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== Opinion polls == | == Opinion polls == | ||
Various organisations/agencies have been conducting opinions polls to predict voter intentions in the upcoming legislative assembly elections. | |||
<!-- Please specify name of the polling agencies and cite relevant sources. --> | |||
{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center;font-size:90%;line-height:30px;" | |||
|- | |||
! class="wikitable" rowspan="2" | Date | |||
! class="wikitable" rowspan="2" | Ref | |||
! class="wikitable" rowspan="2" | Polling org./Agency | |||
| bgcolor="{{Bahujan Samaj Party/meta/color}}" | | |||
| bgcolor="{{Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color}}" | | |||
| bgcolor="{{Samajwadi Party/meta/color}}" | | |||
| bgcolor=gray | | |||
|- | |||
! width="90" class="wikitable" | ] | |||
! width="90" class="wikitable" | ] | |||
! width="70" class="wikitable" | ] + ] | |||
! width="70" class="wikitable" | ] | |||
|- | |||
| colspan="3" | '''Polls Average''' | |||
| 83 | |||
| '''163''' | |||
| 151 | |||
| 7 | |||
|- | |||
| 30 Jan 2017 | |||
| <ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.abplive.in/india-news/abp-news-opinion-poll-on-uttar-pradesh-elections-congress-sp-alliance-likely-to-form-govt-akhilesh-to-be-ups-cm-choice-486425|title=ABP न्यूज ओपिनियन पोल:SP-Congress set to form Govt in UP, Akhilesh top CM choice: ABP News-CSDS survey | |||
SP-Congress set to form Govt in UP, Akhilesh top CM choice: ABP News-CSDS survey|date= 30 January 2017|publisher=]|accessdate=30 January 2017}}</ref> | |||
| ]-Lokniti-CSDS | |||
| 76-86 (81) | |||
| 118-128 (123) | |||
| '''187-197 (192)''' | |||
| | |||
|- | |||
| 30 Jan 2017 | |||
| <ref>{{cite news|url=http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/assembly-elections/uttar-pradesh/news/bjp-will-win-202-seats-in-uttar-pradesh-assembly-election-predicts-timesnow-vmr-survey/articleshow/56877189.cms?|title=BJP will win 202 seats in Uttar Pradesh assembly election, predicts Times Now-VMR survey}}</ref> | |||
| Times Now-VMR | |||
|47 | |||
|'''202''' | |||
| 147 | |||
|7 | |||
|- | |||
| 29 Jan 2017 | |||
| <ref>{{cite news|url=https://twitter.com/manakgupta/status/825709444860293121|title=News24PEACSpoll|date= 29 January 2017|publisher=]|accessdate=29 January 2017}}</ref> | |||
| ] | |||
| 76 | |||
| 120 | |||
| '''(191)''' | |||
| | |||
|- | |||
|27 Jan 2017 | |||
|<ref>{{Cite news|url=http://tnsp.webnode.com/up-election-2017/|title=Opinion poll predicts hung houses in UP|access-date=2017-01-27}}</ref> | |||
|TNSPIMT | |||
|23 | |||
|177 | |||
|''' 201''' | |||
| | |||
|- | |||
|Jan 2017 | |||
|<ref>{{Cite news|url=http://indianexpress.com/elections/opinion-poll-predicts-hung-houses-in-up-punjab-goa-bjp-win-in-uttarakhand-4493226/|title=Opinion poll predicts hung houses in UP, Punjab, Goa; BJP win in Uttarakhand|access-date=2017-01-26}}</ref> | |||
|The WEEK-Hansa Research | |||
|20-24 (22) | |||
|'''192-196 (194)''' | |||
|178-182 (180) | |||
|5-9 (7) | |||
|- | |||
|Jan 2017 | |||
|<ref>{{Cite news|url=http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/india-today-axis-poll-uttar-pradesh-demonetisation-modi/1/849637.html|title=Modis BJP weathers demonetisation storm, set to win Uttar Pradesh: Key takeaways from India Today-Axis Opinion Poll|access-date=2017-01-05}}</ref> | |||
|]-Axis | |||
|119-138 (121) | |||
|'''171-184 (211)''' | |||
|97-104 (101) | |||
|7-11 (9) | |||
|- | |||
