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2018 Ontario general election

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Graphic of a globe with a red analog clockThis article documents a current election. Information may change rapidly as the event progresses, and initial news reports may be unreliable. The latest updates to this article may not reflect the most current information. Feel free to improve this article or discuss changes on the talk page, but please note that updates without valid and reliable references will be removed. (June 2018) (Learn how and when to remove this message)

Ontario general election, 2018

← 2014 June 7, 2018 (2018-06-07) 2022 →
← outgoing memberselected members →

124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout58.4% (Increase7.1pp)
  First party Second party
  File:Ford with supporter (cropped).jpg
Leader Doug Ford Andrea Horwath
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since March 10, 2018 March 7, 2009
Leader's seat Etobicoke North Hamilton Centre
Last election 28 seats, 31.25% 21 seats, 23.75%
Seats before 27 18
Seats won 76 40
Seat change Increase49 Increase22
Popular vote 2,324,742 1,925,512
Percentage 40.50% 33.56%
Swing Increase9.25pp Increase9.81pp

  Third party Fourth party
 
Leader Kathleen Wynne Mike Schreiner
Party Liberal Green
Leader since January 26, 2013 May 16, 2009
Leader's seat Don Valley West Guelph
Last election 58 seats, 38.65% 0 seats, 4.84%
Seats before 55 0
Seats won 7 1
Seat change Decrease48 Increase1
Popular vote 1,124,381 264,094
Percentage 19.59% 4.60%
Swing Decrease19.06pp Decrease0.24pp

Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed at the bottom.

Premier before election

Kathleen Wynne
Liberal

Premier-designate

Doug Ford
Progressive Conservative

The 42nd Ontario general election was held on June 7, 2018, to elect the 124 members of the 42nd Parliament of Ontario. The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario, led by Doug Ford, won a majority government. The Ontario New Democratic Party, led by Andrea Horwath, formed the Official Opposition. The Ontario Liberal Party, led by incumbent Premier Kathleen Wynne, lost official party status in recording both the worst result in their party's 161-year history and the worst result for any incumbent governing party in Ontario. The Green Party of Ontario won a seat for the first time in its history, while the Trillium Party of Ontario lost their only seat held during the 41st Parliament of Ontario.

Background

Redistribution of seats

The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015, which received royal assent on December 3, 2015, increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.

The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016, recommended the creation of the additional districts of Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay, carved out from the existing Kenora—Rainy River and Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124. This was implemented through the Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017.

The new districts have been criticized as undemocratic, as they have a population of around 30,000 people compared with over 120,000 people in some southern Ontario constituencies. National Post columnist Josh Dehaas suggested that the small population sizes of the ridings might violate the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

In September 2017, a research firm analyzed the impact of redistribution if the boundaries had been in effect for the previous election:

2014 Ontario election results transposed to ridings for 2018 election
Party Size of lead Totals
> 20 pp 10-20 pp < 10 pp vs Liberal < 10 pp vs PC < 10 pp vs NDP 3-way race
Liberal 26 24 8 4 7 69
Progressive Conservative 9 8 13 1 1 32
New Democratic 14 4 4 1 23
Totals 49 36 17 8 5 9 124
  1. less than a 10 pp lead, but 3rd place is within 15 pp of 1st place

Change of fixed election date

Under legislation passed in 2005, Ontario elections were to be held on "the first Thursday in October in the fourth calendar year following polling day in the most recent general election", subject to the Lieutenant-Governor of Ontario's power to call an election earlier. As the current government had a majority, the passage of a non-confidence motion was not a likely option for calling an early election, though Premier Kathleen Wynne stated in June 2015 that she would likely advise to dissolve the Legislature in spring 2018 rather than in October of that year in order to avoid any conflict with municipal elections and take advantage of better weather and longer days.

To put this on a statutory footing, in October 2016 Attorney General of Ontario Yasir Naqvi introduced a bill in the Legislative Assembly which, in part, included moving the election date to "the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following polling day in the most recent general election", and it came into effect in December 2016.

Candidate nominations

In February 2018, the PC leadership overturned the nomination of candidates Karma Macgregor in Ottawa West—Nepean and Thenusha Parani in Scarborough Centre because of irregularities and allegations of ballot stuffing at their nomination meetings. Both candidates denied these claims. The nomination meetings were reorganized, and both candidates lost the nomination at those meetings. However, the PC leadership decided not to overturn the nomination meeting's result in Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas, where a similar situation took place, because of an ongoing police investigation on this situation.

In March 2018, the NDP nominated Lyra Evans as their candidate in Ottawa-Vanier. Evans is the first openly transgender candidate nominated by a major party to run in an Ontario general election.

Prelude to campaign

The Ontario Liberal Party attempted to win their fifth consecutive general election, dating back to 2003. The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario won their first election since 1999, and the Ontario New Democratic Party attempted to win their second election (having previously won in 1990). Numerous other extra-parliamentary political parties also vied for votes.

The Liberals under Kathleen Wynne headed into the 2018 campaign trailing far behind the Progressive Conservatives, led by former Toronto City Councillor Doug Ford. In early April, the CBC published their analysis of aggregate polls showing that Ford and the Progressive Conservatives were ahead of the other parties averaging 42.1% support, compared to 27.2% for the governing Liberals, 23.4% for the NDP and 5.7% for the Greens and with 11 Liberal MPPs announcing they would not be running for re-election or having already resigned their seats in the months leading up to the election.

According to Wynne, voters were offered a "stark choice", between "cutting and removing supports from people" with "billions in cuts", which she alleged the Progressive Conservatives would do if they won the election, and expanding investments in social programs such as prescription drugs and childcare, which the Liberal platform promised.

In March 2018, the Liberals tabled a pre-election budget in the provincial legislature which promised billions of dollars in new spending for free childcare and expanded coverage for dental care but replaced the government's previous balanced budget with a $6.7 billion deficit projected to last until 2024–2025. PC leader Doug Ford called the budget a "spending spree".

Results

Preliminary Results of the 42nd Ontario General Election
Party Party leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2014 Dissol. 2018 Change # % Change
Progressive Conservative Doug Ford 124 28 27 76 +49 2,324,742 40.50% +9.25
New Democratic Andrea Horwath 124 21 18 40 +22 1,926,512 33.56% +9.81
Liberal Kathleen Wynne 124 58 55 7 -48 1,124,381 19.59% -19.06
Green Mike Schreiner 124 - - 1 +1 264,094 4.60% -0.24
Libertarian Allen Small 117 - - - - 42,928 0.75% -0.06
None of the Above Greg Vezina 42 - - - - 16,191 0.28% +0.19
Trillium Bob Yaciuk 26 - 1 0 -1 8,186 0.14% +0.13
Northern Ontario Trevor Holliday 10 - - - - 5,804 0.10% +0.08
Consensus Ontario Brad Harness 10 - - - - 2,684 0.05% +0.05
Freedom Paul McKeever 14 - - - - 2,567 0.04% -0.22
Ontario Party Jason Tysick 5 - - - - 2,310 0.04% +0.04
Moderate Yuri Duboisky 16 - - - - 2,194 0.04% +0.03
Communist Dave McKee 12 - - - - 1,471 0.03% -0.02
Canadians' Choice Party Bahman Yazdanfar 5 - - - - 1,234 0.02% -0.01
Stop the New Sex-Ed Agenda Queenie Yu 3 - - - - 1,078 0.02% +0.02
Ontario Alliance William Cook 4 - - - - 804 0.01% +0.01
New People's Choice Party Daryl Christoff 3 - - - - 633 0.01% +0.01
Special Needs Hilton Milan 5 - - - - 631 0.01% -
People's Political Party Kevin Clarke 6 - - - - 626 0.01% -0.01
Confederation of Regions vacant 2 - - - - 386 0.01% -
Stop Climate Change Ken Ranney 2 - - - - 342 0.01% +0.01
Go Vegan Paul Figueiras 2 - - - - 256 <0.01% -
Social Reform Party Abu Alam 2 - - - - 238 <0.01% -
Cultural Action Party Arthur Smitherman 3 - - - - 215 <0.01% -
Party of Objective Truth Derrick Matthews 2 - - - - 212 <0.01% -
Multicultural Party of Ontario Wasyl Luczkiw 2 - - - - 191 <0.01% -
Canadian Economic Party Patrick Knight 2 - - - - 151 <0.01% -
Pauper John Turmel 2 - - - - 111 <0.01% -
  Independents and no affiliation 32 - 2 0 -2 8,662 0.15% +0.07
  Vacant 4
Total 825 107 107 124

