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Opinion polling for the 2017 New Zealand general election

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Various organisations commissioned opinion polls for the 2017 New Zealand general election during the term of the 51st New Zealand Parliament (2014–2017). Roy Morgan Research polled monthly, with MediaWorks New Zealand (3 News/Newshub Reid Research) and Television New Zealand (One News Colmar Brunton) polling less frequently. The last The New Zealand Herald (Herald Digipoll) was in December 2015, and Fairfax Media (Fairfax Media Ipsos) discontinued their poll after the 2014 election. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varied by organisation and date, but were typically 800–1000 participants with a margin of error of just over 3%.

The previous Parliament was elected on Saturday 20 September 2014. The 2017 general election was held on Saturday 23 September 2017.

Party vote and key events

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

Graphical summary

The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2014 election. The second graph shows parties that received between 1.0% and 4.9% of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2014 election.

Summary of poll results given below from the election result 20 September 2014. For simplicity, only political parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2014 election are shown. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.35), with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.
Summary poll results for political parties that received between 1.0% and 4.9% of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2014 election. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.35), with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.

Individual polls

Date Poll NAT LAB GRN NZF MRI ACT UNF CON MNA TOP
20 Sep 2014 2014 election result 47.04 25.13 10.70 8.66 1.32 0.69 0.22 3.97 1.42 N/A
29 Sep – 12 Oct 2014 Roy Morgan Research 43.5 22.5 17.5 7 2 0.5 0.5 5 1 N/A
27 Oct – 9 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan Research 49.5 24 14.5 6.5 1 0.5 0 2 0.5 N/A
24 Nov – 7 Dec 2014 Roy Morgan Research 46 27 12 7 2 1.5 0 2.5 1 N/A
8–21 Dec 2014 Herald–DigiPoll 50.4 28.9 9.5 5.6 1.5 0.4 0 2.9 0.2 N/A
5–18 Jan 2015 Roy Morgan Research 52 26 11 6 1.5 1 0 2 0 N/A
20–28 Jan 2015 3 News–Reid Research 49.8 29.1 9.3 6.9 1.3 0.4 0 2.7 0.6 N/A
2–15 Feb 2015 Roy Morgan Research 49 30 12 6 1 0 0 1.5 0 N/A
14–18 Feb 2015 One News–Colmar Brunton 49 31 10 6 1.5 0.3 0 1.4 0.4 N/A
2–15 Mar 2015 Roy Morgan Research 46.5 31 11 6 2 1 – 1.5 – N/A
28 Mar 2015 The Northland by-election is won by New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.
11–15 Apr 2015 One News–Colmar Brunton 49 31 9 7 0.8 0.5 – 1.5 1.1 N/A
6–19 Apr 2015 Roy Morgan Research 45.5 27.5 13.5 8 1.5 1 – 1 – N/A
17–26 Apr 2015 Herald-DigiPoll 51 28.7 10.8 6.1 0.8 0.8 – 1.1 – N/A
4–17 May 2015 Roy Morgan Research 54 25.5 10.5 6 1 1 0 1 – N/A
21 May 2015 The 2015 Budget is delivered.
23–27 May 2015 One News–Colmar Brunton 48 31 10 7 1.4 0.1 – 2.3 – N/A
21–27 May 2015 3 News–Reid Research 46.4 30.4 11.1 8.1 1.1 0.5 – 1.9 0.1 N/A
30 May 2015 James Shaw replaces Russel Norman as the Green Party co-leader.
8–21 Jun 2015 Roy Morgan Research 49.5 26 13 6.5 1 1 – 1 – N/A
22–27 Jun 2015 The Conservative Party disintegrates as leader Colin Craig and all board members resign. Acting leadership of the party is left unclear.
29 Jun – 12 Jul 2015 Roy Morgan Research 43 32 13 7 1.5 0.5 – 1.5 – N/A
11–15 Jul 2015 One News–Colmar Brunton 47 32 13 7 0.4 0.4 – – 0.5 N/A
15–22 Jul 2015 3 News–Reid Research 47 31.1 11.4 8.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.2 N/A
3–16 Aug 2015 Roy Morgan Research 50.5 27 11 8 1.5 0.5 – – 0.5 N/A
14–24 Aug 2015 Herald-DigiPoll 50.8 31 9.2 6.9 1 0.2 – 0.6 0.2 N/A
29 Aug – 2 Sep 2015 One News–Colmar Brunton 47 32 12 7 1.2 0.1 – 0.1 0.2 N/A
31 Aug – 13 Sep 2015 Roy Morgan Research 44.5 31 15 5.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 1 0.5 N/A
8–16 Sep 2015 3 News–Reid Research 47.3 33 10 7.9 0.5 0.6 – 0.5 – N/A
