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2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska

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For related races, see 2024 United States House of Representatives elections. Not to be confused with 2024 Alaska House of Representatives election.

2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska's at-large district

← 2022 November 5, 2024 2026 →
 
Candidate Nick Begich III Mary Peltola
Party Republican Democratic
First
round
159,550
48.41%
152,828
46.37%
Maximum
round
164,861
51.22%
156,985
48.78%

First round results by borough and census area First round results by State House district First round results by precinctFinal round results by borough and census areaBegich:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Peltola:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%

U.S. Representative before election

Mary Peltola
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Nick Begich III
Republican

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The 2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska from its at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House, elections to the United States Senate, and various other state and local elections.

Incumbent Mary Peltola, the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House since 1972, sought a second full term in office. Peltola had been elected in an August 2022 special election to succeed deceased Republican Don Young. She won a full term the following November.

In accordance with 2020 Alaska Measure 2, the race was conducted using the state's ranked-choice voting procedures. Eleven candidates challenged Peltola in the August all-party primary. Republicans Nick Begich III, Nancy Dahlstrom, and Matthew Salisbury initially qualified for spots in the ranked-choice general election, but Dahlstrom and Salisbury withdrew shortly after the primary in a show of party unity. The final general election ballot thus featured Peltola, Begich, Alaskan Independence Party nominee John Wayne Howe, and Democrat Eric Hafner. The Alaska Democratic Party attempted to have Hafner removed from the ballot due to his status as a federal prisoner in New York, but the Alaska Supreme Court rejected their arguments.

Given Alaska's conservative lean, Peltola was considered a top target for Republicans throughout the cycle. By late October, multiple outlets regarded Peltola as one of the 10 most vulnerable incumbents running for reelection in the House. Despite Peltola's loss, she did outperform Kamala Harris in the concurrent 2024 presidential election in Alaska by about 10 points, but this was not enough to win.

Begich was declared the winner on November 20, following the tabulation of ranked-choice votes.

Candidates

Democratic Party

Advanced to general

Republican Party

Advanced to general

Withdrew after advancing to general

Eliminated in primary

  • Gerald Heikes, drywall contractor and perennial candidate

No Labels

Eliminated in primary

Alaskan Independence Party

Advanced to general

Independents

Eliminated in primary

  • David Ambrose
  • Samuel Claesson, author
  • Lady Donna Dutchess, notary, candlemaker, and candidate for U.S. House in 2022
  • Richard Mayers

Primary election

Endorsements

Nick Begich (R)

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Individuals

  • Vivek Ramaswamy, pharmaceutical executive and 2024 Republican presidential candidate

Organizations

Nancy Dahlstrom (R)

U.S. Presidents

Governors

U.S. representatives

Organizations

Mary Peltola (D)

U.S. senators

  • Lisa Murkowski, U.S. Senator from Alaska (2002–present) (Republican)

Labor unions

Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Mary Peltola (D) $7,541,673 $5,396,920 $2,836,013
Nick Begich (R) $982,905 $851,591 $172,548
Nancy Dahlstrom (R) $912,308 $912,308 $317,617
Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Top four primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Nick
Begich (R)
Nancy
Dahlstrom (R)
Mary
Peltola (D)
Other Undecided
Data for Progress (D) February 23 – March 4, 2024 1,120 (LV) ± 3.0% 35% 10% 44% 2% 8%
Remington Research (R) December 11–14, 2023 672 (LV) ± 4.0% 28% 9% 42% 9% 11%

Results

Results by state house district:   Peltola—70–80%   Peltola—60–70%   Peltola—50–60%   Peltola—40–50%   Peltola—30–40%   Begich—30–40%   Begich—40–50%

Peltola performed well in the primary, securing slightly more than 50% of the vote. She received the plurality of the vote in 33 out of 40 Alaska House of Representatives districts. Her top three districts were the fourth district in Southeast Alaska (79.5% of the vote) as well as the 17th and the 19th districts located in Anchorage (75.3% and 71.0% of the vote respectively).

Blanket primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mary Peltola (incumbent) 55,166 50.9
Republican Nick Begich III 28,803 26.6
Republican Nancy Dahlstrom (withdrew) 21,574 19.9
Republican Matthew Salisbury (withdrew) 652 0.6
Independence John Wayne Howe 621 0.6
Democratic Eric Hafner 467 0.4
Republican Gerald Heikes 424 0.4
Independent Lady Donna Dutchess 195 0.2
Independent David Ambrose 154 0.1
No Labels Richard Grayson 143 0.1
Independent Richard Mayers 119 0.1
Independent Samuel Claesson 89 0.1
Total votes 108,407 100.00

General election

On August 23, Nancy Dahlstrom withdrew from the general election. Despite initially stating he had no plans to withdraw, Matthew Salisbury also dropped out of the race. They were replaced by fifth-place finisher John Wayne Howe of the Alaskan Independence Party and sixth-place finisher Eric Hafner, a Democrat. Hafner remained on the ballot even though he has never been to Alaska, and was serving a 20-year sentence in a federal penitentiary in New York. The Alaska Democratic Party sued to remove Hafner from the general election ballot, but an Anchorage Superior Court judge dismissed the lawsuit. The party appealed to the Alaska Supreme Court, who upheld the lower court's decision, keeping Hafner on the ballot.

