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Less of an Encyclopedia article and more of a report

I'm a neutral observer here and I want to raise a point about the structure of this article. It really looks like a committee report with too many fine details and is not quite readable for those outside the field. Even my Professor who has a doctorate from MIT finds trouble in following this article. Can somebody take initiative in making this an encyclopedic article that is reachable to all learned people?

Sourcing previously unsourced text

I just used The Hockey Stick Illusion to source some previously unsourced text. I did not alter the text in any way. One full chapter in Illusion is dedicated to explaining how proxies are used in the research which produced the hockey stick. Cla68 (talk) 07:43, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

Bad idea. It's better to have text unsourced than sourced to a bad source - the second gives the impression of reliability. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 08:12, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

I've removed it. Even taking the broadest possible interpretation of the discussion at RS/N, HSi isn't a reliable source to factual information such as this. If you want it sourced, then the NAS report is a possibility. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 08:24, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

Do you have any reliably source information at all saying that the chapter on proxies in Illusion has issues? If not, it meets our definition of a reliable source. Cla68 (talk) 09:55, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

No. There is no presumption of reliability. The burden of showing reliability is on you. Is there any question that the NAS report is more reliable and hence a better source than some bloggers book? --Stephan Schulz (talk) 09:57, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

Who said we couldn't use NAS also? But yes, to answer your question, the book has been used as a source in two academic papers. Any other objections from anyone? Cla68 (talk) 10:25, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

Yes, there are lots of objections. Both here and on RS/N. Are you ignoring those? Please point out where the 2 academic references state anything about the accuracy of Montfords description of the temperature reconstructions. You can use the book to cite Montford's opinion, where such is notable and has weight, and possibly for uncontroversial historical information, where no more reliable reference is at hand. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 10:32, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

It's hard to see this as anything other than WP:POINTy behaviour, given that Cla68 knows full well that the book is not accepted as a reliable source. It's also pointless given that there are perfectly reliable, uncontroversial sources for the same material. I've repeatedly asked Cla68 what is the point of citing Montford when there are mainstream sources of undisputed reliability covering the same ground. So far Cla68 has not responded. This edit by Kim illustrates the point perfectly. In short: if something is worth reporting, it will already have been reported by a reliable source. There is simply no need to cite this book. -- ChrisO (talk) 09:58, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

Of course it is reliable. As has been proven time and time again. The only reason you guys are disputing the use of the book is due to your POV`s. Leave those at the door and perhaps we`ll actually get somewere for a change mark nutley (talk) 10:28, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

ChrisO, we're fortunate to have a comprehensive book which has been shown to be reliable by being used as a source in two academic papers. I see text in this article that is sourced to self-published sources, i.e. RealClimate and Climate Audit. I will use this book to better source that text. I assume no one here prefers self-published sources? Cla68 (talk) 10:30, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

I'm sorry Cla - but you are plain and simply doing WP:Wikipuffery here. Being cited in academic papers does not give reliability, and especially not when none of the papers actually cite the book for factual information (but why am i repeating myself - you know this). --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 10:35, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

The Hartwell Paper which has cited this book has also said This work conveniently relates the topics back to a detailed narrative of the major disputes in climate science, and specifically paleoclimate studies Which i believe proves what has been said all along, that this book is a history of the whole controversy. mark nutley (talk) 10:36, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

@MN: I don't think that comment adds anything to the discussion. Please remember your parole and why it was imposed, and just don't contribute to these discussions. As to Cla: yes, it does look rather like he is trying to make a point. @Cla: as people have told you before: this book *is* no better self-published, and what is useful as an RS depends on context. In this context, RC is certainly to be preferred. CA is reliable for nothing but McI's opinion. Please try and learn from the earlier conversations William M. Connolley (talk) 10:32, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

To summarize, here is the argument on why it is reliable, per WP:RS

• Published by an independent publisher? Yes.
• Favorably reviewed in mainstream media outlets? Yes. The Daily Telegraph, The Courier, and the National Post, for starters, as well as a regional newspaper.
• Used as a source by the academic/scientific community? Yes, twice.

