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Opinion polling for the 2020 Israeli legislative election

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In the run up to the 2020 Israeli legislative election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Israel during the term of the 22nd Knesset. This article lists the results of such polls.

The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous election, held on 17 September 2019, to the present day. The elections are to be held on 2 March 2020. No polls may be published from the end of the Friday before the election until the polling stations close on election day at 22:00.

Polls are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the highest figures. When a poll has no information on a certain party, that party is instead marked by a dash (–).

Seat projections

This section displays voting intention estimates referring to a hypothetical Knesset election. The figures listed are Knesset seat counts rather than percentages, unless otherwise stated.

Graphs

This graph shows the polling trends from the 17 September 2019 Israeli legislative election until election day using 4-poll moving average. Scenario polls are not included here.

For parties not crossing the electoral threshold (currently 3.25%) in any given poll, the number of seats is calculated as a percentage of the 120 total seats.

Local regression of polls conducted

Polls

Poll results are listed in the table below. Parties that fall below the electoral threshold are denoted by the percentage of votes that they received (N%) rather than the number of seats they would have gotten.

Legend

61 seats are required for a majority in the Knesset.

Note: The composition of the current government does not necessarily determine the exact makeup of the post-election government.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Date Polling firm Publisher Blue &
White 		Likud Joint
List 		Emet Shas Yisrael
Beiteinu 		UTJ Yamina Otzma Gov.
Pre-election seats 33 32 13 10 9 8 7 7 – 55
2 Mar 2020 Election results 33 36 15 7 9 7 7 6 (0.42%) 58
2 Mar 2020 Kantar Kan 11 33 36 15 6 9 6 8 7 – 60
2 Mar 2020 Midgam Channel 12 33 37 14 7 9 6 7 7 – 60
2 Mar 2020 Camile Fuchs Channel 13 32 37 14 6 9 8 8 6 – 60
28 Feb 2020 Election silence starting end of Friday before election day
28 Feb 2020 Smith Maariv 34 35 14 8 9 6 7 7 – 58
28 Feb 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 33 33 15 9 8 7 7 8 (1.8%) 56
27–28 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12 33 35 14 9 8 6 8 7 (1.5%) 58
27 Feb 2020 Panels Politics Maariv & The Jerusalem Post 34 34 13 9 9 7 7 7 (2.1%) 57
27 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News 33 33 14 9 8 7 7 9 (2%) 57
27 Feb 2020 Kantar Kan 11 34 35 14 8 8 6 8 7 (1.6%) 58
26 Feb 2020 Direct Polls Arutz Sheva 33 35 13 9 9 6 8 7 (0.96%) 59
25 Feb 2020 Midgam Walla! 34 34 13 9 8 7 8 7 (1.7%) 57
25 Feb 2020 Panels Politics 103fm 32 34 14 9 8 8 7 8 (2%) 57
24 Feb 2020 Kantar Kan 11 33 34 14 10 8 7 7 7 (1.9%) 56
24 Feb 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 32 33 14 10 8 8 7 8 (2.0%) 56
23 Feb 2020 Kantar Kan 11 34 35 14 9 8 7 7 6 (1.3%) 56
23 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12 33 34 13 10 8 7 8 7 (1.5%) 57
19–20 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News 36 33 13 8 8 7 7 8 (1%) 56
19–20 Feb 2020 Direct Polls Arutz Sheva 31 33 14 10 9 7 8 8 (1.2%) 58
