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Opinion polling for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election: Difference between revisions

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Revision as of 06:55, 5 May 2021

In the run-up to the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, various organisations are conducting opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Scottish Parliament election, held on 5 May 2016, to the present day. Under the Scottish Elections (Dates) Act 2016, the next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021.

Graphical summary

Graph of opinion poll results for the next Scottish Parliament election. Trendlines are 30-day moving averages.

Regional vote
Constituency vote
Key

  SNP – Scottish National Party
  Conservative – Scottish Conservatives
  Labour – Scottish Labour
  Lib Dem – Scottish Liberal Democrats
  Green – Scottish Greens
  UKIP – UK Independence Party
  Reform – Reform UK
  SSP – Scottish Socialist Party
  Alba – Alba Party
  AFU – All for Unity

Constituency vote

The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 73 single member constituency seats elected through the plurality voting system.

Graphical summary

Poll results

Pollster Client Date(s)
conducted
Sample
size
SNP Con Lab Lib Dem Green UKIP Ref UK Other Lead
data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Scottish Conservatives/meta/color;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Scottish Labour/meta/color;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Scottish Liberal Democrats/meta/color;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Scottish Greens/meta/color;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Reform UK/meta/color;" |
4 May 2021 BBC Scotland leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie
YouGov The Times 2–4 May 2021 1,144 52% 20% 19% 6% 2% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 32%
Survation The Courier 30 Apr – 4 May 2021 1,008 49% 21% 21% 8% 1% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |28%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 30 Apr – 4 May 2021 1,000~ 42% 25% 22% 8% 3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |17%
Opinium Sky News 28 Apr – 3 May 2021 1,015 51% 23% 19% 7% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |28%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 28–30 Apr 2021 1,096 48% 21% 20% 7% 3% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |27%
BMG The Herald 27–30 Apr 2021 1,023 49% 19% 21% 9% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |28%
27 Apr 2021 Channel 4 News leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 23–27 Apr 2021 1,001 45% 23% 23% 7% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |22%
Survation GMB 23–26 Apr 2021 1,008 47% 21% 21% 8% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |26%
Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 21–26 Apr 2021 1,075 45% 20% 22% 8% 4% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |23%
Survation The Sunday Post 20–22 Apr 2021 1,037 50% 21% 21% 7% 1% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |29%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 16–20 Apr 2021 1,001 46% 25% 20% 6% 3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |21%
YouGov The Times 16–20 Apr 2021 1,204 49% 21% 21% 6% 1% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 28%
13 Apr 2021 STV leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie
Panelbase Believe in Scotland 9–12 Apr 2021 1,002 47% 23% 20% 6% 4% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |24%
Lord Ashcroft N/A 7–19 Apr 2021 2,017 49% 22% 15% 8% 5% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |27%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 2–7 Apr 2021 1,007 49% 23% 18% 6% 3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |26%
Opinium Sky News 1–6 Apr 2021 1,023 53% 21% 18% 6% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |32%
Ipsos MORI STV News 30 Mar – 4 Apr 2021 1,038 53% 20% 18% 6% 2% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |33%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 30 Mar – 1 Apr 2021 1,009 49% 22% 20% 6% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |27%
30 Mar 2021 BBC Scotland leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Slater
Survation The Courier 29–30 Mar 2021 1,000 49% 21% 20% 9% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |28%
26 Mar 2021 Former first minister Alex Salmond launches the Alba Party
Find Out Now Daily Express 23–26 Mar 2021 1,022 50% 21% 17% 5% 4% 1% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |29%
