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Early/Mid 2012 statewide opinion polling for the 2012 United States presidential election

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Statewide polls for the 2012 United States presidential election are as follows. The polls listed here, by state, are from January 1 to August 31, 2012, and provide early data on opinion polling between a possible Republican candidate against incumbent President Barack Obama.

Note that some states had not conducted polling yet or no updated polls were present from January 1 to August 31, 2012.

Obama vs. Romney
Obama vs. Gingrich
Obama vs. Santorum
Obama vs. Paul

Alabama

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 62%–38%
(Republican in 2008) 60%–38%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Capital Survey Research Center August 13–16, 2012 Barack Obama 36% Mitt Romney 54% 18 452 RV ±4.6%
Capital Survey Research Center June 7, 18–19, 26–27, 2012 Barack Obama 36% Mitt Romney 51% 15 551 LV ±4.2%

Arizona

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 55%–44%
(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 2012 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 52% 11 833 RV ±3.4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research June 26, 2012 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 54% 13 500 LV ±4.5%
Project New America/Public Policy Polling (D) June 4–5, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 49% 3 791 RV ±3.5%
Public Policy Polling May 17–20, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 50% 7 500 RV ±4.4%
DC London/Magellan Strategies (R) April 30 – May 2, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 52% 9 909 LV ±3.25%
Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) April 9–17, 2012 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 40% 2 511 RV ±4.4%
Arizona State University April 8–14, 2012 Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 42% 2 488 RV ±4.4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research March 13, 2012 Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 51% 11 500 LV ±4.5%
44% Rick Santorum 45% 1
NBC News/Marist College February 19–20, 2012 Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 45% 5 2,487 RV ±1.8%
Barack Obama 41% Ron Paul 43% 2
Barack Obama 45% Newt Gingrich 40% 5
Barack Obama 42% Rick Santorum 45% 3
Public Policy Polling February 17–19, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 47% Tie 743 RV ±3.6%
Barack Obama 46% Ron Paul 42% 4
Barack Obama 48% Newt Gingrich 44% 4
Barack Obama 46% Rick Santorum 47% 1
Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) January 5–9, 2012 Barack Obama 37% Mitt Romney 43% 6 553 RV ±4.3%
Barack Obama 44% Ron Paul 36% 8
45% Newt Gingrich 35% 10
43% Rick Santorum 34% 9

Three way race

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Libertarian % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling May 17–20, 2012 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 45% Gary Johnson 9% 4 500 RV ±4.4%

Arkansas

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 54%–45%
(Republican in 2008) 59%–39%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Talk Business/Hendrix College March 26, 2012 Barack Obama 33% Mitt Romney 56.5% 23.5 759 LV ±3.6%

California

55 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 54%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 61%–37%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Policy Analysis for California Education/USC Rossier School of Education/Tulchin Research August 3–7, 2012 Barack Obama 55.6% Mitt Romney 32.7% 22.9 1,041 LV ±3.0%
CBRT/Pepperdine University/M4 Strategies July 16–17, 2012 Barack Obama 51.9% Mitt Romney 32.6% 19.3 812 LV ±3.4%
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) June 21 – July 2, 2012 Barack Obama 55% Mitt Romney 37% 18 848 LV ±3.4%
SurveyUSA May 27–29, 2012 Barack Obama 57% Mitt Romney 36% 21 1,575 RV ±2.5%
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) May 21–29, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 32% 16 710 RV ±3.8%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint May 17–21, 2012 Barack Obama 56% Mitt Romney 37% 19 1,002 RV ±3.5%
Public Policy Institute of California May 14–20, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 39% 11 894 LV ±4.2%
SurveyUSA March 29, 2012 – April 2, 2012 Barack Obama 62% Mitt Romney 31% 31 1,995 RV ±2.2%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint March 14–19, 2012 Barack Obama 57% Mitt Romney 36% 21 1,500 RV ±2.9%
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) February 11–18, 2012 Barack Obama 55% Mitt Romney 35% 20 1,000 RV ±3.1%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research February 8–16, 2012 Barack Obama 57% Mitt Romney 35% 22 500 ±4.5%
58% Rick Santorum 30% 28
SurveyUSA February 8–9, 2012 Barack Obama 60% Mitt Romney 31% 29 2,088 RV ±2.1%
63% Newt Gingrich 27% 36
61% Ron Paul 29% 31
61% Rick Santorum 29% 32

Colorado

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 52%–47%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs August 21–22, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 44% 4 500 LV ±4.4%
Purple Strategies August 13–14, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46% 3 600 LV ±4.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research August 6, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 47% Tied 500 LV ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling August 2–5, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 43% 6 779 LV ±3.5%
Purple Strategies July 9–13, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 44% 1 600 LV ±4.0%
Priorities USA Action/Garin-Hart-Yang-Research Group (D) June 25 – July 5, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 42% 7 608 LV ±4.%
We Ask America June 25, 2012 Barack Obama 46.6% Mitt Romney 43% 3.6 1,083 LV ±2.98%
Public Policy Polling June 14–17, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 42% 7 799 LV ±3.5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research June 7, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 45% Tied 500 LV ±4.5%
Purple Strategies May 31 – June 5, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 46% 2 600 LV ±4.0%
NBC News/Marist College May 22–24, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 45% 1 1,030 RV ±3.0%
Project New America/Keating Research/Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs (D) May 21–24, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 44% 4 601 RV ±4.0%
Purple Strategies April 19–23, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 47% Tied Not reported ±4.1%
Public Policy Polling April 5–7, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 40% 13 542 ±4.2%
55% Newt Gingrich 37% 18
54% Rick Santorum 38% 16
47% Ron Paul 42% 5

Three way race

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Libertarian % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling August 2–5, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 42% Gary Johnson 4% 4 779 ±3.5%
Public Policy Polling June 14–17, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 39% Gary Johnson 7% 8 799 ±3.5%

