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Zapad 2017 (Russian: «Запад-2017», Template:Lang-be) is a planned joint strategic military exercise of the armed forces of the Russian Federation and Belarus (the Union State) scheduled for 14—20 September 2017, to be held in Belarus and Russia′s Kaliningrad Oblast and other north-western areas. According to the information made public by the Defence Ministry of Belarus prior to the exercise, fewer than 13,000 personnel of the Union State are to take part in the military maneuvers, a number that does not trigger mandatory formal notification and invitation of observers under the OSCE′s Vienna Document. Western analysts, however, believed in July 2017 that the total number of Russian troops, security personnel and civilian officials to be involved in the broader war-games will range from 60,000 to 100,000, which would make them Russia′s largest since the Cold War. Since 2016, concerns have been voiced in a number of NATO countries over Russia′s suspected ulterior motives and objectives in connection with the exercise.

Background and advance information about the drills

See also: Exercise Zapad-81 and Zapad-99 exercise

Belarus is a member of Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Eurasian military alliance of some of the former USSR republics led by Russia; it chairs the bloc in 2017. The Zapad military drills is a scheduled activity that was meant to be held on alternate years, alternately in Russia and Belarus, pursuant to the agreement reached by presidents of the Russia and Belarus in September 2009. Zapad 2017 is the first Zapad exercise since 2013.

The plan of the exercise was approved by Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko on 20 March 2017: it envisaged two stages and its theme was defined as ″the use of groupings of troops (forces) in the interests of ensuring the military security of the Union State″. The number of troops to be involved, according to Belarusian Defense Minister Andrei Ravkov, would not to exceed the threshold stipulated by the 2011 Vienna Document — no more than 13,000 personnel; geographically, it would span from multiple locations in Belarus to the Kola Peninsula within Russia′s Arctic Circle. It was expected that some units of Russia′s 1st Guards Tank Army, which was reconstituted in 2014, as well as 25 Russian aircraft would take part in the exercise in Belarus. According to Western media reports in July 2017, the tank army′s task would be to establish a forward command post in western Belarus, and to hold exercises in training areas near the city of Brest. On 13 July 2017, the NATO-Russia Council convened in Brussels, in the course of which the two sides briefed each other on their upcoming drills: Zapad 2017 and NATO′s Exercise Trident Javelin 2017.

Observers from NATO have been invited to Zapad-2017 by both Belarus and Russia. The Belarusian foreign ministry said in mid-July 2017 that they had notified all the OSCE countries and intended to invite observers from a number of international organisations as well as from Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, Estonia, Sweden, and Norway. Also, Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko invited the U.S. delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.On 12 July 2017, in Vienna, Major-General Pavel Muraveiko, Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus, gave a detailed briefing on Zapad-2017 to the participants of the OSCE conference.

In mid-August, Lithuania said that it would send its military observers to the Zapad 2017 drills, in Belarus and Leningrad Oblast. Latvia, who previously, on 14 August, said it was still awaiting the relevant invitation from Russia, said it would send 3 observers, including its military attaché in Moscow, who was invited as an observer by Moscow. On 22 August, the Belarusian defence ministry said that observers from the UN, OSCE, NATO, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and International Committee of the Red Cross as well as from Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, Estonia, Sweden, and Norway had been invited to Zapad 2017.

Expert opinions and speculations prior to the drills

See also: Russo-Georgian War and Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation

Months prior to the Zapad 2017 exercise, NATO officials and Western military analysts began to speculate about the true number of troops to be involved as well as Russia′s possible objectives other than those publicly announced. Such speculations were based on what was perceived as Russia′s record of unannounced snap military exercises, and use of drills as a cover for military incursions, as well as a development of Russia′s military posture in the country′s western regions undertaken in 2016 that suggested plans for a protracted large-scale war. The theories mainly focused on Russia′s putative schemes to attack Ukraine and/or reinforce Russia′s military presence in Belarus with a view to further threatening Poland and Lithuania, or the Suwałki gap (the Lithuania–Poland border area) that is perceived by NATO strategists as vulnerable because of the geography. It was also suggested that the Union State created by Russia and Belarus in 1999 could be used by Russia as a legal cover to absorb Belarus.

