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Following the U.S.-launched 2003 invasion of Iraq, the situation deteriorated, and by 2007, the intercommunal violence between Iraqi Sunni and Shi'a factions was described by the National Intelligence Estimate as having elements of a civil war. In a January 10, 2007 address to the American people, President George W. Bush stated that "80% of Iraq's sectarian violence occurs within 30 miles (48 km) of the capital. This violence is splitting Baghdad into sectarian enclaves, and shaking the confidence of all Iraqis." Two polls of Americans conducted in 2006 found that between 65% to 85% believed Iraq was in a civil war; however, a similar poll of Iraqis conducted in 2007 found that 61% did not believe that they were in a civil war.

In October 2006, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the Iraqi government estimated that more than 365,000 Iraqis had been displaced since the 2006 bombing of the al-Askari Mosque, bringing the total number of Iraqi refugees to more than 1.6 million. By 2008, the UNHCR raised the estimate of refugees to a total of about 4.7 million (~16% of the population). The number of refugees estimated abroad was 2 million (a number close to CIA projections) and the number of internally displaced people was 2.7 million. In 2007, Iraq's anti-corruption board reported that 35% of Iraqi children, or about five million children, were orphans. The Red Cross has also stated that Iraq's humanitarian situation remains among the most critical in the world, with millions of Iraqis forced to rely on insufficient and poor-quality water sources.

According to the Failed States Index, produced by Foreign Policy magazine and the Fund for Peace, Iraq was one of the world's top 5 unstable states from 2005 to 2008. A poll of top U.S. foreign policy experts conducted in 2007 showed that over the next 10 years, just 3% of experts believed the U.S. would be able to rebuild Iraq into a "beacon of democracy" and 58% of experts believed that Sunni-Shiite tensions would dramatically increase in the Middle East.

In June 2008, the U.S. Department of Defense reported that "the security, political and economic trends in Iraq continue to be positive; however, they remain fragile, reversible and uneven." In July 2008, the audit arm of the U.S. Congress recommended that the U.S. Government should "develop an updated strategy for Iraq that defines U.S. goals and objectives after July 2008 and addresses the long-term goal of achieving an Iraq that can govern, defend, and sustain itself". Steven Simon, a Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in May 2008 that "the recent short-term gains" had "come at the expense of the long-term goal of a stable, unitary Iraq."

After Iraqi security forces took the lead in security operations on June 30, 2009, Iraq experienced a "dramatic reduction in war-related violence of all types ..., with civilian and military deaths down by 80 to 90 percent compared with the same period in 2008."

As of late 2010 violence remains at far lower levels than during the worst of the bloodshed in 2006-2007. However hundreds are still killed every month by sectarian groups and insurgents attempting to exploit the perceived weakness of the Iraqi Government. There is much debate on whether or not the "Civil War" has ended as well as heated controversy on how to label the violence that is still a daily feature of life in Iraq.

Ethno-sectarian composition

The Sunni insurgency has used sectarian violence to capitalize on Sunni fears of the Shi'a majority and the Shi'a armed militias have shown a zeal for vigilante justice. However, there are other sectarian divisions of the population that lay in nearly a dozen distinct groups. These groups are subdivided into countless smaller factions.

The sectarian divisions can be divided into several main ideological or ethnic strands:

Ethnic groups:

• Shias (Arabic speaking)  : -60%: By themselves a majority of the population, but for centuries dominated by the Sunni Arab minority. The 2003 invasion of Iraq and establishment of democracy meant an end to the Sunni Arab domination, and seemingly the beginning of the Shia Arab domination of the state.

Sunnis (Arabic speaking) : - 15% : Dominated Iraqi politics and military since 1638 and the Treaty of Zohab that confirmed Ottoman Sunni domination of Iraq. The Coalition invasion of 2003 and the establishment of democracy, ended this centuries long dominance of power by the minority Sunni Arabs.

• Kurdish - 21% : De facto independent administration (mostly Sunnis, small Shi'ite, Yazidi, and other elements).
• Assyrian - 2% : This group has a minor role in the current situation (mostly Christians).
• Turkoman - 2% : This group has a minor role in the current situation (majority Sunni with large Shi'a minority), although Turkey is concerned about their overall treatment in Iraq.

Religions:

• Muslim - 98% : This is the primary religion in Iraq and serves as one of the primary sectarian distinctions.
  • Sunni - 32% : Majority Arabs with Kurds and Turkomans by 3 to 1.
  • Shi'ite - 65% : Mainly Arabs with a very small minority of Kurds and Turkomans.
• Christian, Mandaeans and Yazidi ~ 2% : These groups have a minor role in the current situation.

