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2012 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

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United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2012
← 2010 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2018 →
 
Nominee Scott Brown Elizabeth Warren
Party Republican Democratic
U.S. senator before election

Scott Brown
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

TBD

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flag Massachusetts portal

The 2012 United States Senate election in Massachusetts will take place on November 6, 2012. The election will run concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Scott Brown is running for re-election, to a first full term, after winning a special election in 2010. He will face Democratic candidate Elizabeth Warren in the general election.

Background

Democratic U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy was re-elected in 2006, and died August 25, 2009. Democrat Paul Kirk was appointed September 24, 2009 to replace him until a special election could be held. In the January 19, 2010 special election, Republican State Senator Scott Brown defeated Democratic State Attorney General Martha Coakley. Brown began serving the remainder of Kennedy's term on February 4, 2010.

Republican primary

Candidates

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Scott
Brown 		"More conservative
challenger" 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 16 - 18, 2011 255 ± 6.1% 70% 21% 9%

Democratic primary

The primary election was held September 6, 2012, with Elizabeth Warren running unopposed. On June 2, 2012, Warren received 95.77% of the votes of the Party convention, being the only candidate with 15% of delegates necessary to qualify for the ballot.

Candidates

Withdrew

Polling and results

Poll
source 		Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Tom
Conroy 		Marisa
DeFranco 		Jim
King 		Alan
Khazei 		Bob
Massie 		Herb
Robinson 		Elizabeth
Warren 		Setti
Warren 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 16 – 18, 2011 461 ± 4.6% 7% 2% 9% 2% 1% 55% 1% 22%
UMass Lowell September 22 – 28, 2011 1005 ± 3.8% 5% 4% 3% 3% 1% 36% 3% 1% 32%
YouGov for UMass Amherst November 9 – 22, 2011 122 ± 4.6% 7% 6% 2% 73% 13%
Suffolk University/7NEWS February 11 – 15, 2012 218 ± [?] % 5% 1% 72% 20%
Suffolk University/7NEWS May 20 – 22, 2012 284 ± [?] % 6% 71% 12%
Convention vote June 2, 2012 3,500 0% 4.23% 95.77%
Primary vote September 6, 2012 316,617 0% 97.59%
308,979 		2.41%
7,638

General election campaign

Scott Brown

Republican Scott Brown is running as a moderate. He has stressed his support for most abortion rights. He was the first U.S. Senator to call for Todd Akin to drop out of the Missouri U.S. Senate race after his "legitimate rape" comment. He also called on the Republican Party to "recognize in its platform that you can be pro-choice and still be a good Republican." He is endorsed by the anti-abortion group Massachusetts Citizens for Life and has earned an 80% rating from the National Right to Life Committee. Brown holds that states should be allowed to decide whether or not to allow gay marriage. He opposed the anti-gay marriage stance of Chick-fil-A President Dan T. Cathy. Brown has been endorsed by many prominent Massachusetts Democrats, many of whom are prominently featured in his campaign ads.

Brown attended, but was not a speaker at, the 2012 Republican National Convention. According to Brown, he had rejected an offer to play a bigger role there. Brown stated that he had limited his attendance to a single day because of scheduling demands, not concern about fallout for his reelection campaign. Brown had spent the first days of the Convention training with the United States National Guard.

Elizabeth Warren

Elizabeth Warren has campaigned as an anti-Wall Street candidate willing to speak up for the middle class and families. She has worked to make Wall Street and big banks more accountable. Warren has criticized Brown's voting history, claiming he opposed job creation, opposed the Buffett Rule, opposed equal work/equal pay for women, and opposed women's free-choice access to birth control (Blunt amendment).

In September, 2011, a video of Warren explaining her approach to economic policy gained popularity on the internet. In the video, Warren rebuts the charge that asking the rich to pay more taxes is "class warfare", pointing out that no one grew rich in America without depending on infrastructure paid for by the rest of society. Warren said, "Now look, you built a factory and it turned into something terrific, or a great idea. God bless — keep a big hunk of it. But part of the underlying social contract is, you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along." On July 13, President Obama sparked a controversy when he echoed her thoughts in a campaign speech saying, "Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges. If you've got a business—you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."