Connecticut

7 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 54%–44%
(Democratic in 2008) 61%–38%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Quinnipiac University August 22–26, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 45% 7 1,472 LV ±2.6%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research August 21, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 43% 8 500 LV ±4.5%
Quinnipiac University May 29, 2012 – June 3, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 38% 12 1,408 ±2.6%
Quinnipiac University March 14–19, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 37% 16 1,622 ±2.4%
55% Rick Santorum 35% 20

Florida

29 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 52%–47%
(Democratic in 2008) 51%–48%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation August 22–26, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 46% 4 776 LV ±3.5%
CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University August 15–21, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46% 3 1,241 LV ±2.8%
Gravis Marketing August 20, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 48% 3 728 LV ±3.8%
Foster McCollum White Baydoun/Douglas Fulmer & Associates August 17, 2012 Barack Obama 39.9% Mitt Romney 54.46% 14.56 1,503 LV ±2.53%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research August 15, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 45% 2 500 LV ±4.5%
Purple Strategies August 13–14, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 48% 1 600 LV ±4.0%
CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University July 24–30, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 45% 6 1,177 LV ±3.0%
Public Policy Polling July 26–29, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 47% 1 871 LV ±3.3%
WFLA-TV Tampa/SurveyUSA July 17–19, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 43% 5 647 LV ±3.9%
Purple Strategies July 9–13, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 48% 3 600 LV ±4.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research July 9–11, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 45% 1 800 RV ±3.5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research July 9, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 46% 1 500 LV ±4.5%
Priorities USA/Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D) June 25 – July 3, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 44% 4 608 LV ±4.0%
We Ask America July 1–2, 2012 Barack Obama 46.1% Mitt Romney 45.3% 0.8 1,127 LV ±2.9%
Quinnipiac University June 19–25, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 41% 4 1,200 RV ±2.8%
Quinnipiac University June 12–18, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 42% 4 1,697 RV ±2.4%
Purple Strategies May 31, 2012 – June 5, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 49% 4 600 LV ±4.0%
Public Policy Polling May 31 – June 3, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 46% 4 642 RV ±3.9%
Quinnipiac University May 15–21, 2012 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 47% 6 1,722 RV ±2.4%
NBC News/Marist College May 17–20, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 44% 4 1,078 RV ±3.0%
Suffolk University/7News May 6–8, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 45% 1 600 RV ±4%
Quinnipiac University April 25 – May 1, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 44% 1 1,169 RV ±2.9%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research April 25, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 46% 1 500 LV ±4.5%
Purple Strategies April 19–23, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 47% 2 600 LV ±4.1%
Fox News/Anderson Robbins/Shaw & Company April 15–17, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 43% 2 757 RV ±4.0%
Public Policy Polling April 12–15, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Newt Gingrich 40% 8 700 LV ±3.7%
50% Ron Paul 40% 10
50% Mitt Romney 45% 5
Quinnipiac University March 20–26, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 42% 7 1,228 RV ±2.8%
50% Rick Santorum 37% 13
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research March 13, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 43% 3 500 LV ±4.5%
45% Rick Santorum 43% 2
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research February 9, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 44% 3 500 LV ±4.5%
47% Rick Santorum 46% 1
NBC News/Marist College January 25–27, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 41% 8 1,739 LV ±2.7%
52% Newt Gingrich 35% 17
50% Ron Paul 36% 14
50% Rick Santorum 35% 15
Mason-Dixon Research & Polling/Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald January 24–26, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 48% 4 800 LV ±3.5%
Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 41% 9
50% Rick Santorum 39% 11
Suffolk University January 22–24, 2012 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 47% 5 600 RV Not reported
Barack Obama 49% Newt Gingrich 40% 9
Quinnipiac University January 19–23, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 45% Tied 1,518 RV ±2.5%
Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 39% 11
47% Ron Paul 39% 8
49% Rick Santorum 40% 9
Everglades Foundation/Tarrance Group (R) January 4–8, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 45% 1 607 LV ±4.1%
Quinnipiac University January 4–8, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 46% 3 1,412 RV ±2.8%
Barack Obama 45% Rick Santorum 43% 2

Three way race

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Libertarian % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Mason Dixon July 9–11, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 45% Gary Johnson 2% 1 800 ±3.5%

Georgia

16 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 58%–41%
(Republican in 2008) 52%–47%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
20/20 Insight August 15–18, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 49% 3 1,158 LV ±2.9%
Majority Opinion Research/InsiderAdvantage May 22, 2012 Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 52% 12 438 Not reported
Rosetta Stone Communications/Landmark Communications May 10, 2012 Barack Obama 40.2% Mitt Romney 51.1% 10.9 600 RV ±4.0%
SurveyUSA February 23–26, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Newt Gingrich 48% 4 1,156 RV ±2.9%
42% Mitt Romney 49% 7
43% Rick Santorum 47% 4
43% Ron Paul 46% 3

Illinois

20 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 55%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 62%–37%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Crain's Chicago Business/Ipsos July 16–22, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 31% 20 600 ±4.7%
WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune February 2–6, 2012 Barack Obama 56% Mitt Romney 35% 21 600 ±4.0%

Indiana

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 60%–39%
(Democratic in 2008) 50%–49%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research July 31 – August 1, 2012 Barack Obama 35% Mitt Romney 51% 16 400 LV ±5.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research May 25, 2012 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 48% 6 600 LV ±4.0%
Howey Politics/DePauw University/Bellwether Research/Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group March 26–27, 2012 Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 49% 9 503 LV ±4.5%
41% Rick Santorum 46% 5

Iowa

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling August 23–26, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 45% 2 1,244 LV ±2.8%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research August 8, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 46% 2 500 LV ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling July 12–15, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 43% 5 1,131 RV ±2.91%
We Ask America June 18, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 44% 1 1,086 LV ±3.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research June 11, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 47% 1 500 LV ±4.5%
NBC News/Marist College May 22–24, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 44% Tied 1,106 RV ±3.0%
Public Policy Polling May 3–6, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Ron Paul 39% 8 1,181 RV ±2.85%
Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 41% 10
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. February 12–15, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 37% 14 611 LV ±3.5%
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 46% 2
42% Ron Paul 49% 7
44% Rick Santorum 48% 4

