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2024 United States presidential election in Missouri

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Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Missouri
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,751,986 1,200,599
Percentage 58.49% 40.08%
County results Congressional district results

Trump

  50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%

Harris

  50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%

President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Missouri took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Missouri voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Missouri has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Missouri a state Trump would win, or a red state. Formerly a bellwether state, Missouri has trended towards the Republican Party in recent years and since the late 2010s has been considered a GOP stronghold at both the federal and state levels.

As he did in the previous two presidential elections, Republican Donald Trump easily won Missouri in 2024, this time by an 18.4% margin.

Primary elections

Republican caucuses

Main article: 2024 Missouri Republican presidential caucuses

The Missouri Republican caucuses was held on March 2, 2024, alongside the Republican caucuses in Idaho and Michigan.

Missouri Republican caucus, March 2, 2024
Candidate State delegates Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 924 100.00 54 0 54
Nikki Haley 0 0.00 0 0 0
David Stuckenberg 0 0.00 0 0 0
Total: 924 100 54 0 54

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Missouri Democratic presidential primary

The Missouri Democratic primary was held on March 23, 2024, alongside the Democratic primary in Louisiana.

Missouri Democratic primary, March 22, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 16,295 85.3% 61
Uncommitted 2,229 11.7% 3
Marianne Williamson 298 1.6%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 178 0.9%
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn) 40 0.2%
Jason Palmer 36 0.2%
Armando Perez-Serrato 24 0.1%
Total: 19,100 100.0% 64 6 70

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill Safe R December 14, 2023
CNalysis Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist Safe R June 12, 2024
538 Solid R October 18, 2024
RCP Likely R June 26, 2024
NBC News Safe R October 6, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Research Co. November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 54% 39% 7%
ActiVote October 6–27, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 58% 42% –
ActiVote September 8 – October 10, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 57% 43% –
Emerson College September 12–13, 2024 850 (LV) ± 3.3% 53% 43% 4%
55% 43% 2%
Change Research (D) September 11–13, 2024 1,237 (RV) ± 3.1% 50% 41% 9%
GQR (D) September 6–12, 2024 645 (LV) ± 3.9% 55% 44% 1%
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 19–22, 2024 Democratic National Convention
ActiVote July 25 – August 22, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 59% 41% –
YouGov/Saint Louis University August 8–16, 2024 900 (LV) ± 3.8% 54% 41% 5%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri Scout October 28–29, 2024 721 (LV) ± 3.6% 54% 40% – 1% 1% 4%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College June 17–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 53% 40% 7%
John Zogby Strategies April 13–21, 2024 509 (LV) – 49% 43% 8%
Emerson College January 23–28, 2024 1,830 (RV) ± 2.2% 49% 32% 19%
Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri Scout October 10–11, 2023 806 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 39% 9%
SurveyUSA October 27 – November 1, 2022 991 (RV) ± 3.7% 52% 34% 14%
Emerson College October 26–28, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 53% 37% 9%
Emerson College September 23–27, 2022 1,160 (LV) ± 2.8% 51% 37% 12%
SurveyUSA September 14–18, 2022 830 (RV) ± 3.9% 52% 35% 13%
SurveyUSA July 24–27, 2022 1,981 (RV) ± 2.7% 51% 35% 14%
SurveyUSA May 11–15, 2022 1,412 (LV) ± 3.2% 50% 35% 15%
Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri Scout September 18–20, 2021 1,014 (LV) ± 2.9% 55% 36% 9%
Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri Scout April 21–22, 2021 933 (LV) ± 3.0% 53% 38% 9%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College June 17–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 35% 7% 1% 1% 6%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies April 13–21, 2024 509 (LV) – 45% 42% 13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies April 13–21, 2024 509 (LV) – 51% 36% 13%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Missouri
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican 1,751,986 58.49 +1.69
Democratic 1,200,599 40.08 −1.33
Libertarian 23,876 0.80 −0.56
Green 17,135 0.57 +0.44
Write-in 1,731 0.06 -0.23
Total votes 2,995,327 100.00 N/A

