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Revision as of 16:00, 4 July 2018

The World Football Elo Ratings is a ranking system for men's national association football teams that is published by the website eloratings.net. It is based on the Elo rating system but includes modifications to take various football-specific variables into account, like the margin of victory, importance of a match, and home field advantage. Ratings tend to converge on a team's true strength relative to its competitors after about 30 matches. Ratings for teams with fewer than 30 matches are considered provisional.

Other implementations of the Elo rating system are possible. A 2009 comparative study of eight methods found that the implementation of the Elo rating system described below had the highest predictive capability for football matches, while the men's FIFA ranking method in place until July 2018 performed poorly.

The FIFA World Rankings is the official national teams rating system used by the international governing body of football. The FIFA Women's World Rankings system has used a modified version of the Elo formula since 2003. Following the 2018 World Cup, the FIFA ranking will switch to an Elo-based ranking as well, starting from the current FIFA rating points.

The major difference between the World Football Elo Rating and the future men's FIFA rating system is that the latter will not consider goal differential and will count a penalty shoot-out as a win/loss rather than a draw; thus, a 7:0 blowout will be considered equal to a 7:6 penalty shoot-out win (neither method distinguishes a win in extra time from a win in regular time). The FIFA method will further be less sensitive to the difference in ratings and more sensitive to match status. Finally, World Football Elo Ratings considers all official international matches for which results are available, including those involving "unaffiliated" teams that are not a member of FIFA.

Top 80 ratings as of 3 July 2018
Elo Rank	1 Year Change	Team	Elo Rating	FIFA Rank*
1		Brazil	2156	2
2	4	France	2029	7
3	8	Belgium	2010	3
	1	Spain	2010	10
5	13	Uruguay	1986	14
6	4	Germany	1964	1
7	9	Croatia	1950	20
8	2	England	1944	12
9	4	Portugal	1940	4
10	3	Colombia	1939	16
11	6	Netherlands	1908	17
12	7	Sweden	1906	24
13	10	Argentina	1896	5
	20	Denmark	1896	12
15	7	Italy	1891	19
16	1	Peru	1890	11
17	3	Switzerland	1879	6
18	9	Chile	1869	9
19	7	Mexico	1829	15
20	3	Iran	1816	37
21	8	Poland	1783	8
22	3	Wales	1777	18
23	9	Serbia	1772	34
24	2	United States	1764	25
25	11	Senegal	1763	27
26	8	South Korea	1757	57
27		Slovakia	1752	28
28	2	Ukraine	1750	35
29	9	Ecuador	1747	60
30		Bosnia & Herzegovina	1745	40
31	8	Austria	1742	26
32	8	Venezuela	1739	33
33	9	Republic of Ireland	1729	31
34	3	Paraguay	1728	32
	12	Turkey	1728	38
36	8	Romania	1727	30
37	8	Costa Rica	1726	23
38	22	Morocco	1720	41
39	4	Australia	1713	36
	1	Czech Republic	1713	46
41	2	Russia	1710	70
42	1	Scotland	1709	42
43	23	Iceland	1708	22
44	9	Nigeria	1702	48
45	17	Japan	1699	61
46	1	Northern Ireland	1676	29
47	19	Tunisia	1662	21
48	7	Bolivia	1661	59
49	3	Greece	1646	44
50	3	Cameroon	1645	49
	17	Ghana	1645	47
52	17	Norway	1640	53
53	2	Slovenia	1626	56
54	1	Bulgaria	1615	49
55	13	Syria	1606	73
56	20	Finland	1605	63
57	8	Ivory Coast	1602	68
58	6	Uzbekistan	1599	95
59	1	Burkina Faso	1597	52
	3	Montenegro	1597	43
61	11	Panama	1596	55
62	1	Honduras	1590	62
63	2	DR Congo	1589	38
64	7	Saudi Arabia	1588	67
65	11	Hungary	1576	51
66	18	Egypt	1575	45
67	18	Jamaica	1574	54
68	4	South Africa	1565	74
69	10	Albania	1560	58
70	8	Iraq	1550	89
71	24	Oman	1539	84
72	9	Canada	1534	79
	1	China	1534	75
74	2	United Arab Emirates	1532	77
75	5	Israel	1527	93
76	11	Belarus	1522	78
77	2	Mali	1519	64
78	15	North Macedonia	1518	71
79	1	Guatemala	1511	146
80	25	Algeria	1508	66
*FIFA rankings per 7 June 2018
Complete rankings at eloratings.net

History and overview

The Elo system, developed by Hungarian-American mathematician Árpád Élő, is used by FIDE, the international chess federation, to rate chess players, and by the European Go Federation, to rate Go players. In 1997, Bob Runyan adapted the Elo rating system to international football and posted the results on the Internet. He was also the first maintainer of the World Football Elo Ratings web site, currently maintained by Kirill Bulygin.

