| Revision as of 20:22, 6 October 2015 editFrinton100 (talk | contribs)Extended confirmed users3,763 edits Undid revision 684430302 by 2.98.38.127 (talk)← Previous edit | Revision as of 22:57, 6 October 2015 edit undo2.98.38.127 (talk) Undid revision 684467878 Please dont edit war.There is an established consensus for this format,see below links.If you support a change,you need to raise it on the talk page and make evetyone who established the previous consensus aware of the discusionNext edit → | ||
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| leaders_seat4 = {{nowrap|] ''(List)''}}<br>''standing in {{nowrap|] (List)}} and {{nowrap|]''}} | ||
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| | party4 = Scottish Liberal Democrats | |||
| | leaders_seat4 = {{nowrap|] ''(List)''}} <br>''standing in {{nowrap|]''}} | |||
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| | party5 = Scottish |
| party5 = Scottish Liberal Democrats | ||
| | leaders_seat5 = {{nowrap|] ''(List)''}}<br>''standing in {{nowrap|]}}'' (Harvie) <br>''standing in {{nowrap|] |
| leaders_seat5 = {{nowrap|] ''(List)''}} <br>''standing in {{nowrap|]''}} | ||
| ⚫ | | leader_since5 = {{nowrap|]}} | ||
| | last_election5 = 2 seats, 4.4% | |||
| ⚫ | | last_election5 = 5 seats, 5.2% | ||
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| ← outgoing members | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
All 129 seats to the Scottish Parliament 65 Seats are needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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1
The 2016 Scottish Parliament election is due to be held on Thursday 5 May 2016 to elect 129 members to the Scottish Parliament. It would be the fifth general election since the devolved parliament was established in 1999.
Date
Under the Scotland Act 1998, an ordinary general election to the Scottish Parliament would normally have been held on the first Thursday in May four years after the 2011 election, i.e. in May 2015. In May 2010, the new UK Government stated in the coalition agreement that the next United Kingdom general election would also be held in May 2015. This proposal was criticised by the Scottish National Party and Labour, as it had been recommended after the 2007 election that elections with different voting systems should be held on separate days: a recommendation which all of the political parties had then accepted. In response to this criticism, Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg offered the right to vary the date of the Scottish Parliament election by a year either way. All the main political parties then stated their support for delaying the election by a year. The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, a statute of the Westminster Parliament, moved the date of the Scottish Parliament general election to 5 May 2016.
The date of the poll may be varied by up to one month either way by the monarch, on the proposal of the Presiding Officer.
If Parliament itself resolves that it should be dissolved, with at least two-thirds of the Members (i.e. 86 Members) voting in favour, the Presiding Officer proposes a date for an extraordinary general election and the Parliament is dissolved by the monarch by royal proclamation.
It does not necessarily require a two-thirds majority to precipitate an extraordinary general election, because under the Scotland Act Parliament is also dissolved if it fails to nominate one of its members to be First Minister within certain time limits, irrespective of whether at the beginning or in the middle of a parliamentary term. Therefore, if the First Minister resigned, Parliament would then have 28 days to elect a successor (s46(2)b and s46(3)a). If no new First Minister was elected then the Presiding Officer would ask for Parliament to be dissolved under s3(1)a. This process could also be triggered if the First Minister lost a vote of confidence by a simple majority (i.e. more than 50%), as s/he must then resign (Scotland Act 1998 s45(2)). To date the Parliament has never held a confidence vote on a First Minister.
No extraordinary general elections have been held to date. Any extraordinary general elections would be in addition to ordinary general elections, unless held less than six months before the due date of an ordinary general election, in which case they supplant it. The subsequent ordinary general election reverts to the first Thursday in May, a multiple of four years after 1999.
It was envisaged that the general election would still have taken place as scheduled if Scotland had voted in favour of independence in 2014.
2011 results
The table below shows the figures for seats won by each party at the 2011 election. In the days after the 2011 election, which resulted in an SNP overall majority, Iain Gray, Annabel Goldie and Tavish Scott resigned as leaders of the Scottish Labour Party, Scottish Conservative Party and Scottish Liberal Democrats respectively.
| Party | Constituency seats | Regional seats | Total seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNP | 53 | 16 | 69 |
| Labour | 15 | 22 | 37 |
| Conservative | 3 | 12 | 15 |
| Liberal Democrat | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Scottish Green | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Independent | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Totals | 73 | 56 | 129 |
Retiring MSPs
Deselected MSPs
| Constituency | Selected Candidate | Deselected MSP | Party | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angus North and Mearns | Mairi Evans | Nigel Don | style="background-color: Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color" | | Scottish National Party |
| Edinburgh Western | Toni Giugliano | Colin Keir | style="background-color: Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color" | | Scottish National Party |
Election system, seats, and regions
Main article: Scottish Parliament constituencies and regions from 2011The total number of Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) elected to the Parliament is 129.