Post-primary endorsements

Mary Peltola (D)

Statewide officials

Organizations

Nick Begich (R)

U.S. presidents

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Governors

Organizations

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Tossup September 6, 2024
Inside Elections Tilt R (flip) October 31, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean R (flip) November 4, 2024
Elections Daily Lean R (flip) November 4, 2024
CNalysis Tilt D November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ Tossup October 22, 2024

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mary
Peltola (D)
Nick
Begich (R)
Other Undecided
American Viewpoint (R) September 14–17, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 40% 44% 6% 10%
Cygnal (R) August 30 – September 1, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 45% 9%
American Viewpoint (R) Late August 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 39% 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
RCV
round
Mary
Peltola (D)
Nick
Begich (R)
John
Wayne Howe (AIP)
Eric
Hafner (D)
Cygnal (R) October 14–16, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9%
1 44.5% 49.1% 4.0% 2.4%
2 45.5% 49.6% 4.8% Elim
3 47.9% 52.1% Elim Elim
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
RCV
round
Mary
Peltola (D)
Nick
Begich (R)
Nancy
Dahlstrom (R)
Chris
Bye (L)
Data for Progress (D) February 23 – March 2, 2024 1,120 (LV) ± 3.0%
1 47% 39% 12% 3%
2 48% 41% 12% Elim
3 50% 50% Elim Elim

Debates and forums

2024 Alaska U.S. House of Representatives debates and forums
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican Independence Democratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Peltola Begich Howe Hafner
1 Aug. 28, 2024 Alaska Oil and Gas Association Michelle Egan YouTube P P N N
2 Oct. 8, 2024 Kodiak Chamber of Commerce
KMXT (FM)
Terry Haines YouTube P P P N
3 Oct. 10, 2024 Alaska Chamber of Commerce P P N N
4 Oct. 10, 2024 Alaska Public Media
KTUU-TV
Rebecca Palsha
Lori Townsend
YouTube P P N N

Results

2024 Alaska's at-large congressional district election
Party Candidate First choice Round 1 Round 2 Round 3
Votes % Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes %
Republican Nick Begich III 159,550 48.41% 159,777 48.49% +267 160,044 48.77% +4,817 164,861 51.22%
Democratic Mary Peltola (incumbent) 152,828 46.37% 152,948 46.42% +1,313 154,261 47.01% +2,724 156,985 48.78%
Independence John Wayne Howe 13,010 3.95% 13,210 4.01% +661 13,871 4.23% -13,871 Eliminated
Democratic Eric Hafner 3,417 1.04% 3,558 1.08% -3,558 Eliminated
Write-in 750 0.23% Eliminated
Total votes 329,555 329,493 328,176 321,846
Inactive ballots 6,360 +1,317 7,677 +6,330 14,007
Republican gain from Democratic

Notes

  1. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Chris Bye (L) with 2%
  3. Chris Bye (L) with 7%; Richard Grayson (NL) with 2%
  4. Numbered as the 4th from 2013–2019
  5. "Someone else" with 6%
  6. Includes overvotes, undervotes, and exhausted ballots where another candidate was not ranked.

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by Begich's campaign
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by the NRCC
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by Begich's campaign and the NRCC

References

  1. Acuña Buxton, Matt (September 4, 2024). "A dozen candidates have dropped out of Alaska's general election". The Alaska Current. Retrieved November 26, 2024.
  2. ^ Brooks, James (September 13, 2024). "Alaska Supreme Court rejects Democrats' attempt to remove candidate from U.S. House ballot". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved September 16, 2024.
  3. Ruskin, Liz (August 3, 2023). "Peltola is a GOP target. She's stepped up her campaign fundraising". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved November 26, 2024.
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  45. Data for Progress (D)
  46. Remington Research (R)
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  54. Kitchenman, Andrew (October 19, 2024). "Alaska Federation of Natives endorses Peltola, opposes ranked choice repeal". Alaska Beacon. Retrieved October 27, 2024.
  55. Irwin, Lauren (August 1, 2024). "NRA issues rare endorsement of Democrat in backing Peltola". The Hill. Retrieved October 27, 2024.
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  61. Downing, Suzanne (September 3, 2024). "Gov. Dunleavy endorses Nick Begich for Congress". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved September 15, 2024.
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  63. "AFP Action Endorses Nick Begich for Congress". Americans for Prosperity Action. September 10, 2024. Retrieved September 15, 2024.
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  73. ^ American Viewpoint (R)
  74. Cygnal (R)
  75. Cygnal (R)
  76. Data for Progress (D)
  77. Kitchenman, Andrew (August 28, 2024). "U.S. House candidates seek Alaska oil and gas industry support in forum". Alaska Beacon. Retrieved October 9, 2024.
  78. Brooks, James (October 9, 2024). "At U.S. House debate in Kodiak, candidates differ on future of Alaska fisheries". Alaska Beacon. Retrieved October 10, 2024.
  79. Brooks, James (October 10, 2024). "In Fairbanks, Begich and Peltola offer sharply different views of federal spending in Alaska". Alaska Beacon. Retrieved October 12, 2024.
  80. "State of Alaska 2024 GENERAL ELECTION Election Summary Report November 5, 2024 OFFICIAL RESULTS" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. November 30, 2024. Retrieved November 30, 2024.
  81. "US House RCV Detailed Report" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. November 30, 2024. Retrieved November 30, 2024.

External links

Official campaign sites

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