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United States presidential election, 2016

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v t e

The United States presidential election of 2016 is expected to be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. It will be the 58th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters in the election will select presidential electors who in turn will elect a new President and Vice President of the United States. The incumbent president, Barack Obama, is ineligible to be elected to a third term because of term limits in the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution.

Background

Article Two of the United States Constitution provides that for a person to be elected and serve as President of the United States, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old, and a resident of the United States for a period of no less than 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party devises a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf.

Democrat Barack Obama, a former U.S. Senator from Illinois, is due to complete his second and final term in office on January 20, 2017. In the United States presidential election, 2008, Obama defeated Republican Senator John McCain from Arizona, receiving 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote. He was reelected in the 2012 election, defeating former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney with 51.1% of the popular vote and 62% of the electoral vote. Obama is not eligible to seek reelection to a third term due to restrictions set by the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution. During his second term, President Obama's approval ratings have been listed by Gallup as between 40 and 50 percent. His approval reading is widely seen as an indicator for how well the Democratic Party will do in the 2016 election.

2012 election

In the 2012 election, incumbent President Barack Obama defeated Governor Mitt Romney, with 51.1% of the popular vote and 62% of the electoral vote. A CNN article published on the day of the election listed a few examples of imprudent remarks made by Romney during the campaign, Obama's poor performance during the first presidential debate, speeches made at the parties' respective national conventions, as well as some current events (such as Hurricane Sandy and the 2012 Benghazi attack) as the defining moments of the 2012 election. Romney was surprised by the loss and had not prepared a concession speech until after the major networks began predicting Obama's reelection.

Speculation about the 2016 campaign began almost immediately following the 2012 campaign, with New York magazine declaring the race had begun in an article published on November 8, 2012, two days after the 2012 election. On the same day, Politico released an article predicting the 2016 general election may be between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, while a New York Times article named Chris Christie and Cory Booker as potential candidates.

2014 midterm elections

In the United States elections for the Senate and House in 2012, Republicans retained their majority of seats in the House of Representatives despite minor losses while Democrats increased their majority in the Senate. Subsequently, in the 2014 midterm elections, the Republicans won a majority of seats in both Houses of Congress, increasing their majority in the House and gaining a majority in the Senate.

Primaries

Democratic Party

Former Secretary of State and United States Senator Hillary Clinton became the first Democrat to announce a candidacy for the presidency, which she did via a video on April 12, 2015. According to nationwide opinion polls in 2015, Clinton is considered the front-runner for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. Senator Bernie Sanders became the second candidate when he made a formal announcement he was running on April 30. While not the front-runner, as of July 1, Sanders's campaign stops have been drawing the largest crowds of any of the candidates in the run for president. Former Governor of Maryland Martin O'Malley was the third candidate to enter the race, which he did on May 30, 2015. Lincoln Chafee, former Governor of Rhode Island, announced his candidacy on June 3, 2015. Finally, former Senator Jim Webb announced his campaign on July 2, 2015.

Declared

Individuals included in this section have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the presidential nomination the Democratic Party; filed as a Democratic presidential candidate with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed alphabetically by surname.

Candidates featured in major polls

The candidates included in this section have been listed in five or more major independent nationwide polls.

• Lincoln Chafee (campaign), Governor of Rhode Island 2011–2015; U.S. Senator from Rhode Island 1999–2007
• Hillary Clinton (campaign), U.S. Secretary of State 2009–2013; U.S. Senator from New York 2001–2009; presidential candidate in 2008; First Lady of the United States 1993–2001
• Martin O'Malley (campaign), Governor of Maryland 2007–2015; Mayor of Baltimore 1999–2007
• Bernie Sanders (campaign), U.S. Senator from Vermont since 2007; U.S. Representative 1991–2007; Mayor of Burlington 1981–1989
• Jim Webb (campaign), U.S. Senator from Virginia 2007–2013; U.S. Secretary of the Navy 1987–1988

• Former Governor
  Lincoln Chafee
  of Rhode Island
  (campaign)
• Former Secretary of State
  Hillary Clinton
  of New York
  (campaign)
• Former Governor
  Martin O'Malley
  of Maryland
  (campaign)
• U.S. Senator
  Bernie Sanders
  of Vermont
  (campaign)
• Former U.S. Senator
  Jim Webb
  of Virginia
  (campaign)

Other candidates

The following notable individuals have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy; filed as a candidate with FEC.