19 Feb 2020 Panels Politics Maariv 36 32 14 8 9 8 7 7 (2.6%) 54
19 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12 35 33 13 9 8 7 8 7 (1.6%) 56
17 Feb 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 36 33 14 8 7 8 7 7 (1.9%) 54
16–17 Feb 2020 Midgam Walla! 34 33 13 10 8 7 8 7 (2.5%) 56
13–14 Feb 2020 Panels Politics 103fm 35 32 14 8 8 7 8 8 (2.8%) 56
13 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12 35 33 13 9 8 7 8 7 (2.2%) 56
12–13 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News 34 32 14 8 8 7 8 9 (1%) 57
12–13 Feb 2020 Smith Maariv 34 33 14 9 9 7 7 7 (1.4%) 56
11–12 Feb 2020 Panels Politics Makor Rishon 36 33 14 7 8 7 8 7 (2.6%) 56
7 Feb 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 35 33 14 10 7 8 7 6 (1.5%) 53
6 Feb 2020 Direct Polls Channel 20 33 34 13 10 8 7 8 7 (1%) 57
5–6 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News 36 34 13 8 8 6 7 8 (1%) 57
5 Feb 2020 Panels Politics Maariv 36 33 13 8 7 7 8 8 (2.8%) 56
5 Feb 2020 Midgam Walla! 34 32 13 9 8 8 8 8 (1.7%) 56
30 Jan 2020 Maagar Mochot 103fm 34 31 14 9 9 7 7 9 (1.5%) 56
29 Jan 2020 Panels Politics Maariv 36 33 13 7 8 8 8 7 – 56
29 Jan 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 35 34 12 10 7 8 7 7 (2.1%) 55
29 Jan 2020 Midgam Channel 12 35 33 13 8 8 8 7 8 (2.2%) 56
29 Jan 2020 Kantar Kan 11 34 33 14 8 8 8 8 7 (1.1%) 56
28 Jan 2020 Direct Polls Israel Hayom 33 35 13 9 8 7 8 7 (1.32%) 58
28 Jan 2020 Announcement of Trump's Peace Plan
22–23 Jan 2020 Panels Politics Makor Rishon 35 32 14 8 8 7 8 8 (2.6%) 56
22–23 Jan 2020 Midgam Walla! 35 32 13 9 8 8 7 8 (2.2%) 55
20–21 Jan 2020 Kantar Kan 11 35 31 13 9 8 8 8 8 (1.93%) 55
19 Jan 2020 Direct Polls Channel 13 34 32 13 10 8 7 8 8 (1.1%) 56
16 Jan 2020 Maagar Mochot 103fm 34 30 14 10 8 8 7 9 (1.0%) 54
16 Jan 2020 Midgam Channel 12 34 32 13 8 8 8 7 10 (2.1%) 57
16 Jan 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 34 31 14 9 6 8 7 7 4 51
16 Jan 2020 Kantar Kan 11 36 31 13 9 9 7 8 7 (2.2%) 55
16 Jan 2020 (midnight) Deadline to submit the candidate lists
15 Jan 2020 Yamina alliance reestablished, United Jewish Home dissolves
15 Jan 2020 Green Party withdrawal
Date Polling firm Publisher Blue &
White 		Likud Joint
List 		Emet Shas Yisrael
Beiteinu 		UTJ New
Right 		NU UJH Green Gov.
Current seats 33 32 13 10 9 8 7 5 2 1 55
14 Jan 2020 Direct Polls Arutz Sheva 34 32 13 10 8 8 8 7 (2.4%) (2.3%) 55
14 Jan 2020 (noon) Beginning of registration for candidate lists
14 Jan 2020 New Right and National Union merger
13 Jan 2020 Midgam Channel 12 34 31 13 9 8 7 7 6 5 (0.4%) 57
34 32 13 9 8 7 7 10 (0.4%) 57
34 32 13 9 8 7 7 6 4 (0.4%) 57
13 Jan 2020 Labor-Gesher and Meretz merger, Democratic Union dissolves
Date Polling firm Publisher Blue &
White 		Likud Joint
List 		Shas Yisrael
Beiteinu 		UTJ Labor-
Gesher 		Dem.
Union 		New
Right 		NU UJH Green Gov.
JH Otzma
Current seats 33 32 13 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 2 1 55
9 Jan 2020 Midgam Arutz Sheva 34 32 13 8 7 7 5 4 6 4 – 57
34 32 13 8 7 8 5 4 9 (2.7%) – 57
8–9 Jan 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom 34 30 15 7 7 8 5 5 4 (1%) 5 (0.2%) 54
34 29 14 7 7 8 5 5 11 – 55
33 29 14 7 7 7 5 5 5 8 – 56
33 30 13 7 7 7 11 6 (1%) 6 – 56
39 31 14 7 11 7 6 (1%) 5 – 56
8–9 Jan 2020 Panels Politics Makor Rishon 35 31 14 8 8 8 5 (2.4%) 7 – 4 – 58
35 31 14 7 8 7 5 (2.4%) 7 6 – 58
35 31 14 8 8 7 5 (2.4%) 8 4 – 58
35 33 14 8 8 7 5 (2.4%) 10 – 58
