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The 2010 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 2, 2010, with early voting taking place in some states in the weeks preceding that date. Voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and four of the five inhabited U.S. territories were also elected. These midterm elections took place nearly halfway through the first term of Democratic President Barack Obama. The winners served in the 112th United States Congress, with seats apportioned among the states based on the 2000 United States census. On Election Day, Democrats had held a House majority since January 2007 as a result of the 2006 elections.
Predictions on overall outcome
These were predictions of the outcome of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections.
- RealClearPolitics.
- As of November 2, 2010, RCP projected the Republicans would take 224 seats, the Democrats would take 167, and 44 races were toss-ups.
- Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (New York Times)
- As of November 2, 2010, Nate Silver's prediction model projected the Republicans would win (on average) 232.2 seats, and the Democrats would win 202.8.
- Patrick Ishmael, Hot Air.com
- Ishmael predicted on October 31, 2010, that Republicans would win a net of 63 seats, +/- 3 seats. Rasmussen Reports cited Ishmael's calls in its election preview. The week before, Ishmael predicted a net Republican pickup of 62–65 seats.
- Crystal Ball
- As of November 1, 2010, Larry Sabato predicted, "If the election were held today: + 55 Republican House seats".
- Charlie Cook
- On October 26, 2010, The Cook Political Report raised its House forecast to "a Democratic net loss of 48 to 60 seats, with higher losses possible."
- In a February 2010 interview with National Journal, he said that "it's very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don't lose the House. It's very hard."
- Rasmussen Reports
- On November 1, 2010, Scott Rasmussen predicted the Democrats "will likely lose 55 or more seats in the House."
- Rothenberg Political Report.
- On October 28, 2010, Rothenberg Political Report predicted "Likely Republican gain of 55–65 seats, with gains at or above 70 seats possible."
- In April 2010, Stuart Rothenberg wrote on his blog that "…the atmospherics remain strongly behind the GOP, and major Republican House gains are extremely likely" and that "it's clear that the battleground is almost entirely on Democratic soil. Obviously, control of the House is at risk."
- Congressional Quarterly.
- In October 2010, Congressional Quarterly projected the Democrats would take 195 seats, the Republicans 199, and they considered 41 races too close to call.
- In July 2010, Congressional Quarterly projected the Democrats would take 205 seats, the Republicans 190, and they considered 40 races too close to call.
Election ratings
Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.
Most election ratings use:
- Tossup: no advantage
- Tilt (sometimes used): slight advantage
- Lean: clear advantage
- Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
- Safe: outcome is nearly certain
The following table contains the final ratings of the competitiveness of selected races according to noted political analysts. Races which were considered safe for the incumbent's party are not included. Incumbents who did not run for re-election have parentheses around their name.
| District | Incumbent | Cook | Rothenberg | CQ Politics | Sabato's Crystal Ball |
RealClear | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-2 | Bright (D) | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Roby (R) |
| AL-5 | (Griffith) (R) | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Brooks (R) |
| AZ-1 | Kirkpatrick (D) | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Gosar (R) |
| AZ-3 | (Shadegg) (R) | Lean R | Safe R | Safe R | Lean R | Lean R | Quayle (R) |
| AZ-5 | Mitchell (D) | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Schweikert (R) |
| AZ-7 | Grijalva (D) | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Grijalva (D) |
| AZ-8 | Giffords (D) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean R | Giffords (D) |
| AR-1 | (Berry) (D) | Lean R | Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Crawford (R) |
| AR-2 | (Snyder) (D) | Likely R | Favored R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Griffin (R) |
| CA-3 | Lungren (R) | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lungren (R) |
| CA-11 | McNerney (D) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | McNerney (D) |
| CA-18 | Cardoza (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Lean D | Cardoza (D) |
| CA-20 | Costa (D) | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean R | Costa (D) |
| CA-47 | Sanchez (D) | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Sanchez (D) |
| CO-3 | Salazar (D) | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Tipton (R) |
| CO-4 | Markey (D) | Lean R | Favored R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Gardner (R) |
| CO-7 | Perlmutter (D) | Lean D | Favored D | Lean D | Likely D | Tossup | Perlmutter (D) |
| CT-4 | Himes (D) | Lean D | Favored D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Himes (D) |
| CT-5 | C. Murphy (D) | Lean D | Favored D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | C. Murphy (D) |
| DE-AL | (Castle) (R) | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Carney (D) |
| FL-2 | Boyd (D) | Lean R | Favored R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Southerland (R) |
| FL-8 | Grayson (D) | Likely R | Favored R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Webster (R) |
| FL-12 | (Putnam) (R) | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Ross (R) |
| FL-22 | Klein (D) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean R | Lean R | West (R) |
| FL-24 | Kosmas (D) | Lean R | Favored R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Adams (R) |
| FL-25 | (M. Diaz-Balart) (R) | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Rivera (R) |
