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2023 DZ₂

Stacked image of 2023 DZ2 from 52 60-second photos taken remotely on March 21, 2023, at Abbey Ridge Observatory (Canada).
Discovery
Discovered by	EURONEAR
Discovery site	Roque de los Muchachos Observatory
Discovery date	27 February 2023
Designations
MPC designation	2023 DZ2
Minor planet category	NEO Apollo
Orbital characteristics
Epoch 25 February 2023 (JD 2460000.5)
Uncertainty parameter 5
Observation arc	68 days
Earliest precovery date	14 January 2023
Aphelion	3.317±0.0002 AU
Perihelion	0.99388 AU
Semi-major axis	2.155±0.0001 AU
Eccentricity	0.5389±0.00003
Orbital period (sidereal)	3.165±0.0003 yr (1,156±0.1 days)
Mean anomaly	348.67°±0.001°
Mean motion	0° 18 38.16 / day
Inclination	0.08143°
Longitude of ascending node	187.91°±0.0005°
Time of perihelion	2023-Apr-04
Argument of perihelion	5.96°±0.0005°
Earth MOID	0.000048 AU (7.2 thousand km; 0.019 LD)
Physical characteristics
Dimensions	40–90 meters (CNEOS) ≈54 m (180 ft)
Synodic rotation period	0.105 hours (6.3 min)
Apparent magnitude	10 (at closest approach 2023)
Absolute magnitude (H)	24.2±0.4 mag

2023 DZ₂ is an asteroid roughly 70 meters in diameter, classified as a near-Earth object of the Apollo group, and originally a Virtual Impactor (VI). It was first observed on 27 February 2023, when it was 0.11 AU (16 million km) from Earth, with the Isaac Newton Telescope by Dr. Ovidiu Vaduvescu, Freya Barwell, and Kiran Jhass (ING and University of Sheffield student support astronomers) within the EURONEAR project. It will pass 174,639 ± 27 km (108,516 ± 17 mi) of Earth on March 25, 2023. This is a little less than half the distance to the Moon. This will be the largest asteroid to approach this close since 2019 OK. On March 21, 2023 with a 66-day observation arc, it was removed from the Sentry Risk Table.

The 2023 approach will be visible to amateur astronomers with modest telescopes and telescopes equipped with an image sensor. From 20–24 March 2023 it will be visible in the constellation of Cancer. At about 17:20 UT on the 25th the asteroid will brighten to about apparent magnitude 10 while over Southeast Asia, and may be visible in 10×50 binoculars. But for many locations the asteroid will not get brighter than magnitude 12 before setting and will be out of the reach of binoculars.

Identification

The discovery was carried out within the (Data-parallel detection of Solar System objects and space debris) ParaSOL project that is sponsored by UEFISCDI in Romania and led by Dr. Marcel Popescu. The new NEA was identified by Prof. Costin Boldea and by the STU ParaSOL software pipeline developed by the amateur astronomer Malin Stanescu. Other members of the EURONEAR collaboration who participated in the data analysis were Dr. Marian Predatu, and the amateur astronomers Lucian Curelaru and Daniel Bertesteanu.

Description

2023 DZ₂ is approximately 40–90 meters (130–300 feet) in diameter. With an estimated rotation period of about 6 minutes and a lightcurve amplitude of 0.57 magnitudes, the object is suspected of being elongated in shape.

Before the Earth approach, it follows a rather eccentric (0.54), low-inclination (0.08°) orbit of 3.16 years duration, ranging between 0.99 and 3.32 AU from the Sun. It passes Earth on 25 March 2023 which reduces the orbital period to 1,098.4 days (3.007 yr). It then comes to perihelion (closest approach to the Sun) on 4 April 2023.

Ruled-out virtual impactors

On 18 March 2023 when the asteroid had an observation arc of 63 days, virtual clones of the asteroid that fit the uncertainty region in the known trajectory showed a 1-in-430 chance that the asteroid could impact Earth on 27 March 2026. Three days later with a 66-day observation arc it was removed from the Sentry Risk Table. It is now known that the nominal approach (line of variation) has the asteroid 0.030 AU (4.5 million km) ± 1 million km from Earth at the time of the potential impact on 27 March 2026. The asteroid will safely approach Earth around 3 April 2026, a week after the potential impact scenario. It was estimated that an impact would produce an upper atmosphere air burst equivalent to 4.5 Mt TNT (19 PJ), roughly equal to 214 of the Fat Man warhead dropped on Nagasaki.

