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Post-election pendulum for the 2012 Queensland state election

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The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2012 Queensland state election.

"Very safe" seats require a swing of more than 20 points to change, "safe" seats10–20 points to change, "fairly safe" seats 6–10 points, and "marginal" seats less than 6 points.

Liberal National seats
Marginal
Bulimba Aaron Dillaway LNP 0.1 points
Maryborough Anne Maddern LNP v IND 0.3 points
Waterford Mike Latter LNP 1.0 points
Thuringowa Sam Cox LNP v KAP 1.4 points
Yeerongpilly Carl Judge LNP 1.4 points
Lytton Neil Symes LNP 1.6 points
Greenslopes Ian Kaye LNP 2.5 points
Sandgate Kerry Millard LNP 2.9 points
Nudgee Jason Woodforth LNP 3.1 points
Cook David Kempton LNP 3.4 points
Hinchinbrook Andrew Cripps LNP v KAP 3.6 points
Capalaba Steve Davies LNP 3.7 points
Ipswich Ian Berry LNP 4.2 points
Logan Michael Pucci LNP 4.8 points
Townsville John Hathaway LNP 4.8 points
Brisbane Central Robert Cavallucci LNP 4.9 points
Mount Coot-tha Saxon Rice LNP 5.4 points
Morayfield Darren Grimwade LNP 5.6 points
Ashgrove Campbell Newman LNP 5.7 points
Fairly safe
Keppel Bruce Young LNP 6.4 points
Stafford Chris Davis LNP 7.1 points
Ipswich West Sean Choat LNP 7.2 points
Burnett Stephen Bennett LNP v IND 8.5 points
Cairns Gavin King LNP 8.9 points
Nanango Deb Frecklington LNP v KAP 9.0 points
Algester Anthony Shorten LNP 9.1 points
Barron River Michael Trout LNP 9.5 points
Ferny Grove Dale Shuttleworth LNP 9.5 points
Murrumba Reg Gulley LNP 9.5 points
Stretton Freya Ostapovitch LNP 9.6 points
Toowoomba North Trevor Watts LNP 9.6 points
Safe
Redcliffe Scott Driscoll LNP 10.1 points
Mundingburra David Crisafulli LNP 10.2 points
Sunnybank Mark Stewart LNP 10.2 points
Beaudesert Jon Krause LNP v KAP 10.6 points
Whitsunday Jason Costigan LNP 10.7 points
Burleigh Michael Hart LNP 11.0 points
Mansfield Ian Walker LNP 11.1 points
Mirani Ted Malone LNP 11.2 points
Broadwater Verity Barton LNP 11.3 points
Albert Mark Boothman LNP 11.9 points
Pumicestone Lisa France LNP 12.1 points
Kallangur Trevor Ruthenberg LNP 12.4 points
Burdekin Rosemary Menkens LNP v KAP 12.5 points
Everton Tim Mander LNP 13.2 points
Callide Jeff Seeney LNP v KAP 13.5 points
Pine Rivers Seath Holswich LNP 13.7 points
Chatsworth Steve Minnikin LNP 13.9 points
Southport Rob Molhoek LNP 14.7 points
Lockyer Ian Rickuss LNP v KAP 14.9 points
Springwood John Grant LNP 15.4 points
Mount Ommaney Tarnya Smith LNP 16.5 points
Gympie David Gibson LNP v KAP 17.3 points
Cleveland Mark Robinson LNP 18.1 points
Bundaberg Jack Dempsey LNP 18.2 points
Gaven Alex Douglas LNP 19.1 points
Indooroopilly Scott Emerson LNP 19.5 points
Very safe
Condamine Ray Hopper LNP v KAP 20.1 points
Currumbin Jann Stuckey LNP 20.2 points
Glass House Andrew Powell LNP 20.4 points
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP 20.4 points
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP 20.6 points
Redlands Peter Dowling LNP 20.9 points
Caloundra Mark McArdle LNP 21.2 points
Toowoomba South John McVeigh LNP 21.6 points
Aspley Tracy Davis LNP 21.7 points
Hervey Bay Ted Sorensen LNP 21.7 points
Coomera Michael Crandon LNP 23.3 points
Moggill Bruce Flegg LNP 23.9 points
Warrego Howard Hobbs LNP v IND 25.1 points
Gregory Vaughan Johnson LNP 25.5 points
Noosa Glen Elmes LNP v GRN 25.5 points
Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP 25.9 points
Buderim Steve Dickson LNP 26.0 points
Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP 26.0 points
Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP 26.3 points
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP 29.5 points
Southern Downs Lawrence Springborg LNP v KAP 29.8 points
Labor seats
Marginal
Mackay Tim Mulherin ALP 0.5 points
Mulgrave Curtis Pitt ALP 1.1 points
Bundamba Jo-Ann Miller ALP 1.8 points
Rockhampton Bill Byrne ALP 3.9 points
South Brisbane Anna Bligh ALP 4.7 points
Woodridge Desley Scott ALP 5.8 points
Fairly safe
Inala Annastacia Palaszczuk ALP 6.9 points
Katter's Australian Party
Mount Isa Rob Katter KAP v LNP 10.0 points
Dalrymple Shane Knuth KAP v LNP 15.2 points
Independents
Nicklin Peter Wellington IND v LNP 4.9 points
Gladstone Liz Cunningham IND v ALP 14.0 points
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