The Elo system was adapted for football by adding a weighting for the kind of match, an adjustment for the home team advantage, and an adjustment for goal difference in the match result.

The factors taken into consideration when calculating a team's new rating are:

• The team's old rating
• The considered weight of the tournament
• The goal difference of the match
• The result of the match
• The expected result of the match

These ratings take into account all international "A" matches for which results could be found. Ratings tend to converge on a team's true strength relative to its competitors after about 30 matches. Ratings for teams with fewer than 30 matches should be considered provisional.

Calculation principles

The ratings are based on the following formulae:

${\displaystyle R_{n}=R_{o}+KG(W-W_{e})}$

or

${\displaystyle P=KG(W-W_{e})}$

Where;

${\displaystyle R_{n}}$	= The new team rating
${\displaystyle R_{o}}$	= The old team rating
${\displaystyle K}$	= Weight index regarding the tournament of the match
${\displaystyle G}$	= A number from the index of goal differences
${\displaystyle W}$	= The result of the match
${\displaystyle W_{e}}$	= The expected result
${\displaystyle P}$	= Points Change

"Points Change" is rounded to the nearest integer before updating the team rating.

Status of match

The status of the match is incorporated by the use of a weight constant. The constant reflects the importance of a match, which, in turn, is determined entirely by which tournament the match is in; the weight constant for each major tournament is:

The FIFA adaptation of the Elo rating will feature 8 weights, with the knockout stages in the World Cup weighing 12x more than some friendly matches.

Number of goals

The number of goals is taken into account by use of a goal difference index.

If the game is a draw or is won by one goal

${\displaystyle G=1}$

If the game is won by two goals

${\displaystyle G={\frac {3}{2}}}$

If the game is won by three or more goals

• Where N is the goal difference

${\displaystyle G={\frac {11+N}{8}}}$

Table of examples:

Result of match

W is the result of the game (1 for a win, 0.5 for a draw, and 0 for a loss). This also holds when a game is won or lost on extra time. If the match is decided on penalties, however, the result of the game is considered a draw (W = 0.5).

Expected result of match

W_e is the expected result (win expectancy with a draw counting as 0.5) from the following formula:

${\displaystyle W_{e}={\frac {1}{10^{-dr/400}+1}}}$

where dr equals the difference in ratings (add 100 points for the home team). So dr of 0 gives 0.5, of 120 gives 0.666 to the higher-ranked team and 0.334 to the lower, and of 800 gives 0.99 to the higher-ranked team and 0.01 to the lower.
The FIFA adaptation of the Elo rating will not incorporate a home team advantage and will have a larger divisor in the formula (600 vs 400), making the points exchange less sensitive to the rating difference of two teams.

Examples for clarification

The same example of a three-team friendly tournament on neutral territory is used as on the FIFA World Rankings page. Beforehand team A had a rating of 600 points, team B 500 points, and teams C 480 points.
The first table shows the points allocations based on three possible outcomes of the match between the strongest team A, and the somewhat weaker team B:

	Team A	Team B	Team A	Team B	Team A	Team B
Score	3 : 1		1 : 3		2 : 2
${\displaystyle K}$	20	20	20	20	20	20
${\displaystyle G}$	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1	1
${\displaystyle W}$	1	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
${\displaystyle W_{e}}$	0.679	0.321	0.679	0.321	0.679	0.321
Total (P)	+9.63	-9.63	-20.37	+20.37	-3.58	+3.58

When the difference in strength between the two teams is less, so also will be the difference in points allocation. The next table illustrates how the points would be divided following the same results as above, but with two roughly equally ranked teams, B and C, being involved:

	Team B	Team C	Team B	Team C	Team B	Team C
Score	3–1		1–3		2–2
${\displaystyle K}$	20	20	20	20	20	20
${\displaystyle G}$	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1	1
${\displaystyle W}$	1	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
${\displaystyle W_{e}}$	0.529	0.471	0.529	0.471	0.529	0.471
Total (P)	+14.13	-14.13	-15.87	+15.87	-0.58	+0.58

Team B drops more points by losing to Team C, which has shown about the same strength, than by losing to Team A, which has been considerably better than Team B.

List of number one teams

The following is the list of nations who reached a first rank in ratings since 1872.

