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			They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle
	{{otheruses4|the assault phase of Operation Overlord|the entire Normandy Campaign|Normandy Campaign}}
	{{Infobox Military Conflict
	|conflict=D-Day
	|partof=]
	|image=]
	|caption=Assault landing one of the first waves at Omaha Beach as photographed by Robert F. Sargent. The ] caption identifies the unit as Company E, 16th Infantry, ].
	|date=], ]
	|place=], ]
	|result=Decisive Allied victory
	|combatant1=<!-- France and Poland are not included here because their armored divisions weren't involved until after the landings. They ARE listed in the infobox for ] which is where info regarding the Normandy buildup/breakout is meant to go. --><!-- countries are in alphabetical order to avoid any arguments, in any other order they show list of importance etc which can cause to arguments etc -->{{flag|Canada|1921}}<br />{{flag|United Kingdom}}<br />{{flag|United States|1912}}
	|combatant2={{flag|Nazi Germany}}
	|commander1={{flagicon|United States|1912}} ]<br />(])<br />{{flagicon|United Kingdom}} ] (land)<br />{{flagicon|United Kingdom}} ] (sea)<br />{{flagicon|United Kingdom}} ] (air) <br />{{flagicon|Canada|1921}} ] (Canadian 1st Army) <br />{{flagicon|United States|1912}} ] (U.S. 1st Army) <br />{{flagicon|United Kingdom}} ] (UK 2nd Army)<br />
	|commander2={{flagicon|Nazi Germany}} ] (OB WEST)<br />{{flagicon|Nazi Germany}} ] (])<br />{{flagicon|Nazi Germany}} ] (])
	|strength1=155,000<ref name="gilbert1">"By midnight, 155,000 Allied troops were already ashore" {{cite book|title=The Second World War|date=1989|accessdate=2007-10-10|pages=534|isbn=9-780805-017885}}</ref>
	|strength2=380,000 (by ])<ref>Zetterling, p. 32: "When Operation Cobra was launched, the Germans had brought to Normandy about 410,000 men in divisions and non-divisional combat units. If this is multiplied by 1.19 we arrive at approximately 490,000 soldiers. However, until ], casualties amounted to 116,863, while only 10,078 replacements had arrived."</ref>
	|casualties1='''United States''': 1,465 dead, 5,138 wounded, missing or captured;<br />'''United Kingdom''': 2,700 dead, wounded or captured;<br />'''Canada''': 340 dead; 621 wounded or captured;<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.ddaymuseum.co.uk/faq.htm#casualities |title=Frequently Asked Questions for D-Day and the Battle of Normandy |accessdate=2007-11-10 |format= |work=D-Day Museum, Portsmouth }} Note that casualties are for 6 June 1944 only.</ref>
	|casualties2='''Nazi Germany''': Between 4,000 and 9,000 dead, wounded or captured<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.ddaymuseum.co.uk/faq.htm#casualities |title=Frequently Asked Questions for D-Day and the Battle of Normandy |accessdate=2007-11-10 |format= |work=D-Day Museum, Portsmouth }} Note that casualties are for 6 June 1944 only.</ref>
	}}
	{{Campaignbox Normandy}}
	{{Campaignbox Western Europe (1944-1945)}}
	{{Campaignbox Western Front (World War II)}}
			There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.
	The '''Battle of Normandy''', codenamed '''Operation Overlord''', was the Allied '''invasion of Normandy''', part of the ]. It began on ], ] (commonly known as ]), and is held to end on ], 1944, with ]<ref name="keegan2">{{cite book|last=Keegan|first=John|title=The Second World War|pages=307}}</ref>. ], Operation Overlord remains the largest seaborne ] in history<ref>{{cite video|people=Ian Holm|medium=Documentary|publisher=BBC|location=UK|time=49:45|quote=The fleet of ships now embarking on the 24 hour journey to France is the greatest armada the world has ever seen.}}</ref>, involving over 156,000 troops crossing the ] from ] to ]<ref name="gilbert1"/>. ''']''' was the codename given to the initial naval assault phase of Operation Overlord; its mission, to gain a foothold on the continent.
			This has been the obligatory monthly sports post.
	Allied land forces that saw combat in Normandy on D-Day itself came from ], the ] and the ]. Substantial ] and ] also participated in the battle after the assault phase, and there were also contingents from ], ], ], ], and ].<ref>{{cite book|last=Williams|first=Jeffery|title=The Long Left Flank}}</ref> Other Allied nations participated in the naval and air forces.
			Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia
	The Normandy invasion began with overnight ] and ] landings, massive ], ], and an early morning ] phase began on ]. The "D-Day" forces deployed from bases along the south coast of England, the most important of these being ].<ref name="keegan2">{{cite book|last=Keegan|first=John|title=The Second World War|date=1989|accessdate=2007-10-12|isbn=9-780712-673488}}</ref>
			dashed off by dday at 8:33 PM View blog reactions
	==Allied preparations==
	], ] on the evening of ], ].]]
	{{main|Normandy Campaign#Allied Preparations}}
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	The objective of the operation was to create a ] that would be anchored in the city of Caen (and later Cherbourg when its deep-water port would be captured). As long as Normandy could be secured, the Western European campaign and the downfall of Nazi Germany could begin. About 6,900 vessels would be involved in the invasion, under the command of ] (who had been directly involved in the North African and Italian landings), including 4,100 ]. A total of 12,000 aircraft under ] ] were to support the landings, including 1,000 transports to fly in the parachute troops; 10,000 tons of bombs would be dropped against the German defenses, and 14,000 attack ] would be flown.
			Elections Have Consequences
			John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:
	Some of the more unusual Allied preparations included armored vehicles specially adapted for the assault. Developed under the leadership of Maj. Gen. ] (Montgomery’s brother-in-law), these vehicles (called '']'') included "swimming" ], the ] flame throwing tank, mine-clearing tanks, bridge-laying tanks and road-laying tanks and the ''Armored Vehicle, ]'' (])&ndash;equipped with a large-caliber ] for destroying concrete emplacements. Some prior testing of these vehicles had been undertaken at ] in ], England. The majority would be operated by small teams of the British ] attached to the various formations.
	], a southern English coastal town, en route to board landing ships for the invasion of France.]]
			Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.
	Allied forces rehearsed their roles for D-Day months before the invasion. On ], ], in south ] on the English coast, 749 U.S. soldiers and sailors were killed when ] surprised one of these landing exercises, ].
			The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.
	In the months leading up to the invasion, the Allies conducted a deception operation, ]. The Allies prepared a massive deception plan, called ].
			The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions
	There were several leaks prior to or on D-Day. Through the ], the Germans obtained documents containing references to Overlord, but these documents lacked all detail.<ref>Keegan, John. The Second World War, p 279. ISBN 014011341X</ref> ] agents, such as ] (code named Garbo), played an important role in convincing the German High Command that Normandy was at best a diversionary attack. Another such leak was Gen. ]'s radio message after D-Day. He, unlike all the other leaders, stated that this invasion was the real invasion. This had the potential to ruin the Allied deceptions Fortitude North and Fortitude South. For example, ] referred to the landings as the initial invasion. The Germans did not believe de Gaulle and waited too long to move in extra units against the Allies.
			Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.
	==Allied Order of Battle==
	]
	The order of battle was approximately as follows, east to west:
			Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.
	===British sector (Second Army)===
	*] was delivered by ] and ] to the east of the ] to protect the left flank. The division contained 7,900 men.<ref name="DDayFAQ">{{cite web|title=Britannica guide to D-Day 1944|url=http://www.britannica.com/dday/article-236192|authorlink=John Keegan|accessdate=2007-10-30}}</ref>
	* ] comprising No.3, No.4, No.6 and ] ] landed at ] in ''Queen Red'' sector (leftmost). No.4 Commando were augmented by 1 and 8 Troop (both French) of No.10 (Inter Allied) Commando.
	*], ] and the ] on ''']''', from Ouistreham to ].
	* No.41(RM) Commando (part of ]) landed on the far right of Sword Beach, where 29,000 men would land<ref>{{cite web|title=Britannica guide to D-Day 1944|url=http://www.britannica.com/dday/article-236192|authorlink=John Keegan|accessdate=2007-10-30}}</ref>.
	*], ] and ] on ''']''', from ] to ], where 21,400 troops would land.<ref name="DDayFAQ"/>
	* No.46(RM) Commando (part of 4th Special Service Brigade) at ''Juno'' to scale the cliffs on the left side of the Orne River estuary and destroy a battery. (Battery fire proved negligible so No.46 were kept off-shore as a floating reserve and landed on D+1).
	* ], ] and ], comprising of 25,000 men landing on ''']'''<ref>{{cite web|title=Britannica guide to D-Day 1944|url=http://www.britannica.com/dday/article-9389939|authorlink=John Keegan|accessdate=2007-10-30}}</ref>, from Courseulles to ].
	* No.47(RM) Commando (part of 4th Special Service Brigade) on the West flank of Gold beach.
	* ] operated specialist armour ("]") for mine-clearing, recovery and assault tasks. These were distributed around the Anglo-Canadian beaches.
	Overall, the British contingent would consist of 83,115 troops (61,715 of them British)<ref name="DDayFAQ">{{cite web|url=http://www.ddaymuseum.co.uk/faq.htm|title=D-Day FAQ|accessdate=2007-10-30}}</ref>.
			It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.
	===U.S. Sector (First Army)===
	]
	*], ] and ] making up 34,250 troops for ''']''', from ] to ].<ref name="DDayFAQ"/><ref name="TOCTWW2c">Map 81, {{cite encyclopedia|editors=M.R.D. Foot, I.C.B. Dear|title=The Oxford Companion To World War II|pages=663|isbn=9-780192-806666|publisher=Oxford University Press|date=2005|accessdate=2007-11-15}}</ref>
	* 2nd and 5th ] Battalions at ] (The 5th diverted to Omaha).<ref name="TOCTWW2c"/>
	*], ] and the 359th ] of the ] comprising of 23,250 men landing on ''']''', around Pouppeville and ].<ref name="TOCTWW2c"/>
	*] by parachute around ] to support Utah Beach landings.<ref name="TOCTWW2c"/>
	*] by parachute around ], protecting the right flank. They had originally been tasked with dropping further west, in the middle part of the ], allowing the sea-landing forces to their east easier access across the peninsula, and preventing the Germans from reinforcing the north part of the peninsula. The plans were later changed to move them much closer to the beachhead, as at the last minute the ] was found to be in the area.<ref name="johnhbradley1">{{cite book|title=The Second World War: Europe and the Mediterranean|url=http://books.google.com/books?id=HP3-9NNz71sC&pg=PA290&lpg=PA290&ots=lzKtqLPDHv&output=html&sig=kOpC3DroIRJa_SduUsfycSA2vHo|last=Bradley|first=John H.|publisher=Square One Publishers|pages=290|date=2002|isbn=0757001629|accessdate=2007-11-16}}</ref><ref name="TOCTWW2c"/>
			George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.
	In total, the Americans contributed 73,000 men (15,500 were airborne).<ref name="DDayFAQ"/>
	===Naval participants===
	{{main|Operation Neptune}}
	], ].]]
	The Invasion Fleet was drawn from 8 different navies, comprising 6,939 vessels: 1,213 warships, 4,126 transport vessels (landing ships and ]), and 736 ancillary craft and 864 merchant vessels.<ref name="DDayFAQ"/>
			Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:
	The overall commander of the Allied Naval Expeditionary Force, providing close protection and bombardment at the beaches, was Admiral Sir ]. The Allied Naval Expeditionary Force was divided into two Naval Task Forces: Western (Rear-Admiral ]) and Eastern (Rear-Admiral Sir ]).
			"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."
	The warships provided cover for the transports against the enemy&mdash;whether in the form of surface ]s, ]s, or as an aerial attack&mdash;and gave support to the landings through shore bombardment. These ships included the Allied Task Force "O".
			You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.
	==German Order of Battle==
	The number of military forces at the disposal of Nazi Germany, reached its peak during 1944, tanks on the east front peaked at 5,202 in November 1944, total aircraft in the Luftwaffe inventory peaked at 5,041 in December 1944. By D-Day 157 German divisions were stationed in the Soviet Union, 6 in Finland, 12 in Norway, 6 in Denmark, 9 in Germany, 21 in the Balkans, 26 in Italy and 59 in France, Belgium and the Netherlands.<ref>{{cite book|title=The Struggle for Europe|last=Wilmot|first=Chester|year=1952|isbn=1853266779}}</ref> However, these statistics are somewhat misleading since a significant number of the divisions in the east were depleted; German records indicate that the average personnel complement was at about 50% in the spring of 1944.<ref>Tippelskirch, Kurt von, Gechichte der Zweiten Weltkrieg. 1956</ref>
			Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.
	===Atlantic Wall===
	{{main|Atlantic Wall|English Channel}}
	]
	Standing in the way of the Allies was the ], a crossing which had eluded the ] and ]'s Navy. Compounding the invasion efforts was the extensive ], ordered by ] as part of ]. Believing that any forthcoming landings would be timed for high tide (this caused the landings to be timed for low tide), Rommel had the entire wall fortified with tank top turrets and extensive barbed wire, and laid a million mines to deter landing craft. The sector which was attacked was guarded by four divisions.
	====Divisional Areas====
	* ] defended the Eastern end of the landing zones, including most of the British and Canadian beaches. This division, as well as the 709th, included ] who were not considered fit for active duty on the ], usually for medical reasons, and various other nationalities such as conscripted ] and former Soviet prisoners-of-war who had agreed to fight for the Germans rather than endure the harsh conditions of German ] camps.
	* ] defended the area between approximately Bayeux and Carentan, including Omaha beach. Unlike the other divisions this one was well-trained and contained many combat veterans. The division had been formed in November 1943 with the help of cadres from the disbanded 321st Division, which had been destroyed in the Soviet Union that same year. The 352nd had many troops who had seen action on the eastern front and on the 6th, had been carrying out anti-invasion exercises.
	*] (''Luftlande'' &ndash; air transported) (Generalmajor ]), comprising the ] and ]. This was a regular infantry division, trained, and equipped to be transported by air (i.e. transportable artillery, few heavy support weapons) located in the interior of the ], including the drop zones of the ]. The attached ] (Oberstleutnant ]) had been rebuilt as a part of the ] stationed in ].
	*] (Generalleutnant ]), comprising the ], ] (both with four battalions, but the 729th 4th and the 739th 1st and 4th being Ost, these two regiments had no regimental support companies either), and ]. This coastal defense division protected the eastern, and northern (including Cherbourg) coast of the Cotentin Peninsula, including the Utah beach landing zone. Like the 716th, this division comprised a number of "Ost" units who were provided with German leadership to manage them.
			Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.
	====Adjacent Divisional Areas====
	Other divisions occupied the areas around the landing zones, including:
	*] (Generalleutnant ]), comprising the ] (two battalions), ], and ]. This coastal defense division protected the western coast of the Cotentin Peninsula.
	*], comprising the ], and ]. This division defended the western part of the ].
	* ] (Oberstleutnant Freiherr von und zu Aufsess), comprising three ] battalions.
			UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:
	===Armoured reserves===
	Rommel's defensive measures were also frustrated by a dispute over armoured doctrine. In addition to his two army groups, von Rundstedt also commanded the headquarters of ''Panzer Group West'' under General ] (usually referred to as ''von Geyr''). This formation was nominally an administrative HQ for von Rundstedt's armoured and mobile formations, but it was later to be renamed ] and brought into the line in Normandy. Von Geyr and Rommel disagreed over the deployment and use of the vital Panzer divisions.
	Rommel recognised that the Allies would possess air superiority and would be able to harass his movements from the air. He therefore proposed that the armoured formations be deployed close to the invasion beaches. In his words, it was better to have one Panzer division facing the invaders on the first day, than three Panzer divisions three days later when the Allies would already have established a firm beachhead. Von Geyr argued for the standard doctrine that the Panzer formations should be concentrated in a central position around Paris and Rouen, and deployed ''en masse'' against the main Allied beachhead when this had been identified.
			Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.
	The argument was eventually brought before Hitler for arbitration. He characteristically imposed an unworkable compromise solution. Only three Panzer divisions were given to Rommel, too few to cover all the threatened sectors. The remainder, nominally under Von Geyr's control, were actually designated as being in "] Reserve". Only three of these were deployed close enough to intervene immediately against any invasion of Northern France, the other four were dispersed in southern France and the Netherlands. Hitler reserved to himself the authority to move the divisions in OKW Reserve, or commit them to action. On ], many Panzer division commanders were unable to move because Hitler had not given the necessary authorisation, and his staff refused to wake him upon news of the invasion.
	====Army Group B Reserve====
	*The ] (Generalmajor Edgar Feuchtinger) was deployed near ] as a mobile striking force as part of the ] reserve. However, Rommel placed it so close to the coastal defenses that, under ]s in case of invasion, several of its infantry and anti-aircraft units would come under the orders of the fortress divisions on the coast, reducing the effective strength of the division.
			Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles.
	The other two armoured divisions over which Rommel had operational control, the ] and ], were deployed near the Pas de Calais in accordance with German views about the likely Allied landing sites. Neither was moved from the Pas de Calais for at least fourteen days after the invasion.
			Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland
	====OKW Reserve====
	The other mechanized divisions capable of intervening in Normandy were retained under the direct control of the German Armed Forces HQ (]) and were initially denied to Rommel:
			dashed off by dday at 12:33 PM View blog reactions
	Four divisions were deployed to Normandy within seven days of the invasion:
	*The ] (Brigadeführer ]) was stationed to the southeast. Its officers and ] (this division had a very weak core of NCOs in Normandy with only slightly more than 50% of its authorised strength<ref>Zetterling, page 350</ref>) were long-serving veterans, but the junior soldiers had all been recruited directly from the ] movement at the age of seventeen in 1943. It was to acquire a reputation for ferocity and war crimes in the coming battle.
	*Further to the southwest was the ] (General major ]), an elite unit originally formed by amalgamating the instructing staff at various training establishments. Not only were its personnel of high quality, but the division also had unusually high numbers of the latest and most capable armoured vehicles.
	*] was refitting in Belgium on the Netherlands border after being decimated on the Eastern Front.
	*] (Generalmajor Werner Ostendorff) was based on ], south of the ], and although equipped with Assault guns instead of tanks and lacking in other transport (such that one battalion each from the 37th and 38th Panzergrenadier Regiments moved by bicycle), it provided the first major counterattack against the American advance at Carentan on ].
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	Three other divisions (the ], which had been refitting at ] in Southern France, and the ] and ] which had been in transit from the Eastern Front on ]), were committed to battle in Normandy around twenty-one days after the first landings.
			Goalposts Flying Down The Field
			Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.
	One more armoured division (the ]) saw action only after the American breakout from the beachhead. Two other armoured divisions which had been in the west on ] (the ] and ]) did not see action in Normandy.
			And yet:
	==Landings==
	Just prior to the invasion, General Eisenhower transmitted a now-historic message to all members of the Allied Expeditionary Force. It read, in part, "You are about to embark upon a great crusade, toward which we have striven these many months." In his pocket was an unused statement to be read in case the invasion failed.<ref>{{cite video|people=Ian Holm|medium=Documentary|publisher=BBC|location=UK|time=56:03-56:55|}}</ref>
	===Weather forecast===
	] synchronising their watches in front of an ].]]
	The final factor in determining the date of the landing was the anticipated weather. By this stage of the war, the German ]s had largely been driven from the Atlantic,<ref name="crosschannelattackii">{{cite book| title = Cross Channel Attack| last = Harrison| first = Gordon| publisher = Dept. of the Army| date = 2002| location = US Army Center Of Military History| pages = 211| url = http://www.army.mil/cmh/books/wwii/7-4/7-4_6.HTM| isbn = 0160018811 }}</ref> and their weather stations in ] had been closed down. The Allies possessed an advantage in knowledge of conditions in the Atlantic, which was to prove decisive.
			With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.
	A full moon was required both for light for the aircraft pilots and for the ], effectively limiting the window of opportunity for mounting the invasion to only a few days in each month. Eisenhower had tentatively selected ] as the date for the assault. Most of May had fine weather, but this deteriorated in early June. On ], conditions were clearly unsuitable for a landing; wind and high seas would make it impossible to launch landing craft, and low clouds would prevent aircraft finding their targets. The Allied troop convoys already at sea were forced to take shelter in bays and inlets on the south coast of Britain.
			Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.
	It seemed possible that everything would have to be canceled, and the troops returned to their camps (a vast undertaking, because the enormous movement of follow-up formations was already proceeding). The next full moon period would be nearly a month away. At a vital meeting on ], Eisenhower's chief meteorologist (Group Captain ]) forecast a brief improvement for ]. Montgomery and Eisenhower's Chief of Staff General ] wished to proceed with the invasion. Leigh Mallory was doubtful, but Admiral Ramsay believed that conditions would be marginally favorable. On the strength of Stagg's forecast, Eisenhower ordered the invasion to proceed.
			The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.
	The Germans meanwhile took comfort from the existing poor conditions and believed no invasion would be possible for several days. Some troops stood down, and many senior officers were absent. Rommel, for example, took a few days' leave with his wife and family, while dozens of division, regimental, and battalion commanders were away from their posts at war games.
	===French Resistance===
	The various factions and circuits of the ] were included in the plan for ''Overlord''. Through a London-based headquarters which supposedly embraced all resistance groups, ] or ], the British ] orchestrated a massive campaign of sabotage tasking the various Groups with attacking ] lines, ambushing roads, or destroying ]s or ]s. The resistance was alerted to carry out these tasks by means of the ''messages personnels'', transmitted by the ] in its French service from London. Several hundred of these were regularly transmitted, ] the few of them that were really significant.
			Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.
	Among the stream of apparently meaningless messages broadcast by the BBC at 21:00 CET on ], were coded instructions such as ''Les carottes sont cuites'' (The carrots are cooked) and ''Les dés sont jetés'' (The dice have been thrown).<ref>La Seconde Guerre Mondiale – Hors-série Images Doc ISSN 0995-1121 – June 2004</ref>
			The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.
	One famous pair of these messages is often mistakenly stated to be a general call to arms by the Resistance. A few days before D-Day, the (slightly misquoted) first line of ] poem, "Chanson d'Automne", was transmitted. ''"Les sanglots longs des violons de l'automne"''<ref>Verlaine originally wrote, "'''''Blessent''''' ''mon coeur''" (wound my heart). The BBC replaced Verlaine's original words with the slightly modified lyrics of a song entitled ''Verlaine (Chanson d'Autome)'' by ].</ref><ref name="Foot143">M.R.D. Foot, ''"SOE"'', BBC Publications 1984, ISBN 0-563-20193-2. p. 143</ref> (''Long sobs of autumn violins'') alerted the resistance of the ''"Ventriloquist"'' network in the ] region to attack rail targets within the next few days. The second line, ''"Bercent mon coeur d'une langueur monotone"'' (''soothes my heart with a monotonous languor''), transmitted late on ], meant that the attack was to be mounted immediately.
			Quite a pickle, ay?
	Josef Götz, the head of the signals section of the German intelligence service (the ]) in Paris, had discovered the meaning of the second line of Verlaine's poem, and no less than fourteen other executive orders they heard late on ]. His section rightly interpreted them to mean that invasion was imminent or underway, and they alerted their superiors and all Army commanders in France. However, they had issued a similar warning a month before, when the Allies had begun invasion preparations and alerted the Resistance, but then stood down because of a forecast of bad weather. The SD having given this false alarm, their genuine alarm was ignored or treated as merely routine. Fifteenth Army HQ passed the information on to its units; Seventh Army ignored it.<ref name="Foot143"/>
			By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.
	In addition to the tasks given to the Resistance as part of the invasion effort, the Special Operations Executive planned to reinforce the Resistance with three-man liaison parties, under ]. The ''Jedburgh'' parties would coordinate and arrange supply drops to the Maquis groups in the German rear areas. Also operating far behind German lines and frequently working closely with the Resistance, although not under SOE, were larger parties from the British, French and Belgian units of the ] brigade.
	===Airborne operations===
	The success of the amphibious landings depended on the establishment of a secure lodgment from which to expand the beachhead to allow the build up of a well-supplied force capable of breaking out. The amphibious forces were especially vulnerable to strong enemy counterattacks before the build up of sufficient forces in the beachhead could be accomplished. To slow or eliminate the enemy's ability to organise and launch counterattacks during this critical period, ] were utilised to seize key objectives, such as bridges, road crossings, and terrain features, particularly on the eastern and western flanks of the landing areas. The airborne landings some distance behind the beaches were also intended to ease the egress of the amphibious forces off the beaches, and in some cases to neutralise German coastal defence batteries and more quickly expand the area of the beachhead. The U.S. 82nd and 101st Airborne Divisions were assigned to objectives west of Utah Beach. The British 6th Airborne Division was assigned to similar objectives on the eastern flank.
			Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.
	====British airborne landings====
	{{main|Operation Tonga}}
	East of the landing area, the open, flat, ] between the ] and ] Rivers was ideal for counterattacks by German armour. However, the landing area and floodplain were separated by the Orne River, which flowed northeast from ] into the bay of the ]. The only crossing of the Orne River north of Caen was 7&nbsp;kilometres (4.5&nbsp;mi) from the coast, near ] and ]. For the Germans, the crossing provided the only route for a ] on the beaches from the east. For the Allies, the crossing also was vital for any attack on Caen from the east.
			Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.
	The tactical objectives of the ] were (a) to capture intact the bridges of the Bénouville-Ranville crossing, (b) to defend the crossing against the inevitable armoured counter-attacks, (c) to destroy German artillery at the ] battery, which threatened Sword Beach, and (d) to destroy five bridges over the Dives River to further restrict movement of ground forces from the east.
			Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.
	Airborne troops, mostly paratroopers of the ] and ], including the ], began landing after midnight, ] and immediately encountered elements of the ]. At dawn, the Battle Group ] of the ] counterattacked from the south on both sides of the Orne River. By this time the paratroopers had established a defensive perimeter surrounding the ]. Casualties were heavy on both sides, but the airborne troops held. Shortly after noon, they were reinforced by commandos of the ]. By the end of D-Day, 6th Airborne had accomplished each of its objectives. For several days, both British and German forces took heavy casualties as they struggled for positions around the Orne bridgehead. For example, the German 346th Infantry Division broke through the eastern edge of the defensive line on ]. Finally, British paratroopers overwhelmed entrenched ]s in the Battle of ] on ]. The Germans did not seriously threaten the bridgehead again. 6th Airborne remained on the line until it was evacuated in early September.
	====American airborne landings====
	{{Main|American airborne landings in Normandy}}
	] examine a knocked out German ] with a dead German crewman on the gun barrel.]]
	The U.S. 82nd and 101st Airborne Divisions, numbering 13,000 paratroopers, were delivered by 12 troop carrier groups of the IX Troop Carrier Command, were less fortunate in quickly completing their main objectives. To achieve surprise, the drops were routed to approach Normandy from the west. Numerous factors affected their performance, but the primary one was the decision to make a massive parachute drop at night (a tactic not used again for the rest of the war). As a result, 45% of units were widely scattered and unable to rally. Efforts of the early wave of ] teams to mark the landing zones were largely ineffective, and the ] beacons used to guide in the waves of ]s to the drop zones were a flawed system.
			The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious.
	Three regiments of 101st Airborne paratroopers were dropped first, between 00:48 and 01:40, followed by the 82nd Airborne's drops between 01:51 and 02:42. Each operation involved approximately 400 C-47 aircraft. Two pre-dawn glider landings brought in anti-tank guns and support troops for each division. On the evening of D-Day two additional glider landings brought in 2 battalions of artillery and 24 howitzers to the 82nd Airborne. Additional glider operations on ] delivered the 325th Glider Infantry Regiment to the 82nd Airborne, and two large supply parachute drops that date were ineffective.
			Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain
	After 24 hours, only 2,500 troops of the 101st and 2,000 of the 82nd were under the control of their divisions, approximating a third of the force dropped. The dispersal of the American airborne troops, however, had the effect of confusing the Germans and fragmenting their response. In addition, the Germans' defensive flooding, in the early stages, also helped to protect the Americans' southern flank.
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	Paratroopers continued to roam and fight behind enemy lines for days. Many consolidated into small groups, rallied with NCOs or junior officers, and usually were a hodgepodge of men from different companies, battalions, regiments, or even divisions. The 82nd occupied the town of ] early in the morning of ], giving it the claim of the first town liberated in the invasion.
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	===Sword Beach===
			Saturday, November 24, 2007
	{{main|Sword Beach}}
			The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism
	]
			Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.
	The assault on Sword Beach began at about 03:00 with an aerial bombardment of the German coastal defences and artillery sites. The naval bombardment began a few hours later. At 07:30, the first units reached the beach. These were the ]s of 13th/18th Hussars followed closely by the infantry of 8th Brigade.
			The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him.
	On Sword Beach, the regular British infantry came ashore with light casualties. They had advanced about 8 kilometres (5&nbsp;mi) by the end of the day but failed to make some of the deliberately ambitious targets set by Montgomery. In particular, Caen, a major objective, was still in German hands by the end of D-Day, and would remain so until the ], ].
			Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard
	1st Special Service Brigade, under the command of Brigadier The Lord Lovat DSO and MC, went ashore in the second wave led by No.4 Commando with the two French Troops first, as agreed amongst themselves. The 1st Special Service Brigade's landing is famous for having been led by Piper ]. The British and French of No.4 Commando had separate targets in Ouistreham: the French a blockhouse and the Casino, and the British two batteries which overlooked the beach. The blockhouse proved too strong for the Commandos' ] ('''P'''rojector '''I'''nfantry '''A'''nti '''T'''ank) weapons, but the Casino was taken with the aid of a ]. The British Commandos achieved both battery objectives only to find the gun mounts empty and the guns removed. Leaving the mopping-up procedure to the infantry, the Commandos withdrew from Ouistreham to join the other units of their brigade (Nos.3, 6 and ]), moving inland to join-up with the 6th Airborne Division.
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	===Juno Beach===
	{{main|Juno Beach}}
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	The Canadian forces that landed on Juno Beach faced 11 heavy batteries of 155&nbsp;mm guns and 9 medium batteries of 75&nbsp;mm guns, as well as machine-gun nests, pillboxes, other concrete fortifications, and a seawall twice the height of the one at Omaha Beach. The first wave suffered 50% casualties, the second highest of the five D-Day beachheads. The use of armour was successful at Juno, in some instances actually landing ahead of the infantry as intended and helping clear a path inland.<ref>Stacey, C.P. ''Official History of the Canadian Army in the Second World War. Volume III: The Victory Campaign''</ref>
			Friday, November 23, 2007
			The New Meaning Of Probable Cause
			"Do you want a warrant?"
	], ].]]Despite the obstacles, the Canadians were off the beach within hours and beginning their advance inland. The 6th Canadian Armoured Regiment (]) and ] achieved their ] objectives, when they crossed the Caen&ndash;] highway over 15 kilometres (9&nbsp;mi) inland.<ref>Martin, Charles Cromwell ''Battle Diary'' (Dundurn Press, Toronto, 1994) ISBN 1-55002-213-X p.16</ref> The Canadians were the only units to reach their D-Day objectives, although most units fell back a few kilometres to stronger defensive positions. In particular, the Douvres Radar Station was still in German hands, and no link had been established with Sword Beach.
			"Probably."
	By the end of D-Day, 15,000 Canadians had been successfully landed, and the ] had penetrated further into France than any other Allied force, despite having faced strong resistance at the water's edge and later counterattacks on the beachhead by elements of the German 21st and 12th SS ''Hitlerjugend'' Panzer divisions on ] and ].
			"Why?"
	===Gold Beach===
	{{main|Gold Beach}}
			"'Cause."
	At Gold Beach, the casualties were also quite heavy, partly because the swimming Sherman DD tanks were delayed, and the Germans had strongly fortified a village on the beach. However, the 50th (Northumbrian) Infantry Division overcame these difficulties and advanced almost to the outskirts of Bayeux by the end of the day. With the exception of the Canadians at Juno Beach, no division came closer to its objectives than the 50th.
	No.47 (RM) Commando was the last British Commando unit to land and came ashore on ''Gold'' east of Le Hamel. Their task was to proceed inland then turn right (west) and make a 16-kilometre (10&nbsp;mi) march through enemy territory to attack the coastal harbour of ] from the rear. This small port, on the British extreme right, was well sheltered in the chalk cliffs and significant in that it was to be a prime early harbour for supplies to be brought in including fuel by underwater pipe from tankers moored offshore.
			Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.
	===Omaha Beach===
	] landing craft approach ] ], ].]]
	{{main|Omaha Beach}}
			In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.
	] during the Normandy Invasion. General ] is the second man from the left.]]
	]
	Elements of the 1st Infantry Division and 29th Infantry Division faced the veteran German 352nd Infantry Division, one of the best trained on the beaches. Allied intelligence failed to realize that the relatively low-quality 716th Infantry Division (static) had been replaced by the 352nd the previous March. Omaha was also the most heavily fortified beach, with high bluffs defended by funeled mortars, machine guns, and artillery, and the pre-landing aerial and naval bombardment of the bunkers proved to be ineffective. Difficulties in navigation caused the majority of landings to drift eastwards, missing their assigned sectors, and the initial assault waves of tanks, infantry and engineers took heavy casualties. The official record stated that <!--The following is a direct quote from the official record. DO NOT CHANGE IT however much you think it can be improved; we need to quote exactly what was written-->
	"within 10 minutes of the ramps being lowered, <nowiki></nowiki> company had become inert, leaderless and almost incapable of action. Every officer and sergeant had been killed or wounded <nowiki></nowiki> It had become a struggle for survival and rescue". <!--end of direct quote--> Only a few gaps were blown in the beach obstacles, resulting in problems for subsequent landings. The heavily defended draws, the only vehicular routes off the beach, could not be taken and two hours after the first assault the beach was closed for all but infantry landings. Commanders considered abandoning the beachhead, but small units of infantry, often forming ] groups, supported by naval artillery and the surviving tanks, eventually infiltrated the coastal defenses by scaling the bluffs between strongpoints. Further infantry landings were able to exploit the initial penetrations and by the end of the day two isolated footholds had been established. American casualties at Omaha on D-Day numbered around 3,000 out of 34,000 men, most in the first few hours, whilst the defending forces suffered 1,200 killed, wounded or missing. The tenuous beachhead was expanded over the following days, and the original D-Day objectives were accomplished by D+3.
			Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.
	===Pointe du Hoc===
	{{main|Pointe du Hoc}}
	The massive concrete cliff-top gun emplacement at Pointe du Hoc was the target of the 2nd Ranger battalion, commanded by ]. The task was to scale the 30 metre (100 ft) cliffs under enemy fire with ropes and ladders, and then attack and destroy the guns, which were thought to command the Omaha and Utah landing areas. The Ranger commanders did not know that the guns had been moved prior to the attack, and they had to press farther inland to find them but eventually destroyed them. However, the beach fortifications themselves were still vital targets since a single artillery forward observer based there could have called down accurate fire on the U.S. beaches. The Rangers were eventually successful, and captured the fortifications. They then had to fight for 2 days to hold the location, losing more than 60% of their men.
			Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.
	===Utah Beach===
	{{main|Utah Beach}}
			By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT.
	Casualties on Utah Beach, the westernmost landing zone, were the lightest of any beach, with 197 out of the roughly 23,000 troops that landed. The 4th Infantry Division troops landing at Utah Beach found themselves in the wrong positions because of a current that pushed their landing craft to the southeast. Instead of landing at Tare Green and Uncle Red sectors, they came ashore at Victor sector, which was lightly defended, and as a result, relatively little German opposition was encountered. The 4th Infantry Division was able to press inland relatively easily over beach exits that had been seized from the inland side by the 502nd and 506th Parachute Infantry Regiments of the 101st Airborne Division. This was partially by accident, because their planned landing was further down the beach (Brig. Gen. ], the Asst. Commander of 4th Division, upon discovering the landings were off course, was famous for stating "We will start the war from right here.") . By early afternoon, the 4th Infantry Division had succeeded in linking up with elements of the 101st. American casualties were light, and the troops were able to press inward much faster than expected, making it a near-complete success.
			Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping
	==After the landings==
	]
	]
	{{main|Normandy Campaign}}
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	The Allied invasion plans had called for the capture of ], Saint-Lô, ], and ] on the first day, with all the beaches linked except Utah, and Sword (the last linked with paratroopers) and a front line 10 to 16 kilometres (6–10&nbsp;mi) from the beaches. In practice none of these had been achieved. However, overall the casualties had not been as heavy as some had feared (around 10,000 compared to the 20,000 Churchill had estimated), and the bridgeheads had withstood the expected counterattacks.
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	Once the beachhead was established, two artificial ]s were towed across the English Channel in segments and made operational around D+3 (]). One was constructed at ] by British forces, the other at Omaha Beach by American forces. By ], when severe storms interrupted the landing of supplies for several days and destroyed the Omaha harbour, the British had landed 314,547 men, 54,000 vehicles, and 102,000&nbsp;tons of supplies, while the Americans put ashore 314,504 men, 41,000 vehicles, and 116,000&nbsp;tons of supplies.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/USA-E-Supreme/USA-E-Supreme-10.html|title=United States Army in World War II: European Theater of Operations. The Supreme Command, Forrest C. Pogue, CMH Publication 7–1, Office of the chief of military history, Department of the Army, Washington D.C., U.S.A. (1954)}}</ref> Around 9,000&nbsp;tons of ] were landed daily at the Arromanches harbour until the end of August 1944, by which time the port of ] had been secured by the Allies and had begun to return to service.
			The Thing About The Right
			using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.
	==Assessment of the battle==
	]]]
	The Normandy landings were the first successful opposed landings across the English Channel for nine centuries. They were costly in terms of men, but the defeat inflicted on the Germans was one of the largest of the war. Strategically, the campaign led to the loss of the German position in most of France and the secure establishment of a new major front. Allied material weight told heavily in Normandy, as did intelligence and deception plans. The general Allied concept of the battle was sound, drawing on the strengths of both Britain and the United States. German dispositions and leadership were often faulty, despite a credible showing on the ground by many German units. In larger context the Normandy landings helped the Soviets on the Eastern front, who were facing the bulk of the German forces and, to a certain extent, contributed to the shortening of the conflict there.
			I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!"
	Although there was a shortage of artillery ammunition, at no time were the Allies critically short of any necessity. This was a remarkable achievement considering they did not hold a port until Cherbourg fell. By the time of the breakout the Allies also enjoyed a considerable superiority in numbers of troops (approximately 3.5:1) and armored vehicles (approximately 4:1) which helped overcome the natural advantages the terrain gave to the German defenders.
			Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq
	Allied ] efforts were successful beyond expectations. The Operation Fortitude deception before the invasion kept German attention focused on the Pas de Calais, and indeed high-quality German forces were kept in this area, away from Normandy, until July. Prior to the invasion, few German reconnaissance flights took place over Britain, and those that did saw only the dummy staging areas. Ultra decrypts of German communications had been helpful as well, exposing German dispositions and revealing their plans such as the Mortain counterattack.
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	Allied air operations also contributed significantly to the invasion, via close tactical support, interdiction of German lines of communication (preventing timely movement of supplies and reinforcements&mdash;particularly the critical Panzer units), and rendering the Luftwaffe as practically useless in Normandy. Although the impact upon armoured vehicles was less than expected, air activity intimidated these units and cut their supplies.
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	Despite initial heavy losses in the assault phase, Allied morale remained high. Casualty rates among all the armies were tremendous, and the Commonwealth forces had to create a new category – Double Intense – to be able to describe them.
			Black Friday Random Ten
			Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:
	====German leadership====
	German commanders at all levels failed to react to the assault phase in a timely manner. Communications problems exacerbated the difficulties caused by Allied air and naval firepower. Local commanders also seemed unequal to the task of fighting an aggressive defence on the beach, as Rommel envisioned. For example, the commander of the German 352nd Infantry Division failed to capitalise on American difficulty at Omaha, committing his reserves elsewhere when they might have been more profitably used against the American beachhead.
			People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine
	The German High Command remained fixated on the Calais area, and von Rundstedt was not permitted to commit the armored reserve. When it was finally released late in the day, any chance of success was immeasurably more difficult. Overall, despite considerable Allied material superiority, the Germans kept the Allies bottled up in a small bridgehead for nearly two months, aided immeasureably by terrain factors.
			Beercan - Beck
			Come As You Are - Nirvana
			On A Plain - Nirvana
			Down To This - Soul Coughing
			Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova
			Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne
			Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff
			Ready For Action - The Crystal Method
			Thursday - Morphine
			Labels: music, Random Ten
	Although there were several well-known disputes among the Allied commanders, their tactics and strategy were essentially determined by agreement between the main commanders. By contrast, the German leaders were bullied and their decisions interfered with by Hitler, controlling the battle from a distance with little knowledge of local conditions. Field Marshals von Rundstedt and Rommel repeatedly asked Hitler for more discretion but were refused. Von Rundstedt was removed from his command on ] after he bluntly told the Chief of Staff at Hitler's ] (Field Marshal ]) to "Make peace, you idiots!" Rommel was severely injured by Allied aircraft on ].
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	The German commanders also suffered in the quality of the available troops. 60,000 of the 850,000 in Rundstedt's command were raised from the many prisoners of war captured on the east front.<ref name="Six Armies in Normandy">{{cite book
	| last =Keegan
	| first =John
	| authorlink =
	| title =Six Armies in Normandy
	| publisher =]
	| date =1982
	| pages = 61
	| isbn = 0 14 00.5293}}</ref> These "Ost" units had volunteered to fight against Stalin, but when instead unwisely used to defend France against the Western Allies, ended up being unreliable. Many surrendered or deserted at the first available opportunity.
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	Given the Soviets' later domination of Eastern Europe, if the Normandy invasion had not occurred there might conceivably have been a complete occupation of northern and western Europe by communist forces, a contention which is supported by Stalin's statement that the allies introduced their social system as far as their armies could reach. Alternately, Hitler might have deployed more forces to the Eastern Front, conceivably delaying Soviet advance beyond their pre-war border.<ref name="Rzheshevsky">{{cite news| last = Rzheshevsky| first = Oleg A.| title = D-DAY / 60 years later : For Russia, opening of a second front in Europe came far too late
			Crossing the Line
	| publisher = ]| pages = paragraph 3| date = 2004-06-08| accessdate = 2007-09-08| url = http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/06/08/ddrussians_ed2_.php}}</ref> In practice though, German troops remained in the West even in the absence of an invasion.
			According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.
	==War memorials and tourism==
	].]]
	{{main|Impact of Normandy}}
	The beaches at Normandy are still referred to on maps and signposts by their invasion codenames. There are several vast ] in the area. The ], in ], contains row upon row of identical white ] and ], immaculately kept, commemorating the American dead. Commonwealth graves, in many locations, use white headstones engraved with the person's religious symbol and their unit insignia. The largest cemetery in Normandy is the ], which features granite stones almost flush with the ground and groups of low-set crosses. There is also a Polish cemetery.
	Streets near the beaches are still named after the units that fought there, and occasional markers commemorate notable incidents. At significant points, such as ] and ], there are plaques, memorials or small museums. The ] still sits in the sea at Arromanches. In Sainte-Mère-Église, a dummy paratrooper hangs from the ] ]. On Juno Beach, the Canadian government has built the ], commemorating one of the most significant events in Canadian military history. In Caen is a large , which is dedicated to peace generally, rather than only to the battle.
			"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."
	Every year on ], American ] and World War II veteran ] (1922&ndash;2000) reserved his '']'' ] to memorialise his comrades who fell at Normandy.
	==Documentaries==
	*"Morning: Normandy Invasion (June–August 1944)", episode 17 of the 1974 ITV series '']'' narrated by ] features an extensive coverage of the Allied preparations and the actual events.
	*''D-Day: The Lost Evidence'', 100 minute 2004 "History Channel" documentary that relies on Allied reconnaissance photos, computer graphics, reenactments, and the firsthand eye witness accounts of combatants who were there.
	*'']'' - "The Battle for Normandy", 100 minute 1994 documentary that compares Allied and German commanders, personnel, equipment, and tactics before, during, and after the battle.
	*] - '']'', a seven-part PBS documentary series about World War II as seen through the eyes of men and women from four quintessentially American towns.
			The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.
	==Dramatizations==
	;Films
	*'']'', a 1962 American film, based on the ], starring ], ], ], ], and a host of other stars in small roles.
	*''Testa di sbarco per otto implacabili'' (''Hell in Normandy''), a 1967 ] and ] film directed by Alfonso Brescia.
	*'']'', a 1980 American film by ], based on his own experiences in The First Infantry Division, or The Big Red One.
	*'']'', a 1998 Academy Award-winning American film directed by ] and starring ] and ].
	*'']'', a 1975 British movie directed by ]. The film uses documentary footage of the landing, rather than a recreation.
	*'']'', a 1973 movie starring ] about French construction labourers trapped inside a German fortification on D-Day and for a further six years.
	*'']'', a 1956 love triangle involving ], ], and ] that allocates 10 minutes, (more or less), of the 106 minute movie to reenacting the invasion. Richard Todd, (D-Day combat veteran), later co-starred in ''The Longest Day''.
	*'']'', a 1964 anti-war satire/romance with ], ], and ].
	;TV
	*'']'', a 2001 American ] produced by Steven Spielberg and Tom Hanks based on the book of the same name by ].
	*'']'', a 2004 American ] aired on ] starring ].
	;Music
	*The British heavy metal band ], on the album entitled '']'', wrote the song "The Longest Day" about the Battle of Normandy.
	*The title track on Swedish power metal band ] third album, "Primo Victoria", is about the Normandy invasion. "Primo Victoria" means "Beginning of Victory".
	*The "101st Airborne March" was composed by Daniel Bourdelès, Norman composer, for the celebration of the liberation of Carentan, in June 1994. This march is extracted from the CD ''Carentan, the sky memory'' (1994), produced by the town. It is steadily used as a musical illustration for the Normandy liberation films on France3 regional TV
	*The song "Overlord" by New York death metal band ] from the 2005 album '']'' is about the Battle of Normandy.
	*The video for the song "]" by ] is partly based on the landings at Omaha Beach on D-Day, although there are several factual errors in the video.
	*The song "Hit the Beach" by New Zealand band ] from the 1981 album ] is about the Battle of Normandy.
	;Video games
	*'']'', one of the first WW2 FPS games.
	*'']'', a 2001 video game.
	*'']'', a 2002 video game.
	*'']'' The game and several of its sequels contain missions relating to events of the battle.
	*'']'' The game and its sequels feature missions related to the Battle of Normandy
	*'']''. The Omaha Beach invasion is dramatised in the Normandy campaign.
	*'']''
	*'']''. Several games of the series deal with the Battle of Normandy
	*'']''. The German campaign of the game, titled "Hunter", takes place after the invasion of D-Day and has the player in control of German tank commander Michael Wittmann.
	*'']'', a complete simulation of the entire Battle of Normandy. Players have the option to be a pilot, a sailor, a tank commander, or any other person who was fighting for either army.
	;Wargames
	*''Atlantic Wall'', a large 1970s American ] ] by ] depicting the battle from the landings through to the breakout, at company and battalion level, and using a similar game system to ''Wacht Am Rhein''. Due to be reprinted in 2008.
	*''Omaha Beachhead'', an American board wargame published by Victory Games in 1987 focusing on the American landings, at battalion level.
	*''June 6'', an intermediate modern American board wargame by GMT depicting the battle, at brigade level. Published in 1999.
	*'']'', a large 1980 American board wargame by ] depicting the battle from the landings through to the breakout.
	*''Cobra'', a 1970s American board wargame by SPI depicting the breakout and Falaise Pocket, at brigade and division level (with Tiger tank battalions). Reprinted by ] in the late 1980s with an extra map covering the initial landings.
	*'']'', 2004 wargame covering the first 30 days of the Normandy Campaign.
	*'']'', a 2004 American wargame.
	*'']'', the fifth installment in the popular Axis & Allies series. It specifically deals with the D-Day landings.
			Freedom's on the march.
	==References==
			Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
	{{reflist}}
	==External links==
	*
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	* Geneneral Eisenhower addresses the Allied Expeditionary Force on the morning of ].
	* Canadians in Normandy, 1944. Battle info, video, audio and many photos of Canadians in Normandy.
	* CMH Pub 7–4: Official U.S. Military History.
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	* CMH Pub 100–12: Official U.S. Military History.
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	* Royal Engineers and Operation Overlord
	* (Pegasus Bridge)
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	==Sources==
	<div class="references-small">
	*'']'', ], Simon & Schuster 2<sup>nd</sup> ed., 1959, ISBN 0-671-20814-4
	*''D-Day'', Warren Tute, John Costello, Terry Hughes, Pan Books Ltd, 1975
	*''Normandy 1944'', Allied Landings and Breakout; Osprey Campaign Series #1; Stephen Badsey, Osprey Publishing, 1990
	*''Normandy 1944'', German Military Organisation, Combat Power and Organizational Effectiveness; Niklas Zetterling, J.J. Fedorowicz Publishing Inc., 2000, ISBN 0-921991-56-8.
	*''D-Day: The Invasion of Normandy, ], ]'', ], Savas, 2001.
	*''Operation Cobra 1944'', Breakout from Normandy; Osprey Campaign Series #88; Steven J. Zaloga, Osprey Publishing, 2001
	*''D-Day 1944 (3)'', Sword Beach & the British Airborne Landings; Osprey Campaign Series #105; Ken Ford, Osprey Publishing, 2002
	*''D-Day 1944 (4)'', Gold & Juno Beaches; Osprey Campaign Series #112; Ken Ford, Osprey Publishing, 2002
	*''D-Day 1944 (1)'', Omaha Beach; Osprey Campaign Series #100, Steven J. Zaloga, Osprey Publishing, 2003
	*''D-Day 1944 (2)'', Utah Beach & the US Airborne Landings; Osprey Campaign Series #104, Steven J. Zaloga, Osprey Publishing, 2004
	*"Morning: Normandy Invasion (June–August 1944)", episode 17 of BBC series '']'' (1974)
	* "Montgomery, Bernard Law", Nigel Hamilton, '']'' O.U.P. (2004)
	</div>
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	==Bibliography==
			Thursday, November 22, 2007
	<div class="references-small">
			And A Happy Turkey Day To You
	*''The Battle of Normandy, 1944'', Robin Neillands, Cassell, 2002
	*''Canada's Battle in Normandy'', ], Queen's Printer, 1948
	*''''
	*''Decision in Normandy'', Carlo D'Este, London, 1983
	*''The Second World War'', ], Hutchinson, 1989
	*''Six Armies in Normandy'', ], Penguin, 1994
	*''The Fighting First: The Untold Story of The Big Red One on D-Day'', Flint Whitlock, Westview, 2004
	*''The Bedford Boys: One American Town's Ultimate D-Day Sacrifice'', Alex Kershaw, Da Capo, 2004
	*''D-Day June 6, 1944: The Climactic Battle of World War II'', ], Simon & Schuster, 1995
	*
	*''The Struggle For Europe'', Chester Wilmot, Wordsworth Editions Ltd, 1997 (Written in part by Christopher Daniel McDevitt.)
	*''SOE'', ], BBC Publications, 1984
	</div>
			Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening!
	==Further reading==
			Labels: meta
	<div class="references-small">
	*Those who wish to study the Normandy Campaign in more detail will find numerous volumes in '''the U.S. Army in World War II''' series, produced by the U.S. Army Center of Military History, particularly useful. '''Gordon A. Harrison''', ''Cross-Channel-Attack'' (1951), remains a basic source, but several other studies bear heavily upon the operation. They include:
	# '''Robert W. Coakley''' and '''Richard M. Leighton''', ''Global Logistics and Strategy'' (1968);
	# '''Martin Blumenson''', ''Breakout and Pursuit'' (1961);
	# '''Forrest C. Pogue''', ''The Supreme Command'' (1954);
	# '''Roland G. Ruppenthal''', ''Logistical Support of the Armies'' (1953); and
	# '''Graham A. Cosmas''' and '''Albert E. Cowdrey''', ''The Medical Department: Medical Service in the European Theater of Operations'' (1992).
	*The Historical Division of the War Department produced three volumes on the event. All have been reprinted by the Center of Military History. Classified as '''the American Forces in Action''' series, they are:
	# ''OMAHA Beachhead'' (1989);
	# ''UTAH Beach to Cherbourg'' (1990); and
	# ''St. Lo'' (1984).
	*The British Government following the war also issued an official history of the British involvement in the war to be researched and published, the final result being the massive series known as ''']'''. The following cover the Normandy Campaign:
	#L.F. Ellis, '''Victory in the West: The Battle of Normandy, Official Campaign History v. I''' (History of the Second World War: United Kingdom Military), Naval & Military Press Ltd; New Ed edition (Sep 2004)., 1-84574-058-0
	#F.H. Hinsley, '''British Intelligence in the Second World War: Volume 5, Strategic Deception''', Cambridge University Press (26 Oct 1990),. ISBN 0-52140-145-3
	#'''Grand Strategy, Volume 5: August 1943-September 1944''', 1956
	*Numerous abbreviated summaries have been written. Among the most useful are:
	# '''Charles MacDonald''', ''The Mighty Endeavor: American Armed Forces in the European Theater in World War II'' (1969); and
	# '''Charles MacDonald''' and '''Martin Blumenson''', "Recovery of France", in '''Vincent J. Esposito''', ed., ''A Concise History of World War II'' (1965).
	*Memoirs by Allied commanders contain considerable information. Among the best are:
	# '''Omar N. Bradley''', ''A Soldier's Story'' (1951);
	# '''Omar N. Bradley''' and '''Clay Blair''', ''A General's Life'' (1983);
	# '''Dwight D. Eisenhower''', ''Crusade in Europe'' (1948);
	# '''Sir Bernard Law Montgomery of Alamein''', ''Normandy to the Baltic'' (1948);
	#'''Sir Bernard Law Montgomery of Alamein''', The Memoirs of Field Marshal the Viscount Montgomery of Alamein, K.G., Collins (1958). and
	# '''Sir Frederick Edgeworth Morgan''', ''Overture to Overlord'' (1950).
	*Memoirs by Allied soldiers of various ranks also give a good insight into the campaign.
	# '''Kurt Meyer''', ''Grenadiers'', Stackpole Books,U.S., New Ed edition (15 May 2005)., ISBN 0-81173-197-9
	# '''Stuart Hills''', ''By Tank Into Normandy'', Cassell military; New Ed edition (11 Sep 2003)., 0-30436-640-4
	# '''Hans von Luck''', Panzer Commander: The Memoirs of Colonel Hans von Luck, Cassell military; New Ed edition (9 Mar 2006)., ISBN 0-30436-401-0
	# B.H. Liddell-Hart, ''The Rommel Papers'' (section on Normandy wrote by '''Lt.Gen Fritz Bayerlein''')
	*Almost as useful are biographies of leading commanders. Among the most prominent are:
	# '''Stephen E. Ambrose''', ''The Supreme Commander: The War Years of General Dwight D. Eisenhower'' (1970), and ''Eisenhower, Soldier, General of the Army, President-Elect, 1890–1952'' (1983);
	# '''Nigel Hamilton''', ''Master of the Battlefield: Monty's War Years, 1942–1944'' (1983);
	# '''Richard Lamb''', ''Montgomery in Europe, 1943–1945: Success or Failure'' (1984); and
	# '''Ronald Lewin''', ''Rommel as Military Commander'' (1968).
	*Numerous general histories also exist, many centering on the controversies that continue to surround the campaign and its commanders. See, in particular:
	# '''John Colby''', ''War From the Ground Up: The 90th Division in World War II'' (1989);
	# '''Carlo D'Este''', ''Decision in Normandy: The Unwritten Story of Montgomery and the Allied Campaign'' (1983);
	# '''Max Hastings''', ''Overlord, D-Day, June 6, 1944'' (1984);
	# '''John Keegan''', ''Six Armies in Normandy: From D-Day to the Liberation of Paris'' (1982);
	# ''']''', ''The Battle of Normandy 1944'' (2002);
	# '''Stephen T. Powers''', "Battle of Normandy: The Lingering Controversy", ''Journal of Military History'' 56 (1992):455–71.
	# '''Russell F. Weigley''', ''Eisenhower's Lieutenants: The Campaign of France and Germany, 1944–45'' (1981);
	# '''Cornelius Ryan'', ''The Longest Day''', (1959);
	# '''Stephen Ambrose''', ''D-Day: June 6, 1944, The battle for the Normandy beaches'', (1994);
	# ], ''Defeat in the West'', (New Ed edition 2003)
	# '''Richard Holmes''', ''The D-Day Experience: From the Invasion to the Liberation of Paris with Other and Map and CD'',(2004);
	# '''Chester Wilmot''', ''The Struggle for Europe'', (New Ed edition 1997), and
	# '''Stephen Ashley Hart''', ''Colossal Cracks: Montgomery's 21st Army Group in Nortwest Europe, 1944-45'', (2007)
	*Journalists were among the foremost observers of the invasion. Two studies of their work that stand out are:
	# '''Barney Oldfield''', ''Never a Shot in Anger'' (1956); and
	# '''Richard Collier''','' Fighting Words: The Correspondents of World War II'' (1989). CMH Pub 72–18
	</div>
	{{World War II}}
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			Joe Klein Takes Orders Well
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			Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:
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			It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.
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			Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!