On April 27, 2012, the Boston Herald reported that Harvard Law School had touted Warren's Native American heritage as proof of their faculty's diversity. When the Herald inquired about Warren's Native American heritage, her campaign stated that she had learned of her heritage through family lore about her Cherokee ancestors. Harvard Law professor Charles Fried, who had served as Solicitor General in the Reagan administration and sat on the appointing committee that recommended Warren for hire in 1995, said that her heritage was never mentioned and played no role in the appointments process.

Warren spoke at the 2012 Democratic National Convention, immediately before Bill Clinton, on the evening of September 5, 2012, the penultimate night of the convention. Warren contrasted President Obama’s economic plan with his opponent's in the 2012 election and rebuked the Republican Party's economic policy stating: "Their vision is clear: 'I've got mine, and the rest of you are on your own.'" Warren positioned herself as a champion of a beleaguered middle class that, as she said, "has been chipped, squeezed and hammered." According to Warren, "People feel like the system is rigged against them. And here's the painful part: They're right. The system is rigged." Warren criticized Wall Street CEOs, saying that they "wrecked our economy and destroyed millions of jobs — still strut around Congress, no shame, demanding favors, and acting like we should thank them."

Fundraising

The People's Pledge

Both Warren and Brown stated early in their campaign that they would keep super PACs and other interest groups out of the race and both issued statements anticipating negative effects of the new section 527 and SuperPACs on debate. On January 23, 2012 the candidates signed an agreement, quickly called the "People's Pledge", to refuse help from all third party organizations. The signers pledged to ask all such groups, including party committees, to refrain from involving themselves in the campaign, and to compel the candidate that benefitted from any third party advertisement to donate a sum equal to 50% of the value of that ad to a charity of the other candidate's choice.

Top donors

Source: Center for Responsive Politics

Contributions by affiliation
Scott Brown Elizabeth Warren
Contributor Contribution Contributor Contribution
Fidelity Investments $197,425 EMILY's List $306,908
EMC Corporation $150,450 Harvard University $157,951
MassMutual $101,448 Moveon.org $47,140
Goldman Sachs $80,400 Brown Rudnick LLP $45,627
Liberty Mutual $79,150 University of California $36,600
Raytheon $77,751 Berger & Montague $36,500
PriceWaterhouseCoopers $73,330 Mintz, Levin et al $35,600
JPMorgan Chase $71,155 Robbins, Geller et al $29,500
Bain Capital $65,700 Faruqi & Faruqi $28,250
Greenberg Traurig LLP $60,850 Nixon Peabody $26,223

Note: The organizations themselves did not donate, rather the money came from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families. Organization totals include subsidiaries and affiliates.

Contributions by industry
Scott Brown Elizabeth Warren
Industry Contribution Industry Contribution
Securities & Investment $2,438,438 Retired $1,279,140
Retired $2,300,274 Lawyers/Law Firms $1,189,872
Lawyers/Law Firms $1,012,122 Women's Issues $743,071
Real Estate $887,884 Democratic/Liberal $289,128
Insurance $729,240 Securities & Investment $243,000
Health Professionals $672,473 Business Services $219,534
Misc Finance $574,606 Health Professionals $168,299
Computers/Internet $499,205 Printing & Publishing $159,729
Business Services $487,819 TV/Movies/Music $152,031
Leadership PACs $479,926 Misc Business $150,955