Maine

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 53%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 58%–40%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Portland Press Herald/Critical Insights June 20–25, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 35% 14 615 RV ±4.0%
MassINC Polling Group June 13–14, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 34% 14 506 LV ±4.4%
Critical Insights May 2–7, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 42% 8 600 RV ±4.0%
Public Policy Polling March 2–4, 2012 Barack Obama 54% Ron Paul 38% 16 1,256 RV ±2.8%
58% Rick Santorum 35% 23
60% Newt Gingrich 32% 28
58% Mitt Romney 35% 23

Maryland

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 56%–43%
(Democratic in 2008) 61%–38%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Marylanders for Marriage Equality/Public Policy Polling (D) May 14–16, 2012 Barack Obama 58% Mitt Romney 35% 23 852 LV ±3.4%

Massachusetts

11 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 62%–37%
(Democratic in 2008) 62%–36%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Kimball Political Consulting August 21, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 41% 11 592 LV ±4%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2012 Barack Obama 55% Mitt Romney 39% 16 1,115LV ±2.9%
Public Policy Polling June 22–24, 2012 Barack Obama 55% Mitt Romney 39% 16 902LV ±3.3%
Western New England University May 29–31, 2012 Barack Obama 56% Mitt Romney 34% 22 504 LV ±4.4%
The Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire May 25–31, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 34% 12 651 LV ±3.8%
Suffolk University May 20–22, 2012 Barack Obama 59% Mitt Romney 34% 25 600 LV ±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research May 7, 2012 Barack Obama 56% Mitt Romney 35% 21 500 LV ±4.5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research April 9, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 40% 11 500 LV ±4.5%
The Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire March 21–27, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 33% 16 544 LV ±4.4%
Public Policy Polling March 16–18, 2012 Barack Obama 62% Newt Gingrich 28% 34 936 RV ±3.2%
58% Ron Paul 30% 28
58% Mitt Romney 35% 23
61% Rick Santorum 29% 32
MassLive.com/The Republican/Western New England University February 23 – March 1, 2012 Barack Obama 60% Mitt Romney 34% 26 527 RV ±4.3%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research February 29, 2012 Barack Obama 55% Mitt Romney 38% 17 500 LV ±4.5%
58% Rick Santorum 32% 26
Suffolk University February 11–15, 2012 Barack Obama 63% Newt Gingrich 27% 36 600 LV ±4.0%
53% Mitt Romney 39% 14
59% Rick Santorum 32% 27
60% Ron Paul 26% 34
Mass Insight Global Partnerships/Opinion Dynamics Corporation January 31 – February 4, 2012 Barack Obama 56% Mitt Romney 38% 18 456 RV ±4.6%

Four Way race

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Green % Libertarian % Lead margin
Public Policy Polling
Margin of error: ±3.3%
Sample size: 902LV 		June 22–24, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 38% Jill Stein 3% Gary Johnson 1% 15

Michigan

16 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–41%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
EPIC-MRA August 28, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46% 3 1200 LV ±2.6%
Mitchell Research & Communications August 23, 2012 Barack Obama 46.6% Mitt Romney 47.7% 0.1 1277 LV ±2.74%
Detroit News/Glengariff Group August 18–20, 2012 Barack Obama 47.5% Mitt Romney 42.0% 5.5 600 LV ±4.0%
Foster McCollum White & Associates/Baydoun Consulting August 16, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 48% 4 1,733 LV ±2.35%
Mitchell Research & Communications August 13, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 44% 5 1,079 LV ±2.98%
EPIC-MRA July 24–31, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 42% 6 600 LV ±3.5%
Mitchell Research & Communications July 23, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 45% 1 825 LV ±3.4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research July 23, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 42% 6 500 LV ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling July 21–23, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 39% 14 579 RV ±4.1%
NBC News/Marist College June 24–25, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 43% 4 1,078 RV ±3.0%
Mitchell Research & Communications June 18, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 46% 1 750 LV ±3.58%
We Ask America June 18, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 45% 2 1,010LV ±3.0%
Lambert, Edwards & Associates/Denno Research June 14–15, 2012 Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 40% Tied 600 LV ±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research June 14, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 42% 8 500 LV ±4.5%
Baydoun Consulting/Foster McCollum White & Associates June 12, 2012 Barack Obama 46.89% Mitt Romney 45.48% 1.41 1,783 ±2.32%
EPIC-MRA June 2–5, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 46% 1 600 LV ±4%
Public Policy Polling May 24–27, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 39% 14 500 RV ±4.4%
Glengariff Group May 10–11, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 40% 5 600 LV ±4%
EPIC-MRA March 31 – April 3, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 43% 4 600 LV ±4%
Marketing Resource Group March 14–19, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 42% 7 600 LV ±4%
NBC News/Marist College February 19–20, 2012 Barack Obama 55% Rick Santorum 29% 26 3,149 RV ±1.8%
56% Newt Gingrich 28% 28
53% Ron Paul 31% 22
51% Mitt Romney 33% 18
Public Policy Polling February 10–12, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Rick Santorum 39% 11 560 RV ±4.14%
56% Newt Gingrich 34% 22
52% Ron Paul 34% 18
54% Mitt Romney 38% 16
Detroit Free Press/EPIC-MRA January 21–25, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 38% 13 600 LV ±4%
48% Mitt Romney 40% 8

Minnesota

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
KSTP-TV Minneapolis/SurveyUSA July 17–19, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 40% 6 552 LV ±4.3%
Public Policy Polling May 31 – June 3, 2012 Barack Obama 54% Mitt Romney 39% 15 973 RV ±3.1%
KSTP-TV Minneapolis/Survey USA May 9–10, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 38% 14 516 RV ±4.4%
KSTP-TV Minneapolis/Survey USA January 31 – February 2, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 36% 13 542 RV ±4.3%
55% Newt Gingrich 29% 26
48% Ron Paul 37% 11
51% Rick Santorum 32% 19
Public Policy Polling January 21–22, 2012 Barack Obama 54% Newt Gingrich 39% 15 1,236 RV ±2.8%
52% Rick Santorum 40% 12
51% Ron Paul 38% 13
51% Mitt Romney 41% 10

