2017 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election: Difference between revisions

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Revision as of 06:08, 5 January 2017 edit188.135.48.208 (talk) →Opinion polls ← Previous edit		Revision as of 06:44, 5 January 2017 edit undo2405:204:a004:e9a7:d32:4646:34b6:6d80 (talk) →Caste and religion data: removed for quality and better readability.Tag: section blankingNext edit →
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	===Other political developments{{relevance inline\|date=December 2016}}===		===Other political developments{{relevance inline\|date=December 2016}}===
	In May 2016, Prime Minister ] launched 11 solar-powered “e-boats” in Varanasi, in a move to reach out to Mallah community. On 26 December 2016, U.P Government government cleared the inclusion of 17 Other Backward Castes- Kahar, Kashyap, Kewat, Nishad, Bind, Bhar, Prajapati, Rajbhar, Batham, Gauriya, Turha, Majhi, Mallah, Kumhar, Dheemar, Dheewar and Machhua, in the Scheduled Castes (SC) category.		In May 2016, Prime Minister ] launched 11 solar-powered “e-boats” in Varanasi, in a move to reach out to Mallah community. On 26 December 2016, U.P Government government cleared the inclusion of 17 Other Backward Castes- Kahar, Kashyap, Kewat, Nishad, Bind, Bhar, Prajapati, Rajbhar, Batham, Gauriya, Turha, Majhi, Mallah, Kumhar, Dheemar, Dheewar and Machhua, in the Scheduled Castes (SC) category.