| GA-2 | S. Bishop (D) | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | S. Bishop (D) |
| GA-8 | Marshall (D) | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Scott (R) |
| HI-1 | Djou (R) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Hanabusa (D) |
| ID-1 | Minnick (D) | Tossup | Tilt D | Lean D | Lean R | Tossup | Labrador (R) |
| IL-8 | Bean (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Lean D | Walsh (R) |
| IL-10 | (Kirk) (R) | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Dold (R) |
| IL-11 | Halvorson (D) | Lean R | Favored R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Kinzinger (R) |
| IL-14 | Foster (D) | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Hultgren (R) |
| IL-17 | Hare (D) | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Schilling (R) |
| IN-2 | Donnelly (D) | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Donnelly (D) |
| IN-8 | (Ellsworth) (D) | Likely R | Favored R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Bucshon (R) |
| IN-9 | Hill (D) | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Young (R) |
| IA-1 | Braley (D) | Lean D | Favored D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Braley (D) |
| IA-2 | Loebsack (D) | Lean D | Favored D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Loebsack (D) |
| IA-3 | Boswell (D) | Lean D | Favored D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Boswell (D) |
| KS-3 | (Moore) (D) | Likely R | Favored R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Yoder (R) |
| KY-3 | Yarmuth (D) | Likely D | Favored D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Yarmuth (D) |
| KY-6 | Chandler (D) | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Chandler (D) |
| LA-2 | Cao (R) | Lean D | Favored D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Richmond (D) |
| LA-3 | (Melancon) (D) | Likely R | Favored R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Landry (R) |
| ME-1 | Pingree (D) | Tossup | Favored D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Pingree (D) |
| ME-2 | Michaud (D) | Lean D | Favored D | Likely D | Safe D | Tossup | Michaud (D) |
| MD-1 | Kratovil (D) | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Harris (R) |
| MA-4 | Frank (D) | Lean D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Frank (D) |
| MA-5 | Tsongas (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Tsongas (D) |
| MA-10 | (Delahunt) (D) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Keating (D) |
| MI-1 | (Stupak) (D) | Lean R | Tossup/Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Benishek (R) |
| MI-7 | Schauer (D) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Walberg (R) |
| MI-9 | Peters (D) | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Peters (D) |
| MN-1 | Walz (D) | Lean D | Favored D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Walz (D) |
| MN-6 | Bachmann (R) | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Bachmann (R) |
| MN-8 | Oberstar (D) | Tossup | Favored D | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Cravaack (R) |
| MS-1 | Childers (D) | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Nunnelee (R) |
| MS-4 | Taylor (D) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Palazzo (R) |
| MO-3 | Carnahan (D) | Lean D | Favored D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Carnahan (D) |
| MO-4 | Skelton (D) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Hartzler (R) |
| NE-2 | Terry (R) | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Terry (R) |
| NV-3 | Titus (D) | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Heck (R) |
| NH-1 | Shea-Porter (D) | Lean R | Favored R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Guinta (R) |
| NH-2 | (Hodes) (D) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Bass (R) |
| NJ-3 | Adler (D) | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean D | Lean R | Lean R | Runyan (R) |
| NJ-12 | Holt (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Lean D | Holt (D) |
| NM-1 | Heinrich (D) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Heinrich (D) |
| NM-2 | Teague (D) | Lean R | Lean R | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Pearce (R) |
| NY-1 | T. Bishop (D) | Tossup | Tilt D | Tossup | Likely D | Tossup | T. Bishop (D) |
| NY-4 | McCarthy (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | McCarthy (D) |
| NY-13 | McMahon (D) | Lean D | Favored D | Lean D | Likely D | Tossup | Grimm (R) |
| NY-19 | Hall (D) | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Hayworth (R) |
| NY-20 | S. Murphy (D) | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Gibson (R) |
| NY-22 | Hinchey (D) | Lean D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Hinchey (D) |
| NY-23 | Owens (D) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Owens (D) |
| NY-24 | Arcuri (D) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Hanna (R) |
| NY-25 | Maffei (D) | Lean D | Favored D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Buerkle (R) |
| NY-29 | Massa (D) | Likely R | Favored R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Reed (R) |
| NC-2 | Etheridge (D) | Lean D | Tilt D | Likely D | Likely D | Tossup | Ellmers (R) |
| NC-7 | McIntyre (D) | Tossup | Tilt D | Lean D | Likely D | Tossup | McIntyre (D) |
| NC-8 | Kissell (D) | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Kissell (D) |
| NC-11 | Shuler (D) | Lean D | Favored D | Likely D | Likely D | Tossup | Shuler (D) |
| ND-AL | Pomeroy (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Berg (R) |
| OH-1 | Driehaus (D) | Lean R | Favored R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Chabot (R) |
| OH-6 | Wilson (D) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Johnson (R) |
| OH-12 | Tiberi (R) | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Tiberi (R) |
| OH-13 | Sutton (D) | Likely D | Favored D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Sutton (D) |
| OH-15 | Kilroy (D) | Lean R | Favored R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Stivers (R) |