By county

County Donald Trump
Republican 		Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adair 6,771 65.80% 3,334 32.40% 186 1.80% 3,437 33.40% 10,291
Andrew 7,407 75.22% 2,312 23.48% 128 1.30% 5,095 51.74% 9,847
Atchison 2,152 79.32% 529 19.50% 32 1.18% 1,623 59.82% 2,713
Audrain 7,699 73.16% 2,688 25.54% 136 1.30% 5,011 47.62% 10,523
Barry 13,138 81.27% 2,873 17.77% 154 0.96% 10,265 63.50% 16,165
Barton 5,159 85.77% 820 13.63% 36 0.60% 4,339 72.14% 6,015
Bates 6,702 80.17% 1,563 18.70% 95 1.13% 5,139 61.47% 8,360
Benton 8,526 79.17% 2,166 20.11% 77 0.72% 6,360 59.06% 10,769
Bollinger 5,365 87.08% 756 12.27% 40 0.65% 4,609 74.81% 6,161
Boone 39,673 43.90% 48,452 53.61% 2,250 2.49% -8,779 -9.71% 90,375
Buchanan 22,606 62.96% 12,598 35.09% 701 1.95% 10,008 27.87% 35,905
Butler 14,549 81.46% 3,160 17.69% 151 0.85% 11,389 63.77% 17,860
Caldwell 3,771 80.18% 888 18.88% 44 0.94% 2,883 61.30% 4,703
Callaway 15,206 70.87% 5,926 27.62% 323 1.51% 9,280 43.25% 21,455
Camden 19,597 76.49% 5,724 22.34% 301 1.17% 13,873 54.15% 25,622
Cape Girardeau 29,315 72.32% 10,561 26.05% 661 1.63% 18,754 46.27% 40,537
Carroll 3,708 81.76% 789 17.40% 38 0.84% 2,919 64.36% 4,535
Carter 2,488 86.93% 364 12.72% 10 0.35% 2,124 74.21% 2,862
Cass 38,792 65.36% 19,753 33.28% 804 1.36% 19,039 32.08% 59,349
Cedar 6,064 84.36% 1,060 14.75% 64 0.89% 5,004 69.61% 7,188
Chariton 3,179 77.75% 875 21.40% 35 0.85% 2,304 56.35% 4,089
Christian 38,379 75.57% 11,850 23.33% 560 1.10% 26,529 52.24% 50,789
Clark 2,679 80.38% 628 18.84% 26 0.78% 2,051 61.54% 3,333
Clay 67,688 51.75% 60,345 46.14% 2,756 2.11% 7,343 5.61% 130,789
Clinton 8,235 73.09% 2,855 25.34% 177 1.57% 5,380 47.75% 11,267
Cole 26,686 66.46% 12,874 32.06% 592 1.48% 13,812 34.40% 40,152
Cooper 6,393 72.10% 2,347 26.47% 127 1.43% 4,046 45.63% 8,867
Crawford 8,742 80.73% 2,007 18.53% 80 0.74% 6,735 62.20% 10,829
Dade 3,480 83.13% 671 16.03% 35 0.84% 2,809 67.10% 4,186
Dallas 6,907 81.83% 1,458 17.27% 76 0.90% 5,449 64.56% 8,441
Daviess 3,185 81.15% 701 17.86% 39 0.99% 2,484 63.29% 3,925
DeKalb 3,885 80.70% 870 18.07% 59 1.23% 3,015 62.63% 4,814
Dent 6,013 84.65% 1,025 14.43% 65 0.92% 4,988 70.22% 7,103
Douglas 6,242 85.64% 996 13.66% 51 0.70% 5,246 71.98% 7,289
Dunklin 8,096 80.55% 1,885 18.75% 70 0.70% 6,211 61.80% 10,051
Franklin 40,126 72.04% 14,694 26.38% 879 1.58% 25,432 45.66% 55,699
Gasconade 6,370 79.65% 1,555 19.44% 72 0.91% 4,815 60.21% 7,997
Gentry 2,651 80.53% 616 18.71% 25 0.76% 2,035 61.82% 3,292