Endorsements

For Scott Brown

Politicians

Labor unions
  • Boston Police Superior Officers Federation
  • Commissioned Officers Association of the Massachusetts State Police
  • Fraternal Order of Police
  • Lowell Police Patrolmen’s Association
  • Lowell Police Superior Officer's Association
  • Massachusetts Municipal Police Coalition
  • Massachusetts Police Association
  • Massachusetts Police Chiefs Association
  • MBTA Police Sergeants Association
  • MBTA Police Patrolmen’s Association
  • New England Police Benevolent Association
  • Medford Police Patrolmen’s Union
  • Milford Police Association
  • State Police Association of Massachusetts
  • Worcester's New England Police Benevolent Association
  • Worcester Police Patrolman’s Union
Military
Newspapers
Celebrities and prominent individuals
Organizations
Rescinded

For Elizabeth Warren

Politicians
Labor unions
Religious leaders
  • Bob Massie, priest, author, social activist, and former candidate for U.S. Senate
  • Archbishop Timothy Paul Baymon, President of the Council of Churches of Greater Springfield
  • Reverend Talbert Swan, President of the Springfield NAACP
  • Reverend Jeffrey Brown, co-founder and Executive Director of the Boston TenPoint Coalition
  • Reverend Eugene Rivers, co-founder of the Boston TenPoint Coalition
Newspapers
Celebrities and prominent individuals
Organizations

Debates

The candidates agreed to four televised debates, of which three were held:

September 20: WBZ-TV's studio and air live on WBZ and WBZ Newsradio 1030 from 7 to 8 pm. Moderated by the station's political reporter Jon Keller

October 1: UMASS Lowell. Co-hosted by the university and the Boston Herald and moderated by David Gregory

October 10: Springfield's Symphony Hall, hosted by a Western Massachusetts consortium, moderated by WGBY-TV's Jim Madigan.

The candidates agreed to a fourth debate that was to be held on October 30 in WGBH-TV's studio, hosted by a Boston media consortium, and moderated by John King. However, on October 29, both candidates pulled out of the debate due to Hurricane Sandy.

Victoria Kennedy, president of the board of the Edward M. Kennedy Institute for the United States Senate, had proposed an additional debate with Tom Brokaw as moderator and broadcast by "our local NBC affiliate and/or MSNBC". However, Brown would only accept the invitation if she pledged not to endorse Brown's opponent; Kennedy refused.

Polling

In September 2011, Public Policy Polling (PPP) released a poll showing Elizabeth Warren with a 2-point lead over Brown, the first poll to show a Democrat leading Brown since the early days of the 2010 special election. Brown was reportedly very concerned about the result; other Republicans downplayed it as the work of "a Democrat polling firm funded in part by SEIU and which donates money to national Democrats." Supporters of PPP, however, have lauded the firm for not having a statistical bias in the past.

Hypothetical polling

Brown (R) against other Democratic candidates

Poll
source 		↑ Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Democrats Republicans Other Undecided
Capuano Coakley Defranco J. Kennedy V. Kennedy King Khazei Markey Massie Murray Patrick S. Warren Brown
Public Policy
Polling 		November 29 –
December 1, 2010 		500 ±
4.4% 		36% 52% 12%
41% 48% 11%
39% 49% 13%
42% 49% 9%
Western N.E. Univ. March 6 –
10, 2011 		472 ±
4.5% 		38% 51% 10%
7News/
Suffolk
University 		April 3 –
5, 2011 		500 ±
4.4% 		26% 52% 1% 19%
40% 45% 0% 13%
30% 52% 0% 16%
26% 53% 0% 19%
23% 51% 1% 22%
37% 52% 0% 11%
9% 52% 3% 32%
Public Policy
Polling 		June 2 –
5, 2011 		957 ±
3.2% 		38% 48% 14%
40% 49% 10%
31% 50% 19%
37% 47% 16%
25% 48% 27%
23% 48% 29%
WBUR
MassInc 		August 30 –
September 1, 2011 		500 ±
4.4% 		30% 45% 2% 21%
29% 45% 3% 22%
28% 46% 3% 23%
Public Policy
Polling 		September 16–
18, 2011 		957 ±
3.2% 		33% 48% 18%
31% 49% 21%
32% 47% 21%
UMass Lowell September 22–
28, 2011 		1005 ±
3.8% 		40% 41% 4% 12%
45% 37% 4% 12%
28% 40% 6% 18%
27% 43% 5% 19%
43% 36% 5% 13%
28% 43% 6% 16%
Suffolk/WHDH February 11-
15, 2012 		600 ± 4.0% 22% 55% 2% 21%
21% 57% 2% 20%
Suffolk/WHDH May 20-
22, 2012 		600 ± 4.0% 28% 49% 0% 22%
Poll
source 		↑ Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Capuano Coakley Defranco J. Kennedy V. Kennedy King Khazei Markey Massie Murray Patrick S. Warren Brown Other Undecided
Democrats Republicans

