2021 Tasmanian state election: Difference between revisions

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			{{Use dmy dates\|date=January 2018}}
	#REDIRECT ]
			{{Infobox election
			\| election_name = Next Tasmanian state election
			\| country = Tasmania
			\| type = parliamentary
			\| ongoing = yes
			\| previous_election = 2018 Tasmanian state election
			\| previous_year = 2018
			\| election_date = On or before 14 May 2022
			\| next_election =
			\| next_year =
			\| seats_for_election = All 25 seats in the ]
			\| majority_seats = 13
			\| opinion_polls = <!-- Liberal -->
			\| image1 = ]
			\| leader1 = ]
			\| party1 = Liberal Party of Australia (Tasmanian Division)
			\| leader_since1 = 20 January 2020
			\| leaders_seat1 = ]
			\| popular_vote1 =
			\| percentage1 =
			\| swing1 =
			\| last_election1 = 13 seats; 50.26%
			\| seats_before1 = 12 seats
			\| seats_needed1 = {{increase}}1
			\| seats1 =
			\| seat_change1 = <!-- Labor -->
			\| image2 = {{CSS image crop \|Image = Rebecca White MP.jpg\|bSize = 220\|cWidth = 110\|cHeight = 150\|oTop = 15\|oLeft = 60}}
			\| leader2 = ]
			\| leader_since2 = {{nowrap\|17 March 2017}}
			\| party2 = Australian Labor Party (Tasmanian Branch)
			\| leaders_seat2 = ]
			\| popular_vote2 =
			\| percentage2 =
			\| swing2 =
			\| last_election2 = 10 seats; 32.63%
			\| seats_before2 = 9 seats
			\| seats_needed2 = {{increase}}4
			\| seats2 =
			\| seat_change2 = <!-- Greens -->
			\| image3 = ]
			\| leader3 = ]
			\| leader_since3 = 12 June 2015
			\| party3 = Tasmanian Greens
			\| leaders_seat3 = ]
			\| popular_vote3 =
			\| percentage3 =
			\| swing3 =
			\| last_election3 = 2 seats; 10.30%
			\| seats_before3 = 2 seats
			\| seats_needed3 = {{increase}}11
			\| seats3 =
			\| seat_change3 =
			\| title = ]
			\| before_election = ]
			\| before_party = Liberal Party of Australia (Tasmanian Division)
			\| after_election =
			\| after_party =
			}}

			The '''next Tasmanian state election''' is scheduled to be held in 2022 to elect all 25 members to the ].

			The incumbent ] government, currently led by ] ], will attempt to win a third term against the ] opposition, currently led by the Tasmanian ], ]. Also contesting the election will be the ], currently led by ].

			The House of Assembly uses the ] ] to elect 25 members in five constituencies electing five members each. Upper house elections in the 15-seat ] ] use full-preference ] voting, with election dates staggered and conducted separately from lower house state elections. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.

			==Date==
			Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, the House of Assembly expires four years from the return of the writs for its election. The writs for the ] were returned on 15 March 2018.<ref>http://www.parliament.tas.gov.au/tpl/Elections/e2018.html</ref> The Governor must issue ] between five and ten days thereafter.<ref>Electoral Act 2004, .</ref> Nominations must close on a date seven to 21 days after the issuance of the writ,<ref>Electoral Act 2004, .</ref> and polling day must be a Saturday between 15 and 30 days after nominations close,<ref>Electoral Act 2004, .</ref> meaning the election must take place by 14 May 2022.

			==Background==
			{{Main\|2018 Tasmanian state election}}
			The ] saw the ] led by ] retain government, winning 13 seats compared to the ]'s 10 seats and the ] with 2. Despite holding a one-seat majority, the Liberal Government's choice for ] was rejected by the ] shortly after the new parliament began sitting in May 2018.<ref name=Hickey>{{cite web\|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-01/sue-hickey-set-to-become-new-tasmanian-speaker-in-surprise-move/9714572\|title=New Speaker Sue Hickey distances herself from Liberal Party in dramatic first day of Parliament\|work=ABC News\|date=1 May 2018}}</ref> Liberal member ] was elected to the Speakership with the support of Labor and the Greens.<ref name=Hickey/> Hickey revealed she would vote independently on government bills though she has said she will "always support the Liberal Government" on ].<ref name=Hickey/><ref name=Hickey1>{{cite web\|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-21/sue-hickey-breaks-ranks-over-glenorchy-council-loan/9784128\|title=Speaker Sue Hickey departs from Liberal script to call for Glenorchy Council's rescue\|work=ABC News\|date=22 May 2018}}</ref> This composition of seating arrangements ended in September 2019, when former Labor parliamentarian-turned-independent ] replaced Labor MP ].<ref>{{cite web\|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-12/madeleine-ogilvie-former-labor-mp-rejoins-tasmanian-parliament/11505992\|title=Madeleine Ogilvie is an independent with Labor blood and a seat with the Liberals\|work=ABC News\|date=12 September 2019}}</ref> Hickey was later denied preselection in Clark, and she announced she would run as an independent.