31 Sep – 11 Oct 2015 Roy Morgan Research 50 29 11.5 6.5 0.5 0.5 – 0.5 0.5 N/A
10–14 Oct 2015 One News–Colmar Brunton 47 31 12 9 0.8 0.2 – 0.4 – N/A
26 Oct – 8 Nov 2015 Roy Morgan Research 49 29.5 12 6 2 0.5 – 0.5 0.5 N/A
9–17 Nov 2015 3 News–Reid Research 46.7 32.3 10.2 7.5 1.3 0.8 – 0.7 0.2 N/A
23 Nov – 6 Dec 2015 Roy Morgan Research 49 28.5 13 6 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 – N/A
4–14 Dec 2015 Herald-DigiPoll 51.3 31.1 8.2 5.7 2.1 0.8 0.3 – – N/A
4–17 Jan 2016 Roy Morgan Research 47 27.5 14 6.5 3 0.5 – 1 – N/A
4 Feb 2016 The Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement is signed by the New Zealand government and 12 other partner countries.
1–14 Feb 2016 Roy Morgan Research 48 27 14.5 6 1 0.5 – 1 0.5 N/A
13–17 Feb 2016 One News–Colmar Brunton 47 32 8 10 1.1 0.3 – 0.6 0.3 N/A
29 Feb – 13 Mar 2016 Roy Morgan Research 46 28 14 9 1 1 – 0.5 0.5 N/A
2–6 Apr 2016 One News–Colmar Brunton 50 28 10 9 1.1 0.7 – 0.3 – N/A
4–17 Apr 2016 Roy Morgan Research 42.5 26 14.5 12.5 1.5 1.5 – 1 – N/A
2–15 May 2016 Roy Morgan Research 45.5 29.5 12 9.5 1 1 0 0.5 – N/A
12–22 May 2016 Newshub Reid Research 47 31.3 11.1 7.8 1 0.4 – 0.6 0.1 N/A
26 May 2016 The 2016 Budget is delivered.
31 May 2016 The Labour and Green parties undertake a memorandum of understanding.
28 May – 2 Jun 2016 One News–Colmar Brunton 48 29 12 9 0.7 0.3 – 0.7 0.1 N/A
12 Jun 2016 Roy Morgan Research 43.5 28 14.5 9 2 0.5 – 1 1 N/A
17 Jul 2016 Roy Morgan Research 53 25.5 11.5 7 0.5 1 – 0.5 0.5 N/A
22 Jul – 3 Aug 2016 Newshub Reid Research 45.1 32.7 11.5 8.1 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 N/A
8–21 Aug 2016 Roy Morgan Research 46 25.5 14.5 9.5 1.5 1 – 1 0.5 N/A
3–7 Sep 2016 One News–Colmar Brunton 48 26 13 11 2 – – 0.3 – N/A
5–18 Sep 2016 Roy Morgan Research 41.5 33.5 12 8.5 2 1 – 0.5 – N/A
10–23 Oct 2016 Roy Morgan Research 48 26.5 11.5 10 1.5 0.5 – – – N/A
14 Nov 2016 A 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits the coastal town of Kaikōura.
Nov 2016 The Opportunities Party is inaugurated by Gareth Morgan.
12–23 Nov 2016 One News–Colmar Brunton 50 28 11 10 1 – – 0.2 – –
24 Oct – 20 Nov 2016 Roy Morgan Research 49.5 23.0 14.5 8.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 –
3 Dec 2016 Labour's Michael Wood wins the Mount Roskill by-election.
5 Dec 2016 John Key announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of New Zealand, effective 12 December.
28 Nov – 11 Dec 2016 Roy Morgan Research 45.0 28.5 14.5 7.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 –
12 Dec 2016 Bill English replaces John Key as Prime Minister of New Zealand and Leader of the National Party.
Paula Bennett becomes both Deputy Prime Minister and Deputy Leader.
3–16 Jan 2017 Roy Morgan Research 46.0 27.0 12.5 9.0 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 –
1 Feb 2017 Prime Minister Bill English announces that the election will take place on 23 September 2017.
30 Jan – 12 Feb 2017 Roy Morgan Research 48.0 26.0 13.0 8.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 –
11–15 Feb 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton 46 30 11 11 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.0
25 Feb 2017 Labour's Jacinda Ardern wins the Mount Albert by-election.
1 Mar 2017 Annette King steps down as Labour Party Deputy Leader and announces her retirement from Parliament, effective September. Mount Albert MP Jacinda Ardern is nominated as her successor and is confirmed six days later with the unanimous support of Labour's caucus.
6 Mar 2017 The Opportunities Party is registered by the Electoral Commission.
27 Feb – 12 Mar 2017 Roy Morgan Research 43.5 29.5 14.5 7.5 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 –
10–19 Mar 2017 Newshub Reid Research 47.1 30.8 11.2 7.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8
18–22 Mar 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton 46 30 11 8 4 0.4 – 0.3 0.2 0.4
3–16 Apr 2017 Roy Morgan Research 43.0 29.5 13.0 10.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 –
1–14 May 2017 Roy Morgan Research 43.0 28.5 14.0 10.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 –
25 May 2017 The 2017 budget is delivered.