35 32 14 8 8 8 5 (2.4%) 10 (2.1%) – 58
8 Jan 2020 Midgam Walla! 35 33 13 8 8 8 5 4 6 (1.1%) (2.8%) (0.2%) 55
34 32 13 8 8 8 9 8 – 56
7 Jan 2020 Meretz and Democratic Choice agree to run together as the Democratic Union list
2 Jan 2020 KANTAR Kan 11 35 33 13 7 7 8 6 5 6 (3%) – 54
2 Jan 2020 Midgam Channel 12 35 33 13 8 8 8 5 4 6 (0.9%) (2.6%) (0.0%) 55
34 32 13 8 7 7 5 4 6 4 57
2 Jan 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 36 34 13 7 6 7 5 4 8 (2.9%) – 56
35 33 13 7 7 7 10 8 – – 55
1 Jan 2020 Panels Politics Maariv 36 30 13 8 8 7 5 (2.9%) 6 7 – 58
29 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12 34 32 13 8 8 7 5 4 5 4 – 56
26 Dec 2019 Likud reelects Benjamin Netanyahu as its leader
20 Dec 2019 The Jewish Home and Otzma Yehudit agree to run together on a list called the United Jewish Home
19 Dec 2019 Smith 103fm 35 32 13 8 7 7 5 4 5 4 – 56
19 Dec 2019 Stav Shaffir announces independent run of the Green Party
Date Polling firm Publisher Blue &
White 		Likud Joint
List 		Shas Yisrael
Beiteinu 		UTJ Labor-
Gesher 		Dem.
Union 		JH–NU New
Right 		Otzma
Yehudit 		Gov.
Current seats 33 32 13 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 – 55
18 Dec 2019 Panels Politics Makor Rishon 38 34 14 8 7 7 5 (2.1%) (2.7%) 7 (1.6%) 56
15 Dec 2019 Kantar Kan 11 35 31 13 9 8 7 6 5 – 6 – 53
12 Dec 2019 Smith Maariv 35 33 12 8 7 7 5 4 4 5 57
12 Dec 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom 37 31 14 8 8 7 6 4 (2%) 5 (1%) 51
12 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12 35 32 13 8 8 8 5 5 (2.8%) 6 (1.3%) 54
12 Dec 2019 The Knesset is dissolved
10 Dec 2019 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 37 33 13 6 8 7 5 5 – 6 – 52
9–10 Dec 2019 Midgam Walla! 35 33 13 8 8 8 5 4 (2.1%) 6 (1.3%) 55
8 Dec 2019 Kantar Kan Radio 35 34 13 8 7 8 5 4 (2.4%) 6 (1.9%) 56
5 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12 34 33 13 8 8 8 5 5 (2.2%) 6 (1.9%) 55
5 Dec 2019 Maagar Mochot 103fm 34 32 12 8 8 8 4 4 4 6 – 58
28 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom 35 33 13 9 8 8 4 4 (2%) 6 (1%) 56
28 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot 103fm 35 33 13 9 8 8 4 4 – 6 – 56
26–27 Nov 2019 Smith Maariv 35 33 13 8 8 7 5 5 – 6 – 54
26 Nov 2019 Midgam Channel 12 34 33 13 8 9 8 5 4 (2.3%) 6 (1.2%) 55
25–26 Nov 2019 Midgam Walla! 34 33 13 9 8 7 5 4 (2.3%) 7 (1.2%) 56
25 Nov 2019 Panels Politics Channel 12 37 30 12 8 7 7 5 4 4 6 – 55
22 Nov 2019 Panel Project HaMidgam/Statnet Channel 13 36 33 13 6 8 6 4 4 4 6 – 55
21–22 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom 34 33 13 8 7 8 4 6 7 (2%) 56
21 Nov 2019 Midgam Channel 12 33 33 13 8 9 7 5 5 7 – 55
21 Nov 2019 Kantar Kan 11 33 33 12 7 8 8 5 5 4 5 – 57
21 Nov 2019 Attorney General indicts incumbent PM Benjamin Netanyahu on corruption charges
15 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom 33 31 13 10 9 7 6 6 5 – 53
10 Nov 2019 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 35 34 13 6 9 6 5 4 4 4 – 54
31 Oct 2019 Maagar Mochot 103fm 34 33 12 9 8 6 7 5 6 – 54
22 Oct 2019 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 34 33 13 7 8 7 5 4 5 4 – 56
10 Oct 2019 Yamina splits into two factions
Date Polling firm Publisher Blue &
White 		Likud Joint
List 		Shas Yisrael
Beiteinu 		UTJ Yamina Labor-
Gesher 		Dem.
Union 		Otzma
Yehudit 		Gov.
3–6 Oct 2019 Midgam Walla! 33 33 13 9 7 7 7 6 5 – 56
17 Sep 2019 Election results 33 32 13 9 8 7 7 6 5 (1.88%) 55