Start Date Nation # of days 30 Nov 1872  England 1,190 4 Mar 1876  Scotland 5,873 2 Apr 1892  England 3,760 20 Jul 1902  Argentina 2,148 6 Jun 1908  England 2,190 5 Jun 1914  Denmark 5 10 Jun 1914  Denmark  England 361 6 Jun 1915  Denmark 490 8 Oct 1916  England 1,420 28 Aug 1920  Spain 1 29 Aug 1920  Uruguay 7 5 Sep 1920  Spain 13 18 Sep 1920  Uruguay 386 9 Oct 1921  Spain 959 25 May 1924  Uruguay 419 18 Jul 1925  Spain 273 17 Apr 1926  Scotland 186 20 Oct 1926  Argentina 4 24 Oct 1926  Uruguay 583 29 May 1928  Argentina 1 30 May 1928  Uruguay 3 2 Jun 1928  Argentina 1 3 Jun 1928  Uruguay 3 6 Jun 1928  Argentina 1 7 Jun 1928  Uruguay 374 16 Jun 1929  Argentina 1,806 27 May 1934  Austria 11 7 Jun 1934  Italy 1,277 5 Dec 1937  Argentina 182 5 Jun 1938  Italy 630 25 Feb 1940  Argentina 144 18 Jul 1940  Italy 136 1 Dec 1940  Argentina 56 26 Jan 1941  Italy 3 29 Jan 1941  Argentina 445 19 Apr 1942  Italy 36 25 May 1942  Argentina 307 28 Mar 1943  Argentina  Italy 7 4 Apr 1943  Argentina 98 11 Jul 1943  Argentina  Italy 545 6 Jan 1945  Argentina 36 11 Feb 1945  Italy 4 15 Feb 1945  Argentina 142 7 Jul 1945  Italy 127 11 Nov 1945  Argentina  Italy 35 16 Dec 1945  Argentina 4 20 Dec 1945  Italy 52

Start Date Nation # of days 10 Feb 1946  Argentina 455 11 May 1947  Argentina  Italy 182 9 Nov 1947  Argentina 335 9 Oct 1948  England 182 9 Apr 1949  Argentina 442 25 Jun 1950  England 4 29 Jun 1950  Argentina 814 20 Sep 1952  Hungary 218 26 Apr 1953  Argentina 21 17 May 1953  Hungary 1,417 3 Apr 1957  Argentina 3 6 Apr 1957  Hungary 67 12 Jun 1957  Argentina 95 15 Sep 1957  Hungary 8 23 Sep 1957  Argentina 13 6 Oct 1957  Hungary 249 12 Jun 1958  Hungary  Brazil 3 15 Jun 1958  Brazil 634 10 Mar 1960  Hungary 3 13 Mar 1960  Argentina 47 29 Apr 1960  Brazil 27 26 May 1960  Argentina 3 29 May 1960  Brazil 1,026 21 Mar 1963  Soviet Union 836 4 Jul 1965  Brazil 322 22 May 1966  Soviet Union 13 4 Jun 1966  Brazil 41 15 Jul 1966  Soviet Union 10 25 Jul 1966  West Germany 5 30 Jul 1966  England 1,408 7 Jun 1970  Brazil 742 18 Jun 1972  Brazil  West Germany 10 28 Jun 1972  West Germany 11 9 Jul 1972  Brazil 129 15 Nov 1972  West Germany 91 14 Feb 1973  Brazil 484 13 Jun 1974  West Germany 9 22 Jun 1974  Brazil 11 3 Jul 1974  West Germany 1,429 1 Jun 1978  Netherlands 6 7 Jun 1978  West Germany 3 10 Jun 1978  Netherlands 1 11 Jun 1978  West Germany 3 14 Jun 1978  Brazil 504 31 Oct 1979  West Germany 434 7 Jan 1981  Brazil 3 10 Jan 1981  West Germany 71 22 Mar 1981  Brazil 10

Start Date Nation # of days 1 Apr 1981  West Germany 44 15 May 1981  Brazil 152 14 Oct 1981  West Germany 243 14 Jun 1982  Brazil 486 13 Oct 1983  Soviet Union 335 12 Sep 1984  France 232 2 May 1985  West Germany 41 12 Jun 1985  France 91 11 Sep 1985  Soviet Union 133 22 Jan 1986  France 154 25 Jun 1986  Brazil 3 28 Jun 1986  France 1 29 Jun 1986  Argentina 346 10 Jun 1987  Brazil 23 3 Jul 1987  England 57 29 Aug 1987  Soviet Union 74 11 Nov 1987  England 141 31 Mar 1988  England  Soviet Union 2 2 Apr 1988  England 71 12 Jun 1988  Soviet Union 5 17 Jun 1988  West Germany 1 18 Jun 1988  Soviet Union 7 25 Jun 1988  Netherlands 715 10 Jun 1990  Netherlands  West Germany 2 12 Jun 1990  West Germany 7 19 Jun 1990  Brazil 5 24 Jun 1990  West Germany 725 18 Jun 1992  Netherlands 3 21 Jun 1992  Germany 5 26 Jun 1992  Netherlands 75 9 Sep 1992  Germany 35 14 Oct 1992  Brazil 2 16 Oct 1992  Argentina 246 19 Jun 1993  Germany 370 24 Jun 1994  Brazil 3 27 Jun 1994  Germany 12 9 Jul 1994  Brazil 708 16 Jun 1996  Germany 3 19 Jun 1996  Germany  Brazil 4 23 Jun 1996  Germany 352 10 Jun 1997  Brazil 380 25 Jun 1998  Germany 2 27 Jun 1998  Brazil 2 29 Jun 1998  Germany 4 3 Jul 1998  Brazil 9 12 Jul 1998  France 331 8 Jun 1999  Brazil 374 16 Jun 2000  France 5

