| Revision as of 08:52, 24 January 2022 editRalbegen (talk | contribs)Autopatrolled, Extended confirmed users12,370 edits Wragg/GhaniTag: Visual edit← Previous edit | Revision as of 10:33, 29 January 2022 edit undoAttleeSenpai (talk | contribs)48 edits Tugendhat declaration of interestTags: Visual edit Mobile edit Mobile web editNext edit → | ||
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| == Candidates == | == Candidates == | ||
| === Publicaly expressed interest === | |||
| *], chair of the ]<ref name="dark-horse" /><ref>{{Cite news|last=Newton Dunn|first=Tom|date=2022-01-29|title=Tom Tugendhat interview: ‘Serving as PM would be a huge privilege. I don’t know why others are coy about it’|language=en|work=The Times|url=https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tom-tugendhat-interview-serving-as-pm-would-be-a-huge-privilege-i-dont-know-why-others-are-coy-about-it-023t3pcjk|access-date=2022-01-29|issn=}}</ref> | |||
| === Potential === | === Potential === | ||
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| * ], ]<ref name = "i-next-pm">{{Cite web|title=If Boris Johnson goes, his critics may find they like the next Prime Minister even less|url=https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-goes-critics-may-find-like-next-prime-minister-even-less-1407295|date=18 January 2022|last=Gye|first=Hugo|access-date=19 January 2022|work=i|language=en}}</ref> | * ], ]<ref name = "i-next-pm">{{Cite web|title=If Boris Johnson goes, his critics may find they like the next Prime Minister even less|url=https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-goes-critics-may-find-like-next-prime-minister-even-less-1407295|date=18 January 2022|last=Gye|first=Hugo|access-date=19 January 2022|work=i|language=en}}</ref> | ||
| * ], ]<ref name = "i-next-pm"/> | * ], ]<ref name = "i-next-pm"/> | ||
| * ], chair of the ]<ref name = "dark-horse"/> | |||
| * ], ]<ref name="The Times"/> | * ], ]<ref name="The Times"/> | ||
Revision as of 10:33, 29 January 2022
UK Conservative Party leadership electionThe next Conservative Party leadership election will take place in the future to determine Boris Johnson's successor as leader of the Conservative Party and prime minister of the United Kingdom.
Background
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2019 leadership election
Main article: 2019 Conservative Party leadership electionDavid Cameron resigned as prime minister of the United Kingdom in 2016 following the result of the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, which was for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union (EU). The subsequent leadership election had been expected to be between Theresa May, who had been the home secretary since 2010, and Boris Johnson, a writer who had served as mayor of London from 2008 until earlier in 2016. Michael Gove, who had been expected to support Johnson, announced his own leadership campaign, citing doubts about Johnson. Johnson withdrew from the election, which was eventually won by May.
As prime minister, May began to negoiate a withdrawal agreement with the EU. After triggering Article 50, a legal process that started the UK's formal departure from the EU, she called an early general election, aiming to secure a larger Conservative majority to support her proposals for Brexit. However, the result of the election was a hung parliament, with the Conservatives losing their majority. In order to continue governing, May negotiated a confidence-and-supply agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party. In December 2018, the Conservative Party triggered a vote of no confidence in May. She told Conservative MPs that she would resign after the UK's withdrawal from the EU, and before the next election. She survived the vote with 200 Conservative MPs voting for confidence and 117 voting for no confidence. The leader of the Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn, called a vote of no confidence against May in the House of Commons, which she survived by 325 votes to 306. May was unable to pass her Brexit withdrawal agreement through several Parliamentary votes, and announced her resignation in May 2019.
Ten MPs were nominated in the 2019 leadership election, and they went through sequential ballots of Conservative MPs until two candidates remained: the foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt, and Johnson, who had served as foreign secretary under May before resigning from her cabinet. Hunt and Johnson went to a vote by Conservative Party members, which saw Johnson elected with 66.4% of the vote to Hunt's 33.6%.