Reasons given not to use it...none that I can see except, "None of your reasons are valid." No one here has yet to come up with a valid reason, supported by policy or reliable sources, to support the contention that this book has issues. Cla68 (talk) 10:58, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

How many of your "reviews" are actual reviews - as opposed to Opinion articles by pundits? Quite simple WP:Wikipuffery. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 12:22, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

Look, the issue here is really quite straightforward. Cla68, you are still evading my question. You know that the book is not generally accepted as a RS. You know that adding it to this or other articles is controversial. You know that the material you want to cite can be sourced to uncontroversial sources. You had a choice between controversial and uncontroversial. You know that the alternative sources are of far higher quality, as Kim just demonstrated. And yet you went with the controversial, low-quality source, deliberately provoking this completely unnecessary dispute. If you were solely interested in reliably sourcing uncited statements you could have cited the NAS report. Instead you conciously chose to pick a fight by using a source that you know other editors reject and that was going to get reverted out immediately. That is POINTy behaviour, pure and simple. -- ChrisO (talk) 11:03, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

Wrong Chris. Check some of the FA articles I've worked on. They, more often than not, have multiple sources for the text. When it comes to sourcing, more is better. You didn't respond to my summary of why the position that this book is reliable is much stronger than why it is not. This article has text that is sourced to self-published sources. That is something we definitely want to fix with a reliable secondary source, which I'm about to get started on. Cla68 (talk) 11:08, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

This doesn't add "more". If the HSi contains the information, then it got it from the NAS report. If there had been an independent validation involved, then we may have been talking about something else - but we aren't. And you are dodging again and again the reason that the reference is unreliable for anything other than Montford's opinion: The book is extremely POV. The books title even makes that clear: "The Hockey Stick Illusion: Climategate and the Corruption of Science". (not to mention the examples i gave above about one-sided information, and focus on conspiracy ("MWP made to dissappear")) --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 12:20, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

Kim, do you have a reliable secondary source to back up your claim that the book "is extremely POV?" I haven't seen anything which says that. Cla68 (talk) 12:25, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

Cla68, that is a rather strange question, since you have been asked several times not to reverse the burden here. If you cannot per common sense recognize that the title describes a POV viewpoint, and that lack of refutation of a book, doesn't mean that it is accurate. Then i'm afraid we have a problem. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 12:55, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

Well we have two sources saying it is a detailed narrative, the 14 guys who did the hartwell paper and judith curry. We have reviews saying much the same. You have vague accusations and thats about it. I think the burden of proof has been met. mark nutley (talk) 12:59, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

Andrew Montford’s The Hockey Stick Illusion is one of the best science books in years. It exposes in delicious detail, datum by datum, how a great scientific mistake of immense political weight was perpetrated, defended and camouflaged by a scientific establishment that should now be red with shame seems like a pretty good indication that the book is not a neutral report, if the title wasn't a dead giveaway.

Now, I don't doubt that HSI is probably reliable for certain statements of fact; I doubt we'd run into too much of a mess believing that such-and-such conference took place on so-and-so date, etc. However, since the book clearly has a GW-skeptical stance, it would be inappropriate to consider it as across-the-board a RS, since there will inevitably be interpretations of events/scientific fact that is either wrong or selectively presented to further Montford's point. For the parts that he might be reliable on, I'd expect that all that information would be readily present in more neutral, reliable sources, so we should probably just go ahead and use those instead. This is the case for all sources of this sort: we wouldn't cite An Inconvenient Truth here or The Omnivore's Dilemma in an article about the food industry or vegetarianism. It just isn't appropriate.