The Arab-Sunni faction and the Arab-Shi'ite are the main two participants in the violence, but conflicts within a single group have occurred. Iran, it has been conjectured, would assist the Shiites. Sunni-Shiite violence in Iraq, with Iran helping the Shi'ite and Arab nations helping the Sunni, is a possibility. A senior American official has said that during a meeting between Vice President Dick Cheney and Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah in November 2006, the king said that if U.S. forces pulled out of Iraq, the Saudis would be forced to support the Sunni minority.

The Kurds are caught between the two religious groups, but as they are an ethnicity opposed to religious movement, they are often at odds with the Sunni Arabs that were settled in Iraqi Kurdistan by Saddam's Arabization policy. Kurds also sympathise with Shi'ites as Saddam's Sunni regime persecuted both communities. Blurring this cohesion, though, are division of social, economic, political and geographic identities.

Groups known and alleged to take part in the sectarian violence

A multitude of groups form the Iraqi Insurgency which arose in a piecemeal fashion as a reaction to local events and notably the realisation of the U.S. military’s inability to control Iraq. Since 2005 the insurgent forces have largely merged around several main factions, including the Islamic Army in Iraq and Ansar al-Sunna. Religious justification has been used to support the political actions of these groups as well as a marked adherence to Salafism which brands those against the jihad as non believers. This approach has played a role in the rise of sectarian violence. The U.S. military also believe that between 5-10% of insurgent forces are non-Iraqi Arabs.

Independent Shi'ite militias have identified themselves around sectarian ideology and possess various levels of influence and power. There is a strand of militia who were founded in exile and returned to Iraq only after the toppling of Saddam Hussein such as the Badr Organization. There are also militias created since the state collapse, the largest and most uniform of which is the Mahdi Army established by Moqtada al-Sadr and believed to have around 50,000 fighters. Although their participation in the religious terrorism is not universal, the individual members of these militias are known to take part in the attacks on the Sunni and other non-Shia civilians.

