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Elections to to the 54th Parliament of New South Wales will be held on Saturday, 24 March 2007. The entire Legislative Assembly and half of the Legislative Council will be up for election.
The election will see the Australian Labor Party seek a fourth consecutive term in office, and will be the first election since both major parties changed leaders in 2005. Morris Iemma, a former union official, leads Labor while Peter Debnam, a former businessman and naval officer, leads the Liberal-National Coalition.
Economic management and infrastructure—in particular roads and water—have been identified as the key issues in the campaign. Labor goes to the polls with a commanding lead in terms of seats and poll numbers, but has been hampered by a string of scandals and the state's lacklustre economic performance. Liberal leader Peter Debnam is widely seen as not yet having made any real impact with voters.
Campaign
The government is campaigning on the basis of its plan to secure Sydney's dwindling water supply and attacking the opposition over its plans to cut 20,000 public service jobs and hand industrial relations powers to the Australian Government. The opposition is campaigning on economic management and attacking the government over recent scandals and on road and water infrastructure. Both sides have pledged to increase police numbers.
To a large extent, the campaign has been overshadowed by scandals involving a number of Labor MPs. Aboriginal Affairs minister Milton Orkopoulos was charged with over 30 drug and child sex offences in November 2006 and may appear in court during the election campaign. Macquarie Fields MP Steven Chaytor was forced to resign after being convicted of assaulting his girlfriend in January 2007. In October 2006, Police minister Carl Scully was forced to quit after repeatedly misleading parliament. The Sydney Morning Herald greeted Chaytor's conviction with the headline "Labor: the guilty party", an echo of the Liberal campaign slogan used against the scandal-plagued Labor government in Victoria in 1992.
Peter Debnam, opposition leader, was criticised from both sides of politics for using Australia Day to claim that multiculturalism is to blame for recent violent incidents such as the recent clash between 150 Croatians and Serbians at the 2007 Australian Open Tennis tournament in Melbourne, as well as the 2005 Cronulla riots in Sydney.
Coalition campaign
The Coalition campaign began in November 2006 in the wake of a series of scandals involving government ministers, notably Carl Scully and Milton Orkopoulos. Opposition Leader Peter Debnam used print, television and internet media to address voters with the message that "when something is rotten to the core, there is no choice but to get rid of it." The campaign avoided mentioning the scandals specifically, but suggested that the government was distracted from the economic issues and maintaining the state's infrastructure.
On 8 January 2007, Debnam launched "Get NSW back in front", a campaign designed to remind voters of the state's declining economic performance relative to the other states. The Sydney Morning Herald quipped that "with the Coalition trailing in the polls, it may equally refer to the Opposition Leader's prospects ... The tour began inauspiciously."
The "Back in front" tour was marred by allegations that Labor and trade union protesters sent to shadow the campaign jostled the Opposition Leader's wife. On the same day that Labor MP Stephen Chaytor was convicted of assaulting his ex-girlfriend, Debnam told the premier "Mr Iemma, make sure your union thugs stay away from my wife and from my team."
Labor campaign
The government stepped up its advertising expenditure in the months before the official campaign begins. The November 2006 New South Wales State Plan was heavily promoted. "Every day on television now the citizens of NSW can watch their dollars being wasted on advertisements touting the State Plan - advertisements which are neither helpful nor informative, but mere propaganda," the Sydney Morning Herald wrote, slamming what it called "this blatant use of taxpayers' money to spread a message which advantages only the Labor Party."
Further controversy surrounded changes to arrangements for the opening of the new Lane Cove Tunnel, the long-awaited 'missing link' in the city's orbital motorway. The toll road will open one month from election day, and trips until that date will be toll-free. Planned road changes, designed to funnel traffic into the tunnel, will be delayed until well after the election—at an additional cost to taxpayers of $25 million.
The Herald described the payment as a "bribe" and a "political rort". According to a Herald editorial, "The use of public funds to compensate Connector Motorways for delays to road changes around the tunnel is ... as cynical a piece of political jobbery as Sydney has seen in many a long year."
Labor launched a website, debnamrecord.com, to highlight negative aspects of the Opposition Leader and his record. The site attacks plans to cut 20,000 workers from the state bureaucracy and to refer the state's recently diminished industrial relations powers to the federal government. The site claims that the Coalition has made $26 billion in unfunded promises and that Debnam himself has "a record of business failures." The site also reminds visitors that Debnam represents Vaucluse, an electorate covering some of Sydney's richest suburbs.
Electoral System
The New South Wales Legislative Assembly consists of 93 members, elected in proportional representation single-member electorates by optional preferential Instant-runoff voting.
The New South Wales Legislative Council consists of 42 members, elected at large by optional preferential single transferable voting, with 21 elected at each election to serve two Legislative Assembly terms.