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			Greenwald smacks this down:
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			Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?
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			Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"
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			I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in.
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			Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping
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			Wednesday, November 21, 2007
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			Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy
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			So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.
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			There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.
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			Erik has more at DKos.
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			UPDATE: And more shenanigans.
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			The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions
			Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.
			In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.
			If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them.
			Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives
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			Tuesday, November 20, 2007
			The Posting, It Will Be Light
			I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.
			• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.
			• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.
			• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.
			OK, gotta go. Enjoy.
			Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame
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			The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy
			According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.
			When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.
			Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.
			All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.
			But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.
			McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.
			The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."
			This would require the foreign concept of empathy.
			Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani
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			Almost More Disgusting
			Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.
			Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.
			It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.
			One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills.
			He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.
			Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.
			A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.
			"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.
			Happy Thanksgiving!
			Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers
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			A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California
			Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.
			Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.
			Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.
			Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail.
			Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement
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			Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money
			The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)
			This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.
			Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:
			MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country
			I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document
			There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.
			The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.
			Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:
			QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?
			PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.
			QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –
			PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?
			QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –
			PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.
			QUESTION: There ought to be –
			PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –
			QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?
			PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…
			QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.
			There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls.
			Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding
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			CA Lawsuit Watch
			Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.
			Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.
			The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.
			If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint
			The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.
			That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.
			Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.
			Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.
			Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.
			But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.
			The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that.
			Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines
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			Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary
			9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.
			Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy.
			When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?
			Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.
			Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair
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			The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration
			I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).
			Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.
			President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, ''has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.''
			Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.
			Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.
			''We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy,'' Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement
			Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice
			Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.
			That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a ''thorough review'' of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.
			Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President.
			Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror
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			They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It
			With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.
			The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.
			Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.
			There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so.
			Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy
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			Monday, November 19, 2007
			The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option
			Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.
			A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.
			John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.
			Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.
			There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.
			As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.
			First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.
			So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.
			The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.
			One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.
			For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.
			It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.
			The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.
			Emptywheel had the same idea today.
			I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.
			Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.
			If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties.
			Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs
			The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.
			On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.
			October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.
			But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)
			Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.
			"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.
			The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."
			Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?
			Ever hear of trash-outs?
			“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”
			“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”
			“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”
			“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”
			“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”
			Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.
			This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation.
			Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages
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			Write A New Story
			I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.
			WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
			Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.
			Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.
			By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.
			Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State
			Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.
			Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.
			All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild
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			Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation
			The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.
			The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.
			As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.
			His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.
			About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....
			Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away.
			Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert
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			More Iowa Stories
			It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.
			On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.
			Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."
			On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."
			Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.
			Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.
			Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.
			King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.
			"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."
			As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.
			Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.
			“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”
			The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.
			“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”
			Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani
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			Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go
			John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.
			Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.
			McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.
			The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.
			And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.
			No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing.
			Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani
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			They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought
			Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.
			After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.
			Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.
			We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.
			Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans
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			Monday Random Flickr Blogging
			Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.
			"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."
			"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"
			"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."
			"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!"
			Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan
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			CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?
			This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.
			"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.
			Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.
			Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.
			This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay."
			Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos
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			Most Predictable Court Case Ever
			In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.
			The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.
			This dictatorin' is easy!
			Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Iraq 4-Evah
			So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.
			The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.
			Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.
			So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario.
			Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle
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			Comments | Trackback They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle
			There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.
			This has been the obligatory monthly sports post.
			Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia
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			Elections Have Consequences
			John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:
			Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.
			The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.
			The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions
			Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.
			Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.
			It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.
			George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.
			Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:
			"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."
			You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.
			Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.
			Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.
			UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:
			Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.
			Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles.
			Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland
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			Goalposts Flying Down The Field
			Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.
			And yet:
			With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.
			Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.
			The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.
			Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.
			The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.
			Quite a pickle, ay?
			By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.
			Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.
			Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.
			Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.
			The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious.
			Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain
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			Saturday, November 24, 2007
			The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism
			Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.
			The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him.
			Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard
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			Friday, November 23, 2007
			The New Meaning Of Probable Cause
			"Do you want a warrant?"
			"Probably."
			"Why?"
			"'Cause."
			Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.
			In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.
			Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.
			Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.
			By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT.
			Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping
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			The Thing About The Right
			using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.
			I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!"
			Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq
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			Black Friday Random Ten
			Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:
			People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine
			Beercan - Beck
			Come As You Are - Nirvana
			On A Plain - Nirvana
			Down To This - Soul Coughing
			Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova
			Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne
			Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff
			Ready For Action - The Crystal Method
			Thursday - Morphine
			Labels: music, Random Ten
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			Crossing the Line
			According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.
			"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."
			The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.
			Freedom's on the march.
			Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Thursday, November 22, 2007
			And A Happy Turkey Day To You
			Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening!
			Labels: meta
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			Joe Klein Takes Orders Well
			Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:
			It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.
			Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!
			Greenwald smacks this down:
			Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?
			Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"
			I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in.
			Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping
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			Wednesday, November 21, 2007
			Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy
			So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.
			There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.
			Erik has more at DKos.
			UPDATE: And more shenanigans.
			The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions
			Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.
			In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.
			If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them.
			Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives
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			Tuesday, November 20, 2007
			The Posting, It Will Be Light
			I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.
			• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.
			• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.
			• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.
			OK, gotta go. Enjoy.
			Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame
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			The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy
			According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.
			When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.
			Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.
			All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.
			But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.
			McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.
			The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."
			This would require the foreign concept of empathy.
			Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani
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			Almost More Disgusting
			Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.
			Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.
			It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.
			One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills.
			He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.
			Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.
			A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.
			"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.
			Happy Thanksgiving!
			Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers
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			A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California
			Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.
			Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.
			Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.
			Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail.
			Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement
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			Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money
			The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)
			This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.
			Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:
			MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country
			I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document
			There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.
			The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.
			Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:
			QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?
			PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.
			QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –
			PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?
			QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –
			PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.
			QUESTION: There ought to be –
			PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –
			QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?
			PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…
			QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.
			There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls.
			Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding
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			CA Lawsuit Watch
			Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.
			Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.
			The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.
			If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint
			The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.
			That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.
			Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.
			Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.
			Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.
			But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.
			The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that.
			Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines
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			Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary
			9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.
			Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy.
			When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?
			Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.
			Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair
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			The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration
			I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).
			Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.
			President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, ''has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.''
			Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.
			Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.
			''We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy,'' Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement
			Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice
			Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.
			That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a ''thorough review'' of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.
			Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President.
			Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror
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			They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It
			With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.
			The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.
			Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.
			There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so.
			Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy
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			Monday, November 19, 2007
			The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option
			Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.
			A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.
			John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.
			Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.
			There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.
			As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.
			First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.
			So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.
			The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.
			One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.
			For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.
			It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.
			The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.
			Emptywheel had the same idea today.
			I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.
			Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.
			If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties.
			Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs
			The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.
			On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.
			October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.
			But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)
			Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.
			"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.
			The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."
			Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?
			Ever hear of trash-outs?
			“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”
			“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”
			“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”
			“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”
			“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”
			Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.
			This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation.
			Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages
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			Write A New Story
			I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.
			WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
			Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.
			Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.
			By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.
			Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State
			Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.
			Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.
			All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild
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			Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation
			The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.
			The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.
			As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.
			His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.
			About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....
			Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away.
			Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert
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			More Iowa Stories
			It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.
			On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.
			Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."
			On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."
			Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.
			Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.
			Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.
			King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.
			"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."
			As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.
			Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.
			“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”
			The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.
			“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”
			Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani
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			Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go
			John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.
			Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.
			McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.
			The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.
			And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.
			No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing.
			Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani
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			They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought
			Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.
			After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.
			Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.
			We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.
			Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans
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			Monday Random Flickr Blogging
			Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.
			"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."
			"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"
			"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."
			"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!"
			Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan
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			CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?
			This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.
			"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.
			Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.
			Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.
			This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay."
			Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos
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			Most Predictable Court Case Ever
			In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.
			The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.
			This dictatorin' is easy!
			Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Iraq 4-Evah
			So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.
			The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.
			Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.
			So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario.
			Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle
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			Comments | Trackback They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle
			There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.
			This has been the obligatory monthly sports post.
			Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia
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			Elections Have Consequences
			John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:
			Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.
			The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.
			The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions
			Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.
			Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.
			It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.
			George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.
			Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:
			"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."
			You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.
			Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.
			Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.
			UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:
			Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.
			Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles.
			Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland
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			Goalposts Flying Down The Field
			Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.
			And yet:
			With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.
			Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.
			The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.
			Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.
			The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.
			Quite a pickle, ay?
			By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.
			Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.
			Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.
			Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.
			The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious.
			Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain
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			Saturday, November 24, 2007
			The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism
			Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.
			The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him.
			Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard
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			Friday, November 23, 2007
			The New Meaning Of Probable Cause
			"Do you want a warrant?"
			"Probably."
			"Why?"
			"'Cause."
			Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.
			In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.
			Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.
			Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.
			By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT.
			Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping
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			The Thing About The Right
			using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.
			I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!"
			Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq
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			Black Friday Random Ten
			Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:
			People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine
			Beercan - Beck
			Come As You Are - Nirvana
			On A Plain - Nirvana
			Down To This - Soul Coughing
			Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova
			Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne
			Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff
			Ready For Action - The Crystal Method
			Thursday - Morphine
			Labels: music, Random Ten
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			Crossing the Line
			According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.
			"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."
			The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.
			Freedom's on the march.
			Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Thursday, November 22, 2007
			And A Happy Turkey Day To You
			Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening!
			Labels: meta
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			Joe Klein Takes Orders Well
			Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:
			It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.
			Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!
			Greenwald smacks this down:
			Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?
			Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"
			I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in.
			Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping
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			Wednesday, November 21, 2007
			Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy
			So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.
			There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.
			Erik has more at DKos.
			UPDATE: And more shenanigans.
			The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions
			Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.
			In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.
			If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them.
			Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives
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			Tuesday, November 20, 2007
			The Posting, It Will Be Light
			I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.
			• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.
			• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.
			• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.
			OK, gotta go. Enjoy.
			Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame
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			The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy
			According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.
			When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.
			Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.
			All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.
			But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.
			McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.
			The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."
			This would require the foreign concept of empathy.
			Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani
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			Almost More Disgusting
			Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.
			Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.
			It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.
			One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills.
			He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.
			Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.
			A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.
			"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.
			Happy Thanksgiving!
			Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers
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			A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California
			Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.
			Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.
			Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.
			Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail.
			Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement
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			Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money
			The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)
			This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.
			Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:
			MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country
			I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document
			There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.
			The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.
			Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:
			QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?
			PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.
			QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –
			PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?
			QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –
			PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.
			QUESTION: There ought to be –
			PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –
			QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?
			PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…
			QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.
			There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls.
			Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding
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			CA Lawsuit Watch
			Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.
			Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.
			The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.
			If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint
			The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.
			That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.
			Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.
			Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.
			Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.
			But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.
			The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that.
			Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines
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			Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary
			9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.
			Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy.
			When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?
			Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.
			Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair
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			The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration
			I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).
			Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.
			President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, ''has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.''
			Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.
			Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.
			''We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy,'' Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement
			Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice
			Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.
			That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a ''thorough review'' of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.
			Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President.
			Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror
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			They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It
			With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.
			The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.
			Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.
			There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so.
			Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy
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			Monday, November 19, 2007
			The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option
			Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.
			A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.
			John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.
			Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.
			There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.
			As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.
			First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.
			So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.
			The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.
			One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.
			For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.
			It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.
			The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.
			Emptywheel had the same idea today.
			I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.
			Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.
			If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties.
			Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs
			The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.
			On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.
			October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.
			But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)
			Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.
			"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.
			The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."
			Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?
			Ever hear of trash-outs?
			“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”
			“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”
			“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”
			“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”
			“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”
			Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.
			This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation.
			Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages
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			Write A New Story
			I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.
			WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
			Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.
			Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.
			By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.
			Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State
			Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.
			Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.
			All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild
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			Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation
			The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.
			The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.
			As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.
			His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.
			About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....
			Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away.
			Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert
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			More Iowa Stories
			It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.
			On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.
			Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."
			On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."
			Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.
			Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.
			Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.
			King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.
			"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."
			As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.
			Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.
			“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”
			The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.
			“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”
			Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani
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			Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go
			John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.
			Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.
			McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.
			The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.
			And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.
			No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing.
			Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani
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			They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought
			Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.
			After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.
			Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.
			We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.
			Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans
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			Monday Random Flickr Blogging
			Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.
			"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."
			"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"
			"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."
			"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!"
			Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan
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			CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?
			This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.
			"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.
			Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.
			Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.
			This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay."
			Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos
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			Most Predictable Court Case Ever
			In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.
			The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.
			This dictatorin' is easy!
			Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Iraq 4-Evah
			So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.
			The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.
			Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.
			So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario.
			Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle
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			Comments | Trackback They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle
			There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.
			This has been the obligatory monthly sports post.
			Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia
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			Elections Have Consequences
			John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:
			Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.
			The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.
			The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions
			Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.
			Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.
			It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.
			George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.
			Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:
			"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."
			You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.
			Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.
			Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.
			UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:
			Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.
			Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles.
			Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland
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			Goalposts Flying Down The Field
			Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.
			And yet:
			With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.
			Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.
			The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.
			Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.
			The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.
			Quite a pickle, ay?
			By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.
			Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.
			Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.
			Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.
			The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious.
			Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain
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			Saturday, November 24, 2007
			The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism
			Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.
			The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him.
			Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard
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			Friday, November 23, 2007
			The New Meaning Of Probable Cause
			"Do you want a warrant?"
			"Probably."
			"Why?"
			"'Cause."
			Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.
			In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.
			Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.
			Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.
			By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT.
			Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping
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			The Thing About The Right
			using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.
			I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!"
			Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq
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			Black Friday Random Ten
			Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:
			People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine
			Beercan - Beck
			Come As You Are - Nirvana
			On A Plain - Nirvana
			Down To This - Soul Coughing
			Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova
			Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne
			Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff
			Ready For Action - The Crystal Method
			Thursday - Morphine
			Labels: music, Random Ten
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			Crossing the Line
			According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.
			"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."
			The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.
			Freedom's on the march.
			Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Thursday, November 22, 2007
			And A Happy Turkey Day To You
			Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening!
			Labels: meta
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			Joe Klein Takes Orders Well
			Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:
			It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.
			Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!
			Greenwald smacks this down:
			Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?
			Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"
			I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in.
			Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping
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			Wednesday, November 21, 2007
			Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy
			So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.
			There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.
			Erik has more at DKos.
			UPDATE: And more shenanigans.
			The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions
			Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.
			In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.
			If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them.
			Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives
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			Tuesday, November 20, 2007
			The Posting, It Will Be Light
			I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.
			• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.
			• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.
			• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.
			OK, gotta go. Enjoy.
			Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame
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			The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy
			According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.
			When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.
			Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.
			All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.
			But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.
			McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.
			The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."
			This would require the foreign concept of empathy.
			Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani
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			Almost More Disgusting
			Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.
			Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.
			It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.
			One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills.
			He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.
			Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.
			A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.
			"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.
			Happy Thanksgiving!
			Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers
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			A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California
			Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.
			Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.
			Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.
			Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail.
			Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement
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			Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money
			The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)
			This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.
			Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:
			MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country
			I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document
			There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.
			The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.
			Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:
			QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?
			PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.
			QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –
			PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?
			QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –
			PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.
			QUESTION: There ought to be –
			PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –
			QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?
			PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…
			QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.
			There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls.
			Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding
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			CA Lawsuit Watch
			Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.
			Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.
			The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.
			If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint
			The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.
			That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.
			Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.
			Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.
			Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.
			But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.
			The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that.
			Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines
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			Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary
			9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.
			Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy.
			When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?
			Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.
			Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair
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			The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration
			I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).
			Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.
			President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, ''has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.''
			Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.
			Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.
			''We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy,'' Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement
			Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice
			Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.
			That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a ''thorough review'' of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.
			Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President.
			Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror
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			They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It
			With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.
			The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.
			Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.
			There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so.
			Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy
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			Monday, November 19, 2007
			The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option
			Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.
			A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.
			John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.
			Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.
			There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.
			As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.
			First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.
			So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.
			The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.
			One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.
			For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.
			It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.
			The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.
			Emptywheel had the same idea today.
			I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.
			Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.
			If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties.
			Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs
			The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.
			On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.
			October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.
			But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)
			Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.
			"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.
			The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."
			Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?
			Ever hear of trash-outs?
			“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”
			“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”
			“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”
			“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”
			“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”
			Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.
			This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation.
			Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages
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			Write A New Story
			I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.
			WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
			Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.
			Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.
			By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.
			Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State
			Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.
			Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.
			All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild
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			Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation
			The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.
			The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.
			As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.
			His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.
			About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....
			Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away.
			Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert
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			More Iowa Stories
			It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.