Conflict and tactics

v t e Iraq War (2003–2011)
Beginning of the Iraqi conflict
Prelude Background Pre-1990 17 July Revolution Iranian Revolution 1979 Ba'ath Party Purge Iran–Iraq War British / U.S. support for Iraq Chemical attacks against Iran Anfal campaign Iran–Contra affair 1990–2003 Gulf War Invasion of Kuwait Nayirah testimony Sanctions against Iraq No-fly zones 1991 uprisings UNSCOM Arms-to-Iraq affair Oil-for-Food Programme Investigations September 11 attacks Aftermath War on terror 2001 anthrax attacks U.S. War in Afghanistan Invasion Rationale WMD claims Yellowcake uranium Aluminum tubes Biological weapons Chemical weapons "Curveball" Mobile weapon labs Saddam–al-Qaeda conspiracy theory Anthrax claims Prague Ricin claims Oil as a possible rationale Issues American imperialism Bush Doctrine Wolfowitz Doctrine Colin Powell's UN presentation Disarmament crisis UNMOVIC Failed peace initiatives Iraq resolution / UK parliament's support for invasion Iraqi–Kurdish conflict Legality Legitimacy of the invasion Media coverage Military analyst program Rapid response operation Saddam's alleged shredder Preemptive war Saddam Hussein and human rights Dossiers and memos Habbush letter Downing Street memo September Dossier Vilnius letter Letter of the eight Bush–Blair 2003 memo February Dossier Bush–Aznar memo
Overview Key events Invasion (2003) Occupation (2003–2011) Insurgency 2003–06 period Anbar campaign Fallujah Capture of Saddam Hussein Interrogation Trial Execution / Reactions 2006 al-Askari mosque bombing Civil war (2006–08) 2007 U.S. troop surge timeline U.S. withdrawal Status of forces agreement Invasion (2003) Timeline Preparations for invasion Multi-National Force Battle of Nasiriyah Fall of Baghdad Battle of Debecka Pass Firdos Square statue Mission Accomplished speech US public opinion Occupation (2003–2011) Occupation of Ramadi De-Ba'athification 100 Orders CPA Order 2 CPA Order 17 U.S. military bases Blackwater Reconstruction Development Fund Economic reform UNAMI Al Qa'qaa high explosives U.S. kill or capture strategy Replacement governments Coalition Provisional Authority Iraqi Governing Council Interim Government 2005 parliamentary elections Transitional Government Constitution Ratification
Participants Countries Australia Ba'athist Iraq Denmark Georgia Iran Italy Japan Poland South Korea Thailand Ukraine United Kingdom United States Insurgent groups Sunni groups Islamic Army in Iraq 1920 Revolution Brigades Jaish al-Rashideen Islamic Front for the Iraqi Resistance Hamas of Iraq Jeish Muhammad Mujahideen Shura Council Islamic State of Iraq Al-Qaeda in Iraq Jaish al-Ta'ifa al-Mansurah Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad Jamaat Ansar al-Sunna Ansar al-Islam in Kurdistan Black Banner Organization Wakefulness and Holy War Abu Theeb's group Abu Bakr Al-Salafi Army Mujahideen Army Shia groups Mahdi Army Abu Deraa's militia Badr Organization Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq Sheibani Network Soldiers of Heaven Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq Promised Day Brigade Kata'ib Hezbollah Ba'ath loyalists Fedayeen Saddam Al-Awda Popular Army Al-Abud Network Army of the Men of the Naqshbandi Order Supreme Command for Jihad and Liberation
Battles and operations Operations 2003 Ancient Babylon Catalyst Desert Scorpion Desert Thrust Falconer Iron Hammer Iron Justice Ivy Blizzard Northern Delay Airborne Dragon Panther Squeeze Peninsula Strike Planet X Capture of Saddam Hussein (Red Dawn) Telic 2004 Baton Rouge Bulldog Mammoth Iron Saber New Dawn (Al Fajr) Phantom Fury Phantom Linebacker Plymouth Rock Vigilant Resolve Warrior's Rage 2005 Able Rising Force Able Warrior Cyclone Iron Hammer Matador New Market Spear (Romhe) Squeeze Play Steel Curtain 2006 Al Majid Gaugamela Guardian Tiger Iron Triangle River Falcon Sinbad Swarmer Together Forward 2007 Alljah Arbead II Ardennes Black Eagle Commando Eagle Forsythe Park Imposing Law Leyte Gulf Marne Avalanche Marne Torch Mawtini Phantom Strike Phantom Thunder Polar Tempest Purple Haze Saber Guardian Sledgehammer Stampede 3 Tiger Hammer Valiant Guardian (Harris Ba'sil) 2008 Defeat Al Qaeda in the North Augurs of Prosperity Phantom Phoenix 2009–2011 New Dawn Battles 2003 Invasion Umm Qasr Al Faw Basra I Nasiriyah Karbala I Haditha Dam Najaf I Samawah I Karbala II Al Kut Hillah Karbala Gap Debecka Pass Baghdad I Majar al-Kabir Ramadan Offensive 2004 Spring fighting Karbala City Hall Fallujah I Siege of Sadr City Ramadi I Good Friday ambush Baghdad International Airport Husaybah Danny Boy Najaf II CIMIC House Samarra Fallujah II Mosul 2005 Lake Tharthar Abu Ghraib Al-Qa'im Hit convoy Haditha Tal Afar 2006 Baghdad II Ramadi II Diwaniya Al Rumaythah Amarah Turki 2007 Haifa Street Karbala provincial HQ Najaf III Shurta Nasir Basra II Baqubah Route Bismarck Donkey Island Karbala III 2008 Spring fighting Iraqi Day of Ashura Nineveh Basra III Al-Qaeda offensive 2009–2011 Palm Grove (2010) Related events Turkish incursions into northern Iraq 2007 2008 Abu Kamal raid
