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=== Water Resources === | === Water Resources === | ||
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The effect of climate change on Syria is reflected primarily by its water scarcity issues. The Middle East is an arid climate, and climate change exacerbates its existing low precipitation levels and susceptibility to drought. Syria’s overall rainfall has decreased over time between 1991 to 2009, particularly in the northwestern portion of the country in the winter and spring.<ref name=":0">Zeleňáková, M., Abd-Elhamid, H. F., Krajníková, K., Smetanková, J., Purcz, P., & Alkhalaf, I. (2022). Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall trends in response to climate change—a case study: Syria. ''Water'', ''14''(10), 1670. <nowiki>https://doi.org/10.3390/w14101670</nowiki> </ref> Reports until 2011 show similar trends, along with increases in average temperatures, which have resulted in extreme droughts.<ref name=":1">''Climate change risk profile - syria''. USAID: From the American People. (n.d.). <nowiki>https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/2017_USAID_GEMS_Climate%20Change%20Risk%20Profile_Syria.pdf</nowiki> </ref> These periods of drought have also grown in frequency and severity from the late 1990s onwards, with some lasting up to 200 days.<ref name=":2">Skaf M., Mathbout S. Drought changes over the last five decades in Syria. In: López-Francos A. (comp.), López-Francos A. (collab.). ''Economics of drought and drought preparedness in a climate change context'' . Zaragoza: CIHEAM / FAO / ICARDA / GDAR / CEIGRAM / MARM, 2010. p. 107-112. (Options Méditerranéennes: Series A. Séminaires Méditerranéens; n. 95). 2. International Conference on Drought Management, 2010/03/04-06, Istanbul (Turkey). <nowiki>http://om.ciheam.org/om/pdf/a95/00801334.pdf</nowiki></ref> Notable periods of drought include: 1998-1999, 2007-2008, 1972-1973, 2014, and 2016. <ref name=":2" /><ref name=":3">Abd‐Elhamid, H. F., Zeleňáková, M., Soľáková, T., Saleh, O. K., & El‐Dakak, A. M. (2023). Monitoring flood and drought risks in arid and semi‐arid regions using remote sensing data and standardized precipitation index: A case study of syria. ''Journal of Flood Risk Management'', ''17''(1). <nowiki>https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12961</nowiki> </ref> | The effect of climate change on Syria is reflected primarily by its water scarcity issues. The Middle East is an arid climate, and climate change exacerbates its existing low precipitation levels and susceptibility to drought. Syria’s overall rainfall has decreased over time between 1991 to 2009, particularly in the northwestern portion of the country in the winter and spring.<ref name=":0">Zeleňáková, M., Abd-Elhamid, H. F., Krajníková, K., Smetanková, J., Purcz, P., & Alkhalaf, I. (2022). Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall trends in response to climate change—a case study: Syria. ''Water'', ''14''(10), 1670. <nowiki>https://doi.org/10.3390/w14101670</nowiki> </ref> Reports until 2011 show similar trends, along with increases in average temperatures, which have resulted in extreme droughts.<ref name=":1">''Climate change risk profile - syria''. USAID: From the American People. (n.d.). <nowiki>https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/2017_USAID_GEMS_Climate%20Change%20Risk%20Profile_Syria.pdf</nowiki> </ref> These periods of drought have also grown in frequency and severity from the late 1990s onwards, with some lasting up to 200 days.<ref name=":2">Skaf M., Mathbout S. Drought changes over the last five decades in Syria. In: López-Francos A. (comp.), López-Francos A. (collab.). ''Economics of drought and drought preparedness in a climate change context'' . Zaragoza: CIHEAM / FAO / ICARDA / GDAR / CEIGRAM / MARM, 2010. p. 107-112. (Options Méditerranéennes: Series A. Séminaires Méditerranéens; n. 95). 2. International Conference on Drought Management, 2010/03/04-06, Istanbul (Turkey). <nowiki>http://om.ciheam.org/om/pdf/a95/00801334.pdf</nowiki></ref> Notable periods of drought include: 1998-1999, 2007-2008, 1972-1973, 2014, and 2016. <ref name=":2" /><ref name=":3">Abd‐Elhamid, H. F., Zeleňáková, M., Soľáková, T., Saleh, O. K., & El‐Dakak, A. M. (2023). Monitoring flood and drought risks in arid and semi‐arid regions using remote sensing data and standardized precipitation index: A case study of syria. ''Journal of Flood Risk Management'', ''17''(1). <nowiki>https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12961</nowiki> </ref> | ||
Revision as of 02:51, 6 November 2024
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The effects of global climate change in Syria are considerable. It has adverse effects on the livelihoods of the people as well as its environment (CITE). Climate change-induced droughts, water shortages, temperature rises and soil degradation affect particularly agriculture. The Syrian Arab Republic, as a developing and non-industrialized country that located in arid to semi-arid region. Desertification, which has historically been an issue in the region, is accelerating due to climate change. (CITE) Water scarcity and droughts have become more severe, leading to crises with supplying populations and agriculture. Syria has ratified the Paris Treaty, and submitted its Nationally Determined Contributions and focus on both adaptation and mitigation measures for the period 2020-2030. While it has contributed to only 0.1% of global emissions, it is highly vulnerable to climate change.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Syria prepared it first national communication on climate change in 2010. Its total GHG emissions reached 79.07 TGCO2 eq in 2005. The emissions originated mainly in the energy sector (73%), followed by agriculture sector (18%). Indeed, these two sectors contributed to more than 90% of all emissions in Syria. , EXPAND DISCUSSION HERE- mainly come from electricity generation, from oil and gas use.