• Jeff Boss, 9/11 Truther and perennial candidate from New Jersey
• Robby Wells, Reform Party and Constitution Party presidential candidate in 2012 from North Carolina
• Willie Wilson, businessman and 2015 Chicago mayoral candidate from Illinois

Publicly expressed interest

• Joe Biden, Vice President of the United States since 2009; U.S. Senator from Delaware 1973–2009; presidential candidate in 1988 and 2008

Republican Party

United States Senator Ted Cruz became the first major candidate to announce a campaign in the 2016 election, which he did on March 23, 2015. Senator Rand Paul became the next candidate to announce on April 7, 2015. Marco Rubio, Senator of Florida, became the next candidate, announcing on April 13. Both neurosurgeon Ben Carson and businesswoman Carly Fiorina announced their candidacies on May 4, 2015. Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas, announced his candidacy the next day. 2012 presidential candidate and former Senator Rick Santorum announced his campaign on May 27. New York Governor George Pataki was the next to announce, doing so on May 28, 2015. Lindsey Graham, Senator from South Carolina announced he was running on June 1. Former Governor of Texas Rick Perry, who also ran in 2012, announced he was running again on June 4. Former Governor of Florida Jeb Bush joined the race on June 15. Real estate developer and reality TV host Donald Trump announced he was running on June 16. Bobby Jindal, the Governor of Louisiana, announced his campaign on June 24. Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey is the most recent candidate to announce he was running, which he did on June 30.

Declared

Individuals included in this section have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the presidential nomination of the Republican Party; filed as a Republican presidential candidate with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed alphabetically by surname.

Candidates featured in major polls

Candidates included in this section have been listed in five or more major independent nationwide polls.

• Jeb Bush (campaign), Governor of Florida 1999–2007; Florida Secretary of Commerce 1987–1988
• Ben Carson (campaign), former Director of Pediatric Neurosurgery for Johns Hopkins Hospital
• Chris Christie (campaign), Governor of New Jersey since 2010; U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey 2002–2008
• Ted Cruz (campaign), U.S. Senator from Texas since 2013; Solicitor General of Texas 2003–2008
• Carly Fiorina (campaign), former Hewlett-Packard CEO 1999–2005; California Senate nominee in 2010
• Lindsey Graham (campaign), U.S. Senator from South Carolina since 2003; U.S. Representative from South Carolina 1995–2003
• Mike Huckabee (campaign), presidential candidate in 2008, Governor of Arkansas 1996–2007; Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas 1993–1996
• Bobby Jindal (campaign), Governor of Louisiana since 2008; U.S. Representative from Louisiana 2005–2008
• John Kasich (campaign), Governor of Ohio since 2011; U.S. Representative from Ohio 1983–2001
• George Pataki (campaign), Governor of New York 1995–2006
• Rand Paul (campaign), U.S. Senator from Kentucky since 2011
• Rick Perry (campaign), Governor of Texas 2000–2015, presidential candidate in 2012, Lieutenant Governor 1999–2000, Commissioner of Agriculture, 1991–1999
• Marco Rubio (campaign), U.S. Senator from Florida since 2011; Speaker of the Florida House 2007–2009
• Rick Santorum (campaign), U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania 1995–2007; U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania 1991–1995; presidential candidate in 2012
• Donald Trump (campaign), business magnate; Chairman of The Trump Organization since 1971
• Scott Walker (campaign), Governor of Wisconsin since 2011

• Former Governor
  Jeb Bush
  of Florida
  (campaign)
• Neurosurgeon
  Ben Carson
  of Maryland
  (campaign)
• Governor
  Chris Christie
  of New Jersey
  (campaign)
• U.S. Senator
  Ted Cruz
  of Texas
  (campaign)
• Businesswoman
  Carly Fiorina
  of Virginia
  (campaign)
• U.S. Senator
  Lindsey Graham
  of South Carolina
  (campaign)
• Former Governor
  Mike Huckabee
  of Arkansas
  (campaign)
• Governor
  Bobby Jindal
  of Louisiana
  (campaign)
• Governor
  John Kasich
  of Ohio
  (campaign)
• Former Governor
  George Pataki
  of New York
  (campaign)
• U.S. Senator
  Rand Paul
  of Kentucky
  (campaign)
• Former Governor
  Rick Perry
  of Texas
  (campaign)
• U.S. Senator
  Marco Rubio
  of Florida
  (campaign)
• Former U.S. Senator
  Rick Santorum
  of Pennsylvania
  (campaign)
• Businessman
  Donald Trump
  of New York
  (campaign)
• Governor
  Scott Walker
  of Wisconsin
  (campaign)

Other candidates

The following notable individuals have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy; filed as a candidate with FEC.

• Mark Everson, former Commissioner of Internal Revenue, former President of the American Red Cross from Mississippi
• Jack Fellure, retired engineer from West Virginia; 2012 Prohibition Party presidential nominee
• Charles Long, former professor and senior staff member at Johns Hopkins University from Mayrland>

Announcement impending

• Jim Gilmore, Governor of Virginia; 1998–2002; announcement expected during the first week of August

Publicly expressed interest

• Bob Ehrlich, Governor of Maryland 2003–2007; U.S. Representative from Maryland 1995–2003

Third party and independent candidates

Declared

Individuals included in this section have taken one or more of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the presidential nomination of a minor party; formally announced intention to run as an independent candidate; filed as a minor party or non-affiliated candidate with the FEC (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed by minor party and then alphabetically by surname.