War crimes Occupation forces Killings and massacres During the 2003 invasion U.S. killings of journalists Fallujah killings Killing of Nadhem Abdullah (2003) Murder of Muhamad Husain Kadir Mukaradeeb wedding party massacre (2004) Haifa Street helicopter incident (2005) Tal Afar shootings (2005) Basra prison incident (2005) Haditha massacre (2005) Mahmudiyah rape and killings (2006) Ishaqi massacre (2006) Baghdad detainee killings (2006) Hamdania incident (2006) Iraqi bodyguard killing (2006) Iron Triangle Murders (2006) Baghdad airstrike (2007) Nisour Square massacre (2007) Iraq War Logs (2010) Chemical weapons Use of white phosphorus by the United States (2004–05) Torture and abuse Abu Ghraib prison (2003–06) Camp Bucca (2003–09) Camp Nama (2003–04) Balad Air Base (2003–2011) Death of Nagem Hatab (2003) Killing of Baha Mousa (2003) Death of Abed Hamed Mowhoush (2003) Killing of Manadel al-Jamadi (2003) Death of Fashad Mohamed (2004) § Other killings and bombings 2003 Jordanian embassy Canal Hotel Imam Ali mosque bombing Baghdad October 2003 2004 Erbil 2004 Ashura massacre Basra 2004 Mosul 2004 2004 church bombings Baghdad bombings 14 September 30 September Karbala and Najaf bombings Baqubah 2004 Kufa mosque bombing 2005 Al Hillah 2005 Erbil 2005 Musayyib bombing Baghdad bombings August September Balad 2005 Khanaqin bombings 2006 Karbala and Ramadi Al-Askari mosque 2006 Buratha mosque bombing Sadr City bombings July November Hayy Al-Jihad massacre 2007 Mustansiriya University Baghdad bombings 22 January 3 February 12 February 18 February 29 March 18 April 26 July 1 August Al Hillah 2007 Tal Afar 2007 Iraqi Parliament 2007 Karbala mosque bombings Massacres of Yazidis April massacre Qahtaniyah bombings Makhmour Abu Sayda Al-Askari mosque 2007 Al-Khilani mosque bombing Amirli bombing Kirkuk 2007 Al Amarah bombings 2008 Bagdad bombings February March June Balad 2008 Karbala 2008 Al-Karmah Dujail bombing Balad Ruz bombing Attacks on Christians in Mosul 2009 Bagdad bombings March 6 April June August October December Baghdad–Miqdadiyah Taza bombing Kirkuk 2009 Tal Afar 2009 2010 Nationwide attacks 10 May 25 August Bagdad bombings January February April August September November Baqubah 2010 Baghdad church massacre 2011 Nationwide attacks January August Bagdad bombings January August October Arba'een bombings Tikrit assault Al Hillah 2011 Samarra bombing Al Diwaniyah bombing Taji bombings Karbala 2011 Basra 2011 Other war crimes Raid on Camp Ashraf (2011) Archaeological looting Chlorine bombings Torture by the Wolf Brigade (2004–2011) Prosecution United States and the International Criminal Court Hague Invasion Act Prosecution for the 2003 invasion Abtan v. Blackwater Hamdan v. Rumsfeld Saleh v. Bush Taguba Report § All attacks listed in this group were either committed by insurgents, or have unknown perpetrators
Impact General Casualties Iraq Body Count Iraq Family Health Survey Lancet surveys ORB survey Damage to Baghdad Al-Aimmah Bridge disaster Human rights Humanitarian crisis 2007 cholera outbreak Financial cost Refugees Iraqi Christians Mandaeans Violence against Iraqi academics Political controversies Post-invasion WMD conjecture Iraq scandal in Finland Dixie Chicks comments Plame affair Hood event Death of David Kelly Hutton Inquiry Kidnapping of Angelo dela Cruz 2004 document leak Al Jazeera bombing memo Scott Thomas Beauchamp controversy MoveOn.org ad controversy Six Days in Fallujah Role of Canada War resisters Investigations Senate Report on WMD Intelligence Duelfer Report Chilcot Inquiry Reactions Pre-war Pre-war international reactions Khuy Voyne! Saddam Hussein interview Views on the invasion U.S. public opinion Opposition Criticism United Nations Oprah's Anti-war series Iraqi map pendant Winter Soldier: Iraq & Afghanistan Photo Op A Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq Bush shoe-throwing incident Protests Halloween 2002 February 15, 2003 March 20, 2003 Bring Them Home Now Tour January 20, 2005 September 24, 2005 January 27, 2007 March 17, 2007 2007 Port of Tacoma September 15, 2007 March 19, 2008 Aftermath in Iraq The rise of ISIL Insurgency (2011–13) War in Iraq (2013–17) War against ISIL (2014–present) U.S.-led intervention in Iraq (2014–2021) Insurgency (2017–present)
Miscellaneous Terminology Axis of evil Outposts of tyranny "Baghdad Bob" "Chemical Ali" Coalition of the willing Dead checking Embedded journalism Freedom fries Friedman Unit "Mother of All Bombs" "Mrs. Anthrax" Old Europe and New Europe Regime change Shock and awe "Sixteen Words" "Smoking gun / mushroom cloud" Star Spangled Ice Cream Strategic reset "There are unknown unknowns" Triangle of Death "Yo, Blair" Critical Global arrogance Inverted totalitarianism "The wrong war, at the wrong place, at the wrong time" Memorials Afghan–Iraqi Freedom Memorial (Salem, Oregon) Al-Shaheed Monument Iraq and Afghanistan Memorial (London) Northwood Gratitude and Honor Memorial Old North Memorial Garden Saving Iraqi Culture Lists Assassinations Aviation shootdowns and accidents Bombings Coalition military operations Documentaries Iraqi security forces fatality reports Most-wanted Iraqi playing cards Private contractor deaths Timeline 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Related Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty Chelsea Manning CIA black sites Efforts to impeach George W. Bush "Enhanced interrogation techniques" Torture in the United States Extraordinary rendition Green Zone Guantanamo Bay detention camp Gulf of Tonkin incident Resolution Military–industrial complex Neoconservatism Patriot Act Petrodollar warfare theory Post-9/11 Special Relationship The Iraq War: A Historiography of Misplaced Pages Changelogs Unilateralism Unitary executive theory U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East WikiLeaks Ba'ath Party archives
Outline / Category / Wikinews / Multimedia

