Misplaced Pages

Revision as of 17:13, 22 February 2009

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009

Acronyms (colloquial)	ARRA
Effective	February 17, 2009
Legislative history
Passed the House of Representatives on January 28, 2009 (244-188) Passed the Senate on February 10, 2009 (60-38) Signed into law by President Barack Obama on February 17, 2009

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (H.R. 1, S. 1) is a federal public law passed by the 111th United States Congress and signed into law by President Barack Obama. Its legislative history had three versions, the first approved by the House of Representatives, a second version approved by the Senate. The final version, a conference version resulting from negotiations of House and Senate leadership was approved by both houses of Congress on February 13, 2009, and signed on February 17 by the President. The lesiglation was written by a chimpanzee named Wilmer, who typed keys at random on a Remington typewriter.

Congressional negotiators announced on February 11, 2009, that they had completed the conference report of the bill. The 1,071 page Conference Report with final handwritten provisions was made available to the public late on February 13. On February 13, 2009, at 2:24 p.m., the Conference Report was voted on and passed as Roll Call Vote 70 by the House with 246 Yeas and 183 Nays. The vote was largely along party lines with all 246 Yea votes given by Democrats and the Nay vote consisting of 176 Republicans and seven Democrats. No Republicans in the House voted for the bill. At 10:48 p.m., the Senate passed the bill by a vote of 60-38, with all Democrats and Independents voting for the bill along with three Republicans. The remaining thirty-eight Republican senators voted against the bill. (Due to his illness, Senator Edward M. Kennedy-D Massachusetts was unable to vote; there is one Senate vacancy, for Minnesota.)

Based largely on broad proposals made by President Barack Obama, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act is intended to provide a stimulus to the U.S. economy in the wake of the economic downturn brought about by the subprime mortgage crisis and the resulting credit crunch. The bill includes federal tax cuts, expansion of unemployment benefits and other social welfare provisions, and domestic spending in education, health care, and infrastructure, including the energy sector. The 1,071 page new law also includes numerous non-economic recovery related items that were either part of longer-term plans (e.g. a study of the effectiveness of medical treatments) or desired by Congress (e.g. a limitation on executive compensation in federally aided banks added by Senator Dodd and Rep. Frank). The proposed government action is much larger than the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, which consisted primarily of tax rebate checks. President Obama signed the bill into law at an economic forum he was hosting in Denver, Colorado, on Tuesday, February 17, 2009.

Legislative history

House of Representatives

The House version of the bill, H.R. 1, was introduced on January 25, 2009. It was sponsored by Representative David Obey of Wisconsin, the House Appropriations Committee chairman, and was co-sponsored by nine other Democratic representatives. On January 23, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi said that the bill was on track to be presented to President Obama for him to sign into law before February 16, 2009. Although 206 amendments were scheduled for floor votes, they were combined into only 11, which enabled quicker passage of the bill.

On January 28, 2009, the House passed the bill by a 244-188 vote. All but 11 Democrats voted for the bill, and 177 Republicans voted against it (one Republican, Ginny Brown-Waite (FL), did not vote).

On February 12, 2009, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer scheduled the vote on the bill for the next day, before wording on the bill's content had been completed and despite House Democrats having previously promised to allow a 48-hour public review period before any vote. The bill was not completed and posted on a House website until 10:45 PM on February 12. The next day, the House passed a revised version of the bill by a vote of 246-183, with no Republicans voting in favor and 7 Democrats voting against.

Senate

The Senate version of the bill, S. 1, was introduced on January 6, 2009, and later substituted as an amendment to the House bill, S.Amdt. 570. It was sponsored by Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the Senate Majority Leader, co-sponsored by 16 other Democratic senators and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats.

The Senate then began consideration of the bill starting with the $275 billion tax provisions in the week of February 2, 2009. A significant difference between the House version and the Senate version is the inclusion of a one-year extension of revisions to the alternative minimum tax which added $70 billion to the bill's total.

