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On 5 March 2024, Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan said that his country would apply for EU candidacy by autumn 2024 at the latest. On 12 March 2024, the European Parliament passed a resolution confirming Armenia met Maastricht Treaty Article 49 requirements and that the country may apply for EU membership. At the 2024 Copenhagen Democracy Summit, Pashinyan stated that if possible he would like Armenia to become a member of the European Union this year
. A petition calling for a referendum on whether Armenia should apply for membership of the EU, which was supported by Pashinyan, succeeded in reaching the 50,000 signatures required in order to be submitted for a vote in the National Assembly. The National Assembly is expected to vote on the matter in January 2025.
History
Main article: Armenia–European Union relations—Nikol Pashinyan in the European Parliament in 2023."The Republic of Armenia is ready to be closer to the European Union, as much as the European Union considers it possible.
The Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) (signed in 1996 and in force until February 2021) served as the legal framework for EU-Armenia bilateral relations. Since 2004, Armenia and the other South Caucasus states have been part of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). An ENP Action Plan for Armenia was published on 2 March 2005, "highlighting areas in which bilateral cooperation could feasibly and valuably be strengthened." The plan sets "jointly defined priorities in selected areas for the next five years." In November 2005, formal consultations on the Action Plan was opened in Yerevan. However, most scholars and commentators have criticized the effectiveness of the ENP in facilitating reform objectives outlined in the Action Plan, especially in relation to democracy, corruption and civil society engagement. Regardless, on 12 January 2002, the European Parliament noted that Armenia and Georgia may enter the EU in the future, as both countries are considered European. Armenia entered the EU's Eastern Partnership in 2009. Armenia is additionally a member state of the Euronest Parliamentary Assembly, Council of Europe, European Political Community, Assembly of European Regions, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, and takes part in various other European programs and treaties such as the European Cultural Convention, European Higher Education Area and the European Court of Human Rights, among others. Armenia also maintains working arrangements with CEPOL, Europol, and Frontex.
Armenia and the EU began negotiating an Association Agreement (AA), which had included a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreement, to replace the old PCA in July 2010. The EU Advisory Group to the Republic of Armenia was tasked to support the government of Armenia to implement reforms ahead of signing an Association Agreement with the EU. In November 2012, EU Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy Štefan Füle stated that the AA negotiations could be finalized by November 2013. The new EU Centre in Armenia, set to become the European Union's communication hub, officially opened in central Yerevan on 31 January 2013. However, on 3 September 2013 Armenia announced their decision to join the Eurasian Economic Union. According to EU politicians, Armenian membership in the Eurasian Economic Union would be incompatible with the agreements negotiated with the EU. President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan stated at the 2 October 2013 Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe session that Armenia was ready to sign the AA during the November 2013 Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, without the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area component of the agreement that contradicts Armenia's membership in the Eurasian Economic Union. A spokesperson of EU Commissioner Füle responded a few days later by saying "No Armenia-EU document is being readied to be signed at a Vilnius summit" and “We’re trying to find routes for further cooperation with Armenia, based on the existing achievements”. This was followed by other EU officials who echoed this statement. No AA was ultimately initialed at the summit. In December 2013, the Polish ambassador to Armenia said that the EU and Armenia were discussing a less in-depth bilateral agreement on their relations, and did "not rule out the possibility that it may be an association agreement in a different form". In January 2015, the EU commissioner for European neighbourhood policy and enlargement Johannes Hahn stated that the EU was willing to sign a revised AA without free trade provisions. Negotiations were launched in December 2015.
Although Armenia's trade with the EU far exceeds that with Eurasian Economic Union members Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan combined, Armenia is dependent on Russia for security. Armenia's alliance with Russia, and its membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, is seen by Armenia as a counterbalance to Azerbaijan’s sharp hike in military spending (Azerbaijan bought tanks, artillery cannons and rocket launchers worth billions of US dollars from Russia in 2011, 2012 and 2013). This is seen by Armenia as a threat given that the first Nagorno-Karabakh War (an armed conflict that took place from 1991 to May 1994 between Armenia and Azerbaijan) remains unresolved. Russia (also) has a military presence in Armenia, the Russian 102nd Military Base is an active base located in the city of Gyumri.
On 24 February 2017, Tigran Sargsyan, the Chairman of the Eurasian Economic Commission stated that Armenia's stance was to cooperate and work with both the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union. Sargsyan added that although Armenia is part of the Eurasian Economic Union, a revised European Union Association Agreement between Armenia and the EU would be finalized shortly.