Start Date Nation # of days 21 Jun 2000  Brazil 4 25 Jun 2000  France 711 6 Jun 2002  Argentina 1 7 Jun 2002  Italy 1 8 Jun 2002  France 3 11 Jun 2002  Netherlands 10 21 Jun 2002  Brazil 236 12 Feb 2003  Netherlands 210 10 Sep 2003  France 291 27 Jun 2004  Czech Republic 4 1 Jul 2004  France 65 4 Sep 2004  Argentina 273 4 Jun 2005  Czech Republic 4 8 Jun 2005  Argentina 21 29 Jun 2005  Brazil 102 9 Oct 2005  Netherlands 3 12 Oct 2005  Brazil 265 4 Jul 2006  Italy 43 16 Aug 2006  France 52 7 Oct 2006  Brazil 122 6 Feb 2007  France 1 7 Feb 2007  Brazil 119 6 Jun 2007  Brazil  France 21 27 Jun 2007  France 14 11 Jul 2007  Argentina 4 15 Jul 2007  Brazil 334 13 Jun 2008  Netherlands 8 21 Jun 2008  Spain 368 24 Jun 2009  Brazil 339 29 May 2010  Brazil  Spain 4 2 Jun 2010  Brazil 1 3 Jun 2010  Spain 4 7 Jun 2010  Spain  Brazil 1 8 Jun 2010  Spain 7 15 Jun 2010  Spain  Brazil 1 16 Jun 2010  Brazil 16 2 Jul 2010  Netherlands 5 7 Jul 2010  Spain 1,089 30 Jun 2013  Brazil 45 14 Aug 2013  Spain 59 12 Oct 2013  Brazil 260 29 Jun 2014  Netherlands 5 4 Jul 2014  Germany 695 29 May 2016  Argentina 165 10 Nov 2016  Brazil 329 5 Oct 2017  Germany 36 10 Nov 2017  Brazil 2,619

1. ^ Number one position reached at / after first match

All-time highest ratings

The following is a list of national football teams ranked by their highest Elo score ever reached. The team in each confederation that has achieved the highest rank is shown in color.