2019 general election
Main article: 2019 United Kingdom general electionAs prime minister, Johnson initially had a majority of a single vote. He lost this when the Conservative MP Phillip Lee crossed the floor on 3 September 2019 to join the Liberal Democrats, accusing Johnson's government of "aggressively pursuing a damaging Brexit in unprincipled ways". Twenty-one Conservative MPs voted to allow the House of Commons to consider a bill tabled by the Labour MP Hilary Benn that would require Johnson to seek an extension to date of the UK's withdrawal from the European Union from 31 October 2019 to 31 January 2020 if Parliament had not approved a withdrawal agreement or voted to allow the UK to leave the EU without a deal. Johnson removed the whip from the twenty-one MPs in what The Daily Telegraph described as "one of the biggest parliamentary bloodbaths in history". Shortly after, Amber Rudd resigned from Johnson's cabinet and left the Conservative Party in protest, and Johnson's brother Jo Johnson resigned as a minister and announced that he'd stand down as an MP.
Johnson sought an early general election, but was initially unsuccessful as a majority of MPs wanted to remove the possibility of the UK leaving the EU without a deal. After Benn's bill became law despite Johnson's opposition, he agreed an extension to the UK's withdrawal date and negotiated revisions to the withdrawal agreement. He went on to put forward the Early Parliamentary General Election Act 2019, which passed and resulted in the 2019 general election. The Conservative Party won a majority of eighty, with 365 seats. They gained seats in the north of England that had been held by the Labour Party for decades. Five of the MPs Johnson suspended unsuccessfully stood in the election as independent or Liberal Democrat candidates.
Westminster lockdown parties controversy
Main article: Westminster lockdown parties controversyFrom December 2021, the media reported that there had been social gatherings by Conservative Party and UK government staff during public health restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. These included an occasion in which Johnson and his wife were pictured with seventeen staff members having cheese and wine in the garden of 10 Downing Street during the first COVID-19 lockdown in the United Kingdom, which a spokesperson later said was a work meeting. Johnson admitted attending "socially distanced drinks" organised by Martin Reynolds, Johnson's principal private secretary, also during the same lockdown. Johnson said he thought it was a work meeting, while Dominic Cummings, who was an adviser to Johnson at the time, said that he had warned the prime minister against it. A leaving event for James Slack, who had served as director of communications before leaving to become deputy editor of The Sun, was held the day before the funeral of Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh. An inquiry into the allegations was begun by the cabinet secretary Simon Case, but after it was reported that his own office had held a party in December 2020, the inquiry was passed to Sue Gray, another senior civil servant.
There was negative reaction against Johnson from Conservative MPs, with some calling for him to resign. Johnson said "nobody said this was something that was against the rules" and that he took "full responsibility for what took place".
Conservative Party rules mean that a confidence vote is triggered by 15% of MPs sending letters to the chair of the 1922 Committee, Graham Brady. There were reports that the threshold would be reached imminently in January 2022. The Guardian reported that several Conservative MPs were waiting until Gray's report into the alleged parties before deciding whether to send letters to Brady. The Conservative MP Christian Wakeford defected to the Labour Party on 19 January 2022, saying that Johnson and the Conservative Party were "incapable of offering the leadership and government this country deserves". The New Statesman reported that some Conservative MPs were delaying sending letters to Brady after Wakeford's defection demonstrated that division in the Conservative Party benefitted Labour. Around the same time, the Conservative MP William Wragg said that his party's whips were using blackmail and threats of withdrawing funding in MPs' constituencies in order to secure their votes. Another Conservative MP, Nus Ghani, said that a whip had told her that her Muslimness was discussed when deciding to fire her from her ministerial role in 2020. Wragg and Ghani were both vice-chairs of the 1922 Committee, which was said to be considering reducing the period after an unsuccessful vote of no confidence before which a new vote could be triggered from twelve months to six months. The Times reported these as all being serious threats to Johnson being able to remain in his position.
Procedure
The principles of the procedure for selecting the leader of the Conservative Party are set in the party's constitution, while the detailed rules are agreed by the 1922 Committee executive in consultation with the Conservative Party Board. Nominations for the leadership are invited by the chair of the 1922 Committee, who acts as returning officer. When nominations close, a list of valid nominations is published. If there is only one valid nomination, that person is elected. If two valid nominations are received, both names go forward to the party membership.