Republicans proposed several amendments to the plan directed at increasing the share of tax cuts in the plan and downsizing the spending portion as well as decreasing the overall price tag of the plan. President Obama and Senate Democrats hinted that they would be willing to compromise on Republican suggestions to increase infrastructure spending and to double the housing tax credit proposed from $7,500 to $15,000 and expand its application to all home buyers, not just first-time buyers. Other considered amendments included the Freedom Act of 2009, an amendment proposed by Senate Finance Committee members Maria Cantwell (D-WA) and Orrin Hatch (R-UT) to include tax incentives for plug-in electric vehicles and an amendment proposed by Jim DeMint (R-SC) to remove language from the bill that would prohibit funds which would be "used for sectarian instruction, religious worship, or a school or department of divinity; or in which a substantial portion of the functions of the facilities are subsumed in a religious mission".

The Senate called a special Saturday debate session for February 7 at the urging of President Obama. With a vote of 61-36 (with 2 not voting) the Senate voted on February 9 to end debate on the bill and advance it to the Senate floor to vote on the bill itself. On February 10, the Senate voted 61-37 (with one 1 not voting) All the Democrats voted in favor, but only three Republicans voted in favor (Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, and Arlen Specter). At one point, the Senate bill stood at $838 billion.

Comparison of the House, Senate and Conference versions

Senate Republicans forced a near unprecedented level of changes (near $150 billion) in the House Bill which had more closely followed the original Obama plan. The biggest losers were States (severely restricted Stabilization Fund)and the poor (reduced tax credit) with major gains for the elderly (largely forgotten in the original Obama & House plans) and high income tax-payers. A comparison of the $827 billion economic recovery plan drafted by Senate Democrats with a $820 billion version passed by the House and the final $787 billion Conference version shows huge shifts within these similar totals. Additional debt costs would add about $350 billion or more over 10 years. Many provisions expire in two years.

The main funding differences between the Senate bill and the House bill are: More funds for health care in the Senate ( $153.3 vs $140 billion), for green energy programs ($74 vs. $39.4 billion), for home buyers tax credit ($35.5 vs. $2.6 billion), new payments to the elderly and a one year increae in AMT limits. The House has more funds appropriated for education ($143 vs. $119.1 billion), infrastructure ($90.4 vs. $62 billion) and for aid to low income workers and the unemployed ($71.5 vs. $66.5 billion).

This part of the article comparing versions of the legislation and detailing allocated expenditures does not cite any sources. Please help improve this part of the article comparing versions of the legislation and detailing allocated expenditures by adding citations to reliable sources. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed. Find sources: "American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009" – news · newspapers · books · scholar · JSTOR (February 2009) (Learn how and when to remove this message)

Spending (Senate-$552 billion, House-$545 billion)

• Aid to low income workers and the unemployed
  • Senate — $47 billion to provide extended unemployment benefits through Dec. 31, increased by $25 a week, and provide job training; $16.5 billion to increase food stamp benefits by 12 percent through fiscal 2011 and issue a one-time bonus payment; $3 billion in temporary welfare payments.
  • House — Comparable extension of unemployment insurance; $20 billion to increase food stamp benefits by 14 percent; $2.5 billion in temporary welfare payments; $1 billion for home heating subsidies and $1 billion for community action agencies.

• Direct cash payments
  • Senate — $17 billion to give one-time $300 payments to recipients of Supplemental Security Income and Social Security, and veterans receiving disability and pensions.
  • House — $4 billion to provide a one-time additional Supplemental Security Income and Social Security Disability Insurance payment to the elderly, of $450 for individuals and $630 for married couples.
  • Conference - $250 one-time payment to each recipient of Supplemental Security Income, Social Security (Regular & Disability) Insurance, Veterans pension, Railroad Retirement, or State retirement system.