As far as conduct goes, I agree that Cla's use of the book as a source in spite of the ongoing discussion both here and at RS/N, generally against using the book, seems a bit tendentious. I am also curious as to what POVs MN thinks we have that are causing us to not want to use this book, if if it is, as he argues, free of bias. — DroEsperanto (talk) 14:00, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

It seems to me that there are two ways of approaching this, reflecting two different approaches to editing - one good and one bad. The good way is that of the pragmatic, consensus-seeking editor. He recognises that the goal is to find a source that everyone is happy with. He acknowledges that other editors have good-faith objections to his favourite source. He works with other editors to find agreement on sourcing and seeks to find an alternative source that everyone is happy with. This is basically what WP:CONSENSUS requires of Wikipedians. The bad way is that of the POV-pushing, "my way or the highway" editor. He rejects the good-faith objections of others and declares them to be "invalid" or motivated by POV. He makes no effort to seek consensus. He insists on using his source against the opposition of others and tries to force it into articles, even though he knows that doing so will provoke conflict and controversy. This is the approach of a partisan advocate, and is strongly discouraged - to the point that editors who do it persistently may end up being blocked or topic-banned.

The productive way forward on this is to take the first route and find sources that everyone is happy with. By contrast, trying to force sources into articles against the wishes of multiple other editors and dismissing their concerns out of hand is not productive, and it only ensures further unnecessary conflict. This dispute should not have happened - if the uncontentious high-quality source that Kim added had been used from the start, there would have been no controversy or conflict. -- ChrisO (talk) 19:00, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

I won't respond to your threatening statements, ChrisO, as they are definitely not very helpful and appear to be attempts at intimidation and bullying. What I will say, is that there is definitely no consensus on not using this book. In fact, it seems to be split fairly evenly. So, we're going to have to find a compromise. DroEsperanto makes a good point, and I appreciate his input, that the book is probably ok to use for basic facts such as the dates of events in the controversy's timeline. So, I'll voluntarily restrict my own use of the book to that kind of information in the article, and any use of the book for other types of information will be subject to discussion. Cla68 (talk) 22:35, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

No, I don't think even that's good enough. As Kim has said elsewhere, "we do not reference Erich von Däniken for measurements on the Pyramids, even if he got that part right." If a book is fringe, it shouldn't be cited at all. I note also that you've not responded to my suggestion above of using sources that everyone is happy with. That makes it rather clear which of the approaches to editing that I described you've chosen. I can pretty much guarantee that your approach will be met with the book being removed every time you try to use it, producing further needless conflict on talk pages. It's completely unnecessary - you can find the basic facts you mention in other uncontentious sources, so why not just use those and save everyone the trouble? -- ChrisO (talk) 22:50, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

The Hockey Stick controversy, from what I've seen, hasn't been well-documented in reliable secondary sources until this book was published. Isn't that why so many primary or self-published sources (i.e. RealClimate and Climate Audit) are used in this article? I'm suggesting a compromise here, not using this book for subjective information without consensus. Are you, or anyone else here, willing to compromise? Cla68 (talk) 22:59, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

Badly formed reference?

I was looking for a link to the NAS report (subsequently found) and thought there would be one in here.

In the section "Discussion of the MBH reconstruction" I see a sentence

On June 22, 2006, the Academy released a pre-publication version of its report Report-Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years,

I don't know what to make of the "". It looks like a failed attempt at a reference. Can someone closer to the history replace it with a proper reference, if that is all that is needed?--SPhilbrickT 16:20, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

There are loads of refs to the NAS report, the trouble (as you observed (and i did above as well)) is that the references/reference section are/is severely disorganized and broken. I'm giving it a go later, since this should be fixed - but if anyone wants to "scoop" me - feel free ;-) --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 16:33, 19 July 2010 (UTC)

I've looked at the page a little more - it does need some serious gnoming. In view of the general contentiousness - would it make sense to create a subpage draft, not with the intention of resolving big issues, just organizational issues, then replacing with cleaned up version? In some cases, I've found it helpful to start with an outline. Agree to the organizational outline, then copy and paste the existing material with tense and formatting cleanup. May make sense in this case.--SPhilbrickT 14:19, 20 July 2010 (UTC)