			On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.
			Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."
			On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."
			Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.
			Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.
			Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.
			King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.
			"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."
			As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.
			Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.
			“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”
			The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.
			“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”
			Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani
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			Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go
			John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.
			Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.
			McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.
			The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.
			And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.
			No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing.
			Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani
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			They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought
			Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.
			After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.
			Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.
			We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.
			Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans
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			Monday Random Flickr Blogging
			Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.
			"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."
			"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"
			"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."
			"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!"
			Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan
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			CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?
			This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.
			"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.
			Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.
			Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.
			This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay."
			Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos
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			Most Predictable Court Case Ever
			In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.
			The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.
			This dictatorin' is easy!
			Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Iraq 4-Evah
			So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.
			The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.
			Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.
			So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario.
			Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle
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			Comments | Trackback They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle
			There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.
			This has been the obligatory monthly sports post.
			Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia
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			Elections Have Consequences
			John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:
			Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.
			The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.
			The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions
			Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.
			Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.
			It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.
			George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.
			Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:
			"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."
			You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.
			Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.
			Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.
			UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:
			Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.
			Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles.
			Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland
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			Goalposts Flying Down The Field
			Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.
			And yet:
			With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.
			Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.
			The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.
			Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.
			The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.
			Quite a pickle, ay?
			By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.
			Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.
			Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.
			Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.
			The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious.
			Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain
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			Saturday, November 24, 2007
			The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism
			Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.
			The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him.
			Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard
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			Friday, November 23, 2007
			The New Meaning Of Probable Cause
			"Do you want a warrant?"
			"Probably."
			"Why?"
			"'Cause."
			Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.
			In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.
			Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.
			Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.
			By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT.
			Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping
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			The Thing About The Right
			using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.
			I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!"
			Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq
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			Black Friday Random Ten
			Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:
			People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine
			Beercan - Beck
			Come As You Are - Nirvana
			On A Plain - Nirvana
			Down To This - Soul Coughing
			Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova
			Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne
			Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff
			Ready For Action - The Crystal Method
			Thursday - Morphine
			Labels: music, Random Ten
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			Crossing the Line
			According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.
			"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."
			The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.
			Freedom's on the march.
			Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Thursday, November 22, 2007
			And A Happy Turkey Day To You
			Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening!
			Labels: meta
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			Joe Klein Takes Orders Well
			Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:
			It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.
			Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!
			Greenwald smacks this down:
			Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?
			Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"
			I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in.
			Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping
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			Wednesday, November 21, 2007
			Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy
			So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.
			There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.
			Erik has more at DKos.
			UPDATE: And more shenanigans.
			The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions
			Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.
			In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.
			If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them.
			Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives
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			Tuesday, November 20, 2007
			The Posting, It Will Be Light
			I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.
			• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.
			• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.
			• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.
			OK, gotta go. Enjoy.
			Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame
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			The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy
			According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.
			When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.
			Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.
			All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.
			But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.
			McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.
			The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."
			This would require the foreign concept of empathy.
			Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani
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			Almost More Disgusting
			Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.
			Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.
			It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.
			One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills.
			He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.
			Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.
			A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.
			"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.
			Happy Thanksgiving!
			Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers
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			A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California
			Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.
			Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.
			Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.
			Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail.
			Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement
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			Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money
			The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)
			This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.
			Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:
			MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country
			I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document
			There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.
			The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.
			Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:
			QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?
			PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.
			QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –
			PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?
			QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –
			PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.
			QUESTION: There ought to be –
			PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –
			QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?
			PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…
			QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.
			There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls.
			Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding
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			CA Lawsuit Watch
			Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.
			Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.
			The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.
			If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint
			The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.
			That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.
			Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.
			Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.
			Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.
			But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.
			The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that.
			Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines
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			Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary
			9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.
			Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy.
			When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?
			Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.
			Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair
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			The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration
			I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).
			Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.
			President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, ''has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.''
			Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.
			Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.
			''We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy,'' Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement
			Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice
			Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.
			That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a ''thorough review'' of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.
			Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President.
			Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror
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			They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It
			With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.
			The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.
			Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.
			There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so.
			Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy
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			Monday, November 19, 2007
			The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option
			Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.
			A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.
			John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.
			Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.
			There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.
			As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.
			First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.
			So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.
			The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.
			One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.
			For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.
			It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.
			The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.
			Emptywheel had the same idea today.
			I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.
			Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.
			If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties.
			Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs
			The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.
			On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.
			October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.
			But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)
			Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.
			"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.
			The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."
			Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?
			Ever hear of trash-outs?
			“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”
			“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”
			“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”
			“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”
			“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”
			Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.
			This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation.
			Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages
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			Write A New Story
			I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.
			WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
			Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.
			Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.
			By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.
			Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State
			Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.
			Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.
			All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild
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			Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation
			The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.
			The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.
			As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.
			His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.
			About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....
			Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away.
			Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert
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			More Iowa Stories
			It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.
			On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.
			Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."
			On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."
			Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.
			Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.
			Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.
			King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.
			"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."
			As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.
			Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.
			“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”
			The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.
			“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”
			Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani
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			Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go
			John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.
			Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.
			McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.
			The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.
			And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.
			No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing.
			Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani
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			They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought
			Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.
			After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.
			Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.
			We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.
			Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans
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			Monday Random Flickr Blogging
			Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.
			"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."
			"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"
			"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."
			"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!"
			Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan
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			CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?
			This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.
			"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.
			Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.
			Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.
			This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay."
			Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos
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			Most Predictable Court Case Ever
			In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.
			The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.
			This dictatorin' is easy!
			Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Iraq 4-Evah
			So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.
			The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.
			Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.
			So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario.
			Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle
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			Comments | Trackback They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle
			There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.
			This has been the obligatory monthly sports post.
			Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia
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			Elections Have Consequences
			John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:
			Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.
			The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.
			The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions
			Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.
			Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.
			It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.
			George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.
			Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:
			"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."
			You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.
			Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.
			Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.
			UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:
			Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.
			Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles.
			Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland
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			Goalposts Flying Down The Field
			Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.
			And yet:
			With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.
			Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.
			The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.
			Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.
			The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.
			Quite a pickle, ay?
			By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.
			Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.
			Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.
			Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.
			The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious.
			Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain
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			Saturday, November 24, 2007
			The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism
			Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.
			The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him.
			Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard
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			Friday, November 23, 2007
			The New Meaning Of Probable Cause
			"Do you want a warrant?"
			"Probably."
			"Why?"
			"'Cause."
			Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.
			In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.
			Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.
			Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.
			By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT.
			Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping
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			The Thing About The Right
			using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.
			I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!"
			Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq
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			Black Friday Random Ten
			Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:
			People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine
			Beercan - Beck
			Come As You Are - Nirvana
			On A Plain - Nirvana
			Down To This - Soul Coughing
			Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova
			Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne
			Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff
			Ready For Action - The Crystal Method
			Thursday - Morphine
			Labels: music, Random Ten
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			Crossing the Line
			According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.
			"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."
			The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.
			Freedom's on the march.
			Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Thursday, November 22, 2007
			And A Happy Turkey Day To You
			Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening!
			Labels: meta
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			Joe Klein Takes Orders Well
			Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:
			It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.
			Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!
			Greenwald smacks this down:
			Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?
			Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"
			I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in.
			Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping
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			Wednesday, November 21, 2007
			Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy
			So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.
			There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.
			Erik has more at DKos.
			UPDATE: And more shenanigans.
			The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions
			Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.
			In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.
			If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them.
			Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives
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			Tuesday, November 20, 2007
			The Posting, It Will Be Light
			I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.
			• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.
			• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.
			• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.
			OK, gotta go. Enjoy.
			Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame
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			The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy
			According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.
			When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.
			Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.
			All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.
			But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.
			McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.
			The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."
			This would require the foreign concept of empathy.
			Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani
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			Almost More Disgusting
			Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.
			Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.
			It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.
			One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills.
			He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.
			Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.
			A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.
			"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.
			Happy Thanksgiving!
			Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers
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			A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California
			Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.
			Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.
			Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.
			Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail.
			Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement
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			Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money
			The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)
			This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.
			Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:
			MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country
			I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document
			There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.
			The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.
			Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:
			QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?
			PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.
			QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –
			PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?
			QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –
			PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.
			QUESTION: There ought to be –
			PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –
			QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?
			PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…
			QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.
			There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls.
			Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding
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			CA Lawsuit Watch
			Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.
			Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.
			The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.
			If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint
			The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.
			That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.
			Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.
			Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.
			Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.
			But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.
			The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that.
			Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines
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			Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary
			9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.
			Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy.
			When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?
			Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.
			Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair
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			The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration
			I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).
			Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.
			President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, ''has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.''
			Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.
			Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.
			''We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy,'' Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement
			Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice
			Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.
			That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a ''thorough review'' of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.
			Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President.
			Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror
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			They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It
			With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.
			The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.
			Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.
			There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so.
			Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy
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			Monday, November 19, 2007
			The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option
			Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.
			A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.
			John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.
			Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.
			There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.
			As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.
			First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.
			So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.
			The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.
			One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.
			For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.
			It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.
			The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.
			Emptywheel had the same idea today.
			I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.
			Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.
			If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties.
			Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs
			The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.
			On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.
			October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.
			But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)
			Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.
			"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.
			The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."
			Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?
			Ever hear of trash-outs?
			“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”
			“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”
			“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”
			“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”
			“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”
			Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.
			This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation.
			Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages
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			Write A New Story
			I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.
			WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
			Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.
			Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.
			By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.
			Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State
			Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.
			Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.
			All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild
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			Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation
			The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.
			The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.
			As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.
			His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.
			About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....
			Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away.
			Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert
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			More Iowa Stories
			It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.
			On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.
			Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."
			On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."
			Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.
			Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.
			Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.
			King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.
			"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."
			As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.
			Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.
			“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”
			The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.
			“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”
			Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani
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			Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go
			John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.
			Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.
			McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.
			The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.
			And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.
			No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing.
			Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani
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			They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought
			Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.
			After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.
			Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.
			We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.
			Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans
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			Monday Random Flickr Blogging
			Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.
			"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."
			"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"
			"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."
			"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!"
			Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan
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			CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?
			This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.
			"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.
			Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.
			Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.
			This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay."
			Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos
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			Most Predictable Court Case Ever
			In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.
			The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.
			This dictatorin' is easy!
			Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Iraq 4-Evah
			So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.
			The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.
			Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.
			So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario.
			Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle
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			Comments | Trackback They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle
			There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.
			This has been the obligatory monthly sports post.
			Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia
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			Elections Have Consequences
			John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:
			Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.
			The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.
			The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions
			Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.
			Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.
			It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.
			George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.
			Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:
			"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."
			You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.
			Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.
			Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.
			UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:
			Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.
			Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles.
			Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland
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			Goalposts Flying Down The Field
			Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.
			And yet:
			With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.
			Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.
			The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.
			Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.
			The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.
			Quite a pickle, ay?
			By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.
			Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.
			Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.
			Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.
			The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious.
			Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain
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			Saturday, November 24, 2007
			The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism
			Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.
			The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him.
			Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard
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			Friday, November 23, 2007
			The New Meaning Of Probable Cause
			"Do you want a warrant?"
			"Probably."
			"Why?"
			"'Cause."
			Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.
			In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.
			Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.
			Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.
			By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT.
			Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping
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			The Thing About The Right
			using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.
			I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!"
			Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq
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			Black Friday Random Ten
			Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:
			People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine
			Beercan - Beck
			Come As You Are - Nirvana
			On A Plain - Nirvana
			Down To This - Soul Coughing
			Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova
			Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne
			Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff
			Ready For Action - The Crystal Method
			Thursday - Morphine
			Labels: music, Random Ten
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			Crossing the Line
			According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.
			"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."
			The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.
			Freedom's on the march.
			Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Thursday, November 22, 2007
			And A Happy Turkey Day To You
			Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening!
			Labels: meta
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			Joe Klein Takes Orders Well
			Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:
			It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.
			Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!
			Greenwald smacks this down:
			Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?
			Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"
			I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in.
			Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping
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			Wednesday, November 21, 2007
			Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy
			So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.
			There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.
			Erik has more at DKos.
			UPDATE: And more shenanigans.
			The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions
			Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.
			In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.
			If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them.
			Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives
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			Tuesday, November 20, 2007
			The Posting, It Will Be Light
			I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.
			• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.
			• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.
			• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.
			OK, gotta go. Enjoy.
			Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame
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			The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy
			According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.
			When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.
			Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.
			All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.
			But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.
			McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.
			The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."
			This would require the foreign concept of empathy.
			Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani
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			Almost More Disgusting
			Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.
			Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.
			It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.
			One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills.
			He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.
			Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.
			A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.
			"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.
			Happy Thanksgiving!
			Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers
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			A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California
			Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.
			Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.
			Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.
			Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail.
			Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement
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			Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money
			The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)
			This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.
			Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:
			MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country
			I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document
			There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.
			The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.
			Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:
			QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?
			PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.
			QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –
			PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?
			QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –
			PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.
			QUESTION: There ought to be –
			PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –
			QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?
			PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…
			QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.
			There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls.
			Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding
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			CA Lawsuit Watch
			Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.
			Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.
			The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.
			If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint
			The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.
			That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.
			Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.
			Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.
			Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.
			But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.
			The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that.
			Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines
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			Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary
			9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.
			Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy.
			When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?
			Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.
			Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair
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			The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration
			I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).
			Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.
			President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, ''has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.''
			Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.
			Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.
			''We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy,'' Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement
			Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice
			Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.
			That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a ''thorough review'' of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.
			Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President.
			Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror
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			They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It
			With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.
			The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.
			Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.
			There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so.
			Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy
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			Monday, November 19, 2007
			The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option
			Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.
			A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.
			John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.
			Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.
			There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.
			As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.
			First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.
			So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.
			The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.
			One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.
			For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.
			It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.
			The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.
			Emptywheel had the same idea today.
			I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.
			Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.
			If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties.
			Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs
			The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.
			On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.
			October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.
			But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)
			Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.
			"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.
			The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."
			Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?
			Ever hear of trash-outs?
			“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”
			“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”
			“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”
			“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”
			“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”
			Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.
			This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation.
			Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages
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			Write A New Story
			I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.
			WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
			Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.
			Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.
			By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.
			Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State
			Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.
			Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.
			All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild
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			Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation
			The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.
			The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.
			As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.
			His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.
			About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....
			Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away.
			Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert
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			More Iowa Stories
			It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.
			On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.
			Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."
			On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."
			Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.
			Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.
			Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.
			King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.
			"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."
			As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.
			Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.
			“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”
			The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.
			“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”
			Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani
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			Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go
			John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.
			Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.
			McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.
			The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.
			And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.
			No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing.
			Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani
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			They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought
			Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.
			After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.
			Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.
			We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.
			Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans
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			Monday Random Flickr Blogging
			Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.
			"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."
			"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"
			"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."
			"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!"
			Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan
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			CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?
			This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.
			"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.
			Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.
			Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.
			This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay."
			Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos
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			Most Predictable Court Case Ever
			In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.
			The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.
			This dictatorin' is easy!
			Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Iraq 4-Evah
			So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.
			The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.
			Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.
			So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario.
			Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle
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			Comments | Trackback They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle
			There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.
			This has been the obligatory monthly sports post.
			Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia
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			Elections Have Consequences
			John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:
			Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.
			The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.
			The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions
			Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.
			Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.
			It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.
			George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.
			Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:
			"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."
			You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.
			Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.
			Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.
			UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:
			Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.
			Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles.
			Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland
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			Goalposts Flying Down The Field
			Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.
			And yet:
			With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.
			Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.
			The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.
			Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.
			The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.
			Quite a pickle, ay?
			By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.
			Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.
			Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.
			Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.
			The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious.
			Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain
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			Saturday, November 24, 2007
			The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism
			Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.
			The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him.
			Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard
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			Friday, November 23, 2007
			The New Meaning Of Probable Cause
			"Do you want a warrant?"
			"Probably."
			"Why?"
			"'Cause."
			Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.
			In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.
			Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.
			Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.
			By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT.
			Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping
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			The Thing About The Right
			using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.
			I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!"
			Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq
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			Black Friday Random Ten
			Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:
			People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine
			Beercan - Beck
			Come As You Are - Nirvana
			On A Plain - Nirvana
			Down To This - Soul Coughing
			Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova
			Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne
			Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff
			Ready For Action - The Crystal Method
			Thursday - Morphine
			Labels: music, Random Ten
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			Crossing the Line
			According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.
			"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."
			The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.
			Freedom's on the march.
			Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Thursday, November 22, 2007
			And A Happy Turkey Day To You
			Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening!
			Labels: meta
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			Joe Klein Takes Orders Well
			Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:
			It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.
			Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!
			Greenwald smacks this down:
			Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?
			Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"
			I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in.
			Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping
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			Wednesday, November 21, 2007
			Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy
			So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.
			There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.
			Erik has more at DKos.
			UPDATE: And more shenanigans.
			The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions
			Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.
			In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.
			If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them.
			Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives
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			Tuesday, November 20, 2007
			The Posting, It Will Be Light
			I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.
			• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.
			• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.
			• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.
			OK, gotta go. Enjoy.
			Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame
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			The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy
			According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.
			When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.
			Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.
			All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.
			But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.
			McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.
			The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."
			This would require the foreign concept of empathy.
			Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani
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			Almost More Disgusting
			Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.
			Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.
			It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.
			One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills.
			He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.
			Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.
			A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.
			"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.
			Happy Thanksgiving!
			Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers
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			A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California
			Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.
			Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.
			Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.
			Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail.
			Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement
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			Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money
			The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)
			This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.
			Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:
			MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country
			I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document
			There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.
			The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.
			Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:
			QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?
			PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.
			QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –
			PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?
			QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –
			PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.
			QUESTION: There ought to be –
			PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –
			QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?
			PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…
			QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.
			There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls.
			Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding
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			CA Lawsuit Watch
			Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.
			Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.
			The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.
			If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint
			The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.
			That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.
			Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.
			Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.
			Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.
			But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.
			The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that.
			Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines
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			Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary
			9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.
			Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy.
			When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?
			Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.
			Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair
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			The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration
			I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).
			Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.
			President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, ''has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.''
			Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.
			Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.
			''We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy,'' Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement
			Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice
			Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.
			That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a ''thorough review'' of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.
			Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President.
			Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror
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			They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It
			With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.
			The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.
			Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.
			There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so.
			Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy
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			Monday, November 19, 2007
			The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option
			Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.
			A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.
			John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.
			Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.
			There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.
			As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.
			First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.
			So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.
			The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.
			One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.
			For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.
			It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.
			The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.
			Emptywheel had the same idea today.
			I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.
			Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.
			If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties.
			Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs
			The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.
			On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.
			October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.
			But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)
			Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.
			"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.
			The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."
			Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?
			Ever hear of trash-outs?
			“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”
			“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”
			“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”
			“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”
			“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”
			Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.
			This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation.
			Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages
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			Write A New Story
			I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.
			WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
			Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.
			Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.
			By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.
			Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State
			Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.
			Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.
			All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild
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			Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation
			The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.
			The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.
			As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.
			His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.
			About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....
			Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away.
			Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert
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			More Iowa Stories
			It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.
			On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.
			Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."
			On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."
			Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.
			Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.
			Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.
			King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.
			"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."
			As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.
			Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.
			“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”
			The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.
			“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”
			Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani
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			Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go
			John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.
			Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.
			McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.
			The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.
			And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.
			No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing.
			Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani
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			They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought
			Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.
			After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.
			Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.
			We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.
			Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans
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			Monday Random Flickr Blogging
			Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.
			"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."
			"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"
			"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."
			"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!"
			Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan
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			CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?
			This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.
			"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.
			Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.
			Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.
			This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay."
			Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos
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			Most Predictable Court Case Ever
			In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.
			The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.
			This dictatorin' is easy!
			Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Iraq 4-Evah
			So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.
			The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.
			Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.
			So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario.
			Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle
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			Comments | Trackback They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle
			There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.
			This has been the obligatory monthly sports post.
			Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia
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			Elections Have Consequences
			John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:
			Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.
			The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.
			The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions
			Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.
			Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.
			It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.
			George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.
			Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:
			"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."
			You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.
			Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.
			Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.
			UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:
			Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.
			Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles.
			Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland
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			Goalposts Flying Down The Field
			Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.
			And yet:
			With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.
			Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.
			The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.
			Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.
			The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.
			Quite a pickle, ay?
			By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.
			Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.
			Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.
			Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.
			The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious.
			Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain
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			Saturday, November 24, 2007
			The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism
			Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.
			The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him.
			Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard
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			Friday, November 23, 2007
			The New Meaning Of Probable Cause
			"Do you want a warrant?"
			"Probably."
			"Why?"
			"'Cause."
			Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.
			In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.
			Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.
			Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.
			By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT.
			Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping
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			The Thing About The Right
			using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.
			I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!"
			Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq
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			Black Friday Random Ten
			Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:
			People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine
			Beercan - Beck
			Come As You Are - Nirvana
			On A Plain - Nirvana
			Down To This - Soul Coughing
			Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova
			Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne
			Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff
			Ready For Action - The Crystal Method
			Thursday - Morphine
			Labels: music, Random Ten
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			Crossing the Line
			According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.
			"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."
			The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.
			Freedom's on the march.
			Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Thursday, November 22, 2007
			And A Happy Turkey Day To You
			Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening!
			Labels: meta
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			Joe Klein Takes Orders Well
			Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:
			It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.
			Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!
			Greenwald smacks this down:
			Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?
			Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"
			I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in.
			Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping
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			Wednesday, November 21, 2007
			Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy
			So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.
			There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.
			Erik has more at DKos.
			UPDATE: And more shenanigans.
			The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions
			Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.
			In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.
			If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them.
			Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives
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			Tuesday, November 20, 2007
			The Posting, It Will Be Light
			I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.
			• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.
			• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.
			• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.
			OK, gotta go. Enjoy.
			Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame
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			The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy
			According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.
			When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.
			Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.
			All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.
			But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.
			McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.
			The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."
			This would require the foreign concept of empathy.
			Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani
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			Almost More Disgusting
			Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.
			Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.
			It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.
			One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills.
			He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.
			Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.
			A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.
			"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.
			Happy Thanksgiving!
			Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers
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			A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California
			Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.
			Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.
			Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.
			Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail.
			Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement
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			Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money
			The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)
			This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.
			Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:
			MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country
			I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document
			There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.
			The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.
			Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:
			QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?
			PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.
			QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –
			PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?
			QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –
			PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.
			QUESTION: There ought to be –
			PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –
			QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?
			PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…
			QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.
			There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls.
			Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding
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			CA Lawsuit Watch
			Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.
			Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.
			The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.
			If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint
			The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.
			That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.
			Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.
			Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.
			Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.
			But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.
			The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that.
			Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines
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			Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary
			9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.
			Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy.
			When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?
			Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.
			Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair
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			The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration
			I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).
			Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.
			President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, ''has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.''
			Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.
			Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.
			''We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy,'' Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement
			Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice
			Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.
			That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a ''thorough review'' of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.
			Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President.
			Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror
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			They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It
			With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.
			The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.
			Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.
			There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so.
			Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy
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			Monday, November 19, 2007
			The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option
			Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.
			A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.
			John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.
			Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.
			There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.
			As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.
			First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.
			So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.
			The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.
			One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.
			For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.
			It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.
			The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.
			Emptywheel had the same idea today.
			I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.
			Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.
			If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties.
			Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs
			The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.
			On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.
			October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.
			But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)
			Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.
			"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.
			The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."
			Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?
			Ever hear of trash-outs?
			“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”
			“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”
			“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”
			“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”
			“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”
			Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.
			This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation.
			Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages
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			Write A New Story
			I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.
			WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
			Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.
			Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.
			By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.
			Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State
			Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.
			Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.
			All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild
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			Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation
			The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.
			The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.
			As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.
			His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.
			About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....
			Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away.
			Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert
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			More Iowa Stories
			It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.
			On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.
			Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."
			On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."
			Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.
			Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.
			Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.
			King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.
			"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."
			As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.
			Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.
			“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”
			The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.
			“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”
			Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani
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			Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go
			John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.
			Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.
			McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.
			The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.
			And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.
			No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing.
			Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani
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			They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought
			Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.
			After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.
			Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.
			We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.
			Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans
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			Monday Random Flickr Blogging
			Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.
			"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."
			"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"
			"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."
			"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!"
			Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan
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			CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?
			This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.
			"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.
			Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.
			Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.
			This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay."
			Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos
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			Most Predictable Court Case Ever
			In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.
			The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.
			This dictatorin' is easy!
			Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Iraq 4-Evah
			So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.
			The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.
			Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.
			So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario.
			Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle
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			Comments | Trackback They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle
			There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.
			This has been the obligatory monthly sports post.
			Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia
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			Elections Have Consequences
			John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:
			Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.
			The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.
			The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions
			Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.
			Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.
			It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.
			George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.
			Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:
			"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."
			You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.
			Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.
			Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.
			UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:
			Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.
			Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles.
			Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland
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			Goalposts Flying Down The Field
			Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.
			And yet:
			With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.
			Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.
			The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.
			Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.
			The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.
			Quite a pickle, ay?
			By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.
			Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.
			Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.
			Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.
			The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious.
			Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain
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			Saturday, November 24, 2007
			The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism
			Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.
			The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him.
			Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard
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			Friday, November 23, 2007
			The New Meaning Of Probable Cause
			"Do you want a warrant?"
			"Probably."
			"Why?"
			"'Cause."
			Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.
			In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.
			Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.
			Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.
			By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT.
			Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping
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			The Thing About The Right
			using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.
			I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!"
			Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq
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			Black Friday Random Ten
			Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:
			People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine
			Beercan - Beck
			Come As You Are - Nirvana
			On A Plain - Nirvana
			Down To This - Soul Coughing
			Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova
			Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne
			Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff
			Ready For Action - The Crystal Method
			Thursday - Morphine
			Labels: music, Random Ten
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			Crossing the Line
			According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.
			"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."
			The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.
			Freedom's on the march.
			Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Thursday, November 22, 2007
			And A Happy Turkey Day To You
			Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening!
			Labels: meta
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			Joe Klein Takes Orders Well
			Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:
			It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.
			Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!
			Greenwald smacks this down:
			Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?
			Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"
			I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in.
			Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping
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			Wednesday, November 21, 2007
			Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy
			So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.
			There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.
			Erik has more at DKos.
			UPDATE: And more shenanigans.
			The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions
			Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.
			In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.
			If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them.
			Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives
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			Tuesday, November 20, 2007
			The Posting, It Will Be Light
			I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.
			• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.
			• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.
			• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.
			OK, gotta go. Enjoy.
			Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame
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			The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy
			According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.
			When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.
			Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.
			All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.
			But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.
			McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.
			The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."
			This would require the foreign concept of empathy.
			Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani
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			Almost More Disgusting
			Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.
			Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.
			It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.
			One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills.
			He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.
			Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.
			A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.
			"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.
			Happy Thanksgiving!
			Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers
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			A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California
			Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.
			Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.
			Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.
			Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail.
			Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement
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			Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money
			The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)
			This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.
			Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:
			MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country
			I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document
			There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.
			The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.
			Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:
			QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?
			PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.
			QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –
			PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?
			QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –
			PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.
			QUESTION: There ought to be –
			PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –
			QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?
			PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…
			QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.
			There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls.
			Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding
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			CA Lawsuit Watch
			Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.
			Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.
			The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.
			If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint
			The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.
			That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.
			Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.
			Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.
			Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.
			But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.
			The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that.
			Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines
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			Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary
			9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.
			Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy.
			When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?
			Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.
			Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair
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			The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration
			I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).
			Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.
			President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, ''has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.''
			Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.
			Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.
			''We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy,'' Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement
			Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice
			Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.
			That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a ''thorough review'' of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.
			Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President.
			Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror
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			They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It
			With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.
			The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.
			Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.
			There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so.
			Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy
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			Monday, November 19, 2007
			The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option
			Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.
			A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.
			John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.
			Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.
			There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.
			As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.
			First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.
			So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.
			The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.
			One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.
			For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.
			It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.
			The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.
			Emptywheel had the same idea today.
			I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.
			Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.
			If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties.
			Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs
			The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.
			On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.
			October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.
			But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)
			Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.
			"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.
			The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."
			Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?
			Ever hear of trash-outs?
			“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”
			“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”
			“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”
			“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”
			“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”
			Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.
			This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation.
			Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages
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			Write A New Story
			I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.
			WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
			Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.
			Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.
			By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.
			Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State
			Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.
			Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.
			All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild
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			Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation
			The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.
			The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.
			As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.
			His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.
			About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....
			Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away.
			Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert
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			More Iowa Stories
			It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.
			On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.
			Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."
			On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."
			Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.
			Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.
			Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.
			King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.
			"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."
			As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.
			Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.
			“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”
			The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.
			“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”
			Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani
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			Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go
			John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.
			Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.
			McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.
			The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.
			And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.
			No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing.
			Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani
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			They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought
			Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.
			After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.
			Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.
			We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.
			Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans
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			Monday Random Flickr Blogging
			Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.
			"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."
			"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"
			"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."
			"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!"
			Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan
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			CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?
			This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.
			"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.
			Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.
			Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.
			This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay."
			Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos
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			Most Predictable Court Case Ever
			In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.
			The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.
			This dictatorin' is easy!
			Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Iraq 4-Evah
			So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.
			The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.
			Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.
			So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario.
			Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle
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			Comments | Trackback They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle
			There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.
			This has been the obligatory monthly sports post.
			Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia
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			Elections Have Consequences
			John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:
			Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.
			The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.
			The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions
			Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.
			Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.
			It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.
			George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.
			Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:
			"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."
			You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.
			Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.
			Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.
			UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:
			Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.
			Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles.
			Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland
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			Goalposts Flying Down The Field
			Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.
			And yet:
			With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.
			Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.
			The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.
			Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.
			The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.
			Quite a pickle, ay?
			By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.
			Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.
			Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.
			Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.
			The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious.
			Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain
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			Saturday, November 24, 2007
			The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism
			Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.
			The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him.
			Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard
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			Friday, November 23, 2007
			The New Meaning Of Probable Cause
			"Do you want a warrant?"
			"Probably."
			"Why?"
			"'Cause."
			Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.
			In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.
			Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.
			Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.
			By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT.
			Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping
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			The Thing About The Right
			using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.
			I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!"
			Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq
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			Black Friday Random Ten
			Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:
			People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine
			Beercan - Beck
			Come As You Are - Nirvana
			On A Plain - Nirvana
			Down To This - Soul Coughing
			Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova
			Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne
			Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff
			Ready For Action - The Crystal Method
			Thursday - Morphine
			Labels: music, Random Ten
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			Crossing the Line
			According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.
			"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."
			The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.
			Freedom's on the march.
			Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Thursday, November 22, 2007
			And A Happy Turkey Day To You
			Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening!
			Labels: meta
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			Joe Klein Takes Orders Well
			Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:
			It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.
			Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!
			Greenwald smacks this down:
			Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?
			Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"
			I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in.
			Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping
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			Wednesday, November 21, 2007
			Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy
			So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.
			There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.
			Erik has more at DKos.
			UPDATE: And more shenanigans.
			The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions
			Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.
			In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.
			If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them.
			Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives
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			Tuesday, November 20, 2007
			The Posting, It Will Be Light
			I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.
			• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.
			• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.
			• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.
			OK, gotta go. Enjoy.
			Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame
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			The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy
			According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.
			When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.
			Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.
			All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.
			But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.
			McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.
			The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."
			This would require the foreign concept of empathy.
			Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani
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			Almost More Disgusting
			Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.
			Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.
			It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.
			One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills.
			He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.
			Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.
			A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.
			"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.
			Happy Thanksgiving!
			Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers
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			A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California
			Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.
			Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.
			Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.
			Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail.
			Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement
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			Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money
			The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)
			This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.
			Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:
			MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country
			I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document
			There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.
			The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.
			Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:
			QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?
			PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.
			QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –
			PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?
			QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –
			PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.
			QUESTION: There ought to be –
			PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –
			QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?
			PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…
			QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.
			There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls.
			Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding
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			CA Lawsuit Watch
			Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.
			Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.
			The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.
			If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint
			The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.
			That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.
			Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.
			Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.
			Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.
			But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.
			The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that.
			Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines
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			Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary
			9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.
			Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy.
			When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?
			Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.
			Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair
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			The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration
			I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).
			Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.
			President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, ''has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.''
			Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.
			Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.
			''We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy,'' Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement
			Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice
			Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.
			That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a ''thorough review'' of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.
			Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President.
			Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror
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			They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It
			With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.
			The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.
			Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.
			There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so.
			Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy
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			Monday, November 19, 2007
			The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option
			Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.
			A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.
			John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.
			Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.
			There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.
			As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.
			First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.
			So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.
			The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.
			One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.
			For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.
			It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.
			The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.
			Emptywheel had the same idea today.
			I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.
			Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.
			If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties.
			Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs
			The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.
			On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.
			October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.
			But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)
			Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.
			"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.
			The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."
			Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?
			Ever hear of trash-outs?
			“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”
			“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”
			“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”
			“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”
			“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”
			Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.
			This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation.
			Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages
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			Write A New Story
			I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.
			WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
			Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.
			Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.
			By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.
			Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State
			Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.
			Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.
			All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild
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			Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation
			The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.
			The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.
			As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.
			His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.
			About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....
			Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away.
			Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert
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			More Iowa Stories
			It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.
			On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.
			Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."
			On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."
			Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.
			Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.
			Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.
			King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.
			"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."
			As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.
			Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.
			“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”
			The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.
			“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”
			Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there.
			Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani
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			Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go
			John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.
			Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.
			McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.
			The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.
			And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.
			No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing.
			Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani
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			They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought
			Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.
			After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.
			Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.
			We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.
			Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans
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			Monday Random Flickr Blogging
			Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.
			"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."
			"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"
			"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."
			"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!"
			Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan
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			CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?
			This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.
			"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.
			Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.
			Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.
			This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay."
			Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos
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			Most Predictable Court Case Ever
			In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.
			The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.
			This dictatorin' is easy!
			Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf
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			Iraq 4-Evah
			So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.
			The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.
			Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.
			So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario.
			Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle
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Revision as of 15:57, 26 November 2007