Missouri

10 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 53%–46%
(Republican in 2008) 49%–49%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling August 28–29, 2012 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 53% 12 621 LV ±3.9%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research August 22–23, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 50% 7 625 LV ±4.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research August 22, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 46% 1 500 LV ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling August 20, 2012 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 52% 10 500 LV ±4.4%
KSDK-TV St. Louis/KSHB-TV Kansas City/KSPR-TV Springfield/KYTV-TV Springfield/SurveyUSA August 9–12, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 45% 1 585 LV ±4.1%
Missouri Scout/Chilenski Strategies August 8, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 48% 1 663LV ±3.8%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research July 30, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 50% 6 500 LV ±4.5%
We Ask America July 24, 2012 Barack Obama 39.73% Mitt Romney 49.01% 9.28 1,172 LV ±3.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research June 7, 2012 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 49% 7 500 LV ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling May 24–27, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 44% 1 602 RV ±4.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research April 17, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 48% 3 500 LV ±4.5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research March 14–15, 2012 Barack Obama 42% Rick Santorum 51% 9 500 LV ±4.5%
Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 50% 9
Public Policy Polling January 27–29, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Newt Gingrich 42% 7 582 RV ±4.1%
Barack Obama 45% Ron Paul 43% 2
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 45% Tied
Barack Obama 47% Rick Santorum 44% 3

Three way race

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Libertarian % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Capitol Correspondent/North Star Campaign Systems/North Star Campaign Systems/Gravis Marketing (R) August 23, 2012 Barack Obama 36.1% Mitt Romney 53.1% Gary Johnson 4.1% 17 1,057 A ±3.4%
We Ask America July 24, 2012 Barack Obama 39.7% Mitt Romney 49.0% Gary Johnson 2.1% 9.3 1,172 LV ±3.0%

Montana

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 59%–39%
(Republican in 2008) 49%–47%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research August 20, 2012 Barack Obama 38% Mitt Romney 55% 17 500 LV ±4.5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research June 18, 2012 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 51% 9 500 ±5.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research May 2, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 51% 7 450 LV ±5.0%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 48% 5 934 RV ±3.2%
41% Ron Paul 49% 8
Barack Obama 45% Newt Gingrich 45% Tie
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research February 22, 2012 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 48% 7 500 RV ±4.5%
41% Rick Santorum 45% 4

Three way race

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Libertarian % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 43% Gary Johnson 8% 2 934 ±3.2%

Nebraska

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 66%–33%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research May 16, 2012 Barack Obama 39% Mitt Romney 53% 14 500 LV ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling March 22–25, 2012 Barack Obama 39% Mitt Romney 51% 12 1,028 RV ±3.1%
38% Rick Santorum 55% 17
40% Newt Gingrich 49% 9
37% Ron Paul 49% 12
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research March 5, 2012 Barack Obama 35% Mitt Romney 52% 17 500 LV ±4.5%
37% Rick Santorum 49% 12

Second congressional district

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling March 22–25, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 46% 1 Not reported Not reported
Barack Obama 47% Rick Santorum 47% Tied
Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 44% 2
Barack Obama 42% Ron Paul 44% 2

Nevada

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 55%–43%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling August 23–26, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 47% 3 831 LV ±3.4%
Las Vegas Review-Journal/SurveyUSA August 16–21, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 45% 2 869 LV ±3.4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research July 24, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 45% 5 500 LV ±4.5%
Magellan Strategies July 16–17, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 46% 4 665 RV ±3.8%
Public Policy Polling June 7–10, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 42% 6 500 RV ±4.4%
NBC News/Marist College May 22–24, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 46% 2 1,040 RV ±3.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research April 30, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 44% 8 500 LV ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling March 29 – April 1, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 43% 8 533 RV ±4.2%
54% Rick Santorum 40% 14
49% Ron Paul 42% 7
54% Newt Gingrich 39% 15
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research March 19, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 44% 6 500 LV ±4.5%
52% Rick Santorum 36% 16

Three-way race

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Libertarian % Lead Margin Sample size Margin of error
We Ask America July 17–18, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 43% Gary Johnson 2% 6 1,092 LV ±2.95%

New Hampshire

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling August 9–12, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 45% 6 1,055 LV ±3.0%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire August 1–12, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46% 3 555 LV ±4.2%
Democracy for America/Public Policy Polling (D) August 5–8, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 44% 6 1,591 LV ±2.5%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire July 5–15, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 45% 4 470 LV ±4.5%
NBC News/Marist College June 24–25, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 42% 1 1029 RV ±3.1%
American Research Group June 21–24, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46% 3 417 LV Not reported
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research June 20, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 43% 5 500 LV ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling May 10–13, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 41% 12 1,163 RV ±2.9%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire April 9–20, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 42% 9 486 LV ±4.4%
Dartmouth College April 2–5, 2012 Barack Obama 42.4% Mitt Romney 43.9% 1.5 403 RV ±4.9%
American Research Group March 15–18, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 46% 2 557 RV Not reported
WMUR/University of New Hampshire January 25 – February 2, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 40% 10 495 LV ±4.4%
50% Ron Paul 42% 8
60% Newt Gingrich 35% 25
56% Rick Santorum 35% 21

Three way race

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Libertarian % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling May 10–13, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 38% Gary Johnson 7% 13 1,163 ±2.9%