Probably. I'm currently thinking about how we can reference the individual pages in the books/reports, without repeating the citation template each time. Would probably have to use grouped-refs/notes to make it useful. We should consider moving the refs out of the text, and into the references section, as well, and only use named refs in the text. This has some drawbacks, but also a lot of upsides :) --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 14:24, 20 July 2010 (UTC)

For multiple use of references, particularly references with page numbers, my strong recommendation is for Misplaced Pages:Citation templates in a references section, with Harvnb inline citations giving the page numbers. More hints available on request for anyone not used to the system. . dave souza, talk 14:56, 20 July 2010 (UTC)

Yes, this is probably useful. But misses the posibility of linking to the specific page as well (as we can do with at least the NAS book). --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 15:01, 20 July 2010 (UTC)

There's a couple different ways it can be handled. (I'm not a big fan of Harvard referencing). One approach I'm using a fair amount is illustrated in Hazel Walker, where I am referencing multiple pages out of three books - include the full cite in a reference section, then a shorter ref with author and page number in Footnotes section.--SPhilbrickT 16:50, 20 July 2010 (UTC)

The thing about the other example that i like, is the connection between the notes section and the references. (ie. click and you go to the full citation). But i'd also like a way to go to the individual page in the reference as well. Some kind of in-between solution is needed i guess. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 17:09, 20 July 2010 (UTC)

Linking to individual pages is easy with the harvnb template, simply add a link and single square brackets to the page number(s) field: thus for *link* the field would be |p= or |pp= ... for an example see Fertilisation of Orchids where refs 3 has the author and year linking down to the book description in the references section, and pp. 127–128 as an external link to the pages cited. Easy. Don't know how to work the other methods. I've tended to keep things simple by only using this for references with multiple pages, so single page references are shown in full in the "Notes" section and don't appear in the "References" list. All of which has been accepted as legitimate. . . dave souza, talk 17:23, 20 July 2010 (UTC)

On structure, it's severely broken, possibly by trying to focus on "controversy" while ignoring the graphs. A better outline would be: origins (gw science and controversy, early graphs)/work and publication of MBH etc. inc. WMO, "hockey stick" name/IPCC AR4/initial controversy/published scientific criticisms and support (starting with Soon and Balunias)/Congress: House energy committee enquiries, North report, Wegman report, House energy committee hearings/further research/continued controversies/current state of play. Have a few good sources to hand, but bearing in mind the suggestion to leave this area alone for a bit, am having a short golfing holiday. All in due course, dave souza, talk 14:52, 20 July 2010 (UTC) update, note have tee'd off . . dave souza, talk 20:53, 20 July 2010 (UTC)

High level outline

Here's a first pass at a high level outline. It has some known deficiencies, discussed after the outline

Topical approach

• Lede (and graph)
• Mann, Bradley, Hughes reconstruction of surface temperature
  • Mann Bradley Hughes papers
  • Inclusion in IPCC report
  • Origin of the term "hockey Stick"
• Analyses of Mann, Bradley, Hughes methodology
  • McIntyre, McKitrick
  • National Research Council Report
  • Committee on Energy and Commerce Report
  • American Statistical Association session
  • Other challenges
• Other papers supporting same general shape of temperature graph

Deficiencies Need to fundamentally decide whether organization should be topical or chronological. For example, should the 2008 Mann et al update, be in the Mann section and the M&M response to that paper in the analyses section? Not satisfying. It may be better to be more chronological. Use of "other" is often a sign of poor structure - need to do better, but let's debate topical versus chron first.--SPhilbrickT 20:19, 20 July 2010 (UTC)

As it's a historical subject, the chron sequence seems best to me, not least because the name has been used for other graphs, and there were predecessors to MBH as in the FAR and the SAR. There's also the situation that Soon et al. was the first challenge, so needs attention before M&M, and the "hockey stick" term has recently been used for Jones's 1999 WMO graph which came after the two MBH papers but attracted little attention at the time and preceded the controversy about the TAR featuring MBH99 prominently. Acronyms translated on request if required ;-) . dave souza, talk 20:33, 20 July 2010 (UTC)

