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Hurricane Keith

Category 4 major hurricane (SSHWS/NWS)
Keith near peak intensity, shortly before landfall in Belize
Formed	September 28, 2000
Dissipated	October 6, 2000
Highest winds	1-minute sustained: 140 mph (220 km/h)
Lowest pressure	939 mbar (hPa); 27.73 inHg
Fatalities	40 direct
Damage	$319 million (2000 USD)
Areas affected	Central America, Mexico
Part of the 2000 Atlantic hurricane season

Hurricane Keith caused extensive damage in Central America, especially in Mexico and Belize. The fifteenth tropical cyclone, eleventh named storm, and seventh hurricane of the 2000 Atlantic hurricane season, Keith developed as a tropical depression from a tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea on September 28. The depression gradually strengthened, and became Tropical Storm Keith on the following day. As the storm tracked westward, it continued to intensify and was upgraded to a hurricane on September 30. Shortly thereafter, Keith began to rapidly deepen, and peaked as a Category 4 hurricane less than 24 hours later. Keith then began to meander erratically offshore of Belize, which significantly weakened the storm due to land interaction. By late on October 2, Keith made landfall in Ambergris Caye, Belize as a minimal hurricane. It quickly weakened to a tropical storm, before another landfall occurred near Belize City early on the following day. While moving inland over the Yucatán Peninsula, Keith weakened further, and was downgraded to a tropical depression before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico on October 4. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Keith began to re-strengthen and was upgraded to a tropical storm later that day, and a hurricane on the following day. By late on October 5, Keith made its third and final landfall near Tampico, Tamaulipas, Mexico as a moderately strong Category 1 hurricane. The storm quickly weakened inland and dissipated as a tropical cyclone by 24 hours after landfall.

Keith brought heavy rainfall to several countries in Central America, which resulted in extensive flooding, especially in Belize and Mexico. In Guatemala, the storm flooded 10 towns, and caused one fatality. Similarly, one fatality also occurred in El Salvador, and at least 300 people were affected by flooding in that country. Thirteen communities in Nicaragua were completely isolated after Keith made roads impassable. Twelve deaths were reported in Nicaragua, all of which were flood-related. Five people were presumed dead in Honduras after an aircraft disappeared near Roatán; one other fatality occurred due to flooding. The storm brought torrential rainfall to Belize, with many areas reporting at least 10 inches (250 mm) of rain, while highest reported amount of precipitation was greater than 30 inches (760 mm). In Belize, a village reported that only 12 houses remained, while elsewhere in the country, at least 60 homes were destroyed or damaged; several houses in Belize City suffered minor roof damage. At least 19 people were killed in Belize and damages totaled to $280 million (2000 USD). Heavy rainfall also occurred in Mexico, especially in the states of Nuevo León and Tamaulipas. Flooding from Keith caused several mudslides and a few rivers reached historic levels. Throughout Mexico, at least 460 houses were damage or destroyed and other losses in infrastructure occurred. In addition, one person drowned due to heavy rainfall. Damages incurred in associated with Keith in Mexico totaled to approximately $365.9 million (2000 MXN, $38.7 million 2000 USD). Overall, Keith was responsible for 40 deaths and $319 million (2000 USD) in damage.

Meteorological history

On September 16, a tropical wave – an elongated area of low air pressure moving from east to west – exited the west coast of Africa. It moved westward across the Atlantic Ocean without development due to the presence of upper-level wind shear. After moving across the Caribbean Sea, a disturbance along the wave started to become better organized on September 27. The next day, a Hurricane Hunters flight indicated a closed circulation and winds of 37 mph (60 km/h); upon receiving the data, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen at 2100 UTC. The NHC later estimated the depression had formed three hours earlier, about 70 mi (110 km) north-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios. Upon forming, the depression had good outflow, although the convection was not as organized. With an anticyclone over the system, the depression was expected to gradually intensify while moving slowly to the west-northwest, a motion caused by weak steering winds. Late on September 28, the NHC upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Keith, after another Hurricane Hunters mission reported flight-level winds of 61 mph (98 km/h).