Scenarios

Gideon Sa'ar founds a new party
Date Polling firm Publisher Blue &
White 		Likud Sa'ar Joint
List 		Shas Yisrael
Beiteinu 		UTJ Labor-
Gesher 		Dem.
Union 		URWP New
Right 		Gov.
Current seats 33 32 13 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 55
1 Jan 2020 Panels Politics Maariv 34 28 6 13 8 7 7 4 – 7 6 62
Gideon Sa'ar leading Likud
Date Polling firm Publisher Blue &
White 		Likud Joint
List 		Shas Yisrael
Beiteinu 		UTJ Labor-
Gesher 		Dem.
Union 		JH–NU New
Right 		Otzma Gov.
Current seats 33 32 13 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 – 55
19 Dec 2019 Smith 103fm 33 30 13 9 6 7 5 4 5 8 59
18 Dec 2019 Panels Politics Makor Rishon 34 30 14 8 7 8 5 (2.6%) 4 10 (2%) 60
15 Dec 2019 Kantar Kan 11 34 27 13 10 7 7 5 5 4 8 – 56
12 Dec 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom 33 31 15 11 7 7 5 4 (2%) 7 (2%) 56
12 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12 35 26 13 8 8 7 5 5 4 9 (2.1%) 54
10 Dec 2019 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 35 29 13 7 8 7 4 5 5 7 – 55
8 Dec 2019 Kantar Kan 11 33 32 13 9 8 8 5 4 – 8 – 57
28 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot 103fm 33 28 14 11 9 9 4 – – 12 – 60
26–27 Nov 2019 Smith Maariv 35 31 13 8 7 7 5 4 4 6 – 56
26 Nov 2019 Midgam Channel 12 35 26 13 10 9 8 6 4 (2.9%) 9 (2.2%) 53
3–6 Oct 2019 Midgam Walla! 33 26 13 10 7 8 6 5 12 – 56

Prime minister

Due to the political deadlock which resulted after the previous election, Shas chairman and Interior Minister Aryeh Deri suggested direct elections for prime minister. Some opinion pollsters have asked voters which party leader they would prefer as prime minister. Their responses are given as percentages in the tables below.

Netanyahu vs Gantz
Date Polling firm Publisher Netanyahu Gantz Neither Don't Know
28 Feb 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 45 35 13 7
27–28 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12 44 32 – –
27 Feb 2020 Panels Politics Maariv & The Jerusalem Post 45 36 13 7
27 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News 49 35 – 16
27 Feb 2020 Kantar Kan 11 45 34 – 21
25 Feb 2020 Panels Politics 103fm 44 35 11 10
24 Feb 2020 Kantar Kan 11 44 34 – 22
24 Feb 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 44 30 19 7
23 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12 43 33 18 6
19–20 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News 45 35 – 20
19 Feb 2020 Panels Politics Maariv 43 39 – 18
19 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12 42 34 18 6
17 Feb 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 45 33 16 6
16–17 Feb 2020 Midgam Walla! 43 35 16 6
13–14 Feb 2020 Panels Politics 103fm 43 40 – 17
13 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12 42 36 17 5
12–13 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News 47 35 – 18
12–13 Feb 2020 Smith Maariv 49 40 – 11
7 Feb 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 44 32 16 8
5–6 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News 47 39 – 14
29 Jan 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 43 33 – 24
29 Jan 2020 Midgam Channel 12 41 37 16 6
16 Jan 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 40 36 17 7
16 Jan 2020 Midgam Channel 12 40 38 16 6
16 Jan 2020 Kantar Kan 11 41 42 – 17
13 Jan 2020 Midgam Channel 12 39 39 16 6
10 Jan 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom 43 38 – 19
2 Jan 2020 Direct Polls Channel 13 48.5 45.9 5.0 0.6
2 Jan 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 41 33 13 12
2 Jan 2020 Midgam Channel 12 40 39 15 6
1 Jan 2020 Panels Politics Maariv 41 40 – 19
29 Dec 2019 Direct Polls Channel 13 47.5 45.0 5.3 2.1
29 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12 40 38 16 6
12 Dec 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom 42 40 – 18
12 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12 38 37 19 6
9–10 Dec 2019 Midgam Walla! 37 38 16 9
8 Dec 2019 Kantar Kan Radio 41 38 21 –
5 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12 39 37 17 7
28 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom 45 39 – 16
26 Nov 2019 Midgam Channel 12 40 39 14 7
21–22 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom 44 37 – 19
15 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom 43 41 – 16
11 Nov 2019 Midgam Army Radio 44 39 – –
10 Nov 2019 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 40 37 – 23
5 Nov 2019 Midgam Channel 12 40 36 24
Sa'ar vs Gantz
Date Polling firm Publisher Sa'ar Gantz Neither Don't Know
12 Dec 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom 31 36 – 33
12 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12 22 36 30 12
8 Dec 2019 Kantar Kan Radio 28 36 36 –
5 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12 19 36 31 14
26 Nov 2019 Midgam Channel 12 23 40 24 13