Greene 85,956 59.33% 55,971 38.63% 2,949 2.04% 29,985 20.70% 144,876
Grundy 3,582 81.34% 784 17.80% 38 0.86% 2,798 63.54% 4,404
Harrison 3,293 85.64% 534 13.89% 18 0.47% 2,759 71.75% 3,845
Henry 8,286 75.80% 2,535 23.19% 111 1.01% 5,751 52.61% 10,932
Hickory 4,108 80.23% 978 19.10% 34 0.67% 3,130 61.13% 5,120
Holt 1,982 84.27% 357 15.18% 13 0.55% 1,625 69.09% 2,352
Howard 3,534 71.31% 1,341 27.06% 81 1.63% 2,193 44.25% 4,956
Howell 15,733 82.94% 3,073 16.20% 162 0.86% 12,660 66.74% 18,968
Iron 3,644 80.66% 824 18.24% 50 1.10% 2,820 62.42% 4,518
Jackson 125,610 39.29% 187,026 58.50% 7,092 2.21% -61,416 -19.21% 319,728
Jasper 39,084 72.32% 13,943 25.80% 1,014 1.88% 25,141 46.52% 54,041
Jefferson 80,796 67.42% 36,965 30.85% 2,072 1.73% 43,831 36.57% 119,833
Johnson 16,298 68.80% 6,960 29.38% 430 1.82% 9,338 39.42% 23,688
Knox 1,479 81.71% 311 17.18% 20 1.11% 1,168 64.53% 1,810
Laclede 14,155 82.59% 2,756 16.08% 228 1.33% 11,399 66.51% 17,139
Lafayette 12,720 73.75% 4,294 24.90% 234 1.35% 8,426 48.85% 17,248
Lawrence 15,001 81.12% 3,248 17.56% 243 1.32% 11,753 63.56% 18,492
Lewis 3,565 79.47% 872 19.44% 49 1.09% 2,693 60.03% 4,486
Lincoln 24,866 77.38% 6,908 21.50% 359 1.12% 17,958 55.88% 32,133
Linn 4,437 78.02% 1,183 20.80% 67 1.18% 3,254 57.22% 5,687
Livingston 5,395 78.50% 1,422 20.69% 56 0.81% 3,973 57.81% 6,873
Macon 6,300 80.37% 1,481 18.89% 58 0.74% 4,819 61.48% 7,839
Madison 4,721 82.06% 986 17.14% 46 0.80% 3,735 64.92% 5,753
Maries 3,987 83.31% 755 15.78% 44 0.91% 3,232 67.53% 4,786
Marion 9,991 75.96% 3,032 23.05% 130 0.99% 6,959 52.91% 13,153
McDonald 7,843 83.99% 1,423 15.24% 72 0.77% 6,420 68.75% 9,338
Mercer 1,545 86.22% 235 13.11% 12 0.67% 1,310 73.11% 1,792
Miller 10,826 83.21% 2,067 15.89% 118 0.90% 8,759 67.32% 13,011
Mississippi 3,404 76.51% 1,015 22.81% 30 0.68% 2,389 53.70% 4,449
Moniteau 5,877 80.78% 1,313 18.05% 85 1.17% 4,564 62.73% 7,275
Monroe 3,476 79.40% 857 19.58% 45 1.02% 2,619 59.82% 4,378
Montgomery 4,776 79.63% 1,170 19.51% 52 0.86% 3,606 60.12% 5,998
Morgan 7,725 79.35% 1,914 19.66% 96 0.99% 5,811 59.69% 9,735
New Madrid 5,203 76.39% 1,561 22.92% 47 0.69% 3,642 53.47% 6,811
Newton 22,923 78.50% 5,867 20.09% 410 1.41% 17,056 58.41% 29,200
Nodaway 6,909 71.08% 2,674 27.51% 137 1.41% 4,235 43.57% 9,720
Oregon 3,884 84.20% 696 15.09% 33 0.71% 3,188 69.11% 4,613
Osage 6,657 85.95% 1,009 13.03% 79 1.02% 5,648 72.92% 7,745
Ozark 4,044 84.60% 698 14.60% 38 0.80% 3,346 70.00% 4,780
Pemiscot 3,917 74.21% 1,331 25.22% 30 0.57% 2,586 48.99% 5,278
