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The 2012 congressional election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, to determine who would represent the state of Montana in the United States House of Representatives. At the time, Montana had one seat in the House. Incumbent Denny Rehberg did not run for reelection, choosing instead to run unsuccessfully for the seat in the U.S. Senate. A primary election was held on June 5, 2012. Republican businessman Steve Daines won the open seat.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Steve Daines, businessman and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2008
Eliminated in primary
- Eric Brosten, author and engineer
- Vincent Melkus, student at Colorado Mesa University and former Marine
Withdrawn
- John Abarr, white supremacist and Ku Klux Klan organizer.
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Abarr |
Steve Daines |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 382 | ± 5.0% | 14% | 22% | — | 64% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Steve Daines | 82,843 | 71.2 | |
| Republican | Eric Brosten | 21,012 | 18.1 | |
| Republican | Vincent Melkus | 12,420 | 10.7 | |
| Total votes | 116,275 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Kim Gillan, state senator from Billings
Eliminated in primary
- Sam Rankin, real estate salesman and candidate for this seat in 2010
- Diane Smith, businesswoman
- Dave Strohmaier, Missoula city council member
- Rob Stutz, attorney
- Jason Ward, farmer and construction manager for the Crow Nation
- Franke Wilmer, state representative from Bozeman
Declined
- Melinda Gopher, writer and candidate for this seat in 2010
- Brian Schweitzer, Governor of Montana
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kim Gillan |
Sam Rankin |
Diane Smith |
Dave Strohmaier |
Rob Stutz |
Jason Ward |
Franke Wilmer |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 26–29, 2012 | 332 | ± 5.4% | 21% | 4% | 13% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 11% | 41% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Kim Gillan | 25,077 | 31.0 | |
| Democratic | Franke Wilmer | 14,836 | 18.4 | |
| Democratic | Diane Smith | 12,618 | 15.6 | |
| Democratic | Dave Strohmaier | 11,366 | 14.1 | |
| Democratic | Sam Rankin | 9,382 | 11.6 | |
| Democratic | Jason Ward | 4,959 | 6.1 | |
| Democratic | Rob Stutz | 2,586 | 3.2 | |
| Total votes | 80,824 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- David Kaiser
General election
Endorsements
Steve Daines (R)Organizations
- National Republican Congressional Committee "Vanguard" Program
Organizations
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Red to Blue" Program
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Daines (R) |
Kim Gillan (D) |
David Kaiser (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | November 2–3, 2012 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 48% | 44% | 3% | 4% |
| Mason-Dixon | October 29–31, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 40% | 1% | 8% |
| Pharos Research Group | October 26–28, 2012 | 799 | ± 4.9% | 52% | 45% | – | 4% |
| Pharos Research Group | October 19–21, 2012 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | October 8–10, 2012 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 43% | 34% | 10% | 12% |
| MSU-Billings | September 27–30, 2012 | 477 | ± 4.6% | 36% | 23% | 3% | 38% |
| Mellman (D-Montana JET PAC) | September 23–26, 2012 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 36% | 34% | 5% | 25% |
| Mason-Dixon | September 17–19, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 38% | 2% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | September 10–11, 2012 | 656 | ± 3.8% | 40% | 37% | 9% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ± 3.2% | 33% | 27% | — | 40% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 35% | 27% | — | 38% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Abarr (R) |
Kim Gillan (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (report) | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 30% | 26% | — | 44% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Abarr (R) |
Franke Wilmer (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (report) | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 33% | 25% | — | 42% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Daines (R) |
Franke Wilmer (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ± 3.2% | 36% | 25% | — | 39% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 35% | 25% | — | 40% |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Likely R | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg | Safe R | November 2, 2012 |
| Roll Call | Likely R | November 4, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | November 5, 2012 |
| NY Times | Safe R | November 4, 2012 |
| RCP | Likely R | November 4, 2012 |
| The Hill | Likely R | November 4, 2012 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Steve Daines | 255,468 | 53.25% | −7.16% | |
| Democratic | Kim Gillan | 204,939 | 42.72% | +8.88% | |
| Libertarian | David Kaiser | 19,333 | 4.03% | −1.71% | |
| Total votes | 479,740 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Missoula (Largest city: Missoula)
- Glacier (largest city: Cut Bank)
- Roosevelt (largest city: Wolf Point)
- Hill (largest city: Havre)
- Blaine (largest city: Chinooko)
References
- Johnson, Charles S. (February 5, 2011). "It's official: Rehberg says he's taking on Tester". Billings Gazette. Retrieved February 5, 2011.