	===Caste and religion data===
	As per ], Dalits constitute 21.1% of Uttar Pradesh population.<ref>{{cite web\|url=http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Job-better-than-aid-say-UP-dalits/articleshow/11623741.cms \|title=Job better than aid, say UP dalits - Times of India \|newspaper=The Times of India \|date= \|author=Shailvee Sharda \|accessdate= July 6, 2016}}</ref><ref>{{cite web \|url=http://www.indiatvnews.com/politics/national-up-polls-why-is-bjp-hesitating-in-announcing-its-cm-candidate-334855 \|title=UP polls: Why is BJP hesitating in announcing its CM candidate? \|newspaper=Indiatvnews.com \|date= \|author= \|accessdate= July 6, 2016}}</ref><ref>{{cite web\|url=http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Half-of-Indias-dalit-population-lives-in-4-states/articleshow/19827757.cms\|title=Half of India’s dalit population lives in 4 states - Times of India\|publisher=}}</ref> Mallah community is divided in 27 sub-castes. ] (OBCs) constitute 40% of U.P population.<ref>{{cite web\|url=http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/UP-has-the-highest-OBC-population-in-all-Indian-states/articleshow/2012439.cms\|title=UP has the highest OBC population in all Indian states}}</ref><ref>{{cite web\|url=http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/why-smaller-castes-could-hold-the-key-to-power-in-2017-uttar-pradesh-assembly-polls-4447802/\|title=Why smaller castes could hold the key to power in 2017 UP Assembly polls}}</ref><ref>{{cite web\|url=http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/survey-puts-obc-population-at-40-pc/story-CuajzBUPRt4LZCtiw6aSbI.html\|title=Survey puts OBC population at 40 pc}}</ref><ref>{{cite web\|url=http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2007-05-07/news/28386153_1_population-backward-classes-census\|title=OBC population in UP stands at 7 crore}}</ref> There are 200-odd non-Yadav OBCs in U.P. In Uttar Pradesh, Muslims are divided into 68 castes and sub-castes, 35 of them are OBCs. Forward castes constitute around 19% of Uttar Pradesh population,<ref>{{cite web\|url=http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/uttar-pradesh-polls-bsp-sp-and-bjp-leaving-no-stone-unturned-to-come-up-trumps/articleshow/52811761.cms?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ETFBMain\|title=Uttar Pradesh polls: BSP, SP and BJP leaving no stone unturned to come up trumps}}</ref> in which Brahmins are 10% and Thakurs are 7.6%.<ref>{{cite web\|url=http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/The-angry-Thakurs-of-Uttar-Pradesh/articleshow/597545.cms\|title=The angry Thakurs of Uttar Pradesh}}</ref><ref>{{cite web\|url=https://scroll.in/article/676553/bjp-seeks-new-thakur-leader-to-replace-rajnath-singh-in-up\|title=BJP seeks new Thakur leader to replace Rajnath Singh in UP}}</ref> For accurate caste population data in India, ] has not publicly released ] ''caste population data'' for every single non-SC/ST castes (General castes, OBC/EBCs) in India.<ref>{{cite web \|url=http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/national/centre-not-releasing-caste-census-data-because-it-doesnt-want-to-face-mandal-ii/article7404307.ece \|title=‘Centre not releasing caste census data because it doesn't want to face Mandal II' \|newspaper=Thehindubusinessline.com \|date= \|author= \|accessdate= July 6, 2016}}</ref><ref>{{cite web \|url=http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-centre-releases-census-data-on-religion-hides-caste-figures-2118491 \|title=Centre releases census data on religion, hides caste figures \|newspaper=Dnaindia.com \|date= \|author= \|accessdate= July 6, 2016}}</ref><ref>{{cite web \|url=http://scroll.in/article/746204/before-releasing-caste-numbers-the-government-needs-to-account-for-discrepancies-in-data \|title=Before releasing caste numbers, the government needs to account for discrepancies in data \|newspaper=Scroll.in \|date= \|author= \|accessdate= July 6, 2016}}</ref><ref>{{cite web \|url=http://www.youthkiawaaz.com/2016/03/socio-economic-caste-census/ \|title=Why Is Modi Govt. Hiding Socio-Economic Caste Census 2011 Data? \|newspaper=Youthkiawaaz.com \|date= \|author= \|accessdate= July 6, 2016}}</ref><ref>{{cite web \|url=http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/castebased-census-data-should-be-made-public-demand-bihar-cm-nitish-kumar/article8769021.ece \|title=Caste-based Census data should be made public, demand Bihar CM Nitish Kumar - The Hindu \|newspaper=Thehindu.com \|date= \|author= \|accessdate= July 6, 2016}}</ref>
	{\| class="wikitable" \|
	\|-
	! colspan="3" \| Castes of Uttar Pradesh <ref>{{cite web\|url=http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/standpoint-how-bjp-is-changing-the-caste-arithmetic-in-uttar-pradesh-1984032\|title=How BJP is changing the caste arithmetic in Uttar Pradesh - Latest News & Updates at Daily News & Analysis\|date=1 May 2014\|publisher=}}</ref><ref>{{cite web\|url=http://5forty3.in/2014/01/uttar-pradesh-the-darling-of-2014/ \|title=Archived copy \|accessdate=2016-02-15 \|deadurl=yes \|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20160308041742/http://5forty3.in/2014/01/uttar-pradesh-the-darling-of-2014/ \|archivedate=8 March 2016 \|df=dmy }}</ref><ref>{{cite web\|url=http://swarajyamag.com/politics/the-scramble-for-dalit-votes-in-uttar-pradesh/\|title=The Scramble For Dalit Votes In Uttar Pradesh\|publisher=}}</ref><ref>{{cite web\|url=http://english.pradesh18.com/news/bihar/up-govt-declares-holiday-on-maharana-pratap-jayanti-to-woo-thakur-votes-731133.html\|title=UP govt declares holiday on Maharana Pratap Jayanti to 'woo' Thakur voters\|publisher=}}</ref><ref>{{cite web\|url=http://www.outlookindia.com/article/brahmins-in-india/234783\|title=Brahmins population in India}}</ref>
	\|-
	\|Caste \|\| Population (%) \|\|Notes
	\|-
	\| ]
	\|\| 40%
	\|\| Yadavs -8%<br> Lodhi -7%<br> Jats -1.7%<br> KUSHWAHA(MAURYA, SHAKYA, KOERI, KACHHI, SAINI) -4%<br> Kurmi - 3%<br>Other OBCs(including Sunars, other Hindu OBCs) -16%
	\|-
	\| ]s(SCs)
	\|\| 21.1%
	\|\| Jatavs Dalits -11%<br> Non-Jatav Dalits(includes Pasis, Mallah and Valmikis) -9%
	\|-
	\| Tribals (STs)
	\|\| 0.8%
	\|
	\|-
	\| ]
	\|\|19%
	\|\| Brahmins -10%<br> Thakur - 7.6%<br>Vaishya - 2%<br>Tyagi and Bhumihar -1%
	\|-
	\| Muslims
	\|\|19.3%
	\|
	\|-
	\| Christians
	\|\|0.18%
	\|
	\|}

	== Political developments ==		== Political developments ==

Revision as of 06:44, 5 January 2017

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Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly election, 2017

← 2012

11 February - 8 March 2017

2022 →

All 403 seats of Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly
202 seats needed for a majority

	Majority party	Minority party	Third party
		File:Mayawati.JPG	File:BJP election symbol.svg
Leader	Akhilesh Yadav	Kumari Mayawati	Keshav Prasad Maurya
Party	SP	BSP	BJP
Leader's seat	MLC	None	-
Last election	224, 29.13%	80, 25.91%	47, 15%
Seats before	97	206	51

	Fourth party	Fifth party

Leader	Sheila Dikshit	Jayant Chaudhary
Party	INC	RLD
Leader's seat	None	None
Last election	28, 11.63%	09, 2.33%
Seats before	22	10

Chief Minister before election

Akhilesh Yadav
Samajwadi Party

Elected Chief Minister

TBD

The 17th Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election will be held from February 11 to March 8 2017 in 7 phases. In the previous election in 2012, the Samajwadi Party won a majority and formed government in the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav.