Coalition

Some opinion pollsters have asked voters which coalition they would prefer. The tables below list their responses as percentages.

Minority government backed by the Joint List
Date Polling firm Publisher Support Oppose Don't Know
16–17 Feb 2020 Midgam Walla! 28 54 18
13 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12 25 56 19
5–6 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News 29 54 17
11 Nov 2019 Midgam Army Radio 34 59 –
General
Date Polling firm Publisher National unity government Right Left Don't Know
Likud-B&W only w/ right-wing block w/ Yisrael Beiteinu
12–13 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News 19 17 – 30 22 12
5–6 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News 17 17 – 30 23 13
5 Feb 2020 Panels Politics Maariv 26 – 16 23 19 16
12 Dec 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom 30 19 – 20 15 16
21 Nov 2019 Kantar Kan 11 40 24 15 –
15 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom – – 40 28 17 15
National unity government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu
Date Polling firm Publisher Support Oppose Don't Know
13 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12 50 25 25
3–6 Oct 2019 Midgam Walla! 42 50 8
National unity government headed by Benny Gantz
Date Polling firm Publisher Support Oppose Don't Know
13 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12 52 27 21
National unity government
Date Polling firm Publisher Support Oppose Don't Know
5 Feb 2020 Midgam Walla! 52 26 22
Government headed by Benny Gantz
Date Polling firm Publisher National unity government Center-left &
Yisrael Beiteinu 		Other
with Netanyahu without Netanyahu
with Haredim without Haredim with Haredim
9 Nov 2019 Midgam Channel 12 29.1 17.9 20.3 3.2 19 10.5

Notes

  1. ^ Merger of Blue and White, Labor-Gesher and the Democratic Union
  2. Meretz only (thus without the Israel Democratic Party)
  3. Meretz and the Green Party only (thus without the Israel Democratic Party)
  4. Within the Democratic Union
  5. ^ Within the Union of Right-Wing Parties
  6. ^ Prefer a fourth consecutive snap election.

References

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  2. ^ s:he:חוק הבחירות (דרכי תעמולה)#סעיף 16ה (ח) (in Hebrew)
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  29. "סקר מקור ראשון: הבוחר הישראלי מתבצר בעמדותיו מספטמבר". Makor Rishon (in Hebrew). 13 January 2020. Retrieved 14 January 2020.
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  32. ^ Mati Tuchfeld (7 February 2020). "סקר "ישראל היום" ו־"i24NEWS": כחול לבן 36, הליכוד 34 וגוש הימין 57". Israel Hayom (in Hebrew). Retrieved 7 February 2020.
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  34. ^ Tal Shalev (6 February 2020). "סקר וואלה! NEWS: גוש הימין מתחזק במנדט, רוב הציבור תומך בממשלת אחדות". Walla! (in Hebrew). Retrieved 6 February 2020.
  35. Jeremy Saltan (30 January 2020). "29th Poll of 2020 Election: Blue & White 34, Likud 31, Joint List 14, Yamina 9, Shas 9, Labor-Gesher-Meretz 9, UTJ 7, Yisrael Beitenu 7". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. Retrieved 30 January 2020.
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