| Dec 2016 | |||
| <ref>{{cite news|url=http://abpnews.abplive.in/india-news/abp-news-up-opinion-poll-who-will-win-up-531117|title=ABP न्यूज ओपिनियन पोल: अखिलेश-मुलायम के बीच होती रही 'दंगल' तो बीजेपी चुनाव में करेगी सबको चित!|date=3 January 2017|publisher=]|accessdate=4 January 2017}}</ref> | |||
| ]-Lokniti-CSDS | |||
| 93-103 (98) | |||
| 129-139 (134) | |||
| '''154-170 (162)''' | |||
| 9 | |||
|- | |||
| Oct 2016 | |||
| <ref>{{cite news|url=http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/india-today-axis-opinion-poll-uttar-pradesh-elections-mayawati-akhilesh/1/785429.html|title=India Today-Axis Opinion Poll for Uttar Pradesh: BJP dream run to continue, but a hung Assembly likely | |||
|date=12 October 2016|publisher=]|accessdate=23 December 2016}}</ref> | |||
| ]-Axis | |||
| 115-124 (118) | |||
| '''170-183 (175)''' | |||
| 102-115 (107) | |||
| 2-6 (3) | |||
|- | |||
| Aug 2016 | |||
| <ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.indiatvnews.com/politics/national-india-tv-cvoter-survey-bjp-sp-neck-and-neck-bsp-third-in-up-assembly-poll-stakes-346408|title=India TV-CVoter survey: BJP, SP neck and neck, BSP third in UP assembly poll stakes | |||
|date=14 September 2016|publisher=]|accessdate=23 December 2016}}</ref> | |||
| ]-CVoter | |||
| 95-111 (103) | |||
| 134-150 (142) | |||
| '''138-162 (150)''' | |||
| 4-12 (8) | |||
|- | |||
| Jul-Aug 2016 | |||
| <ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.abplive.in/india-news/bjp-chasing-sp-in-up-bsp-runners-up-congress-a-distant-straggler-402955|title=BJP chasing SP in UP, BSP runners up, Congress a distant straggler | |||
|date=22 August 2016|publisher=]|accessdate=23 December 2016}}</ref> | |||
| ]-Lokniti | |||
| 103-113 (108) | |||
| 124-134 (129) | |||
| '''149-165 (157)''' | |||
| 6-12 (9) | |||
|- | |||
| March 2016 | |||
| <ref>{{cite news|title=ABP News Opinion Poll: BSP to win 185 seats if UP polls are held now|url=http://www.abplive.in/india-news/abp-news-opinion-poll-bsp-to-win-185-seats-if-up-polls-are-held-now-306920|accessdate=4 January 2017|work=ABP Live|date=16 March 2016}}</ref> | |||
|] Opinion Poll | |||
|'''185''' | |||
|120 | |||
|93 | |||
|5 | |||
|} | |||
==Result== | ==Result== |
Revision as of 23:35, 13 February 2017
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All 403 seats of Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly 202 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 17th Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election will be held from February 11 to March 8, 2017 in 7 phases. In the previous election in 2012, the Samajwadi Party won a majority and formed government in the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav.
Background
Electoral process changes
In January 2016, the Election Commission of India published updated electoral rolls in all 403 assembly segments. In July 2016, Election Commission decided to increase the number of polling booths in Uttar Pradesh for the 2017 Assembly elections. New polling centres will be planned in the constituencies having more than 1,500 registered voters as well as polling booths in six constituencies of Muzaffarnagar, Budhana, Purkazi, Khatoli, Charthawal and Midanpur to be raised from 1,769 to 1,819 booths. Voter assistance booths would be set up and photo slip of voters in a new design would be sent to them. First time, the Form-2B would contain the photograph of the candidates and their nationality.