			==Polling==
			Polling is regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). The sample size for each EMRS poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters.<ref>.</ref>

			{\| class="toccolours" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" style="float:left; text-align:center; margin-right:.5em; margin-top:.4em; font-size:90%;"
			\|-
			\|+'''House of Assembly (lower house) polling'''
			\|-
			!
			! rowspan="2"\|Firm
			! style="background:#ccc;" colspan="7"\|Political parties
			\|-
			!
			! style="background:#00bfff;"\|]
			! style="background:#f66;"\|]
			! style="background:#10c25b;"\|]
			! style="background:#ddd;"\|IND/OTH
			\|-
			!style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|February 2021
			\|style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|EMRS<ref name="emrs-feb21">{{cite web \|title=EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll February 2021 \|url=https://www.emrs.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/EMRS-State-Voting-Intentions-Report-February-2021.pdf \|publisher=EMRS}}</ref>
			\|style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|52%
			\|style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|27%
			\|style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|14%
			\|style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|7%
			\|-
			!November 2020
			\|EMRS<ref name="emrs-nov20">{{cite web \|title=EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll November 2020 \|url=https://www.emrs.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/EMRS-State-Voting-Intentions-Report-November-2020-FINAL.pdf \|publisher=EMRS}}</ref>
			\|52%
			\|25%
			\|13%
			\|11%
			\|-
			! style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|August 2020
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|EMRS<ref name="emrs-aug20">{{cite web \|title=EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll August 2020 \|url=https://www.emrs.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/EMRS-State-Voting-Intentions-Report-August-2020.pdf \|publisher=EMRS}}</ref>
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|54%
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|24%
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|12%
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|10%
			\|-
			!May 2020
			\|EMRS<ref name="emrs-aug20" />
			\|52%
			\|28%
			\|10%
			\|10%
			\|-
			! style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|March 2020
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|EMRS<ref name="emrs-mar20">{{cite web \|title=EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll March 2020 \|url=https://www.emrs.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/EMRS-State-Voting-Intentions-Report-March-2020.pdf \|publisher=EMRS}}</ref>
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|43%
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|34%
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|12%
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|11%
			\|-
			! colspan="6" style="font-size:90%;"\| 20 January 2020 Peter Gutwein becomes leader of the Liberal Party and Premier of Tasmania
			\|-
			! style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|December 2019
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|EMRS<ref name="emrs-mar20" />
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|44%
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|32%
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|13%
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|12%
			\|-
			!November 2019
			\|EMRS<ref name="emrs-mar20" />
			\|47%
			\|29%
			\|13%
			\|11%
			\|-
			! style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|July 2019
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|EMRS<ref name="emrs-jul19">{{cite web \|website= emrs.com.au \|url= https://www.emrs.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/EMRS-State-Voting-Intentions-Report-July-2019.pdf \|title= State Voting Intentions July 2019 \|date=6 August 2019 }}</ref>
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|38%
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|30%
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|16%
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|16%
			\|-
			!May 2019
			\|EMRS<ref name="emrs-jul19" />
			\|38%
			\|34%
			\|13%
			\|15%
			\|-
			! style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|March 2019
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|EMRS<ref name="emrs-jul19" />
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|38%
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|34%
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|14%
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|14%
			\|-
			!20 December 2018
			\|EMRS<ref>{{Cite web\|url=https://www.emrs.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/EMRS-State-Voting-Intentions-Report-December-2018.pdf\|title=EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll December 2018\|website=www.emrs.com.au\|access-date=2018-12-26}}</ref>
			\|39%
			\|35%
			\|14%
			\|12%
			\|-
			! style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|31 August 2018
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|EMRS<ref>{{cite web \|website= emrs.com.au \|url= https://www.emrs.com.au/pdfs/EMRS%20State%20Voting%20Intentions%20Report%20-%20May%202018.pdf \|title= State Voting Intentions August 2018 \|date=4 September 2018 }}</ref>
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|36%
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|34%
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|16%
			\| style="background:#e9e9e9;"\|14%
			\|-
			! 10 May 2018
			\| EMRS<ref>{{cite web \|url= https://www.emrs.com.au/pdfs/EMRS%20State%20Voting%20Intentions%20Report%20-%20May%202018.pdf\|title=State Voting Intentions May 2018 \|date=17 May 2018 }}</ref>
			\| 47%
			\| 30%
			\| 14%
			\| 8%
			\|-
			! style="background:#b0e9db;"\|]
			\| style="background:#b0e9db;"\|
			\| style="background:#b0e9db;"\|50.3%
			\| style="background:#b0e9db;"\|32.6%
			\| style="background:#b0e9db;"\|10.3%
			\| style="background:#b0e9db;"\|4.5%
			\|-
			! 27 February 2018
			\| EMRS<ref>{{cite web\|url=http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2018/02/tasmania-2018-emrs-has-it-little-closer.html\|title=Tasmania 2018: EMRS Has It A Little Closer Than ReachTEL \|date=27 February 2018 \|work=Dr. Kevin Bonham's Blog \|access-date=27 February 2018}}</ref>
			\| 46%
			\| 34%
			\| 12%
			\| 7%
			\|-
			\| colspan="8" style="font-size:80%; background:#cef;"\| conducted by EMRS.
			\|}

