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2024 United States presidential election in West Virginia

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Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in West Virginia

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote 4 0
Popular vote 533,556 214,309
Percentage 69.97% 28.10%

County results Congressional district results Precinct results

Trump

  40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100%

Harris

  40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100%


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in West Virginia took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. West Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of West Virginia has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost one congressional seat.

Republican Donald Trump easily won West Virginia a third time in 2024, with a 41.9% margin of victory and just under 70% of the vote. Having been Trump's strongest state in 2016 and his second-strongest state in 2020, another strong Republican win was near-guaranteed in West Virginia.

This marks the fourth presidential election, both consecutively and ever, in which the Republican won every county in West Virginia. Trump's 69.97% of the vote is the highest percentage any party has won in the state's entire history, going back to 1864.

Background

Despite being a Democratic stronghold for much of the 20th century, West Virginia — as a rural Southern state in the heart of Appalachia and largely within the Bible Belt — has trended dramatically towards the Republican Party in the 21st century. The last Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state was fellow Southerner Bill Clinton, who did so comfortably in his 1992 and 1996 victories. However, due to the increasingly liberal policies adopted by the Democratic Party — especially environmentalist policies — Republicans have rapidly gained traction among West Virginians, and carried the state in every presidential election since 2000, by consistently increasing margins. No Democratic presidential nominee has won even 40% of the state's vote since Barack Obama in 2008, or 30% since Obama's 2012 re-election.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 West Virginia Democratic presidential primary

The West Virginia Democratic presidential primary was held on May 14, 2024, alongside the Maryland and Nebraska primaries. 25 delegates (20 pledged and 5 unpledged) to the Democratic National Convention were allocated to presidential candidates.

Four candidates have been certified to appear on the primary ballot:

Results

West Virginia Democratic primary, May 14, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 68,164 70.5% 20 20
Jason Palmer 11,079 11.5%
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn) 7,371 7.6%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 7,222 7.5%
Armando Perez-Serrato 2,786 2.9%
Total: 96,622 100.0% 20 5 25

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 West Virginia Republican presidential primary

The West Virginia Republican presidential primary was held on May 14, 2024, alongside the Maryland and Nebraska primaries. 31 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated on a winner-take-all basis.

Five candidates have been certified to appear on the primary ballot:

Results

West Virginia Republican primary, May 14, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 199,497 88.4% 32 32
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 21,231 9.4%
Rachel Swift 2,326 1.0%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 1,481 0.7%
David Stuckenberg 1,168 0.5%
Total: 225,703 100.0% 32 32

Mountain primary

Main article: 2024 Green Party presidential primaries

The Mountain primary (the state's Green Party affiliate) is scheduled to be held on May 14, 2024.

Only one candidate was certified to appear on the primary ballot, who will receive all 4 of the state's pledged delegates:

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill Safe R December 14, 2023
CNalysis Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist Safe R June 12, 2024
538 Solid R June 11, 2024
RCP Solid R June 26, 2024
NBC News Safe R October 6, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Research America August 21–27, 2024 400 (RV) ± 4.9% 61% 34% 5%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies April 13–21, 2024 383 (LV) 63% 31% 6%
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023 539 (RV) ± 4.2% 59% 23% 18%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Jill
Stein
Mountain
Other /
Undecided
Kaplan Strategies June 4, 2024 464 (LV) ± 4.6% 55% 28% 2% 15%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies April 13–21, 2024 383 (LV) 58% 30% 12%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies April 13–21, 2024 383 (LV) 54% 29% 17%

Results

Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
2024 United States presidential election in West Virginia
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican 533,556 69.97 +1.35%
Democratic 214,309 28.10 −1.59%
Independent 8,947 1.17 N/A
Libertarian 3,047 0.40 −0.94%
Mountain 2,531 0.33 No ∆
Socialism and Liberation 73 0.01 +0.01%
American Solidarity 63 0.01 N/A
Independent 39 0.01 N/A
Independent 10 0.00 N/A
Write-in 9 0.00 -0.01%
Total votes 762,584 100.00 N/A