Non-military targets

Some analysts suspect that the aim of these attacks is to sow chaos and sectarian discord. The attacks on non-military and civilian targets began in earnest in August 2003. Iraqi casualties have increased since then.

Bomb and mortar attacks

The bomb attacks aimed at civilians usually target crowded places such as marketplaces and mosques in the Shi'ite cities and districts. The bombings, which are sometimes co-ordinated, often inflict extreme casualties.

For example, the 23 November 2006 Sadr City bombings killed at least 215 people and injured hundreds more in the Sadr City district of Baghdad, sparking reprisal attacks, or the 3 February 2007 Baghdad market bombing which killed at least 135 and injured more than 300, while the co-ordinated 2 March 2004 Iraq Ashura bombings (including car bombs, suicide bombers and mortar, grenade and rocket attacks) killed at least 178 people and injured at least 500.

Suicide bombings

Since August 2003, suicide car bombs have been increasingly used as weapons by Sunni militants, primarily al-Qaeda extremists. The car bombs, known in the military as vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (IEDs), have emerged as one of their most effective weapons, directed not only against civilian targets but also against the Iraqi police stations and recruiting centers.

These vehicle IEDs are often driven by the extremists from the foreign Muslim countries with a history of militancy, such as Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Egypt, and Pakistan.

Death squads

Death squad-style killings in Iraq have taken place in a variety of ways. Kidnapping, followed by often extreme torture (such as drilling holes in peoples feet with drills ) and execution-style killings, sometimes public (in some cases, beheadings), have emerged as another tactic. In some cases, tapes of the execution are distributed for propaganda purposes. The bodies are usually dumped on a roadside or in other places, several at a time. There were also several relatively large-scale massacres, like the Hay al Jihad massacre in which some 40 Sunnis were killed in a response to the car bombing which killed a dozen of Shi'ites.

The death squads are often disgruntled Shi'ites, including members of the security forces, who kill Sunnis to avenge the consequences of the insurgency against the Shi'ite-dominated government.

Attacks and occupations on places of worship

On February 22, 2006, the highly provocative explosion took place at the al-Askari Mosque in the Iraqi city of Samarra, one of the holiest sites in Shi'a Islam, believed to have been caused by a bomb planted by al-Qaeda in Iraq. Although no injuries occurred in the blast, the mosque was severely damaged and the bombing resulted in violence over the following days. Over 100 dead bodies with bullet holes were found on the next day, and at least 165 people are thought to have been killed. In the aftermath of this attack the U.S. military calculated that the average homicide rate in Baghdad tripled from 11 to 33 deaths per day.

Dozens of Iraqi mosques were since attacked or taken-over by the sectarian forces. For example, a Sunni ( Al Qaeda) mosque was burnt in the southern Iraqi town of Haswa on March 25, 2007, in the revenge for the destruction of a Shia mosque in the town the previous day. In several cases, Christian churches were also attacked by the extremists. Later, another al-Askari bombing took place in June 2007.

Iraq's Christian minority also has become a target by Al Qaeda Sunnis because of conflicting theological ideas.

Sectarian desertions

Some Iraqi service members have deserted the military or the police and others have refused to serve in hostile areas. For example, some members of one sect have refused to serve in neighborhoods dominated by other sects. The ethnic Kurdish soldiers from northern Iraq, who are mostly Sunnis but not Arabs, were also reported to be deserting the army to avoid the civil strife in Baghdad, a conflict they consider someone else's problem.

Timeline

For more information on events in a specific year, see the associated timeline page.

Potential effects of the sectarian attacks

An article in The Washington Post, published on August 20, 2006, reported that a full-blown Iraq civil war might result in the death of hundreds of thousands of people and turn millions of people into refugees. The ethnic unrest could also spill over to the rest of the region, with "copycat secession attempts" in neighbouring countries, such as Kuwait, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon, as these countries have similar ethnic diversity. Citing the history of Taliban and Rwandan Patriotic Front as examples, the report warned that refugee camps often become a sanctuary and recruiting ground for militias, thus spreading the conflict to a wider area. Civil war could lead to increased radicalism and terrorism: Hezbollah and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam were formed as a result of civil wars. Based on lessons learned from the Lebanese and Bosnian civil wars, the report predicted that if an all-out civil war were to break out in Iraq, the U.S.-led coalition would require 450,000 troops to quash it.