Events leading up to the election (2014–2018)

Seat changes

41st Legislative Assembly of Ontario - Movement in seats held from 2014 to 2018
Party 2014 Gain/(loss) due to 2018
Resignation By-election hold By-election gain Expulsion
Liberal 58 -5 1 1 55
Progressive Conservative 28 -3 3 2 -3 27
New Democratic 21 -3 18
Trillium 1 1
Independent 2 2
Vacant 4 4
Total 107 (7) 4 3 107
Changes in seats held (2014–2018)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Sudbury November 20, 2014 Joe Cimino █ New Democratic Resignation February 5, 2015 Glenn Thibeault █ Liberal
Simcoe North August 1, 2015 Garfield Dunlop █ PC Resignation September 3, 2015 Patrick Brown █ PC
Whitby—Oshawa August 28, 2015 Christine Elliott █ PC Resignation February 11, 2016 Lorne Coe █ PC
Scarborough—Rouge River March 22, 2016 Bas Balkissoon █ Liberal Resignation September 1, 2016 Raymond Cho █ PC
Ottawa—Vanier June 30, 2016 Madeleine Meilleur █ Liberal Resignation November 17, 2016 Nathalie Des Rosiers █ Liberal
Niagara West—Glanbrook September 16, 2016 Tim Hudak █ PC Resignation November 17, 2016 Sam Oosterhoff █ PC
Sault Ste. Marie December 31, 2016 David Orazietti █ Liberal Resignation June 1, 2017 Ross Romano █ PC
Carleton—Mississippi Mills May 28, 2017 Jack MacLaren █ PC Expulsion █ Trillium
Toronto Centre September 1, 2017 Glen Murray █ Liberal Resignation █ Vacant
Bramalea—Gore—Malton October 20, 2017 Jagmeet Singh █ New Democratic Resignation █ Vacant
Parkdale—High Park December 31, 2017 Cheri DiNovo █ New Democratic Resignation █ Vacant
Simcoe North February 16, 2018 Patrick Brown █ PC Expulsion █ Independent
St. Paul's February 26, 2018 Eric Hoskins █ Liberal Resignation █ Vacant
Kitchener-Conestoga April 9, 2018 Michael Harris █ PC Expulsion █ Independent

Other developments

Date
June 12, 2014 The Liberal Party under Kathleen Wynne wins a majority government in the 41st Ontario general election. Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak announces his intention to step down following the selection of his successor.
July 2, 2014 Tim Hudak resigns as leader of the Progressive Conservatives. Simcoe—Grey MPP Jim Wilson is named interim leader.
July 24, 2014 The Liberals pass their May 1 budget in its final reading.
May 9, 2015 Patrick Brown, the Conservative federal MP for Barrie, is elected leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.
September 24, 2015 Ontario Provincial Police lay charges in relation to the Sudbury by-election scandal.
November 1, 2016 Ontario Provincial Police announce charges under the provincial act against Gerry Lougheed and Patricia Sorbara (CEO and director of the 2018 Liberal campaign) for alleged bribery during a 2015 byelection. Sorbara announced that she will step down from the campaign.
January 24, 2018 CTV News reports that Progressive Conservative Party leader Patrick Brown is accused by two women of committing sexual misconduct. Brown denies the allegations.
January 25, 2018 Patrick Brown resigns as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.
January 26, 2018 Progressive Conservative Party caucus chooses Nipissing MPP Vic Fedeli as interim leader.
March 10, 2018 Doug Ford is elected leader of the Progressive Conservatives on the third ballot of the party's leadership election. Fedeli continues as Leader of the Opposition for legislative purposes until the election due to Ford not having a seat in the Legislature.
April 11, 2018 First Leaders Debate hosted by the Jamaican Canadian Association. Andrea Horwath, Mike Schreiner, and Premier Kathleen Wynne were in attendance. Doug Ford chose not to attend.
April 16, 2018 The Ontario NDP release their full election platform.
May 7, 2018 First televised debate hosted by CityNews: Toronto-focused debate with Ford, Horwath and Wynne
May 9, 2018 Electoral Writ issued.
May 11, 2018 Leaders' debate in Parry Sound.
May 17, 2018 Candidate nominations close at 2 PM local time.
May 26, 2018 Advance voting starts at voting locations and returning offices.
May 27, 2018 Second televised debate, moderated by Steve Paikin and Farah Nasser, held at the Canadian Broadcasting Centre in Toronto and aired on CBC, CTV, Global, TVO, CPAC, CHCH and other outlets. Attended by Wynne, Ford, and Horwath.
May 30, 2018 Advance voting ends at advance voting locations.
June 1, 2018 Advance voting ends at returning offices.
June 2, 2018 Premier Wynne concedes that the Liberals will not win the election.
June 6, 2018 Special ballot voting at returning office or through home visit ends at 6:00 PM EST.
June 7, 2018 Election day. Fixed-date of the 2018 provincial election.

Campaign period

Issues

2018 Ontario election - issues and respective party platforms
Issue Liberal PC NDP
Spending
  • Standing by its last budget's assertion of six consecutive deficits, with a return to balance in 2024-25
  • The Province will have a deficit in the government's first year. Based on Ford's campaign promises, economists estimate there will be five consecutive deficits between $8 billion and $6 billion.
  • An audit will be conducted into the previous government's spending
  • There will be five consecutive deficits of between $5-billion and $2-billion
Taxation
  • Proceed with last budget's simplification of rate structure for personal income tax
  • Maintain corporate income tax at present rate of 11.5%
  • Corporate income tax to be reduced from 11.5% to 10.5%
  • Phase out income tax entirely for minimum-wage earners but cancel the $1 increase to minimum wage slated for 2019
  • Repeal the present cap and trade program
  • Oppose federally mandated carbon pricing
  • Reduce income tax rates
  • Reduce the small business income tax rate
  • Raise corporate tax rate from 11.5% to 13%
  • Ontarians earning more than $300,000 would see their tax rates rise by two percentage points, or one percentage point for those earning more than $220,000
Education
  • Modernize the curriculum and assessment of schools, from kindergarten to grade 12
  • $3-billion in capital grants over 10 years to post-secondary institutions
  • $16-billion in spending over 10 years on infrastructure and repairs at Ontario's schools
  • Cap kindergarten class sizes at 26 students
  • Abolish standardized EQAO testing
  • Give OSAP-qualified students non-repayable grants instead of loans
  • Remove interest off existing student loans and apply interest that has already been paid to the loan principal
Child care
  • Free child care for all Ontarians aged two-and-a-half to junior kindergarten age, regardless of income
  • A sliding scale of tax rebates, providing up to $6,750 per child under 15 and giving low-income families as much as 75 per cent of their child-care costs
  • Income-based scale for child care:
    • Free child care for families earning under $40,000 annually
    • Average of $12 per day cost for those making over $40,000
Transit and infrastructure
Hydro
  • Standing by its 2017 plan to defer rate increases through current borrowing
  • Will proceed to sell the Province's remaining 60% interest in Hydro One
  • Cut rates by 12%, over and above the Liberals' current 25% reduction
Environment
  • Divert at least 25% of cap-and-trade revenue to help northern, rural and low-income Ontarians adapt to a lower-carbon lifestyle
  • Spend $50-million on a home-efficiency retrofit program.