They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle

There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.

This has been the obligatory monthly sports post. Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia

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Comments | Trackback Elections Have Consequences

John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:

Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.

The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.

The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions

Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.

Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.

It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.

George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.

Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:

"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."

You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.

Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.

Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.

UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:

Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.

Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles. Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland

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Comments | Trackback Goalposts Flying Down The Field

Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.

And yet:

With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.

Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.

The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.

Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.

The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.

Quite a pickle, ay?

By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.

Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.

Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.

Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.

The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious. Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain

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Comments | Trackback Saturday, November 24, 2007 The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism

Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.

The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him. Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard

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Comments | Trackback Friday, November 23, 2007 The New Meaning Of Probable Cause

"Do you want a warrant?"

"Probably."

"Why?"

"'Cause."

Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.

In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.

Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.

Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.

By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT. Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback The Thing About The Right

using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.

I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!" Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq

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Comments | Trackback Black Friday Random Ten

Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:

People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine Beercan - Beck Come As You Are - Nirvana On A Plain - Nirvana Down To This - Soul Coughing Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff Ready For Action - The Crystal Method Thursday - Morphine Labels: music, Random Ten

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Comments | Trackback Crossing the Line

According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.

"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."

The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.

Freedom's on the march. Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Thursday, November 22, 2007 And A Happy Turkey Day To You

Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening! Labels: meta

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Comments | Trackback Joe Klein Takes Orders Well

Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:

It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.

Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!

Greenwald smacks this down:

Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?

Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"

I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in. Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback Wednesday, November 21, 2007 Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy

So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.

There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.

Erik has more at DKos.

UPDATE: And more shenanigans.

The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions

Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.

In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.

If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them. Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives

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Comments | Trackback Tuesday, November 20, 2007 The Posting, It Will Be Light

I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.

• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.

• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.

• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.

OK, gotta go. Enjoy. Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame

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Comments | Trackback The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy

According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.

When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.

Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.

All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.

But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.

McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.

The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."

This would require the foreign concept of empathy. Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Almost More Disgusting

Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.

Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.

It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.

One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills. He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.

Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.

A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.

"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.

Happy Thanksgiving! Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers

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Comments | Trackback A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California

Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.

Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.

Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.

Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail. Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement

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Comment (1) | Trackback Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money

The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)

This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.

Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:

MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country

I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document

There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.

The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.

Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:

QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?

PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.

QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –

PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?

QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –

PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.

QUESTION: There ought to be –

PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –

QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?

PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…

QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.

There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls. Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding

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Comments | Trackback CA Lawsuit Watch

Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.

Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.

The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.

If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint

The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.

That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.

Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.

Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.

Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.

But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.

The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that. Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines

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Comments | Trackback Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary

9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.

Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy. When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?

Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.

Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair

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Comment (1) | Trackback The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration

I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).

Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.

President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.

Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.

Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.

We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy, Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement

Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice

Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.

That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a thorough review of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.

Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President. Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror

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Comments | Trackback They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It

With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.

The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.

Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.

There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so. Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy

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Comments | Trackback Monday, November 19, 2007 The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option

Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.

A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.

John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.

Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.

There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.

As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.

First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.

So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.

The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.

One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.

For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.

It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.

The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.

Emptywheel had the same idea today.

I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.

Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.

If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties. Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs

The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.

On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.

October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.

But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)

Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.

"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.

The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."

Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?

Ever hear of trash-outs?

“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”

“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”

“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”

“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”

“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”

Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.

This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation. Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages

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Comments | Trackback Write A New Story

I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.

Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.

By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.

Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State

Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.

Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.

All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild

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Comments | Trackback Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation

The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.

The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.

As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.

His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.

About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....

Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away. Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert

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Comments | Trackback More Iowa Stories

It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.

On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.

Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."

On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."

Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.

Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.

Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.

King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.

"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."

As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.

Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.

“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”

The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.

“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”

Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go

John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.

Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.

McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.

The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.

And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.

No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing. Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought

Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.

After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.

Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.

We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.

Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans

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Comments | Trackback Monday Random Flickr Blogging

Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.

"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."

"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"

"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."

"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!" Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan

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Comments | Trackback CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?

This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.

"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.

Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.

Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.

This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay." Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos

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Comments | Trackback Most Predictable Court Case Ever

In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.

The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.

This dictatorin' is easy! Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Iraq 4-Evah

So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.

The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.

Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.

So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario. Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle

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Comments | Trackback They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle

There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.

This has been the obligatory monthly sports post. Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia

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Comments | Trackback Elections Have Consequences

John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:

Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.

The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.

The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions

Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.

Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.

It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.

George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.

Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:

"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."

You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.

Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.

Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.

UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:

Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.

Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles. Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland

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Comments | Trackback Goalposts Flying Down The Field

Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.

And yet:

With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.

Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.

The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.

Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.

The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.

Quite a pickle, ay?

By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.

Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.

Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.

Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.

The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious. Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain

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Comments | Trackback Saturday, November 24, 2007 The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism

Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.

The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him. Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard

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Comments | Trackback Friday, November 23, 2007 The New Meaning Of Probable Cause

"Do you want a warrant?"

"Probably."

"Why?"

"'Cause."

Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.

In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.

Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.

Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.

By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT. Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback The Thing About The Right

using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.

I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!" Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq

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Comments | Trackback Black Friday Random Ten

Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:

People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine Beercan - Beck Come As You Are - Nirvana On A Plain - Nirvana Down To This - Soul Coughing Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff Ready For Action - The Crystal Method Thursday - Morphine Labels: music, Random Ten

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Comments | Trackback Crossing the Line

According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.

"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."

The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.

Freedom's on the march. Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Thursday, November 22, 2007 And A Happy Turkey Day To You

Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening! Labels: meta

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Comments | Trackback Joe Klein Takes Orders Well

Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:

It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.

Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!

Greenwald smacks this down:

Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?

Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"

I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in. Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback Wednesday, November 21, 2007 Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy

So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.

There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.

Erik has more at DKos.

UPDATE: And more shenanigans.

The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions

Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.

In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.

If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them. Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives

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Comments | Trackback Tuesday, November 20, 2007 The Posting, It Will Be Light

I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.

• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.

• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.

• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.

OK, gotta go. Enjoy. Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame

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Comments | Trackback The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy

According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.

When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.

Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.

All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.

But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.

McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.

The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."

This would require the foreign concept of empathy. Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Almost More Disgusting

Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.

Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.

It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.

One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills. He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.

Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.

A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.

"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.

Happy Thanksgiving! Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers

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Comments | Trackback A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California

Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.

Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.

Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.

Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail. Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement

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Comment (1) | Trackback Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money

The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)

This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.

Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:

MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country

I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document

There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.

The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.

Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:

QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?

PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.

QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –

PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?

QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –

PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.

QUESTION: There ought to be –

PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –

QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?

PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…

QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.

There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls. Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding

dashed off by dday at 12:00 PM View blog reactions

Comments | Trackback CA Lawsuit Watch

Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.

Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.

The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.

If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint

The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.

That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.

Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.

Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.

Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.

But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.

The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that. Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines

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Comments | Trackback Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary

9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.

Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy. When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?

Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.

Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair

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Comment (1) | Trackback The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration

I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).

Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.

President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.

Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.

Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.

We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy, Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement

Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice

Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.

That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a thorough review of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.

Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President. Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror

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Comments | Trackback They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It

With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.

The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.

Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.

There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so. Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy

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Comments | Trackback Monday, November 19, 2007 The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option

Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.

A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.

John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.

Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.

There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.

As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.

First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.

So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.

The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.

One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.

For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.

It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.

The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.

Emptywheel had the same idea today.

I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.

Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.

If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties. Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs

The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.

On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.

October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.

But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)

Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.

"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.

The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."

Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?

Ever hear of trash-outs?

“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”

“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”

“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”

“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”

“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”

Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.

This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation. Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages

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Comments | Trackback Write A New Story

I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.

Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.

By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.

Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State

Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.

Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.

All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild

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Comments | Trackback Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation

The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.

The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.

As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.

His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.

About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....

Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away. Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert

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Comments | Trackback More Iowa Stories

It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.

On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.

Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."

On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."

Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.

Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.

Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.

King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.

"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."

As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.

Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.

“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”

The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.

“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”

Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go

John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.

Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.

McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.

The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.

And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.

No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing. Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought

Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.

After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.

Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.

We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.

Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans

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Comments | Trackback Monday Random Flickr Blogging

Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.

"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."

"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"

"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."

"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!" Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan

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Comments | Trackback CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?

This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.

"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.

Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.

Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.

This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay." Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos

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Comments | Trackback Most Predictable Court Case Ever

In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.

The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.

This dictatorin' is easy! Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Iraq 4-Evah

So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.

The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.

Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.

So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario. Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle

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Comments | Trackback They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle

There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.

This has been the obligatory monthly sports post. Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia

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Comments | Trackback Elections Have Consequences

John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:

Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.

The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.

The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions

Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.

Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.

It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.

George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.

Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:

"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."

You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.

Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.

Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.

UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:

Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.

Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles. Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland

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Comments | Trackback Goalposts Flying Down The Field

Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.

And yet:

With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.

Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.

The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.

Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.

The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.

Quite a pickle, ay?

By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.

Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.

Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.

Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.

The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious. Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain

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Comments | Trackback Saturday, November 24, 2007 The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism

Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.