Impact on the Natural Environment
Temperature and Weather Changes
There is regional and seasonal variability of droughts in Syria. Autumn seasons have experienced slight increases in rainfall, where critical agricultural seasons such as winter and spring have steadily declined. Additionally, the Southwestern portion of the country, near to the Mediterranean, has experienced minor increases in rainfall, while the Northwestern portion has steadily declined. Drought risks have been found to be greatest in areas such as Al Qadmus. he Syrian Drought, from 2006-2011, is one of the worst in the region’s history, and led to widespread agricultural failures, especially in the northeastern portion of the country. Farming and herding communities were deeply affected. The crisis compelled many rural Syrians to migrate to cities. While the period of time is consistent with decreasing rainfall data, some studies argue that the Syrian Drought was not a part of long term drying trends attributed to climate change
ADD heatwave risks
Water Resources
The effect of climate change on Syria is reflected primarily by its water scarcity issues. The Middle East is an arid climate, and climate change exacerbates its existing low precipitation levels and susceptibility to drought. Syria’s overall rainfall has decreased over time between 1991 to 2009, particularly in the northwestern portion of the country in the winter and spring. Reports until 2011 show similar trends, along with increases in average temperatures, which have resulted in extreme droughts. These periods of drought have also grown in frequency and severity from the late 1990s onwards, with some lasting up to 200 days. Notable periods of drought include: 1998-1999, 2007-2008, 1972-1973, 2014, and 2016.
Syria’s water scarcity due to drought is likely to continue intensifying, aligning with IPCC predictions of reduced rainfall in the Mediterranean. Between 2021 to 2050, temperatures could increase by approximately 1.6-2°C, with precipitation dropping by approximately 11% in the winter and 8% in the spring. By 2070-2099, temperatures could rise by 4°C, with an overall decrease of 22% in annual precipitation across the region. These reports also predict a 25-27% reduction in runoff, resulting in prolonged dry spells, coastal flooding, and intensified dust storms. The Figeh Spring, a critical water source near Damascus, Syria, is predicted to decrease its peak spring discharge by 20% by 2050, and up to 50% by the end of the century. Reduced recharge due to less snow and higher evapotranspiration could lead to a 9-30% decrease in annual discharge by the century’s end. The decline of Figeh Spring’s water output poses risks for Damascus’ water supply.
Impacts on People
Agriculture
Climate change’s influence on drought periods have had effects on Syria’s agricultural systems. Only 10% of Syria’s farmland is irrigated, with its remaining portion relying on rainfall. Declining rainfall, poor irrigation practices, and government neglect of rural areas weakened food security and employment. Wheat production, for example, fell significantly, forcing Syria to import it for the first time. This severe strain on Syria’s agriculture sector is due to climate change-driven drought, resulting in intensified water scarcity. Projected climate changes could further reduce agricultural productivity and increase soil salinity. This is especially true for areas such as the Fertile Crescent, an area crucial for agriculture, where decreased precipitation has resulted in major crop losses. Syria’s unsustainable use of water resources and depleted river levels have long presented risks, with future climate trends likely to worsen groundwater depletion and drive greater reliance on rainfall.
Climate change has caused considerable damage to the livelihood of Syrian farmers. Droughts and desertification have caused a massive exodus of around 1.5 million people from rural agricultural communities to urban environments. These droughts, combined with government mismanagement, caused roughly 800,000 farmers to lose their livelihoods. The economic impacts of climate change on Syria are also projected to be devastating, with predictions stating that any given Syrian household, rural or urban, stands to lose 1.6 to 2.8 percent of their welfare annually due to climate change. The poorest groups of farmers have the least amount of resources to recover from droughts. Therefore, they are disproportionately affected by water shortages. Moreover, they take longer to recover financially.
Human Health
Syria’s climate-related impacts may worsen nutrition due to food insecurity related to agricultural productivity losses. Waterborne diseases may also increase, with risks of malaria and vector-borne diseases caused by shifting climates and increases in drought-resilient rodent populations.
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Conflict
The major drought in early 2000s affected agricultural production Economic factors have driven force of unrest, along with their failure to address a rising humanitarian crisis. The discontent in rural areas went back several years before the major drought. Syrian media outlets were also a factor, as they excluded coverage of the drought and its economic and political consequences. More comprehensively, climate change, poor water management, and lack of governmental support were all major elements that eventually led to the Syrian civil war.