Perry 7,986 81.13% 1,757 17.85% 101 1.02% 6,229 63.28% 9,844
Pettis 13,907 73.45% 4,703 24.84% 325 1.71% 9,204 48.61% 18,935
Phelps 13,658 70.46% 5,379 27.75% 348 1.79% 8,279 42.71% 19,385
Pike 6,151 78.33% 1,618 20.60% 84 1.07% 4,533 57.73% 7,853
Platte 29,381 50.49% 27,566 47.37% 1,242 2.14% 1,815 3.12% 58,189
Polk 12,691 79.78% 2,948 18.53% 269 1.69% 9,743 61.25% 15,908
Pulaski 11,579 74.21% 3,765 24.13% 260 1.66% 7,814 50.08% 15,604
Putnam 2,021 84.92% 347 14.58% 12 0.50% 1,674 70.34% 2,380
Ralls 4,575 79.19% 1,154 19.98% 48 0.83% 3,421 59.21% 5,777
Randolph 8,322 75.46% 2,571 23.31% 135 1.23% 5,751 52.15% 11,028
Ray 8,602 73.53% 2,927 25.02% 170 1.45% 5,675 48.51% 11,699
Reynolds 2,560 83.69% 472 15.43% 27 0.88% 2,088 68.26% 3,059
Ripley 5,002 86.18% 763 13.15% 39 0.67% 4,239 73.03% 5,804
Saline 6,498 69.65% 2,726 29.22% 106 1.13% 3,772 40.43% 9,330
Schuyler 1,588 81.65% 334 17.17% 23 1.18% 1,254 64.48% 1,945
Scotland 1,537 80.05% 358 18.65% 25 1.30% 1,179 61.40% 1,920
Scott 13,786 78.87% 3,525 20.17% 169 0.96% 10,261 58.70% 17,480
Shannon 3,364 83.72% 625 15.56% 29 0.72% 2,739 68.16% 4,018
Shelby 2,691 82.50% 550 16.86% 21 0.64% 2,141 65.64% 3,262
St. Charles 130,588 57.42% 92,226 40.56% 4,594 2.02% 38,362 16.86% 227,408
St. Clair 3,982 79.80% 959 19.22% 49 0.98% 3,023 60.58% 4,990
St. Francois 21,521 74.99% 6,811 23.73% 366 1.28% 14,710 51.26% 28,698
St. Louis 187,982 37.39% 305,635 60.79% 9,121 1.82% -117,653 -23.40% 502,738
St. Louis City 19,342 16.53% 94,458 80.75% 3,179 2.72% -75,116 -64.22% 116,979
Ste. Genevieve 7,031 71.72% 2,629 26.82% 143 1.46% 4,402 44.90% 9,803
Stoddard 11,783 86.42% 1,736 12.73% 115 0.85% 10,047 73.69% 13,634
Stone 15,357 80.07% 3,620 18.87% 202 1.06% 11,737 61.20% 19,179
Sullivan 2,035 82.62% 408 16.57% 20 0.81% 1,627 66.05% 2,463
Taney 21,236 79.17% 5,329 19.87% 259 0.96% 15,907 59.30% 26,824
Texas 9,855 85.51% 1,589 13.79% 81 0.70% 8,266 71.72% 11,525
Vernon 7,112 79.01% 1,774 19.71% 115 1.28% 5,338 59.30% 9,001
Warren 14,915 73.96% 4,970 24.65% 281 1.39% 9,945 49.31% 20,166
Washington 8,424 82.03% 1,747 17.01% 99 0.96% 6,677 65.02% 10,270
Wayne 5,030 86.03% 783 13.39% 34 0.58% 4,247 72.64% 5,847
Webster 15,984 80.67% 3,653 18.44% 177 0.89% 12,331 62.23% 19,814
Worth 904 81.81% 190 17.19% 11 1.00% 714 64.62% 1,105
Wright 7,850 87.42% 1,057 11.77% 73 0.81% 6,793 75.65% 8,980
Totals 1,751,986 58.33% 1,200,599 39.97% 51,189 1.70% 551,387 18.36% 3,003,774
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%