Candidates
Publicaly expressed interest
- Tom Tugendhat, chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee
Potential
The following Conservative Party politicians have been speculated about by the media as potential candidates in the next Conservative Party leadership election:
- Steve Baker, former chair of the European Research Group
- Michael Gove, Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities
- Matt Hancock, former Secretary of State for Health and Social Care
- Mark Harper, MP for Forest of Dean
- Jeremy Hunt, former Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs
- Sajid Javid, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care
- Esther McVey, former Secretary of State for Work and Pensions
- Penny Mordaunt, Minister of State for Trade Policy
- Priti Patel, Home Secretary
- Dominic Raab, Deputy Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Secretary of State for Justice
- Rishi Sunak, Chancellor of the Exchequer
- Liz Truss, Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs
- Nadhim Zahawi, Secretary of State for Education
Opinion polling
Party members
Nominations
The polling company Opinium Research asked Conservative Party members to select which one or two potential candidates they wanted MPs to put forward to a members' vote.
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Michael Gove |
Jeremy Hunt |
Sajid Javid |
Priti Patel |
Dominic Raab |
Rishi Sunak |
Liz Truss |
Nadhim Zahawi |
Others | Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13–17 Jan 2022 | Opinium | Channel 4 | 704 | 12% | 9% | 14% | 9% | 13% | 44% | 33% | 4% | 10% | 18% |
Head-to-head
Polling firms have asked Conservative party members which candidate they would vote for under various head-to-head scenarios.
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Jeremy Hunt |
Rishi Sunak |
Liz Truss |
Would not vote |
Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13–17 Jan 2022 | Opinium | Channel 4 | 704 | 16% | 59% | – | 9% | 15% |
| 20% | – | 48% | 13% | 20% | ||||
| – | 49% | 28% | 7% | 16% |
References
- "David Cameron resigns after UK votes to leave European Union". the Guardian. 2016-06-24. Retrieved 2022-01-19.
- "Johnson and May rally support for Tory leadership race". The Independent. 2016-06-29. Retrieved 2022-01-19.
- Swinford, Steven (1 July 2016). "Boris Johnson's allies accuse Michael Gove of 'systematic and calculated plot' to destroy his leadership hopes". The Telegraph. Archived from the original on 19 August 2016. Retrieved 1 July 2016.
- Hughes, Laura (30 June 2016). "Boris Johnson announces he will not run for Prime Minister as Michael Gove declares his bid after claiming his colleague 'cannot provide the leadership'". The Telegraph. London, UK. Archived from the original on 30 June 2016. Retrieved 30 June 2016.
- "Boris Johnson rules himself out of Conservative leader race". BBC News. 30 June 2016. Archived from the original on 1 July 2016. Retrieved 30 June 2016.
- "May set to be confirmed as new leader of Tory Party". ITV News. Retrieved 2022-01-19.
- "General election 2017: Why did Theresa May call an election?". BBC News. 2017-06-09. Retrieved 2022-01-19.
- "Results of the 2017 General Election - BBC News". www.bbc.co.uk. Retrieved 2022-01-19.
- Maidment, Jack (26 June 2017). "DUP agrees £1bn deal with Conservatives to prop up Theresa May's minority Government". The Telegraph. Archived from the original on 26 June 2017. Retrieved 26 June 2017.
- "Theresa May survives vote of no confidence with clear support from MPs". The Independent. 2018-12-13. Retrieved 2022-01-19.
- "Theresa May resigns: The PM announced she would quit as party leader on 7 June". BBC News. Retrieved 2022-01-19.
- "Boris Johnson elected new Tory leader". the Guardian. 2019-07-23. Retrieved 2022-01-19.
- "Phillip Lee quits Tories, leaving government without a majority". the Guardian. 2019-09-03. Retrieved 2022-01-19.
- Mikhailova, Anna (2019-09-04). "Boris Johnson to strip 21 Tory MPs of the Tory whip in parliamentary bloodbath". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 2022-01-19.
- "Jo Johnson quits as MP and minister, citing 'national interest'". the Guardian. 2019-09-05. Retrieved 2022-01-19.