19–24 May 2017 Listener: Bauer Media Insights 43.75 23.75 16.25 10.00 1.25 1.25 0.00 1.25 – 2.50
21–31 May 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton 49 30 9 9 0.6 0.5 – 0.1 – 1.4
29 May – 11 Jun 2017 Roy Morgan Research 46.5 25.5 14.0 9.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 –
12 Jun 2017 Newshub Reid Research 47.4 26.4 12.5 9.4 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.8
21 Jun 2017 National MP Todd Barclay announces he will not seek re-election after it was revealed that he secretly recorded a staff member's conversations without her consent. Police re-open their investigation five days later, after Bill English stated that Barclay had admitted to him that he made the recording.
1–5 Jul 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton 47 27 11 11 1.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.1
26 Jun – 9 Jul 2017 Roy Morgan Research 43 30.5 13.5 8.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 –
16 Jul 2017 Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei admits to not disclosing to Work and Income New Zealand that she was accepting rent from flatmates while on the Domestic Purposes Benefit in the early 1990s.
22–27 Jul 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton 47 24 15 11 0.6 0.3 0.1 – – 1.5
20–28 Jul 2017 Newshub Reid Research 45.2 24.1 13 13 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 2
1 Aug 2017 Labour Party leader Andrew Little resigns as Leader of the Labour Party following consecutive poll results that show Labour with low support. Jacinda Ardern is confirmed as Leader shortly after while Kelvin Davis assumes the role of Deputy Leader.
1–2 Aug 2017 Listener: Bauer Media Insights 45.42 26.79 13.98 9.32 0.00 1.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.33
3 Aug 2017 Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei admits to registering a false residential address to vote for a friend who was running in the Mount Albert electorate in 1993. The controversy leads Green Party MPs David Clendon and Kennedy Graham to withdraw from the party list four days later.
2–8 Aug 2017 Newshub Reid Research 44.4 33.1 8.3 9.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 2
9 Aug 2017 Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei resigns as co-leader and from the party list following her admission of benefit fraud.
31 Jul – 13 Aug 2017 Roy Morgan Research 42.5 32.5 9.0 11.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
12–16 Aug 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton 44 37 4.3 10 1.7 0.4 0.0 – – 2.1
21 Aug 2017 United Future leader and Minister of Internal Affairs Peter Dunne announces his retirement from politics. Damian Light (candidate for Botany) is appointed leader 2 days later.
27 Aug 2017 Controversy arises after a leak reveals that NZ First leader Winston Peters was overpaid in his superannuation payments for years.
22–30 Aug 2017 Newshub Reid Research 43.3 39.4 6.1 6.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.9
26–30 Aug 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton 41 43 5 8 0.5 0.3 – – – 0.9
1–5 Sep 2017 Listener: Bauer Media Insights 38.9 41.1 6.7 8.9 1.1 1.1 – – – 2.2
2–6 Sep 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton 39 43 5 9 2.0 0.1 – – – 1.9
4–6 Sep 2017 Newsroom-SSI 30 45 6 11 2 1 – – – 2
28 Aug – 10 Sep 2017 Roy Morgan Research 40 39.5 9 6 2 0.5 0 0.5 – 2
6–11 Sep 2017 Newshub Reid Research 47.3 37.8 4.9 6.0 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.6
11 Sep 2017 Advance voting for the election begins. The Electoral Commission predicts up to 50% of voters will cast their vote before election day (up from 30% in 2014).
9–13 Sep 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton 40 44 7 6 0.9 0.6 – – – 1.6
13–20 Sep 2017 Newshub Reid Research 45.8 37.3 7.1 7.1 0.4 0.6 – 0.6 0.1 0.9
15–19 Sep 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton 46 37 8 4.9 0.5 0.3 – – – 2.3
23 Sep 2017 Election day
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 44.4 36.9 6.3 7.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.4
Date Poll NAT LAB GRN NZF MRI ACT UNF CON MNA TOP