Voter-verified paper audit trail (VVPAT) machines will be used along with EVM in 60 assembly constituencies covering 14 districts including Varanasi, Ghaziabad and Bareilly constituency.
Assembly constituencies of Uttar Pradesh having VVPAT facility with EVMs | |||
---|---|---|---|
Lucknow West | Lucknow North | Lucknow East | Agra Cantonment |
Agra South | Aligarh | Bareilly | Govind Nagar |
Arya Nagar | Ghaziabad | Meerut | Moradabad |
Saharanpur Nagar | Allahabad North | Allahabad South | Ayodhya |
Gorakhpur Urban | Jhansi Nagar | Varanasi North | Varanasi Cantonment |
As per the special summary revision of electoral rolls, there are a total of 14.05 crore voters in Uttar Pradesh as of January 2015.
S.No | Group of voters | Voters population |
---|---|---|
1 | Male | 7.7 crore |
2 | Female | 6.3 crore |
3 | Third Gender | 6,983 |
Total Voters | 14.05 crore |
Caste and religion data
As per 2011 census, Dalits constitute 21.1% of Uttar Pradesh population. Mallah community is divided in 27 sub-castes. Other Backward Classes (OBCs) constitute 40% of U.P population. Yadavs are biggest caste among OBCs. There are 200-odd non-Yadav OBCs in U.P. In Uttar Pradesh, Muslims are divided into 68 castes and sub-castes, 35 of them are OBCs. Forward castes constitute around 19% of Uttar Pradesh population, in which Brahmins are 10% and Thakurs are 7.6%. For accurate caste population data in India, Government of India has not publicly released Socio Economic and Caste Census 2011 caste population data for every single non-SC/ST castes (General castes, OBC/EBCs) in India.
Castes of Uttar Pradesh | ||
---|---|---|
Caste | Population (%) | Notes |
OBC | 40% | Yadavs -8% Lodhi -7% Jats -1.7% Gurjar -1.3% KUSHWAHA(MAURYA, SHAKYA, KOERI, KACHHI, SAINI) -4% Kurmi - 3% Other OBCs(including Sunars, other Hindu OBCs) -16% |
Dalits(SCs) | 21.1% | Jatavs Dalits -11% Non-Jatav Dalits(includes Pasis, Mallah and Valmikis) -9% |
Tribals (STs) | 0.1% | |
Forward caste | 22% | Brahmins -10% Thakur - 8% Vaishya - 2% Khatri,Kayastha,Tyagi and Bhumihar -2% |
Muslims | 19.1% | |
Christians | 0.18% |
Election issues
In recent years people of Uttar Pradesh and rest of India had given more importance to economic and social development along with development of the people of their caste. Earlier the voters vote to the party which gives benefits to their caste. Percentage of Youths with literacy has increased cast their votes with hopes of jobs,security,good education and good life.Voting in favour of BJP in 2014 elections alternative to Congress due to the promises of development and hopes of development have increased as people understand it importance .Political parties talks too much about development in these UP elections.As the state has more caste with much having reservation, Political parties also lure leader of different caste in their favour. Other most and as in every election caste and religion will play the key reasons for voters. However, the Supreme Court ruled that prohibited use of religion, caste or language to solicit votes and forbade candidates from communal politics.
Schedule
Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh will be held between 11 February to 8 March 2017. The term of the present government will end on 27 May 2017.
On 4 January 2017, The Election Commission of India announced the election schedule to the Legislative Assembly of Uttar Pradesh along with the other four state (Goa, Manipur, Punjab and Uttarakhand) which are due for an election. The entire election is scheduled into 7 phases.