The First Periodical Review of the Scottish Parliament's constituencies and regions by the Boundary Commission for Scotland, was announced on 3 July 2007. The Commission published its provisional proposals for the regional boundaries in 2009.
The Scottish Parliament uses an Additional Members System, designed to produce approximate proportional representation for each region. There are 8 regions, each sub-divided into smaller constituencies. There are a total of 73 constituencies. Each constituency elects one MSP by the plurality (first past the post) system of election. Each region elects 7 additional MSPs using an additional member system. A modified D'Hondt method, using the constituency results, is used to elect these additional MSPs.
The Scottish Parliament constituencies have not been coterminous with Scottish Westminster constituencies since the 2005 general election, when the 72 former Westminster constituencies were replaced with a new set of 59, generally larger, constituencies (see Scottish Parliament (Constituencies) Act 2004). The boundaries used for the Scottish Parliament elections were then revised for the 2011 election. The Boundary Commission also recommended changes to the electoral regions used to elect "list" members of the Scottish Parliament, which were also implemented in 2011.
Opinion Polling
Constituency Vote (FPTP)
2015
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Lab | Cons | Lib Dem | Others | Lead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 September | Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader of the Labour Party | |||||||||
| 7–10 Sep | Survation/The Scottish Daily Mail | 1,010 | 53% | 22% | 14% | 6% | 5% | 31% | ||
| 7–10 Sep | YouGov/The Times | 1,110 | 51% | 22% | 18% | 4% | 5% | 29% | ||
| 12 Aug–1 Sep | TNS | 1,023 | 58% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 35% | ||
| 24-30 Aug | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,002 | 55% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 6% | 35% | ||
| 15 Aug | Kezia Dugdale becomes leader of Scottish Labour | |||||||||
| 10 July–3 Aug | TNS | 1,029 | 62% | 20% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 42% | ||
| 19 June–8 July | TNS | 1,056 | 60% | 20% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 40% | ||
| 3–7 July | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,084 | 56% | 20% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 36% | ||
| 13–30 May | TNS | 1,031 | 60% | 19% | 15% | 3% | 3% | 41% | ||
| 16 May | Jim Murphy resigns as leader of Scottish Labour | |||||||||
| 7 May | UK General Election 2015 | |||||||||
| 29 Apr–1 May | YouGov/The Times | 1,162 | 49% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 24% | ||
| 22–27 Apr | Survation/Daily Record | 1,015 | 54% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 4% | 30% | ||
| 16–20 Apr | YouGov/The Times | 1,111 | 51% | 25% | 14% | 6% | 4% | 26% | ||
| 8–9 Apr | YouGov/The Times | 1,056 | 49% | 24% | 16% | 5% | 5% | 25% | ||
| 13–19 Mar | ICM/Guardian | 1,002 | 46% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 9% | 20% | ||
| 12–17 Mar | Survation/Daily Record | 1,027 | 50% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 6% | 24% | ||
| 10–12 Mar | YouGov/The Times | 1,049 | 46% | 27% | 14% | 4% | 5% | 19% | ||
| 12–17 Feb | Survation/Daily Record | 1,011 | 48% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 7% | 20% | ||
| 29 Jan–2 Feb | YouGov/The Times | 1,001 | 51% | 26% | 12% | 4% | 7% | 25% | ||
| 14 Jan–2 Feb | TNS | 1,006 | 47% | 31% | 13% | 4% | 5% | 16% | ||
| 12–19 Jan | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,001 | 53% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 7% | 29% | ||
2014
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Lab | Cons | Lib Dem | Others | Lead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16-18 Dec | ICM/Guardian | 1,004 | 44% | 26% | 12% | 6% | 11% | 18% | ||
| 15-18 Dec | Survation/Daily Record | 1,000 | 51% | 25% | 15% | 5% | 5% | 26% | ||
| 13 Dec | Jim Murphy becomes leader of Scottish Labour | |||||||||
| 9-11 Dec | YouGov/The Sun | 1,081 | 50% | 28% | 14% | 3% | 5% | 22% | ||
| 27 Nov | Release of Smith Commission Report | |||||||||
| 20 Nov | Nicola Sturgeon becomes First Minister of Scotland | |||||||||
| 16 Nov | Nicola Sturgeon becomes leader of the SNP | |||||||||
| 6-13 Nov | Survation/Daily Record | 1,001 | 50% | 23% | 14% | 7% | 6% | 27% | ||