Rank Nation High (rank) High date High rank (first,last year) Low (rank) Low date 1  Hungary 2230 (1) 1954-06-30 1 (1952,1960) 1528 (74) 2003-11-19 2  Germany 2223 (1) 2014-07-13 1 (1966,2017) 1639 (19) 1920-09-26 3  England 2216 (1) 1912-09-09 1 (1872,1988) 1790 (13) 1928-03-31 4  Brazil 2194 (1) 1962-06-17 1 (1958,2018) 1813 (13) 1922-09-24 5  Spain 2165 (1) 2013-06-23 1 (1920,2013) 1800 (19) 1969-06-25 6  Argentina 2159 (1) 1957-04-03 1 (1929,2016) 1751 (26) 1990-06-08 7  Netherlands 2154 (2) 2014-07-12 1 (1978,2014) 1550 (49) 1954-10-24 8  France 2137 (1) 2001-05-30 1 (1984,2007) 1507 (40) 1930-05-18 9  Italy 2132 (1) 1939-06-11 1 (1952,2006) 1605 (21) 1920-08-29 10  Uruguay 2108 (1) 1928-06-13 1 (1920,1929) 1635 (44) 1979-09-05 11  Scotland 2104 (1) 1888-03-10 1 (1876,1926) 1600 (63) 2005-03-26 12  Soviet Union 1449 (1) 1966-07-23 1 (1963,1988) 1449 (22) 1913-09-14 13  Poland 2083 (2) 1974-09-01 2 (1974,1975) 1525 (55) 1956-08-26 14  Denmark 2077 (1) 1916-06-25 1 (1914,1916) 1536 (59) 1967-05-24 15  Austria 2068 (1) 1934-05-31 1 (1934) 1550 (73) 2011-09-02 16  Chile 2041 (3) 2016-06-26 2 (2016) 1384 (24) 1916-07-06 17  Czech Republic 2038 (1) 2004-06-27 1 (2004,2005) 1670 (46) 2017-09-04 18  Colombia 2035 (5) 2014-06-28 3 (2016) 1304 (94) 1957-03-13 19  Portugal 2022 (3) 1966-07-28 2 (2006) 1619 (41) 1962-11-07 20  Sweden 2012 (3) 1949-06-02 2 (1950) 1577 (28) 1922-05-28 21  Belgium 2010 (3) 2018-07-02 3 (2018) 1497 (44) 1936-03-29 22  Yugoslavia 1515 (3) 1962-06-10 2 (1962) 1515 (39) 1927-04-10 23  Croatia 2005 (5) 1998-07-11 5 (1998) 1781 (21) 2015-09-06 24  East Germany 1993 (5) 1974-06-22 4 (1974,1977) 1419 (74) 1954-10-24 25  Mexico 1986 (6) 2016-06-09 4 (2016) 1495 (41) 1930-07-19 26  Paraguay 1954 (5) 1954-02-21 5 (1954) 1617 (42) 1962-08-12 27  Romania 1946 (6) 1990-06-09 5 (1990) 1503 (43) 1935-09-01 28  Greece 1931 (7) 2004-08-18 7 (2004) 1277 (65) 1936-06-19 29   Switzerland 1930 (9) 2018-06-22 9 (1930) 1490 (23) 1920-02-29 30  Norway 1929 (8) 2000-06-13 8 (2000) 1364 (26) 1916-07-02 31  Rep. of Ireland 1920 (8) 1994-06-18 8 (1991,2002) 1538 (62) 1971-10-10 32  Peru 1916 (10) 2018-06-13 10 (2018) 1486 (45) 1935-01-20 33  Ecuador 1915 (12) 2015-11-17 12 (2013) 1184 (92) 1949-04-25 34  Wales 1905 (13) 1981-05-20 3 (1876,1902) 1403 (3) 1900-02-03 35  Turkey 1899 (12) 2003-06-19 10 (2002,2003) 1381 (55) 1937-08-01

Rank Nation High (rank) High date High rank (first,last year) Low (rank) Low date 36  Bulgaria 1896 (9) 1969-06-15 7 (1969) 1320 (56) 1931-05-10  Japan 1896 (10) 2001-08-15 8 (2001) 1214 (59) 1927-08-27 38  United States 1891 (11) 2005-09-03 9 (2009) 1417 (88) 1975-08-24  Egypt 1891 (12) 1965-03-25 10 (1965) 1526 (51) 1953-01-16 40  Australia 1880 (12) 1997-12-14 11 (2001) 1472 (76) 1965-11-29 41  Algeria 1875 (12) 1963-01-04 10 (1959,1960) 1392 (108) 2007-09-09 42  Ghana 1872 (10) 1966-10-30 10 (1966,1967) 1427 (100) 2004-06-14 43  Costa Rica 1868 (15) 2014-11-13 9 (1932,1934) 1495 (72) 1983-03-22  Ivory Coast 1868 (15) 2013-01-26 15 (2013) 1497 (73) 1983-01-09 45  Cameroon 1852 (14) 2003-06-26 14 (2003) 1453 (81) 1964-01-31 46  Northern Ireland 1850 (17) 1986-04-23 14 (1986) 1397 (108) 2013-10-11 47  Ukraine 1846 (17) 2013-11-15 15 (2010) 1536 (69) 1995-03-29 48  North Korea 1844 (15) 1966-07-19 10 (1969,1970) 1415 (104) 2004-03-31  South Korea 1844 (17) 2002-06-22 15 (1948,1953) 1446 (79) 1967-08-07 50  Iceland 1841 (19) 2017-10-09 18 (2017) 1256 (123) 1973-08-29 51  Iran 1836 (18) 2005-04-12 18 (2005) 1461 (75) 1959-12-11 52  Nigeria 1828 (18) 2004-06-05 16 (2004) 1500 (72) 1964-12-27 53  Morocco 1823 (21) 1976-06-11 18 (1999) 1512 (86) 2013-03-24 54 South Africa 1817 (10) 1906-07-09 8 (1907,1908) 1452 (95) 2006-09-02 55  Senegal 1812 (21) 2002-06-16 21 (2002,2018) 1392 (105) 1994-10-28 56  Bosnia Herzegovina 1807 (21) 2013-06-07 20 (2013) 1499 (75) 2002-09-07 57  Venezuela 1806 (19) 2011-07-20 19 (2011) 1212 (76) 1938-08-19 58  Guinea 1799 (24) 1977-06-05 20 (1977) 1306 (128) 1996-06-01 59  Bolivia 1793 (21) 1997-06-25 21 (1997) 1244 (61) 1930-07-20 60  Honduras 1790 (25) 2001-09-05 19 (2001 1332 (108) 1965-03-17 61  DR Congo 1789 (19) 1969-12-14 19 (1969) 1392 (111) 2010-09-05 62  Slovakia 1776 (28) 2017-09-01 17 (1939,1941) 1578 (66) 2011-10-07 63  Uzbekistan 1772 (27) 1994-10-16 23 (1994) 1435 (91) 2001-02-12 64  Israel 1771 (25) 1976-04-11 23 (1976) 1426 (75) 1954-05-01 65  Tunisia 1761 (32) 2006-01-26 24 (1978) 1437 (83) 1987-09-23 66  Slovenia 1758 (28) 2001-11-14 27 (2001) 1516 (70) 1998-08-19 67  China 1755 (28) 2001-10-13 21 (1934) 1444 (90) 1992-08-29  Panama 1755 (29) 2013-07-24 28 (2013) 1152 (141) 1971-04-22 69  Iraq 1753 (24) 1982-12-03 24 (1982) 1452 (97) 2016-10-06 70  Finland 1747 (29) 2002-03-27 14 (1912) 1245 (116) 1961-06-16