Mitigation
Syria has moderate fossil fuel reserves, including oil and natural gas, though both contribute to emissions and therefore climate change. There have been significant efforts to expand natural gas for electricity production. Fossil fuels in the past and in modern day dominate energy sources, though hydropower is also a dominant source in Syria’s energy profile. Renewable energy has been increasingly considered for long-term sustainability. (ADD THE IMPACT OF WAR after 2011 on destruction of infrastructure)
Syria has poor electricity infrastructure which lacks capacity to endure extreme weather events such as heat waves, which are projected to worsen. Syria’s demand for cooling systems has also increased with urbanization, population growth, and rising temperatures.
Adaptation
Syria has high potential for utilization of solar energy, with average irradiance levels about 5 kWh/m²/day. Solar water heating systems have been in use, and there have also been plans to expand photovoltaic systems for both residential and rural applications. The Wind Atlas for Syria shows promising wing speeds in central, southern, and coastal areas. With these speeds, Syria has the potential to produce 85,000 MW of wind energy. Biomass resources, including animal and agricultural waste, are sufficient to produce approximately 357 million m³ of biogas annually. While hydropower energy sources are significant, it is ongoingly limited by low precipitation and reliance on international rivers.
Conflict
Climate change induced drought is debatedly considered an amplifier of social and political conflict. Droughts have added pressure on communities in Syria, especially during the severe drought from 2006-2011. Droughts have reduced Syria’s agricultural output, which in the five year drought pushed approximately 1.5 million rural residents to cities. The migration of over a million people, as well as poor governmental response, increased urban tensions. Rural communities were unprepared for this drought, which was considered the worst in a century, due to the government’s shift in the 2000s away from agriculture and toward privatization and crony capitalism. This reduced rural support and accelerated urbanization. Such factors resulted in increased social and political tensions, contributing to underlying discontent which eventually led to the Syrian civil war. However, some studies do not substantiate the role of climate change as a “threat multiplier” in Syria’s civil war.
Policy
Syria has a number of climate policies which it is involved in, with some being through the UNFCCC. This includes the 2010 Greenhouse Gas Inventory. EXPAND
References
- ^ UNFCCC Syrian Arab Republic (2018). "Nationally Determined Contributions" (PDF).
- The International Energy Agency (2022). "Syria".
- ^ Zeleňáková, M., Abd-Elhamid, H. F., Krajníková, K., Smetanková, J., Purcz, P., & Alkhalaf, I. (2022). Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall trends in response to climate change—a case study: Syria. Water, 14(10), 1670. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14101670
- ^ Abd‐Elhamid, H. F., Zeleňáková, M., Soľáková, T., Saleh, O. K., & El‐Dakak, A. M. (2023). Monitoring flood and drought risks in arid and semi‐arid regions using remote sensing data and standardized precipitation index: A case study of syria. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 17(1). https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12961
- ^ Kelley, Colin (2 March 2015). "Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought". PNAS. 112 (11) – via PNAS.
- ^ Selby, Jan; Dahi, Omar; Fröhlich, Christiane; Hulme, Mike (September 2017). "Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited". Political Geography. 60: 232–244 – via Science Direct.
- ^ Climate change risk profile - syria. USAID: From the American People. (n.d.). https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/2017_USAID_GEMS_Climate%20Change%20Risk%20Profile_Syria.pdf
- ^ Skaf M., Mathbout S. Drought changes over the last five decades in Syria. In: López-Francos A. (comp.), López-Francos A. (collab.). Economics of drought and drought preparedness in a climate change context . Zaragoza: CIHEAM / FAO / ICARDA / GDAR / CEIGRAM / MARM, 2010. p. 107-112. (Options Méditerranéennes: Series A. Séminaires Méditerranéens; n. 95). 2. International Conference on Drought Management, 2010/03/04-06, Istanbul (Turkey). http://om.ciheam.org/om/pdf/a95/00801334.pdf
- ^ Smiatek, Gerhard; Kaspar, Severin; Kunstmann, Harald (1 April 2013). "Hydrological Climate Change Impact Analysis for the Figeh Spring near Damascus, Syria". Journal of Hydrometeorology. 14 (2): 577–593 – via American Meteorological Society.
- ^ Akhmedkhodjaeva, Nodira (2 November 2024). "Drought in Syria" (PDF). The Aleppo Project.
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: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ "Global and Local Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Syria and Options for Adaptation". International Food Policy Research Institute: 1–64. June 2011 – via Cgiar.
- Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Breisinger, Clemens; Verner, Dorte; Zhu, Tingju, eds. (2012). "Droughts in Syria: An Assessment of Impacts and Options for Improving the Resilience of the Poor". Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture. Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture 51 (2012). doi:10.22004/ag.econ.155471.
- ^ de Châtel, Francesca (2019). Green Planet Blues (6 ed.). Routledge. pp. 1–19.
- ^ Hamzeh, Ali (30 April 2004). "Overview of the Syrian Energy Profile" (PDF). Beirut Regional Collaboration Workshop on Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Technology – via RersearchGate.
- IPCC 6th Assessment Report https://skidmoreess.slack.com/files/UCPBSB5FF/F07MP9V7M46/ipcc_ar6_wgii_fullreport.pdf