Party slogans

Party English French Translation of French (unofficial)
█ Liberal ”Care over cuts”
█ PC "For the People"
█ New Democratic "Change for the better" "Changeons pour le mieux" Let's change for the better
█ Green "People Powered Change"
█ Libertarian "The Party of Choice"

Incumbents not running for reelection

Electoral District Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent nominee New MPP
Brant (now Brantford-Brant)   Dave Levac Ruby Toor   Will Bouma
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell   Grant Crack Pierre Leroux   Amanda Simard
Guelph   Liz Sandals Sly Castaldi   Mike Schreiner
Kenora—Rainy River   Sarah Campbell Glen Archer   Greg Rickford
Kitchener-Conestoga   Michael Harris   Mike Harris Jr.
London North Centre   Deb Matthews Kate Graham   Terence Kernaghan
Markham-Unionville   Michael Chan Amanda Yeung Collucci   Billy Pang
Mississauga—Erindale   Harinder Takhar Riding to be dissolved
Pickering-Scarborough East   Tracy MacCharles Riding to be dissolved
Scarborough Centre   Brad Duguid Mazhar Shafiq   Christina Mitas
Simcoe North   Patrick Brown   Jill Dunlop
Welland (now Niagara Centre)   Cindy Forster Jeff Burch   Jeff Burch
York Centre   Monte Kwinter Ramon Estaris   Roman Baber
York—Simcoe   Julia Munro Caroline Mulroney   Caroline Mulroney
York West (now Humber River—Black Creek)   Mario Sergio Deanna Sgro   Tom Rakocevic

Mood of the voters

According to Toronto Star columnist Susan Delacourt, voters were motivated by a desire for change—such desire being more driven by emotion than by ideology—and one researcher estimated that more than half of the electorate was undecided in who they were likely to vote for. The Huffington Post reported that half of voters were basing their vote intentions on how best to block the party they oppose.

Endorsements

Endorsements received by each party
Type Liberal PC NDP Green No endorsement
Media
  • Toronto Star (Riding of Guelph only)
Politicians and public figures
Unions and business associations
  • Ontario Convenience Stores Association
  • Ottawa Police Association
  • United Steelworkers Local 2251

Candidates by region

◊ = Not seeking re-election
‡ = Running for re-election in different riding
Source: Elections Ontario Bolded candidates represent party leaders

East

Ottawa

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal PC NDP Green Libertarian NOTA Others
Carleton Theresa Qadri Goldie Ghamari Courtney Potter Gordan Kubanek Jean-Serge Brisson Evan Nightingale Mark Dickson (Ind.)
Kevin Harris (CAP)
Jay Tysick (Ont.)
New District
Kanata—Carleton Stephanie Maghnam Merrilee Fullerton John Hansen Andrew West Peter D'Entremont Robert LeBrun Jack MacLaren (T) Jack MacLaren
Carleton—Mississippi Mills
Nepean Lovina Srivastava Lisa MacLeod Zaff Ansari James O'Grady Mark Snow Raphael Louis Derrick Matthews (POT) Lisa MacLeod
Nepean—Carleton
Orléans Marie-France Lalonde Cameron Montgomery Barbara Zarboni Nicholas Lapierre Gerald Bourdeau Samuel Schwisberg (Ind.) Marie-France Lalonde
Ottawa—Orléans
Ottawa Centre Yasir Naqvi Colleen McCleery Joel Harden Cherie Wong Bruce Faulkner Marc Adornato Stuart Ryan (Comm.)
James Sears (CCP)
Yasir Naqvi
Ottawa South John Fraser Karin Howard Eleanor Fast Les Schram Robert Daigneault Larry Wasslen (Comm.) John Fraser
Ottawa—Vanier Nathalie Des Rosiers Fadi Nemr Lyra Evans Sheilagh McLean Ken Lewis Keegan Bennett David McGruer (FPO) Nathalie Des Rosiers
Ottawa West—Nepean Bob Chiarelli Jeremy Roberts Chandra Pasma Pat Freel Nicholas Paliga Colin Pritchard Bob Chiarelli

Eastern Ontario

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal PC NDP Green Libertarian Other
Bay of Quinte Robert Quaiff Todd Smith Joanne Bélanger Mark Daye Cindy Davidson Paul Bordonaro (Ind.)
James Engelsman (T)
Todd Smith
Prince Edward—Hastings
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Pierre Leroux Amanda Simard Bonnie Jean-Louis Daniel Reid Darcy Donnelly Joël Charbonneau (Ont.) Grant Crack
Hastings—Lennox and Addington Tim Rigby Daryl Kramp Nate Smelle Sari Watson Greg Scholfield Lonnie Herrington (T) New District
Kingston and the Islands Sophie Kiwala Gary Bennett Ian Arthur Robert Kiley Heather Cunningham Andre Imbeault (T) Sophie Kiwala
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Amanda Pulker-Mok Randy Hillier Ramsey Hart Anita Payne Steve Gebhardt John McEwen (Ind.) Randy Hillier
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes David Henderson Steve Clark Michelle Taylor Derek Morley Bill Buckley Steve Clark
Leeds—Grenville
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Jackie Agnew John Yakabuski Ethel LaValley Anna Dolan Jesse Wood Murray Reid (CoR) John Yakabuski
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Heather Megill Jim McDonell Marc Benoit Elaine Kennedy Sabile Trimm Jim McDonell

Central Ontario

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal PC NDP Green Libertarian Other
Barrie—Innisfil Ann Hoggarth Andrea Khanjin Pekka Reinio Bonnie North Brett Dorion Alexander Ryzhykh(Mod.)
Stacey Surkova (T)
Jake Tucker (CCP)
Ann Hoggarth
Barrie
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Jeff Kerk Doug Downey Dan Janssen Keenan Aylwin Mark Mitchell Ram Faerber (Ind.)
Darren Roskam (NOTA)
Michael Tuck (Ind.)
New District
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Francesca Dobbyn Bill Walker Karen Gventer Don Marshall Jay Miller Janice Kaikkonen (CO)
Enos Martin (All.)
Liz Marshall (T)
Bill Walker
Dufferin—Caledon Bob Gordanier Sylvia Jones Andrea Mullarkey Laura Campbell Jeff Harris Stephen McKendrick (CO)
Andrew Nowell (T)
Sylvia Jones
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Brooklynne Cramp-Waldinsperger Laurie Scott Zac Miller Lynn Therien Gene Balfour Chuck MacMillan (CO)
Thomas Rhyno (NOTA)
Laurie Scott
Northumberland—Peterborough South Lou Rinaldi David Piccini Jana Papuckoski Jeff Wheeldon John O'Keefe Paul Cragg (SCC)
Derek Sharp (T)
Lou Rinaldi
Northumberland—Quinte West
Peterborough—Kawartha Jeff Leal Dave Smith Sean Conway Gianne Broughton Jacob Currier Ken Ranney (SCC)
Robert Roddick (T)
Jeff Leal
Peterborough
Simcoe—Grey Dan Hambly Jim Wilson David Matthews Jesseca Perry John Wright Jim Wilson
Simcoe North Gerry Marshall Jill Dunlop Elizabeth Van Houtte Valerie Powell Cynthia Sneath Patrick Brown
York—Simcoe Loralea Carruthers Caroline Mulroney Dave Szollosy Alexandra Zalucky Ioan Silviu Druma-Strugariu Franco Colavecchia (Mod.) Julia Munro

