Though the ETH was mentioned, it was generally given little credence. However, others within the CIA, such as the Psychological Strategy Board, were more concerned about how an unfriendly power such as the Soviet Union might use UFOs for psychological warfare purposes, exploit the gullibility of the public for the sensational, and clog intelligence channels. Under a directive from the National Security Council to review the problem, in January 1953, the CIA organized the Robertson Panel, a group of scientists who quickly reviewed the Blue Book's best evidence, including motion pictures and an engineering report that concluded that the performance characteristics were beyond that of earthly craft. After two days' review, all cases were claimed to have conventional explanations. An official policy of public debunkery was recommended using the mass media and authority figures in order to influence public opinion and reduce the number of UFO reports.

Evolution of public opinion

The early 1950s also saw a number of movies depicting flying saucers and aliens, including The Day the Earth Stood Still (1951), The War of the Worlds (1953), Earth vs. the Flying Saucers (1956), and Forbidden Planet (1956). A poll published in Popular Science magazine in August 1951 reported that of the respondents who self-reported as UFO witnesses, 52% believed that they had seen a man-made aircraft, while only 4% believed that they had seen an alien craft; an additional 28% were uncertain, with more than half of these stating they believed they were either man-made aircraft, or "visitors from afar." By 1957, 25% of Americans responded that they either believed, or were willing to believe in the ETH, while 53% responded that they were not. 22% reported that they were uncertain.

A Roper poll in 2002 reported that 56% of respondents thought UFOs were real, with 48% believing that UFOs had visited Earth.

Religion

Further information: UFO religion

Fewer sightings despite camera phone technology

As the proliferation of smartphone camera technology across the population has not led to a significant increase in recorded UFO sightings, the claimed phenomenology of UFOs has been called into question. This goes counter to the predictions of supporters of the extraterrestrial hypothesis, even causing a crisis of confidence among some within the informal UFO research community.

Involvement of scientists

The scientific community has shown very little support for the ETH, and has largely accepted the explanation that reports of UFOs are the result of people misinterpreting common objects or phenomena, or are the work of hoaxers. Professor Stephen Hawking has expressed skepticism about the ETH. In a 1969 lecture, U.S. astrophysicist Carl Sagan said:

"The idea of benign or hostile space aliens from other planets visiting the Earth an emotional idea. There are two sorts of self-deception here: either accepting the idea of extraterrestrial visitation by space aliens in the face of very meager evidence because we want it to be true; or rejecting such an idea out of hand, in the absence of sufficient evidence, because we don't want it to be true. Each of these extremes is a serious impediment to the study of UFOs."

Similarly, British astrophysicist Peter A. Sturrock wrote

"for many years, discussions of the UFO issue have remained narrowly polarized between advocates and adversaries of a single theory, namely the extraterrestrial hypothesis ... this fixation on the ETH has narrowed and impoverished the debate, precluding an examination of other possible theories for the phenomenon."

An informal poll done by Sturrock in 1973 of American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics members found that about 10% of them believed that UFOs were vehicles from outer space. In another poll conducted in 1977, Sturrock asked members of the American Astronomical Society to assign probabilities to eight possible explanations for UFOs. The results were:

23% An unfamiliar natural phenomenon
22% A familiar phenomenon or device
21% An unfamiliar terrestrial device
12% Hoax
9% An unknown natural phenomenon
7% Some specifiable other cause
3% An alien device
3% Some unspecified other cause

The primary scientific arguments against ETH were summarized by astronomer and UFO researcher J. Allen Hynek during a presentation at the 1983 MUFON Symposium, where he outlined seven key reasons why he could not accept the ETH.

  1. Failure of sophisticated surveillance systems to detect incoming or outgoing UFOs
  2. Gravitational and atmospheric considerations
  3. Statistical considerations
  4. Elusive, evasive and absurd behavior of UFOs and their occupants
  5. Isolation of the UFO phenomenon in time and space: the Cheshire Cat effect
  6. The space unworthiness of UFOs
  7. The problem of astronomical distances

Hynek argued that:

  1. Despite worldwide radar systems and Earth-orbiting satellites, UFOs are alleged to flit in and out of the atmosphere, leaving little to no evidence.
  2. Space aliens are alleged to be overwhelmingly humanoid, and are allegedly able to exist on Earth without much difficulty often lacking "space suits", even though extra-solar planets would likely have different atmospheres, biospheres, gravity and other factors, and extraterrestrial life would likely be very different from Earthly life.
  3. The number of reported UFOs and of purported encounters with UFO-inhabitants outstrips the number of expeditions that an alien civilization (or civilizations) could statistically be expected to mount.
  4. The behavior of extraterrestrials reported during alleged abductions is often inconsistent and irrational.
  5. UFOs are isolated in time and space: like the Cheshire Cat, they seem to appear and disappear at will, leaving only vague, ambiguous and mocking evidence of their presence
  6. Reported UFOs are often far too small to support a crew traveling through space, and their reported flight behavior is often not representative of a craft under intelligent control (erratic flight patterns, sudden course changes).
  7. The distance between planets makes interstellar travel impractical, particularly because of the amount of energy that would be required for interstellar travel using conventional means, (According to a NASA estimate, it would take 7×10 joules of energy to send the then-current Space Shuttle on a one-way 50-year journey to the nearest star, an enormous amount of energy) and because of the level of technology that would be required to circumvent conventional energy/fuel/speed limitations using exotic means, such as Einstein-Rosen Bridges as ways to shorten distances from point A to point B. (see Faster-than-light travel).

According to the personal assessment of Hynek at the time, points 1 through 6 could be argued, but point 7 represented an "insurmountable" barrier to the validity of the ETH.

NASA

NASA frequently fields questions in regard to the ETH and UFOs. As of 2006, its official standpoint was that ETH has a lack of empirical evidence.

"no one has ever found a single artifact, or any other convincing evidence for such alien visits". David Morrison.
"As far as I know, no claims of UFOs as being alien craft have any validity -- the claims are without substance, and certainly not proved". David Morrison

Despite public interest, up until 2021, NASA had considered the study of ETH to be irrelevant to its work because of the number of false leads that a study would provide, and the limited amount of usable scientific data that it would yield. On the History Channel UFO Hunters episode "The NASA Files" (2008), Former NASA astronauts have commented; Gordon Cooper wrote that NASA and the government "swept these and other sightings under the rug". Brian O'Leary stated "some of my fellow astronauts and scientists astronauts that did go up and who have observed things, very clearly, they were told - not to report it".

In June 2021, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson announced that he had directed NASA scientists to investigate Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon. During an interview at the University of Virginia, Bill Nelson explored the possibility that UAP could represent extraterrestrial technology.

NASA scientist Ravi Kopparapu advocates studying UAP.

We need to frame the current UAP/UFO question with the same level of active inquiry, one involving experts from academia in disciplines including astronomy, meteorology and physics, as well as industry and government professionals with knowledge of military aircraft, remote sensing from the ground and satellite observations. Participants would need to be agnostic toward any specific explanations with a primary goal of collecting enough data — including visual, infrared, radar and other possible observations — to eventually allow us to deduce the identity of such UAP. Following this agnostic approach, and relying upon sound scientific and peer-reviewed methods, would go a long way toward lifting the taboo in mainstream science.

In August 2021, at the American Institute of Aeronautics and Aviation, Kopparapu presented a paper from the American Association for the Advancement of Science, 134th Meeting General Symposium that supported ETH. Kopparapu stated he and his colleagues found the paper "perfectly credible".

Conspiracy theories

Main article: UFO conspiracy theory

A frequent concept in ufology and popular culture is that the true extent of information about UFOs is being suppressed by some form of conspiracy of silence, or by an official cover-up that is acting to conceal information.

In 1968, American engineer James Harder argued that significant evidence existed to prove UFOs "beyond reasonable doubt," but that the evidence had been suppressed and largely neglected by scientists and the general public, thus preventing sound conclusions from being reached on the ETH.

"Over the past 20 years a vast amount of evidence has been accumulating that bears on the existence of UFOs. Most of this is little known to the general public or to most scientists. But on the basis of the data and ordinary rules of evidence, as would be applied in civil or criminal courts, the physical reality of UFOs has been proved beyond a reasonable doubt." J A Harder

A survey carried out by Industrial Research magazine in 1971 showed that more Americans believed the government was concealing information about UFOs (76%) than believed in the existence of UFOs (54%), or in ETH itself (32%).