Terms are fixed at four years, with elections being held in late March.
Opinion Polls
Preferred premier
| File:Newspoll logo2.JPG | Preferred premier ratings | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| File:Morris Iemma.jpg | Iemma | File:Peter Debnam.jpg | Debnam | ||||||
| Nov - Dec 2006 | 45% | 23% | |||||||
| Sep - Oct 2006 | 45% | 21% | |||||||
| Jul - Aug 2006 | 48% | 20% | |||||||
| May - Jun 2006 | 42% | 22% | |||||||
| Mar - Apr 2006 | 42% | 23% | |||||||
| Jan - Feb 2006 | 42% | 22% | |||||||
| Nov - Dec 2005 | 40% | 18% | |||||||
| Sep - Oct 2005 | 42% | 17% | |||||||
| Source: Newspoll/The Australian | |||||||||
Voting intention
The tables below list voting intentions for the 2007 election. Conducted by Roy Morgan Research and Newspoll/The Australian, the surveys asked approximately 1000 voters each month: "If a State election were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?" The table also includes the two-party preferred vote.
| File:Newspoll logo2.JPG | New South Wales state voting intention | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political parties | Two-party preferred | ||||||||
| Australian Labor Party | Liberal Party of Australia | National Party of Australia | NSW Greens | Others/Inds | Australian Labor Party | Liberal/National Coalition | |||
| 2003 Election | 42.7% | 24.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 14.7% | 56.2% | 43.8% | ||
| November/December 2006 | 39% | 32% | 5% | 7% | 17% | 53% | 47% | ||
| September/October 2006 | 41% | 32% | 5% | 7% | 15% | 54% | 46% | ||
| July/August 2006 | 41% | 31% | 5% | 6% | 17% | 55% | 45% | ||
| May/June 2006 | 38% | 33% | 6% | 7% | 16% | 52% | 48% | ||
| March/April 2006 | 36% | 38% | 6% | 6% | 14% | 48% | 52% | ||
| January/February 2006 | 34% | 36% | 7% | 6% | 17% | 49% | 51% | ||
| November/December 2005 | 34% | 37% | 6% | 7% | 16% | 48% | 52% | ||
| September/October 2005 | 38% | 33% | 5% | 8% | 16% | 53% | 47% | ||
| Source: Newspoll/The Australian | |||||||||
| File:Roymorgan logo.JPG | New South Wales state voting intention | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political parties | Two-party preferred | ||||||||||
| Australian Labor Party | Liberal Party of Australia | National Party of Australia | Australian Democrats | Victorian Greens | One Nation Party | Family First Party | Christian Democratic Party | Others/Inds | Australian Labor Party | Liberal/National Coalition | |
| December 2006 | 50.5% | 31.5% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 0.5% | 1% | 1% | 5.5% | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| November 2006 | 45.5% | 34.5% | 3.5% | 1% | 6.5% | 1% | 1.5% | 1% | 5.5% | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| October 2006 | 43% | 35.5% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 5.5% | 0.5% | 1% | 1% | 7.5% | 53% | 47% |
| September 2006 | 48% | 32.5% | 2% | 1.5% | 6.5% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 5.5% | 59% | 41% |
| August 2006 | 49.5% | 30.5% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 6% | 0.5% | 2% | 0.5% | 6% | 60% | 40% |
| July 2006 | 42.5% | 37% | 4% | 1.5% | 6.5% | 1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 54% | 46% |
| June 2006 | 46% | 32.5% | 2% | 7% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 5% | 58% | 42% |
| May 2006 | 42.5% | 34% | 4.5% | 2% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 1.5% | 5.5% | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| April 2006 | 42.5% | 35% | 2.5% | 2% | 8.5% | 1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 6.5% | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| March 2006 | 43% | 36.5% | 3.5% | 1% | 8.5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4.5% | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| February 2006 | 39% | 36% | 5% | 1.5% | 7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2% | 6.5% | 52% | 48% |
| January 2006 | 43% | 32% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 8.5% | 1% | 2% | 1.5% | 6% | 56% | 44% |
| December 2005 | 43.5% | 32% | 4% | 0.5% | 10.5% | 1% | 1.5% | 1% | 6% | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| November 2005 | 43% | 33% | 4% | 1.5% | 7.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2% | 6% | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| October 2005 | 43.5% | 33.5% | 3% | 1.5% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 1.5% | 5% | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| September 2005 | 43.5% | 32% | 5% | 1.5% | 8% | 1% | 1.5% | ~ | 7.5% | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| Source: Roy Morgan Research | |||||||||||
Candidates
For a list of candidates, see Candidates of the New South Wales legislative election, 2007.Prospects
Legislative Assembly
The Legislative Assembly currently consists of:
- 55 members of the Australian Labor Party
- 19 members of the Liberal Party of Australia (originally 20)
- 12 members of The Nationals
- 7 independents (originally 6)
The Liberal Party lost one of its 20 seats to an independent at the Pittwater by-election in 2005. The seats for this election will follow the boundary redistribution conducted in 2005, which did not change the number of seats notionally held by each party.