1. at present as Russia
2. at present as Serbia
3. Switzerland reached a low of 1485 after its second match in March 1908.
4. ^ The combined Ireland national football team was in 4th place from its first match in 1882 to 1902, in a period that only 4 teams were in the rankings. It reached a low ratings of 1237 on 29 March 1890.
5. Wales was in 3 place from its first match in 1876 to 1902, in a period that only 3 to 4 teams were in the rankings
6. On 1 January 2006, Football Federation Australia moved from the OFC to the AFC
7. Algeria had only played 4 matches to reach their highest ranking and 8 matches to reach their highest ratings.
8. South Africa had only played 1 match when they reached their highest ratings and ranking between 1906 and 1908
9. Slovakia's highest rank of 17 was after their first match in August 1939
10. Finland reached their highest ranking after their 4th match, after beating Italy and Russia in the 1912 Olympic Games

Average ratings

Time averaged Elo or Elo-like scores are routinely used to compare chess player strengths. The first table is a list of the national teams with the highest average Elo score over approximately the last half century, from 1 January 1970 to 1 January 2018. Before this time intercontinental play was fairly limited and many nations in Africa, North America, and Asia had played too few games yet to create a representative Elo score.

Highest average ratings since 1970

Rank Country Avg Elo 1  Brazil 2046.0 2  Germany 2018.8 3  Netherlands 1960.0 4  England 1957.6 5  Italy 1955.7 6  Spain 1950.4 7  Argentina 1940.4 8  France 1923.9 9  Russia 1877.7 10  Czechia 1862.7 11  Portugal 1859.8 12  Serbia 1845.2 13  Sweden 1830.6

Rank Country Avg Elo 14  Mexico 1817.4 15  Romania 1817.2 16  Uruguay 1807.5 17  Belgium 1807.0 18  Poland 1804.5 19  Denmark 1800.9 20  Scotland 1771.2 21  Chile 1762.2 22  Ireland 1760.1 23  Paraguay 1752.6 24  Bulgaria 1737.0 25   Switzerland 1733.8 26  Austria 1727.0

Rank Country Avg Elo 27  Colombia 1723.5 28  Hungary 1720.7 29  Australia 1712.9 30  Wales 1694.6 31  Greece 1693.7 32  South Korea 1690.0 33  Iran 1684.7 34  Turkey 1680.2 35  Peru 1676.8 36  Nigeria 1674.4 37  Egypt 1671.1 38  Norway 1669.2 39  Israel 1667.0

Rank Country Avg Elo 40  United States 1649.0 41  Cameroon 1647.7 42  Morocco 1643.4 43  Northern Ireland 1642.3 44  Ivory Coast 1638.5 45  Costa Rica 1636.1 46  Ghana 1626.0 47  Ecuador 1623.5 48  Japan 1614.3 49  Tunisia 1610.0 50  Iraq 1603.6 51  China 1600.9 52  Honduras 1584.6

1. Representing West Germany from 1949 to 1990
2. Combined record of the USSR (1970-1992), the CIS (1992), and Russia national football teams (1992-present)
3. Combined record of the Czechoslovakian (1970-1992) and Czech national football teams (1993-present)
4. Combined record of Yugoslavia (1970-1992), Serbia and Montenegro (1994-2006) and Serbia national football teams (2006-present)

Averages by decade

The table below shows the teams with the best average Elo score each decade since the 1920s (Jan 1 XXX0 - Dec 31 XXX9).