By county

County Donald Trump
Republican
Kamala Harris
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Barbour 5,071 79.30% 1,199 18.75% 125 1.95% 3,872 60.55% 6,395
Berkeley 37,580 66.99% 17,500 31.19% 1,022 1.82% 20,080 35.80% 56,102
Boone 6,314 77.55% 1,641 20.15% 187 2.30% 4,673 57.40% 8,142
Braxton 3,991 75.12% 1,233 23.21% 89 1.67% 2,758 51.91% 5,313
Brooke 6,986 71.42% 2,621 26.79% 175 1.79% 4,365 44.63% 9,782
Cabell 21,229 59.61% 13,474 37.84% 909 2.55% 7,755 21.77% 35,612
Calhoun 2,391 81.44% 488 16.62% 57 1.94% 1,903 64.82% 2,936
Clay 2,597 80.15% 580 17.90% 63 1.95% 2,017 62.25% 3,240
Doddridge 2,541 85.96% 374 12.65% 41 1.39% 2,167 73.31% 2,956
Fayette 10,910 69.85% 4,387 28.09% 323 2.06% 6,523 41.76% 15,620
Gilmer 1,822 77.73% 486 20.73% 36 1.54% 1,336 57.00% 2,344
Grant 4,949 88.88% 552 9.91% 67 1.21% 4,397 78.97% 5,568
Greenbrier 10,517 70.13% 4,196 27.98% 283 1.89% 6,321 42.15% 14,996
Hampshire 8,464 80.46% 1,890 17.97% 166 1.57% 6,574 62.49% 10,520
Hancock 9,462 72.62% 3,360 25.79% 208 1.59% 6,102 46.83% 13,030
Hardy 4,997 77.94% 1,297 20.23% 117 1.83% 3,700 57.71% 6,411
Harrison 20,480 69.44% 8,402 28.49% 613 2.07% 12,078 40.95% 29,495
Jackson 9,907 77.27% 2,699 21.05% 216 1.68% 7,208 56.22% 12,822
Jefferson 16,573 56.53% 11,967 40.82% 777 2.65% 4,606 15.71% 29,317
Kanawha 43,352 57.39% 30,231 40.02% 1,955 2.59% 13,121 17.37% 75,538
Lewis 5,550 78.75% 1,372 19.47% 126 1.78% 4,178 59.28% 7,048
Lincoln 5,770 80.28% 1,279 17.80% 138 1.92% 4,491 62.48% 7,187
Logan 9,500 82.83% 1,848 16.11% 121 1.06% 7,652 66.72% 11,469
Marion 15,881 64.47% 8,185 33.23% 568 2.30% 7,696 31.24% 24,634
Marshall 9,808 74.12% 3,186 24.08% 239 1.80% 6,622 50.04% 13,233
Mason 8,232 78.05% 2,111 20.02% 204 1.93% 6,121 58.03% 10,547
McDowell 4,310 79.45% 1,036 19.10% 79 1.45% 3,274 60.35% 5,425
Mercer 18,372 77.70% 4,851 20.52% 422 1.78% 13,521 57.18% 23,645
Mineral 10,247 79.41% 2,483 19.24% 174 1.35% 7,764 60.17% 12,904
Mingo 7,325 86.28% 1,061 12.50% 104 1.22% 6,264 73.78% 8,490
Monongalia 21,084 50.56% 19,265 46.20% 1,349 3.24% 1,819 4.36% 41,698
Monroe 5,089 79.81% 1,155 18.11% 132 2.08% 3,934 61.70% 6,376
Morgan 7,009 76.74% 1,947 21.32% 178 1.94% 5,062 55.42% 9,134
Nicholas 7,960 79.31% 1,919 19.12% 158 1.57% 6,041 60.19% 10,037
Ohio 11,593 61.77% 6,727 35.84% 448 2.39% 4,866 25.93% 18,768
Pendleton 2,687 78.45% 680 19.85% 58 1.70% 2,007 58.60% 3,425
Pleasants 2,632 78.61% 656 19.59% 60 1.80% 1,976 59.02% 3,348
Pocahontas 2,889 74.06% 927 23.76% 85 2.18% 1,962 50.30% 3,901
Preston 11,176 77.24% 2,953 20.41% 340 2.35% 8,223 56.83% 14,469
Putnam 19,868 72.23% 7,124 25.90% 515 1.87% 12,744 46.33% 27,507
Raleigh 23,644 76.35% 6,816 22.01% 506 1.64% 16,828 54.34% 30,966
Randolph 8,356 72.07% 3,008 25.94% 230 1.99% 5,348 46.13% 11,594
Ritchie 3,473 85.75% 517 12.77% 60 1.48% 2,956 72.98% 4,050
Roane 4,189 75.87% 1,218 22.06% 114 2.07% 2,971 53.81% 5,521
Summers 3,931 74.68% 1,226 23.29% 107 2.03% 2,705 51.39% 5,264
Taylor 5,422 74.39% 1,694 23.24% 173 2.37% 3,728 51.15% 7,289
Tucker 2,669 73.40% 890 24.48% 77 2.12% 1,779 48.92% 3,636
Tyler 2,991 82.69% 554 15.32% 72 1.99% 2,437 67.37% 3,617
Upshur 7,633 77.42% 2,033 20.62% 193 1.96% 5,600 56.80% 9,859
Wayne 11,934 75.79% 3,532 22.43% 281 1.78% 8,402 53.36% 15,747
Webster 2,478 82.66% 479 15.98% 41 1.36% 1,999 66.68% 2,998
Wetzel 4,718 76.49% 1,294 20.98% 156 2.53% 3,424 55.51% 6,168
Wirt 2,120 82.14% 409 15.85% 52 2.01% 1,711 66.29% 2,581
Wood 26,380 70.46% 10,317 27.56% 743 1.98% 16,063 42.90% 37,440
Wyoming 6,503 85.96% 980 12.95% 82 1.09% 5,523 73.01% 7,565
Totals 533,556 69.87% 214,309 28.06% 15,814 2.07% 319,247 41.81% 763,679