| OH-16 | Boccieri (D) | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Renacci (R) |
| OH-18 | Space (D) | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Gibbs (R) |
| OR-1 | Wu (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Wu (D) |
| OR-5 | Schrader (D) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Schrader (D) |
| PA-3 | Dahlkemper (D) | Lean R | Favored R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Kelly (R) |
| PA-4 | Altmire (D) | Lean D | Favored D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Altmire (D) |
| PA-6 | Gerlach (R) | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Lean R | Gerlach (R) |
| PA-7 | (Sestak) (D) | Lean R | Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Meehan (R) |
| PA-8 | P. Murphy (D) | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Fitzpatrick (R) |
| PA-10 | Carney (D) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Marino (R) |
| PA-11 | Kanjorski (D) | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Tossup | Barletta (R) |
| PA-12 | Critz (D) | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Critz (D) |
| PA-15 | Dent (R) | Likely R | Favored R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Dent (R) |
| PA-17 | Holden (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Holden (D) |
| RI-1 | (Kennedy) (D) | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Cicilline (D) |
| SC-5 | Spratt (D) | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Mulvaney (R) |
| SD-AL | Herseth Sandlin (D) | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Noem (R) |
| TN-4 | Davis (D) | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | DesJarlais (R) |
| TN-6 | (Gordon) (D) | Likely R | Favored R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Black (R) |
| TN-8 | (Tanner) (D) | Likely R | Favored R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Fincher (R) |
| TX-17 | Edwards (D) | Lean R | Favored R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Flores (R) |
| TX-23 | Rodriguez (D) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Canseco (R) |
| TX-27 | Ortiz (D) | Lean D | Favored D | Likely D | Safe D | Tossup | Farenthold (R) |
| VA-2 | Nye (D) | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Rigell (R) |
| VA-5 | Perriello (D) | Lean R | Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Hurt (R) |
| VA-9 | Boucher (D) | Tossup | Tilt D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Griffith (R) |
| VA-11 | Connolly (D) | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Connolly (D) |
| WA-2 | Larsen (D) | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Larsen (D) |
| WA-3 | (Baird) (D) | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Tossup | Herrera (R) |
| WA-8 | Reichert (R) | Likely R | Favored R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Reichert (R) |
| WV-1 | (Mollohan) (D) | Tossup | Pure tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | McKinley (R) |
| WV-3 | Rahall (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Rahall (D) |
| WI-3 | Kind (D) | Lean D | Favored D | Lean D | Likely D | Tossup | Kind (D) |
| WI-7 | (Obey) (D) | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Duffy (R) |
| WI-8 | Kagen (D) | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Ribble (R) |
| District | Incumbent | Cook | Rothenberg | CQ Politics | Sabato's Crystal Ball |
RealClear | Winner |
Notes
- Not including the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, who serves a four-year term.
References
- "Battle For The House". Realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved November 4, 2010.
- Silver, Nate (October 31, 2010). "The Ultimate Hour-by-Hour, District-by-District Election Guide". Fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com. Retrieved November 4, 2010.
- Ishmael, Patrick (October 31, 2010). "Game Time: Final House rankings and printable cheat sheet". Hot Air. Archived from the original on December 3, 2010. Retrieved November 24, 2010.
- "What To Look For On Election Night". Rasmussen Reports. November 2, 2010. Archived from the original on November 4, 2010. Retrieved November 24, 2010.
- Ishmael, Patrick (October 25, 2010). "Eight days out, GOP still poised to gain 60+ House seats". Hot Air. Archived from the original on November 29, 2010. Retrieved November 24, 2010.
- "2010 House Ratings". Centerforpolitics.org. November 1, 2010. Retrieved November 4, 2010.
- Cook Political Report (October 26, 2010). "Cook Political Ups Projected Democratic Losses To 48 to 60". Archived from the original on October 29, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
- "Democrats Will Lose the House: Charlie Cook". Outsidethebeltway.com. February 22, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
- Scott Rasmussen (November 1, 2010). "A Vote Against Dems, Not for the GOP". wsj.com. Retrieved November 4, 2010.
- "House Ratings". rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. October 28, 2010. Retrieved November 4, 2010.
- Rothenberg, The (April 14, 2010). "The Rothenberg Political Report: New Print Edition: House Overview". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
- "CQ Politics | House Race Ratings Map for 2010". Innovation.cqpolitics.com. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010.
- "CQ Politics | House Race Ratings Map for 2010". Innovation.cqpolitics.com. Archived from the original on July 10, 2010. Retrieved July 11, 2010.
- "The Cook Political Report – Charts – 2010 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com. November 1, 2010. Archived from the original on November 4, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
- Rothenberg Political Report (November 1, 2010). "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 1, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
- "2010 House Ratings Chart". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
- Crystal Ball, as of November 1, 2010
- RealClearPolitics, as of November 1, 2010