By congressional district

Trump won six of eight congressional districts.

District Trump Harris Representative
1st 20.53% 77.65% Cori Bush (118th Congress)
Wesley Bell (119th Congress)
2nd 53.10% 45.19% Ann Wagner
3rd 62.66% 35.88% Blaine Luetkemeyer (118th Congress)
Bob Onder (119th Congress)
4th 70.51% 28.21% Mark Alford
5th 37.53% 60.69% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 68.83% 29.97% Sam Graves
7th 70.68% 28.09% Eric Burlison
8th 76.50% 22.52% Jason Smith

Analysis

Missouri is a Midwestern state with heavy Southern cultural influence, having been a Southern border state and contested between the Union and Confederacy during the Civil War. A nigh-infallible bellwether state for the bulk of the 20th century well into the 2000s (backing the winner of all but one presidential election for a century, from 1904 to 2004, the exception being 1956 by just 0.22% and less than 4,000 votes), Missouri has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000. It is widely understood to have lost its bellwether status when Democrat Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois failed to carry the state in either of his presidential victories, followed by Republican Donald Trump carrying it by more than 15% in all three of his election bids.

As half the state is located in the conservative Bible Belt, with the southern portion of the state being part of the Upland South, Missouri has drifted away from being a political bellwether towards the Republican Party in the 21st century and is now a strongly red state, with Republicans occupying every statewide office since 2023. Democratic strength in Missouri is nowadays largely limited to the Kansas City and St. Louis areas, as well as the college town of Columbia.

Democrat Kamala Harris won the same jurisdictions that Joe Biden did in 2020, as did Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Obama in 2012: Jackson County, home to Kansas City; Boone County, home to Columbia; the independent city of St. Louis; and St. Louis County, which contains many of St. Louis's closest suburbs.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  3. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  4. "Other" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

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  15. "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  16. Canseco, Mario (November 4, 2024). "Battleground States Remain Closely Contested in U.S. Race". Research Co.
  17. Allis, Victor (October 28, 2024). "Trump Leads in Missouri". ActiVote. Retrieved October 28, 2024.
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  21. Lemon, Jason (September 13, 2024). "Lucas Kunce Within Striking Distance of Josh Hawley—Internal Poll". Newsweek.
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  25. ^ Mumford, Camille (June 21, 2024). "Missouri 2024 Poll: Ashcroft 23%, Kehoe 20% Lead Republican Primary for Governor; 46% undecided". Emerson Polling.
  26. ^ "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  27. Mumford, Camille (February 2, 2024). "Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, and South Dakota 2024 Polls: Biden Underperforming Among Women and Young Voters". Emerson Polling.
  28. "October 2023 - Missouri Statewide" (PDF). Missouri Scout. October 12, 2023.
  29. "Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #26640". SurveyUSA. November 2, 2022.
  30. Mumford, Camille (November 1, 2022). "Missouri 2022: Republican Eric Schmitt Maintains Double Digit Lead Over Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine". Emerson Polling.
  31. Mumford, Camille (September 29, 2022). "Missouri 2022: Republican Eric Schmitt With Double Digit Lead Over Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine". Emerson Polling.
  32. "Show Me Deja Vu All Over Again (Again) As Trump/Biden Do-Over Sees Same Result In Missouri – Largely Unchanged Since May". SurveyUSA. September 19, 2022.
  33. "Show Me Deja Vu All Over Again As Trump/Biden Do-Over Sees Same Result In Missouri – Unchanged, as are Approval Ratings, Since May". SurveyUSA. July 28, 2022.
  34. Usery, Stephanie; Ruch, Amber (May 20, 2022). "Exclusive poll shows who Missourians would vote for in 2024 Trump vs. Biden rematch". First Alert 4.
  35. "MISSOURI 2022 General Election - September 2021" (PDF). Missouri Scout. September 20, 2021.
  36. "April 2021 - Missouri 2022 General Election Survey" (PDF). Missouri Scout. April 22, 2021.
  37. General Election, November 05, 2024, Official Results, Missouri Secretary of State, December 5, 2024.
  38. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZHx5E0-5vuXxcZShBgsAl_vwAntkkanGqYQp0owNjoQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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