• Infrastructure
  • Senate — $46 billion for transportation projects, including $27 billion for highway and bridge construction and repair and $11.5 billion for mass transit and rail projects; $4.6 billion for the Army Corps of Engineers; $5 billion for public housing improvements; $6.4 billion for clean and drinking water projects.
  • House — $47 billion for transportation projects, including $27 billion for highway and bridge construction and repair and $12 billion for mass transit, including $7.5 billion to buy transit equipment such as buses; and $31 billion to build and repair federal buildings and other public infrastructures.

• Health care
  • Senate — $21 billion to subsidize the cost of continuing health care insurance for the involuntarily unemployed under the COBRA program; $87 billion to help states with Medicaid; $22 billion to modernize health information technology systems; and $10 billion for health research and construction of National Institutes of Health facilities.
  • House — $40 billion to subsidize the cost of continuing health care insurance for the involuntarily unemployed under the COBRA program or provide health care through Medicaid; $87 billion to help states with Medicaid; $20 billion to modernize health information technology systems; $4 billion for preventative care; $1.5 billion for community health centers; $420 million to combat avian flu; $335 million for programs that combat AIDS, sexually transmitted diseases and tuberculosis.
  • Conference - A 65% COBRA subsidy for 9 months will apply to workers laid off between Sept. 1, 2008 and Dec. 31, 2009. Those already laid off have 60 days to apply for COBRA.

• Education
  • Senate — $55 billion in state fiscal relief to prevent cuts in education aid and provide block grants; $25 billion to school districts to fund special education and the No Child Left Behind K-12 law; $14 billion to boost the maximum Pell Grant by $400 to $5,250; $2 billion for Head Start.
  • House — Similar aid to states and school districts; $21 billion for school modernization; $16 billion to boost the maximum Pell Grant by $500 to $5,350; $2 billion for Head Start.
  • Conference - The Conference Report merged most education aid with the State Fiscal Stabilization fund (administered by the Department of Education)and gave power over the funds to each governor under voluminous restrictions. The Governor is "Required" to spend $45 billion of the money on education to restore funding to 2008 levels but the mechanisms to enforce state maintenance of effort at 2005-06 levels are complex and potentially impossible to implement. Hard hit states such as Nevada cannot possibly find enough funds to get to the 2005-06 state funding levels for education. Some states with no current budget cuts for education, such as Arkansas and North Carolina, may get nothing. This will result in a monumental 50 state legal and political fight over how to re-budget to best take advantage of the Federal legislation. Many states will further reduce state funds for education to the 2005-06 minimum so these state resources can be used for other state priorities and the net gain for education will be far less then the total Federal appropriation.

• Energy
  • Senate — $40 billion for energy efficiency and renewable energy programs, including $2.9 billion to weatherize modest-income homes; $4.6 billion for fossil fuel research and development; $6.4 billion to clean up nuclear weapons production sites; $11 billion toward a so-called smart electricity grid to reduce waste; $8.5 billion to subsidize loans for renewable energy projects; and $2 billion for advanced battery systems.
  • House — $28.4 billion for energy efficiency and renewable energy programs, including $6.2 billion to weatherize homes; $11 billion to fund a smart electricity grid.

• Homeland security
  • Senate — $4.7 billion for homeland security programs, including $1 billion for airport screening equipment and $800 million for port security.
  • House — $1.1 billion, including $500 million for airport screening equipment.

• Law enforcement
  • Senate — $3.5 billion in grants to state and local law enforcement to hire officers and purchase equipment.
  • House — Comparable provision.

Taxes ($275 billion)

• New tax credit
  • House— About $145 billion for $500 per-worker, $1,000 per-couple tax credits in 2009 and 2010. For the last half of 2009, workers could expect to see about $20 a week less withheld from their paychecks starting around June. Millions of Americans who don’t make enough money to pay federal income taxes could file returns next year and receive checks. Individuals making more than $75,000 and couples making more than $150,000 would receive reduced amounts.
  • Senate — The credit would phase out at incomes of $70,000 for individuals and couples making more than $140,000 and phase out more quickly, reducing the cost to $140 billion.
  • Conference- Tax Credit reduced to $400 per worker and $800 per couple in 2009 and 2010 and phaseout begins at $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for joint filers. Note retirees with no wages get nothing.