905 Belt

Durham and York

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal PC NDP Green Libertarian Other
Ajax Joe Dickson Rod Phillips Monique Hughes Stephen Leahy Marsha Haynes Kevin Brackley (Ind.)
Frank Lopez (NOTA)
Joe Dickson
Ajax—Pickering
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Naheed Yaqubian Michael Parsa Katrina Sale Stephanie Duncan Serge Korovitsyn Abu Alam (SRP)
Margarita Barsky (Mod.)
Jenusz Butylkin (FPO)
Santiago DeSilva (NOTA)
New District
Durham Granville Anderson Lindsey Park Joel Usher Michelle Corbett Ryan Robinson Granville Anderson
King—Vaughan Marilyn Iafrate Stephen Lecce Andrea Beal Greg Locke Yan Simkin Tatiana Babitch (Mod.)
Roman Evtukh (T)
New District
Markham—Stouffville Helena Jaczek Paul Calandra Kingsley Kwok Jose Etcheverry Paul Balfour Yuri Duboisky (Mod.) Helena Jaczek
Oak Ridges—Markham
Markham—Thornhill Juanita Nathan Logan Kanapathi Cindy Hackelberg Caryn Bergmann David Nadler Jeff Kuah (Ind.) New District
Markham—Unionville Amanda Yeung Collucci Billy Pang Sylvie David Deborah Moolman Allen Small Anastasia Afonina (Mod.) Michael Chan
Newmarket—Aurora Chris Ballard Christine Elliott Melissa Williams Michelle Bourdeau Lori Robbins Dorian Baxter (Ind.)
Denis Gorlynskiy (Mod.)
Denis Van Decker (NOTA)
Bob Yaciuk (T)
Chris Ballard
Oshawa Makini Smith Bob Chapman Jennifer French Deborah Ellis Jeanne Gory Cheryl Kelly (NOTA) Jennifer French
Pickering—Uxbridge Ibrahim Daniyal Peter Bethlenfalvy Nerissa Cariño Adam Narraway Brendan Reilly Netalia Duboisky (Mod.)
Michelle Francis (N/A)
William Myers (Ind.)
Eric Sivadas (Ind.)
Tracy MacCharles
Pickering—Scarborough East
Richmond Hill Reza Moridi Daisy Wai Marco Coletta Walter Bauer Igor Bily Reza Moridi
Thornhill Sabi Ahsan Gila Martow Ezra Tanen Rachel Dokhoian Mike Holmes Aleksei Polyakov (Mod.)
Above Znoneofthe (NOTA)
Gila Martow
Vaughan—Woodbridge Steven Del Duca Michael Tibollo Sandra Lozano Michael DiPasquale Paolo Fabrizio Steven Del Duca
Vaughan
Whitby Leisa Washington Lorne Coe Niki Lundquist Stacey Leadbetter Ronad Halabi Doug Thom (FPO) Lorne Coe
Whitby—Oshawa

Peel

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal PC NDP Green Libertarian NOTA Other
Brampton Centre Safdar Hussain Harjit Jaswal Sara Singh Laila Zarrabi Yan Andrew Hosie Mehdi Pakzad Bill Oprel (T) New District
Brampton East Parminder Singh Sudeep Verma Gurratan Singh Raquel Fronte Daniele Cerasoli Gurdeep Dhothar (T) Vacant
Bramalea—Gore—Malton
Brampton North Harinder Malhi Ripudaman Dhillon Kevin Yarde Pauline Thornham Gregory Argue Harinder Malhi
Brampton—Springdale
Brampton South Sukhwant Thethi Prabmeet Sarkaria Paramjit Gill Lindsay Falt Brian Watson John Grant (T)
Ted Harlson (FPO)
New District
Brampton West Vic Dhillon Amarjot Sandhu Jagroop Singh Julie Guillemet-Ackerman David Shaw Surjit Sahota (Comm.) Vic Dhillon
Mississauga Centre Bobbie Daid Natalia Kusendova Laura Kaminker Noah Gould Farouk Giga Viktor Chornopyskyy (Mod.)
Alex Pacis (SNSEA)
New District
Mississauga East—Cooksville Dipika Damerla Kaleed Rasheed Tom Takacs Basia Krzyzanowski Mark Donaldson Leonard Little Mykola Ponomarenko (Mod.) Dipika Damerla
Mississauga—Erin Mills Imran Mian Sheref Sabawy Farina Hassan Libby Yuill Pieter Liem Grzegorz Nowacki Ben Skura (FPO) Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Erindale
Mississauga—Lakeshore Charles Sousa Rudy Cuzzetto Boris Rosolak Lloyd Jones Jay Ward Kenny Robinson Felicia Trigiani (Vegan) Charles Sousa
Mississauga South
Mississauga—Malton Amrit Mangat Deepak Anand Nikki Clarke Eryn Sylvester Michelle Ciupka Alex Vezina Caroline Roach (Ind.) Amrit Mangat
Mississauga—Brampton South
Mississauga—Streetsville Bob Delaney Nina Tangri Jacqueline Gujarati Abhijeet Manay Richard Levesque Greg Vezina Bob Delaney

Toronto

Scarborough

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal PC NDP Green Libertarian Trillium Other
Scarborough—Agincourt Soo Wong Aris Babikian Tasleem Riaz Lydia West Mark Sinclair Carlos Lacuna Rubina Ansary (Mod.)
Jude Coutinho (Ind.)
Badih Rawdah (P)
Soo Wong
Scarborough Centre Mazhar Shafiq Christina Mitas Zeyd Bismilla Sanjin Zeco Matthew Dougherty Chris Mellor Brad Duguid
Scarborough—Guildwood Mitzie Hunter Roshan Nallaratnam Tom Packwood Linda Rice Hamid-Reza Dehnad-Tabatabaei George Garvida Heather Dunbar (P)
Benjamin Mbaegbu (N/A)
Wanda Ryan (PSN)
Mitzie Hunter
Scarborough North Chin Lee Raymond Cho Dwayne Morgan Nicole Peltier Sean Morgan Raymond Cho
Scarborough—Rouge River
Scarborough—Rouge Park Sumi Shan Vijay Thanigasalam Felicia Samuel Priyan De Silva Todd Byers Amit Pitamber New District
Scarborough Southwest Lorenzo Berardinetti Gary Ellis Doly Begum David Del Grande James Speirs Bobby Turley Allen Atkinson (NOTA)
Willie Little (PSN)
Lorenzo Berardinetti

North York and North Toronto

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal PC NDP Green Libertarian Other
Don Valley East Michael Coteau Denzil Minnan-Wong Khalid Ahmed Mark Wong Justin Robinson Wayne Simmons (FPO) Michael Coteau
Don Valley North Shelley Carroll Vincent Ke Akil Sadikali Janelle Yanishewski Sarah Matthews Alexander Verstraten (NOTA) New District
Don Valley West Kathleen Wynne Jon Kieran Amara Possian Morgan Bailey John Kittredge Patrick Knight (CEP) Kathleen Wynne
Eglinton—Lawrence Michael Colle Robin Martin Robyn Vilde Reuben DeBoer Michael Staffieri Lionel Poizner (T) Michael Colle
Willowdale David Zimmer Stan Cho Saman Tabasinejad Randi Ramdeen Catherine MacDonald-Robertson Birinder Ahluwalia (Ind.) David Zimmer
York Centre Ramon Estaris Roman Baber Andrea Vásquez Jiménez Roma Lyon Benjamin Kamminga Cherie Ann Day (NOTA)
Alexander Leonov (Mod.)
Monte Kwinter