Brown vs. Warren

Poll source Dates
administered 		Sample Scott
Brown
(R) 		Margin Elizabeth
Warren
(D) 		Other Undecided
Size Type* MoE
W. New England U. March 6 – 10, 2011 472 Rv ± 4.5% 51% R+17% 34% 14%
Public Policy Polling June 2 – 5, 2011 957 Rv ± 3.2% 47% R+15% 32% 21%
Public Policy Polling Sept. 16 – 18, 2011 957 Rv ± 3.2% 44% D+2% 46% 10%
UMass Lowell Sept. 22 – 28, 2011 1005 Rv ± 3.8% 41% R+3% 38% 3% 14%
W. New England U. September 29 – October 5, 2011 475 Rv ± 4.5% 47% R+5% 42% 10%
YouGov for UMass Amherst November 9 – 22, 2011 433 Rv ± 4.4% 39% D+4% 43% 4% 14%
UMass Lowell / Boston Herald Decdember 1 – 6, 2011 505 Rv ± 5.3% 42% D+7% 49% 3% 6%
Opinion Dynamics for Mass Insight January 31 – February 4, 2012 456 Rv ± 4.6% 52% R+10% 42% 6%
MassINC for WBUR February 6 – 9, 2012 505 Lv ± 4.4% 43% D+3% 46% 1% 11%
Suffolk/WHDH February 11 – 15, 2012 600 Lv ± 4.0% 49% R+9% 40% 2% 9%
Rasmussen Reports February 29, 2012 500 Lv ± 4.5% 49% R+5% 44% 2% 5%
W. New England U. February 23 – March 1, 2012 527 Rv ± 4.3% 49% R+8% 41% 10%
Public Policy Polling March 16 – 18, 2012 936 Rv ± 3.2% 41% D+5% 46% 13%
Boston Globe March 21 – 27, 2012 544 Lv ± 4.2% 37% R+2% 35% 26%
Rasmussen Reports April 9, 2012 500 Lv ± 4.5% 45% D+1% 46% 1% 8%
MassINC for MassLive April 25 – 28, 2012 438 Lv ± 4.7% 41% D+2% 43% 1% 12%
Rasmussen Reports May 7, 2012 500 Lv ± 4.5% 45% even 45% 2% 8%
Suffolk/WHDH May 20 – 22, 2012 600 Lv ± 4.0% 48% R+1% 47% 5%
Boston Globe May 25 – 31, 2012 651 Lv ± 3.8% 39% R+2% 37% 2% 23%
W. New England U. May 29 – 31, 2012 504 Rv ± 4.4% 43% D+2% 45% 11%
Public Policy Polling June 22 – 24, 2012 902 Rv ± 3.3% 46% even 46% 8%
MassINC July 19 – 22, 2012 445 Rv ± 4.4% 38% D+2% 40% 16%
Public Policy Polling August 16 – 19, 2012 1,115 Lv ± 2.9% 49% R+5% 44% 8%
Kimball Political Consulting August 21, 2012 1,500 Rv ± 4.0% 49% R+6% 43% 9%
Kimball Political Consulting September 7 – 9, 2012 756 Lv ± 3.5% 46% R+1% 45% 9%
W. New England U. September 6 – 13, 2012 444 Lv ± 4.6% 44% D+6% 50% 6%
Public Policy Polling September 13 – 16, 2012 876 Lv ± 3.3% 46% D+2% 48% 6%
Suffolk/WHDH September 13 – 16, 2012 600 Lv ± 4% 44% D+4% 48% 8%
UMass Lowell / Boston Herald September 13 – 17, 2012 497 Lv ± 5.5% 49% R+4% 45% 1% 4%
MassINC for WBUR September 15 – 17, 2012 507 Lv ± 4.4% 40% D+5% 45% 2% 12%