			{\| class="toccolours" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" style="float:right; text-align:center; margin-right:.5em; margin-top:.4em; font-size:90%;"
			\|-
			\|+ '''Preferred Premier polling^'''
			\|-
			!
			! Liberal<br />''Gutwein''
			! Labor<br />''White''
			\|-
			!February 2021
			\| style="background:#00bfff;"\|61%
			\| 26%
			\|-
			!November 2020
			\| style="background:#00bfff;"\|61%
			\| 26%
			\|-
			!August 2020
			\| style="background:#00bfff;"\|70%
			\| 23%
			\|-
			!May 2020
			\| style="background:#00bfff;"\|63%
			\| 26%
			\|-
			!March 2020
			\| 39%
			\| style="background:#f66;"\|41%
			\|-
			!
			! ''Hodgman''
			! ''White''
			\|-
			!December 2019
			\| 42%
			\| style="background:#f66;"\|43%
			\|-
			!November 2019
			\|40%
			\| style="background:#f66;"\|45%
			\|-
			!July 2019
			\|40%
			\| style="background:#f66;"\|45%
			\|-
			!May 2019
			\|41%
			\| style="background:#f66;"\|43%
			\|-
			!March 2019
			\|41%
			\| style="background:#f66;"\|44%
			\|-
			!December 2018
			\|40%
			\| style="background:#f66;"\|46%
			\|-
			! August 2018
			\|36%
			\| style="background:#f66;"\| 48%
			\|-
			! May 2018
			\| style="background:#00bfff;"\|47%
			\|41%
			\|-
			! style="background:#b0e9db;"\|]
			\| style="background:#b0e9db;"\|
			\| style="background:#b0e9db;"\|
			\|-
			! January 2018
			\| style="background:#00bfff;"\|48%
			\|41%
			\|-
			\| colspan="4" style="font-size:80%; background:#cef;"\| conducted by EMRS.<br />^ Remainder were "uncommitted".
			\|}
			{{-}}
			{{reflist\|group=note}}

			==References==
			{{reflist}}

			{{Tasmanian elections}}
			{{Government of Tasmania}}
			{{Politics of Australia}}

			{{DEFAULTSORT:Tasmanian state election, Next}}
			]
			]
			]

Revision as of 00:53, 26 March 2021

Next Tasmanian state election

← 2018

On or before 14 May 2022

All 25 seats in the Tasmanian House of Assembly
13 seats needed for a majority


Leader	Peter Gutwein	Rebecca White	Cassy O'Connor
Party	Liberal	Labor	Greens
Leader since	20 January 2020	17 March 2017	12 June 2015
Leader's seat	Bass	Lyons	Clark
Last election	13 seats; 50.26%	10 seats; 32.63%	2 seats; 10.30%
Current seats	12 seats	9 seats	2 seats
Seats needed	1	4	11

Incumbent Premier

Peter Gutwein
Liberal

The next Tasmanian state election is scheduled to be held in 2022 to elect all 25 members to the Tasmanian House of Assembly.

The incumbent Liberal government, currently led by Premier of Tasmania Peter Gutwein, will attempt to win a third term against the Labor opposition, currently led by the Tasmanian Opposition Leader, Rebecca White. Also contesting the election will be the Greens, currently led by Cassy O'Connor.