A majority being 47 seats, the Labor Party must lose nine seats (a uniform swing of 8.7%) to lose its majority, and the Liberal-National coalition must gain 16 seats to gain a majority. If the Liberal-National coalition gains at least one seat from an Independent, a uniform swing of 11.6% will be sufficient. Otherwise, the necessary uniform swing will be 12.3%.
Key Seats
The following seats are notionally held by the Labor Party with a margin of less than 14%:
- Tweed - 4% - Held by Neville Newell.
- Monaro - 4.4% - Held by Steve Whan.
- Wollondilly - 4.6% - A new seat, created out of parts of the seats of Camden, Campbelltown and Southern Highlands.
- Penrith - 6.6% - Held by Karyn Paluzzano.
- Port Stephens - 7.2% - Held by John Bartlett.
- Kiama - 8.3% - Held by Matt Brown.
- Gosford - 8.6% - The Labor-held seat of Peats has been renamed as Gosford, while the Liberal-held seat of Gosford has been renamed as Terrigal. Labor's Marie Andrews holds the seat of Peats, while the current seat of Gosford is held by Liberal member Chris Hartcher.
- Camden - 8.7% - Held by Geoff Corrigan, the former Mayor of Camden, the seat was won off the Liberal Party at the 2003 election.
- Drummoyne - 8.7% - Held by Angela D'Amore.
- Menai - 8.9% - Held by Alison Megarrity.
- Miranda - 9.1% - Held by Barry Collier.
- The Entrance - 9.7% - Held by Grant McBride.
- Maitland - 10.3% - Held by John Price.
- Londonderry - 10.9% - Held by Allan Shearan.
- Lake Macquarie - 11.6% - Held by Jeff Hunter.
- Heathcote - 12.3% - Held by Paul McLeay.
- Wyong - 12.3% - Held by Paul Crittenden.
- Bathurst - 13.1% - Held by Gerard Martin.
- Charlestown - 13.3% - Held by Matthew Morris.
- Riverstone - 13.4% - Held by John Aquilina.
- Coogee - 13.6% - Held by Paul Pearce.
- Parramatta - 13.6% - Held by Tanya Gadiel.
The following seats are notionally held by the Liberal-National coalition with a margin of less than 5%:
- Terrigal - 0.6% - A new seat, it is currently named Gosford, which is held by Liberal MP Chris Hartcher.
- Murray-Darling - 1.4% - Currently held by Labor, this seat has become notionally National following the redistribution.
- South Coast - 1.6% - Held by Liberal Shelley Hancock.
- Lane Cove - 2.8% - Held by Liberal Anthony Roberts.
- Baulkham Hills - 4.0% - Held by Liberal Wayne Merton.
- Hornsby - 4.2% - Held by Liberal Judy Hopwood.
- Goulburn - 4.5% - Newly created in the recent redistribution, Goulburn covers parts of Southern Highlands (Liberal) and Burrinjuck (National). This could lead to a potential conflict for electoral coverage between the coalition partners, or a three-cornered contest, which has been a past problem in the overlapping federal electorate of Hume. It is considered notionally Liberal.
- Bega - 4.7% - Held by Andrew Constance.
The following Independent seats are also significant:
- Dubbo - This seat was won by Dawn Fardell at the 2004 Dubbo by-election, following the death of Independent MP Tony McGrane. Following the redistribution, the margin was cut from 5% to 0.3%, meaning that this seat will be a target of the Nationals in 2007.
- Manly
- Tamworth
- Pittwater
The following seats may see serious challenges by the Greens:
- Balmain - Notional 7.1% - Held by Sandra Nori, ALP. Before the 2005 redistribution, this seat was called Port Jackson.
- Marrickville - 5.6% since 2005 by-election.
By-elections
There have been five by-elections during the current term of the Legislative Assembly:
- Dubbo, 2004 - Held following the death of Independent MP Tony McGrane. Won by Independent candidate Dawn Fardell against the Nationals. No Labor candidate.
- Macquarie Fields, 2005 - Held following the retirement of Labor's Craig Knowles. Won by local councillor Steven Chaytor (Labor), against former whistleblower nurse Nola Fraser (Liberal).
- Maroubra, 2005 - Held following the retirement of Premier Bob Carr. No Liberal candidate contested the by-election, with the seat being retained by the ALP.