By the time Keith became a tropical storm, it was beginning to undergo rapid deepening, fueled by warm waters, low wind shear, and an organizing cloud pattern. There initially was uncertainty in the storm's future movement, due to a ridge in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical cyclone prediction models differed on their assessments; three models anticipated a turn to the northeast toward Florida due to a trough, while others predicted a continued slow motion to the west-northwest, eventually reaching the Bay of Campeche. After continued strengthening, Keith became a hurricane on September 30, just 18 hours after becoming a tropical storm. That day, an eye began developing as the structure became much better organized. In a 13 hour period beginning at 1808 UTC on September 30, Keith underwent explosive deepening, as its barometric pressure dropped at a rate of nearly 3 mbar (0.089 inHg) per hour. The NHC noted that Keith experienced conditions "ideal for strengthening", with the exception of the approaching land interaction with the Yucatán peninsula. The hurricane slowed until stalling offshore eastern Belize, caused by the ridge to the north and the precursor to Tropical Storm Leslie forming over Cuba. By early on October 1, Keith had developed a well-defined eye about 20 mi (32 km) in diameter, with what the NHC described as a "spectacular appearance." Later that day, Hurricane Hunters estimated a minimum pressure of 939 mbar (27.7 inHg) and deployed a dropsonde that observed peak winds of 176 mph (283 km/h). Based on the data, the NHC estimated that Keith attained peak winds of 140 mph (220 km/h) at 0700 UTC on October 1, while just offshore eastern Belize. This made it a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.

Shortly after Keith reached peak intensity, the eye had moved over portions of Belize, causing it to lose definition. Outflow became restricted, and the developing disturbance to the northeast increased wind shear. As a result, Keith began to weaken steadily, moving over Ambergris Cay and Caye Caulker as a Category 3 hurricane late on October 1. While remaining nearly stationary, Keith made a second landfall on Ambergris Cay late on October 2 as a minimal hurricane. Shortly thereafter, Keith weakened into a tropical storm, and its convection became limited to the southeastern quadrant. At 0300 UTC, the storm made landfall about 30 mi (45 km) north of Belize City, and within 9 hours weakened into a tropical depression. The building ridge to the north caused the system to accelerate more to the west-northwest across the Yucatán peninsula. Early on October 4, Keith emerged into the Bay of Campeche, where favorable conditions allowed convection to quickly redevelop. Later that day, it re-intensified into a tropical storm, with improved outflow and convective organization. On October 5, the Hurricane Hunters reported a circular eye had reformed along with winds supporting an upgrade to hurricane status. Keith intensified further that day, until it made its final landfall 23 mi (37 km) north of Tampico with winds of 90 mph (150 km/h). It rapidly weakened over the high terrain of northeastern Mexico, dissipating late on October 6.

Preparations

On September 29, shortly after Keith formed, a hurricane watch was issued for the Yucatán peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche in Quintana Roo. The next day as Keith was nearing hurricane intensity, the watch was upgraded to a warning, and a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch was issued for the Belize coastline from Belize City to the Mexican border. At that time, the trajectory was expected to go more to the northwest, and when the storm turned to a slow westward drift, hurricane warnings were issued for the Belize coast with only about 24 hours of lead time for the offshore islands. The warnings for the Yucatán peninsula were dropped as Keith weakened. In Corozal, Belize, the authorities evacuated the entire city of 10,000 people to numerous shelters in Orange Walk. Nicaragua also had officials evacuate more than 300 people from low-lying areas. In Mexico, 5,000 people from Chetumal and surrounding low-lying areas were forced to evacuate.

When Keith reached the Gulf of Mexico and began re-intensifying, a hurricane warning was issued from Tuxpan to Matamoros in northeastern Mexico, with a tropical storm watch issued northward to Port Mansfield, Texas.

Impact

Keith was a very difficult hurricane to forecast. Its strength extremes and its stalling offshore Belize caused many problems to forecasters. This led to a deadly situation of waiting for the storm to finally recede.

Keith caused massive flooding over Belize and Mexico, as well as road destruction and landslides. The storm caused 40 direct deaths and an unknown amount of indirect deaths.