YouGov The Times 19–22 Mar 2021 N/A 50% 24% 17% 5% 2% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 26%
BMG The Herald 16–19 Mar 2021 1,021 48% 21% 20% 8% 1% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |27%
Survation The Courier 11–18 Mar 2021 1,515 50% 21% 20% 8% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |29%
Opinium Sky News 11–16 Mar 2021 1,096 46% 24% 20% 6% 4% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |22%
Survation Scotland in Union 9–12 Mar 2021 1,011 46% 21% 23% 8% 1% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |23%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 5–10 Mar 2021 1,009 48% 23% 20% 8% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |25%
YouGov The Times 4–8 Mar 2021 1,100 52% 22% 17% 6% 2% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 30%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 3–5 Mar 2021 1,013 47% 23% 20% 7% 2% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |24%
27 Feb 2021 Anas Sarwar is elected leader of Scottish Labour
Survation Daily Record 24–25 Feb 2021 1,011 50% 21% 20% 7% 3% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |29%
Ipsos MORI STV News 15–21 Feb 2021 1,031 52% 23% 15% 5% 3% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |29%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 4–9 Feb 2021 1,002 50% 23% 19% 6% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |27%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 19–22 Jan 2021 1,059 52% 20% 17% 6% 3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |32%
Survation Scot Goes Pop 11–13 Jan 2021 1,020 51% 19% 19% 9% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |32%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 8–13 Jan 2021 1,016 49% 20% 20% 8% 4% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |29%
06 Jan 2021 The Brexit Party is re-registered as Reform UK
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 11–15 Dec 2020 1,013 52% 19% 19% 7% 3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |33%
Survation N/A 4–9 Dec 2020 1,010 53% 20% 20% 6% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 33%
Ipsos MORI STV News 20–26 Nov 2020 1,006 55% 22% 14% 6% 1% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 33%
Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 5–11 Nov 2020 1,020 53% 21% 18% 5% 3% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |32%
YouGov N/A 6–10 Nov 2020 1,089 56% 19% 15% 6% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 37%
Survation N/A 28 Oct – 3 Nov 2020 1,071 54% 19% 18% 8% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 35%
Ipsos MORI STV News 2–9 Oct 2020 1,045 58% 19% 13% 8% 1% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 39%
Savanta ComRes N/A 9 Oct 2020 1,003 50% 23% 18% 6% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 27%
JL Partners Politico 17–21 Sep 2020 1,016 58% 19% 13% 8% 2% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 39%
Survation N/A 2–7 Sep 2020 1,018 53% 20% 18% 7% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 33%
Savanta ComRes N/A 6–13 Aug 2020 1,008 51% 24% 17% 6% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 27%
YouGov The Times 6–10 Aug 2020 1,142 57% 20% 14% 8% 1% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 37%
5 Aug 2020 Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives
Panelbase The Sunday Times 30 Jun – 3 Jul 2020 1,026 55% 20% 15% 6% 3% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 35%
Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 1–5 Jun 2020 1,022 53% 21% 16% 6% 3% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 32%
Panelbase Wings Over Scotland 1–5 May 2020 1,086 53% 23% 15% 5% 3% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 30%
YouGov N/A 24–27 Apr 2020 1,095 54% 23% 12% 8% 2% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 31%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 24–26 Mar 2020 1,023 51% 26% 14% 6% 3% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 25%
14 Feb 2020 Jackson Carlaw is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives
Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 28–31 Jan 2020 1,016 50% 26% 14% 7% 3% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 24%
Survation Progress Scotland 20–22 Jan 2020 1,019 51% 23% 17% 7% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 28%
12 Dec 2019 2019 United Kingdom general election
Panelbase The Sunday Times 3–6 Dec 2019 1,020 43% 26% 19% 8% 2% 2% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 17%