The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system to elect 25 members in five constituencies electing five members each. Upper house elections in the 15-seat single-member district Legislative Council use full-preference instant-runoff voting, with election dates staggered and conducted separately from lower house state elections. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.

Date

Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, the House of Assembly expires four years from the return of the writs for its election. The writs for the 2018 Tasmanian state election were returned on 15 March 2018. The Governor must issue writs of election between five and ten days thereafter. Nominations must close on a date seven to 21 days after the issuance of the writ, and polling day must be a Saturday between 15 and 30 days after nominations close, meaning the election must take place by 14 May 2022.

Background

Main article: 2018 Tasmanian state election

The previous election in 2018 saw the Liberal Party led by Will Hodgman retain government, winning 13 seats compared to the Labor Party's 10 seats and the Greens with 2. Despite holding a one-seat majority, the Liberal Government's choice for Speaker was rejected by the Assembly shortly after the new parliament began sitting in May 2018. Liberal member Sue Hickey was elected to the Speakership with the support of Labor and the Greens. Hickey revealed she would vote independently on government bills though she has said she will "always support the Liberal Government" on confidence and supply. This composition of seating arrangements ended in September 2019, when former Labor parliamentarian-turned-independent Madeleine Ogilvie replaced Labor MP Scott Bacon. Hickey was later denied preselection in Clark, and she announced she would run as an independent.

Polling

Polling is regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). The sample size for each EMRS poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters.

**House of Assembly (lower house) polling**
	Firm	Political parties
	Firm	LIB	ALP	GRN	IND/OTH
February 2021	EMRS	52%	27%	14%	7%
November 2020	EMRS	52%	25%	13%	11%
August 2020	EMRS	54%	24%	12%	10%
May 2020	EMRS	52%	28%	10%	10%
March 2020	EMRS	43%	34%	12%	11%
20 January 2020 Peter Gutwein becomes leader of the Liberal Party and Premier of Tasmania
December 2019	EMRS	44%	32%	13%	12%
November 2019	EMRS	47%	29%	13%	11%
July 2019	EMRS	38%	30%	16%	16%
May 2019	EMRS	38%	34%	13%	15%
March 2019	EMRS	38%	34%	14%	14%
20 December 2018	EMRS	39%	35%	14%	12%
31 August 2018	EMRS	36%	34%	16%	14%
10 May 2018	EMRS	47%	30%	14%	8%
2018 election		50.3%	32.6%	10.3%	4.5%
27 February 2018	EMRS	46%	34%	12%	7%
Polling conducted by EMRS.

**Preferred Premier polling^**
	Liberal Gutwein	Labor White
February 2021	61%	26%
November 2020	61%	26%
August 2020	70%	23%
May 2020	63%	26%
March 2020	39%	41%
	Hodgman	White
December 2019	42%	43%
November 2019	40%	45%
July 2019	40%	45%
May 2019	41%	43%
March 2019	41%	44%
December 2018	40%	46%
August 2018	36%	48%
May 2018	47%	41%
2018 election
January 2018	48%	41%
Polling conducted by EMRS. ^ Remainder were "uncommitted".

References

http://www.parliament.tas.gov.au/tpl/Elections/e2018.html
Electoral Act 2004, section 63.
Electoral Act 2004, section 69.
Electoral Act 2004, section 70.
^ "New Speaker Sue Hickey distances herself from Liberal Party in dramatic first day of Parliament". ABC News. 1 May 2018.
"Speaker Sue Hickey departs from Liberal script to call for Glenorchy Council's rescue". ABC News. 22 May 2018.
"Madeleine Ogilvie is an independent with Labor blood and a seat with the Liberals". ABC News. 12 September 2019.
EMRS.com.au website.
"EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll February 2021" (PDF). EMRS.
"EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll November 2020" (PDF). EMRS.
^ "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll August 2020" (PDF). EMRS.
^ "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll March 2020" (PDF). EMRS.
^ "State Voting Intentions July 2019" (PDF). emrs.com.au. 6 August 2019.
"EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll December 2018" (PDF). www.emrs.com.au. Retrieved 26 December 2018.
"State Voting Intentions August 2018" (PDF). emrs.com.au. 4 September 2018.
"State Voting Intentions May 2018" (PDF). 17 May 2018.
"Tasmania 2018: EMRS Has It A Little Closer Than ReachTEL". Dr. Kevin Bonham's Blog. 27 February 2018. Retrieved 27 February 2018.

v t e Elections and referendums in Tasmania
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