Internal polls

These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those which are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.

Date Poll NAT LAB GRN NZF MRI ACT CON MNA TOP
20 Sep 2014 2014 election result 47.04 25.13 10.70 8.66 1.32 0.69 3.97 1.40 N/A
Oct 2014 UMR Research 50 24 13 7.8 1.5 0.6 3.0 0.8 N/A
Nov 2014 UMR Research 47 25 13 7.6 2.7 0.4 3.0 0.8 N/A
Dec 2014 UMR Research 45 30 14 6.1 0.6 0.2 3.3 0.5 N/A
Jan 2015 UMR Research 48 31 12 5.8 1.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 N/A
Feb 2015 UMR Research 46 32 12 5.0 1.5 0.7 2.7 0.3 N/A
Mar 2015 UMR Research 46 31 11 6.9 1.6 0.4 3.1 0.4 N/A
Apr 2015 UMR Research 43 32 13 7.6 1.8 1.1 1.2 0.3 N/A
May 2015 UMR Research 46 31 10 6.8 1.3 1.1 3.0 0.4 N/A
Jun 2015 UMR Research 45 32 13 7.5 1.2 0.5 0.9 0.2 N/A
Jul 2015 UMR Research 41 35 14 6.7 1.2 0.3 3.0 0.5 N/A
Aug 2015 UMR Research 42 31 14 8.5 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 N/A
Sep 2015 UMR Research 45 31 13 8.7 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.4 N/A
Oct 2015 UMR Research 48 31 10 7.9 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 N/A
Nov 2015 UMR Research 44 31 13 8.0 1.5 0.5 1.2 0.1 N/A
Dec 2015 UMR Research 45 35 10 8.3 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.2 N/A
31 Aug – 5 Sep 2016 UMR Research 40 31 14 11 – – – – N/A
Early Jan 2017 UMR Research 46 30 11 9 – – – – –
Early Feb 2017 UMR Research 44 30 12 11 – – – – –
Late Feb 2017 UMR Research 48 28 12 8 – – – – –
Early Mar 2017 UMR Research 42 30 14 10 – – – – –
Late Mar 2017 UMR Research 44 30 12 10 – – – – –
Early Apr 2017 UMR Research 43 28 13 12 – – – – –
Late Apr 2017 UMR Research 43 28 12 12 – – – – –
Early May 2017 UMR Research 42 34 13 9 – – – – –
Late May 2017 UMR Research 44 30 13 9 – – – – –
Early Jun 2017 UMR Research 42 32 13 9 – – – – –
Late Jun 2017 UMR Research 43 29 12 11 – – – – –
5–10 Jul 2017 UMR Research 42 26 13 14 – – – – –
Late Jul 2017 UMR Research 42 23 15 16 – – – – –
1–8 Aug 2017 UMR Research 43 36 8 8 – – – – 3
11–16 Aug 2017 UMR Research 40 37 8 9 – – – – 3.5
20 Sep 2017 Curia 43 39 6 6 – – – – –