1920s  Uruguay 2011  Spain 1977  Argentina 1962  Scotland 1959  England 1904  Czechoslovakia 1892  Brazil 1890  Hungary 1880  Austria 1865  Denmark 1805  Netherlands 1797  Belgium 1768  Sweden 1758  Italy 1744  Paraguay 1735

1930s  Argentina 2040  Italy 2030  England 1964  Uruguay 1959  Scotland 1949  Austria 1944  Spain 1939  Brazil 1902  Czechoslovakia 1874  Hungary 1867  Costa Rica 1835  Germany 1819  Wales 1763  Paraguay 1742  United States 1735

1940s  Argentina 2083  Italy 2061  England 1976  Scotland 1945  Brazil 1928  Spain 1926  Germany 1891  Uruguay 1885  Hungary 1881  Austria 1871  Wales 1844  Czechoslovakia 1834  Mexico 1803  Sweden 1797   Switzerland 1759

1950s  Hungary 2060  Argentina 2060  Brazil 2027  England 1982  West Germany 1924  Yugoslavia 1903  Uruguay 1881  Austria 1880  Italy 1871  Scotland 1869  Spain 1859  Sweden 1848  Paraguay 1822  France 1808  Czechoslovakia 1772

1960s  Brazil 2007  Soviet Union 1988  England 1975  Hungary 1971  Argentina 1955  West Germany 1934  Czechoslovakia 1911  Italy 1899  Spain 1890  Uruguay 1879  Yugoslavia 1867  Scotland 1853  Sweden 1835  Mexico 1819  Austria 1783

1970s  Brazil 2101  West Germany 2084  England 1993  Italy 1975  Netherlands 1929  Poland 1922  Soviet Union 1914  East Germany 1914  Argentina 1895  Spain 1895  Czechoslovakia 1888  Hungary 1878  Yugoslavia 1874  Scotland 1856  Portugal 1849  Belgium 1836  Romania 1822  Austria 1815  Sweden 1814  France 1801

1980s  Brazil 2009  West Germany 2005  Soviet Union 1986  England 1967  Italy 1931  Argentina 1931  France 1928  Netherlands 1925  Spain 1888  Poland 1871  Belgium 1864  Czechoslovakia 1862  East Germany 1861  Yugoslavia 1860  Scotland 1824  Romania 1822  Denmark 1822  Austria 1817  Wales 1815  Sweden 1815

1990s  Brazil 2032  Germany 2026  Italy 1990  France 1969  Netherlands 1957  Spain 1941  FR Yugoslavia 1939  England 1937  Denmark 1911  Argentina 1896  Croatia 1890  Czechia 1881  Russia 1873  Sweden 1870  Romania 1858  Mexico 1853  Portugal 1843  Republic of Ireland 1819  Colombia 1813  Belgium 1808

2000s  Brazil 2021  France 2013  Netherlands 1999  Argentina 1988  Spain 1986  Italy 1971  England 1947  Germany 1920  Portugal 1917  Czechia 1908  Denmark 1870  Croatia 1868  Mexico 1845  Romania 1835  Sweden 1834  Republic of Ireland 1818  Turkey 1817  United States 1815  Uruguay 1804  Russia 1801

2010s  Brazil 2071  Germany 2069  Spain 2063  Argentina 2005  Netherlands 1999  England 1940  Chile 1918  Portugal 1912  France 1905  Uruguay 1901  Italy 1900  Colombia 1892  Mexico 1876  Croatia 1859  Sweden 1817  Ecuador 1809   Switzerland 1807  Belgium 1798  Russia 1797  Ukraine 1786

1. Includes the record of the Great Britain Olympic football team in the 1908, 1912 and 1920 Olympics
2. In the 1940s, most national teams did not play games until after the end of World War II, making comparison of countries for this decade weak. For example, Mexico did not play any matches between Feb 1938 and July 1947, so that the average over the decade mostly reflects the single Elo rating achieved in February 1938
3. Combined record of Yugoslavia (1990-1992) and FR of Yugoslavia (1994-1999)
4. Combined record of Czechoslovakia (1990-1992) and Czech national football teams (1993-1999)
5. Combined record of the USSR (1990-1992), the CIS (1992), and Russia national football teams (1992-1999)
6. up to 1 January 2018

Biggest upsets

This is a list of matches with the biggest point exchange. Since the importance of the match, the goal differential and the perceived home team advantage are factored in the exchange, these are not necessarily the most surprising wins as expressed by the difference in Elo rating.
The nations' points before the matches are given.