Yeah, you're right. I started on a topical index, and thought I might get away with achieving both, if the topics could be ordered chronologically. I realized that didn't work, so wanted to see if there was any support for a pure topical approach. Didn't really expect it, so I'll try again with a more chron oriented approach. But not right away, as relatives just dropped in, then I'm out of town for a couple days.--SPhilbrickT 20:46, 20 July 2010 (UTC)

Have updated my first thoughts above, have a good couple of days and look forward to resuming discussions. Thanks, dave souza, talk 20:55, 20 July 2010 (UTC)

I think it's a fairly good outline. I believe that more information on the controversy will be forthcoming in a few months time as more books come out on the Climategate controversy, of which the hockey stick controversy is a crucial part of its background. We will then have more sources to use to expand and improve this article. I seen no reason why this article can't someday be featured and presented on the main page. Cla68 (talk) 23:42, 20 July 2010 (UTC)

Looks like a good outline. David.Kane (talk) 00:38, 21 July 2010 (UTC)

Defending the indefensible?

Steve McIntyre has a new post reviewing the history of the Hockey Stick and its challengers , well worth reading. Parts should be incorporated here, as he makes several interesting quotes both from his and Mann's peer-reviewed articles. -- such as this remarkable quote from Mann's response to M&M re the Graybill bristlecones:

MM04 demonstrate their failure to understand our methods by claiming that we required that “proxies follow a linear temperature response”. In fact we specified (MBH98) that indicators should be “linearly related to one or more of the instrumental training patterns2", NOT local temperatures.

-- which McI aptly describes as "invoking qi". Others might simply call it bafflegab: "teleconnections", invisible pathways, meridians of qi....

Prof. Mann seems incapable of admitting errors, unless he does it sideways -- see this interesting post and thread at Bishop Hill. Interesting times, no? --Pete Tillman (talk) 20:52, 25 July 2010 (UTC)

Errm, you appear to be demonstrating your (and McI's) ignorance here. Though alas I too must demonstrate ignorance: what exactly is "qi" supposed to mean in this context? So, am I to take it that you don't understand what Mann is saying in that quote? If so, could you explain why your ignorance is of interest? Why do you think that teleconnections is "bafflegab", whatever that might be? William M. Connolley (talk) 21:23, 25 July 2010 (UTC)

WMC: I'm no paleoclimatologist -- but perhaps you could direct me to a reasonable (indeed, any) physical explanation of how tree-ring widths could record a distant temperature (vs. local) -- which appears to be what Prof. Mann is proposing? TIA & cheers, Pete Tillman (talk)

McIntyre's blog, as you know perfectly well, is not a reliable source. There's no point bringing up his latest missive when it can't be used anyway. If you want to have a private conversation with WMC about the science, please do so on his talk page or via email, not here. -- ChrisO (talk) 21:32, 25 July 2010 (UTC)

-- but quotes from published papers certainly are -- such as the one I quote. Plus, are you arguing that McI isn't a major player in the HS controversy? And what about ref#63 in this article ? Regards, Pete Tillman (talk) 21:36, 25 July 2010 (UTC)

Sorry, this is getting rather confusing. Perhaps you could drop all the qi stuff, and tell me exactly which piece of text from a published paper you're proposing to add to the article. Once we've got that out of the way yes I can try to explain what Mann is trying to tell you. Although I'm not clear that should be done here - this isn't an education forum for editors - perhaps you would be better off asking at my talk page William M. Connolley (talk) 22:34, 25 July 2010 (UTC)

Also, not sure what you mean by ref#63. Do you mean comment #63? Perhaps you could provide a link to the exact bit you mean William M. Connolley (talk) 22:36, 25 July 2010 (UTC)

Sure. #63 is " Climate Audit – by Steve McIntyre » von Storch and Zorita blog on the Hockey Stick" -- which, G. will note, is one blog quoting another. Not the best cite, I'd agree, but.... Pete Tillman (talk) 22:49, 25 July 2010 (UTC)