- "Amber Rudd quits cabinet and attacks PM for 'political vandalism'". the Guardian. 2019-09-07. Retrieved 2022-01-19.
- "Boris Johnson loses sixth vote in six days as election bid fails". the Guardian. 2019-09-10. Retrieved 2022-01-19.
- "Boris Johnson able to call early election under proposed new law". BBC News. 2020-12-01. Retrieved 2022-01-19.
- "Results of the 2019 General Election - BBC News". www.bbc.co.uk. Retrieved 2022-01-19.
- "Chatting over cheese and wine: anatomy of Downing Street lockdown gathering". the Guardian. 2021-12-19. Retrieved 2022-01-19.
- "Downing Street garden photo shows people working, says Boris Johnson". BBC News. 2021-12-20. Retrieved 2022-01-19.
- "No 10 drinks may have broken lockdown rules, says PM's ex-aide Dominic Cummings". BBC News. 7 January 2022. Retrieved 7 January 2022.
- "Email proves Downing Street staff held drinks party at height of lockdown". ITV News. 10 January 2022.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - "PM facing growing anger over Downing Street drinks party". BBC News. 11 January 2022. Retrieved 11 January 2022.
- "Covid: Ex No 10 staff member sorry for lockdown leaving party". BBC News. Retrieved 14 January 2022.
- "Sue Gray report: When is inquiry due, what does it mean for Boris Johnson and who decides what happens next?". Sky News. Retrieved 2022-01-19.
- Culbertson, Alix (2022-01-19). "Boris Johnson says 'nobody told me' Number 10 lockdown garden party was against the rules". Sky News.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - "Boris Johnson: More Tory MPs submit no confidence letters as pressure to oust PM mounts". Sky News. Retrieved 2022-01-19.
- "About a dozen Tory MPs said to have accused party whips of blackmail". the Guardian. 2022-01-22. Retrieved 2022-01-22.
- "Tory MP Christian Wakeford defects to Labour". BBC News. 2022-01-19. Retrieved 2022-01-19.
- "Why Tory MPs have given Boris Johnson a stay of execution". New Statesman. 2022-01-19. Retrieved 2022-01-19.
- "About a dozen Tory MPs said to have accused party whips of blackmail". the Guardian. 2022-01-22. Retrieved 2022-01-24.
- Pogrund, Caroline Wheeler, Rosamund Urwin and Gabriel. "Nusrat Ghani: I was sacked as a minister 'because I was a Muslim'". ISSN 0140-0460. Retrieved 2022-01-24.
{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - Correspondent, Henry Zeffman, Chief Political. "Boris Johnson survival: Grenades are going off everywhere — but will any prove fatal?". ISSN 0140-0460. Retrieved 2022-01-24.
{{cite news}}:|last=has generic name (help)CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - Johnston, Neil (24 May 2019). "Leadership elections: Conservative Party" (PDF). Briefing Paper Number 01366. House of Commons Library. p. 5. Retrieved 24 May 2019.
- ^ Payne, Adam (17 January 2022). "Penny Mordaunt Emerges As Dark Horse Tory Leadership Candidate To Succeed Boris Johnson". PoliticsHome. Retrieved 19 January 2022.
- Newton Dunn, Tom (2022-01-29). "Tom Tugendhat interview: 'Serving as PM would be a huge privilege. I don't know why others are coy about it'". The Times. Retrieved 2022-01-29.
- ^ Pogrund, Gabriel (19 January 2022). "Who will replace Boris Johnson and be the next prime minister?". The Times. Retrieved 19 January 2022.
- ^ Walker, Peter (19 January 2022). "Who are the outside bets for Tory leader if Boris Johnson goes?". The Guardian. Retrieved 19 January 2022.
- Samuelson, Kate (18 January 2022). "Penny Mordaunt: the 'dark horse candidate' to become next Tory leader". The Week UK. Retrieved 19 January 2022.
- ^ Gye, Hugo (18 January 2022). "If Boris Johnson goes, his critics may find they like the next Prime Minister even less". i. Retrieved 19 January 2022.
- Crump, Jonathon (13 January 2022). "Who could replace Boris Johnson as Prime Minister if he stepped down?". MyLondon. Retrieved 19 January 2022.