Preferred prime minister

Graphical summary

Summary of Preferred Prime Minister Polls from 2015 to September 2017. Lines show the mean, as estimated by a Loess smoother. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.

Individual polls

Poll Date Bill English Jacinda Ardern Winston Peters James Shaw Hone Harawira Gareth Morgan Peter Dunne Metiria Turei Andrew Little John Key
Herald-DigiPoll 8–21 Dec 2014 – 1.7 – – – – – – 13.6 65
3 News-Reid Research 20–28 Jan 2015 0.3 – 7.6 – – – – – 9.8 44.0
One News-Colmar Brunton 14–18 Feb 2015 0.6 0.7 7.0 – 0.4 – – 1.1 12.0 41.0
Herald-DigiPoll 17–26 Apr 2015 – – 12 – – – – – 13.9 64.6
3 News Reid Research 21–27 May 2015 0.6 – 11.2 – – – – – 11.6 39.4
3 News Reid Research 15–22 Jul 2015 0.2 – 11.3 0.2 – – – – 10.2 38.3
Herald-DigiPoll 14–24 Aug 2015 – 3.9 11.6 0.6 – – – 0.9 13.3 63.7
3 News Reid Research 8–16 Sep 2015 0.3 3.5 8.6 0.2 – – 0.1 – 10.8 39.5
3 News Reid Research 9–17 Nov 2015 0.7 4.2 9.3 – – – 0.1 – 10.4 38.3
Herald-DigiPoll 4–14 Dec 2015 – 2.8 7.9 – – – – – 16.2 65.2
One News Colmar Brunton 2–6 Apr 2016 0.9 2 10 0.4 – – – – 7 39
Newshub Reid Research 12–22 May 2016 0.2 2.6 12.1 0.5 – – – – 8.9 36.7
One News Colmar Brunton 28 May – 2 Jun 2016 0.4 1 12 0.4 – – – – 7 39
Newshub Reid Research 22 Jul – 3 Aug 2016 0.3 2.9 10.9 0.9 – 0.3 – 1 10.5 36.7
One News Colmar Brunton 3–7 Sep 2016 – 1 11 0.1 – – – – 10 38
One News Colmar Brunton 12–23 Nov 2016 – 1 8 0.3 – 0.1 0.3 1 8 36
12 Dec 2016 – Bill English replaces John Key as Prime Minister of New Zealand and Leader of the National Party.
One News Colmar Brunton 11–15 Feb 2017 31 4 8 0.3 – 0.1 – 2 7 2
Newshub Reid Research 10–19 Mar 2017 25 10.5 8.9 – – 0.1 – 1 8.3 5.9
One News Colmar Brunton 18–22 Mar 2017 26 9 9 0.5 0.3 – 0.2 0.4 7 2
Listener: Bauer Media Insights 19–24 May 2017 39 16 9 2 – 2 – 3 13 –
One News Colmar Brunton 21–31 May 2017 29 6 7 0.4 – 0.2 0.1 0.7 8 2
Newshub Reid Research 2–12 Jun 2017 26.2 6.6 9.7 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.3 1.4 7 5.9
One News Colmar Brunton 1–5 Jul 2017 26 6 11 0.5 0.5 0.7 – 0.2 5 1
One News Colmar Brunton 22–27 Jul 2017 28 6 10 0.2 – 0.3 0.2 1 6 1
Newshub Reid Research 20–28 Jul 2017 25.8 8.7 11.9 0.7 0.2 0.8 0.4 1.6 7.1 6
1 Aug 2017 – Jacinda Ardern replaces Andrew Little as Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Labour Party.
Newshub Reid Research 2–8 Aug 2017 27.7 26.3 10 0.2 0.5 0.6 – 0.8 0.9 4.9
9 Aug 2017 – Metiria Turei resigns as co-leader of the Green Party.
One News Colmar Brunton 12–16 Aug 2017 30 30 7 0.3 0.4 0.7 – – – 0.5
21–23 Aug 2017 – Peter Dunne retires as leader of United Future and is replaced by Damian Light.
Newshub Reid Research 22–30 Aug 2017 30.1 29.9 6.9 0.5 0.1 0.6 0 0.8 0.3 4.6
One News Colmar Brunton 26–30 Aug 2017 33 34 4 0.4 – 0.4 – 0.8 – –
Listener: Bauer Media Insights 1–5 Sep 2017 36 46 6 1 – 1 – – – –
One News Colmar Brunton 2–6 Sep 2017 31 35 5 1 0.1 0.5 – – 0.1 0.7
Newsroom: SSI 4–6 Sep 2017 31 45 11 – – – – – – –
Newshub Reid Research 6–11 Sep 2017 33.1 31.7 6.9 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.1 4.1
One News Colmar Brunton 9–13 Sep 2017 32 34 5 0.3 – 0.3 – 0.2 – 0.6
Newshub Reid Research 13–20 Sep 2017 34.7 29.6 7.1 0.6 – 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.4 3.6
One News Colmar Brunton 15–19 Sep 2017 37 31 6 0.3 0.3 0.2 – 0.1 – 0.7
Poll Date Bill English Jacinda Ardern Winston Peters James Shaw Hone Harawira Gareth Morgan Peter Dunne Metiria Turei Andrew Little John Key