• Alternative minimum tax
  • House — No provision.
  • Senate — About $70 billion to prevent 24 million taxpayers from paying the alternative minimum tax in 2009. The tax was designed to make sure wealthy taxpayers can’t use credits and deductions to avoid paying any taxes or paying at a far lower rate than would otherwise be possible. But it was never indexed to inflation, so critics now contend it taxes people it was not intended to. Congress addresses it each year, usually in the fall.
  • Conference - Includes a one year increase in AMT floor to $70,950 for joint filers for 2009.

• Expanded child credit
  • House — $18.3 billion to give greater access to the $1,000 per-child tax credit for low income workers in 2009 and 2010. Under current law, workers must make at least $12,550 to receive any portion of the credit. The change eliminates the floor, meaning more workers who pay no federal income taxes could receive checks.
  • Senate — Sets a new income threshold of $8,100 to receive any portion of the credit, reducing the cost to $7.5 billion.
  • Conference - The income floor for refunds was set at $3,000 for 2009 & 2010.

• Expanded earned income tax credit
  • House — $4.7 billion to increase the earned income tax credit — which provides money to low income workers — for families with at least three children.
  • Senate — Same.

• Expanded college credit
  • House — $13.7 billion to provide a $2,500 expanded tax credit for college tuition and related expenses for 2009 and 2010. The credit is phased out for couples making more than $160,000.
  • Senate — Reduces the amount that can be refunded to low-income families that pay no income taxes, lowering the cost to $13 billion.

• Homebuyer credit
  • House — $2.6 billion to repeal a requirement that a $7,500 first-time homebuyer tax credit be paid back over time for homes purchased from Jan. 1 to July 1, unless the home is sold within three years. The credit is phased out for couples making more than $150,000.
  • Senate — Doubles the credit to $15,000 for homes purchased for a year after the bill takes effect, increasing the cost to $35.5 billion.
  • Conference - $8,000 credit for all homes bought between 1/1/2009 and 12/1/2009 and repayment provision repealed for homes purchased in 2009 and held more than three years.

• Home energy credit
  • House — $4.3 billion to provide an expanded credit to homeowners who make their homes more energy-efficient in 2009 and 2010. Homeowners could recoup 30 percent of the cost up to $1,500 of numerous projects, such as installing energy-efficient windows, doors, furnaces and air conditioners.
  • Senate — Same.
  • Conference - Same;

• Unemployment
  • House — No similar provision.
  • Senate — $4.7 billion to exclude from taxation the first $2,400 a person receives in unemployment compensation benefits in 2009.
  • Conference -- Same as Senate

• Bonus depreciation
  • House — $5 billion to extend a provision allowing businesses buying equipment such as computers to speed up its depreciation through 2009.
  • Senate — Similar.

• Money losing companies
  • House — $15 billion to allow companies to use current losses to offset profits made in the previous five years, instead of two, making them eligible for tax refunds.
  • Senate — Allows companies to use more of their losses to offset previous profits, increasing the cost to $19.5 billion.
  • Conference - Limits the carry-back to small companies, revenue under $5 million

• Government contractors
  • House — Repeal a law that takes effect in 2011, requiring government agencies to withhold three percent of payments to contractors to help ensure they pay their tax bills. Repealing the law would cost $11 billion over 10 years, in part because the government could not earn interest by holding the money throughout the year.
  • Senate — Delays the law from taking effect until 2012, reducing the cost to $291 million.

• Energy production
  • House — $13 billion to extend tax credits for renewable energy production.
  • Senate — Same.
  • Conference - Extension is to 2014.