The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him. Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard

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Comments | Trackback Friday, November 23, 2007 The New Meaning Of Probable Cause

"Do you want a warrant?"

"Probably."

"Why?"

"'Cause."

Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.

In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.

Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.

Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.

By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT. Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback The Thing About The Right

using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.

I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!" Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq

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Comments | Trackback Black Friday Random Ten

Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:

People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine Beercan - Beck Come As You Are - Nirvana On A Plain - Nirvana Down To This - Soul Coughing Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff Ready For Action - The Crystal Method Thursday - Morphine Labels: music, Random Ten

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Comments | Trackback Crossing the Line

According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.

"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."

The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.

Freedom's on the march. Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Thursday, November 22, 2007 And A Happy Turkey Day To You

Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening! Labels: meta

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Comments | Trackback Joe Klein Takes Orders Well

Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:

It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.

Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!

Greenwald smacks this down:

Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?

Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"

I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in. Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback Wednesday, November 21, 2007 Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy

So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.

There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.

Erik has more at DKos.

UPDATE: And more shenanigans.

The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions

Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.

In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.

If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them. Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives

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Comments | Trackback Tuesday, November 20, 2007 The Posting, It Will Be Light

I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.

• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.

• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.

• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.

OK, gotta go. Enjoy. Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame

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Comments | Trackback The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy

According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.

When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.

Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.

All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.

But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.

McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.

The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."

This would require the foreign concept of empathy. Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Almost More Disgusting

Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.

Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.

It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.

One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills. He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.

Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.

A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.

"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.

Happy Thanksgiving! Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers

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Comments | Trackback A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California

Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.

Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.

Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.

Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail. Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement

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Comment (1) | Trackback Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money

The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)

This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.

Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:

MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country

I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document

There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.

The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.

Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:

QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?

PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.

QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –

PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?

QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –

PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.

QUESTION: There ought to be –

PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –

QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?

PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…

QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.

There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls. Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding

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Comments | Trackback CA Lawsuit Watch

Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.

Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.

The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.

If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint

The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.

That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.

Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.

Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.

Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.

But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.

The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that. Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines

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Comments | Trackback Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary

9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.

Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy. When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?

Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.

Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair

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Comment (1) | Trackback The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration

I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).

Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.

President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.

Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.

Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.

We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy, Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement

Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice

Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.

That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a thorough review of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.

Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President. Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror

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Comments | Trackback They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It

With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.

The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.

Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.

There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so. Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy

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Comments | Trackback Monday, November 19, 2007 The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option

Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.

A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.

John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.

Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.

There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.

As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.

First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.

So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.

The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.

One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.

For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.

It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.

The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.

Emptywheel had the same idea today.

I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.

Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.

If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties. Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs

The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.

On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.

October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.

But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)

Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.

"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.

The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."

Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?

Ever hear of trash-outs?

“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”

“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”

“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”

“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”

“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”

Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.

This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation. Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages

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Comments | Trackback Write A New Story

I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.

Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.

By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.

Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State

Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.

Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.

All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild

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Comments | Trackback Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation

The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.

The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.

As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.

His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.

About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....

Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away. Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert

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Comments | Trackback More Iowa Stories

It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.

On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.

Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."

On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."

Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.

Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.

Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.

King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.

"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."

As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.

Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.

“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”

The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.

“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”

Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go

John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.

Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.

McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.

The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.

And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.

No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing. Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought

Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.

After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.

Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.

We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.

Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans

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Comments | Trackback Monday Random Flickr Blogging

Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.

"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."

"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"

"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."

"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!" Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan

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Comments | Trackback CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?

This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.

"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.

Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.

Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.

This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay." Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos

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Comments | Trackback Most Predictable Court Case Ever

In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.

The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.

This dictatorin' is easy! Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Iraq 4-Evah

So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.

The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.

Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.

So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario. Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle

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Comments | Trackback They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle

There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.

This has been the obligatory monthly sports post. Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia

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Comments | Trackback Elections Have Consequences

John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:

Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.

The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.

The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions

Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.

Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.

It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.

George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.

Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:

"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."

You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.

Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.

Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.

UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:

Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.

Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles. Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland

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Comments | Trackback Goalposts Flying Down The Field

Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.

And yet:

With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.

Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.

The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.

Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.

The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.

Quite a pickle, ay?

By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.

Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.

Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.

Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.

The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious. Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain

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Comments | Trackback Saturday, November 24, 2007 The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism

Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.

The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him. Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard

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Comments | Trackback Friday, November 23, 2007 The New Meaning Of Probable Cause

"Do you want a warrant?"

"Probably."

"Why?"

"'Cause."

Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.

In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.

Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.

Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.

By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT. Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback The Thing About The Right

using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.

I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!" Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq

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Comments | Trackback Black Friday Random Ten

Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:

People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine Beercan - Beck Come As You Are - Nirvana On A Plain - Nirvana Down To This - Soul Coughing Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff Ready For Action - The Crystal Method Thursday - Morphine Labels: music, Random Ten

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Comments | Trackback Crossing the Line

According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.

"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."

The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.

Freedom's on the march. Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Thursday, November 22, 2007 And A Happy Turkey Day To You

Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening! Labels: meta

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Comments | Trackback Joe Klein Takes Orders Well

Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:

It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.

Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!

Greenwald smacks this down:

Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?

Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"

I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in. Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback Wednesday, November 21, 2007 Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy

So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.

There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.

Erik has more at DKos.

UPDATE: And more shenanigans.

The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions

Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.

In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.

If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them. Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives

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Comments | Trackback Tuesday, November 20, 2007 The Posting, It Will Be Light

I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.

• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.

• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.

• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.

OK, gotta go. Enjoy. Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame

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Comments | Trackback The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy

According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.

When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.

Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.

All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.

But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.

McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.

The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."

This would require the foreign concept of empathy. Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Almost More Disgusting

Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.

Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.

It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.

One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills. He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.

Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.

A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.

"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.

Happy Thanksgiving! Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers

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Comments | Trackback A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California

Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.

Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.

Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.

Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail. Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement

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Comment (1) | Trackback Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money

The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)

This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.

Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:

MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country

I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document

There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.

The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.

Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:

QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?

PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.

QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –

PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?

QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –

PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.

QUESTION: There ought to be –

PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –

QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?

PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…

QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.

There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls. Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding

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Comments | Trackback CA Lawsuit Watch

Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.

Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.

The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.

If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint

The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.

That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.

Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.

Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.

Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.

But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.

The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that. Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines

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Comments | Trackback Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary

9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.

Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy. When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?

Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.

Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair

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Comment (1) | Trackback The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration

I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).

Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.

President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.

Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.

Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.

We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy, Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement

Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice

Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.

That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a thorough review of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.

Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President. Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror

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Comments | Trackback They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It

With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.

The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.

Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.

There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so. Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy

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Comments | Trackback Monday, November 19, 2007 The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option

Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.

A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.

John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.

Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.

There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.

As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.

First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.

So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.

The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.

One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.

For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.

It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.

The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.

Emptywheel had the same idea today.

I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.

Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.

If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties. Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs

The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.

On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.

October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.

But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)

Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.

"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.

The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."

Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?

Ever hear of trash-outs?

“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”

“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”

“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”

“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”

“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”

Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.

This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation. Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages

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Comments | Trackback Write A New Story

I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.

Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.

By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.

Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State

Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.

Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.

All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild

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Comments | Trackback Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation

The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.

The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.

As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.

His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.

About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....

Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away. Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert

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Comments | Trackback More Iowa Stories

It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.

On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.

Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."

On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."

Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.

Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.

Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.

King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.

"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."

As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.

Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.

“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”

The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.

“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”

Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go

John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.

Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.

McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.

The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.

And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.

No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing. Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought

Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.

After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.

Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.

We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.

Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans

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Comments | Trackback Monday Random Flickr Blogging

Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.

"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."

"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"

"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."

"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!" Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan

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Comments | Trackback CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?

This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.

"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.

Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.

Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.

This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay." Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos

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Comments | Trackback Most Predictable Court Case Ever

In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.

The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.

This dictatorin' is easy! Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Iraq 4-Evah

So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.

The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.

Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.

So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario. Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle

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Comments | Trackback They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle

There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.

This has been the obligatory monthly sports post. Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia

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Comments | Trackback Elections Have Consequences

John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:

Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.

The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.

The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions

Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.

Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.

It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.

George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.

Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:

"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."

You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.

Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.

Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.

UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:

Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.

Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles. Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland

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Comments | Trackback Goalposts Flying Down The Field

Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.

And yet:

With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.

Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.

The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.

Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.

The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.

Quite a pickle, ay?

By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.

Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.

Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.

Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.

The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious. Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain

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Comments | Trackback Saturday, November 24, 2007 The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism

Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.

The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him. Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard

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Comments | Trackback Friday, November 23, 2007 The New Meaning Of Probable Cause

"Do you want a warrant?"

"Probably."

"Why?"

"'Cause."

Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.

In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.

Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.

Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.

By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT. Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback The Thing About The Right

using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.

I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!" Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq

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Comments | Trackback Black Friday Random Ten

Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:

People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine Beercan - Beck Come As You Are - Nirvana On A Plain - Nirvana Down To This - Soul Coughing Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff Ready For Action - The Crystal Method Thursday - Morphine Labels: music, Random Ten

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Comments | Trackback Crossing the Line

According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.

"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."

The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.

Freedom's on the march. Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Thursday, November 22, 2007 And A Happy Turkey Day To You

Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening! Labels: meta

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Comments | Trackback Joe Klein Takes Orders Well

Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:

It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.

Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!

Greenwald smacks this down:

Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?

Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"

I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in. Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback Wednesday, November 21, 2007 Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy

So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.

There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.

Erik has more at DKos.

UPDATE: And more shenanigans.

The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions

Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.

In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.

If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them. Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives

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Comments | Trackback Tuesday, November 20, 2007 The Posting, It Will Be Light

I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.

• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.

• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.

• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.

OK, gotta go. Enjoy. Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame

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Comments | Trackback The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy

According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.

When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.

Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.

All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.

But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.

McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.

The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."

This would require the foreign concept of empathy. Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Almost More Disgusting

Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.

Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.

It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.

One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills. He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.

Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.

A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.

"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.

Happy Thanksgiving! Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers

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Comments | Trackback A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California

Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.

Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.

Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.

Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail. Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement

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Comment (1) | Trackback Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money

The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)

This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.

Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:

MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country

I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document

There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.

The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.

Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:

QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?

PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.

QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –

PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?

QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –

PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.

QUESTION: There ought to be –

PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –

QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?

PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…

QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.

There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls. Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding

dashed off by dday at 12:00 PM View blog reactions

Comments | Trackback CA Lawsuit Watch

Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.

Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.

The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.

If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint

The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.

That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.

Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.

Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.

Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.

But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.

The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that. Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines

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Comments | Trackback Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary

9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.

Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy. When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?

Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.

Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair

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Comment (1) | Trackback The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration

I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).

Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.

President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.

Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.

Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.

We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy, Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement

Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice

Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.

That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a thorough review of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.

Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President. Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror

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Comments | Trackback They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It

With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.

The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.

Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.

There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so. Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy

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Comments | Trackback Monday, November 19, 2007 The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option

Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.

A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.

John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.

Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.

There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.

As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.

First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.

So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.

The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.

One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.

For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.

It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.

The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.

Emptywheel had the same idea today.

I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.

Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.

If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties. Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs

The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.

On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.

October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.

But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)

Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.

"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.

The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."

Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?

Ever hear of trash-outs?

“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”

“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”

“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”

“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”

“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”

Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.

This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation. Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages

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Comments | Trackback Write A New Story

I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.

Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.

By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.

Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State

Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.

Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.

All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild

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Comments | Trackback Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation

The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.

The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.

As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.

His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.

About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....

Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away. Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert

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Comments | Trackback More Iowa Stories

It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.

On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.

Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."

On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."

Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.

Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.

Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.

King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.

"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."

As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.

Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.

“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”

The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.

“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”

Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go

John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.

Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.

McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.

The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.

And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.

No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing. Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought

Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.

After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.

Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.

We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.

Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans

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Comments | Trackback Monday Random Flickr Blogging

Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.

"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."

"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"

"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."

"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!" Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan

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Comments | Trackback CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?

This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.

"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.

Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.

Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.

This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay." Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos

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Comments | Trackback Most Predictable Court Case Ever

In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.

The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.

This dictatorin' is easy! Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Iraq 4-Evah

So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.

The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.

Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.

So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario. Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle

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Comments | Trackback They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle

There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.

This has been the obligatory monthly sports post. Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia

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Comments | Trackback Elections Have Consequences

John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:

Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.

The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.

The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions

Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.

Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.

It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.

George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.

Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:

"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."

You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.

Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.

Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.

UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:

Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.

Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles. Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland

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Comments | Trackback Goalposts Flying Down The Field

Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.

And yet:

With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.

Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.

The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.

Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.

The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.

Quite a pickle, ay?

By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.

Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.

Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.

Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.

The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious. Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain

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Comments | Trackback Saturday, November 24, 2007 The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism

Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.

The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him. Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard

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Comments | Trackback Friday, November 23, 2007 The New Meaning Of Probable Cause

"Do you want a warrant?"

"Probably."

"Why?"

"'Cause."

Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.

In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.

Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.

Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.

By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT. Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback The Thing About The Right

using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.

I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!" Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq

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Comments | Trackback Black Friday Random Ten

Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:

People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine Beercan - Beck Come As You Are - Nirvana On A Plain - Nirvana Down To This - Soul Coughing Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff Ready For Action - The Crystal Method Thursday - Morphine Labels: music, Random Ten

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Comments | Trackback Crossing the Line

According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.

"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."

The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.

Freedom's on the march. Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Thursday, November 22, 2007 And A Happy Turkey Day To You

Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening! Labels: meta

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Comments | Trackback Joe Klein Takes Orders Well

Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:

It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.

Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!

Greenwald smacks this down:

Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?

Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"

I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in. Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback Wednesday, November 21, 2007 Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy

So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.

There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.

Erik has more at DKos.

UPDATE: And more shenanigans.

The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions

Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.

In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.

If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them. Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives

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Comments | Trackback Tuesday, November 20, 2007 The Posting, It Will Be Light

I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.

• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.

• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.

• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.

OK, gotta go. Enjoy. Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame

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Comments | Trackback The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy

According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.

When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.

Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.

All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.

But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.

McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.

The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."

This would require the foreign concept of empathy. Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Almost More Disgusting

Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.

Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.

It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.

One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills. He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.

Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.

A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.

"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.

Happy Thanksgiving! Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers

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Comments | Trackback A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California

Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.

Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.

Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.

Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail. Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement

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Comment (1) | Trackback Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money

The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)

This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.

Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:

MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country

I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document

There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.

The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.

Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:

QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?

PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.

QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –

PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?

QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –

PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.

QUESTION: There ought to be –

PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –

QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?

PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…

QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.

There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls. Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding

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Comments | Trackback CA Lawsuit Watch

Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.

Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.

The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.

If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint

The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.

That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.

Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.

Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.

Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.

But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.

The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that. Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines

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Comments | Trackback Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary

9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.

Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy. When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?

Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.

Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair

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Comment (1) | Trackback The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration

I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).

Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.

President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.

Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.

Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.

We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy, Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement

Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice

Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.

That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a thorough review of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.

Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President. Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror

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Comments | Trackback They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It

With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.

The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.

Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.

There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so. Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy

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Comments | Trackback Monday, November 19, 2007 The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option

Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.

A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.

John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.

Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.

There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.

As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.

First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.

So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.

The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.

One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.

For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.

It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.

The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.

Emptywheel had the same idea today.

I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.

Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.

If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties. Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs

The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.

On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.

October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.

But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)

Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.

"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.

The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."

Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?

Ever hear of trash-outs?

“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”

“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”

“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”

“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”

“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”

Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.

This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation. Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages

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Comments | Trackback Write A New Story

I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.

Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.

By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.

Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State

Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.

Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.

All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild

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Comments | Trackback Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation

The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.

The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.

As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.

His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.

About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....

Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away. Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert

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Comments | Trackback More Iowa Stories

It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.

On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.

Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."

On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."

Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.

Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.

Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.

King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.

"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."

As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.

Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.

“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”

The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.

“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”

Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go

John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.

Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.

McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.

The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.

And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.

No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing. Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought

Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.

After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.

Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.

We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.

Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans

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Comments | Trackback Monday Random Flickr Blogging

Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.

"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."

"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"

"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."

"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!" Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan

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Comments | Trackback CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?

This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.

"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.

Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.

Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.

This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay." Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos

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Comments | Trackback Most Predictable Court Case Ever

In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.

The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.

This dictatorin' is easy! Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Iraq 4-Evah

So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.

The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.

Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.

So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario. Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle

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Comments | Trackback They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle

There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.

This has been the obligatory monthly sports post. Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia

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Comments | Trackback Elections Have Consequences

John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:

Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.

The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.

The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions

Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.

Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.

It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.

George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.

Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:

"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."

You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.

Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.

Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.

UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:

Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.

Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles. Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland

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Comments | Trackback Goalposts Flying Down The Field

Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.

And yet:

With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.

Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.

The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.

Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.

The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.

Quite a pickle, ay?

By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.

Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.

Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.

Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.

The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious. Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain

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Comments | Trackback Saturday, November 24, 2007 The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism

Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.

The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him. Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard

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Comments | Trackback Friday, November 23, 2007 The New Meaning Of Probable Cause

"Do you want a warrant?"

"Probably."

"Why?"

"'Cause."

Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.

In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.

Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.

Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.

By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT. Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback The Thing About The Right

using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.

I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!" Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq

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Comments | Trackback Black Friday Random Ten

Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:

People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine Beercan - Beck Come As You Are - Nirvana On A Plain - Nirvana Down To This - Soul Coughing Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff Ready For Action - The Crystal Method Thursday - Morphine Labels: music, Random Ten

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Comments | Trackback Crossing the Line

According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.

"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."

The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.

Freedom's on the march. Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Thursday, November 22, 2007 And A Happy Turkey Day To You

Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening! Labels: meta

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Comments | Trackback Joe Klein Takes Orders Well

Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:

It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.

Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!

Greenwald smacks this down:

Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?

Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"

I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in. Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback Wednesday, November 21, 2007 Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy

So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.

There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.

Erik has more at DKos.

UPDATE: And more shenanigans.

The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions

Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.

In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.

If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them. Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives

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Comments | Trackback Tuesday, November 20, 2007 The Posting, It Will Be Light

I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.

• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.

• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.

• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.

OK, gotta go. Enjoy. Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame

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Comments | Trackback The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy

According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.

When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.

Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.

All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.

But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.

McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.

The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."

This would require the foreign concept of empathy. Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Almost More Disgusting

Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.

Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.

It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.

One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills. He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.

Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.

A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.

"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.

Happy Thanksgiving! Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers

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Comments | Trackback A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California

Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.

Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.

Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.

Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail. Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement

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Comment (1) | Trackback Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money

The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)

This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.

Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:

MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country

I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document

There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.

The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.

Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:

QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?

PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.

QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –

PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?

QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –

PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.

QUESTION: There ought to be –

PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –

QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?

PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…

QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.

There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls. Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding

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Comments | Trackback CA Lawsuit Watch

Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.

Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.

The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.

If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint

The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.

That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.

Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.

Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.

Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.

But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.

The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that. Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines

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Comments | Trackback Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary

9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.

Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy. When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?

Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.

Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair

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Comment (1) | Trackback The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration

I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).

Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.

President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.

Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.

Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.

We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy, Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement

Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice

Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.

That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a thorough review of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.

Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President. Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror

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Comments | Trackback They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It

With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.

The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.

Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.

There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so. Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy

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Comments | Trackback Monday, November 19, 2007 The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option

Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.

A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.

John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.

Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.

There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.

As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.

First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.

So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.

The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.

One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.

For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.

It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.

The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.

Emptywheel had the same idea today.

I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.

Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.

If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties. Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs

The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.

On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.

October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.

But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)

Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.

"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.

The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."

Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?

Ever hear of trash-outs?

“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”

“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”

“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”

“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”

“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”

Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.

This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation. Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages

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Comments | Trackback Write A New Story

I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.

Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.

By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.

Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State

Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.

Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.

All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild

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Comments | Trackback Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation

The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.

The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.

As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.

His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.

About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....

Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away. Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert

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Comments | Trackback More Iowa Stories

It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.

On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.

Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."

On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."

Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.

Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.

Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.

King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.

"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."

As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.

Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.

“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”

The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.

“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”

Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go

John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.

Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.

McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.

The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.

And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.

No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing. Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought

Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.

After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.

Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.

We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.

Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans

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Comments | Trackback Monday Random Flickr Blogging

Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.

"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."

"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"

"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."

"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!" Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan

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Comments | Trackback CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?

This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.

"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.

Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.

Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.

This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay." Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos

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Comments | Trackback Most Predictable Court Case Ever

In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.

The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.

This dictatorin' is easy! Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Iraq 4-Evah

So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.

The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.

Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.

So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario. Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle

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Comments | Trackback They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle

There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.

This has been the obligatory monthly sports post. Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia

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Comments | Trackback Elections Have Consequences

John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:

Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.

The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.

The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions

Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.

Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.

It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.

George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.

Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:

"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."

You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.

Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.

Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.

UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:

Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.

Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles. Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland

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Comments | Trackback Goalposts Flying Down The Field

Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.

And yet:

With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.

Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.

The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.

Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.

The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.

Quite a pickle, ay?

By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.

Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.

Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.

Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.

The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious. Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain

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Comments | Trackback Saturday, November 24, 2007 The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism

Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.

The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him. Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard

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Comments | Trackback Friday, November 23, 2007 The New Meaning Of Probable Cause

"Do you want a warrant?"

"Probably."

"Why?"

"'Cause."

Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.

In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.

Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.

Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.

By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT. Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback The Thing About The Right

using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.

I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!" Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq

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Comments | Trackback Black Friday Random Ten

Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:

People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine Beercan - Beck Come As You Are - Nirvana On A Plain - Nirvana Down To This - Soul Coughing Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff Ready For Action - The Crystal Method Thursday - Morphine Labels: music, Random Ten

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Comments | Trackback Crossing the Line

According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.

"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."

The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.

Freedom's on the march. Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Thursday, November 22, 2007 And A Happy Turkey Day To You

Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening! Labels: meta

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Comments | Trackback Joe Klein Takes Orders Well

Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:

It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.

Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!

Greenwald smacks this down:

Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?

Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"

I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in. Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback Wednesday, November 21, 2007 Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy

So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.

There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.

Erik has more at DKos.

UPDATE: And more shenanigans.

The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions

Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.

In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.

If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them. Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives

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Comments | Trackback Tuesday, November 20, 2007 The Posting, It Will Be Light

I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.

• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.

• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.

• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.

OK, gotta go. Enjoy. Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame

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Comments | Trackback The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy

According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.

When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.

Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.

All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.

But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.

McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.

The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."

This would require the foreign concept of empathy. Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Almost More Disgusting

Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.

Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.

It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.

One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills. He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.

Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.

A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.

"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.

Happy Thanksgiving! Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers

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Comments | Trackback A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California

Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.

Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.

Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.

Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail. Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement

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Comment (1) | Trackback Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money

The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)

This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.

Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:

MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country

I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document

There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.

The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.

Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:

QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?

PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.

QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –

PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?

QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –

PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.

QUESTION: There ought to be –

PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –

QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?

PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…

QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.

There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls. Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding

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Comments | Trackback CA Lawsuit Watch

Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.

Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.

The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.

If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint

The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.

That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.

Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.

Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.

Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.

But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.

The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that. Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines

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Comments | Trackback Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary

9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.

Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy. When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?

Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.

Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair

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Comment (1) | Trackback The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration

I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).

Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.

President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.

Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.

Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.

We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy, Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement

Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice

Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.

That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a thorough review of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.

Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President. Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror

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Comments | Trackback They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It

With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.

The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.

Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.

There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so. Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy

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Comments | Trackback Monday, November 19, 2007 The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option

Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.

A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.

John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.

Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.

There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.

As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.

First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.

So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.

The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.

One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.

For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.

It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.