New Jersey

14 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 52%–46%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Rutgers University August 23–25, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 37% 14 710 LV ±3.5%
Monmouth University July 18–22, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 38% 13 678 RV ±3.8%
Quinnipiac University July 9–15, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 38% 11 1,623 RV ±2.4%
Rutgers University May 31 – June 4, 2012 Barack Obama 56% Mitt Romney 33% 23 1,065 RV ±2.9%
Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 39% 10 1,582 ±2.5%
Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) April 30 – May 6, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 36% 14 797 RV ±3.5%
Quinnipiac University April 3–9, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 40% 9 1,607 RV ±2.4%
51% Rick Santorum 36% 15
Quinnipiac University February 21–27, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 39% 10 1,396 RV ±2.6%
55% Newt Gingrich 30% 25
52% Rick Santorum 34% 18
WABC-TV New York/SurveyUSA February 24–26, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 38% 14 533 RV ±4.3%
61% Newt Gingrich 27% 34
57% Rick Santorum 33% 24
56% Ron Paul 31% 25
Rutgers University February 9–11, 2012 Barack Obama 56% Mitt Romney 31% 25 914 RV ±3.3%
Quinnipiac University January 10–16, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 38% 10 1,460 RV ±2.6%

New Mexico

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research August 21, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 38% 14 500 LV ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling July 13–16, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 44% 5 724 RV ±3.6%
We Ask America July 9–10, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 40% 11 1,295 LV ±2.8%
Patriot Majority/FM3 Research (D) May 16–21, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 35% 13 502 RV ±4.4%
Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012 Barack Obama 54% Mitt Romney 40% 14 526 RV ±4.3%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research April 3, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Rick Santorum 38% 15 500 LV ±4.5%
52% Mitt Romney 36% 16
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research February 14, 2012 Barack Obama 55% Rick Santorum 37% 18 500 LV ±4.5%
55% Mitt Romney 36% 19

Three way race

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Libertarian % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling July 13–16, 2012 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 38% Gary Johnson 13% 4 724 ±3.64%
Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 35% Gary Johnson 15% 13 526 ±4.3%

New York

29 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 58%–40%
(Democratic in 2008) 63%–36%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Siena College August 14–19, 2012 Barack Obama 62% Mitt Romney 33% 29 671 LV ±3.8%
Siena College July 10–15, 2012 Barack Obama 61% Mitt Romney 34% 27 758 RV ±3.6%
Siena College June 3–6, 2012 Barack Obama 59% Mitt Romney 35% 24 807 RV ±3.4%
Quinnipiac University May 22–28, 2012 Barack Obama 56% Mitt Romney 31% 25 1,504 RV ±2.5%
Siena College May 6–10, 2012 Barack Obama 57% Mitt Romney 37% 20 766 RV ±3.5%
NY1/YNN/Marist College April 10–12, 2012 Barack Obama 57% Mitt Romney 35% 22 632 RV ±4.0%
Siena College April 1–4, 2012 Barack Obama 65% Newt Gingrich 29% 36 808 RV ±3.4%
61% Ron Paul 31% 30
60% Mitt Romney 35% 25
62% Rick Santorum 23% 39
Quinnipiac University March 28 – April 2, 2012 Barack Obama 56% Mitt Romney 33% 23 1,597 RV ±2.5%
59% Rick Santorum 30% 29
Siena College February 26–29, 2012 Barack Obama 60% Mitt Romney 34% 26 808 RV ±3.4%
64% Rick Santorum 30% 34
62% Ron Paul 29% 33
66% Newt Gingrich 27% 39
Quinnipiac University February 8–13, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 35% 17 1,233 RV ±2.8%
57% Newt Gingrich 31% 26
53% Rick Santorum 35% 18

North Carolina

15 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 56%–44%
(Democratic in 2008) 50%–49%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
FOX 8/High Point University/SurveyUSA August 26–30, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 46% 3 543 RV ±4.3%
Elon University August 25–30, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 47% 4 1,089 LV ±3%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation August 22–26, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 48% 1 766 LV ±3.5%
High Point University/SurveyUSA August 18–23, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 43% Tied 540 RV ±4.3%
Public Policy Polling August 2–5, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46% 3 813 LV ±3.4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research August 1, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 49% 5 500 LV ±4.5%
Civitas Institute/National Research (R) July 16–18, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 49% 1 600 RV ±4%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 46% 1 775 RV ±3.5%
Project New America/Myers Research (D) July 1–8, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 49% 1 500 LV ±4.4%
Civitas Institute/SurveyUSA June 29 – July 1, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 50% 5 558 RV ±4.2%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research June 25, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 47% 3 500 LV ±4.5%
NBC News/Marist College June 24–25, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 44% 2 1,019 RV ±3.1%
Public Policy Polling June 7–10, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 48% 2 810 RV ±3.4%
WRAL-TV Raleigh/SurveyUSA May 18–21, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 45% 1 524 LV ±4.4%
Civitas Institute/National Research (R) May 19–20, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 47% 2 600 RV ±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research May 14, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 51% 8 500 LV ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling May 10–13, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 47% 1 666 RV ±3.8%
WRAL-TV Raleigh/Survey USA April 26–30, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 43% 4 1,636 RV ±2.5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research April 10, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 46% 2 500 LV ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling April 4–7, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 41% 10 975 RV ±3.1%
48% Ron Paul 43% 5
49% Mitt Romney 44% 5
50% Rick Santorum 44% 6
Public Policy Polling March 8–11, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 42% 9 804 RV ±3.5%
48% Ron Paul 41% 7
49% Mitt Romney 46% 3
49% Rick Santorum 44% 5
Public Policy Polling February 3–5, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 45% 5 1,052 RV ±3.0%
47% Ron Paul 41% 6
47% Mitt Romney 46% 1
48% Rick Santorum 46% 2
Civitas Institute/National Research (R) January 9–11, 2012 Barack Obama 39% Mitt Romney 48% 9 300 RV ±4.0%
Public Policy Polling January 5–8, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 45% 1 780 RV ±3.5%
49% Newt Gingrich 43% 6
47% Ron Paul 41% 6
49% Rick Perry 41% 8
Barack Obama 46% Rick Santorum 46% Tied

