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Greenhouse gas emissions

Libya is the highest carbon emitter of countries in Africa with an estimated per person annual rate of 8.5 tons of CO2 . On the global scale, however, Libya represents a much smaller percentage of carbon emissions. In 2022, Libya emitted 44.682 Mt of CO2, equating to only 0.1% of global CO2 emissions. In terms of methane, Libya is considered one of the highest global polluters in the context of its barrel-to-flare ratio.

The burning of fossil fuels is the biggest source of these emissions for Libya, specifically oil. The sectors of Libya’s economy that produce the largest greenhouse gas emissions are the electricity sector, followed by the transportation sector.  In 2021, Libya was the seventh-largest producer of crude oil out of the OPEC countries. Further, 3% of the world’s oil reserves and 39% of Africa’s oil reserves are in Libya. The economy of Libya, by way of oil production, is currently dependent on activities that emit greenhouse gasses.

Impacts on the natural environment

Temperature and weather changes

The increase in regional temperatures in tandem with other anthropocentric factors of urbanization, migration, and resource exploitation is reducing the availability of arable land and contributing to a disproportionate increase in desert ecosystems over other vegetation and ecosystems .

Water resources

Libya is incredibly water scarce and vulnerable to high water insecurity, largely due to its lack of rivers and other bodies of freshwater (cite). Globally, Libya is the fourth-most water stressed nation (cite). The largest source of water for the country is from groundwater and fossil water sources, at 79% (cite). The agricultural sector receives 83.1% of all freshwater resources, largely for the purposes of livestock and irrigation (cite). Libya has a high rate of water consumption, especially in agriculture, and this alongside the limited availability of water and the frequency of droughts in Libya, makes water scarcity a prevalent issue.

Libya is supplied by groundwater aquifers, including some that reside along its coastline on the Mediterranean Sea. However, due to sea level rise and flooding events, these freshwater sources have begun to experience saltwater intrusion and the quality of water in the aquifers has begun to decrease. Furthermore, pollution from fertilizers and sewage mismanagement has tainted the quality of water in some aquifers (cite).    

The Man-Made River Project (cite) is one such aquifer example and provides Libya with 60% of its water resources (cite). It is the largest underground irrigation project in the world. However, the project’s construction allows it to tap into and exploit non-renewable aquifers, which cannot be recharged by precipitation events (cite). Therefore, the long-term stability of this project as a water resource is variable since it depends upon a decreasing reserve.

Impacts on People

Impacts on Migration

Both internal migration and interregional migration occur in Libya. Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for migrant populations, influencing both internal displacement and the dynamics of migration to and through the country. As of 2023, there is a significant presence of approximately 704,369 migrants from various nations. Most migrants entering Libya are coming from Sub-Saharan and north Africa. Drivers of migration to Libya include the search for economic opportunities, environmental degradation in their countries of origin, and conflict or violence.

Migrant populations within Libya are particularly vulnerable to climatic events and their aftermath, or climatic shocks. Those most affected include individuals fleeing conflict and war, who may find themselves facing additional challenges due to environmental instability. Many migrants also use Libya as a transit point to Europe, with a notable increase in the number of migrants attempting to cross to Italy and Malta in 2023.

The distribution of migrants within Libya is shaped by both economic and climatic factors. Arid desert climates deter populations from settling in southern Libya, prompting many to seek opportunities in urban and coastal areas, which exacerbates population concentration in cities and increases the threat of sea-level rise on migrant livelihood.

Internal migration and displacement are also prevalent due to slow-onset climate processes. Rising temperatures, drought, flooding, and water salinization have contributed to internal displacement, particularly when combined with mismanaged water resources. The degradation of infrastructure and reduced agricultural capabilities have led to increased urbanization and the displacement of rural populations.

Society and Culture

Activism

Prior to 2011 there were governmental restrictions on civic participation in politics and activism and existing NGOs were closely supervised to prevent such participation. In 2011, a new Libyan constitution and a change in government, allowed for activism and freedom of expression with more limits on government oversight. These social changes catalyzed the formation of over 6,000 civil society organizations addressing a wide range of humanitarian and environmental issues. However, in March of 2023, under the administration of Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, NGO's formed after 2011 began having their licenses stripped due to fear of impacts on an upcoming election. The social mobility created by NGOs threatens the conservative Libyan government and society. Delegitimizing NGOs in Libya threatens civil engagement and activism surrounding climate change giving rise to local and international distress over the crackdown.

The effects of natural disasters have also driven some forms of recent protest. Following catastrophic flooding in Derna, Libya in September of 2023, protestors took to the streets to call for accountability from the government for mismanaged infrastructure and climate mis-governance, which led to and exacerbated the flooding. Derna, a culturally rich city, sometimes referred to as “the city of poets”, also saw protest and activism through poetry written during and after the floods. The presence of social media has inspired social mobility surrounding climate activism and has given a platform for individuals to express ideas about political and social issues.

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References

1. ^ UNDP; UNICEF; IOM UN Migration; COP 27 (October 2022). "UN Climate Change Fact Sheet: Libya" (PDF).{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
2. ^ "Libya - Countries & Regions". IEA. Retrieved 2024-11-03.
3. "Accelerating Climate Action for Libya". UNDP. Retrieved 2024-11-03.
4. ^ U.S. Energy Information Administration (May 9, 2022). "Libya Executive Summary".
5. ^ "Environment and Climate Change". UNDP. Retrieved 2024-11-03.
6. ^ Yousef, Lubna; Todman, Will (2023-05-02). "Libya's Civil Society Crackdown Exacerbates Its Climate Woes". {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
7. ^ Abdulrahim, Raja (2023-09-24). "After Floods, Protest and Grief in Libya's 'City of Poets'". The New York Times: A4 – A4.
8. Morris, Laura (2014-11-22). "Contextualizing the power of social media: Technology, communication and the Libya Crisis". First Monday. doi:10.5210/fm.v19i12.5318. ISSN 1396-0466.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: unflagged free DOI (link)