• Repeal bank credit
  • House — Repeal a Treasury provision that allowed firms that buy money-losing banks to use more of the losses as tax credits to offset the profits of the merged banks for tax purposes. The change would increase taxes on the merged banks by $7 billion over 10 years.
  • Senate — Same.

• Bonds
  • House — $36 billion to subsidize locally issued bonds for school construction, teacher training, economic development and infrastructure improvements.
  • Senate — $22.8 billion to subsidize locally issued bonds for school construction, industrial development and infrastructure improvements.

• Auto sales
  • House — No similar provision.
  • Senate — $11 billion to make interest payments on most auto loans and sales tax on cars deductible.
  • Conference - $2 billion for deduction of sales tax, not interest payments phased out for incomes above $250,000.

Provisions of the final bill

The final $787 billion version signed by President Obama on February 17, 2009 specifies that 34% of the package is to be devoted to tax cuts equaling $286 billion, and a further $120 billion will be used to fund infrastructure projects. 64% of the package will be allocated for money for social programs and spending. The following details some of the spending:

Department of Defense facilities

Total: $7.03 billion

• $4.2 billion to repair and modernize Department of Defense facilities
• $1.3 billion for medical care for service members and their families
• $890 million to improve housing for service members
• $240 million for new child development centers
• $150 million for the construction of state extended-care facilities
• $150 million for an increase of claims processing staff
• $100 million to improve facilities of the National Guard

Education

Total: $92 billion

• $45 billion minimum for education under the State Equalization Fund
• $15.6 billion to increase Pell Grants from $4,731 to $5,350
• $13 billion for low-income public schoolchildren
• $12.2 billion for IDEA special education
• $2.1 billion for Head Start
• $2 billion for childcare services
• $650 million for educational technology
• $300 million for increased teacher salaries
• $250 million for states to analyze student performance
• $200 million to support working college students
• $70 million for the education of homeless children

Energy

Total: $40.75 billion

• $11 billion funding for an electric smart grid
• $6.3 billion for state and local governments to make investments in energy efficiency
• $6 billion for renewable energy power generation loans
• $5 billion for weatherizing modest-income homes
• $4.5 billion for state and local governments to increase energy efficiency in federal buildings
• $3.4 billion for carbon capture experiments
• $2.5 billion for energy efficiency research
• $2 billion for car battery (traction) research
• $500 million for training of green-collar workers
• $400 million for electric vehicle technologies
• $300 million to buy energy efficient appliances
• $300 million for reducing diesel fuel emissions
• $300 million for state and local governments to purchase energy efficient vehicles
• $250 million to increase energy efficiency in low-income housing

Environmental cleanup

Total: $6.9 billion

• $6 billion for the cleanup of radioactive waste
• $600 million to cleanup hazardous waste that threaten health and the environment
• $200 million to cleanup petroleum leaks from underground storage tanks
• $100 million to evaluate and cleanup brownfield land

Government technology improvements

Total: $864 million

• $500 million to update the computer center at the Social Security Administration
• $290 million to upgrade IT platforms at the State Department
• $50 million for IT improvements at the Farm Service Agency
• $24 million to improve security systems at the Department of Agriculture headquarters

Healthcare

Total: $24.1 billion

• $19 billion for health information technology
• $2 billion for Community Health Centers
• $1.1 billion to research the effectiveness of certain healthcare treatments
• $1 billion to fight preventable chronic diseases
• $500 million to train healthcare personnel
• $500 million for healthcare services on Indian reservations

Housing

Total: $12.69 billion

• $4 billion for repairing and modernizing public housing
• $2.25 billion in tax credits for financing low-income housing construction
• $2 billion for Section 8 housing rental assistance
• $2 billion to help communities purchase and repair foreclosed housing
• $1.5 billion for rental assistance and housing relocation
• $510 million for the rehabilitation of Native American housing
• $200 million for helping rural Americans buy homes
• $130 million for rural community facilities
• $100 million to help remove lead paint from public housing