Rank	Point exchange	Nation 1	Elo 1	Nation 2	Elo 2	Score	Date	Occasion	Location
1	98	Sweden	1676	Belgium	1845	8–1	1924-05-29	Olympic Games	Paris
2	92	Italy	1824	Spain	1991	7–1	1928-06-04	Olympic Games	Amsterdam
		Turkey	1397	China *	1655	4–0	1948-08-02	Olympic Games	Walthamstow
4	87	Norway	1478	Great Britain	2041	3–1	1920-08-28	Olympic Games	Antwerp
5	84	Egypt *	1677	Hungary	1919	3–0	1924-05-29	Olympic Games	Paris
		Czechoslovakia	1855	Argentina	2003	6–1	1958-06-15	World Cup	Helsingborg
7	83	Fiji	1171	New Zealand	1523	4–0	1980-02-23	OFC Nations Cup	Nouméa
8	82	Ghana	1606	Czech Republic	2005	2–0	2006-06-17	World Cup	Cologne
9	81	Brazil	2120	Germany	2122	1–7	2014-07-08	World Cup	Belo Horizonte
10	80	Germany	1642	Russia *	1567	16–0	1912-07-01	Olympic Games	Solna
		Turkey	1604	South Korea *	1668	7–0	1954-06-20	World Cup	Geneva
		Trinidad and Tobago	1481	Mexico	1783	4–0	1973-12-14	CONCACAF Championship	Port-au-Prince
		South Korea	1677	Germany	2044	2–0	2018-06-28	World Cup	Kazan
14	78	Paraguay	1685	Uruguay	2054	3–0	1929-11-01	Copa América	Buenos Aires
		Chile	1587	Uruguay	1957	3–0	1937-01-10	Copa América	Buenos Aires
16	77	Uruguay	1813	Brazil	2162	3–0	1959-12-12	Copa América	Guayaquil
		Croatia	1912	Germany	2090	3–0	1998-07-04	World Cup	Lyon
18	76	Germany	1906	Norway	1714	0–2	1936-08-07	Olympic Games	Berlin
		Costa Rica	1717	Guatemala	1491	1–4	1946-03-10	CCCF Championship	San José
		United States	1888	Mexico	1788	0–5	2009-07-26	CONCACAF Gold Cup	East Rutherford
21	75	Denmark	1759	Italy	2044	5–3	1948-08-05	Olympic Games	London
		Venezuela	1336	Bolivia	1646	3–0	1967-01-28	Copa América	Montevideo
		Netherlands	1986	Spain	2109	5–1	2014-06-13	World Cup	Salvador
24	74	Chile	1800	Brazil	2032	4–0	1987-07-03	Copa América	Córdoba
25	73	Montserrat	511	British Virgin Islands	758	7–0	2012-09-09	Caribbean Cup qualifier	Fort-de-France

*The initial ratings may be partially responsible for the high point exchange. The national teams of China, Egypt, Russia, and South Korea had played only 18, 3, 2, and 18 international matches before their respective upsets. China had only yet played against East Asian teams.

1. In those terms, most surprising may have been the 2:1 win of Luxembourg (Elo rating 1036) over Switzerland (ER 1794) in a World Cup qualification match in September 2008 (a 758 point difference). In another World Cup qualifier in October 2004 Liechtenstein (ER 1049) held the 853 points higher rated Portuguese team (ER 1902) to a 2:2 draw.

See also

• Statistical association football predictions

External links

• World Football Elo ratings
• How the rankings are calculated
• FootballDatabase's World Club Ratings (using Elo Formula)

References

1. "The World Football Elo Rating System". Eloratings.net. Retrieved 26 February 2012.
2. J. Lasek, Z. Szlávik and S. Bhulai (2013), The predictive power of ranking systems in association football, Int. J. Applied Pattern Recognition1: 27-46.
3. FIFA Council, 2026 FIFA World Cup™: FIFA Council designates bids for final voting by the FIFA Congress, 10 Jun 2018
4. ^ FIFA council, Revision of the FIFA / Coca-Cola World Ranking
5. "World Football Elo Ratings". Elo ratings. Retrieved 30 June 2018.
6. "FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking" (Press release). FIFA. 7 June 2018. Retrieved 17 May 2018.
7. Graph of rankings at eloratings.net. Yearly graphs, like this one for 2018, give enough resolution. For individual dates, the Elo ratings table is also a good source.
8. World Football Elo Ratings; under the columns tab choose "Highest Rank / Rating" as well as "Lowest Rank / Rating"
9. Arpad E. Elo, The Rating of Chessplayers, Past and Present, Arco, 1978. ISBN 0-668-04721-6.
10. Arpad Elo, Chess Life, 1962.
11. About the Chessmetrics Rating System, by Jeff Sonas
12. Upsets at eloratings.net (per June 2018 this page is under reconstruction)

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• Use dmy dates from February 2012
• Association football rankings
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