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Template:Future election The next Australian legislative election is expected to take place in 2007.

The opposition Australian Labor Party, currently led by Kim Beazley, will be challenging the incumbent Coalition government. It is not known whether the current Prime Minister, John Howard, will lead the Coalition into the election, or whether he will retire before the election, in which case Peter Costello is expected to succeed him. Nor is it known whether Beazley will retain the ALP leadership until the election.

House of Representatives

At the 2004 election the Coalition won 87 seats (Liberal 75, National 12), to the Labor Party's 60 seats. Three independents were elected. To gain outright control of the House of Representatives, the ALP will thus require a net gain of 16 seats.

Due to population shifts, Queensland will gain a seat at the expense of New South Wales in a redistribution to be conducted during 2006.

Marginal seats

On the current boundaries, the following are the Coalition parties' 16 most marginal seats. Assuming a uniform swing, Labor will need to win all these seats to gain government. These seats are commonly called the "key marginals."

• Kingston, SA (Kym Richardson, Liberal): 00.1
• Bonner, Qld (Ross Vasta, Liberal): 00.5
• Greenway, NSW (Louise Markus, Liberal): 00.6
• Wakefield, SA (David Fawcett, Liberal): 00.7
• Makin, SA (Trish Draper, Liberal): 00.9
• Braddon, Tas (Mark Baker, Liberal): 01.1
• Hasluck, WA (Stuart Henry, Liberal): 01.8
• Stirling, WA (Michael Keenan, Liberal): 02.0
• Eden-Monaro, NSW (Gary Nairn, Liberal): 02.2
• Bass, Tas (Michael Ferguson, Liberal): 02.6
• Solomon, NT (David Tollner, Liberal): 02.8
• Moreton, Qld (Gary Hardgrave, Liberal): 04.2
• Bennelong, NSW (John Howard, Liberal): 04.3
• Page, NSW Ian Causley, National): 04.4
• Hinkler, Qld (Paul Neville, National): 04.8
• McMillan, Vic (Russell Broadbent, Liberal): 04.9

Labor thus requires a uniform national two-party swing of 5.0% to win the election. In practice swing is never uniform, but variations of swing among the states tend to cancel each other out.

Prime Minister John Howard's seat of Bennelong, which has been held continuously by the Liberals since its creation in 1949, is now a key marginal. This area of Sydney has undergone substantial demographic change. The redistribution to take place in New South Wales may make Bennelong even more marginal. If Howard were to contest Bennelong and lose, it would be only the second time in Australian history that a sitting Prime Minister has been defeated in his own electorate.

Retiring members

The following members of the House of Representatives have announced they will retire at the 2007 election:

• Graham Edwards (ALP, Cowan, Western Australia) (announced January 2006)
• Harry Quick (ALP, Franklin, Tasmania) (announced August 2005)
• Robert Sercombe (ALP, Maribyrnong, Victoria) (announced February 28, 2006 he would not contest a preselection contest with Bill Shorten)

Possibly retiring members

Other members of the House of Representatives who may retire at the 2007 election include:

• John Anderson (National, Gwydir, NSW): retired as Deputy PM in July 2005 and retired to backbench due to health problems
• Bronwyn Bishop (Liberal, Mackellar, NSW): will be 65 in October 2007
• Alan Cadman (Liberal, Mitchell, NSW): will be 70 in August 2007
• Ian Causley (National, Page, NSW): will be 67 in October 2007. In February 2006 Glenn Milne of The Australian reported that he is expected to retire.
• Annette Ellis (ALP, Canberra, ACT): will be 61 in December 2007
• Warren Entsch (Liberal, Leichhardt, Queensland): will be 57 in 2007 (is expected to retire)
• John Forrest (National, Mallee, Vic): will be 58 in 2007. In February 2006 Glenn Milne of The Australian reported that he is expected to retire.
• Joanna Gash (Liberal, Gilmore, NSW): will be 63 in July 2007
• David Jull (Liberal, Fadden, Queensland): will be 63 in October 2007 (has been an MP for 30 years and is in poor health)
• Judi Moylan (Liberal, Pearce, Western Australia): will be 63 in February 2007
• Paul Neville (National, Hinkler, Queensland): will be 67 in March 2007 (but holds a key marginal seat)
• Roger Price (ALP, Chifley, NSW): will be 62 in November 2007 (but is Opposition Chief Whip)
• Philip Ruddock (Liberal, Berowra, NSW): will be 64 in March 2007 (but is a Cabinet minister)
• Rod Sawford (ALP, Port Adelaide, SA): will be 63 in June 2007 (must retire under ALP rules)
• Alby Schultz (Liberal, Hume, NSW): will be 68 in May 2007
• Bruce Scott (National, Maranoa, Qld): will be 64 in October 2007
• Alex Somlyay (Liberal, Fairfax, Qld): will be 61 in January 2007
• Wilson Tuckey (Liberal, O'Connor, WA): will be 72 in July 2007
• Mal Washer (Liberal, Moore, WA): will be 62 in August 2007

• Stewart McArthur, (Liberal Corangamite, Victoria), will be 70 in 2007 but has announced that he will be standing again.