| 27 - 30 Oct | YouGov/Times | 1,078 | 46% | 28% | 12% | 5% | 9% | 18% | ||
| 22 - 29 Oct | Ipsos MORI | 1,026 | 57% | 23% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 34% | ||
| 24 Oct | Johann Lamont resigns as leader of the Scottish Labour Party, triggering a leadership election | |||||||||
| 12 Sep - 1 Oct | Panelbase/Scottish National Party | 1,049 | 42% | 27% | 15% | 5% | 10% | 15% | ||
| 19 Sep | Survation/Daily Mail | 871 | 49% | 31% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 18% | ||
| 19 Sep | First Minister Alex Salmond announces his resignation, triggering a leadership election | |||||||||
| 18 Sep | Scottish independence referendum | |||||||||
| 15 Sep - 17 Sep | YouGov/The Sun | 3,237 | 40% | 32% | 15% | 4% | 9% | 8% | ||
| 12 Sep - 16 Sep | Survation/Daily Mail | 1,000 | 42% | 31% | 15% | 6% | 6% | 11% | ||
| 9 Sep - 11 Sep | YouGov/The Times/The Sun | 1,268 | 39% | 35% | 15% | 4% | 8% | 4% | ||
| 5 Sep - 9 Sep | Survation/Daily Record | 1,000 | 43% | 33% | 14% | 4% | 5% | 10% | ||
| 2 - 5 Sep | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,084 | 40% | 33% | 16% | 4% | 8% | 7% | ||
| 28 Aug - 1 Sep | YouGov/The Times/The Sun | 1,063 | 39% | 34% | 15% | 5% | 7% | 5% | ||
| 12 - 15 Aug | YouGov/The Times | 1,085 | 37% | 37% | 15% | 4% | 7% | Tied | ||
| 4 - 7 Aug | YouGov/The Sun | 1,142 | 36% | 37% | 16% | 4% | 7% | 1% | ||
| 28 Jul - 3 Aug | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,006 | 36% | 34% | 16% | 6% | 8% | 2% | ||
| 4 - 8 Jul | Survation/Daily Record | 1,013 | 44% | 31% | 13% | 5% | 7% | 13% | ||
| 25 - 29 Jun | YouGov/The Times | 1,206 | 35% | 37% | 15% | 6% | 8% | 2% | ||
| 12 - 16 Jun | YouGov/The Sun | 1,039 | 35% | 37% | 14% | 5% | 9% | 2% | ||
| 8 - 10 Jun | Survation/Daily Record | 1,004 | 46% | 28% | 13% | 6% | 6% | 18% | ||
| 16 May - 1 Jun | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,003 | 39% | 30% | 14% | 5% | 12% | 9% | ||
| 22 May | European Parliament election, 2014 | |||||||||
| 9–12 May | Survation/Daily Record | 1,003 | 44% | 32% | 15% | 5% | 4% | 12% | ||
| 11 - 15 Apr | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,002 | 46% | 32% | 13% | 6% | 4% | 14% | ||
| 4 - 7 Apr | Survation/Daily Record | 1,001 | 45% | 32% | 14% | 6% | 4% | 13% | ||
| 20 - 24 Mar | YouGov/The Times | 1,002 | 38% | 35% | 13% | 7% | 7% | 3% | ||
| 6 - 7 Mar | Survation/Daily Record/Better Nation | 1,002 | 45% | 34% | 13% | 5% | 4% | 11% | ||
| 24 - 28 Feb | YouGov | 1,257 | 39% | 37% | 14% | 5% | 5% | 2% | ||
| 17 - 18 Feb | Survation/Daily Mail | 1,005 | 44% | 31% | 13% | 6% | 6% | 13% | ||
| 29 Jan - 6 Feb | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,012 | 43% | 32% | 14% | 6% | 6% | 11% | ||
| 29-31 Jan | Survation/Mail on Sunday | 1,010 | 38% | 36% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 2% | ||
| 21-27 Jan | YouGov | 1,192 | 34% | 38% | 15% | 5% | 7% | 4% | ||
| 23 Jan | Cowdenbeath by-election, 2014 | |||||||||
2013
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Lab | Cons | Lib Dem | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13-20 Dec | Panelbase/Scottish National Party | 1,012 | 40% | 32% | 15% | 5% | 8% | 8% |
| 29 Nov - 5 Dec | Ipsos MORI/STV News | 1,006 | 36% | 34% | 15% | 7% | 7% | 2% |
| 24 October | Dunfermline by-election, 2013 | |||||||
| 9-15 Sep | Ipsos MORI | 1,000 | 41% | 37% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 4% |
| 30 Aug - 5 Sep | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,002 | 45% | 32% | 12% | 5% | 6% | 13% |
| 17-24 Jul | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,001 | 48% | 30% | 13% | 4% | 5% | 18% |
| 20 June | Aberdeen Donside by-election, 2013 | |||||||
| 29 Apr - 5 May | Ipsos MORI/The Times | 1,001 | 39% | 36% | 16% | 8% | 1% | 2% |
| 4-9 Feb | Ipsos MORI/The Times | 1,003 | 43% | 35% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 8% |
2012
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Lab | Cons | Lib Dem | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8-15 Oct | Ipsos MORI/The Times | 1,003 | 40% | 35% | 13% | 8% | 4% | 5% |
| 7-13 Jun | Ipsos MORI | 1,003 | 45% | 32% | 12% | 6% | 5% | 13% |
| 3 May | Scottish local elections, 2012 | |||||||
| 27 - 29 Jan | Ipsos MORI | 1,005 | 49% | 23% | 13% | 10% | 5% | 26% |
| 26 Jan - 1 Feb | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,008 | 43% | 25% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 18% |
2011