On 27 February 2017, the European Union and Armenia finalized a new agreement on deepening their political and economic ties. Armenian president, Serzh Sargsyan, met with European Council President Donald Tusk and other high-ranking officials in Brussels. The new Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement will expand and broaden the scope of relations between the EU and Armenia, but will not be an Association Agreement. It was signed by Armenia and all EU member states on 24 November 2017. On 12 January 2002, the European Parliament noted that Armenia may enter the EU in the future. On 17 October 2023, Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan addressed the European Parliament. Pashinyan stated, "the EU is the key partner supporting the fundamental reforms of the Armenian government in recent years. The agenda of our relations with the European Union is actually very extensive. On October 5 of this year, two extremely important documents for EU–Armenia relations were adopted in Granada. Both statements support the strengthening of EU–Armenia relations in all dimensions based on the needs of the Republic of Armenia" and "we are committed to further strengthen EU–Armenia relations. In the long term, the European Union and Armenia are determined to strengthen their economic ties by working to unlock the full potential of the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement. The Republic of Armenia is ready to be closer to the European Union, as much as the European Union considers it possible." On 14 November 2023, Civil Contract deputy and Chairman of the Standing Committee on European Integration Arman Yeghoyan stated that "Armenia may plan to join the European Union in the future" during a press conference. On 15 November 2023, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan stated "I want to commend the European Commission's decision to recommend the European Council to open accession talks with Moldova and Ukraine and to grant candidate status to Georgia. This decision is welcomed not only by the Government of Armenia, but also people of Armenia, who also have European aspirations." On 29 February 2024, the President of the National Assembly Alen Simonyan stated that Armenia should seek EU membership. On 2 March 2024, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan advised that Armenia would officially "apply to become a candidate for EU membership in the coming days, within a month at most". On 5 March, Pashinyan stated that Armenia would apply for EU candidacy by autumn 2024 at the latest.
On 8 March 2024, on the sidelines of the 2024 Antalya Diplomacy Forum, Armenian foreign minister Ararat Mirzoyan stated that "Armenia is seeking to get closer to the West amid worsening relations with Russia" and "New opportunities are largely being discussed in Armenia nowadays, that includes membership in the European Union". On 12 March 2024, the European Parliament passed a resolution confirming Armenia meets Maastricht Treaty Article 49 requirements and may apply for EU membership. The resolution praised the progress achieved by Armenia towards the implementation of CEPA. The resolution also acknowledged that CEPA acts as a blueprint to further integration, reforms, and a potential roadmap to a future Association Agreement and sectoral integration with the European single market. On 15 March 2024, Armenian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Paruyr Hovhannisyan announced that Armenia is currently crafting a new cooperation agreement with the EU, aiming to finalize and sign it by July 2024. Hovhannisyan stated, "If the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement between Armenia and the EU is fully implemented, we will indeed have the status of a candidate country for EU membership." The following day, Foreign Affairs and Security Policy of the European Commission spokesperson Peter Stano stated, "Countries have the right to strive for a better future for their people. They are free to decide how to ensure such a future. As for EU membership, each European country—its people and government—must decide whether it wants to apply for EU membership", the EU official said in response to whether the EU's doors are open to Armenia.
On 5 April 2024, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan met with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell, and United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Brussels for a high-level trilateral summit between Armenia, the EU, and the US. Von der Leyen stated, "The European Union and Armenia are increasingly aligned in values and interest", while Borrell added "our relations are developing on a positive track, they are stronger than ever". The sides pledged continued support for Armenia, including providing the country with €270 million in grants and economic support. Von der Leyen stated, "We will make investments to strengthen Armenia's economy and society, making them more robust and stable".
On 5 April 2024, Armenia signed a cooperation agreement with Eurojust.
At the 2024 Copenhagen Democracy Summit, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that he would like Armenia to become a member of the European Union "this year."
In May 2024, the United Platform of Democratic Forces called on the government of Armenia to apply for EU and NATO membership. On 21 June 2024, the United Platform of Democratic Forces organized a hearing in the National Assembly of Armenia calling for the government to hold a referendum on submitting an EU membership application. The alliance proposed holding the referendum within the subsequent four months.
On 27 June, the president of the National Assembly, Alen Simonyan confirmed that Armenia's leadership wanted the country to join the EU, and that it would hold a referendum in the near future. Simonyan stated that "our society has made a decision to be part of the European Union" and "I think that sometime in the near future we will have this referendum and I am sure that our people will say yes".
On 9 September 2024, prime minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed that the issue of starting the EU membership process has become part of the Armenian political agenda. Pashinyan stated, "discussions are underway in the country regarding the possibility of Armenia becoming a member of the European Union," during a meeting with Vice-President of the European Commission Margaritis Schinas.
On 11 September 2024, the Central Electoral Commission approved the application of the United Platform of Democratic Forces to organize a petition calling for a referendum in Armenia on the country's accession to the EU. The Central Electoral Commission confirmed that 50K signatures would be needed before 14 November 2024 in order to bring the motion to the National Assembly.
On 18 September 2024, prime minister Nikol Pashinyan said in a statement regarding Armenia's EU membership at the 2nd Global Armenian Summit held in Yerevan: "Here, too, we need to understand that this is not a unilateral or even bilateral action. At this point, we need to be very careful when formulating problems in order not to create new disappointments in our people on the way to solving these problems. Finally, Armenia's EU membership also needs to be imagined physically. Georgia–EU relations are important, what will happen, Turkey–EU relations are important, how will they develop. In this context, it is very important how Armenia–Turkey relations will develop. If we see a more or less realistic prospect of becoming a full member of the European Union, including keeping under control the possible threats that may arise along the way, we will definitely not miss that moment," he said.