Toronto and East York

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal PC NDP Green Libertarian Other
Beaches—East York Arthur Potts Sarah Mallo Rima Berns-McGown Debra Scott Thomas Armstrong Andrew Balodis (Ind.)
Eric Brazau (CAP)
Tony Chipman (P)
Regina Mundrugo (PSN)
Joe Ring (NOTA)
Bahman Yazdanfar (CCP)
Arthur Potts
Davenport Cristina Martins Federico Sanchez Marit Stiles Kirsten Snider Nunzio Venuto Franz Cauchi (FPO)
Chai Kalevar (N/A)
Dave McKee (Comm.)
Troy J. Young (P)
Cristina Martins
Parkdale—High Park Nadia Guerrera Adam Pham Bhutila Karpoche Halyna Zalucky Matthias Nunno Jay Watts (Comm.) Vacant
Spadina—Fort York Han Dong Iris Yu Chris Glover Rita Bilerman Erik Malmholt Adam Nobody (NOTA)
Queenie Yu (SNSA)
Han Dong
Trinity—Spadina
Toronto Centre David Morris Meredith Cartwright Suze Morrison Adam Sommerfeld Judi Falardeau Kevin Clarke (P)
Wanda Fountain (CEP)
Cameron James (NPCP)
Dan King (PSN)
Theresa Snell (SNSA)
Vacant
Toronto—Danforth Li Koo Patricia Kalligosfyris Peter Tabuns Andrew Trotter Paul Layton Ivan Byard (Comm.)
John Kladitis (Ind.)
John Richardson (Ind.)
Peter Tabuns
Toronto—St. Paul's Jess Spindler Andrew Kirsch Jill Andrew Teresa Pun Jekiah Dunavant Marina Doshchitsina (Mod.) Vacant
St. Paul's
University—Rosedale Jo-Ann Davis Gillian Smith Jessica Bell Tim Grant Ryan Swim Daryl Christoff (NPCP)
Paulo Figueiras (Vegan)
Doug MacLeod (Ind.)
Hilton Milan (PSN)
New District

Etobicoke and York

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal PC NDP Green Libertarian Other
Etobicoke Centre Yvan Baker Kinga Surma Erica Kelly Shawn Rizvi Basil Mummery Paul Fromm (CCP)
Wallace Richards (Ind.)
Yvan Baker
Etobicoke—Lakeshore Peter Milczyn Christine Hogarth Phil Trotter Chris Caldwell Mark Wrzesniewski Ian Lytvyn (Mod.) Peter Milczyn
Etobicoke North Shafiq Qaadri Doug Ford Mahamud Amin Nancy Kaur Ghuman Brianne Lefebvre Shafiq Qaadri
Humber River—Black Creek Deanna Sgro Cyma Musarat Tom Rakocevic Kirsten Bennett Jennifer Ochoa Scott Aitchison (CO)
Lucy Guerrero (T)
Mario Sergio
York West
York South—Weston Laura Albanese Mark DeMontis Faisal Hassan Grad Murray Bonnie Hu Laura Albanese

Hamilton, Halton and Niagara

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal PC NDP Green Libertarian NOTA Other
Burlington Eleanor McMahon Jane McKenna Andrew Drummond Vince Fiorito Jim Gilchrist Nadine Bentham Peter Rusin (CO) Eleanor McMahon
Flamborough—Glanbrook Judi Partridge Donna Skelly Melissa McGlashan Janet Errygers Glenn Langton Rudy Miller Roman Sarachman (T) New District
Hamilton Centre Deirdre Pike Dionne Duncan Andrea Horwath Jason Lopez Robert Young Tony Lemma Maria Anastasiou (Ind.)
Mary Ellen Campbell (Comm.)
Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Jennifer Stebbing Akash Grewal Paul Miller Brian Munroe Allan DeRoo Linda Chenoweth Lucina Monroy (NPCP) Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain Damin Starr Esther Pauls Monique Taylor David Urquhart Kristofer Maves Scott Miller Monique Taylor
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Ted McMeekin Ben Levitt Sandy Shaw Peter Ormond Nicholas Dushko Stephanie Davies Jim Enos (Ind.) Ted McMeekin
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale
Milton Indira Naidoo-Harris Parm Gill Brendan Smyth Eleanor Hayward Benjamin Cunningham Enam Ahmed (SRP) Indira Naidoo-Harris
Halton
Niagara Centre Benoit Mercier April Jeffs Jeff Burch Joe Dias Patrick Pietruszko Joe Crawford Dario Smagata-Bryan (P)
Steven Soos (Ind.)
Cindy Forster
Welland
Niagara Falls Dean Demizio Chuck McShane Wayne Gates Karen Fraser Shaun Somers Goran Zubic (Mod.) Wayne Gates
Niagara West Joe Kanee Sam Oosterhoff Curtis Fric Jessica Tillmanns Stefanos Karatopis Geoffrey E. Barton (MPO) Sam Oosterhoff
Niagara West—Glanbrook
Oakville Kevin Flynn Stephen Crawford Lesley Sprague Emily DeSousa Spencer Oklobdzija Kevin Flynn
Oakville North—Burlington Alvin Tedjo Effie Triantafilopoulos Saima Zaidi Marianne Workman Charles Zach Frank DeLuca (T) New District
St. Catharines Jim Bradley Sandie Bellows Jennie Stevens Colin Ryrie Daniel Tisi Jim Fannon Saleh Waziruddin (Comm.)
Duke Willis (CAP)
Jim Bradley

Midwestern Ontario

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal PC NDP Green Libertarian Other
Brantford—Brant Ruby Toor Will Bouma Alex Felsky Ken Burns Rob Ferguson Nicholas Archer (NOTA)
Leslie Bory (CCP)
John Turmel (Paupers)
Dave Wrobel (Ont.)
Dave Levac
Brant
Cambridge Kathryn McGarry Belinda Karahalios Marjorie Knight Michele Braniff Allan Dettweiler Kathryn McGarry
Guelph Sly Castaldi Ray Ferraro Agnieszka (Aggie) Mlynarz Mike Schreiner Michael Riehl Juanita Burnett (Comm.)
Thomas Mooney (Ont.)
Paul Taylor (NOTA)
Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk Dan Matten Toby Barrett Danielle Du Sablon Anne Faulkner Christopher Rosser Wasyl Luczkiw (MPO)
Dan Preston (NOTA)
Carolyn Ritchie (Paupers)
Thecla Ross (FPO)
Toby Barrett
Huron—Bruce Don Matheson Lisa Thompson Jan Johnstone Nicholas Wendler Ronald Stephens Gerrie Huenemoerder (All.) Lisa Thompson
Kitchener Centre Daiene Vernile Mary Henein Thorn Laura Mae Lindo Stacey Danckert Jason Erb Chris Carr (NOTA)
Martin Suter (Comm.)
Daiene Vernile
Kitchener—Conestoga Joe Gowing Mike Harris, Jr. Kelly Dick Bob Jonkman Daniel Benoy Dan Holt (CO) Michael Harris
Kitchener South—Hespeler Surekha Shenoy Amy Fee Fitz Vanderpool David Weber Nathan Lajeunesse Narine Sookram (Ind.) New District
Oxford James Howard Ernie Hardeman Tara King Al De Jong Chris Swift Tim Hodges (FPO)
David Sikal (Ind.)
Robert Van Ryswyck (Ont.)
Noah Walsh (All.)
Ernie Hardeman
Perth—Wellington Brendan Knight Randy Pettapiece Michael O'Brien Lisa Olsen Scott Marshall Paul McKendrick (CO)
Rob Smeenk (FPO)
Andrew Stanton (All.)
Randy Pettapiece
Waterloo Dorothy McCabe Dan Weber Catherine Fife Zdravko Gunjevic Andrew Allison Catherine Fife
Kitchener—Waterloo
Wellington—Halton Hills Jon Hurst Ted Arnott Diane Ballantyne Dave Rodgers Jadon Pfeiffer Ted Arnott

