| Revision as of 18:19, 15 June 2014 editJ. Johnson (talk | contribs)Autopatrolled, Extended confirmed users, IP block exemptions19,647 editsm Archived stale comment.← Previous edit | Revision as of 18:36, 15 June 2014 edit undo64.134.150.40 (talk) Undid revision 613040515 by J. Johnson (talk) Useful information that doesn't need to be archived so quickly. ~~~~Next edit → | ||
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| ] contains discussions pertinent to the old version (last revised ) prior to restructuring. | ] contains discussions pertinent to the old version (last revised ) prior to restructuring. | ||
| == NOTICE: ANI discussion re. ], ] and User:J. Johnson, commitment to not revert == | |||
| There was of this article. | |||
| A topic ban was proposed, and there were 4 !votes in support and 1 in opposition of a topic ban. The oppose vote was prompted by a commitment by User:J. Johnson to be "resigned to whatever happens to the article, and particularly ... no reversions."--<span class="nowrap">{{U|]}}</span> <sup>(] • ] • ])</sup> 02:15, 14 May 2014 (UTC) | |||
| :Abundant discussion related to this development can also be found in ]. ] (]) 18:26, 15 May 2014 (UTC) | |||
| == Prediction vs forecasting == | == Prediction vs forecasting == | ||
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/Archive 1 contains discussions pertinent to the old version (last revised 20 June 2012) prior to restructuring.
NOTICE: ANI discussion re. WP:OWN, WP:DE and User:J. Johnson, commitment to not revert
There was a discussion on AN/I[, Disruptive editing by User:J. Johnson of this article.
A topic ban was proposed, and there were 4 !votes in support and 1 in opposition of a topic ban. The oppose vote was prompted by a commitment by User:J. Johnson to be "resigned to whatever happens to the article, and particularly ... no reversions."--{{U|Elvey}} 02:15, 14 May 2014 (UTC)
- Abundant discussion related to this development can also be found in /Archive 3. 64.134.48.248 (talk) 18:26, 15 May 2014 (UTC)
Prediction vs forecasting
The introduction makes a distinction between earthquake prediction and earthquske forecasting, and yet there is no separate wiki page for earthquake forecasting. Indeed, earthquake forecasting redirects to this prediction page. So it seems this is a loose end that might be reasonably tidied up. 166.147.88.26 (talk) 00:44, 9 June 2014 (UTC)
- Good point. I suggest that the article be expanded to cover both topics, since they are closely related. Joe Bodacious (talk) 01:15, 9 June 2014 (UTC)
- If we accept that "forecasting" is a statistical statement of future occurrences, while "prediction" is about the occurrence of a specific earthquake, then the discussion in the present article concerning statistical significance is very appropriate for the evaluation of forecasting methods. More generally, the distinction between forecasting and prediction is slightly gray. 128.138.65.45 (talk) 13:25, 9 June 2014 (UTC)
- Also, I removed the statement about "naive" assumption of null hypothesis of randomness. In some cases, especially for the global occurrence of large earthquakes, a null hypothesis of randomness in time is actually appropriate. As always, the issue is whether or not the simple null hypothesis can be rejected, and for large earthquakes, like above M8, it is very difficult to reject randomness in time. It is only when you start getting into aftershocks that the randomness in time hypothesis really starts to be obviously violated. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 128.138.65.45 (talk) 13:39, 9 June 2014 (UTC)
- On a smaller topic it might be acceptable to cover several closely related topics. But this article has quite enough to cover as it is, and will only confuse people if it tries to cover other topics. So even though earthquake forecasting is closely related, with a lot of overlap, it is a different topic, with distinct differences. E.g.: Prediction is (as stated in the lead sentence) about determining the specific time, location, and magnitude of the next strong earthquake. Forecasting is the assessment for a broad region of the probability of any earthquake of a given magnitude in some extended period of time. These are quite different approaches, with vastly different public policy ramifications.
- That earthquake forecasting redirects to this article is only a stop-gap until someone writes that article. Which anyone may do. Trying to slap such material onto this article would confuse both topics, and create a difficult task when eventually it is realized that the topics have to be split and that material extracted. Better to develop that topic on its own page from the start, even if it is only a stub. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 01:07, 11 June 2014 (UTC)
Faulty "word smithing" introduces bias
In this edit ("Word smithing a sentence") 166.147.88.22 changed "intense optimism amongst scientists" to "many geophysicists were optimistic". This is faulty on several counts: 1) "Intense optimism" is the precise term used by one of the sources. (I've added the missing citation.) 2) "Geophysicists" is not in the sources; the context is scientists. 3) "Many" is indefinite and weasely, diminishing what was a predominant opinion, and thus giving a biased impression the situation. This should be corrected. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 00:53, 11 June 2014 (UTC)
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