Hunger assistance

Total: $20.25 billion

• $19.9 billion for the Food Stamp Program
• $150 million to help refill food banks
• $100 million for meals programs for seniors, such as Meals on Wheels
• $100 million for free school lunch programs

Job assistance

Total: $4.97 billion

• $3.95 billion for job training
• $500 million for vocational training for the disabled
• $400 million for employment services
• $120 million for subsidized community service jobs for older Americans

Other infrastructure projects

Total: $17.355 billion

• $4.6 billion for the Army Corps of Engineers for environmental restoration, flood protection, hydropower, and navigation infrastructure projects
• $4 billion for the Clean Water State Revolving Fund (wastewater treatment infrastructure improvements)
• $2 billion for the Drinking Water State Revolving Fund (drinking water infrastructure improvements)
• $1.38 billion for rural drinking water and waste disposal projects
• $1 billion to the Bureau of Reclamation for drinking water projects for rural or drought-likely areas
• $750 million to the National Park Service
• $650 million to the Forest Service
• $515 million for wildfire prevention projects
• $500 million for Bureau of Indian Affairs infrastructure projects
• $340 million to the Natural Resources Conservation Service for watershed infrastructure projects
• $320 million to the Bureau of Land Management
• $280 million for National Wildlife Refuges
• $280 million for the National Fish Hatchery System
• $250 million to improve Job Corps training facilities
• $220 million to the International Boundary and Water Commission to repair flood control systems along the Rio Grande
• $220 million for other public lands management agencies
• $50 million for the National Endowment for the Arts to support artists

Other job programs

Total: $5.51 billion

• $4 billion for state and local law enforcement agencies
• $1 billion in preparation for the 2010 census
• $210 million to build and upgrade fire stations
• $150 million for the security of transit systems
• $150 million for the security of ports

Other worker assistance programs

Total: $7.27 billion

• $4.2 billion to provide an additional Supplemental Security Income and Social Security Disability Insurance payment in 2009
• $1 billion to community action agencies
• $1 billion for community and economic development projects
• $500 million to help the Social Security Administration process disability and retirement claims
• $200 million for AmeriCorps programs
• $140 million for independent living communities
• $100 million for food, shelter and support services
• $80 million to the Department of Labor Worker Protection and Oversight agency to enforce worker protection laws
• $50 million in grants for community "safety net" organizations

Scientific research

Total: $17.55 billion

• $8.7 billion to the National Institutes of Health
• $3 billion to the National Science Foundation
• $2 billion to the United States Department of Energy
• $1.3 billion for university research facilities
• $1 billion to NASA
• $600 million to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
• $580 million to the National Institute of Standards and Technology
• $230 million for NOAA operations, research and facilities
• $140 million to the United States Geological Survey

Telecommunications and Digital TV

Total: $7.85 billion

• $7.2 billion for complete broadband and wireless Internet access
• $650 million for DTV conversion coupons and DTV education

Transportation projects

Total: $48.76 billion

• $27.5 billion for highway and bridge construction projects
• $8 billion for high-speed rail projects
• $6.9 billion for new equipment for public transportation projects
• $1.5 billion for competitive grants to state and local governments for transportation investments
• $1.3 billion for Amtrak
• $1.1 billion for improving airport security
• $750 million for the construction of new public rail transportation systems
• $750 million for the maintenance of existing public transportation systems
• $720 million for improving security at the border and ports of entry
• $240 million for the maintenance of United States Coast Guard facilities

Veterans Affairs facilities

Total: $1.2 billion

• $1 billion for the Veterans Health Administration
• $150 million for VA general operating expenses
• $50 million for the National Cemetery Administration

Assessments by economists

Economists such as Martin Feldstein, Daron Acemoglu, National Economic Council director Larry Summers, and Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences winners Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman favor large economic stimulus to counter the economic downturn. Some economists, such as Stiglitz and Krugman, favor a much larger measure. While in favor of a stimulus package, Feldstein expressed concern over the act as written, saying it needs revision to address consumer spending and unemployment more directly. Other economists, including John Lott, Robert Barro and Nobel Prize-winners Robert Lucas, Jr., Vernon L. Smith, Edward C. Prescott and James M. Buchanan have been more critical of the government spending, saying that the package will increase unemployment and place more debt on future generations.