The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.

Emptywheel had the same idea today.

I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.

Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.

If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties. Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs

The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.

On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.

October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.

But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)

Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.

"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.

The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."

Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?

Ever hear of trash-outs?

“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”

“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”

“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”

“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”

“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”

Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.

This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation. Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages

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Comments | Trackback Write A New Story

I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.

Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.

By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.

Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State

Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.

Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.

All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild

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Comments | Trackback Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation

The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.

The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.

As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.

His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.

About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....

Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away. Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert

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Comments | Trackback More Iowa Stories

It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.

On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.

Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."

On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."

Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.

Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.

Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.

King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.

"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."

As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.

Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.

“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”

The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.

“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”

Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go

John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.

Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.

McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.

The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.

And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.

No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing. Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought

Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.

After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.

Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.

We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.

Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans

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Comments | Trackback Monday Random Flickr Blogging

Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.

"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."

"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"

"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."

"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!" Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan

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Comments | Trackback CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?

This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.

"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.

Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.

Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.

This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay." Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos

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Comments | Trackback Most Predictable Court Case Ever

In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.

The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.

This dictatorin' is easy! Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Iraq 4-Evah

So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.

The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.

Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.

So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario. Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle

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Comments | Trackback They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle

There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.

This has been the obligatory monthly sports post. Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia

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Comments | Trackback Elections Have Consequences

John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:

Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.

The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.

The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions

Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.

Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.

It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.

George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.

Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:

"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."

You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.

Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.

Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.

UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:

Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.

Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles. Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland

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Comments | Trackback Goalposts Flying Down The Field

Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.

And yet:

With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.

Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.

The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.

Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.

The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.

Quite a pickle, ay?

By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.

Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.

Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.

Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.

The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious. Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain

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Comments | Trackback Saturday, November 24, 2007 The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism

Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.

The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him. Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard

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Comments | Trackback Friday, November 23, 2007 The New Meaning Of Probable Cause

"Do you want a warrant?"

"Probably."

"Why?"

"'Cause."

Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.

In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.

Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.

Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.

By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT. Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback The Thing About The Right

using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.

I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!" Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq

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Comments | Trackback Black Friday Random Ten

Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:

People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine Beercan - Beck Come As You Are - Nirvana On A Plain - Nirvana Down To This - Soul Coughing Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff Ready For Action - The Crystal Method Thursday - Morphine Labels: music, Random Ten

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Comments | Trackback Crossing the Line

According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.

"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."

The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.

Freedom's on the march. Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Thursday, November 22, 2007 And A Happy Turkey Day To You

Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening! Labels: meta

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Comments | Trackback Joe Klein Takes Orders Well

Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:

It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.

Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!

Greenwald smacks this down:

Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?

Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"

I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in. Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback Wednesday, November 21, 2007 Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy

So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.

There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.

Erik has more at DKos.

UPDATE: And more shenanigans.

The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions

Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.

In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.

If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them. Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives

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Comments | Trackback Tuesday, November 20, 2007 The Posting, It Will Be Light

I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.

• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.

• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.

• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.

OK, gotta go. Enjoy. Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame

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Comments | Trackback The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy

According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.

When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.

Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.

All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.

But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.

McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.

The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."

This would require the foreign concept of empathy. Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Almost More Disgusting

Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.

Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.

It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.

One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills. He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.

Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.

A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.

"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.

Happy Thanksgiving! Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers

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Comments | Trackback A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California

Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.

Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.

Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.

Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail. Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement

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Comment (1) | Trackback Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money

The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)

This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.

Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:

MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country

I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document

There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.

The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.

Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:

QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?

PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.

QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –

PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?

QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –

PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.

QUESTION: There ought to be –

PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –

QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?

PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…

QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.

There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls. Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding

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Comments | Trackback CA Lawsuit Watch

Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.

Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.

The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.

If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint

The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.

That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.

Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.

Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.

Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.

But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.

The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that. Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines

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Comments | Trackback Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary

9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.

Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy. When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?

Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.

Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair

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Comment (1) | Trackback The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration

I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).

Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.

President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.

Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.

Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.

We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy, Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement

Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice

Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.

That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a thorough review of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.

Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President. Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror

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Comments | Trackback They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It

With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.

The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.

Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.

There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so. Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy

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Comments | Trackback Monday, November 19, 2007 The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option

Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.

A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.

John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.

Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.

There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.

As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.

First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.

So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.

The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.

One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.

For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.

It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.

The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.

Emptywheel had the same idea today.

I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.

Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.

If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties. Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs

The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.

On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.

October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.

But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)

Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.

"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.

The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."

Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?

Ever hear of trash-outs?

“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”

“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”

“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”

“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”

“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”

Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.

This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation. Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages

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Comments | Trackback Write A New Story

I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.

Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.

By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.

Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State

Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.

Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.

All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild

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Comments | Trackback Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation

The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.

The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.

As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.

His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.

About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....

Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away. Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert

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Comments | Trackback More Iowa Stories

It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.

On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.

Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."

On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."

Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.

Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.

Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.

King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.

"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."

As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.

Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.

“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”

The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.

“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”

Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go

John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.

Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.

McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.

The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.

And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.

No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing. Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought

Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.

After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.

Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.

We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.

Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans

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Comments | Trackback Monday Random Flickr Blogging

Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.

"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."

"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"

"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."

"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!" Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan

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Comments | Trackback CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?

This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.

"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.

Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.

Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.

This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay." Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos

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Comments | Trackback Most Predictable Court Case Ever

In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.

The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.

This dictatorin' is easy! Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Iraq 4-Evah

So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.

The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.

Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.

So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario. Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle

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Comments | Trackback They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle

There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.

This has been the obligatory monthly sports post. Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia

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Comments | Trackback Elections Have Consequences

John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:

Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.

The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.

The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions

Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.

Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.

It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.

George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.

Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:

"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."

You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.

Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.

Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.

UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:

Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.

Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles. Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland

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Comments | Trackback Goalposts Flying Down The Field

Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.

And yet:

With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.

Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.

The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.

Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.

The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.

Quite a pickle, ay?

By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.

Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.

Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.

Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.

The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious. Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain

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Comments | Trackback Saturday, November 24, 2007 The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism

Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.

The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him. Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard

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Comments | Trackback Friday, November 23, 2007 The New Meaning Of Probable Cause

"Do you want a warrant?"

"Probably."

"Why?"

"'Cause."

Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.

In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.

Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.

Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.

By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT. Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback The Thing About The Right

using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.

I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!" Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq

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Comments | Trackback Black Friday Random Ten

Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:

People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine Beercan - Beck Come As You Are - Nirvana On A Plain - Nirvana Down To This - Soul Coughing Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff Ready For Action - The Crystal Method Thursday - Morphine Labels: music, Random Ten

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Comments | Trackback Crossing the Line

According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.

"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."

The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.

Freedom's on the march. Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Thursday, November 22, 2007 And A Happy Turkey Day To You

Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening! Labels: meta

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Comments | Trackback Joe Klein Takes Orders Well

Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:

It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.

Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!

Greenwald smacks this down:

Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?

Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"

I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in. Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback Wednesday, November 21, 2007 Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy

So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.

There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.

Erik has more at DKos.

UPDATE: And more shenanigans.

The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions

Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.

In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.

If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them. Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives

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Comments | Trackback Tuesday, November 20, 2007 The Posting, It Will Be Light

I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.

• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.

• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.

• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.

OK, gotta go. Enjoy. Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame

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Comments | Trackback The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy

According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.

When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.

Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.

All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.

But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.

McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.

The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."

This would require the foreign concept of empathy. Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Almost More Disgusting

Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.

Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.

It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.

One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills. He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.

Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.

A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.

"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.

Happy Thanksgiving! Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers

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Comments | Trackback A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California

Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.

Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.

Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.

Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail. Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement

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Comment (1) | Trackback Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money

The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)

This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.

Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:

MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country

I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document

There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.

The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.

Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:

QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?

PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.

QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –

PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?

QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –

PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.

QUESTION: There ought to be –

PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –

QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?

PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…

QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.

There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls. Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding

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Comments | Trackback CA Lawsuit Watch

Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.

Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.

The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.

If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint

The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.

That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.

Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.

Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.

Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.

But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.

The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that. Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines

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Comments | Trackback Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary

9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.

Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy. When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?

Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.

Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair

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Comment (1) | Trackback The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration

I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).

Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.

President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.

Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.

Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.

We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy, Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement

Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice

Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.

That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a thorough review of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.

Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President. Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror

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Comments | Trackback They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It

With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.

The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.

Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.

There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so. Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy

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Comments | Trackback Monday, November 19, 2007 The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option

Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.

A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.

John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.

Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.

There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.

As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.

First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.

So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.

The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.

One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.

For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.

It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.

The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.

Emptywheel had the same idea today.

I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.

Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.

If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties. Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs

The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.

On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.

October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.

But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)

Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.

"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.

The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."

Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?

Ever hear of trash-outs?

“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”

“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”

“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”

“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”

“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”

Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.

This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation. Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages

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Comments | Trackback Write A New Story

I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.

Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.

By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.

Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State

Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.

Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.

All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild

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Comments | Trackback Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation

The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.

The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.

As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.

His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.

About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....

Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away. Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert

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Comments | Trackback More Iowa Stories

It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.

On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.

Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."

On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."

Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.

Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.

Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.

King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.

"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."

As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.

Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.

“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”

The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.

“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”

Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go

John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.

Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.

McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.

The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.

And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.

No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing. Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought

Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.

After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.

Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.

We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.

Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans

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Comments | Trackback Monday Random Flickr Blogging

Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.

"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."

"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"

"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."

"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!" Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan

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Comments | Trackback CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?

This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.

"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.

Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.

Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.

This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay." Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos

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Comments | Trackback Most Predictable Court Case Ever

In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.

The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.

This dictatorin' is easy! Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Iraq 4-Evah

So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.

The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.

Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.

So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario. Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle

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Comments | Trackback They Should Give The Eagles That Game On Principle

There are no moral victories, but that was one. And the entire city of Philadelphia just raised their net wealth by covering that 24-point spread. Fun to be home and see a ballgame for once.

This has been the obligatory monthly sports post. Labels: Eagles, football, Patriots, Philadephia

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Comments | Trackback Elections Have Consequences

John Howard was one of the biggest political leaders blocking progress on global warming. His successor will not leave the same legacy:

Newly elected leader Kevin Rudd moved quickly Sunday to bring Australia into international talks on fighting global warming, and to head off potentially thorny relations with the United States and key Asian neighbors.

The emphatic victory for Rudd's Labor Party swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule, and puts it at odds with key security ally Washington on two crucial policy issues — Iraq and global warming.

The day after sweeping to power in general elections, Rudd went straight into work mode, holding meetings with government officials about the mechanics of signing the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions

Britain, New Zealand and Indonesia noted that Rudd's election would boost international efforts to address climate change — ousted Prime Minister John Howard had refused to sign the Kyoto pact.

Malaysia's leader said Rudd's plan to pull Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq would also improve the country's international standing, the Malaysian national news agency Bernama reported.

It's really the coalition of the shrinking, considering that Poland is about to withdraw all their troops from Iraq as well.

George Bush is an anvil around the neck of any world leader who bothered to have a photo-op with him. In this case, Kevin Rudd is going to mark a significant shift on one of the most pressing issues of our time. Indeed it may have driven him to victory. We have never seen in the United States if global warming could become a political issue with any great import. The Democrats are too busy putting Social Security back on the table to take notice of this, but at least in Australia, we see that you can build a political coalition around it.

Why the stunning loss? A key reason was Howard’s “head in the sand dust” response to the country’s brutal once-in-a-thousand year drought. As the UK’s Independent reported in April:

"… few scientists dispute the part played by climate change, which is making Australia hotter and drier….. Until a few months ago, Mr Howard and his ministers pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers."

You can read about Howard’s lame attempt to change his position rhetoric on global warming here.

Now we are the last industrialized nation with a leader who refuses to take any serious action — hopefully that dubious distinction will be corrected in next year’s presidential election.

Hopefully, some Democratic strategist with an ounce of foresight is listening - if they can be found.

UPDATE: Hilarious. Mark Steyn on John Howard:

Of all the doughty warriors of the Anglosphere, Howard, his Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and their colleagues had the best rhetoric on the present war, and I often wished the Bush Administration had emulated their plain speaking.

Yes, it was so successful Howard might become the first Prime Minister to lose his Parliamentary seat in Australia in 106 years! And, as Ygs notices, politicians aren't warriors. The wingnutosphere is so desperate to be modern-day versions of Ernest Hemingway fighting the fascists in Spain that they consider anyone on their side to be the second coming of Achilles. Labels: Australia, climate change, global warming, Iraq, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Poland

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Comments | Trackback Goalposts Flying Down The Field

Boy, watching the chat shows, you'd think Bush's awesome war strategy just needed six years or so to incubate, but now things are humming along, and anyone who doesn't think the surge is working is just deeply unserious and wedded to a narrative of defeat.

And yet:

With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.

Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.

The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.

Indeed, Maverick McCain was on ABC today parroting that the Iraqis will soon pass a reverse de-Baathification law and saying how great it is now that the Administration is following his awesome strategy.

The new set of goals are essentially meaningless. They don't move the country into any kind of legitimate political settlement. Indeed, there isn't really a settlement to be had, nor is there a country any more than a series of clans and well-armed tribes. The surge put fingers in the dyke. When the fingers come out, and they have to eventually (they already are, actually), there are no structures in place to avert collapse. However, keeping the fingers in the dyke makes the Iraqis dependent on an occupying force, and allows them to put off hard choices toward solutions.

Quite a pickle, ay?

By the way, Afghanistan's in disaster mode. The Taliban has control of half of the country and is closing in on Kabul. The White House is pessimistic.

Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating.

Overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made. … I would think that from standpoint, things are looking decent,” the intelligence official said.

Senior White House officials privately express pessimism about Afghanistan. There is anxiety over the current upheaval in neighboring Pakistan, where both the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain headquarters, logistical support and training camps along the Afghan border.

The President has made a mess of foreign policy that will take decades to untangle. The simpleton narrative of "we're winning now" is the only thing that's unserious. Labels: Afghanistan, foreign policy, George W. Bush, Iraq, Iraqi Parliament, John McCain

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Comments | Trackback Saturday, November 24, 2007 The Slow Death Of Global Conservatism

Australia joins Britain, Spain, and Italy. France and Germany, which had more social democratic models, are going somewhat in the other direction, but anyone who calls Sarkozy "conservative" is being wilfully blind.

The truth is that incumbency in the Bush era has threatened anyone and everyone who even tolerated him. Labels: Australia, conservatism, George W. Bush, John Howard

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Comments | Trackback Friday, November 23, 2007 The New Meaning Of Probable Cause

"Do you want a warrant?"

"Probably."

"Why?"

"'Cause."

Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.

In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.

Such requests run counter to the Justice Department's internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government's request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied.

Only us "civil liberties extremists" are worried about this, I guess.

By the way, Justice Department, I'll be out at dinner, but since my cell phone is with me, YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT. Labels: civil liberties, Justice Department, privacy, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback The Thing About The Right

using body counts as a measure to define success in Iraq is that it only takes a couple bad events to ruin their narrative and make them look foolish. That's why nobody interested in success in Iraq would actually peg it to casualty rates. A political settlement is a long-lasting solution. Ephemeral security benchmarks can be upset by a lone suicide bomber.

I don't understand why the wingnutosphere keeps falling for this. Shouting "We're winning" at the top of your lungs is not a strategy. Neither is pointing to a chart and saying "They're only killing as many people as they did in January 2006!" Labels: civilian casualties, Iraq

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Comments | Trackback Black Friday Random Ten

Sorry, not much time for tending the blog garden this week. Here's a musical interlude:

People Of The Sun - Rage Against The Machine Beercan - Beck Come As You Are - Nirvana On A Plain - Nirvana Down To This - Soul Coughing Once - Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova Planet Of Weed - Fountains Of Wayne Warm Sound - Jill Cunniff Ready For Action - The Crystal Method Thursday - Morphine Labels: music, Random Ten

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Comments | Trackback Crossing the Line

According to Bush, Musharraf hasn't crossed the line yet.

"He's been a loyal ally in fighting terrorists. He's also advanced democracy in Pakistan," Bush said. "He has said he's going to take off his uniform. He's said there will be elections. Today he released prisoners, and so far I've found him to be a man of his word."

The reason for this optimism is that, to Bush, suspending the Constitution, arresting the opposition, shutting down independent media, firing the Supreme Court and installing your own judges are all within the boundaries of what he calls democracy, because they're all things HE would do if given the chance.

Freedom's on the march. Labels: democracy promotion, George W. Bush, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Thursday, November 22, 2007 And A Happy Turkey Day To You

Please visit our fabulous archives for the remainder of the evening! Labels: meta

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Comments | Trackback Joe Klein Takes Orders Well

Responding to criticism of yet another horrible article about FISA that proves he doesn't have even a little understanding of intelligence gathering and civil liberties, Joke Line pens this candidate for the worst line of the year:

It would also have taken a middle path on immunity for telecoms--no blanket immunity (as is currently provided in the Senate draft), but selective immunity to those telecoms who can provide written proof that they were acting in response to a direct order from the government. That seems fair to me.

Apparently the President is allowed to give a "direct order" that supersedes all legal precedent and the entire governmental system of the United States. Snipers can kill Nancy Pelosi as long as they were responding to a "direct order," I guess. Halliburton? Now a state and eligible for federal funding. That's a "direct order"!

Greenwald smacks this down:

Seriously, in what country does Joe Klein live? Can someone please explain to him that in the United States, the President doesn't have the power to give "direct orders" to violate the law? And what kind of person who isn't in the military runs around talking about "direct orders" from the American President at all? That isn't how our country works. Presidents obviously don't have the power to give "direct orders" to anyone to break the law, let alone civilians and private companies. Why does that even need to be explained?

Klein also coins the phrase "civil liberties extremists." Come again? Are they for "extreme fairness"? "Extreme lack of racial profiling?" "Extreme suspicion of a powerful central government with no checks on its abilities?" "Extreme don't tase me, bro?"

I'd had a good stretch not reading Swampland. Damn Joke Line for writing something this stupid to pull me back in. Labels: civil liberties, FISA, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Klein, retroactive immunity, telecom industry, warrantless wiretapping

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Comments | Trackback Wednesday, November 21, 2007 Bigger Than Dirty Tricks: The Corruption of Direct Democracy

So I edited this video for Courage Campaign about the dirty tricks initiative. Erik Love went up to UC-Santa Barbara and explored the foul underbelly of paid signature gatherers.

There's no smoking gun here, and yet there's a lot of smoke. Clearly the petitioners are luring potential signers over there with the prospect of helping kids survive cancer, and then the dirty tricks initiative is sprung upon them. I think the most damning bit is when the signature gatherer admits that he has nothing to do with the procedures and he is just told how many signatures to get. There's a "by any means necessary" approach that goes beyond this initiative and to the signature gathering process as a whole. It's a scummy, dirty business, and this gives it a little bit of sunshine.

Erik has more at DKos.

UPDATE: And more shenanigans.

The chairman of a committee formed to fight a ballot initiative to change how California’s electoral college votes are apportioned has asked the city attorney here to investigate a report that a group collecting signatures for the initiative has offered food to homeless people in exchange for signing the petitions

Mr. Steyer’s letter, dated Nov. 19, stems from an article in The Los Angeles Downtown News that detailed reporters’ observations of signature gatherers asking homeless people on the city’s notorious Skid Row for their signatures to help qualify the electoral vote initiative and three others, as well as asking them to fill out voter registration cards.

In exchange, the paper reported, homeless people and those in nearby shelters were given Snickers bars, instant noodles and other snack foods.

If California outlawed initiatives tomorrow, I don't think I'd miss them. Labels: Courage Campaign, dirty tricks, Electoral College, initiatives

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Comments | Trackback Tuesday, November 20, 2007 The Posting, It Will Be Light

I'm getting ready to hop a redeye out to Philadelphia for the Thanksgiving holiday, so posting will be sporadic between now and then. In the meantime, here are a few flights of fancy.

• This is awesome. At the same school where the infamous "Don't tase me, bro" incident went down, Alberto Gonzales was heckled by a student in an Abu Ghraib jumpsuit and another holding a sign saying habeas corpus. Neither of those protesters were tortured or held without charges after being led away by police, AFAIK, so perhaps things are looking up.

• The big story is this excerpt from Scott McClellan's forthcoming book, which apparently blames Bush, Cheney and Rove for forcing him to lie about White House official's role in the outing of Valerie Plame, but somehow I think these will generate a lot more heat than light. I bet that McClellan offers little more in the book itself (that's the report, anyway), and will demur at any attempts to get him to testify before Congress about the issue. Chris Dodd is calling for investigations, but it's like, just throw it on the pile. It's clear that practically everyone in the White House committed crimes by illegally releasing the identity of Plame to reporters. That has been proven time and again. It came out in the trial. So far nobody has been held accountable, and we're four years gone from the outing. I want to be optimistic, but can't be.

• Troops leave, violence drops. It's really a simple formula. Worked in Basra, would work in the rest of Iraq. But we stay, accomplishing approximately nothing of substance instead of turning the country into a series of armed encampments.

OK, gotta go. Enjoy. Labels: Alberto Gonzales, Basra, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Iraq, Karl Rove, protests, Scott McClellan, Valerie Plame

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Comments | Trackback The Best Health Care System Money Can't Buy

According to Rudy 9iu11iani and the rest of the Right's Field, the American health insurance marketplace is clearly superior than a system of "socialized medicine". Gubmint-run health care will force Americans into long lines, rationed care, and stunted innovation. Interesting how they haven't learned from their own experiences with the US health care system. This of course is because most of them are rich enough to get the best care possible. They're simply unconcerned with the plight of the unwashed masses.

When Rudolph W. Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer in the spring of 2000, one thing he did not have to worry about was a lack of medical insurance.

Today, the former New York mayor joins two other cancer survivors in seeking the Republican presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain has been treated for melanoma, the most serious type of skin malignancy, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system.

All three have offered proposals with the stated aim of helping the 47 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance, including those with preexisting medical conditions.

But under the plans all three have put forward, cancer survivors such as themselves could not be sure of getting coverage -- especially if they were not already covered by a government or job-related plan and had to seek insurance as individuals.

McCain and 9iu11liani had government-run health care at the time of their illnesses. Fred Thompson is covered through the Screen Actors Guild. They simply aren't in touch with what most Americans who actually have to navigate the insurance system have to face. They want to depend on the ravages of the private market when they don't even depend on it themselves. The truth is that nobody with a pre-existing condition is going to come close to their wonderful market-driven health insurance. You'll either be denied off the bat or you won't be able to afford it.

The candidates "can't sit there and say they understand what people are going through, because they've got healthcare," (cancer patient Susan) Brown said. "We went through the same illness, however don't understand what it's like not to have health insurance."

This would require the foreign concept of empathy. Labels: Fred Thompson, health care, John McCain, pre-existing condition, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Almost More Disgusting

Army recruits get a signing bonus when they enlist. As it's been harder and harder to get recruits, the bonus has increased over the years. The reason it's been harder to recruit is that thousands of soldiers have been killed or severely wounded from their tours of duty. Which brings us around to this story.

Just in time for the holidays, there's a special place in Hell just waiting to be filled by some as-yet-unknown Pentagon bureaucrat. Apparently, thousands of wounded soldiers who served in Iraq are being asked to return part of their enlistment bonuses -- because their injuries prevented them from completing their tours.