On the other hand, Igor Sutyagin, a Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in London, suggested in August 2017 that the Zapad 2017 exercise was primarily meant as ″a show of force″, with the main rational purpose to ensure Moscow is capable of moving its troops around quickly through the vast terrain; he also noted that Russia′s military efforts were ″already overstretched″.

Reactions of NATO and Ukraine prior to the drills

See also: NATO–Russia relations and Enlargement of NATO

In the run-up to Zapad 2017, NATO and NATO member countries′ officials sounded their concern and called on Russia to allow inspections of the drills for the purposes of transparency. In July and August 2017, a number of NATO countries′ senior military officials such as U.S. general Raymond A. Thomas, commander of the United States Special Operations Command, Poland’s Deputy Defence Minister Michał Dworczyk, and Ben Hodges, commanding general, United States Army Europe, expressed their suspicion that the maneuvers might be used as a pretext to increase Russia’s military presence in Belarus and permanently deploy its troops there in a bid to counterbalance NATO's eastern reinforcement. On their part, Russia and Belarus maintained that Zapad 2017 was a scheduled event of strictly defensive nature, its scale being significantly smaller than NATO′s analogous drills.

On 20 June 2017, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg answering a question about the exercise said: ″We are going to follow and monitor the Zapad exercise area here closely, and all nations have the right to exercise their forces but it is important that nations, be it Belarus or Russia, exercise their forces that they do that in accordance with well established guidelines and agreements and international obligations and we have something called the Vienna document which outlines how exercises have to be notified and be subject to international inspections and we call on Russia and also Belarus to do that in accordance with the Vienna document so that we have transparency, predictability related to Zapad 2017. We are also working in the framework of the NATO-Russia Council to have more transparency, predictability, connected to military posture but also exercises, and that is always important but especially important now when we see more military presence along our borders in this region. It’s even more important to have transparency, international observation of exercises like Zapad.″

On 16 August 2017, the Ukrainian Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak told journalists: ″We are monitoring the situation. We are aware of all the movements of Russian troops along our border. We realize which threats may arise, and we are going to adequately respond to both the existing threats and the threats posed by the war game.”

Preparatory drills and logistical preparations

On 7 August 2017, Russia’s Northern Fleet, the most powerful of its four fleets, began special large-scale drills that were announced by Russian official media as a preparatory phase of the Zapad 2017 exercise; it was commanded directly by the commander-in-chief of the Russian Navy, Admiral Vladimir Korolev.

Officially billed by the Belarusian Defence Ministry as part of preparations for Zapad 2017, on 23 August 2017, Russia and Belarus began joint tactical aviation drills that involved redeployment of aircraft and helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces to Belarusian military airfields; among other things, landing on a motorway was to be practised.

On 15 August 2017, Russia′s military logistics units were announced to have started arriving in Belarus to make preparations for a joint special exercise scheduled for 21–25 August that would involve military units and logistics support organizations of the two countries′ armed forces as part of the preparation for Zapad 2017.

See also

References

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  49. Полторак заявил о готовности реагировать на угрозу вторжения РФ во время учений в Беларуси Ukrainian Independent Information Agency, 16 August 2017.
  50. На Северном флоте отработали задачи противоподводно-диверсионной обороны в рамках специального учения MoD of Russia, 9 August 2017.
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  56. В рамках подготовки учения Союзного государства "Запад- 2017" пройдет важное мероприятие с авиацией
  57. Военные штурмовики сядут сегодня на автодорогу в Беларуси
  58. Применение единой системы ПВО Союзного государства отработают на учениях в Белоруссии Interfax, 23 August 2017.
  59. В преддверии учений «Запад-2017» белорусская и российская авиация отработают посадку на аэродромный участок дороги
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  61. Белорусские и российские военные начали отрабатывать вопросы технического обеспечения Belsat TV, 21 August 2017.
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