An article in The International Herald Tribune, published on November 26, 2006, paraphrased a report from a group of American professors at Stanford University that the insurgency in Iraq amounted to the classic definition of a civil war.

Growth in refugee flight

By 2008, the UNHCR raised the estimate of refugees to a total of about 4.7 million, with 2 million displaced internally and 2.7 million displaced externally. In April 2006 the Ministry of Displacement and Migration estimated that "nearly 70,000 displaced Iraqis, especially from the capital, are living in deteriorating conditions,” due to ongoing sectarian violence. Roughly 40% of Iraq's middle class is believed to have fled, the U.N. said. Most are fleeing systematic persecution and have no desire to return. Refugees are mired in poverty as they are generally barred from working in their host countries. A May 25, 2007 article notes that in the past seven months only 69 people from Iraq have been granted refugee status in the United States.

Use of "civil war" label

The use of the term "civil war" has been controversial, with a number of commentators preferring the term "civil conflict". A poll of over 5,000 Iraqi nationals found that 27% of polled Iraqi residents agreed that Iraq was in a civil war, while 61% thought Iraq was not. Two similar polls of Americans conducted in 2006 found that between 65% to 85% believed Iraq was in a civil war.

In the United States, the term has been politicized. Deputy leader of the United States Senate, Dick Durbin, referred to "this civil war in Iraq" in a criticism of George W. Bush's January 10, 2007, President's Address to the Nation.

An unclassified summary of the 90-page January 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, titled Prospects for Iraq's Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead, states the following regarding the use of the term "civil war":

The Intelligence Community judges that the term “civil war” does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict in Iraq, which includes extensive Shia-on-Shia violence, al-Qa’ida and Sunni insurgent attacks on Coalition forces, and widespread criminally motivated violence. Nonetheless, the term “civil war” accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict, including the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the violence, ethno-sectarian mobilization, and population displacements.

Retired United States Army General Barry McCaffrey issued a report on March 26, 2007, after a trip and analysis of the situation in Iraq. The report labeled the current situation a "low-grade civil war." In page 3 of the report, he writes that:

"Iraq is ripped by a low-grade civil war which has worsened to catastrophic levels with as many as 3000 citizens murdered per month. The population is in despair. Life in many of the urban areas is now desperate. A handful of foreign fighter (500+)--and a couple thousand Al Qaeda operatives incite open factional struggle through suicide bombings which target Shia holy places and innocent civilians...The police force is feared as a Shia militia in uniform which is responsible for thousands of extra-judicial killings."

See also

• Casualties of the conflict in Iraq since 2003
• Historical Shi'a-Sunni relations
• Iraqi insurgency
• Post-invasion Iraq, 2003–present

Events:

• 2 March 2004 Iraq Ashura bombings
• 23 November 2006 Sadr City bombings
• 22 January 2007 Baghdad bombings
• 3 February 2007 Baghdad market bombing
• Hay al Jihad massacre

General:

• Ethnic cleansing
• Ethnic conflict
• Sectarianism
• Religion in Iraq
• Religious war

Bibliography

• Iraq Study Group, The Iraq Study Group Report: The Way Forward - A New Approach (2006)
• Nir Rosen, In the Belly of the Green Bird: The Triumph of the Martyrs in Iraq (2006)

Films

• Iraq in Fragments, documentary (2006)

References

1. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aslB2LAf_hWs
2. Iraq Government Vows to Disband Sunnis
3. Reuters: April Iraq's deadliest month since last August
4. http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L15886020.htm
5. • International Crisis Group: "Iraq’s Civil War, the Sadrists and the Surge". Released on February 7, 2008.
   • The Costs of Containing Iran. Nasr, Vali and Takeyh, Ray (Jan/Feb 2008).

     to preserve the territorial integrity of Iraq and prevent the civil war there from engulfing the Middle East.

