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2007 Australian federal election

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Template:Future election The next Australian legislative election is expected to take place in 2007.

The opposition Australian Labor Party, currently led by Kim Beazley, will be challenging the incumbent Coalition government. It is not known whether the current Prime Minister, John Howard, will lead the Coalition into the election, or whether he will retire before the election, in which case Peter Costello is expected to succeed him. Nor is it known whether Beazley will retain the ALP leadership until the election.

House of Representatives

At the 2004 election the Coalition won 87 seats (Liberal 75, National 12), to the Labor Party's 60 seats. Three independents were elected. To gain outright control of the House of Representatives, the ALP will thus require a net gain of 16 seats.

Due to population shifts, Queensland will gain a seat at the expense of New South Wales in a redistribution to be conducted during 2006.

Marginal seats

On the current boundaries, the following are the Coalition parties' 16 most marginal seats. Assuming a uniform swing, Labor will need to win all these seats to gain government. These seats are commonly called the "key marginals."

Labor thus requires a uniform national two-party swing of 5.0% to win the election. In practice swing is never uniform, but variations of swing among the states tend to cancel each other out.

Prime Minister John Howard's seat of Bennelong, which has been held continuously by the Liberals since its creation in 1949, is now a key marginal. This area of Sydney has undergone substantial demographic change. The redistribution to take place in New South Wales may make Bennelong even more marginal. If Howard were to contest Bennelong and lose, it would be only the second time in Australian history that a sitting Prime Minister has been defeated in his own electorate.

Retiring members

The following members of the House of Representatives have announced they will retire at the 2007 election:

Possibly retiring members

Other members of the House of Representatives who may retire at the 2007 election include:

Preselection challenges

In addition, several members are facing pre-selection challenges. These include:

Australian Labor Party

Liberal Party

The Age reported in February 2006 that while the challenge to Griffin was likely to fail, the challenges to Corcoran, Crean and O'Connor were expected to succeed. The challenges to Jenkins and Vamvakinou were reported in the week before the vote to be very close. The challenge to Danby is considered unlikely to succeed. Crean, Griffin and O'Connor are all members of the current Opposition Shadow Ministry.

Senate

To gain a majority in the Senate, Labor, the Greens and/or the Democrats would need to win two seats from the Coalition. Given that these parties won three of the six vacancies in each state at the 2001 election, they would have to win four vacancies out of six in two states when these seats come up for re-election in 2007. This is considered unlikely. If Labor or the Greens gain one seat from the Coalition, Steve Fielding of the Family First Party would hold the balance of power.

Australian Greens Senators Bob Brown and Kerry Nettle will both face re-election. There is some speculation about whether or not Brown will stand again, as if he were to stand for another term he would be 69 by the end of his third term. The Australian Democrats are expected to lose their remaining Senate representation, since all their four Senators are up for re-election and their performance remains consistently poor in the polls.

The following Senators have announced they will retire at the 2007 election:

The following Senators are facing re-election in 2007 and may retire:

  • Ron Boswell (National, Queensland): will be 67 in December 2007. He is seeking National Party endorsement for another term but is facing strong opposition.
  • Paul Calvert (Liberal, Tasmania): will be 67 in January 2007 (but is President of the Senate)
  • George Campbell (ALP, NSW): will be 64 in February 2007 (must retire under ALP rules)
  • Grant Chapman (Liberal, South Australia): will be 56 in April 2007 (relatively young but has been an MP and Senator for 30 years and has never held office)
  • Alan Eggleston (Liberal, Western Australia}: will be 66 in December 2007
  • Ross Lightfoot (Liberal, Western Australia): will be 71 in August 2007
  • John Watson (Liberal, Tasmania): will be 70 in January 2007

Election timetable

Given the result of the 2004 election, it is more likely than not that the 2007 election will be a regular election, and not a double dissolution election.

The last date on which the next election can be held is calculated in the following way:

  • Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House."
  • Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof."
  • Section 156 (1) of the Electoral Act says: "the date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ."
  • Section 157 of the Electoral Act says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination."

This parliament first met on 16 November 2004. Therefore it expires on 16 November 2007. The writs must therefore be issued by 26 November 2007 (ten days after the expiry). The last date on which nominations can close is therefore 23 December 2007 (27 days after the writs). The last Saturday on which polling can take place therefore is 19 January 2008 (30 day period following the nomination would expire on the 22nd.). However, no Australian Prime Minister has yet called an election to take place in January.

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