On January 28, 2009, a full page advertisement with the names of approximately 200 economists who are against President Obama's plan appeared in The New York Times and The Wall St. Journal. The funding for this advertisement came from the Cato Institute. The ad stated, "... we the undersigned do not believe that more government spending is a way to improve economic performance. More government spending by Hoover and Roosevelt did not pull the United States economy out of the Great Depression in the 1930s... To improve the economy, policymakers should focus on reforms that remove impediments to work, savings, investment, and production. Lower tax rates and a reduction in the burden of government are the best ways of using fiscal policy to boost growth."

On February 8, 2009, it was reported that a different petition, also signed by approximately 200 economists, but this one being in favor of President Obama's plan, had been created. This petition was written by the Center for American Progress Action Fund. The petition said that President Obama's plan "proposes important investments that can start to overcome the nation's damaging loss of jobs," and that it would "put the United States back onto a sustainable long-term-growth path."

Congressional Budget Office report

A February 4, 2009, report by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said that while the stimulus would increase economic output and employment in the short run, the GDP would, by 2019, have an estimated net decrease between 0.1% and 0.3% (as compared to the CBO estimated baseline).

The CBO estimates that enacting the bill would increase federal budget deficits by $185 billion over the remaining months of fiscal year 2009, by $399 billion in 2010, by $134 billion in 2011, and by $787 billion over the 2009-2019 period.

In a February 11 letter, CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf noted that there was disagreement among economists about the effectiveness of the stimulus, with some skeptical of any significant effects while others expecting very large effects. Elmendor said the CBO expected short term increases in GDP and employment. In the long term, the CBO expects the legislation to reduce output slightly by increasing the nation's debt and crowding out private investment, but noted that other factors, such as improvements to roads and highways and increased spending for basic research and education may offset the decrease in output and that crowding out was a not an issue in the short term because private investment was already decreasing in response to decreased demand.

The CBO estimated that an increase in the GDP of between 1.4&bsp;percent and 3.8 percent by the end of 2009, between 1.1 percent and 3.3 percent by the end of 2010, between 0.4 percent and 1.3 percent by the end of 2011, and a decrease of between zero and 0.2 percent beyond 2014. The impact to employment would be an increase of 0.8 million to 2.3 million by the end of 2009, an increase of 1.2 million to 3.6 million by the end of 2010, an increase of 0.6 million to 1.9 million by the end of 2011, and declining increases in subsequent years as the U.S. labor market reaches nearly full employment, but never negative. Decreases in GDP in 2014 and beyond is accounted for by a decrease in worker productivity caused by lower wages rather than lower employment.

See also

• Alternative Minimum Tax
• Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007
• Green job
• Green New Deal
• New Deal
• Presidency of Barack Obama
• Presidential transition of Barack Obama

