Appeal to probability - Misplaced Pages

Type of formal fallacy

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This article may need to be rewritten to comply with Misplaced Pages's quality standards, as the article is very stub-like. I tried to remove neglects of probability, however, the article should still include more information on the typical usage of the fallacy in real life. Currently, it consists only of the true but unmotivated statement that "possibly" is not the same as "probably" and that "probably" is not the same as "guaranteed". You can help. The talk page may contain suggestions. (January 2024)

An appeal to probability (or appeal to possibility, also known as possibiliter ergo probabiliter, "possibly, therefore probably") is the logical fallacy of taking something for granted because it is possibly the case. The fact that an event is possible does not imply that the event is probable, nor that the event was realized.

Example

A fallacious appeal to possibility:

If it can happen (premise).

It will happen. (invalid conclusion)

Something can go wrong (premise).

Therefore, something will go wrong (invalid conclusion).

If I do not bring my umbrella (premise)

It will rain. (invalid conclusion).

Murphy's law is a (typically deliberate, tongue-in-cheek) invocation of the fallacy.

References

Bibliography

Bennett, Bo, "Appeal to possibility", Logically Fallacious, retrieved 13 March 2021
Carrier, Richard (2012), Proving History: Bayes's Theorem and the Quest for the Historical Jesus, Prometheus Books, p. 26-29, ISBN 9781616145590

Common fallacies (list)

Formal

In propositional logic	Affirming a disjunct Affirming the consequent Denying the antecedent Argument from fallacy Masked man Mathematical fallacy
In quantificational logic	Existential Illicit conversion Proof by example Quantifier shift
Syllogistic fallacy	Affirmative conclusion from a negative premise Negative conclusion from affirmative premises Exclusive premises Existential Necessity Four terms Illicit major Illicit minor Undistributed middle

Informal

Equivocation

Question-begging

Correlative-based

Illicit transference

Secundum quid

Faulty generalization

Ambiguity

Questionable cause

Animistic
- Furtive
Correlation implies causation
- Cum hoc
- Post hoc
Gambler's
- Inverse
Regression
Single cause
Slippery slope
Texas sharpshooter

Appeals

Consequences	Argumentum ad baculum Wishful thinking
Emotion	Children Fear Flattery Novelty Pity Ridicule In-group favoritism Invented here / Not invented here Island mentality Loyalty Parade of horribles Spite Stirring symbols Wisdom of repugnance

Genetic fallacy

Ad hominem	Appeal to motive Association Reductio ad Hitlerum Godwin's law Reductio ad Stalinum Bulverism Poisoning the well Tone Tu quoque Whataboutism
Authority Accomplishment Ipse dixit Poverty / Wealth Etymology Nature Tradition / Novelty Chronological snobbery

Other fallacies
of relevance

Arguments	Ad nauseam Sealioning Argument from anecdote Argument from silence Argument to moderation Argumentum ad populum
Cliché The Four Great Errors I'm entitled to my opinion Ignoratio elenchi Invincible ignorance Moralistic / Naturalistic Motte-and-bailey fallacy Psychologist's fallacy Rationalization Red herring Two wrongs make a right Special pleading Straw man

Category

Categories:

Example

See also

References

Notes

Bibliography