On 7 November 2024, the United Platform of Democratic Forces submitted the collected signatures to the Central Election Commission for review. Once the Central Election Commission approves the submitted signatures, the petition will be presented to the National Assembly for debate. The alliance stated that if the National Assembly refuses to hold a referendum on EU membership, they will organize a second petition for which it will be necessary to collect 300,000 signatures, which will allow the alliance to hold a referendum bypassing the National Assembly entirely. On 22 November 2024, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that "there is no political logic in being against holding a referendum on EU membership".
On 10 December 2024, the Central Electoral Commission concluded their review of the 60,000 signatures collected, and determined that there was a sufficient number of valid signatures for the petition to be sent to the National Assembly. The petition was then submitted as the draft law "On the launch of the process of accession of the Republic of Armenia to the European Union", and the National Assembly is expected to conduct its vote for approval of this bill in January 2025. Ahead of the vote in the National Assembly, the Armenian government expressed a positive position for supporting the bills approval, and Pashinyan further elaborated that: "In the event of the adoption of this law, it is necessary to have a certain idea of actions up to the point of holding or not holding a potential referendum. What is that idea? The idea is that after the adoption of this law, we should discuss with the European Union the roadmap that they imagine and that we imagine, and develop a roadmap together." The decision for the government to support the bill, was reported to be the first step of "the beginning of the accession process of the Republic of Armenia to the European Union". If the bill is approved by the parliament, it will provide the official legal framework for the country's further steps toward EU integration.
Public opinion
A December 2006 public opinion poll in Armenia found that EU membership would be welcomed, with 64% out of a sample of 2,000 being in favour and only 11.8% being against. Another poll conducted in the Armenian capital Yerevan in October 2006 suggested that "as many as 72% of city residents believe, with varying degrees of conviction, that their country's future lies with the EU rather than the Russian-dominated Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)." Still, more than two-thirds of the country's population believed that Armenia would not be ready to join the EU until at least 2019.
A 2007 opinion poll indicated an increase in Armenian EU interest, with 80% of the Armenian public favoring eventual membership.
According to a 2012 opinion poll, 54% (26% strong support+28% rather support) of Armenians supported Armenia's membership in the EU.
The 3 September 2013 decision by Armenia to join the Eurasian Union sparked a series of protests in Yerevan against the action, as many feared that Russia was trying to stop Armenia from building a deeper relationship with the EU just as they had tried to do in Ukraine leading to the Euromaidan demonstrations. Eurasia Partnership Fund director Gevorg Ter-Gabrielyan stated that, "We need to fight against Russian interference" however, he also acknowledged that,"The public largely supports joining with Russia. Plus they don't like the EU, which they see as a source of perverted values," he added "They love Russia, at least insofar as the monster you know is better than one you don't".
According to a 2017 Gallup opinion poll conducted in Armenia, 27.2% of those surveyed favored integration with the European Union, while 36% favored integration with the Eurasian Economic Union.
According to the 2018 survey by EU NEIGHBOURS east project:
- Pro-EU sentiments are rising in Armenia; 48% of Armenians have a positive image of the EU, the same as in 2017. The number of persons with negative opinions of the EU is just 8%.
- 80% of Armenians (up 4% on 2017) feel relations with the European Union are good - well ahead of the regional average (63%).
- 70% of people in Armenia trust the EU (up 5% on 2017), while trust in the Eurasian Economic Union (48%) has declined.
- 69% of Armenians (up 4% on 2017) are aware of the EU's financial support to the country, and two thirds feel that EU support is effective (66%- up from 62% in 2016 and compared to a regional average of 48% in the Eastern Neighbourhood countries).
A 2020 poll found that over 40% of Armenians were in favor of EU membership.
According to the 2020 survey by EU NEIGHBOURS east project:
- 86% of Armenians (up 10% on 2016) feel relations with the European Union are good - well ahead of the Eastern Partnership regional average (70%).
- 60% of people in Armenia trust the EU compared to 51% trusting in the Eurasian Economic Union.
- 65% of Armenians are aware of the EU's financial support to the country, and 80% of those who are aware of the support feel that it is effective.
According to a February 2023 annual opinion survey, 60% of Armenians trust the European Union, more than any other international institution. While 74% think relations between the EU and Armenia are good.
A March 2024 poll conducted by the International Republican Institute found that over 80% of Armenians were satisfied with the direction of EU–Armenia relations. The same poll showed a dramatic deterioration of public trust in Russia, with only 31% of Armenians considering Armenia–Russia relations good, compared to 93% in 2019.
A July 2024 Gallup opinion poll found that 56.7% of respondents expressed support for Armenia joining the European Union.
A October 2024 poll conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI) found that 58% of Armenians were in favour of joining the European Union when asked how they would vote in a referendum on EU membership. Senior Director for Eurasia at IRI, Stephen Nix stated "This poll shows that most Armenians see their prospects for a bright future with Europe. Moreover, the people of Armenia understand that moving further away from Russia and towards the West is important to enhancing peace and prosperity."
See also
- Enlargement of the European Union
- Potential enlargement of the European Union
- Armenia–European Union relations
- Armenia–NATO relations
References
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