By congressional district

Trump won both congressional districts.

District Trump Harris Representative
1st 71.25% 26.89% Carol Miller
2nd 68.82% 29.23% Alex Mooney (118th Congress)
Riley Moore (119th Congress)

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by West Virginia MetroNews
  2. ^ Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

  1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  2. "2024 Senate Election Interactive Map - 270toWin". 270toWin.com. Retrieved July 15, 2024.
  3. "West Virginia Democratic Delegation 2024". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved February 4, 2024.
  4. ^ "Who is running for election in West Virginia?". ballotpedia.org. February 4, 2024. Retrieved February 4, 2024.
  5. "West Virginia Presidential Primary". AP News. June 24, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
  6. "West Virginia Republican Presidential Nominating Process". thegreenpapers.com. October 13, 2023. Retrieved November 18, 2023.
  7. "West Virginia Presidential Primary". AP News. June 24, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
  8. "Apportionment of GPUS National Committee 2023 and GPUS Presidential Nominating Convention 2024". GPUS National Committee. Retrieved February 3, 2024.
  9. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  15. "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  16. Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  17. "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  18. "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News. December 17, 2024.
  19. McElhinny, Brad (August 30, 2024). "West Virginia Poll: solid leads for Morrisey and Justice in upcoming election". West Virginia MetroNews.
  20. ^ "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  21. Mumford, Camille (October 13, 2023). "West Virginia 2024 Poll: Sen. Manchin Faces Uphill Battle Against Gov. Justice, but Leads Rep. Mooney". Emerson Polling.
  22. "WEST VIRGINIA Poll - Kaplan Strategies" (PDF). Kaplan Strategies. June 6, 2024.
  23. "Election Night Reporting".
  24. https://sos.wv.gov/elections/Documents/2024%20General%20Write-in%20Results.pdf
  25. "2024 West Virginia Election Results by Congressional District".
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