YouGov The Times 29 Nov – 3 Dec 2019 1,002 46% 26% 14% 11% 1% 0% 0% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 20%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 20–22 Nov 2019 1,009 43% 26% 17% 9% 2% 3% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 17%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 9–11 Oct 2019 1,003 42% 21% 19% 10% 3% <1% 4% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 21%
YouGov The Times 29 Aug – 3 Sep 2019 1,059 45% 23% 13% 12% 2% 3% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 22%
29 Aug 2019 Shetland by-election
1 Aug 2019 Lorna Slater is elected co-leader of the Scottish Greens alongside Patrick Harvie
Panelbase The Sunday Times 18–20 Jun 2019 1,024 42% 20% 16% 11% 3% <1% 7% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 22%
23 May 2019 2019 European Parliament election
Panelbase The Sunday Times 14–17 May 2019 1,021 41% 20% 18% 8% 3% 1% 7% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 21%
YouGov The Times 24–26 Apr 2019 1,029 46% 22% 16% 7% 3% 4% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 24%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 18–24 Apr 2019 1,018 40% 22% 20% 6% 3% 1% 5% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 18%
Panelbase Wings Over Scotland 28 Feb – 6 Mar 2019 1,002 41% 27% 19% 8% 3% 2% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 14%
Survation Scottish Daily Mail 1–4 Mar 2019 1,011 43% 24% 22% 9% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 19%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 30 Nov – 5 Dec 2018 1,028 41% 25% 23% 6% 3% 1% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 16%
Panelbase Constitutional Commission 2–7 Nov 2018 1,050 39% 27% 24% 6% 3% 1% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 12%
Survation Daily Record 18–21 Oct 2018 1,017 38% 26% 25% 9% 1% 0% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 12%
Survation/SNP N/A 3–5 Oct 2018 1,013 44% 24% 23% 8% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 20%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2018 1,024 41% 26% 21% 6% 3% 2% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 15%
Survation The Sunday Post 28 Sep – 2 Oct 2018 1,036 43% 24% 23% 9% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 19%
Survation Daily Record 5–10 Jul 2018 1,004 44% 24% 21% 9% 3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 20%
Panelbase Wings Over Scotland 21–27 Jun 2018 1,018 41% 27% 22% 6% 2% 1% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 14%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 8–13 Jun 2018 1,021 40% 28% 24% 6% 2% <1% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 12%
YouGov The Times 1–5 Jun 2018 1,075 41% 27% 22% 6% 2% 1% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 14%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 23–28 Mar 2018 1,037 40% 28% 22% 6% 3% <1% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 12%
Survation Daily Record 24–28 Jan 2018 1,029 42% 25% 25% 6% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 17%
YouGov The Times 12–16 Jan 2018 1,002 38% 26% 23% 7% 3% 2% 0% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 12%
Panelbase Wings Over Scotland 15–20 Dec 2017 1,022 39% 26% 25% 6% 2% <1% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 13%
Survation The Sunday Post 1–5 Dec 2017 1,006 39% 24% 28% 7% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 11%
Survation Daily Record 27–30 Nov 2017 1,017 39% 24% 25% 8% 3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 14%
18 Nov 2017 Richard Leonard is elected leader of Scottish Labour
YouGov The Times 2–5 Oct 2017 1,135 42% 25% 25% 5% 2% 1% 0% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 17%
Survation Scottish Daily Mail 8–12 Sep 2017 1,016 42% 26% 25% 7% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 16%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 31 Aug – 7 Sep 2017 1,021 42% 28% 22% 6% 2% <1% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 14%
8 Jun 2017 2017 United Kingdom general election
4 May 2017 2017 Scottish local elections
YouGov The Times 9–14 Mar 2017 1,028 51% 24% 14% 6% 4% 1% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 27%
YouGov The Times 24–29 Nov 2016 1,134 48% 25% 15% 6% 3% 1% 0% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 23%
BMG N/A 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2016 1,010 51% 21% 18% 7% 3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 30%
YouGov The Times 29–31 Aug 2016 1,039 52% 21% 16% 5% 3% 2% 0% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 31%
Survation Scottish Daily Mail 24–28 Jun 2016 1,055 50% 21% 18% 8% 4% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 29%
2016 Scottish Parliament election 5 May 2016 46.5% 22.0% 22.6% 7.8% 0.6% 0.5% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 23.9%