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Lab | Cons | Lib Dem | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 May | General Election Result | 1,989,222 | 45.4% | 31.7% | 13.9% | 7.9% | 1.1% | 13.7% |
Regional Vote (AMS)
Graphical summary
The chart shows the relative state of the parties from the start of 2014, when regular polling began, to the date the next election is held.
2015
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Lab | Cons | Green | Lib Dem | UKIP | SSP | Others | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 September | Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader of the Labour Party | |||||||||||
| 7–10 Sep | Survation/The Scottish Daily Mail | 1,010 | 42% | 21% | 13% | 11% | 6% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 21% | |
| 7–10 Sep | YouGov/The Times | 1,110 | 45% | 20% | 18% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 25% | |
| 12 Aug–1 Sep | TNS | 1,023 | 51% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 6% | 1% | <0.5% | 1% | 27% | |
| 24-30 August | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,002 | 50% | 20% | 12% | 8% | 7% | <0.5% | — | 2% | 30% | |
| 15 August | Kezia Dugdale becomes leader of Scottish Labour | |||||||||||
| 10 July - 3 August | TNS | 1,029 | 54% | 20% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 34% | |
| 19 June-8 July | TNS | 1,056 | 51% | 21% | 13% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 30% | |
| 3-7 July | Survation/Daily Mail | 1,031 | 45% | 19% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 5% | — | 0% | 26% | |
| 13-30 May | TNS | 1,031 | 50% | 19% | 14% | 10% | 5% | 2% | — | 0% | 31% | |
| 16 May | Jim Murphy resigns as leader of Scottish Labour | |||||||||||
| 7 May | United Kingdom general election, 2015 | |||||||||||
| 29 Apr-1 May | YouGov/The Times | 1,162 | 43% | 24% | 16% | 7% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 19% | |
| 22-27 Apr | Survation/Daily Record | 1,015 | 44% | 21% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 5% | — | 1% | 23% | |
| 16 - 20 Apr | YouGov/The Times | 1,111 | 42% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 17% | |
| 8 - 9 Apr | YouGov/The Times | 1,056 | 42% | 24% | 16% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 18% | |
| 13 - 19 Mar | Survation/Daily Record | 1,002 | 42% | 26% | 14% | 5% | 6% | 6% | — | 1% | 16% | |
| 12 - 17 Mar | Survation/Daily Record | 1,027 | 39% | 23% | 15% | 11% | 5% | 6% | — | 2% | 16% | |
| 10 - 12 Mar | YouGov/The Times | 1,001 | 43% | 25% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 18% | |
| 12-17 Feb | Survation/Daily Record | 1,011 | 39% | 22% | 12% | 13% | 7% | 7% | <0.5% | 1% | 17% | |
| 29 Jan - 2 Feb | YouGov/The Times | 1,001 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 20% | |
| 14 Jan - 2 Feb | TNS BMRB | 1,006 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 9% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 18% | |
| 12-19 Jan | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,001 | 48% | 22% | 11% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 26% | |
2014
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Lab | Cons | Green | Lib Dem | UKIP | SSP | Others | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15-18 Dec | Survation/Daily Record | 1,000 | 40% | 24% | 14% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 16% | |
| 13 Dec | Jim Murphy becomes leader of Scottish Labour | |||||||||||
| 9-11 Dec | YouGov/The Sun | 1,081 | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 16% | |
| 27 Nov | Release of Smith Commission Report | |||||||||||
| 20 Nov | Nicola Sturgeon becomes First Minister of Scotland | |||||||||||
| 16 Nov | Nicola Sturgeon becomes leader of the SNP | |||||||||||
| 6-13 Nov | Survation/Daily Record | 1,001 | 41% | 20% | 13% | 10% | 6% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 21% | |
| 27 - 30 Oct | YouGov/Times | 1,078 | 38% | 26% | 12% | 10% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 12% | |
| 22 - 29 Oct | Ipsos MORI | 1,026 | 50% | 23% | 8% | 10% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 27% | |
| 24 Oct | Johann Lamont resigns as leader of the Scottish Labour Party, triggering a leadership election | |||||||||||
| 12 Sep - 1 Oct | Panelbase/Scottish National Party | 1,049 | 37% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 10% | ||
| 19 Sep | First Minister Alex Salmond announces his resignation, triggering a leadership election | |||||||||||