Preselection challenges

In addition, several members are facing pre-selection challenges. These include:

Australian Labor Party

• Ann Corcoran (Isaacs, Victoria): being challenged by Mark Dreyfus, QC
• Simon Crean (Hotham, Victoria): being challenged by Martin Pakula of the National Union of Workers
• Michael Danby (Melbourne Ports, Victoria): being challenged by Henk van Leeuwen
• Alan Griffin (Bruce, Victoria): being challenged by Matt Carrick
• Harry Jenkins ((Scullin, Victoria): being challenged by Nathan Murphy
• Gavan O'Connor (Corio Victoria): being challenged by ACTU Vice-President Richard Marles
• Maria Vamvakinou (Calwell Victoria): being challenged by Burhan Yilgit

Liberal Party

• Petro Georgiou (Kooyong Victoria): being challanged by investment banker Joshua Frydenberg

The Age reported in February 2006 that while the challenge to Griffin was likely to fail, the challenges to Corcoran, Crean and O'Connor were expected to succeed. The challenges to Jenkins and Vamvakinou were reported in the week before the vote to be very close. The challenge to Danby is considered unlikely to succeed. Crean, Griffin and O'Connor are all members of the current Opposition Shadow Ministry.

Senate

To gain a majority in the Senate, Labor, the Greens and/or the Democrats would need to win two seats from the Coalition. Given that these parties won three of the six vacancies in each state at the 2001 election, they would have to win four vacancies out of six in two states when these seats come up for re-election in 2007. This is considered unlikely. If Labor or the Greens gain one seat from the Coalition, Steve Fielding of the Family First Party would hold the balance of power.

Australian Greens Senators Bob Brown and Kerry Nettle will both face re-election. There is some speculation about whether or not Brown will stand again, as if he were to stand for another term he would be 69 by the end of his third term. The Australian Democrats are expected to lose their remaining Senate representation, since all their four Senators are up for re-election and their performance remains consistently poor in the polls.

The following Senators have announced they will retire at the 2007 election:

• Jeannie Ferris (Liberal, South Australia): will be 66 in March 2007. The Australian reported on 3 February 2006 that Ferris will retire in 2007.
• Kay Patterson (Liberal, Victoria): has announced she will retire at the 2007 election
• Robert Ray (ALP, Victoria) has not renominated. The Victorian ALP Senate ticket will be former Senator Jacinta Collins, Senator Gavin Marshall, and ALP Assistant National Secretary David Feeney.

The following Senators are facing re-election in 2007 and may retire:

• Ron Boswell (National, Queensland): will be 67 in December 2007. He is seeking National Party endorsement for another term but is facing strong opposition.
• Paul Calvert (Liberal, Tasmania): will be 67 in January 2007 (but is President of the Senate)
• George Campbell (ALP, NSW): will be 64 in February 2007 (must retire under ALP rules)
• Grant Chapman (Liberal, South Australia): will be 56 in April 2007 (relatively young but has been an MP and Senator for 30 years and has never held office)
• Alan Eggleston (Liberal, Western Australia}: will be 66 in December 2007
• Ross Lightfoot (Liberal, Western Australia): will be 71 in August 2007
• John Watson (Liberal, Tasmania): will be 70 in January 2007

Election timetable

Given the result of the 2004 election, it is more likely than not that the 2007 election will be a regular election, and not a double dissolution election.

The last date on which the next election can be held is calculated in the following way:

• Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House."

• Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof."

• Section 156 (1) of the Electoral Act says: "the date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ."

• Section 157 of the Electoral Act says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination."

This parliament first met on 16 November 2004. Therefore it expires on 16 November 2007. The writs must therefore be issued by 26 November 2007 (ten days after the expiry). The last date on which nominations can close is therefore 23 December 2007 (27 days after the writs). The last Saturday on which polling can take place therefore is 19 January 2008 (30 day period following the nomination would expire on the 22nd.). However, no Australian Prime Minister has yet called an election to take place in January.

External link

• Australian Parliamentary Library research note

• Elections in Australia
• 2007 elections