Southwestern Ontario

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal PC NDP Green Libertarian Other
Chatham-Kent—Leamington Margaret Schleier Stahl Rick Nicholls Jordan McGrail Mark Vercouteren Drew Simpson (Ind.) Rick Nicholls
Chatham-Kent—Essex
Elgin—Middlesex—London Carlie Forsythe Jeff Yurek Amanda Stratton Bronagh Morgan Richard Styve Henri Barrette (POT)
Dave Plumb (FPO)
Jeff Yurek
Essex Kate Festeryga Chris Lewis Taras Natyshak Nancy Pancheshan Taras Natyshak
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Mike Radan Monte McNaughton Todd Case Anthony Li Brad Greulich Brian Everaert (T) Monte McNaughton
London—Fanshawe Lawvin Hadisi Eric Weniger Teresa Armstrong Lisa Carriere Henryk Szymczyszyn Stephen Campbell (NOTA)
Rob Small (FPO)
Teresa Armstrong
London North Centre Kate Graham Susan Truppe Terence Kernaghan Carol Dyck Calvin McKay Paul McKeever (FPO)
Clara Sorrenti (Comm.)
Deb Matthews
London West Jonathan Hughes Andrew Lawton Peggy Sattler Pamela Reid Jacques Boudreau Brad Harness (CO)
Michael Lewis (Comm.)
Tracey Pringle (FPO)
Peggy Sattler
Sarnia—Lambton Neil Wereley Bob Bailey Kathy Alexander Kevin Shaw Andy Bruziewicz(T)
Fanina R. Kodre (N/A)
Jeff Lozier (NOTA)
Bob Bailey
Windsor—Tecumseh Remy Boulbol Mohammad Latif Percy Hatfield Henry Oulevey Laura Chesnik (Ind.) Percy Hatfield
Windsor West Rino Bortolin Adam Ibrahim Lisa Gretzky Krysta Glovasky-Ridsdale Chad Durocher (NOTA) Lisa Gretzky

Northern Ontario

Northeastern Ontario

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal PC NDP Green Libertarian Northern Ontario Other
Algoma—Manitoulin Charles Fox Jib Turner Michael Mantha Justin Tilson Kalena Mallon-Ferguson Tommy Lee Michael Mantha
Mushkegowuk—James Bay Gaëtan Baillargeon André Robichaud Guy Bourgouin Sarah Hutchinson Vanda Marshall Jacques Joseph Ouellette Fauzia Sadiq (CoR) New District
Nickel Belt Tay Butt Jo-Ann Cardinal France Gélinas Bill Crumplin James Chretien Matthew Del Papa Kevin R Brault (CO)
Bailey Burch-Belanger (NOTA)
France Gélinas
Nipissing Stephen Glass Vic Fedeli Henri Giroux Kris Rivard Bond Keevil Trevor Holliday Vic Fedeli
Parry Sound—Muskoka Brenda Rhodes Norm Miller Erin Horvath Matt Richter Christopher Packer Joshua Macdonald (NOTA)
Jeff Mole (Ind.)
Norm Miller
Sault Ste. Marie Jaclynne Hamel Ross Romano Michele McCleave-Kennedy Kara Flannigan Lance Brizard Sandy Holmberg Ross Romano
Sudbury Glenn Thibeault Troy Crowder Jamie West David Robinson James Wendler Mila Chavez Wong (CO)
David J. Popescu (Ind.)
David Sylvestre (NOTA)
Glenn Thibeault
Timiskaming—Cochrane Brian Johnson Margaret Williams John Vanthof Casey Lalonde Lawrence Schnarr Shawn Poirier John Vanthof
Timmins Mickey Auger Yvan Genier Gilles Bisson Lucas Schinbeckler Jozef Bauer Gary Schaap Gilles Bisson
Timmins—James Bay

Northwestern Ontario

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal PC NDP Green Libertarian Northern Ontario Other
Kenora—Rainy River Karen Kejick Greg Rickford Glen Archer Ember McKillop Sarah Campbell
Kiiwetinoong Doug Lawrance Clifford Bull Sol Mamakwa Christine Penner Polle Kenneth Jones New District
Thunder Bay—Atikokan Bill Mauro Brandon Postuma Judith Monteith-Farrell John Northey Dorothy Snell David Bruno Bill Mauro
Thunder Bay—Superior North Michael Gravelle Derek Parks Lise Vaugeois Amanda Moddejonge Tony Gallo Andy Wolff Louise Ewen (T) Michael Gravelle

Opinion polls

Campaign period

Evolution of voting intentions during the 2018 Ontario provincial election campaign. Plot generated in R from data in the table below. Trendlines are local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the regressions, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.
Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link Lib PC NDP Gre Oth Margin
of error
Sample
size
Polling method Lead
Forum Research June 6, 2018 PDF 21 39 34 5 1 ±3 pp 2,178 IVR 5
Research Co. June 6, 2018 HTML 20 39 37 4 1 ±3.8 pp 661 Online 2
EKOS June 6, 2018 PDF 18.9 39.1 35.1 4.5 2.4 ±2.8 pp 1,230 IVR 4.0
Pollara June 5, 2018 PDF 17 38 38 6 2 ±3.3 pp 906 (1/3) Online/telephone (rolling) 0
Ipsos June 5, 2018 HTML 19 39 36 6* ±3.1 pp 1,501 Online/telephone 3
Mainstreet Research June 4, 2018 HTML 20.2 39.0 34.3 4.9 1.7 ±1.7 pp 3,320 IVR 4.7
Leger June 4, 2018 HTML 18 39 38 5* N/A 1,008 Online 1
Pollara June 4, 2018 PDF 17 39 37 6 1 ±3.0 pp 1,083 (1/4) Online/telephone (rolling) 2
Pollara June 3, 2018 PDF 20 38 37 5 1 ±2.7 pp 1,275 (1/4) Online/telephone (rolling) 1
Forum Research June 2, 2018 PDF 18 38 37 5 2 ±3 pp 2,349 IVR 1
Abacus Data June 2, 2018 HTML 23 33 37 5 2 ±1.9 pp 2,646 Online 4
Pollara June 2, 2018 PDF 20 37 37 5 1 ±2.6 pp 1,447 Online/telephone 0
EKOS May 31, 2018 PDF 19.3 38.6 34.9 5.9 1.2 ±3.1 pp 990 (2/3) IVR (rolling) 3.7
Research Co. May 31, 2018 HTML 18 38 39 4 1 ±3.7 pp 701 Online 1
Forum Research May 29, 2018 PDF 19 39 35 5 2 ±2 pp 2,602 IVR 4
H+K Strategies May 29, 2018 HTML 19 37 39 6 ±2.5 pp 1,500 Online 2
EKOS May 29, 2018 PDF 19.1 37.9 38.4 3.3 1.3 ±3.2 pp 945 IVR 0.5
Angus Reid May 29, 2018 PDF 17 37 39 5 2 ±3.5 pp 773 Online 2
Innovative Research May 29, 2018 PDF 22 34 36 6 2 N/A 958 Online 2
Innovative Research May 29, 2018 PDF 21 34 37 6 1 ±4.0 pp 611 Telephone 3
Pollara May 28, 2018 PDF 17 32 43 5 2 ±3.5 pp 800 Online 11
Media consortium leaders' debate in Toronto (May 27, 2018)
Mainstreet Research May 27, 2018 HTML 16.0 37.9 39.3 4.5 2.4 ±2.39 pp 1,682 IVR 1.4
Ipsos May 27, 2018 HTML 22 37 34 7* ±3.2 pp 1,241 Online/telephone 3
Abacus Data May 26, 2018 HTML 23 33 37 4 2 ±3.5 pp 800 Online 4
EKOS May 24, 2018 PDF 20.4 34.9 35.6 7.0 2.1 ±3.1 pp 1,021 IVR 0.7
Forum Research May 23, 2018 PDF 14 33 47 4 2 ±3 pp 906 IVR 14
Innovative Research May 23, 2018 PDF 26 36 31 6 1 N/A 1,074 Online 5
Pollara May 22, 2018 HTML 18 37 38 5 2 ±3.3 pp 870 Online 1
Leger May 22, 2018 PDF 21 37 37 5* ±3.09 pp 1,008 Online 0
Ipsos May 21, 2018 HTML 23 36 37 4* ±3.5 pp 1,000 Online 1
Abacus Data May 18, 2018 HTML 24 35 34 5 2 ±1.9 pp 2,824 Online 1
Mainstreet Research May 18, 2018 HTML 22.3 41.9 29.3 5.0 1.4 ±2.02 pp 2,350 IVR 12.6
EKOS May 17, 2018 PDF 23.3 39.1 29.8 5.4 2.3 ±2.9 pp 1,124 IVR 9.3
H+K Strategies May 15, 2018 HTML 23 38 32 7* ±2.5 pp 1,500 Online 6
Ipsos May 14, 2018 HTML 22 40 35 3* ±3.5 pp 1,000 Online 5
Innovative Research May 12, 2018 PDF 27 35 31 6 1 N/A 1,529 Online 4
Leaders' debate in Parry Sound (May 11, 2018)
Mainstreet Research May 11, 2018 HTML 22.1 42.3 28.4 5.4 1.8 ±1.95 pp 2,534 IVR 13.9
Forum Research May 9, 2018 PDF 22 40 33 4 2 ±4 pp 777 IVR 7
Innovative Research May 9, 2018 PDF 28 38 28 6 1 N/A 915 Online 10
CityTV Toronto leaders' debate (May 7, 2018)