Phase | Name of District | No. of Assembly Constituencies |
---|---|---|
Phase-1 (11 February 2017) | Shamli | 3 |
Muzaffarnagar | 6 | |
Baghpat | 3 | |
Meerut | 7 | |
Ghaziabad | 5 | |
Gautam Buddha Nagar | 3 | |
Hapur | 3 | |
Bulandshahar | 7 | |
Aligarh | 7 | |
Mathura | 5 | |
Hathras | 3 | |
Agra | 9 | |
Firozabad | 5 | |
Etha | 4 | |
Kasganj | 3 | |
Phase-2 (15 February 2017) | Saharanpur | 7 |
Bijnor | 8 | |
Moradabad | 6 | |
Sambhal | 4 | |
Rampur | 5 | |
Bareilly | 9 | |
Amroha | 4 | |
Pilibhit | 4 | |
Kheri | 8 | |
Shahjahanpur | 6 | |
Badaun | 6 | |
Phase-3 (19 February 2017) | Farrukhabad | 4 |
Hardoi | 8 | |
Kannauj | 3 | |
Mainpuri | 4 | |
Etawah | 3 | |
Auraiya | 3 | |
Kanpur Dehat | 4 | |
Kanpur Nagar | 10 | |
Unnao | 6 | |
Lucknow | 9 | |
Barabanki | 6 | |
Sitapur | 9 | |
Phase-4 (23 February 2017) | Pratapgarh | 7 |
Kaushambi | 3 | |
Allahabad | 12 | |
Jalaun | 3 | |
Jhansi | 4 | |
Lalitpur | 2 | |
Mahoba | 2 | |
Hamirpur | 2 | |
Banda | 4 | |
Chitrakoot | 2 | |
Fatehpur | 6 | |
Rae Bareli | 6 | |
Phase-5 (27 February 2017) | Balrampur | 4 |
Gonda | 7 | |
Faizabad | 5 | |
Ambedkar Nagar | 5 | |
Bahraich | 7 | |
Shrawasti | 2 | |
Siddharthnagar | 5 | |
Basti | 5 | |
Sant Kabir Nagar | 3 | |
Amethi | 4 | |
Sultanpur | 5 | |
Phase-6 (4 March 2017) | Maharajganj | 5 |
Kushi Nagar | 7 | |
Gorakhpur | 9 | |
Deoria | 7 | |
Azamgarh | 10 | |
Mau | 4 | |
Ballia | 7 | |
Phase-7 (8 March 2017) | Ghazipur | 7 |
Varanasi | 8 | |
Chandauli | 5 | |
Mirzapur | 4 | |
Bhadohi | 3 | |
Sonbhadra | 4 | |
Jaunpur | 9 |
Opinion polls
Result
Result will be declared on 11 March 2017.
Party | Seats contested | Seats won | Seat change | Vote share | Swing | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Samajwadi Party | 298 | 0 | ||||
Indian National Congress | 105 | 0 | ||||
Bahujan Samaj Party | 44Cite error: A <ref> tag is missing the closing </ref> (see the help page).</ref></ref>
|
0 | ||||
Bharatiya Janata Party | 383 | 0 | ||||
AIMIM | 52 | 0 | ||||
Apna dal S | 12 | 0 | ||||
Rashtriya Lok Dal | 63 | 0 | ||||
Bharatiya Samaj Party | 8 | 0 | ||||
Peace Party of India | ||||||
Nationalist Congress Party | ||||||
Shiv Sena | ||||||
Independents | ||||||
Total | - | 0 | - | |||
Turnout: | ||||||
Source: Election Commission of India |
See also
References
- "2017 assembly polls: Election Commission to begin election process April next". Indianexpress.com. Retrieved 6 July 2016.
- "Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections 2017: Election Commission to increase polling booths - The Hindu". Thehindu.com. Retrieved 6 July 2016.
- "Election Commission 2017 उत्तर प्रदेश चुनाव में बढ़ाएगी वोटिंग सेंटर्स - Jansatta". Jansatta.com. Retrieved 6 July 2016.