Three way race

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Libertarian % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling May 10–13, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 44% Gary Johnson 6% 2 666 ±3.8%

North Dakota

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 63%–36%
(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
North Dakota Democratic-NPL State Party/DFM Research (D) July 24–26, 2012 Barack Obama 35% Mitt Romney 54% 19 400 LV ±4.9%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research July 10–11, 2012 Barack Obama 36% Mitt Romney 51% 15 400 ±5.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research June 4–6, 2012 Barack Obama 39% Mitt Romney 52% 13 625 RV ±4.0%

Ohio

18 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 51%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 52%–47%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Capitol Correspondent/Gravis Marketing August 27, 2012 Barack Obama 45.27% Mitt Romney 44.39% 0.88 728 LV ±3.8%
Columbus Dispatch August 15–25, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 45% Tied 1,758 LV ±2.1%
CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University August 21, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 44% 6 1,253 LV ±2.8%
University of Cincinnati August 16–21, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46% 3 847 LV ±3.4%
Purple Strategies August 13–14, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 46% 2 600 LV ±4.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research August 13, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 45% Tied 500 LV ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling August 9–12, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 45% 3 961 LV ±3.2%
Quinnipiac University July 24–30, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 44% 6 1,193 LV ±3.0%
We Ask America July 24, 2012 Barack Obama 47.84% Mitt Romney 40.2% 7.64 1,115 LV ±3.0%
Opportunity Ohio/Magellan Strategies (R) July 23–24, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 43% 2 597 LV ±4.01%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research July 18, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 45% 2 500 LV ±4.5%
Purple Strategies July 9–13, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 45% 3 600 LV ±4.0%
Priorities USA Action/Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D) June 25 – July 3, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 41% 7 608 LV ±4.0%
Quinnipiac University June 19–25, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 38% 9 1,237 RV ±2.8%
Public Policy Polling June 21–24, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 44% 3 673 RV ±3.8%
Purple Strategies May 31 – June 5, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 48% 3 600 LV ±4.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research May 29, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 46% 2 500 LV ±4.5%
NBC News/Marist College May 17–20, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 42% 6 1,103RV ±3.0%
Quinnipiac University May 2–7, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 44% 1 1,069 RV ±3.0%
Public Policy Polling May 3–6, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Ron Paul 40% 8 875 RV ±3.3%
50% Mitt Romney 43% 7
Quinnipiac University April 25 – May 1, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 42% 2 1,130 RV ±2.9%
Purple Strategies April 19–23, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 44% 5 Not reported ±4.1%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research April 18, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 42% 4 500 LV ±4.5%
Fox News/Anderson Robbins/Shaw & Company April 15–17, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 39% 6 606 RV ±4.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research March 26, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 40% 8 500 LV ±4.5%
47% Rick Santorum 41% 6
Quinnipiac University March 20–26, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 41% 6 1,246 RV ±2.8%
47% Rick Santorum 40% 7
NBC News/Marist College February 29 – March 2, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 38% 12 1573 RV ±2.5%
51% Newt Gingrich 36% 15
48% Ron Paul 38% 10 1505 RV
50% Rick Santorum 36% 14
Fox News/Anderson Robbins/Shaw & Company February 11–13, 2012 Barack Obama 38% Mitt Romney 44% 6 505 RV ±4.5%
Barack Obama 43% Newt Gingrich 37% 6
Barack Obama 40% Rick Santorum 43% 3
Barack Obama 41% Ron Paul 42% 1
Quinnipiac University February 7–12, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 38% 12 1,421 RV ±2.6%
47% Rick Santorum 41% 6
46% Ron Paul 40% 6
46% Mitt Romney 44% 2
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research February 8, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Rick Santorum 44% Tied 500 LV ±4.5%
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 41% 4
Public Policy Polling January 28–29, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Rick Santorum 42% 6 820 RV ±3.4%
51% Newt Gingrich 39% 12
48% Ron Paul 38% 10
49% Mitt Romney 42% 7
Quinnipiac University January 9–16, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Rick Santorum 37% 11 1,610 RV ±2.4%
52% Newt Gingrich 38% 14
48% Ron Paul 39% 9
44% Mitt Romney 42% 2

Oklahoma

7 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 65.6%–34.4%
(Republican in 2008) 65.7%–34.4%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
SoonerPoll July 26 – August 14, 2012 Barack Obama 29% Mitt Romney 58% 29 495 LV ±4.4%
SoonerPoll May 7–10, 2012 Barack Obama 27% Mitt Romney 62% 35 504 LV ±4.4%

Oregon

7 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–47%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–40%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
PPP June 21–24, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 42% 8 686 ±3.7%
Survey USA May 7–10, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 43% 4 1,468 ±2.6%
Survey USA March 14–19, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 39% 11 1,615 ±2.5%
54% Newt Gingrich 34% 20
49% Rick Santorum 40% 9
48% Ron Paul 39% 9