Kimball Political Consulting September 20, 2012 868 Lv ± 3.25% 48% R+1% 47% 1% 3%
UMass Lowell / Boston Herald September 20, 2012 524 Rv ± 5.3% 50% R+6% 44% 1% 5%
Rasmussen Reports September 24, 2012 500 Lv ± 4.5% 48% even 48% 5%
Boston Globe September 21 – 27, 2012 502 Lv ± 4.4% 38% D+5% 43% 1% 18%
WBUR September 26 – 28, 2012 504 Lv ± 4.4% 45% D+4% 49% 1% 6%
Opinion Dynamics for Mass Insight September 25 – 30, 2012 329 Lv ± 5.4% 44% D+4% 48% 8%
W. New England U. September 28 – October 4, 2012 440 Lv ± 4.3% 45% D+5% 50% 5%
MassINC for WBUR October 5 – 7, 2012 501 Lv ± 4.4% 48% R+3% 45% 1% 8%
YouGov for UMass Amherst October 2 – 8, 2012 436 Lv ± 5.4% 45% D+3% 48% 6%
Rasmussen Reports October 10, 2012 500 Lv ± 4.5% 47% D+2% 49% 4%
Public Policy Polling October 9 – 11, 2012 1,051 Lv ± 3.0% 44% D+6% 50% 6%
YouGov October 4 – 11, 2012 669 Lv ± 4.9% 39% D+7% 46% 15%
Public Policy Polling for the LCV October 15 – 16, 2012 709 Lv ± 3.5% 44% D+9% 53%
Kimball Political Consulting October 18 – 21, 2012 761 Lv ± 3.5% 45% D+3% 48% 7%
MassINC for WBUR October 21 – 22, 2012 516 Lv ± 4.4% 44% D+6% 50% 1% 4%
Rasmussen Reports October 25, 2012 500 Lv ± 4.5% 47% D+5% 52%
Boston Globe October 24 – 28, 2012 583 Lv ± 4.1% 47% even 47% 6%
Suffolk/WHDH October 25 – 28, 2012 600 Lv ± 4% 46% D+7% 53% 1%
W. New England U. October 26 – November 1, 2012 535 Lv ± 4% 46% D+4% 50% 4%
Kimball Political Consulting October 31 – November 1, 2012 761 Lv ± 3.5% 49% R+2% 47% 5%
Public Policy Polling November 1 – 2, 2012 1,089 Lv ± 3% 46% D+6% 52% 2%
UMass Lowell/Boston Herald October 31 – November 3, 2012 800 Lv ± 4.1% 49% R+1% 48% 1% 1%

* Rv= Registered voter; Lv= Likely voter

Results

General election: November 6, 2012
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Scott Brown (incumbent) TBD TBD TBD
Democratic Elizabeth Warren TBD TBD TBD
Majority TBD TBD TBD
Turnout TBD TBD TBD

See also

Notes

A. The Western Massachusetts consortium consists of The Republican/MassLive.com, Daily Hampshire Gazette, New England Public Radio, WSHM-LD, WWLP-TV, WGGB-TV, WGBY-TV, Western New England University, Valley Press Club, University of Massachusetts Amherst, and the Springfield Public Forum.
B. The Boston media consortium consists of WGBH-TV/WGBH FM, WBUR, New England Cable News, WCVB-TV, WHDH, and The Boston Globe.

References

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