Declared – Green Party

• Jill Stein, physician and 2012 Green Party presidential nominee from Massachusetts

Declared – Libertarian Party

• Robert David Steele, activist and author seeking Libertarian Party nomination; candidate for the Reform Party's nomination in 2012

Declared – Peace and Freedom Party

• Roseanne Barr, entertainer from Hawaii; Peace and Freedom Party's 2012 presidential nominee

Declared - Prohibition Party

• James Hedges, Tax Assessor for Thompson Township, Fulton County, Pennsylvania 2002-2007

Declared – independent candidates or candidates without a specified affiliation

• Dan Bilzerian, Internet personality
• Zoltan Istvan, futurist, writer, transhumanist philosopher from California; founder of a proposed Transhumanist Party
• Terry Jones, pastor for Dove World Outreach Center from Florida; presidential candidate in 2012
• Juaquin James Malphurs (Waka Flocka Flame), rap artist from Georgia (Constitutionally ineligible – under age 35)
• Vermin Supreme, performance artist and perennial candidate from Massachusetts
• Ted Williams, voice-over artist from Ohio

Potential candidates

The individuals listed below have been identified by reliable media sources as potential candidates for president in 2016. The individual listed under "Formally exploring a candidacy" has formed an exploratory committee to build the groundwork for a possible presidential campaign. As of July 2015, a potential candidate has expressed an interest in running for President but has not taken any formal actions.

Formally exploring a candidacy – Green Party

• Darryl Cherney, musician and environmental activist from California; formed an exploratory committee

Publicly expressed interest – Libertarian Party

• Gary Johnson, Governor of New Mexico 1995–2003; presidential nominee in 2012

Third party ballot access

The following third parties presently have confirmed ballot status in enough states to theoretically reach at least 270 electoral votes, the minimum amount required to be elected.

Green Party

Ballot Access: Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Washington D.C., Florida, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin – (296 Electoral Votes)

Libertarian Party

Ballot Access: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming (366 electoral votes)

Potential battleground states

In every state except Maine and Nebraska, the winner of the popular vote in the state wins all of the electoral votes of the state (although state legislatures can, by law, change how votes are allocated). Recent presidential campaigns have generally focused their resources on a relatively small number of competitive states. Potential battleground states include Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. Democrats have discussed targeting Arizona, Georgia, and Texas as potentially competitive states. Meanwhile, Republicans may also target Minnesota and New Jersey. Other states may also become competitive if the close races of 2016 differ from the close races of the 2012 election, or if 2016 becomes a landslide election. Both major parties might decide to target the home states of their nominees or that of their running mates if they are from a swing state or have high favorability in the state or region.

Party conventions

Democratic Party

• July 25–28, 2016: Democratic National Convention to be held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Republican Party

• July 18–21, 2016: Republican National Convention to be held in Cleveland, Ohio.

Libertarian Party

• May 26–30, 2016: Libertarian National Convention to be held in Orlando, Florida.

Debates

On April 1, 2015, the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) announced that each of the following 16 locations are under consideration to host one of the three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate:

• Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee
• Birmingham, Alabama
• Dominican University of California in San Rafael, California
• Eastern Kentucky University in Richmond, Kentucky
• Georgia College & State University in Milledgeville, Georgia
• Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York
• Jacksonville University in Jacksonville, Florida
• Longwood University in Farmville, Virginia
• State University of New York Rockland Community College in Suffern, New York
• University of Nevada, Las Vegas
• Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri
• West Virginia University and West Virginia State University in Charleston, West Virginia
• Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio
• Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas
• Houston Community College in Houston, Texas
• McAllen, Texas

The three locations which will host the presidential debates, and the one location selected to host the vice presidential debate, are to be announced by the CPD in the fall of 2015.

Debate lawsuit

On June 22, 2015, the advocacy group Level the Playing Field, along with Peter Ackerman, the Green Party, and the Libertarian National Committee, filed a complaint for declaratory and injunctive relief against the Federal Election Commission in the United States District Court for the District of Columbia alleging that its failure to uphold debate fairness laws and address the corruption of the CPD after multiple unresolved requests to do so intentionally excluded third parties from the election process. While a decision has not yet been reached, the FEC did take up the original complaint in a July 16 meeting, with a motion to open rulemaking failing 2-4 (Commissioners Ravel (D) and Weintraub (D) voting aye and Commissioners Goodman (R), Hunter (R), Petersen (R), and Walther (D) voting no).

Polling

General election polling

• Nationwide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2016
• Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2016

Democratic primary polling

• Nationwide opinion polling for the Democratic Party 2016 presidential primaries
• Statewide opinion polling for the Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016

Republican primary polling

• Nationwide opinion polling for the Republican Party 2016 presidential primaries
• Statewide opinion polling for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016

See also

• United States Senate elections, 2016
• United States House of Representatives elections, 2016
• United States gubernatorial elections, 2016
• United States presidential election, 2016 timeline

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External links

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