Background

Electoral process changes

In January 2016, the Election Commission of India published updated electoral rolls in all 403 assembly segments. In July 2016, Election Commission decided to increase the number of polling booths in Uttar Pradesh for the 2017 Assembly elections. New polling centres will be planned in the constituencies having more than 1,500 registered voters as well as polling booths in six constituencies of Muzaffarnagar, Budhana, Purkazi, Khatoli, Charthawal and Midanpur to be raised from 1,769 to 1,819 booths. Voter assistance booths would be set up and photo slip of voters in a new design would be sent to them. First time, the Form-2B would contain the photograph of the candidates and their nationality.

Voter-verified paper audit trail (VVPAT) machines will be used along with EVM in 20 assembly constituencies covering 14 districts including Bareilly constituency.

Assembly constituencies of Uttar Pradesh having VVPAT facility with EVMs
Lucknow West	Lucknow North	Lucknow East	Agra Cantonment
Agra South	Aligarh	Bareilly	Govind Nagar
Arya Nagar	Ghaziabad	Meerut	Moradabad
Saharanpur Nagar	Allahabad North	Allahabad South	Ayodhya
Gorakhpur Urban	Jhansi Nagar	Varanasi North	Varanasi Cantonment

As per the special summary revision of electoral rolls, there are a total of 14.05 crore voters in Uttar Pradesh as of January 2015.

Final voters list for Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election 2017
S.No	Group of voters	Voters population
1	Male	7.7 crore
2	Female	6.3 crore
3	Third Gender	6,983
Total Voters		14.05 crore

Other political developments

In May 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched 11 solar-powered “e-boats” in Varanasi, in a move to reach out to Mallah community. On 26 December 2016, U.P Government government cleared the inclusion of 17 Other Backward Castes- Kahar, Kashyap, Kewat, Nishad, Bind, Bhar, Prajapati, Rajbhar, Batham, Gauriya, Turha, Majhi, Mallah, Kumhar, Dheemar, Dheewar and Machhua, in the Scheduled Castes (SC) category.

Political developments

Bahujan Samaj Party

2017 elections in Uttar Pradesh are said to be close contest between Bahujan Samaj Party and Bharatiya Janata Party. From August 2016, BSP held series of ‘Sarvajan Hitay, Sarvajan Sukhay’ rallies starting from Agra, followed by Mega rallies in Azamgarh, Allahabad and Saharanpur. In these rallies, Mayawati attacked misrule and Gundaraj of Samajwadi Party, Communal politics and Unfulfilled promises of achhe din by Bharatiya Janata Party and also ugly politics of Congress. On 9 October 2016, for tenth Parinirvana divas of BSP founder Kanshi Ram at Manyawar Shri Kanshiram Ji Green Eco Garden, a massive crowd gathered from all over the State. BSP has given more than 100 tickets to Muslim candidates, highest in UP till date. In August 2016, four Muslim MLAs, 3 from Congress (Nawab Kazim Ali Khan, Dilnawaz Khan, Mohammad Muslim Khan) and 1 from Samajwadi Party (Nawazish Alam Khan) and also a former Bharatiya Janata Party minister Awadesh Kumar Verma joined BSP. Four Muslim MLAs, three from Congress and one from Samajwadi Party have joined BSP. It is speculated that Muslims may prefer BSP over SP in the upcoming elections.

Bharatiya Janata Party

BJP is trying to woo voters in Uttar Pradesh with Development agenda. It is rumored that Mayawati is trying her best to gain from BJP's political activists, by making them join BSP, meanwhile alleging BJP of accepting the rejected politicians of BSP. On the other hand, political leaders from other parties have joined BJP in the run-up to the elections.

Samajwadi Party

On 28 March 2016, Samajwadi Party released its first candidate list of 142 contestants for Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections 2017. Party was expected to return into power in the forthcoming elections though the family clashes has wrecked its image.