Pennsylvania

20 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Philadelphia Inquirer/Global Strategy Group/National Research Inc. August 21–23, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 42% 9 601 LV ±4%
Morning Call/Muhlenberg College August 20–22, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 40% 9 422 LV ±5%
Franklin and Marshall College August 7–12, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 42% 5 681 RV ±3.8%
Quinnipiac University July 24–30, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 42% 11 1,168 LV ±3.0%
Public Policy Polling July 21–23, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 43% 6 758 RV ±3.6%
Republican State Committee of Pennsylvania/Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (R) July 19–23, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 43% 3 800 LV ±3.46%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research July 18, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 44% 4 500 LV ±4.5%
We Ask America July 9–10, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 40% 7 1,227 LV ±2.8%
Priorities USA Action/Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D) June 25 – July 3, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 40% 9 608 LV ±4.0%
Quinnipiac University June 19–25, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 39% 6 1,252 RV ±2.8%
Quinnipiac University June 5–10, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 40% 6 997 RV ±3.1%
Franklin & Marshall College May 29 – June 4, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 36% 12 412 RV ±4.8%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research May 21, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 41% 6 500 LV ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling May 17–20, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 42% 8 671 RV ±3.8%
Quinnipiac University April 25 – May 1, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 39% 8 1,168 RV ±2.9%
Morning Call/Muhlenberg College March 23 – April 1, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 40% 5 492 RV ±5%
Quinnipiac University March 20–26, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 42% 3 1,232 RV ±2.8%
48% Rick Santorum 41% 7
Public Policy Polling March 8–11, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 42% 7 689 RV ±4.1%
51% Newt Gingrich 39% 12
47% Ron Paul 41% 6
48% Rick Santorum 46% 2
Quinnipiac University March 7–11, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 40% 6 1,256 RV ±2.8%
50% Newt Gingrich 37% 13
45% Ron Paul 40% 5
45% Rick Santorum 44% 1
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research February 8–23, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 44% 1 438 LV ±4.5%
46% Rick Santorum 40% 6
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call February 15–21, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 37% 11 625 RV ±4.0%
49% Rick Santorum 41% 8
Franklin & Marshall College February 14–20, 2012 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 33% 8 592 RV ±4.0%
47% Newt Gingrich 31% 16
41% Ron Paul 28% 13
45% Rick Santorum 37% 8
Susquehanna Polling and Research February 2–6, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 45% 2 800 RV ±3.46%
Barack Obama 47% Rick Santorum 43% 4

South Carolina

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 58%–41%
(Republican in 2008) 54%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Reuters/Ipsos January 10–13, 2012 Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 46% 6 995 RV ±3.4%

South Dakota

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 60%–38%
(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Nielson Brothers Polling July 19–23, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 49% 6 546 LV ±4.19%

Tennessee

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 57%–43%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Vanderbilt University/Princeton Survey Research Associates International May 2–9, 2012 Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 47% 7 826 RV Not reported
Middle Tennessee State University February 13–25, 2012 Barack Obama 40% Newt Gingrich 45% 4 416 LV ±4.0%
41% Ron Paul 44% 3
41% Mitt Romney 47% 6
39% Rick Santorum 51% 12
Vanderbilt University/Princeton Survey Research Associates International February 16–22, 2012 Barack Obama 41% Newt Gingrich 38% 3 1,508 RV ±3%
Barack Obama 39% Ron Paul 40% 1
39% Mitt Romney 42% 3
38% Rick Santorum 42% 4

Texas

38 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 61%–38%
(Republican in 2008) 55%–44%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
University of Texas/Texas Tribune/YouGov May 7–13, 2012 Barack Obama 35% Mitt Romney 55% 20 511 ±4.34%
Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 50% 7 591 RV ±4.0%
45% Newt Gingrich 47% 2
43% Ron Paul 47% 4
University of Texas/Texas Tribune/YouGov February 8–15, 2012 Barack Obama 38% Newt Gingrich 49% 11 527 LV ±4.27%
36% Mitt Romney 49% 13 529 LV ±4.26%
37% Rick Santorum 51% 14
35% Ron Paul 44% 9
Public Policy Polling January 12–15, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 45% 2 700 RV ±3.7%
Barack Obama 40% Ron Paul 46% 6
47% Rick Perry 48% 1
42% Mitt Romney 49% 7
42% Rick Santorum 49% 7

Three way race

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Other candidates % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling January 12–15, 2012 Barack Obama 39% Mitt Romney 47% Gary Johnson 7% 8 700 RV ±3.7%
Barack Obama 38% Mitt Romney 40% Ron Paul* 17% 2
  • – Ron Paul was running as a Republican candidate.

Utah

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 72%–26%
(Republican in 2008) 62%–34%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Deseret News/KSL-TV/Dan Jones & Associates June 21, 2012 Barack Obama 26% Mitt Romney 68% 42 1,222 RV ±2.8%

Vermont

3 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 59%–39%
(Democratic in 2008) 67%–30%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Castleton University August 11–21, 2012 Barack Obama 62% Mitt Romney 25% 37 477 RV ±4.5%
WDEV/WCAX/Vermont Business Magazine/Castleton University May 7–16, 2012 Barack Obama 59.3% Mitt Romney 27.5% 31.8 607 RV ±4.0%
Castleton University February 11–22, 2012 Barack Obama 57% Mitt Romney 31% 26 800 RV ±3.5%
59% Rick Santorum 30% 29
58% Ron Paul 28% 30

Virginia

13 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 54%–46%
(Democratic in 2008) 53%–46%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research August 23, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 47% Tied 500 LV ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 45% 5 855 LV ±3.4%
Purple Strategies August 13–14, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 48% 3 600 LV ±4.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research August 7, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 46% 2 500 LV ±4.5%
CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University July 31 – August 6, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 45% 4 1,412 LV ±2.6%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research July 16–17, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 46% 1 500 LV ±4.5%
Quinnipiac University July 10–16, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 44% Tied 1,673 RV ±2.4%
Purple Strategies July 9–13, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 44% 2 600 LV ±4.0%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 42% 8 647 RV ±3.9%
Priorities USA Action/Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group June 25 – July 3, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 43% 3 608 LV ±4%
We Ask America June 25, 2012 Barack Obama 43.3% Mitt Romney 48.0% 4.7 1,106 LV ±2.95%
Virginian Pilot/Old Dominion University May 16 – June 15, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 42% 7 776 RV ±3.5%
Purple Strategies May 31 – June 5, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46% 3 600 LV ±4.0%
Quinnipiac University May 30 – June 4, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 42% 5 1,282 RV ±2.7%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research June 3, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 47% Tied 500 LV ±4.5%
NBC News/Marist College May 17–20, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 44% 4 1,076 RV ±3.0%
Washington Post April 28 – May 2, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 44% 7 964 RV ±4%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Newt Gingrich 37% 16 680 RV ±3.8%
50% Ron Paul 39% 11
51% Mitt Romney 43% 8
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research April 23, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 45% 1 500 LV ±4.5
Purple Strategies April 19–23, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 46% 2 Not reported ±4.1%
Roanoke College March 26 – April 5, 2012 Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 46% 6 603 A ±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research March 20, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 42% 9 500 LV ±4.5%
Quinnipiac University March 13–18, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 42% 8 1,034 RV ±3.1%
54% Newt Gingrich 35% 19
49% Rick Santorum 40% 9
49% Ron Paul 39% 10
NBC News/Marist College February 29 – March 2, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 35% 17 1,273 RV ±2.8%
57% Newt Gingrich 31% 26
54% Rick Santorum 32% 22 1,245 RV
53% Ron Paul 32% 21
Roanoke College February 13–26, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Newt Gingrich 37% 11 607 A ±4%
45% Rick Santorum 39% 6
45% Ron Paul 35% 10
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 43% 1
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research February 21, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 43% 6 500 LV ±4.5%
51% Rick Santorum 43% 8
Richmond Times-Dispatch/Muhlenberg College/Christopher Newport University February 4–13, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Newt Gingrich 40% 5 1,018 RV ±3.1%
Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 46% 2
Barack Obama 42% Rick Santorum 46% 4
Barack Obama 43% Ron Paul 43% Tie
Quinnipiac University February 1–6, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 43% 4 1,544 RV ±2.5%
51% Newt Gingrich 37% 14
49% Rick Santorum 41% 8
47% Ron Paul 40% 7
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research January 16–18, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 44% 1 625 RV ±3.9%
49% Newt Gingrich 38% 11