People have had a long-standing curiosity about extraterrestrial life. Aliens are the subject of numerous urban legends, including claims that they have long been present on earth or that they may be able to assist humans in resolving certain issues. Despite these myths, the truth is that there is no scientific proof to back up these assertions, hence we cannot declare with certainty whether or not aliens exist.

Documents and investigations regarding ETH

Other private or government studies, some secret, have concluded in favor of the ET hypothesis, or have had members who disagreed in contravention with official conclusions reached by the committees and agencies to which they belonged. The following are examples of sources that have focused specifically on the topic:

  • In 1967, Greek physicist Paul Santorini, a Manhattan Project scientist, publicly stated that a 1947 Greek government investigation into the European Ghost rockets of 1946 under his lead quickly concluded that they were not missiles. Santorini claimed the investigation was then quashed by military officials from the U.S., who knew them to be extraterrestrial, because there was no defense against the advanced technology and they feared widespread panic should the results become public.

November 1948 USAF Top Secret document citing extraterrestrial opinion.
  • A 1948 Top Secret USAF Europe document (at right) states that Swedish air intelligence informed them that at least some of their investigators into the ghost rockets and flying saucers concluded they had extraterrestrial origins: "...Flying saucers have been reported by so many sources and from such a variety of places that we are convinced that they cannot be disregarded and must be explained on some basis which is perhaps slightly beyond the scope of our present intelligence thinking. When officers of this Directorate recently visited the Swedish Air Intelligence Service... their answer was that some reliable and fully technically qualified people have reached the conclusion that 'these phenomena are obviously the result of a high technical skill which cannot be credited to any presently known culture on earth.' They are therefore assuming that these objects originate from some previously unknown or unidentified technology, possibly outside the earth."
  • In 1948, the USAF Project Sign produced a Top Secret Estimate of the Situation, concluding that the ETH was the most likely explanation for the most perplexing unexplained cases. The study was ordered destroyed by USAF Chief of Staff General Hoyt Vandenberg, citing lack of proof. Knowledge of the existence of the Estimate has come from insiders who said they read a surviving copy, including the later USAF Project Blue Book head Edward J. Ruppelt, and astronomer and USAF consultant J. Allen Hynek.
  • West Germany, in conjunction with other European countries, conducted a secret study from 1951 to 1954, also concluding that UFOs were extraterrestrial. This study was revealed by German rocketry pioneer Hermann Oberth, who headed the study and who also made many public statements supporting the ETH in succeeding years. At the study's conclusion in 1954, Oberth declared: "These objects (UFOs) are conceived and directed by intelligent beings of a very high order. They do not originate in our solar system, perhaps not in our galaxy." Soon afterwards, in an October 24, 1954, article in The American Weekly, Oberth wrote: "It is my thesis that flying saucers are real and that they are space ships from another solar system. I think that they possibly are manned by intelligent observers who are members of a race that may have been investigating our earth for centuries..."
  • The CIA started their own internal scientific review the following day. Some CIA scientists were also seriously considering the ETH. An early memo from August was very skeptical, but also added: "...as long as a series of reports remains 'unexplainable' (interplanetary aspects and alien origin not being thoroughly excluded from consideration) caution requires that intelligence continue coverage of the subject." A report from later that month was similarly skeptical, but nevertheless concluded: "...sightings of UFOs reported at Los Alamos and Oak Ridge, at a time when the background radiation count had risen inexplicably. Here we run out of even 'blue yonder' explanations that might be tenable, and we still are left with numbers of incredible reports from credible observers." A December 1952 memo from the Assistant CIA Director of Scientific Intelligence (O/SI) was much more urgent: "...the reports of incidents convince us that there is something going on that must have immediate attention. Sightings of unexplained objects at great altitudes and traveling at high speeds in the vicinity of U.S. defense installation [sic] are of such nature that they are not attributable to natural phenomena or known types of aerial vehicles." Some of the memos also made it clear, that CIA interest in the subject was not to be made public, partly in fear of possible public panic. (Good, 331–335)
  • The CIA organized the January 1953 Robertson Panel of scientists to debunk the data collected by the Air Force's Project Blue Book. This included an engineering analysis of UFO maneuvers by Blue Book (including a motion picture film analysis by Naval scientists) that had concluded UFOs were under intelligent control and likely extraterrestrial.