It's bad enough that Bush is looking to hold 150,000 military base personnel hostage until he gets his golden war bucks. Now he's trying to take money from the disabled because of their disabilities - which seems to violate plenty of anti-discrimination laws.

One of them is Jordan Fox, a young soldier from the South Hills. He finds solace in the hundreds of boxes he loads onto a truck in Carnegie. In each box is a care package that will be sent to a man or woman serving in Iraq. It was in his name Operation Pittsburgh Pride was started.

Fox was seriously injured when a roadside bomb blew up his vehicle. He was knocked unconscious. His back was injured and lost all vision in his right eye.

A few months later Fox was sent home. His injuries prohibited him from fulfilling three months of his commitment. A few days ago, he received a letter from the military demanding nearly $3,000 of his signing bonus back.

"I tried to do my best and serve my country. I was unfortunately hurt in the process. Now they're telling me they want their money back," he explained.

Happy Thanksgiving! Labels: enlistment bonuses, George W. Bush, military, veterans, wounded soldiers

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Comments | Trackback A Turning Point For The Progressive Movement in California

Here we see California Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland acting like a four year-old because he feels the grip of power slipping away.

Julia Rosen has the full story on this at Crooks and Liars. Much ink has been spilled from the results of the executive board meeting and the squashing of the censure resolution of Dianne Feinstein, but the bottom line is this. That meeting will be remembered as the moment when the grassroots rose to prominence in California. It will be remembered as the moment that Courage Campaign became the MoveOn.org of California. And it will be remembered as a turning point, the moment when the establishment that has been running the Party their way for decades finally got nervous.

Art Torres' message to the party was cleverly edited to make it look like he just spent a few minutes on the Feinstein situation. Actually, he spent about a half-hour on it, extolling the virtues of the senior Senator and pleading with the members not to go forward with condemning her. The scene in the Resolutions Committee resulted in the chairman phsyically shoving an activist for putting up a sign. That's a defensive posture, and it springs from the mentality of a leadership which chooses not to work in concert with, or even listen to, its base.

Bob Mulholland is nothing but a firewall. He was sent in to hold back the rabble, and this past weekend he did his job. That he's paid by the rank and file of the party to ensure that their voices aren't heard is certainly perverse, but the bigger problem is who's paying him. Last weekend's events did change the conversation. The Party leadership has two options. They can listen to the concerns of the rank and file, and build lines of communication to facilitate that, or they can continue this practice of stonewalling and plowing forward with their own agenda. The former could succeed; the latter is destined to fail. Labels: activism, Art Torres, Bob Mulholland, California Democratic Party, Courage Campaign, progressive movement

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Comment (1) | Trackback Disgusting: Bush threatens to lay off 150,000 military base personnel if he doesn't get his war money

The Bush administration is threatening that it will issue furlough notices to up to 150,000 civilian workers at military bases in mid-December if Congress does not approve unrestricted Iraq funding immediately. As part of this campaign, the Pentagon is distributing a document warning that the Army may cease to function if it does not receive the funds now. (View the document here.)

This is just craven. The President signed a $471 funding bill for defense spending a WEEK ago. The bill even has a provision to shift money to the war in it "from other Pentagon accounts." You can argue about the relative wisdom of that. However, to tell 150,000 military families that they're going to be laid off DURING CHRISTMAS when there's ample money to keep all critical military operations afloat is maybe the most crass thing I've ever seen this Administration do.

Jack Murtha referred to this in a press conference today:

MURTHA: While Congress is working to improve the quality of life for our troops, this administration is reversing these efforts with this political document. You talk about morale, when they make statements like, “We’re going to lay-off people,” there’s thousand of people throughout the country that don’t need to be laid-off and shouldn’t be laid-off and they’re worrying them — those folks. This reduces the morale of the people throughout the country

I don’t like to think this, but it’s almost like a Rumsfeld-like prediction here — a Rumsfeld-like. I thought we’d gotten rid of Secretary Rumsfeld, but this really worries me that there would be such a political document

There’s seven months’ backlog at the depots — seven months’ backlog. In other words, there’s seven months’ work still in the depots, fully funded. They talked about IEDs the other day. We already funded over $3 billion for IEDs in a big unobligated (inaudible). This is a political document. They’re scaring people. They’re scaring the families of the troops with this document. That’s the thing that’s so despicable about what they’re doing.

The real truth is that if war funding was constrained and they had to cut nonessential programs to keep it going, their beloved defense contactors who are making useless systems would have to wait for their hundreds of millions of dollars. That is unacceptable. What is perfectly acceptable is playing a game of chicken with 150,000 men and women who've made the choice to serve their country. It's a contemptible little game being played with people's lives.

Amazingly enough, they're not even hiding this gambit. ThinkProgress notes today's White House press gaggle:

QUESTION: So this is a way to remind Congress that you want them to pass this bill?

PERINO: That’s exactly what that was.

QUESTION: So you’re making them suffer –

PERINO: I’m making the Democrats suffer?

QUESTION: No, you’re making the civilians who work for the Defense –

PERINO: Oh, no, it is not us who are making any civilians suffer.

QUESTION: There ought to be –

PERINO: We are calling on Congress to –

QUESTION: How many billions have we spent already for the Defense Department?

PERINO: The Defense Department says that they need this funding in order to keep the war running, as well as to keep these civilians…

QUESTION: Maybe they don’t want the war to keep running.

There it is, an admission that they are needlessly using 150,000 civilian Army personnel's livelihoods as a political football. This goes beyond 24% territory. I don't know how ANYONE could have the slightest respect for such ghouls. Labels: Dana Perino, defense contractors, Defense Department, George W. Bush, Iraq, Jack Murtha, military, war funding

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Comments | Trackback CA Lawsuit Watch

Let's turn D-Day into Court TV for a little while, shall we? There seems to be a spate of lawsuits going on in California. First, Debra Bowen has sued ES&S, a voting machine company, for selling systems that were not certified by the state to 5 counties. Bowen is simply fulfilling campaign promises here, though the company is screaming and crying about it.

Jerry Brown has made the strongest move to date against companies who profited from toxic toys made in China, suing Mattel, Toys "R" Us and about 20 other companies for "knowingly" selling the products with illegal amounts of lead.

The suit, filed in Alameda County Superior Court, alleges the companies knowingly exposed children to lead and failed to provide warning of the risk, which is required under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65.

If the suit is successful, the companies could pay a $2,500 fine for each violation, according to the complaint

The suit, which was joined by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, also named as defendants Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale and others.

That could add up in a hurry, when you consider the millions of lead-filled toys in California that have been sold.

Meanwhile, the state isn't the only with prosecuting attorneys, as the auto industry is challenging the state's global warming law in a Fresno District Court.

Lawyers for car manufacturers, dealers and trade associations said California's 2002 law, the model for statutes in 11 other states, amounted to a requirement for higher gas mileage, a subject that only the federal government can regulate.

Although federal law allows California to take a lead role in reducing air pollution, Congress never "intended a single state to have such sweeping authority to unilaterally set national fuel economy policy ... and profoundly affect a vital national industry," said Raymond Ludwiszewski, lawyer for a trade group of international automakers.

But U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii suggested that the industry's argument had been undercut by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April upholding the federal government's authority to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.

The district judge will follow precedent here; this lawsuit is frivolous. But the point is to buy time. Meanwhile, the EPA is still foot-dragging on granting a waiver that would put the 2002 tailpipe emissions law into effect, and the state has sued the federal government over that. Labels: auto industry, Debra Bowen, global warming, Jerry Brown, tailpipe emissions, toxic toys, voting machines

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Comments | Trackback Huckabee Winning The Washed-Up Celebrity Primary

9iu11iani was in the running with the Bo Derek endorsement, but Mike Huckabee just thundered past him.

Morgan Fliehr, aka "Nature Boy" Ric Flair of WWF/WWE pro wrestling fame, has endorsed the former Arkansas governor and minister. CNN reports that Flair will co-host a tailgate with Huckabee at this Saturday's South Carolina vs. Clemson college football game. Flair joins rocker Ted Nugent, he of the flaming arrows and lointcloths — not to mention stage routines calling for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to suck on his machine guns — plus the one and only Chuck Norris, in supporting Huckabee's candidacy. When I would go to my grandparents' house in rural Pennsylvania as a kid, I would notice that the "new" songs on the radio were about 2 years old. Does that get multiplied for the Republican Party? Ric Flair? Ted Nugent? Chuck Norris? Has anyone given a rat's ass about any of these people in the past 10 years?

Can't wait to see who Mr. Wonderful Paul Orndorff, Chief Wahoo McDaniel and Kamala the Ugandan Giant decide to endorse.

Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, professional wrestling, Ric Flair

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Comment (1) | Trackback The Slow March Out Of The Bush Administration

I thought that the reason given for the mass exodus this summer of all the White House officials was that the Chief of Staff told everybody that you either leave by Labor Day or stay on until the bitter end. Fran Townsend apparently didn't get the memo (neither did Karen Hughes, meaning that basically that whole line of argument was a crock).

Fran Townsend, the leading White House-based terrorism adviser who gave public updates on the extent of the threat to U.S. security, is stepping down after 4 1/2 years.

President Bush said in a statement Monday morning that Townsend, 45, has ably guided the Homeland Security Council. She has played an integral role in the formation of the key strategies and policies my administration has used to combat terror and protect Americans.

Townsend jumped, after seeing counter-terrorism efforts put in a precarious position by failed foreign policy initiatives like the occupation of Iraq. Rachel Paulose, however, one of the legacies of the US Attorney scandal, was pushed.

Rachel Paulose, the embattled U.S. attorney for Minnesota, will be leaving the post to take a position at the Justice Department in Washington, the department confirmed Monday.

We are pleased that Rachel Paulose has accepted the position of counselor to the assistant attorney general in the department's office of legal policy, Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said in an e-mail statement

Paulose was just 32 and working for the Justice Department in Washington when she was named interim U.S. attorney in February 2006 to succeed Tom Heffelfinger, who had resigned and returned to private practice

Paulose's troubles flared up again recently over allegations that she had made racially disparaging comments about one employee and mishandled classified documents that should have been kept locked up. The Justice Department began an internal investigation.

That prompted Coleman to urge Mukasey, then the attorney general nominee, that there should be a thorough review of the allegations, and that the Justice Department needed to provide better management support to U.S. attorney offices.

Paulose was the epitome of a Federalist Society-approved political hack, thrown into the US Attorney position without the relevant management skills, and thundering through the office like a house afire. Her return back to the rock she crawled out from under is encouraging, but of course there will be hundreds like her, little landmines all over the civil service just waiting for the next President. Labels: counter-terrorism, Frances Townsend, Rachel Paulose, US Attorneys, war on terror

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Comments | Trackback They'll Still Find A Way To Oppose It

With the news that researchers have figured out how to create stem cells without destroying embyros, the theocratic right will have to come up with a new rationale for stopping scientific breakthroughs. Maybe they'll decide that it's akin to cloning people.

The unencumbered ability to turn adult cells into embryonic ones capable of morphing into virtually every kind of cell or tissue, described in two scientific journal articles released today, has been the ultimate goal of researchers for years. In theory, it would allow people to grow personalized replacement parts for their bodies from a few of their own skin cells, while giving researchers a uniquely powerful means of understanding and treating diseases.

Until now, only human egg cells and embryos, both difficult to obtain and laden with legal and ethical issues, had the mysterious power to turn ordinary cells into stem cells. And until this summer, the challenge of mimicking that process in the lab seemed almost insurmountable, leading many to wonder if stem cell research would ever wrest free of its political baggage.

There weren't any mad scientists looking to build a race of über-humans. The goal was to create stem cells from adult skin cells all along, mainly because they are more efficient and more plentiful. The fundies were trying to hold back progress on technical grounds, and I have no doubt they'll continue to do so. Labels: science, stem cell research, theocracy

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Comments | Trackback Monday, November 19, 2007 The Design Failure Of Bush-Era Foreign Policy - Making The Military Option The Only Option

Over the weekend we sent John Negroponte over to Pakistan to do the old lean on Pervez Musharraf. This was the beginnings of the "surge of diplomacy" that people are calling for in Iraq. The problem, as it would be in Iraq, is that it's too late and the Bush Administration is too discredited for any of it to matter.

A special US mission to the embattled Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf ended in failure yesterday, and the Bush administration is inceasingly alarmed about the possible collapse of the government. There are also fears that its nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of Islamist extremists.

John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state, flew out of Islamabad after Musharraf, a close ally of the US, rejected his call to end emergency rule, to free political prisoners, resign from his post as army commander and hold free and fair elections in January.

Negroponte failed because he has almost nothing to offer. The Pakistani foreign minister said that he "had brought no new proposals and received no assurances in return." What could he possibly say? Could he denounce the destruction of democracy from a position of moral authority? Clearly not. Could he threaten to eliminate the $10 billion in military aid? No, the Cheneyite faction wouldn't let him. Could he forge a power-sharing agreement with some of the opposition parties? It's way too late for that.

There's a structural design flaw in Bush-style foreign policy, and indeed MOST foreign policy from the establishment perspective. This can be best summed up by this awful editorial by surge architect Fred Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, of all people, which boils down Pakistan, as they do every trouble spot globally, to a course of military action.

As the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.

First of all, we've already stood by as Pakistan descended into an abyss. They're under martial law, have turned the legal system into a kangaroo court, arrested all dissenters and indifferently watched as Islamists have taken more and more territory in the northwest region. Neoconservative loons like this aren't interested in seeing a problem until it lands on them with a thud. It's beyond the time in which America can bring forward a solution in Pakistan. Other than a military one. Which is the default position.

So then these two armchair Napoleons get our their little green Army men and spread them onto the Risk board and writhe around on the floor in ecstasy at their new glorious war plan.

The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies. Rule-of-thumb estimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size. Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.

One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.

For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico; but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. More likely, we would have to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up (and watched over) by crack international troops. It is realistic to think that such a mission might be undertaken within days of a decision to act. The price for rapid action and secrecy, however, would probably be a very small international coalition.

It goes on and on like this. Presumably these two think those little army men are actual soldiers.

The problem is that the military option is always foregrounded. Diplomatic solutions don't exist; diplomats are sent into countries years too late with empty briefcases.

Emptywheel had the same idea today.

I'm just a DFH and not a "serious person" or anything. But I am certain they have this wrong--dead wrong. It highlights the problem of neoconservatism--an acute myopia that therefore cannot see a problem until we're already in the thick of it and until they can make an argument--however specious--that the only solution is military.

Couple that with their ignorant assertion that, "There was a time when volatility in places like Pakistan was mostly a humanitarian worry," and you see the problem. They would not--and did not--consider action at a time when non-military solutions were the obvious solution to the problem, when AQ Khan and his nukes didn't have us by the nuts. As I said last year when I was earning Matt Bai's wrath, the time to address these problems is before they've exploded, while we're still nominally allies.

If I were of this default-to-militarism mindset, the best thing I could do would be to ignore global problems until I can claim that there's no choice but a military option. Pervez Musharraf was obviously a despot when he forced Nawaz Sharif out of the country at gunpoint in 1999. We could have conditioned aid to a return to democratic institutions, we could have finished the job at Tora Bora ourselves instead of putting Pakistan in the position to have to do our dirty work. Now we're faced with a nuclear-armed country in a fair amount of peril, and our image is worse than bin Laden's in that country. Any future interventions will be poison for whoever we intervene in favor of. A bottom up strategy in Pakistan is absolutely insane and will be sure to make things far worse. But the way these neocons get to that is by sabotaging any other reasonable effort to resolve global difficulties. Labels: foreign policy, Fred Kagan, George W. Bush, John Negroponte, Michael O'Hanlon, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

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Comments | Trackback Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs

The nation actually had a good employment month in October. The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.

On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work). That's also a full point over the national average. The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.

October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.

But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.)

Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.

"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.

The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."

Really? You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown? And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?

Ever hear of trash-outs?

“An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure.”

“On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator.”

“Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls ‘trash-outs’ - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants.”

“The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said.”

“‘These typically look like they’re occupied, but they’re not trashed,’ she said about these homes. ‘(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.’”

Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week. And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.

This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve. The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week. Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation. Labels: economy, housing, jobs, recession, subprime mortgages

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Comments | Trackback Write A New Story

I'm not always comfortable with publishing polls because they're a snapshot. But we're only a month-plus out of New Hampshire, and the trends of this CNN poll show that the media simply needs to start running a new story about the Republican race. Because Mitt Romney is solidly in the lead right now.

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.

Thompson ... has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.

By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.

Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State

Among other contenders, Huckabee — seen gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses — claimed 5 percent support in the new poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.

Romney is now well beyond the margin of error in New Hampshire, and 9iu11iani, who's trying to make a strong showing UP TO THIRD in Iowa, is looking at the same placement in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is surging and will probably spend as much money in that state as anyone else. And Fred Thompson no longer exists.

All I'm saying is that it might be time to rewrite those stories (And do it yourself, because the CBS newswriters are going on strike). If all you're going to do is focus on the horse race, the least you can do is get it right. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, poll, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, traditional media, Writer's Guild

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Comments | Trackback Triangle of Corruption Update: They're Still Under Investigation

The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena. Now we've learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis' personal financial records - and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert's, too.

The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery's lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis' wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.

As for Calvert, it's unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his "honest graft" schemes?) or even if he's the focus of a full-blown investigation.

His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.

About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel....

Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away. Labels: culture of corruption, FBI, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert

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Comments | Trackback More Iowa Stories

It looks like the Right's Field is trying to manage expectations in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. Mike Huckabee could end Mitt Romney's Presidential ambitions right there if he should manage a victory. He's now on the radar screen and his opponents are hitting him over the familiar issue of immigration.

On Fox News on Wednesday, he was asked about a bill he supported as governor that would have granted tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. He suggested that he had only wanted to give such children access to scholarships. In fact, the initial bill he supported did have a scholarship provision. But that provision was later stripped out and was not included in the legislation that Huckabee continued to push.

Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, still leading in Iowa, has decided that it's time to take the gloves off with regard to Huckabee. Campaigning in Iowa this week, the Associated Press reported, Romney told reporters: "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right."

On Fox News, Huckabee responded with a dig at prior reports that Romney had employed groundskeepers who were illegal: "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there."

Not a bad comeback. I thought Huckabee's Chuck Norris facts ad was funny but it's going to confuse the hell out of 70 year-olds in Iowa who aren't familiar with hipster jokes on the Internet. His problem is that, if the immigration issue is as strong in the Republican Party as polls suggest, he's going to have trouble with this stand.

Meanwhile, Rudy donned his farm clothes and visited Iowa once again, and apparently he's blanketing the state with mailers and phone calls and radio ads, trying to maybe move up to third and declare victory. Of course, when one of the most powerful GOP electeds in the state says that your nomination would undermine the Party... that's not a good sign.

Rep. Steve King of Iowa warned today that the conservative underpinnings of the Republican party platform would be "sacrificed" if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee.

King, a leading conservative from western Iowa's heavily Republican 5th District, said that in addition he fears the nomination of Giuliani would spur a third-party candidate on the right who would "sink" GOP chances of winning the White House.

"I don't know anybody else who has spoken publicly about that concern," King said in an interview in his office at the U.S. Capitol. "What's it take to be a spoiler? Not much."

As for Grandpa Freddie, he's attacked Huckabee by calling him "John Edwards in a Republican suit" (what's the cut of a Republican suit? Is it made out of poor people?), but privately, his Congressional supporters are trying to find a way to sneak out the side door.

Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.

“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”

The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.

“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”

Now that's a proud group of endorsers right there. Labels: 2008, Fred Thompson, immigration, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback Like Scheduling Bowling On Prom Night After Nobody Asks You To Go

John McCain is trying to pull a "Well I didn't want to be in your stupid caucus anyway" maneuver by dropping out of Iowa to avoid an embarrassing defeat.

Sen. John McCain soon will consider opting out of the Jan. 3 Iowa presidential caucuses to take the sting out of a probable fifth-place finish there.

McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 while nearly seizing the presidential nomination from heavily favored George W. Bush. But when McCain was the early front-runner for 2008, it was decided he would contest the state this time.

The rationale for leaving Iowa now would be total concentration on the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Although McCain defeated Bush by landslide proportions in New Hampshire eight years ago, he did so with overwhelming support from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary this time.

And if they don't vote in the Democratic primary, they have other options on the Republican side, like Ron Paul. The dynamics are completely different from 2000, but for McCain, the result is likely to be the same, despite the media's best efforts.

No word on whether McCain will drop out of the Arizona primary, where he's trailing Rudy Giuliani even though it's his home state. Because that would be even more embarrassing. Labels: 2008, Iowa, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani

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Comments | Trackback They Must Be Doing Worse Than We Thought

Most of the Republican retirements in the House were more understandable because the guys were old and they didn't expect being back in the majority anytime soon. But Mike Ferguson is 37.

After barely defeating Linda Stender last year, Congressman Ferguson says he won't seek reelection in 2008. His announcement is surprising considering he's only 37.

Linda Stender is running again, and the only explanation I have for this is that internal polling showed Ferguson that he'd be blown out next year. Better to run away and come back another day when the national mood is favorable.

We're at around 20 GOP retirements in the House of Representatives, many of them in swing districts like this one. That's not happening in a vacuum. The Republican insiders in Washington are figuring out that Americans generally hate what they've done to the country.

Labels: 2008, House of Representatives, Linda Stender, Mike Ferguson, Republicans

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Comments | Trackback Monday Random Flickr Blogging

Courtesy of our random Flickr blogfather.

"Son, I don't want to say nothing, but that may be the worst football uniform I've ever seen."

"But this is what Coach Carr told me to wear!"

"Maybe that's why he's not around here no more. Now go get some shoulder pads."

"Run for your lives, it's the Attack of the 70s-Era Volkswagen Beetle!" Labels: Lloyd Carr, monday random flickr blogging, University of Michigan

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Comments | Trackback CA-12: Speier To Challenge Lantos?

This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.

"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.

Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.

Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.

This is the first interesting primary fight in California on the Democratic side that we've seen in the US Congress this cycle. Speier would likely be seen as an upgrade to Lantos for progressives. So far this year Lantos has condemned MoveOn and intimated that "Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay." Labels: CA-12, California, Jackie Speier, Tom Lantos

dashed off by dday at 10:10 AM View blog reactions

Comments | Trackback Most Predictable Court Case Ever

In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.

The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.

This dictatorin' is easy! Labels: martial law, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf

dashed off by dday at 9:28 AM View blog reactions

Comments | Trackback Iraq 4-Evah

So the latest news out of Iraq is that, if you believe military statistics, attacks have fallen to a February 2006 level. This is down-the-memory-hole-ism at its finest. February 2006 was NOT a good time for Iraq. The country was a mess well before the Samarra Golden Dome bombing late in that month. The sectarian attacks were robust at that time. And the fact that this announcement came on the same day that bombs across Iraq killed 20 people shows you that peace, such as it is in Iraq, is ephemeral.

The real story about Iraq that should let everyone know where a Bush strategy has gotten us is in this prediction from expert Stephen Biddle.

Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters. Man.

So I wouldn't be getting all crazy about a couple months worth of numbers, when they haven't meant squat for a political solution and have just put the country completely in the hands of the US military for the next 30 years, which is a completely unsustainable scenario. Labels: civilian casualties, George W. Bush, Iraq, Stephen Biddle

dashed off by dday at 9:10 AM View blog reactions

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