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| '''John R. Lott Jr.''' (born ], ]) is currently a resident scholar at the ]. Fields of interest for research include ], ], ], ], ], ] and ]. He studied ] at ], receiving a ] in ], ] in ] and ] in ], and spent several years as a visiting professor and as a fellow at ], the home of the ] movement; this school of thought holds that all laws should be derived from what produces the greatest good for the greatest number, rather than abstract notions of human rights or justice. In practice, this leads to a pronounced philosophical bias against government regulation in general, and has produced much of the policy of the US ] party since the presidency of ]. Lott went on to work at other institutions, for instance ] School of Law, before taking a position at the American Enterprise Institute, generally considered a right-wing think tank. | '''John R. Lott Jr.''' (born ], ]) is currently a resident scholar at the ]. Fields of interest for research include ], ], ], ], ], ] and ]. He studied ] at ], receiving a ] in ], ] in ] and ] in ], and spent several years as a visiting professor and as a fellow at ], the home of the ] movement; this school of thought holds that all laws should be derived from what produces the greatest good for the greatest number, rather than abstract notions of human rights or justice. In practice, this leads to a pronounced philosophical bias against government regulation in general, and has produced many of the policymakers (''i.e.'' ]) and much of the policy of the US ] party since the presidency of ]. Lott went on to work at other institutions, for instance ] School of Law, before taking a position at the American Enterprise Institute, generally considered a right-wing think tank. | ||
| == More guns, less crime? == | == More guns, less crime? == | ||
Revision as of 16:40, 13 October 2004
John R. Lott Jr. (born May 8, 1958) is currently a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Fields of interest for research include Econometrics, Law and economics, Public Choice, Industrial Organization, Public Finance, Microeconomic Theory and Environmental Regulation. He studied Economics at UCLA, receiving a Bachelor of Arts in 1980, Masters of Arts in 1982 and Ph.D. in 1984, and spent several years as a visiting professor and as a fellow at University of Chicago, the home of the Law and economics movement; this school of thought holds that all laws should be derived from what produces the greatest good for the greatest number, rather than abstract notions of human rights or justice. In practice, this leads to a pronounced philosophical bias against government regulation in general, and has produced many of the policymakers (i.e. Robert Bork) and much of the policy of the US Republican party since the presidency of Ronald Reagan. Lott went on to work at other institutions, for instance Yale University School of Law, before taking a position at the American Enterprise Institute, generally considered a right-wing think tank.
More guns, less crime?
Although Lott has published prolifically in academic journals regarding the beneficial aspects of government deregulation of various areas, and has also published in the popular press on conservative topics as the validity of the 2000 presidential election results in Florida, he is primarily known outside of academic econometrics for his involvement in gun politics, and his arguments regarding the benefical results of freely allowing Americans to own and carry guns.
- "...the evidence is that, with more than 2 million defensive guns used each year, guns are used at least four times more frequently to stop crime than they are used to commit crime."
In his books More Guns, Less Crime and The Bias Against Guns, he presents statistical evidence for his claim that allowing adults to carry concealed weapons has significantly reduced crime in America.
Contested scholarship
Lott's work is criticized by gun control groups as well as some skeptics within the gun rights movement. He has been accused of identifying only those interpretations of his data which promote a pro-gun agenda, and ignoring alternative interpretations. In particular his model showing that a substantial reduction in crime occurs in those states which eliminate laws restricting concealed carrying of a firearm have been criticized on these grounds.
Lott's work has also been plagued by coding errors and other statistical manipulations. Subsequent peer-reviewed work reached opposite conclusions from Lott's studies. Lott's op-eds and other popular works have been found to contain a number of elementary errors.
Lott's critics have also pointed to a survey Lott claims to have conducted, in which he found that in only 2% of defensive gun uses was it necessary for the defender to fire the gun at all, either at the perpetrator or as a warning. Although this represents only a minor side-issue from Lott's main work, Lott has referred to this study result numerous times in print, in public, and even in sworn testimony before legislative bodies attempting to formulate optimal gun laws. This figure contradicts at least nine other, independent studies which give much lower figures, Lott was unable to provide evidence for his findings. Lott could not provide any evidence the survey was done but excused himself by saying that the data was accidentally lost in a computer crash, no paper records were kept, and the work was done by volunteer students (so no pay records exist).
Fake online persona
In early 2003 John Lott admitted that he had created and used "Mary Rosh" as a fake persona to defend his own works in Internet discussion forums. "Rosh" claimed to be one of Lott's former students:
- "I had him for a PhD level empirical methods class when he taught at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania back in the early 1990s, well before he gained national attention, and I have to say that he was the best professor that I ever had. You wouldn't know that he was a 'right-wing' ideologue from the class."
While Lott was declining invitations to take part in such online discussions under his own name, he used the Rosh persona to defend his methods online. The identity was also used for a five star review on Amazon.com, although Lott claims that his son and wife wrote it, and he merely approved it. He states that the name "Mary Rosh" derived from the first two letters of his four sons' first names.
Lott's actions were discovered when weblogger Julian Sanchez noticed that the IP address Lott used to reply to an email was the same he had used to take part in discussions under the name "Mary Rosh". After the discovery, Lott stated to the Washington Post: "I probably shouldn't have done it -- I know I shouldn't have done it -- but it's hard to think of any big advantage I got except to be able to comment fictitiously."
Lott's critics have said that the incident calls into question Lott's trustworthiness, and therefore his entire work. His defenders reject such claims as ad hominem attacks, a claim which has been countered by some critics who state that they do not say Lott's work is logically incorrect because of his assumption of a fake identity, only that he is less trustworthy now .
Media bias?
Lott claims that selective reporting by US media fails to report instances of people defending themselves (or others) via legal use of guns. For example, a school shooting was reportedly ended by students who tackled the gunman, but Lott quotes Tracy Bridges who says he pointed his gun at the killer, who then dropped his weapon before being tackled. However, another witness contradicts this, saying that the killer put his (empty) gun down before Bridges arrived.
External links
Regarding Lott's research:
- John Lott's website
- John Lott's weblog (annotated)
- Disinfopedia: Summary of John Lott's errors
- Tim Lambert: John Lott's unethical conduct (weblog)
- Tim Lambert: Do more guns cause less crime?
- Ted Goertzel: Myths of Murder and Multiple Regression
- Otis Dudley Duncan: Gun Use Surveys: In Numbers We Trust?
Regarding the Mary Rosh identity:
- Washington Post story about Lott's fake identity
- Archive of Mary Rosh posts
- Julian Sanchez' weblog
- Who is Mary Rosh?, anti-Lott website that links to several articles