Electorate polling

Ōhāriu

Party vote

Poll Date National Labour Green NZ First TOP United Future Māori ACT
2014 election result 20 September 2014 50.23 23.42 15.01 4.76 —* 0.73 0.57 0.67
Q+A Colmar Brunton 5 – 9 Aug 2017 46 35 12 4 1.8 0.5 0.4 0.3

* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

Candidate vote

Poll Date Labour

Greg O'Connor

United Future

Peter Dunne

National

Brett Hudson

Green

Tane Woodley

TOP

Jessica Hammond Doube

ACT

Andie Moore

Labour

Ginny Andersen

ACT

Sean Fitzpatrick

2014 election result 20 September 2014 — 36.23 16.34 7.38 —* — 34.34 0.55
14 Feb 2017 – Green Party choose not to stand a candidate to help Labour candidate Greg O'Connor defeat Peter Dunne.
Q+A Colmar Brunton 5 – 9 August 2017 48 34 14 — 2 1 — —
21 Aug 2017 – Ōhāriu Incumbent Peter Dunne (leader of United Future) announces that he will now be retiring from politics.
23 Aug 2017 – United Future stand Bale Nadakuitavuki as a candidate and Green Party reinstate Tane Woodley as a candidate.

* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

Waiariki

Party vote

Poll Date Labour Māori NZ First National Green
2014 election result 20 September 2014 38.37 21.79 12.54 5.00 7.98
Community Engagement Ltd 19 – 22 July 2017 19.4 18.9 25.7 13.4 12.1
Maori TV-Reid Research July – 3 September 2017 49.6 26.5 10.2 5.6 4.8

Candidate vote

Poll Date Māori

Te Ururoa Flavell

Labour

Tāmati Coffey

Labour

Rawiri Waititi

Mana

Annette Sykes

2014 election result 20 September 2014 43.42 — 26.06 24.48
26 Aug 2016 – Rawiri Waititi cuts allegiances with Labour after being inspired by the Māori King to encourage Mana and Māori parties to win all Māori electorates by working together.