- "ECI TO INSTALL VVPAT IN 60 ASSEMBLY SEATS IN UP POLLS".
- "738 booths of Cantonment, City North to have Voter verified paper audit trai machines".
- "Now, verify your vote using an 'audit machine' - Times of India".
- "AnnexureVI VVPAT Page 24" (PDF).
- "Machines to rule out fraud, confusion at upcoming UP polls".
- "20 Uttar Pradesh assembly constituencies to witness ATM-like receipt after casting vote".
- "Uttar Pradesh now has 14 cr voters".
- Shailvee Sharda. "Job better than aid, say UP dalits - Times of India". The Times of India. Retrieved 6 July 2016.
- "UP polls: Why is BJP hesitating in announcing its CM candidate?". Indiatvnews.com. Retrieved 6 July 2016.
- "Half of India's dalit population lives in 4 states - Times of India".
- "UP has the highest OBC population in all Indian states".
- "Why smaller castes could hold the key to power in 2017 UP Assembly polls".
- "Survey puts OBC population at 40 pc".
- "OBC population in UP stands at 7 crore".
- http://navbharattimes.indiatimes.com/assembly-elections/uttar-pradesh/political-parties-aim-the-right-caste-mix-in-uttar-pradesh-to-win-election/articleshow/56749019.cms
- http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/assembly-elections/uttar-pradesh/news/so-whats-the-right-caste-mix-in-up/articleshow/56746345.cms
- "Uttar Pradesh polls: BSP, SP and BJP leaving no stone unturned to come up trumps".
- "The angry Thakurs of Uttar Pradesh".
- "BJP seeks new Thakur leader to replace Rajnath Singh in UP".
- "'Centre not releasing caste census data because it doesn't want to face Mandal II'". Thehindubusinessline.com. Retrieved 6 July 2016.
- "Centre releases census data on religion, hides caste figures". Dnaindia.com. Retrieved 6 July 2016.
- "Before releasing caste numbers, the government needs to account for discrepancies in data". Scroll.in. Retrieved 6 July 2016.
- "Why Is Modi Govt. Hiding Socio-Economic Caste Census 2011 Data?". Youthkiawaaz.com. Retrieved 6 July 2016.
- "Caste-based Census data should be made public, demand Bihar CM Nitish Kumar - The Hindu". Thehindu.com. Retrieved 6 July 2016.
- "How BJP is changing the caste arithmetic in Uttar Pradesh - Latest News & Updates at Daily News & Analysis". 1 May 2014.
- "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 8 March 2016. Retrieved 2016-02-15.
{{cite web}}
: Unknown parameter|deadurl=
ignored (|url-status=
suggested) (help)CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link) - "The Scramble For Dalit Votes In Uttar Pradesh".
- "UP govt declares holiday on Maharana Pratap Jayanti to 'woo' Thakur voters".
- "Brahmins population in India".
- Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2017
- gandhi, Parsh (30 March 2016). "How The Law And Order Situation In U.P. Could Cost The Samajwadi Party During Elections". Youth Ki Awaaz. Retrieved 19 May 2016.
- "UP govt needs to look into law and order". State Times. 4 June 2016. Retrieved 4 June 2016.
- "Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election Issues 2017". Infoelections.
- http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2017/jan/02/use-of-religion-caste-for-seeking-votes-impermissible-supreme-court-1555302.html
- "Announcement: Schedule for the General Elections to the Legislative Assemblies of Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh" (PDF). Election Commission of India. 4 January 2017. Retrieved 4 January 2017.
- https://www.upelectionsresults2017.in/uttar-pradesh-elections-2017-dates-polling-schedule-updates-notifications/
External links
Elections in Uttar Pradesh | |||||
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General elections | |||||
Legislative Assembly | |||||
Local elections |
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See also: Elections in India |
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