Regional vote

The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 56 regional list seats elected through the additional member system.

Graphical summary

Poll results

Pollster Client Date(s)
conducted
Sample
size
SNP Con Lab Green Lib Dem Alba UKIP Ref UK SSP Other Lead
data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Scottish Conservatives/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Scottish Labour/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Scottish Greens/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Scottish Liberal Democrats/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Alba Party/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Reform UK/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Scottish Socialist Party/meta/color;"|
4 May 2021 BBC Scotland leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie
YouGov The Times 2–4 May 2021 1,144 38% 22% 16% 13% 5% 3% 1% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 16%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 30 Apr – 4 May 2021 1,000~ 34% 23% 19% 9% 6% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |11%
Opinium Sky News 28 Apr – 3 May 2021 1,015 41% 23% 17% 8% 6% 3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |18%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 28–30 Apr 2021 1,096 39% 22% 16% 8% 7% 4% 4% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |17%
BMG The Herald 27–30 Apr 2021 1,023 37% 22% 17% 9% 8% 4% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |15%
27 Apr 2021 Channel 4 News leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 23–27 Apr 2021 1,001 36% 22% 19% 10% 5% 2% 8% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |14%
Survation GMB 23–26 Apr 2021 1,008 37% 22% 18% 10% 7% 2% 1% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |15%
Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 21–26 Apr 2021 1,075 36% 21% 18% 10% 6% 6% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |15%
Survation The Sunday Post 20–22 Apr 2021 1,037 35% 20% 22% 10% 7% 3% 1% 1% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |13%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 16–20 Apr 2021 1,001 38% 23% 17% 7% 5% 1% 7% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |15%
YouGov The Times 16–20 Apr 2021 1,204 39% 22% 17% 10% 5% 2% 1% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 17%
13 Apr 2021 STV leaders debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie
Panelbase Believe in Scotland 9–12 Apr 2021 1,002 36% 22% 17% 9% 6% 6% 4% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |14%
Lord Ashcroft N/A 7–19 Apr 2021 2,017 42% 22% 16% 9% 7% 2% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |20%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 2–7 Apr 2021 1,007 40% 21% 18% 9% 7% 3% 3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |19%
Opinium Sky News 1–6 Apr 2021 1,023 44% 22% 17% 7% 5% 2% 3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |22%
Ipsos MORI STV News 30 Mar – 4 Apr 2021 1,038 38% 21% 18% 12% 6% 3% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |17%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 30 Mar – 1 Apr 2021 1,009 39% 21% 17% 8% 5% 6% 4% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |18%
30 Mar 2021 BBC Scotland leaders debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Slater
Survation The Courier 29–30 Mar 2021 1,000 38% 18% 19% 11% 8% 3% 1% 1% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |19%
26 Mar 2021 Former first minister Alex Salmond launches the Alba Party
Find Out Now Daily Express 23–26 Mar 2021 1,022 42% 21% 16% 11% 5% 2% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |21%
YouGov The Times 19–22 Mar 2021 N/A 46% 24% 15% 8% 5% 3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 22%
BMG The Herald 16–19 Mar 2021 1,021 42% 22% 17% 8% 8% 1% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |20%
Survation The Courier 11–18 Mar 2021 1,515 39% 19% 20% 11% 7% 1% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |19%
Opinium Sky News 11–16 Mar 2021 1,096 42% 22% 19% 7% 5% 4% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |20%
Survation Scotland in Union 9–12 Mar 2021 1,011 39% 21% 20% 10% 8% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |18%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 5–10 Mar 2021 1,009 40% 24% 18% 10% 6% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |16%
YouGov The Times 4–8 Mar 2021 1,100 45% 21% 16% 6% 5% 3% 4% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |24%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 3–5 Mar 2021 1,013 42% 22% 19% 6% 7% 4% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |20%
27 Feb 2021 Anas Sarwar is elected leader of Scottish Labour
Survation Daily Record 24–25 Feb 2021 1,011 38% 21% 20% 11% 7% 3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |17%
Ipsos MORI STV News 15–21 Feb 2021 1,031 47% 22% 14% 8% 6% 3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |25%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 4–9 Feb 2021 1,002 39% 21% 21% 10% 9% 3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |18%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 19–22 Jan 2021 1,059 46% 20% 16% 8% 6% 3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |26%
Survation Scot Goes Pop 11–13 Jan 2021 1,020 40% 17% 19% 11% 9% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |19%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 8–13 Jan 2021 1,016 40% 18% 20% 10% 9% 3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |20%
06 Jan 2021 The Brexit Party is re-registered as Reform UK
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 11–15 Dec 2020 1,013 39% 20% 20% 11% 7% 3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 19%
Survation N/A 4–9 Dec 2020 1,010 41% 18% 20% 10% 7% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |21%
Ipsos MORI STV News 20–26 Nov 2020 1,006 47% 22% 16% 7% 6% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 25%
Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 5–11 Nov 2020 1,020 46% 20% 18% 8% 6% 3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" |26%
YouGov N/A 6–10 Nov 2020 1,089 47% 20% 13% 7% 6% 3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 27%
Survation N/A 28 Oct – 3 Nov 2020 1,071 43% 17% 19% 10% 7% 1% 2% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 24%