Includes support for the Green Party

Best Premier and Party Leader Approval Ratings

Date Firm Best Premier ratings Approval ratings
Ford Horwath Wynne
Ford Horwath Wynne Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove
June 6, 2018 Research Co.   36% 55% 54% 34% 29% 64%
June 2, 2018 Forum Research 27% 31% 17% 27% 55% 41% 34% 23% 65%
June 2, 2018 Abacus Data   25% 48% 42% 20% 21% 56%
May 31, 2018 Research Co. 23% 28% 15% 33% 56% 52% 34% 27% 64%
May 29, 2018 Forum Research 29% 30% 16% 30% 53% 40% 32% 23% 65%
May 29, 2018 Angus Reid 25% 34% 15%  
May 29, 2018 Innovative Research 23% 30% 14% 30% 54% 48% 23% 25% 59%
May 26, 2018 Abacus Data   27% 45% 44% 15% 19% 60%
May 23, 2018 Forum Research 30% 33% 15% 32% 51% 43% 26% 19% 69%
May 23, 2018 Innovative Research 24% 26% 19% 27% 57% 46% 20% 24% 61%
May 22, 2018 Leger 23% 28% 12%  
May 18, 2018 Abacus Data   26% 46% 42% 13% 17% 60%
May 12, 2018 Innovative Research 24% 26% 16% 31% 52% 44% 17% 21% 62%
May 9, 2018 Forum Research   34% 49% 42% 25% 20% 71%

Major Regional Polls - Toronto

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link Lib PC NDP Gre Oth Margin
of error
Sample
size
Polling method Lead
Campaign Research May 16, 2018 HTML 27 35 32 5 2 ±2.3 pp 1,871 Online 3
Leaders' debate in Parry Sound (May 11, 2018)
Mainstreet Research May 7, 2018 PDF 31.1 36.6 23.1 5.9 3.4 ±2.19 pp 2,000 IVR 5.5
CityTV Toronto leaders' debate (May 7, 2018)