References

1. ^ CNN.com February 17, 2009 Stimulus: Now for the hard part
2. Stimulus Author Alive and Well, The American Sentinel, February 21, 2009
3. New York Times Deal Struck on $789 Billion Stimulus. New York Times. February 11, 2009.
4. "COMMITTEE ON RULES - Conference Report to Accompany H.R. 1 - The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009". Rules.house.gov. Retrieved 2009-02-18.
5. ^ "US Congress passes stimulus plan". BBC. 2009-02-14. Retrieved 2009-02-17.
6. "Dems power stimulus bill through Congress". Associated Press. February 14, 2009.
7. "U.S. Senate: Legislation & Records Home > Votes > Roll Call Vote". Senate.gov. Retrieved 2009-02-18.
8. "Obama seeks congressional consensus on stimulus plan". Newsday. January 24, 2009.
9. cqpolitics.com
10. "House Passes Stimulus Plan Despite G.O.P. Opposition". New York Times. January 29, 2009.
11. House Vote On Passage: H.R. 1: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
12. Even After the Deal, Tinkering Goes On, The New York Times, February 12, 2009
13. The Senate passed the bill with 60 votes later that night.FINAL VOTE RESULTS FOR ROLL CALL 70
14. House passes Obama's economic stimulus bill
15. NewsDay.com
16. For example: S.Amdt. 106, S.Amdt. 107, S.Amdt. 108, and S.Amdt. 109s
17. Sheryl Gay Stolberg (February 2, 2009). "Obama Predicts Support From G.O.P. for Stimulus Proposal". New York Times.
18. cantwell.senate.gov
19. HR1. SEC. 9302. HIGHER EDUCATION MODERNIZATION, RENOVATION, AND REPAIR. The amendment was ultimately rejected by a vote of 54-43: S.Amdt. 189. Vote on Amendment
20. Roll call vote 59
21. Senator Judd Gregg (R-NH) did not vote because, at the time, he was a nominee of the Democratic president to become Secretary of Commerce. Gregg also did not participate in the cloture vote.
22. Roll call vote 60
23. David Espo. "Stimulus bill survives Senate test". Associated Press via Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
24. http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/39369767.html
25. "Stimulus bill far from perfect, Obama says" MSNBC
26. Stimulus bill survives Senate test http://www.ajc.com/services/content/printedition/2009/02/10/stimulus0210.html
27. Conference report 111-16, Division B Title II 2/13/09
28. Conference report 111-16
29. Conference report 111-16, 2-13-09, Title 14
30. "ReviewJournal.com - News - STIMULUS IN NEVADA: Raggio presses Reid: 'We can't be required to give what we don't have'". Lvrj.com. 2009-02-07. Retrieved 2009-02-18.
31. , NYT 2-15-09
32. ^ House Conference report 111-? Final partially handwritten report released by Nancy Pelosi's Office 2/13/09
33. ^ House Conference report 111-16 2/13/09
34. WSJ Feb. 12, 2009
35. Conference Report 111-16, 2-13-09
36. ^ "SUMMARY: AMERICAN RECOVERY AND REINVESTMENT" (PDF). Committee on Appropriations. 2009-02-13. Retrieved 2009-02-17.
37. Conference Report 111-16 Title 14, 2/13/09 Congressional Record
38. Stiglitz: Stimulus Must Be Big, Provide Relief To States, morningstar.com
39. Stimulus Gone Bad, NYTimes.com
40. Boston Herald, January 30, 2009
41. "Obama's Stimulus Package Will Increase Unemployment - Opinion". FOXNews.com. 2009-02-03. Retrieved 2009-02-18.
42. Bernanke Is the Best Stimulus Right Now, wsj.com
43. Investor's Business Daily
44. Economists say stimulus won’t work, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, January 29, 2009.
45. Cato Institute petition against Obama 2009 stimulus plan
46. Letter to Congress: Economists Across the Spectrum Endorse Stimulus Package, Center for American Progress Action Fund, January 27, 2009.
47. Official CBO report to the Senate budget committee
48. CBO-Budgetary Impact of ARRA
49. ^ letter by Douglas W. Elmendorf, director of the CBO, February 11, 2009

External links

• StimulusWiki.com - A wiki that helps break down and explain the stimulus bill
• ARRA of 2009 | The US Political Spectrum - News and Comments on stimulus bill
• Final VersionCongressional Record - Full text of American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
• Recovery.gov - A website of the Executive for transparency of actions taken under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
• Hive Group Treemap - The Hive Group Treemap of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009

• Articles lacking sources from February 2009
• 111th United States Congress
• Electric vehicle incentives
• Electric vehicle legislation
• Obama Administration
• Terms and concepts of the 2000s United States housing bubble
• United States federal banking legislation
• United States federal healthcare legislation
• United States federal housing legislation