Three way race

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Constitution Party % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 35% Virgil Goode 9% 14 647 ±3.9%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 38% Virgil Goode 5% 12 680 ±3.8%

Washington

12 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 53%–46%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–40%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Moore Information August 6–7, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 36% 10 500 LV ±4%
KING-TV Seattle/SurveyUSA August 2–3, 2012 Barack Obama 54% Mitt Romney 37% 17 524 LV ±4.4%
KING-TV Seattle/SurveyUSA July 16–18, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 37% 9 630 RV ±4%
Public Policy Polling June 14–17, 2012 Barack Obama 54% Mitt Romney 41% 13 1,073 RV ±3.0%
Elway Research June 13–16, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 41% 8 408 RV ±5%
KING-TV Seattle/SurveyUSA May 8–9, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 36% 14 557 RV ±4.2%
Public Policy Polling February 16–19, 2012 Barack Obama 55% Newt Gingrich 35% 20 1,264 RV ±2.76%
53% Mitt Romney 38% 15
51% Ron Paul 38% 13
52% Rick Santorum 40% 12
KING-TV Seattle/SurveyUSA February 13–15, 2012 Barack Obama 56% Newt Gingrich 34% 22 572 RV ±4.2%
50% Mitt Romney 39% 11
50% Ron Paul 37% 13
51% Rick Santorum 38% 13

West Virginia

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 56%–43%
(Republican in 2008) 56%–43%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
R.L. Repass & Partners August 22–25, 2012 Barack Obama 38% Mitt Romney 52% 14 401 LV ±4.9%
R.L. Repass & Partners April 25–28, 2012 Barack Obama 37% Mitt Romney 54% 17 410 RV ±4.8%

Wisconsin

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 56%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University August 15–21, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 47% 2 1,190 LV ±3%
Marquette Law School August 16–19, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46% 3 576 LV ±4.2%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 48% 1 1,308 LV ±2.7%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research August 15, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 48% 1 500 LV ±4.5%
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation August 13–14, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 45% 4 920 RV ±3.0%
CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University July 31 – August 6, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 45% 6 1,428 ±2.6%
Marquette Law School August 2–5, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 45% 5 1,188 LV ±2.9%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research July 25, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46% 3 500 LV ±4.5%
We Ask America July 17–18, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 42% 7 1,162 LV ±2.93%
Marquette Law School July 5–8, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 43% 8 810 LV ±3.5%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 44% 6 1,057 LV ±3.3%
Marquette Law School June 13–16, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 43% 6 594 LV ±4.1%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research June 12, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 47% 3 500 LV ±4.5%
We Ask America June 3, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 43% 5 1,275 LV ±2.75%
Marquette Law School May 23–26, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 43% 8 600 LV ±4%
St. Norbert College May 17–22, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 43% 6 406 LV ±5.0%
Daily Kos/Public Policy Polling May 11–13, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 46% 1 851 RV ±3.4%
Marquette Law School May 9–12, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 46% Tied 600 LV ±4.1%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research May 9, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 45% 4 500 LV ±4.5%
Marquette Law School April 26–29, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 42% 9 705 RV ±3.8%
Daily Kos/Public Policy Polling April 13–15, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 44% 6 1,136 RV ±2.9%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research March 27, 2012 Barack Obama 56% Newt Gingrich 31% 25 500 LV ±4.5%
52% Mitt Romney 41% 11
NBC News/Marist College March 22–27, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 35% 17 1,391 RV ±2.6%
51% Rick Santorum 38% 13
51% Rick Santorum 39% 12 1,400 RV
51% Ron Paul 36% 15
Marquette Law School March 22–25, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 43% 5 707 RV ±3.7%
51% Rick Santorum 39% 12
53% Newt Gingrich 36% 17
50% Ron Paul 40% 10
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research February 27, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 42% 5 500 LV ±4.5%
46% Rick Santorum 41% 5
Public Policy Polling February 23–26, 2012 Barack Obama 55% Newt Gingrich 37% 18 900 RV ±3.27%
53% Ron Paul 37% 16
53% Mitt Romney 39% 14
49% Rick Santorum 43% 6
Marquette Law School February 16–19, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 38% 15 716 RV ±3.7%
51% Rick Santorum 40% 11
56% Newt Gingrich 33% 23
52% Ron Paul 36% 16
Marquette Law School January 19–22, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 40% 8 701 RV ±3.8%

Three way race

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Libertarian % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Reason-Rupe May 14–18, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 36% Gary Johnson 6% 10 708 ±3.7%

See also

Notes

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