ChrisO, I agree with you. Climate Audit is not a reliable source. That is why the use of it as a source in this article, along with Mann's blog RealClimate, needs to go if we can find better sources, such as published books. Cla68 (talk) 22:41, 25 July 2010 (UTC)

Just to clarify, I'm not proposing to cite this CA post, but rather the peer-rev'd papers McI quotes therein. HTH, Pete Tillman (talk) 22:51, 25 July 2010 (UTC)

I agree with Tillman that it's ok to use the peer-reviewed papers as sources if they haven't been already. By the way, MacIntyre's comments on Mann's behavior at an NAS presentation are interesting. Although scientists have declined to criticize Mann publicly for his conduct in the Climategate emails, I suspect that his grant funding may quietly decline and his invitations to speak at conferences and symposiums will decrease. Time will tell and of course can only be stated in this article if reported in reliable sources. Not Climate Audit, Bishop Hill, or RealClimate. Cla68 (talk) 22:54, 25 July 2010 (UTC)

There's clearly nothing here of value to us (meaning the Climate Audit post). There may be something in the underlying peer-review material, but one must be very careful to avoid SYN. In other words, reproducing the McIntyre conclusion by citing the underlying articles is SYN, even assuming one stays away from the silliness about qi.--SPhilbrickT 00:44, 26 July 2010 (UTC)

What conduct in the e-mails? Remember that the most controversial ones (the "trick to hide the decline", etc) were not even written by him, and that the two PSU-initiated enquiries found him squeaky clean. His work has been validated repeatedly and the allegations against him have been found to be not true. We must not give the impression that that is not the case, as that would contradict the known facts. -- ChrisO (talk) 07:00, 26 July 2010 (UTC)

Is there any point to this thread? All there seems to be so far is confusion from Tillman (having fallen for McI's deliberate FUD) about how the reconstructions work, and some valueless speculation from Cla. If someone is proposing an addition to the article based on this text, could they state clearly what it is? William M. Connolley (talk) 08:08, 26 July 2010 (UTC)

--and your reply to my question (above) re Mannian teleconnections?As for the other, patience please. No deadlines here ;-) Pete Tillman (talk) 19:09, 26 July 2010 (UTC)

@ Pete, how do Mannian teleconnections differ from Judith A. Curryian teleconnections as discussed in this paper. Perhaps McIntyre has been pulling your leg? @ WMC, you were asking about Qi, the answer is probably in The Book of General Ignorance. . . dave souza, talk 19:27, 26 July 2010 (UTC)

@T: see my comment of 22:34, 25 July 2010. Though perhaps, if McI's pretended confusion is notable nad has confused others, we should add a section explaining his error? William M. Connolley (talk) 20:17, 26 July 2010 (UTC)

Virginia fraud investigation about Michael Mann as a result of the Climategate emails

Unless there is an objection, I will be adding this the article.

On May 4, 2010, it was reported that Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli had initiated a Virginia Fraud Against Taxpayers Act (Virginia Code §8.01-216.1. et seq.) investigation into the activities of Mann while he was a professor and researcher at the University of Virginia.(fn1)(fn2) On April 23, 2010, Cuccinelli served a demand that the university produce all available documents and correspondence of Mann, based on the possibility of fraud in the administration of four federal grants and one state grant.(fn2) The university's Faculty Senate has condemned the action and the "potential threat of legal prosecution."(fn2) The university has refused to produce the documents,(fn3) and in early July, Cuccinelli responded to the university's petition in the Albemarle County Circuit Court.(fn4)(fn5) The investigation is focused partially on whether Mann's Hockey Stick graph and other research "fraudulently manipulated data was used to win government funding and/or submitted in an effort to claim payment in government funded grants."(fn6) Mann has claimed the investigation is vindictive.(fn6)