| 18 Sep | Scottish independence referendum, 2014 | |||||||||||
| 15 Sep - 17 Sep | YouGov/The Sun | 3,237 | 35% | 30% | 15% | 9% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 5% | |
| 12 Sep - 16 Sep | Survation/Daily Mail | 1,000 | 37% | 26% | 13% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 11% | |
| 9 Sep - 11 Sep | YouGov/The Times/The Sun | 1,268 | 34% | 33% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | |
| 5 Sep - 9 Sep | Survation/Daily Record | 1,000 | 38% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 5% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 11% | |
| 2 Sep - 5 Sep | YouGov/The Sunday Times | 1,084 | 34% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 3% | |
| 28 Aug - 1 Sep | YouGov/The Times/The Sun | 1,063 | 33% | 33% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | Tied | |
| 12–15 August | YouGov/The Times | 1,085 | 32% | 34% | 14% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% | |
| 4–7 August | YouGov/The Sun | 1,142 | 31% | 35% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 4% | |
| 4–8 July | Survation/Daily Record | 1,013 | 37% | 26% | 13% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 0% | 1% | 11% | |
| 25–29 June | YouGov/The Times | 1,206 | 29% | 35% | 14% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 6% | |
| 12–16 June | YouGov/The Sun | 1,039 | 31% | 33% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 2% | |
| 8–10 June | Survation/Daily Record | 1,004 | 39% | 26% | 10% | 10% | 6% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 13% | |
| 22 June | European Parliament election, 2014 | |||||||||||
| 9–12 May | Survation/Daily Record | 1,003 | 39% | 26% | 11% | 9% | 6% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 13% | |
| 11 - 15 Apr | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,001 | 38% | 28% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 10% | |
| 4 - 7 Apr | Survation/Daily Record | 1,002 | 41% | 25% | 12% | 7% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 16% | ||
| 20 - 24 Mar | YouGov/The Times | 1,072 | 33% | 33% | 13% | 7% | 7% | 3% | 4% | 1% | Tied | |
| 6 - 7 Mar | Survation/Daily Record/Better Nation | 1,002 | 40% | 28% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 12% | |
| 24 - 28 Feb | YouGov | 1,257 | 33% | 35% | 14% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 2% | |
| 17 - 18 Feb | Survation/Daily Mail | 1,005 | 41% | 29% | 13% | 3% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 12% | |
| 26 Jan - 6 Feb | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,012 | 44% | 27% | 13% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 17% | ||
| 21-27 Jan | YouGov | 1,192 | 34% | 33% | 14% | 7% | 6% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 1% | |
| 23 January | Cowdenbeath by-election, 2014 | |||||||||||
2013
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Lab | Cons | Green | Lib Dem | Others | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 - 20 Dec | Panelbase/Scottish National Party | 1,012 | 40% | 31% | 14% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 9% | |
| 24 October | Dunfermline by-election, 2013 | |||||||||
| 30 Aug - 5 Sep | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,002 | 46% | 28% | 12% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 18% | |
| 17 - 24 Jul | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,001 | 48% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 23% | |
| 20 June | Aberdeen Donside by-election, 2013 | |||||||||
2012
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Lab | Cons | Green | Lib Dem | Others | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 - 19 Oct | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 972 | 40% | 27% | 11% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 13% | |
| 3 May | Scottish local elections, 2012 | |||||||||
| 26 Jan - 1 Feb | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,008 | 41% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 16% | |
2011
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Lab | Cons | Lib Dem | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 May | General Election Result | 1,991,051 | 44% | 26.3% | 12.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 17.7% |
Top target seats of the main parties
Below are listed all the constituencies which required a swing of less than 5% from the 2011 result to change hands.