Belize

While Keith was offshore Belize, northerly winds blew water out of Bay of Chetumal. There were reports of people walking onto the temporarily dry bay floor, despite the potential for the waters to return in the event of shifting winds. At Caye Caulker, the hurricane produced a 4 ft (1.2 m) storm surge from the west. Winds were unofficially estimated to have reached 125 mph (205 km/h) in the offshore islands of Belize. Wind gusts on the mainland reached 61 mph (98 km/h) at Philip S. W. Goldson International Airport. Due to its slow motion, Keith dropped heavy rainfall, amounting to over 10 in (250 mm) in many parts of the country. The highest recorded precipitation total was 32.67 inches (830 mm) at the international airport in Belize City.

Belize City was inundated by four feet of water, losing services such as water supply and electricity. Twenty homes were damaged to some degree in the capital, while many more suffered minor roof damage. 40 homes in Caye Caulker were destroyed, while the remaining buildings lost phone connection and electricity in Caye Caulker and San Pedro, Belize. The lagoon area of San Pedro received the worst damage in the city. The local Texaco station was completely demolished. San Juan was spared, but the village of San Pedrito was significantly affected by Keith. Only twelve houses were reported to have stood up to the storm's wrath. The rest were flattened.

Five individuals died in maritime accidents involving at least one catamaran. An additional 14 people perished, likely due to flooding. Several injuries, mainly from flying debris, were reported in San Pedro. The major hurricane caused an estimated $280 million (2000 USD) in damage, most of it on the offshore Ambergris Cay and Caye Caulker.

Rest of Central America

While Keith was organizing, the storm drew moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean across Central America, producing heavy rainfall. In Guatemala, the rains caused flooding in ten towns, killing one person. Five of the fatalities in Honduras were the result of the disappearance of an aircraft near Roatan Island, and there was one other death in the country related to Keith. In El Salvador, a 20-year-old man drowned in a river and another 300 people were affected by flooding.

In Nicaragua, floods from the storm forced 371 people to evacuate their houses. A road was damaged near Managua. There were 12 fatalities due to the storm in Nicaragua, one of whom a 16-year-old boy in Nicaragua who was swept away by a fast moving flooded river. Thirteen communities in the country were completely isolated from the rest of the world after Keith made roads impassable.

Mexico

Hurricane Keith caused damage in three Mexican states – Quintana Roo along the Yucatán peninsula, Tamaulipas where the hurricane made landfall, and Sonora farther inland. In Quintana Roo, Keith left $2.7 million (2000 MXN, $294,000 2000 USD) in damage, and caused an additional $39.7 million (2000 MXN, $4.2 million 2000 USD) in indirect costs. While crossing the Yucatán peninsula, Keith dropped heavy rainfall, including over 10 in (250 mm) in Campeche state. Chetumal, Quintana Roo reported 9.65 in (245 mm) of precipitation.

When Keith made its final landfall, Tampico reported tropical storm force winds, with gusts to 63 mph (102 km/h). Heavy rainfall occurred in the interior of northeastern Mexico, peaking at 24.55 in (624 mm) in González, Tamaulipas. In a reporting station in the municipality of Gómez Farías, the pluviometer reported a 24-hour rain total of 13.24 in (336.5 mm), and a storm total of 18.44 in (468.5 mm), which broke the precipitation record for that location, which counted with 35 years of data. This rain also caused rivers to reach record levels, as the Sabinas River rose 10.95 m (35.93 ft) on October 6, to a new historical peak, and the Guayalejo River rose 77.46 ft (23.61 m), slightly under the 1976 record. This rainfall caused the Las Ánimas dam to catch 525,000 acre-feet (648,000,000 m) of water between October 5 and October 17; however, some of this water had to be released, as the upstream face of the dam was damaged by debris, and had to be repaired. Overall, the storm produced $117.8 million in damage (2000 MXN, $12.4 million 2000 USD) in the state.