On 30 December 2016, Mulayam Singh Yadav expelled his son Akhilesh Yadav and his cousin Ram Gopal Yadav from the party for six years on the grounds of indiscipline but re-inducted within 24 hours after a meet of 200 of the party’s 229 MLAs at Akhilesh residence. The ruling Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh split down the middle with the faction headed by Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav removing Mulayam Singh Yadav as party chief and appointing him in his place at a convention in which the group claimed support of the majority of legislators and district units.

In June 2016, Akhilesh Yadav Government undertook the seventh and last cabinet expansion.

Indian National Congress

Congress declared Sheila Dikshit as it CM Candidate for 2017 elections.The duo of Raj Babbar and Mrs.Dikshit may improve the worsend conditions of Congress. Priyanka Gandhi is also expected to take part in Congress rallies, but it still remains a rumor. Veteran leader Rita Bahuguna joshi`s defection to BJP may impact its outreach to the powerful Brahmin community of UP. Congress party has hired Prashant Kishor, a famous poll strategist, to help the party to come back to power in Uttar Pradesh. However, general feeling is that the things are not working as planned and there is rift between Congress Party and Prashant Kishor's team.

Election issues

The most important issue is said to be law and order of the state and as in every election caste and Religion will play the key reasons for voters. BJP may also try to pop up the Army`s surgical strikes across LOC as an elections issue to counter BSP.

Schedule

Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh will be held between 11 February to 8 March 2017. The term of the present government will end on 27 May 2017.

On 4 January 2017, The Election Commission of India announced the election schedule to the Legislative Assembly of Uttar Pradesh along with the other four state (Goa, Manipur, Punjab and Uttarakhand) which are due for an election. The entire election is scheduled into 7 phases.

Phase	Name of District	No. of Assembly Constituencies
Phase-1 (11 February 2017)	Shamli	3
	Muzaffarnagar	6
	Baghpat	3
	Meerut	7
	Ghaziabad	5
	Gautam Buddha Nagar	3
	Hapur	3
	Bulandshahar	7
	Aligarh	7
	Mathura	5
	Hathras	3
	Agra	9
	Firozabad	5
	Etha	4
	Kasganj	3
Phase-2 (15 February 2017)	Saharanpur	7
	Bijnor	8
	Moradabad	6
	Sambhal	4
	Rampur	5
	Bareilly	9
	Amroha	4
	Pilibhit	4
	Kheri	8
	Shahjahanpur	6
	Badaun	6
Phase-3 (19 February 2017)	Farrukhabad	4
	Hardoi	8
	Kannauj	3
	Mainpuri	4
	Etawah	3
	Auraiya	3
	Kanpur Dehat	4
	Kanpur Nagar	10
	Unnao	6
	Lucknow	9
	Barabanki	6
	Sitapur	9
Phase-4 (23 February 2017)	Pratapgarh	7
	Kaushambi	3
	Allahabad	12
	Jalaun	3
	Jhansi	4
	Lalitpur	2
	Mahoba	2
	Hamirpur	2
	Banda	4
	Chitrakoot	2
	Fatehpur	6
	Rae Bareli	6
Phase-5 (27 February 2017)	Balrampur	4
	Gonda	7
	Faizabad	5
	Ambedkar Nagar	5
	Bahraich	7
	Shrawasti	2
	Siddharthnagar	5
	Basti	5
	Sant Kabir Nagar	3
	Amethi	4
	Sultanpur	5
Phase-6 (4 March 2017)	Maharajganj	5
	Kushi Nagar	7
	Gorakhpur	9
	Deoria	7
	Azamgarh	10
	Mau	4
	Ballia	7
Phase-7 (8 March 2017)	Ghazipur	7
	Varanasi	8
	Chandauli	5
	Mirzapur	4
	Bhadohi	3
	Sonbhadra	4
	Jaunpur	9

Opinion polls

Various organisations/agencies will be conducting opinions polls to predict voter intentions in the upcoming legislative assembly elections.

Date	Ref	Polling org./Agency	BSP	BJP	SP	INC	Others
Date	Ref	Polling org./Agency	bgcolor="Template:Bahujan Samaj Party/meta/color" \|	bgcolor="Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" \|		bgcolor="Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" \|
May 2016		ABP News Opinion Poll	185	120	80	13	5
Jul-Aug 2016		ABP News-Lokniti	103-113	124-134	141-151	8-14	6-12
Aug 2016		India TV-CVoter	95-111	134-150	133-149	5-13	4-12
Oct 2016		India Today-Axis	115-124	170-183	94-103	8-12	2-6
Jan 2017		ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS	93-103	129-139	141-151	13-19	N/A
Jan 2017		India Today-Axis	79-85	206-216	92-97	5-7	7-11