- Marrickville, 2005 - Held following the retirement of Deputy Premier Andrew Refshauge. The contest was between Labor's Education Minister Carmel Tebbutt and the Greens' Deputy Mayor Sam Byrne. Labor retained the seat with 55% of the two-party-preferred vote.
- Pittwater, 2005 - Held following the resignation of Liberal leader John Brogden. Won by independent Mayor Alex McTaggart, against Liberal candidate Paul Nicolaou.
Legislative Council
The New South Wales Legislative Council is not elected in one general election. Rather, half the house is elected at each general election. Those Members of the Legislative Council elected at the 1999 election, and those who have been elected to fill vacancies from members elected in 1999, will vacate their seats at the 2007 election.
At the 1999 election, 8 Labor MLCs were elected, along with 4 Liberals, 2 Nationals, and one each from the Greens, Christian Democratic Party (CDP), Australian Democrats, Unity, the Outdoor Recreation Party, One Nation and Reform the Legal System.
At the 2003 election, the following parties won seats:
- 10 Labor
- 5 Liberal
- 2 National
- 2 Greens
- 1 CDP (Fred Nile)
- 1 Shooters Party (John Tingle}
Major Parties
A quota for the Legislative Council is roughly 4.5% of the vote. According to recent opinion polls, the absolute minimum number of MLCs elected by each major party (the Liberals and Nationals running a single ticket in Legislative Council elections) would be 7 each, adding up to 31.5% in quotas. While it is difficult to predict the number of seats won by each party, recent polls indicate the Liberal-National coalition would gain seats. The lowest result in 2005 opinion polls for the Coalition, conducted at the same time as the resignation of Liberal leader John Brogden and the election of his successor, gave the Coalition 38% of the vote, which would give them a likely 9 MLCs, three more than their current complement.
With a very low number of major party MLCs elected in 1999, it does not necessarily follow that the Labor Party must lose seats if the Coalition gains seats. At its lowest point in polls, the Labor Party only stands to lose one seat, and could quite easily retain its 8 seats while suffering a swing against it, compared to the 2003 result.
Minor Parties
The 1999 election saw a number of small parties win a single seat in the Legislative Council, with seven parties winning one seat each. With the exception of the Greens and the Christian Democrats, none of those parties were able to repeat that success in 2003, following the introduction of a new electoral system which made it more difficult for small parties to win seats.
The Outdoor Recreation Party, Unity Party, and Reform the Legal System have not shown any chances of retaining their seats, not running in the 2003 election, whilst One Nation NSW (the breakaway party led by NSW MLC David Oldfield) and the Democrats have lost most of their party organisation and electoral support in recent years, and are unlikely to retain their seats.
The Greens, who have generally polled 7-8% in opinion polls, will almost certainly retain their seat, currently held by Lee Rhiannon, and are likely to gain a second seat. As the only minor party to poll more than a single quota, there is potential for the Greens to win three seats, which could be achieved with as little as 11.5% of the vote.
The Christian Democratic Party's leader, Fred Nile, is up for re-election in 2007, and will likely win re-election. Rev. Nile resigned from the Legislative Council in 2004 to contest a seat in the Australian Senate, and was re-appointed to his seat following his Senate defeat. Winning 3% in 2003, and 2.6% in the 2004 federal election, the CDP is likely to retain their seat in 2007. The CDP vote is also likely to be bolstered and more concentrated by the decision of the Family First Party not to run cadidates in the election .
Parties
- Australian Labor Party
- Liberal Party of Australia / National Party of Australia coalition
- Australian Greens
- Australian Democrats
- Christian Democratic Party
Independents
- David Barr, Member for Manly
- Peter Draper
- Dawn Fardell, Member for Dubbo, elected at the 2004 by-election following the death of Tony McGrane
- Alex McTaggart, Member for Pittwater, elected at the 2006 by-election following the resignation of Liberal leader John Brogden
- Clover Moore, Member for Bligh and Lord Mayor of Sydney
- Rob Oakeshott
- Steven Pringle, Member for Hawkesbury, elected as a Liberal MP, he resigned from the Liberal Party in 2006 after losing preselection and will contest the seat as an independent.
- Richard Torbay, member for electoral district of Northern Tablelands.
References
- Sun-Herald - Tunnel launch branded as an opportunistic election ploy
- Sydney Morning Herald - Iemma's $25m election bribe
- Sydney Morning Herald - Editorial: Public money down the tunnel
| Government of New South Wales | ||
|---|---|---|
| Executive |  | |
| Legislative | ||
| Judicial | ||
| Elections | ||
| Political parties | ||
- Debnam, Peter. When something is rotten, it's rotten. Press ad.
- Andrew Clennell and Alan Mascarenhas. Debnam off in race of his life. Sydney Morning Herald