In Nuevo León, the remnants of Keith interacted with a cold front to produce heavy rainfall, reaching 14.43 in (367 mm) in Sabinas. The average precipitation in the state was 5 in (120 mm), and the deluge caused causing mudslides in several cities, including San Pedro, Guadalupe and Escobedo. High rainfall also caused flash flood in mountainous areas near Monterrey, forming swift river currents that rose up to 9,000 ft³/s (250 m³/s), and dragged 130 people into local rivers; however, all were rescued. The rivers also dragged 30 vehicles, all of which were moderate to total losses. The storm runoff caused the El Cuchillo dam to receive 105,000 acre-feet (130,000,000 m) of water daily, and the La Boca dam to receive 810 acre-feet (1,000,000 m) per hour. About 13,000 residents lost power. About 5,000 people were forced evacuated from several municipalities in the state, including 2,465 from Monterrey and 1,900 from rural areas, at a cost of $400,000 (2000 MXN). The total damages in the state rose to $115.6 million (2000 MXN, US$12.2 million in year 2000), with the damage to urban infrastructure being the most expensive portion of the damage, with $44.2 million (2000 MXN, US$4.6 million in 2000) used to repair damage in eight municipalities; in particular, San Pedro Garza García received approximately three quarters of the infrastructure damage, with $30.8 million (2000 MXN, $3.3 million 2000 USD). Additionally, about 460 homes were damaged or destroyed, and 300 families had to be relocated to safer areas.

In other states, damage was lighter, but still significant. In Sonora, total damages rose to $64.4 million (2000 MXN, $6.8 million 2000 USD); in Chiapas, $25.6 million (2000 MXN, $2.7 million 2000 USD) of property damage were caused by the storm. This brings up the total damage in Mexico to $365.9 million (2000 MXN, $38.7 million 2000 USD). There was one death in Mexico.

Aftermath

Several emergency teams were sent to Caye Caulker and San Pedro in Belize as soon as weather conditions permitted it. Widespread road repairs also began almost immediately after Keith's occurrence. The Belize International Airport was back online by the morning of October 4, only a single day after the severe tropical cyclone passed through the area. A donation account to help the relief effort, titled Hurricane Keith Relief Fund, was set up by the town of Placencia, in the local Atlantic Bank. The Belize Consulate in California also set up a donation fundraiser. Placencia also delivered a boat full of donated food, clothing, and building supplies to the San Pedro and Caye Caulker area.

United Nations Development Programme received $30,000 (2000 USD) from the Government of Norway to give immediate relief to the country of Belize. United Nations Children's Fund also gave out $150,000 for relief in areas not focused on by other relief groups. The Peace Corps, the Red Cross, and the United States Navy black hawk helicopters worked together to deliver rice, corn, sugar, salt, cooking oil, toilet paper, and medications to about 700 families in Bermuda Landings and adjacent isolated villages. The American Red Cross donated about $28,500 and 4,080 family hygiene kits. Between October and November 2000, the National Society distributed 5,289 food and hygiene parcels to 26,293 people in Belize City, Orange Walk, and Belmopan. Around that time, the Belize Red Cross Society (BRCS) distributed relief items to 4,622 victims in Belize City. The BRCS also shipped 2 containers with kitchen sets and water buckets for 1,600 families, donated by the German Red Cross.

The name Keith was retired in the spring of 2001 and will never again be used for a North Atlantic hurricane. The name was replaced with Kirk for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season.

See also

• List of retired Atlantic hurricane names
• List of Category 4 Atlantic hurricanes