   • International Crisis Group: "Iraq after the Surge I: The New Sunni Landscape". Released on April 30, 2008.
6. Iraq Body Count Retrieved 18 September 2007.
7. 2006 Study of Iraq Mortality
8. "Opinion Research Business (ORB) poll: More than 1,000,000 Iraqis murdered". September 2007. Opinion Research Business.
10. The Brookings Institution Iraq Index: Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-Saddam Iraq 1 October 2007
11. Pincus, Walter (November 17, 2006). "Violence in Iraq Called Increasingly Complex". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 30, 2010.
12. Ricks, Thomas E. "Intensified Combat on Streets Likely". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 30, 2010.
13. Page 2
14. "Using that self aggrandizing, self appointed title, al Hassan built up a force of a thousand men" The Hidden Imam's Dream - Sky News, January 30, 2007
15. "Private contractors outnumber U.S. troops in Iraq". By T. Christian Miller. Los Angeles Times. July 4, 2007.
16. "Contractor deaths add up in Iraq". By Michelle Roberts. Deseret Morning News. Feb. 24, 2007.
17. Collins, C. (August 19, 2007) "U.S. says Iranians train Iraqi insurgents," McClatchy Newspapers
18. A Dark Side to Iraq 'Awakening' Groups
19. Shi'as Peril
20. Ten Fallacies about the Violence in Iraq
21. http://icasualties.org/Iraq/index.aspx
22. http://icasualties.org/Iraq/IraqiDeaths.aspx
23. "Elements of 'civil war' in Iraq". BBC News. 2007-02-02. Retrieved January 2, 2010. A US intelligence assessment on Iraq says "civil war" accurately describes certain aspects of the conflict, including intense sectarian violence.
24. "President's Address to the Nation". The White House. 2007-01-10.
25. ^ Poll: Nearly two-thirds of Americans say Iraq in civil war
26. ^ 12/06 CBS: 85% of Americans now characterize the situation in Iraq as a Civil War
27. ^ Colvin, Marie (2007-03-18). "Iraqis: life is getting better". London: The Times. Retrieved April 30, 2010.
28. Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
29. "CIA World Factbook: Iraq"
30. ^ UNHCR - Iraq: Latest return survey shows few intending to go home soon. Published April 29, 2008. Retrieved May 20, 2008.
31. 5 million Iraqi orphans, anti-corruption board reveals English translation of Aswat Al Iraq newspaper December 15, 2007
32. Iraq: No let-up in the humanitarian crisis
33. • "Failed States list 2005". Fund for Peace. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |downloaded= ignored (help)
    • "Failed States list 2006". Fund for Peace. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |downloaded= ignored (help)
    • "Failed States list 2007". Fund for Peace. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |downloaded= ignored (help)
    • "Failed States list 2008". Fund for Peace. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |downloaded= ignored (help)
34. U.S. foreign policy experts oppose surge
35. Foreign Policy: Terrorism Survey III (Final Results)
36. " US Department of Defense (June 2008): Measuring Security and Stability in Iraq
37. US Government Accountability Office (June 2008): Securing, Stabilizing, and Rebuilding Iraq
38. Council on Foreign Relations: The Price of the Surge
39. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/13/world/middleeast/13iraq.html New York Times 10-12-2009
40. Buchanan, Patrick, "Is America’s war in Iraq winding up?". August 4, 2005
41. CNN "Official: Saudis to back Sunnis if U.S. leaves Iraq?".December 12. 2006
42. "US exit may lead to Iraqi civil war". November 19, 2003
43. ^ Toby Dodge (2007). ‘The Causes of US Failure in Iraq’. Survival. Vol. 49, No. 1
44. International Crisis Group. ‘In Their Own Words: Reading the Iraqi Insurgency’. Middle East Report No. 50, 15th February 2006
45. Roel Meijer, ‘The Sunni Resistance and the Political Process’ in Markus Bouillion, David Malone and Ben Rowsell (eds). Preventing Another Generation of Conflict. USA: Lynne Rienner Publishers
46. John Hopkins School of Puclic Health: Iraqi Civilian Deaths Increase Dramatically After Invasion
47. Wall Street Journal: The Truth About Iraq's Casualty Count
48. AFP: Bomb attack kills more than 40 near Iraq Shiite shrine
49. CNN: Pair of bombs kills 53 in Baghdad, officials say
50. Al Jazeera English - News - Iraq Mosque Burnt In Revenge Attack
51. BBC Analysis: Iraq's Christians under attack
53. ^ Former CIA Officer Says Iraq Can Be Stabilized By Trained Security Forces PBS
54. Kurdish Iraqi Soldiers Are Deserting to Avoid the Conflict in Baghdad
55. Daniel L. Byman, and Kenneth M. Pollack (2006-08-20). "A Domino Theory for the New Mideast: What Happens When Iraq Runneth Over". The Washington Post.
56. Edward Wong (2006-11-26). "Scholars agree Iraq meets definition of 'civil war'". The International Herald Tribune.
57. IRAQ: Sectarian violence continues to spur displacement
58. 40% of middle class believed to have fled crumbling nation
59. Doors closing on fleeing Iraqis
60. Displaced Iraqis running out of cash, and prices are rising
61. Ann McFeatters: Iraq refugees find no refuge in America. Seattle Post-Intelligencer May 25, 2007
62. Susan Milligan, "Democrats say they will force lawmakers to vote on increase". July 11, 2006
63. President's Address to the Nation
64. "Prospects for Iraq's Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead (PDF)" (PDF). National Intelligence Estimate. January 2007.
65. http://www.defensetech.org/archives/Iraq%20After%20action.pdf