With an observation arc of 63 days it peaked at a Palermo scale rating of –1.17 with the odds of impact then being about 15 times less than the background hazard level.

The early May 2029 approach is not an impact threat as the orbits only intersect in late March.

Notes

1. If 2023 DZ2 had been arriving approximately 19 hours later it would have impacted into Earth as that is where the two orbits intersect.
2. The asteroid is brightest ~2 hours before closest approach due to the opposition effect that causes a brightening of the object.
3. With a 64-day observation arc the risk of impact dropped significantly as the 3-sigma uncertainty region became smaller than the nominal approach distance. A virtual impactor is the result of a line of variations (ellipse) that is narrow and long and stretches along the asteroids known orbit. The Earth distance at the time of the virtual impactor dropped from 5 ± 9 million km to 5 ± 4 million km.

References

1. ^ "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2023 DZ2)" (2023-03-22 last obs.). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Archived from the original on 16 March 2023. Retrieved 24 March 2023.
2. ^ "MPEC 2023-F12 : 2023 DZ2". Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 16 March 2023.
3. ^ "Perihelion (post Earth encounter) on 4 April 2023" (Perihelion occurs when rdot flips from negative to positive). JPL Horizons. Retrieved 17 March 2023.
4. ^ "CNEOS Close Approaches". NASA JPL CNEOS. Archived from the original on 17 March 2023.
5. ^ "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DZ2 (64.6 day arc with 142 obs)". NASA JPL CNEOS.
6. ^ Dr. Lance A. M. Benner (22 March 2023). "Goldstone Radar Observations Planning: 2023 DZ2". NASA/JPL Asteroid Radar Research. Retrieved 22 March 2023.
7. ^ "JPL Horizons Ephemeris for March 2023". JPL Horizons. Retrieved 17 March 2023. (magnitude @ CA)
8. ^ "Sentry (Removed Objects)". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 22 March 2023.
9. "JPL Horizons solution for time of closest approach on 25 March 2023" (Closest approach occurs when deldot flips from negative to positive). JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 23 March 2023. Retrieved 24 March 2023.
10. "JPL Horizons: 2023 DZ2 geocentric distance and uncertainty on 25 March 2023". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 18 March 2023. Retrieved 24 March 2023.
11. "Horizons Batch showing epoch 2023-Apr-25". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 21 March 2023. Retrieved 21 March 2023.
12. ^ "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DZ2 (62.9 day arc with 94 obs)". NASA JPL CNEOS.
13. "JPL Horizons: 2023 DZ2 geocentric distance and uncertainty on 27 March 2026". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 17 March 2023. Retrieved 24 March 2023.
14. "ESA: 2023DZ2 Close Approaches". European Space Agency near-earth objects coordination centre. Archived from the original on 17 March 2023.
15. ^ "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DW (1.98 day arc)". NASA JPL CNEOS.
16. "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DZ2 (17.1 day arc with 56 obs)". NASA JPL CNEOS.
17. "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DZ2 (63.9 day arc with 122 obs)". NASA JPL CNEOS.

External links

• 2023 DZ2 at NeoDyS-2, Near Earth Objects—Dynamic Site
  • Ephemerides · Observation prediction · Orbital info · MOID · Proper elements · Observational info · Close approaches · Physical info · Orbit animation
• 2023 DZ2 at ESA–space situational awareness
  • Ephemerides · Observations · Orbit · Physical properties · Summary
• 2023 DZ2 at the JPL Small-Body Database
  • Close approach · Discovery · Ephemeris · Orbit viewer · Orbit parameters · Physical parameters

• Apollo asteroids
• Minor planet object articles (unnumbered)
• Near-Earth objects in 2023
• Near-Earth objects removed from the Sentry Risk Table
• Astronomical objects discovered in 2023
• Astronomical discoveries by institution