Ipsos MORI STV News 2–9 Oct 2020 1,045 48% 18% 14% 9% 8% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 30%
Savanta ComRes N/A 9 Oct 2020 1,003 41% 21% 18% 11% 7% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 20%
JL Partners Politico 17–21 Sep 2020 1,016 53% 19% 13% 5% 8% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 34%
Survation N/A 2–7 Sep 2020 1,018 42% 18% 18% 10% 8% 2% 2% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 24%
Savanta ComRes N/A 6–13 Aug 2020 1,008 43% 21% 17% 10% 8% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 22%
YouGov The Times 6–10 Aug 2020 1,142 47% 21% 14% 6% 7% 1% 4% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 26%
05 Aug 2020 Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives
Panelbase The Sunday Times 30 Jun – 3 Jul 2020 1,026 50% 18% 15% 8% 6% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 32%
Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 1–5 Jun 2020 1,022 48% 19% 16% 7% 8% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 29%
Panelbase Wings Over Scotland 1–5 May 2020 1,086 48% 22% 15% 7% 6% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 26%
YouGov N/A 24–27 Apr 2020 1,095 45% 23% 12% 8% 7% 4% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 22%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 24–26 Mar 2020 1,023 48% 26% 13% 6% 6% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 22%
14 Feb 2020 Jackson Carlaw is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives
Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 28–31 Jan 2020 1,016 47% 25% 14% 7% 7% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 22%
Survation Progress Scotland 20–22 Jan 2020 1,019 38% 21% 19% 9% 9% 1% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 17%
12 Dec 2019 2019 United Kingdom general election
Panelbase The Sunday Times 3–6 Dec 2019 1,020 38% 26% 18% 6% 9% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 12%
YouGov The Times 29 Nov – 3 Dec 2019 1,002 37% 25% 14% 8% 10% 2% 3% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 12%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 20–22 Nov 2019 1,009 39% 25% 17% 6% 9% 3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 14%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 9–11 Oct 2019 1,003 38% 21% 18% 6% 11% <1% 4% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 17%
YouGov The Times 30 Aug – 3 Sep 2019 1,059 39% 20% 11% 8% 13% 1% 5% 3% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 19%
29 Aug 2019 Shetland by-election
1 Aug 2019 Lorna Slater is elected co-leader of the Scottish Greens alongside Patrick Harvie
Panelbase The Sunday Times 18–20 Jun 2019 1,024 39% 20% 16% 7% 10% <1% 6% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 19%
23 May 2019 2019 European Parliament election
Panelbase The Sunday Times 14–17 May 2019 1,021 37% 19% 18% 7% 8% 2% 6% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 18%
YouGov The Times 24–26 Apr 2019 1,029 37% 20% 15% 10% 7% 2% 5% 3% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 17%
Panelbase N/A 18–24 Apr 2019 1,018 37% 22% 19% 7% 7% 2% 4% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 15%
Panelbase Wings Over Scotland 28 Feb – 6 Mar 2019 1,002 36% 26% 19% 6% 9% 3% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 10%
Survation Scottish Daily Mail 1–4 Mar 2019 1,011 32% 22% 19% 11% 11% 3% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 10%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 30 Nov – 5 Dec 2018 1,028 38% 26% 22% 6% 7% 1% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 12%
Panelbase Constitutional Commission 2–7 Nov 2018 1,050 37% 26% 22% 6% 6% 2% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 11%
Survation Daily Record 18–21 Oct 2018 1,017 32% 23% 23% 9% 9% 4% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 9%
Survation SNP 3–5 Oct 2018 1,013 40% 25% 22% 4% 8% 2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 15%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2018 1,024 35% 26% 20% 7% 8% 2% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 9%
Survation The Sunday Post 28 Sep – 2 Oct 2018 1,036 32% 21% 23% 10% 8% 5% 0% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 9%
Survation Daily Record 5–10 Jul 2018 1,004 33% 19% 21% 11% 10% 5% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 12%
Panelbase Wings Over Scotland 21–27 Jun 2018 1,018 36% 27% 23% 6% 7% 1% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 9%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 8–13 Jun 2018 1,021 36% 26% 23% 7% 6% 1% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 10%
YouGov The Times 1–5 Jun 2018 1,075 32% 26% 21% 9% 7% 1% 3% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 6%
Survation Daily Record 24–28 Jan 2018 1,029 33% 23% 23% 9% 8% 3% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 10%
YouGov The Times 12–16 Jan 2018 1,002 32% 25% 22% 10% 7% 3% 2% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 7%
Survation The Sunday Post 1–5 Dec 2017 1,006 32% 21% 24% 10% 10% 3% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 8%
Survation Daily Record 27–30 Nov 2017 1,017 33% 22% 25% 8% 8% 3% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 8%
18 Nov 2017 Richard Leonard is elected leader of Scottish Labour
YouGov The Times 2–5 Oct 2017 1,135 35% 23% 24% 6% 6% 1% 3% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 11%
Survation Scottish Daily Mail 8–12 Sep 2017 1,016 31% 21% 25% 9% 10% 3% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 6%
8 Jun 2017 2017 United Kingdom general election
4 May 2017 2017 Scottish local elections
YouGov The Times 9–14 Mar 2017 1,028 40% 25% 14% 12% 5% 2% 1% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 15%
YouGov The Times 24–29 Nov 2016 1,134 39% 24% 14% 11% 6% 4% 1% 0% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 15%
BMG N/A 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2016 1,010 43% 20% 16% 8% 7% 3% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 23%
YouGov The Times 29–31 Aug 2016 1,039 45% 21% 15% 9% 6% 2% 0% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 24%
Survation Scottish Daily Mail 24–28 Jun 2016 1,055 41% 20% 16% 12% 7% 4% 1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 21%
2016 Scottish Parliament election 5 May 2016 41.7% 22.9% 19.1% 6.6% 5.2% 2.0% 0.5% 2.4% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 18.8%