External links

• Refugees Report "The Iraqi Displacement Crisis" March 2008.
• United States Dept. of Homeland Security Fact Sheet on admitting Iraqi refugees to the United States March 2008.
• Sami Ramadani interview "Iraq is not a civil war" Spring 2007.
• Taheri, Amir. "There is no Civil War in Iraq, Gulf News, December 6, 2006.
• Phillips, David L., "Federalism can prevent Iraq civil war", July 20, 2005.
• Hider, James, "Weekend of slaughter propels Iraq towards all-out civil war", July 18, 2005.
• Ramadani, Sami, "Occupation and Civil War", UK Guardian, July 8, 2005.
• Phelps, Timothy M., "Experts: Iraq Verges on Civil War". Newsday, 12 May 2005.
• Strobel, Warren P., and Jonathan S. Landay, "CIA Officers Warn of Iraq Civil War, Contradicting Bush's Optimism", Knight-Ridder, January 22, 2004.
• "US exit may lead to Iraqi civil war", November 19, 2003.
• Dunnigan, James, "The Coming Iraqi Civil War", April 4, 2003

v t e Armed groups in the Iraqi conflict
Iraqi government	Iraqi Armed Forces Iraqi Army Iraqi Air Force Iraqi Navy Iraqi security forces Iraqi Police Iraqi Police Service National Police Supporting Forces Facilities Protection Service
Ba'athists	Army of the Men of the Naqshbandi Order Fedayeen Saddam General Military Council for Iraqi Revolutionaries Al-Awda General Command of the Armed Forces, Resistance and Liberation in Iraq Popular Army New Return Patriotic Front Political Media Organ of the Ba'ath Party Popular Resistance for the Liberation of Iraq Al-Abud Network Free Iraqi Army
Militias and others	Shia Islamic militias Popular Mobilization Forces Mahdi Army Abu Deraa's Mahdi Army faction Badr Organization Sheibani Network Soldiers of Heaven Free Iraqi Forces Special Groups (Iraq) Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq Promised Day Brigade Kata'ib Hezbollah Saraya Ansar al-Aqeeda Kata'ib al-Imam Ali Kata'ib Jund al-Imam Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba Saraya al-Jihad Abu al-Fadl al-Abbas Forces Harakat Ansar Allah al-Awfiya Quwwat Sahl Ninawa Mukhtar Army Hezbollah Liwa Abu al-Fadhal al-Abbas Jaysh al-Mu'ammal Liwa Ali al-Akbar Islamic Resistance in Iraq Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada Sunni Islamic militias Tribal Mobilization Awakening groups 1920 Revolution Brigades Jaish al-Rashideen Islamic Army in Iraq Islamic Front for the Iraqi Resistance Hamas of Iraq Harakat Ahrar al-Iraq Kurdish militias Peshmerga Kurdistan Workers' Party Kurdistan Freedom Hawks Asayîşa Êzîdxanê Turkmen militias Iraqi Turkmen Front 16Brigade 52nd Brigade 92nd Brigade Brigade of Imam Hussein Sayyid al-Shuhada Bashir Regiment Assyrian militias Nineveh Plains Nineveh Plain Protection Units Nineveh Plain Forces Qaraqosh Protection Committee Dwekh Nawsha Syriac Military Council Kataib Rouh Allah Issa Ibn Miriam Babylon Brigade Yazidi militias Asayîşa Êzîdxanê Êzîdxan Protection Force Sinjar Alliance Sinjar Resistance Units Êzîdxan Women's Units
Insurgents	Nationalist Salafis Mujahideen Army Mujahideen Battalions of the Salafi Group of Iraq Islamic Salafist Boy Scout Battalions Mohammad's Army Salafi Jihadists Al-Mustafa Army in Iraq Ansar al-Islam in Kurdistan Black Banner Organization Abu Theeb's group Abu Bakr Al-Salafi Army Hassan Al-Basri Brigades Jamaat Ansar al-Sunna Jamaat Jaysh Ahl al-Sunnah wa-l-Jamaah Islamic State Mujahideen Shura Council Jaish al-Ta'ifa al-Mansurah Al-Qaeda in Iraq Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad Shield of Islam Brigade Wakefulness and Holy War White Flags

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