SNP targets
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2011 | Swing to gain | SNP's place 2011 | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | East Lothian
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Scottish Labour Party" | |
Labour | 0.24 | 2nd | ||
| 2 | Greenock & Inverclyde
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Scottish Labour Party" | |
Labour | 0.91 | 2nd | ||
| 3 | Edinburgh Northern & Leith
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Scottish Labour Party" | |
Labour | 0.97 | 2nd | ||
| 4 | Motherwell & Wishaw
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Scottish Labour Party" | |
Labour | 1.21 | 2nd | ||
| 5 | Uddingston & Bellshill
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Scottish Labour Party" | |
Labour | 1.43 | 2nd | ||
| 6 | Galloway & West Dumfries
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Scottish Conservative Party" | |
Conservative | 1.44 | 2nd | ||
| 7 | Ayr
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Scottish Conservative Party" | |
Conservative | 1.67 | 2nd | ||
| 8 | Glasgow Pollok
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Scottish Labour Party" | |
Labour | 1.36 | 2nd | ||
| 9 | Cowdenbeath
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Scottish Labour Party" | |
Labour | 2.43 | 2nd | ||
| 10 | Dumbarton
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Scottish Labour Party" | |
Labour | 2.87 | 2nd | ||
| 11 | Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Scottish Labour Party" | |
Labour | 3.15 | 2nd | ||
| 12 | Rutherglen
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Scottish Labour Party" | |
Labour | 3.28 | 2nd | ||
| 13 | Renfrewshire South
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Scottish Labour Party" | |
Labour | 4.81 | 2nd | ||
Labour targets
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2011 | Swing to gain | Labour's place 2011 | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glasgow Anniesland
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 0.02 | 2nd | ||
| 2 | Kirkcaldy
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 0.33 | 2nd | ||
| 3 | Edinburgh Central
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 0.41 | 2nd | ||
| 4 | Paisley
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 0.49 | 2nd | ||
| 5 | Edinburgh Southern
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 1.03 | 2nd | ||
| 6 | Aberdeen Central
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 1.23 | 2nd | ||
| 7 | Clydebank & Milngavie
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 1.26 | 2nd | ||
| 8 | Glasgow Shettleston
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 1.39 | 2nd | ||
| 9 | Glasgow Kelvin
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 1.80 | 2nd | ||
| 10 | Strathkelvin & Bearsden
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 2.67 | 2nd | ||
| 11 | Renfrewshire North & West
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 2.85 | 2nd | ||
| 12 | Glasgow Cathcart
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 3.04 | 2nd | ||
| 13 | East Kilbride
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 3.26 | 2nd | ||
| 14 | Edinburgh Eastern
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 3.64 | 2nd | ||
| 15 | Airdrie and Shotts
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 4.19 | 2nd | ||
| 16 | Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 4.37 | 2nd | ||
| 17 | Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 4.50 | 2nd | ||
Conservative targets
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2011 | Swing to gain | Con place 2011 | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edinburgh Pentlands
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 2.93 | 2nd | ||
| 2 | Eastwood
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Scottish Labour Party" | |
Labour | 3.16 | 2nd | ||
| 3 | Dumfriesshire
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Scottish Labour Party" | |
Labour | 4.97 | 2nd | ||
Liberal Democrat targets
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2011 | Swing to gain | LD's place 2011 | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edinburgh Southern
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 2.45 | 3rd | ||
| 2 | Edinburgh Western
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 4.02 | 2nd | ||
| 3 | North East Fife
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 4.37 | 2nd | ||
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