Methodology

Each polling organisation are members of the British Polling Council and uses slightly different methodology in their collection of data. All organisations remove voters who do not give a voting intention from their headline figures; this is usually ranges from 10% to 15% of respondents likely to vote. A brief description of each company's methods is as follows:

  • Panelbase collects its data via an online panel, with results weighted to be demographically representative of the voting age population in terms of age, sex, and country of birth, previous general election vote and independence referendum vote. Additionally, the voting intention data is weighted by how likely respondents were to vote.
  • Survation collects data from its online panel, with the results weighted to the profile of all Scottish adults of voting age in terms of age, sex, region, previous general election vote, previous Scottish Parliament election constituency vote, EU membership referendum vote and independence referendum vote. Responses for voting intention were additionally weighted by likelihood to vote in the election. The data for the 3–5 October 2018 poll for the Scottish National Party was collected via telephone, instead of the online panel.
  • YouGov collects its data through an online survey of its panel, and weights its respondents to be representative of the voting age population as a whole in terms of age by gender by education level (such as Male aged between 25 and 49 with a high level of education), social grades, previous general election vote, independence referendum vote, the respondents' political attention and birthplace (Scotland, elsewhere in the United Kingdom and outside the UK). Additionally, the headline voting intention data is weighted by how likely respondents said they were to vote and whether they voted at the previous general election.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Figure for RISE – Scotland's Left Alliance, of which the Scottish Socialist Party was a constituent in the previous election.
  2. Contested the election as part of RISE – Scotland's Left Alliance.

Footnotes

  1. ^ Change UK on 0%.
  2. ^ Change UK on less than 1%.
  3. ^ Change UK on 1%.
  4. ^ Change UK on 2%.
  5. ^ All for Unity on 2%.
  6. All for Unity on 4%.
  7. Independence for Scotland Party on 1%.

References

  1. "Scottish Elections (Dates) Bill passes stage 3". Scottish Government. 25 February 2016. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  2. "Scottish election 2021: Sturgeon rules out 'wildcat' indyref2 vote in final leaders debate". BBC News. 4 May 2021. Retrieved 4 May 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  3. ^ "Five party leaders go head-to-head in Channel 4's live election debate". Channel 4 News. 27 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.
  4. "Party leaders go head-to-head in STV's live election debate". STV News. 13 April 2021. Retrieved 13 April 2021.
  5. ^ "Scotland election 2021: Leaders go head-to-head in first TV debate". BBC News. 30 March 2021. Retrieved 6 April 2021.
  6. ^ "Former SNP leader Alex Salmond launches new political party". BBC News. 27 March 2021. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
  7. ^ "Anas Sarwar wins Scottish Labour leadership race". BBC News. 27 February 2021. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
  8. ^ "Party registration decisions". Electoral Commission. 2021-01-06. Retrieved 2021-01-06.
  9. ^ "Douglas Ross confirmed as Scottish Conservative leader". BBC News. 5 August 2020. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
  10. ^ "Scottish Conservatives: Jackson Carlaw succeeds Ruth Davidson as leader". BBC News. 14 February 2020. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
  11. ^ "General Election 2019: full results and analysis". UK Parliament. 28 January 2020. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
  12. ^ "Lib Dems hold off SNP to win Shetland by-election". BBC News. 30 August 2019. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
  13. ^ "Scottish Greens elect Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater as co-leaders". BBC News. 1 August 2019. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
  14. ^ "EU Elections 2019: SNP to have three MEPs as Labour vote collapses". BBC News. 27 May 2019. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
  15. ^ "Richard Leonard to lead Scottish Labour". BBC News. 18 November 2017. Retrieved 23 May 2017.
  16. ^ "General Election 2017: full results and analysis". UK Parliament. 29 January 2019. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  17. ^ "Full Scottish council election results published". BBC News. 8 May 2017. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
  18. ^ "Scottish election 2021: Sturgeon rules out 'wildcat' indyref2 vote in final leaders debate". BBC News. 4 May 2021. Retrieved 4 May 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)

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