fn1. "Va. AG investigates Climategate scientist". United Press International. May 4, 2010. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
fn2. "Science subpoenaed". Nature. 465. Nature Publishing Group: 135–136. 2010. doi:10.1038/465135b.
fn3. "UVA challenges Ken Cuccinelli's motives in climate research case". Richmond Times Dispatch. July 21, 2010. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
fn4. Helderman, Rosalind (July 13, 2010). "Cuccinelli uses court filing to dispute Mann climate research". Washington, DC: Washington Post Virginia Politics blog. Retrieved July 26, 2010. (editorial control over contents exercised by Washington Post)
fn5. Brief in Opposition to Petition, The Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia v. Kenneth T. Cuccinelli, Attorney General of Virginia, No. CL10000398-00, July 13, 2010

fn6. O'Dell, Larry (July 13, 2010). "Va AG: Academic freedom no bar to climate probe". Lebanon Daily News. Retrieved July 26, 2010.

Comments are welcome, and please let me know if there are any objections to the sources, as I have about 100 to choose from. Regards, Template:Unsigned-unk adding sig GregJackP Boomer! 00:28, 27 July 2010 (UTC)

This is already covered in Cuccinelli's bio, and in Mann's. It's inappropriate to use this article as a coatrack to further embarrass Cuccinelli. Guettarda (talk) 23:24, 26 July 2010 (UTC)

Actually, it might be more appropriate to give more detail on the controversy here, then just link from their bios to the section in this article. Cla68 (talk) 23:45, 26 July 2010 (UTC)

Why here? -- ChrisO (talk) 08:08, 27 July 2010 (UTC)

Good point. I did say "yes here" because this feels like a followup to Mann stuff. But really this is just part of the generic global warming controversy and should go there, if notable enough to William M. Connolley (talk) 08:43, 27 July 2010 (UTC)

Probably worth adding here, but the text you propose is far too kind to C. Even the RP Jr's of the world say his fishing expedition is trash, so we should report that clearly William M. Connolley (talk) 07:50, 27 July 2010 (UTC)

Lebanon Daily News - are you really that desperate? William M. Connolley (talk) 07:52, 27 July 2010 (UTC)

In contrast, Richard Muller...

User GregJackP's addition flowed poorly from the adjoining sentence so I checked with Plagium and the same text appears on CLIMATEPROGRESS.ORG ("In contrast, Professor Muller wrote...") Not a huge problem, I suppose, but if editors are going to lift material then at least change the words to reflect original content in our article. Wikispan (talk) 12:09, 8 August 2010 (UTC)

McShane and Wyner 2010

"A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures Over the Last 1000 Years Reliable?"

This is an interesting new article, in-press at Annals of Applied Statistics . A preprint can be downloaded from the journal's website: http://imstat.org/aoas/next_issue.html (currently the last article).

McShane & Wyner take the proxy compilation from Mann et al. 2008 and subject their proxy database to rigorous statistical tests. Their conclusions:

"We find that the proxies do not predict temperature significantly better than random series generated independently of temperature. Furthermore, various model specifications that perform similarly at predicting temperature produce extremely different historical backcasts. Finally, the proxies seem unable to forecast the high levels of and sharp run-up in temperature in the 1990s either in-sample or from contiguous holdout blocks, thus casting doubt on their ability to predict such phenomena if in fact they occurred several hundred years ago."

In essence, M&W find that the temp signal in the proxies is so weak that it is overwhelmed by noise -- see their Fig. 17 (p. 37). This is the same observation made by one of the reviewers in the Muir Russell review, and is the argument that Judith Curry is currently making in the blogosphere.

Probably premature for our article, as it hasn't yet been formally published, but a very clearly written paper by a prominent Wharton School statistician (Wyner) and his student McShane, a recent Ph.D., now at Northwestern University. Good to see some professional statisticians taking a hard look at this problem. Happy reading, Pete Tillman (talk) 05:03, 15 August 2010 (UTC)

This will be good. Annals of Applied Statistics is a peer-reviewed journal, and it appears that the article has been selected for publication. The authors are also well published with a number of articles a arXiv.org. GregJackP Boomer! 05:21, 15 August 2010 (UTC)

William M. Connolley (talk) 15:10, 17 August 2010 (UTC)

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