- "Montana 2012 Primary and General Election Calendar" (PDF). Secretary of State Linda McCulloch. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 10, 2011. Retrieved August 16, 2011.
- Slate, Judy (February 3, 2011). "Bozeman's Steve Daines comments on switching from Senate to House race". KXLF.com. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved June 1, 2011.
- Johnson, Charles S. (February 2, 2012). "Star Wars is top issue for GOP House candidate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved February 7, 2012.
- Johnson, Charles S. (March 6, 2012). "Ex-Marine from Hardin files for Montana's U.S. House seat". Missoulian. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- Cates, Kristen. "More inclusive KKK chapter makes some suspicious". USA TODAY. Retrieved February 25, 2024.
- "Republican Mont. candidate for Congress with KKK ties drops out due to lack of support". The Washington Post. October 5, 2011. Retrieved October 15, 2011.
- Public Policy Polling
- ^ State of Montana. Official Canvas Retrieved December 20, 2022
- Banks, Marnee (June 21, 2011). "Kim Gillan enters Democratic race for US House". KAJ18.com. Archived from the original on March 21, 2012. Retrieved June 21, 2011.
- "Billings real estate agent Rankin joins U.S. House race as Demo". Independent Record. March 9, 2012. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- Dennison, Mike (November 3, 2011). "Whitefish businesswoman becomes 5th Democrat in U.S. House race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved November 11, 2011.
- Weller, Allyson (June 18, 2011). "Strohmaier announces run for Congress". KPAX. Archived from the original on June 23, 2011. Retrieved June 20, 2011.
- Banks, Marnee (August 10, 2011). "Helena attorney Rob Stutz announces run for US House". KRTV. Archived from the original on September 29, 2011. Retrieved August 16, 2011.
- Johnson, Charles S. (January 20, 2012). "Crow tribal member files as Democrat for U.S. House seat". Missoulian. Retrieved January 25, 2012.
- Banks, Marnee (February 1, 2011). "Wilmer of Bozeman announces U.S. House bid". KRTV.com. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved June 1, 2011.
- "Gopher not running for Congress; she sets eye on Senate in 2014". Independent Record. March 14, 2012. Retrieved March 15, 2012.
- Drucker, David M. (June 9, 2011). "Could Schweitzer Challenge Baucus in 2014?". Roll Call. Retrieved June 10, 2011.
- Johnson, Charles S. (July 28, 2011). "Schweitzer says his future isn't in Congress". Billings Gazette. Retrieved August 2, 2011.
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- Dennison, Mike (March 13, 2012). "Filing deadline: Busy day precedes busy election season". Independent Record. Retrieved March 15, 2012.
- "CANDIDATES". gopyoungguns.com. Archived from the original on January 1, 2013. Retrieved January 16, 2023.
- "RED TO BLUE 2012". DCCC. Archived from the original on October 26, 2012. Retrieved March 5, 2023.
- Public Policy Polling (D)
- Mason-Dixon
- Pharos Research Group
- Pharos Research Group
- Public Policy Polling (D)
- MSU-Billings
- Mellman (D-Montana JET PAC)
- Mason-Dixon
- Public Policy Polling (D)
- Public Policy Polling (D)
- Public Policy Polling (D)
- Public Policy Polling
- "The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com. November 5, 2012. Retrieved November 6, 2012.
- "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. November 2, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
- , as of November 4, 2012
- Crystal Ball, as of November 5, 2012
- House Race Ratings, The New York Times, as of November 4, 2012
- , as of November 4, 2012
- "House Ratings". The Hill. November 3, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
- "2012 General Canvass" (PDF). Retrieved February 23, 2019.
External links
- Elections at the Montana Secretary of State
- United States House of Representatives elections in Montana, 2012 at Ballotpedia
- Montana U.S. House at OurCampaigns.com
- Campaign contributions for U.S. Congressional races in Montana at OpenSecrets
- Outside spending at the Sunlight Foundation
Campaign websites
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