Pre-campaign period

Ten-poll average of Ontario opinion polls from June 12, 2014, to the last possible date of the next election on June 6, 2018. Each line corresponds to a political party.
Polling organisation Last date of polling Source Lib PC NDP Gr Oth Polling type Sample size Margin of error
Ipsos May 7, 2018 HTML 26 40 29 - 5 Online/telephone 1,197 ±3.2%
EKOS Research May 6, 2018 Twitter 24.4 41.1 25.6 6.5 2 IVR 2,018 ±2.2%
Abacus Data May 6, 2018 HTML 29 35 29 5 2 Online 1,755 ±2.4%
Nanos Research May 6, 2018 PDF 28.5 41.1 24.3 5.9 Telephone 500 ±4.4%
Pollara May 4, 2018 HTML 23 40 30 6 1 Online 1,010 ±3.1%
Leger April 23, 2018 HTML 26 43 26 - Online 1,000+
Nanos Research April 22, 2018 PDF 30.6 42.2 21.4 5.3 Telephone 2,098 ±2.1%
Forum Research April 18, 2018 PDF 21 46 27 4 2 IVR 1,126 ±3%
Mainstreet Research April 18, 2018 HTML 28.2 44.9 21.3 4.0 1.6 IVR 1,763 ±2.33%
Ipsos April 9, 2018 HTML 27 40 28 - 5 Online 800 ±4.0%
Innovative Research April 9, 2018 HTML 29.9 42.5 20.7 6.9 1.1 Online 600 ±4.0%
Abacus Data April 8, 2018 HTML 28 40 24 6 2 Online 4,177 ±1.5%
EKOS Research April 5, 2018 PDF 29.3 43.0 20.7 5.2 1.8 IVR 1,067 ±3.0%
Mainstreet Research April 4, 2018 HTML 23.9 50.3 18.3 5.2 2.4 IVR 1,969 ±2.21%
Forum Research March 29, 2018 PDF 29 36 26 7 2 IVR 728 ±4%
Innovative Research March 20, 2018 PDF 26 44 22 7 1 Telephone 603 ±4.0%
Mainstreet Research March 18, 2018 HTML 26.2 47.0 18.6 6.4 1.8 IVR 2,003 ±2.23%
Campaign Research March 14, 2018 HTML 27 43 23 5 1 Online 1,637 ±2.4%
Leger March 14, 2018 PDF 26 42 24 - 8 Online 1,008 ±3.087%
Ipsos March 14, 2018 HTML 32 39 25 - 3 Online 803 ±4.0%
Forum Research March 11, 2018 PDF 23 44 27 5 2 IVR 923 ±3%
10 March 2018 Doug Ford is elected leader of the Progressive Conservative Party
Angus Reid March 7, 2018 PDF 24 50 22 - 4 Online 807 ±3.4%
DART February 27, 2018 PDF 19 44 24 - 13 Online 962 ±3.6%
Nanos Research February 26, 2018 PDF 30.5 43.5 23.2 2.8 Telephone 502 ±4.4%
Forum Research February 23, 2018 PDF 21 46 24 7 2 IVR 1,005 ±3%
Ipsos February 19, 2018 HTML 29 38 26 - 7 Online 802 ±4.0%
Forum Research February 17, 2018 PDF 24 49 19 7 2 IVR 949 ±3%
Campaign Research February 11, 2018 HTML 28 43 20 8 1 Online 1,426 ±2.5%
Leger January 2018 HTML 33 36 26 Online 996 ±3.1%
Innovative Research January 29, 2018 PDF 32 36 21 9 2 Online 1,027
26 January 2018 Vic Fedeli is appointed as interim leader of the Ontario PC Party
Forum Research January 25, 2018 PDF 27 42 23 6 2 IVR 751 ±4%
25 January 2018 Patrick Brown resigns as Ontario PC leader
Innovative Research January 17, 2018 PDF 35 38 18 8 1 Online 1,040
Forum Research January 13, 2018 PDF 24 43 24 7 2 IVR 1,022 ±3%
Campaign Research January 11, 2018 HTML 34 35 23 6 2 Online 1,544 ±2.5%
Mainstreet Research January 6, 2018 PDF 32 43 18 7 IVR 2,375 ±2.01%
Nanos Research December 18, 2017 PDF 33.5 41.4 20.5 4.0 Telephone 500 ±4.4%
Ipsos December 14, 2017 HTML 28 36 28 - 9 Online 829 ±4.0%
Campaign Research December 6, 2017 HTML 35 34 22 7 2 Online 1,495 ±2.5%
Forum Research November 30, 2017 PDF 24 40 26 8 2 IVR 861 ±3%
Innovative Research November 17, 2017 PDF 31 41 19 8 1 Telephone 607 ±4.0%
Campaign Research November 9, 2017 HTML 32 35 23 9 1 Online 1,263 ±2.8%
Nanos Research October 29, 2017 PDF 29.2 38.3 26.0 6.4 Telephone 500 ±4.4%
Forum Research October 25, 2017 PDF 24 45 22 7 2 IVR 946 ±3%
Campaign Research October 11, 2017 HTML 32 36 25 7 1 Online 1,347 ±2.7%
Forum Research September 27, 2017 PDF 22 44 27 5 2 IVR 801 ±3%
Innovative Research September 18, 2017 PDF 35 40 18 5 1 Telephone 608 ±4.0%
Campaign Research September 11, 2017 HTML 33 38 23 6 0 Online 1,133 ±2.9%
Ipsos September 11, 2017 HTML 32 39 22 - 7 Online 800 ±4.0%
Forum Research August 24, 2017 PDF 25 40 27 6 2 IVR 981 ±3%
Nanos Research August 17, 2017 PDF 31.2 42.2 19.5 6.7 Telephone 500 ±4.4%
Innovative Research July 19, 2017 HTML 36 40 17 6 1 Telephone 605 ±4.0%
Campaign Research July 10, 2017 HTML 31 38 23 6 1 Online 943 ±3%
Innovative Research June 27, 2017 HTML 35 39 20 5 1 Telephone 600 ±4.0%
Forum Research June 14, 2017 PDF 23 44 24 7 2 IVR 1,003 ±3%
Campaign Research June 12, 2017 HTML 30 38 24 7 1 Online 1,118 ±3%
Mainstreet Research May 25, 2017 HTML 29 43 24 5 - IVR 2,000 ±2.19%
Campaign Research May 13, 2017 HTML 37 34 22 6 1 Online 864 ±4%
Forum Research May 10, 2017 PDF 28 41 23 6 3 IVR 1,103 ±3%
Campaign Research April 11, 2017 HTML 31 36 25 Online 979 ±3%
Innovative Research April 5, 2017 PDF 29 40 23 6 2 Online 779
Forum Research March 30, 2017 PDF 19 43 28 8 2 IVR 884 ±3.3%
Mainstreet Research March 12, 2017 HTML 30 40 24 6 - IVR 2,531 ±1.95%
Forum Research February 16, 2017 PDF 24 44 25 6 2 IVR 1,120 ±3%
Mainstreet Research February 12, 2017 HTML 29 39 27 4 - IVR 2,524 ±1.95%
Campaign Research January 29, 2017 HTML 28 50 15 5 2 IVR 676 ±4%
Forum Research November 21, 2016 PDF 24 43 24 8 2 IVR 1,184 ±3%
Nanos Research November 19, 2016 PDF 31.9 39.9 22.2 5.2 0.8 Telephone 500 ±4.4%
Mainstreet Research November 2, 2016 HTML 25 43 27 6 - IVR 2,524 ±1.95%
Forum Research October 18, 2016 PDF 24 43 23 8 2 IVR 1,124 ±3%
Innovative Research September 24, 2016 PDF 33 38 20 8 - Telephone 600 ±4.0%
Ipsos September 22, 2016 HTML 40 35 20 5 - Online 800 ±4%
Mainstreet Research September 18, 2016 HTML 28 43 23 6 - IVR 2,562 ±1.94%
Forum Research September 13, 2016 PDF 25 45 23 6 2 IVR 1,154 ±3%
Ipsos September 9, 2016 HTML 35 37 23 5 - Online 800 ±4%
8 September 2016 Premier Kathleen Wynne prorogues the legislature
Forum Research August 15, 2016 PDF 28 41 23 6 2 IVR 1,097 ±3%
Forum Research July 12, 2016 PDF 35 42 17 5 2 IVR 1,183 ±3%
Forum Research June 21, 2016 PDF 30 40 21 8 2 IVR 1,173 ±3%
Forum Research May 31, 2016 PDF 30 40 21 7 2 IVR 1,172 ±3%
Mainstreet Research May 18, 2016 HTML 36 38 20 5 - IVR 2,537 ±1.95%
Forum Research April 25, 2016 PDF 34 39 21 5 2 IVR 1,157 ±3%
Forum Research March 23, 2016 PDF 30 40 24 5 2 IVR 1,225 ±3%
Forum Research February 29, 2016 PDF 27 44 22 6 2 IVR 1,148 ±3%
Mainstreet Research February 16, 2016 HTML 33 36 26 5 - IVR 2,623 ±1.91%
Forum Research December 20, 2015 PDF 31 34 26 7 2 IVR 1,003 ±3%
Ipsos November 9, 2015 HTML 44 31 20 4 - Online 1,002 ±3.5%
Forum Research November 4, 2015 PDF 30 36 26 6 1 IVR 1,158 ±3%
Mainstreet Research November 1, 2015 HTML 28 40 25 7 - IVR 2,506 ±1.96%
Mainstreet Research September 21, 2015 HTML 30 40 24 7 - IVR 4,610 ±1.5%
Forum Research August 13, 2015 PDF 26 35 33 4 2 IVR 1,001 ±3%
Forum Research July 5, 2015 PDF 26 32 35 5 2 IVR 678 ±4%
Ipsos May 20, 2015 HTML 34.13 32.37 25.19 8.31 - Online 1,002 ±3.5%
Innovative Research May 19, 2015 PDF 34 35 24 6 - Telephone 606 ±4.0%
Forum Research May 11, 2015 PDF 24 33 36 5 2 IVR 1,001 ±3%
9 May 2015 Patrick Brown is elected leader of the Ontario PC Party
Forum Research April 30, 2015 PDF 29 36 24 9 2 IVR 912 ±3%
Innovative Research April 26, 2015 PDF 40 33 18 8 1 Online 1,017
Forum Research March 26, 2015 PDF 29 34 27 8 2 IVR 881 ±3%
Environics March 25, 2015 HTML 32 33 27 7 - Telephone 989 ±3.1%
Forum Research February 27, 2015 PDF 32 39 21 6 2 IVR 996 ±3%
Forum Research January 30, 2015 PDF 37 36 19 6 2 IVR 1,028 ±3%
Forum Research December 20, 2014 PDF 35 36 20 7 2 IVR 1,058 ±3%
Forum Research November 29, 2014 PDF 37 37 17 7 2 IVR 1,054 ±3%
Forum Research November 1, 2014 PDF 40 35 19 4 2 IVR 1,104 ±3%
Forum Research October 1, 2014 PDF 36 34 23 6 1 IVR 1,079 ±3%
Forum Research August 21, 2014 PDF 39 32 19 8 2 IVR 1,229 ±3%
2 July 2014 Jim Wilson becomes interim leader of the Ontario PC Party
2 July 2014 Tim Hudak resigns as leader of the Ontario PC Party
2014 election June 12, 2014 HTML 38.65 31.25 23.75 4.84 1.51

Notes

  1. formerly Jagmeet Singh
  2. formerly Cheri DiNovo
  3. formerly Glen Murray
  4. formerly Eric Hoskins

References

  1. ^ Ferguson, Rob (October 19, 2016). "Ontario moves election date to June 7, 2018". Toronto Star. Retrieved October 31, 2016.
  2. Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015, S.O. 2015, c. 31
  3. as a result of the Election Statute Law Amendment Act, 2016, S.O. 2016, c. 33, s. 36
  4. "Report: Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission". August 8, 2017.
  5. Benzie, Robert (August 8, 2017). "Ontario to get 17 new ridings, including a constituency that is largely Indigenous". Toronto Star. Retrieved December 10, 2017.
  6. Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017, S.O. 2017, c. 18
  7. "Ontario Liberals' plan for two new ridings could violate the Charter and cost PCs the election". National Post. August 3, 2017. Retrieved January 13, 2017. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  8. "Public Opinion Research: Ontario This Month" (PDF). innovativeresearch.ca. Innovative Research Group. September 2017. pp. 17–23.
  9. Election Statute Law Amendment Act, 2005, S.O. 2005, c. 35, s. 1(3)
  10. Benzie, Robert (June 4, 2015). "Ontario to add 15 MPPs, move 2018 election date ahead". Toronto Star. Retrieved October 25, 2015.
  11. Election Statute Law Amendment Act, 2016, S.O. 2016, c. 33, s. 7
  12. "Party overturns Ottawa West-Nepean PC nomination | CBC News". CBC. Retrieved May 31, 2018.
  13. "PCs to hold new nomination contests in Ottawa West-Nepean, Scarborough Centre". Ottawa Citizen. February 10, 2018. Retrieved May 31, 2018.
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