07 Oct 2016 – Tāmati Coffey is announced as Labour candidate for Waiariki electorate. Coffey ran for Rotorua electorate in 2014 gaining 33.18% of the vote against Todd McClay who won with 54.97% of the vote.

20 Feb 2017 – Mana begin a memorandum of understanding with the Māori Party to not contest in any electorates where Māori Party have candidates, in an attempt to win back the Māori electorates from Labour.

Community Engagement Ltd 19 – 22 July 2017 31.6 30.1 — —
Maori TV-Reid Research July – 3 September 2017 60.1 39.9 — —

The Māori roll (all 7 electorates)

Poll Date Labour Māori NZ First National Green Mana TOP
2014 election result 20 September 2014 41.22 14.05 12.98 7.93 11.17 10.22 N/A*
Māori TV, Reid Research Poll 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 46.5 17.5 13.8 9.5 9.0 1.8 1.5

* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

Whangarei

Party vote

Poll Date National Labour NZ First Green Māori ACT TOP
2014 election result 20 September 2014 50.08 17.80 13.36 9.77 0.53 0.55 N/A*
30 Jun 2017 – Shane Jones is confirmed as the New Zealand First candidate in Whangarei (National have held the Whangarei seat since 1975).
Q+A Colmar Brunton 19 – 22 Aug 2017 41 37 16 3.6 1.3 1.0 0.4

* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

Candidate vote

Poll Date National

Shane Reti

NZ First

Shane Jones

Labour

Tony Savage

Green

Ash Holwell

DFSC

Chris Leitch

ACT

Robin Grieve

Labour

Kelly Ellis

NZ First

Pita Paraone

Green

Paul Doherty

2014 election result 20 September 2014 55.07 N/A N/A N/A 2.68 0.78 19.01 8.06 8.66
30 Jun 2017 – Shane Jones is confirmed as the New Zealand First candidate in Whangarei (National have held the Whangarei seat since 1975).
Q+A Colmar Brunton 19 – 22 Aug 2017 42 24 22 10 1.7 0.1 N/A N/A N/A

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti

Party vote

Poll Date Labour Māori Mana National NZ First Green ACT TOP
2014 election result 20 September 2014 47.38 12.19 — 5.37 11.25 10.28 0.11 —
Māori TV Reid Research 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 50.4 21.1 1.3 5.9 12 7.5 0.3 1.6

Candidate vote

Poll Date Labour

Meka Whaitiri

Māori

Marama Fox

Green

Elizabeth Kerekere

Māori TV Reid Research 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 55 39 6

Te Tai Hauāuru

Party vote

Poll Date Labour Māori National Green NZ First Mana TOP
2014 election result 20 September 2014 42.23 17.64 7.11 11.93 11.79 6.82 —
Māori TV Reid Research 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 41.8 24 11.2 9.1 11 1.3 1.3

Candidate vote

Poll Date Labour

Adrian Rurawhe

Māori

Howie Tamati

Green

Jack McDonald

Māori TV Reid Research 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 39 52 9.1

Te Tai Tonga

Party vote

Poll Date Labour National Māori Green NZ First ACT TOP
2014 election result 20 September 2014 36.7 14.92 11.19 16.41 12.82 0.17 —
Māori TV Reid Research 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 47.6 14.1 11.7 9.3 14.4 0.3 2.4

Candidate vote

Poll Date Labour

Rino Tirikatene

Māori

Mei Reedy-Taare

Green

Metiria Turei

Māori TV Reid Research 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 57.1 22.1 20.7

Hauraki-Waikato

Party vote

Poll Date Labour NZ First Māori
2014 election result 20 September 2014 46.50 13.37 11.97
Māori TV-Reid Research 11 Jul – 3 Sept 2017 52.6 15.1 14.5