  • Extraterrestrial "believers" within Project Blue Book included Major Dewey Fournet, in charge of the engineering analysis of UFO motion, who later became a board member on the civilian UFO organization NICAP. Blue Book director Edward J. Ruppelt privately commented on other firm "pro-UFO" members in the USAF investigations, including some Pentagon generals, such as Charles P. Cabell, USAF Chief of Air Intelligence, who, angry at the inaction and debunkery of Project Grudge, dissolved it in 1951, established Project Blue Book in its place, and made Ruppelt director. In 1953, Cabell became deputy director of the CIA. Another defector from the official Air Force party line was consultant J. Allen Hynek, who started out as a staunch skeptic. After 20 years of investigation, he changed positions and generally supported the ETH. He became the most publicly known UFO advocate scientist in the 1970s and 1980s.
  • The first CIA Director, Vice Admiral Roscoe H. Hillenkoetter, stated in a signed statement to Congress, also reported in The New York Times (February 28, 1960): "It is time for the truth to be brought out... Behind the scenes high-ranking Air Force officers are soberly concerned about the UFOs. However, through official secrecy and ridicule, many citizens are led to believe the unknown flying objects are nonsense... I urge immediate Congressional action to reduce the dangers from secrecy about unidentified flying objects." In 1962, in his letter of resignation from NICAP, he told director Donald Keyhoe, "I know the UFOs are not U.S. or Soviet devices. All we can do now is wait for some actions by the UFOs."
  • Although the 1968 Condon Report came to a negative conclusion (written by Condon), it is known that many members of the study strongly disagreed with Condon's methods and biases. Most quit the project in disgust, or were fired for insubordination. A few became ETH supporters. Perhaps the best known example is David Saunders, who in his 1968 book UFOs? Yes lambasted Condon for extreme bias, and for ignoring or misrepresenting critical evidence. Saunders wrote: "It is clear... that the sightings have been going on for too long to explain in terms of straightforward terrestrial intelligence. It's in this sense that ETI (Extra Terrestrial Intelligence) stands as the 'least implausible' explanation of 'real UFOs'."
  • In 1999, the private French COMETA report (written primarily by military defense analysts) stated the conclusion regarding UFO phenomena, that a "single hypothesis sufficiently takes into account the facts and, for the most part, only calls for present-day science. It is the hypothesis of extraterrestrial visitors." The report noted issues with formulating the extraterrestrial hypothesis, likening its study to the study of meteorites, but concluded, that although it was far from the best scientific hypothesis, "strong presumptions exist in its favour". The report also concludes, that the studies it presents, "demonstrate the almost certain physical reality of completely unknown flying objects with remarkable flight performances and noiselessness, apparently operated by intelligent ... Secret craft definitely of earthly origins (drones, stealth aircraft, etc.) can only explain a minority of cases. If we go back far enough in time, we clearly perceive the limits of this explanation."
  • Jean-Jacques Velasco, the head of the official French UFO investigation SEPRA, wrote a book in 2005, saying, that 14% of the 5800 cases studied by SEPRA were 'utterly inexplicable and extraterrestrial' in origin. However, the CNES own report says 28% of sightings remain unidentified. Yves Sillard, the head of the new official French UFO investigation GEIPAN and former head of French space agency CNES, echoes Velasco's comments and adds, that the United States 'is guilty of covering up this information.' However, this is not the official public posture of SEPRA, CNES, or the French government. (The CNES placed their 5,800 case files on the Internet starting March 2007.)

Official White House position

In November 2011, the White House released an official response to two petitions asking the U.S. government to acknowledge formally that aliens have visited Earth and to disclose any intentional withholding of government interactions with extraterrestrial beings. According to the response, "The U.S. government has no evidence that any life exists outside our planet, or that an extraterrestrial presence has contacted or engaged any member of the human race." Also, according to the response, there is "no credible information to suggest that any evidence is being hidden from the public's eye." The response further noted that efforts, like SETI, the Kepler space telescope and the NASA Mars rover, continue looking for signs of life. The response noted "the odds are pretty high" that there may be life on other planets but "the odds of us making contact with any of them—especially any intelligent ones—are extremely small, given the distances involved."

See also

References

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  47. Document quoted and published in Timothy Good (2007), 106–107, 115; USAFE Item 14, TT 1524, (Top Secret), 4 November 1948, declassified in 1997, National Archives, Washington D.C.
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