References

1. ^ United Nations (November 30, 2000). "Belize: Assessment of the Damage Caused By Hurricane Keith, 2000". CEPAL. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 26, 2011. Retrieved 2011-05-26.
2. ^ Jack Beven (2001-01-21). Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Keith (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2013-05-25.
3. ^ Lixion Avila (2000-09-28). Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 1 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2013-05-25.
4. Jack Beven (2000-09-29). Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 2 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2013-05-25.
5. ^ Lixion Avila (2000-09-29). Tropical Storm Keith Discussion Number 5 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2013-05-25.
6. Jack Beven (2000-09-30). Tropical Storm Keith Discussion Number 6 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2013-05-25.
7. Lixion Avila (2000-09-30). Hurricane Keith Discussion Number 8 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2013-05-25.
8. Lixion Avila (2000-09-30). Hurricane Keith Discussion Number 9 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2013-05-25.
9. Richard Pasch (2000-10-01). Hurricane Keith Discussion Number 11 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2013-05-25.
10. James Franklin (2000-10-01). Hurricane Keith Discussion Number 13 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2013-05-25.
11. Jack Beven (2000-10-03). Tropical Storm Keith Discussion Number 18 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2013-05-25.
12. James Franklin (2000-10-03). Tropical Depression Keith Discussion Number 21 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2013-05-25.
13. Jack Beven (2000-10-04). Tropical Depression Keith Discussion Number 22 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2013-05-25.
14. James Franklin (2000-10-04). Tropical Storm Keith Discussion Number 25 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2013-05-25.
15. Lixion Avila (2000-10-05). Hurricane Keith Discussion Number 27 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2013-05-25.
16. Lixion Avila (2000-10-06). Tropical Depression Keith Discussion Number 31 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2013-05-25.
17. ^ "Caribbean: Hurricane Keith — Information Bulletin #1" (PDF). Red Cross. October 2, 2000. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 7, 2007. Retrieved 2011-05-26. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; September 7, 2009 suggested (help)
18. ^ Associated Press (October 2, 2000). "Sluggish Hurricane Keith swamps Central America with rain". CNN. Archived from the original on June 15, 2007. Retrieved 2007-12-16.
19. ^ Lawrimorea, Jay H.; Halpert, Michael S.; Bell, Gerald D.; Menne, Matthew J.; Lyon, Bradfield; C. Schnell, Russell; Gleason, Karin L.; Easterling, David R.; Thiaw, Wasil (2001). "Climate Assessment for 2000". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 82 (6): 1304–1304. Bibcode:2001BAMS...82.1304L. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<1304:CAF>2.3.CO;2.
20. Lixion Avila (2000-09-29). Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 4 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2013-05-25.
21. BBC (October 3, 2000). "Hurricane Keith batters Belize". BBC. Archived from the original on May 26, 2011. Retrieved 2011-05-26.
22. Government of Nicaragua (September 30, 2000). Nicaragua Inundaciones: Comunicado de Prensa #2 (Report) (in Spanish). ReliefWeb. Retrieved May 30, 2013.
23. PAHO (October 3, 2000). "Floods in Nicaragua, 3 October 2000, at 0600 hrs". Pan American Health Organization. Archived from the original on March 9, 2010. Retrieved 2011-05-26.
24. ^ Bitrán Bitrán; Daniel (2001). Impacto socioeconómico de los principales desastres ocurridos en la República Mexicana en el año 2000 (PDF) (in Template:Es icon) (1st ed.). Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres. ISBN 970-628-592-X. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2011-05-26. {{cite book}}: Invalid |display-authors=2 (help); Unknown parameter |author-separator= ignored (help); Unknown parameter |month= ignored (help)CS1 maint: unrecognized language (link)
25. David M. Roth (2013-03-06). Hurricane Keith - October 1-8, 2000 (Report). Weather Prediction Center. Retrieved 2013-05-30.
26. Destination Belize (2000). "2000: Hurricane Keith". Destination Belize. Archived from the original on April 26, 2009. Retrieved 2011-05-26.
27. PAHO (October 11, 2000). "The U.N. Response to Hurricane Keith Situation Update: October 11, 2000". Pan American Health Organization. Archived from the original on March 9, 2010. Retrieved 2011-05-26.
28. Stephanie Kriner; Olga Bellido de Luna (2000-10-11). Hurricane Keith Leaves Lingering Effects in Belize. DisasterRelief (Report). ReliefWeb. Retrieved 2013-05-30.{{cite report}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
29. Belize: Hurricane Keith Appeal No. 29/2000 Situation Report No. 2. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (Report). ReliefWeb. 2000-12-20. Retrieved 2013-05-30.
30. Tropical Cyclone Naming History and Retired Names (Report). National Hurricane Center. April 11, 2013. Retrieved May 28, 2013.
31. "Hurricane Season Begins Today". Realty Times. June 1, 2006. Retrieved May 28, 2013. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)

External links

• HPC Rainfall Page for Keith

v t e Tropical cyclones of the 2000 Atlantic hurricane season
Timeline
	TDOne TDTwo 3Alberto TDFour TSBeryl TSChris 1Debby TSErnesto TDNine 1Florence 1Gordon TSHelene 4Isaac 1Joyce 4Keith TSLeslie 2Michael TSNadine TSUnnamed
Category

• 2000 Atlantic hurricane season
• Category 4 Atlantic hurricanes
• Hurricanes in Belize
• Hurricanes in Guatemala
• Atlantic hurricanes in Mexico
• Retired Atlantic hurricanes
• 2000 in Mexico
• 2000 in Belize
• 2000 in Guatemala