Candidate vote

Poll Date Labour

Nanaia Mahuta

Māori

Rahui Papa

Mana

Susan Cullen

2014 election result 20 September 2014 59.54 21.96 15.22
Māori TV-Reid Research 11 Jul – 3 Sept 2017 78 22 —

Tāmaki Makaurau

Party vote

Poll Date Labour NZ First Māori Green National
2014 election result 20 September 2014 40.45 13.98 12.72 11.69 7.55
Māori TV-Reid Research 12 Jul – 5 Sept 2017 47.0 12.6 14.5 11.3 12.6

Candidate vote

Poll Date Labour

Peeni Henare

Māori

Shane Taurima

Green

Marama Davidson

Māori

Rangi McLean

2014 election result 20 September 2014 37.48 — 15.60 30.21
Māori TV-Reid Research 12 Jul – 5 Sept 2017 46.0 32.6 21.4 —

Te Tai Tokerau

Party vote

Poll Date Labour NZ First Māori Green National Mana
2014 election result 20 September 2014 38.8 8.1 9.1 8.7 10.2 16.3
Māori TV-Reid Research 12 Jul – 5 Sept 2017 49.7 14.7 9.7 10.3 7.9 6.1

Candidate vote

Poll Date Labour

Kelvin Davis

Mana

Hone Harawira

Green

Godfrey Rudoplh

2014 election result 20 September 2014 43.90 40.53 —
Māori TV-Reid Research 12 Jul – 5 Sept 2017 67.4 30.3 2.3

Forecasts

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no changes to electorate seats each party holds (ACT retains Epsom, Māori retains Waiariki, Labour retains Te Tai Tokerau, etc.) unless there is a specific reason to assume change. For example, after Peter Dunne announced his retirement, projections stopped assuming United Future would retain Ōhāriu. Other parties that do not pass the 5% threshold are assumed to not to win an electorate and therefore gain no seats.

Radio New Zealand takes a "poll of polls" average to produce their forecast. The New Zealand Herald bases theirs on a predictive model incorporating poll data as well as past election results and past poll accuracy. Newshub and 1 News and produce projections based on their own polls only.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority. This happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but they formed a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.

Party Newshub
13–20 Sep 2017 poll 		1 News
15–19 Sep 2017 poll 		Roy Morgan
28 Aug–10 Sep 2017 poll 		Radio NZ
as of 21 Sep 2017 		NZ Herald
as of 22 Sep 2017 		Stuff
as of 22 Sep 2017 		Official result
National 56 58 50 55 56 (±2) 54 56
Labour 45 46 49 46 47 (±3) 46 46
NZ First 9 6 7 8 9 (±2) 7 9
Green 9 9 11 9 7 (±2) 10 8
ACT 1 1* 1 1 1 1 1
Māori Party 2** 1 2 1 1 1 0
Seats in Parliament 122 121 120 120 120 120 120
Overall result (majority) National−NZ First (65) National−NZ First (64) Labour−Green−Māori (62) National–NZ First (63) National–NZ First (65) National–NZ First (61) National–NZ First (65)
Labour−Green−NZ First (63) Labour−Green−NZ First (61) Labour−Green−NZ First (63) Labour−Green–NZ First (62) Labour−Green–NZ First (63) Labour−Green–NZ First (63)
* indicates an overhang seat
  1. ^ These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  2. ^ For the Internet MANA party vote alliance.
  3. The Herald's forecasted numbers are the medians of all likely outcomes for that party. The sum of the parties' forecasted seats does not necessarily equal the total likely seats in Parliament. In this table, "Seats in Parliament" is calculated by adding the number of forecast overhang seats to 120, even if the individual parties' seat projections do not add up to this number.
  4. Stuff's projected numbers add up to 119, but this outcome is impossible. Calculation (based on exact percentage) shows that 120th and last seat would be allocated to Labour. Taking into account that the polling average have three significant figures it is not possible to decide which party get the last seat.

New Zealand does not have a strong tradition of third-party forecast models. Some private individuals have created their own projection models.

See also

Notes

References

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New Zealand Opinion polling for general elections in New Zealand
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