2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

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United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2012

← 2006

November 6, 2012

2018 →

		File:Tom Smith, US Senate Candidate.png
Nominee	Bob Casey, Jr.	Tom Smith
Party	Democratic	Republican

U.S. senator before election

Bob Casey, Jr.
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

TBD

Elections in Pennsylvania

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Government

The 2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey, Jr. is running for re-election to a second term against Republican nominee Tom Smith.

Background

On November 7, 2006, Bob Casey, Jr., the State Treasurer and son of former Governor Bob Casey, Sr., defeated two-term incumbent Republican Senator Rick Santorum with 58.64% of votes cast. Santorum's margin of defeat was the largest for an incumbent Republican Senator in Pennsylvania history; it was also the first time a Democrat was elected to a full Senate term from Pennsylvania since Joseph Clark was re-elected in 1962.

Pennsylvania is considered a battleground state; since the 1970 election of Governor Milton Shapp, no governor has lost his bid for re-election and partisan control of the governorship has alternated between Democratic and Republican. Additionally, Republicans have controlled the State Senate since 1995, while Democrats assumed control of the State House following the 2006 election, only to lose control in the 2010 election. The state has, however, voted for every Democratic presidential candidate from 1992 onwards.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Bob Casey, Jr., incumbent U.S. senator
Joseph Vodvarka, Spring-maker

Results

Democratic primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Bob Casey, Jr.	565,488	80.9
	Democratic	Joseph Vodvarka	133,683	19.1
Total votes			699,171	100

Republican primary

Candidates

On ballot

David Christian, businessman and veterans' advocate
John Kensinger, pharmacist
Sam Rohrer, former state representative
Marc Scaringi, attorney and former legislative aide to Rick Santorum
Tom Smith, farmer and former businessman
Steve Welch, businessman

Withdrew

Tim Burns, businessman and unsuccessful candidate for the 12th district in the 2010 special and general elections
Laureen Cummings, Tea Party activist
John Vernon, retired Army colonel

Campaign

In January 2012, the Pennsylvania Republican Party officially endorsed Steve Welch for U.S. Senate. The largest state newspaper, Philadelphia Inquirer, also endorsed Welch. He was also endorsed by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. However, he was criticized for changing his party registration. In 2008, he became a Democrat so he could vote for Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary. In 2006, he donated money to Democrat U.S. Congressman Joe Sestak.

Tom Smith spent nearly $3 million in the first three months of 2012, outspending Welch 2-1. Smith has spent a wide majority of it in television advertising. Like Welch, Smith has also registered as a Democrat. However, unlike Welch who was a registered Democrat for only a few years, Smith was a Democrat for 42 years. Smith was a Plumcreek Township Supervisor and allegedly raised taxes 9 times (including the real estate, earned income, and per capita taxes). Over the past decade, he donated over $185,000 to Republican candidates. The only Democrat he donated to was U.S. Congressman Jason Altmire, a moderate Blue Dog.

Sam Rohrer, a former State Representative, ran for statewide office again after losing to State Attorney General Tom Corbett in the 2010 Republican primary for Pennsylvania Governor. Rohrer was endorsed by various tea party organizations, as well as U.S. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and 2012 Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain.

David Christian, a Vietnam war veteran and businessman, also ran. He previously ran for congress in 1984 and 1986. He was endorsed by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tim Burns	Laureen Cummings	David Christian	John Kensinger	Sam Rohrer	Marc Scaringi	Tom Smith	John Vernon	Steve Welch	Other	Undecided
Franklin & Marshall College	March 20–25, 2012	505	± 4.2%	—	—	1%	—	7%	1%	9%	—	1%	—	81%
Public Policy Polling	March 8–11, 2012	564	± 4.1%	—	—	10%	—	16%	8%	12%	—	5%	—	48%
Tribune-Review/WPXI-TV	February 2–6, 2012	500	± 4.4%	—	—	1%	3%	10%	1%	8%	—	1%	—	72%
Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	400	± 4.9%	15%	2%	—	—	25%	0%	3%	1%	1%	8%	43%

Results

Republican primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Tom Smith	299,726	39.5
	Republican	Sam Rohrer	169,118	22.3
	Republican	Steve Welch	158,181	20.9
	Republican	David Christian	79,581	10.5
	Republican	Marc Scaringi	51,908	6.8
Total votes			758,514	100

General election

Candidates

Bob Casey, Jr. (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Senator
Tom Smith (Republican), businessman
Rayburn Smith (Libertarian)

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Tom Smith (R)	Other	Undecided
Philadelphia Inquirer	August 21-23, 2012	601	± 4%	53%	34%	—	13%
MCall/Muhlenburg Poll	August 20-22, 2012	422	± 5%	49%	30%	—	18%
Franklin & Marshall College	August 7-12, 2012	681	± 3.8%	35%	23%	2%	39%
Quinnipiac	July 24-30, 2012	1,168	± 2.9%	55%	37%	—	8%
Public Policy Polling	July 21-23, 2012	758	± 3.6%	46%	36%	—	18%
Rasmussen Reports	July 18, 2012	500	± 4.5%	49%	38%	—	9%
We Ask America	July 9-10, 2012	1,227	± 2.8%	53%	39%	—	8%
Quinnipiac	June 19-25, 2012	1,252	± 2.8%	49%	32%	1%	17%
Quinnipiac	June 5–10, 2012	997	± 3.1%	51%	32%	1%	14%
Franklin & Marshall College	May 29–June 4, 2012	412	± 4.8%	42%	21%	2%	35%
Rasmussen Reports	May 21, 2012	500	± 4.5%	48%	41%	3%	7%
Public Policy Polling	May 17–20, 2012	671	± 3.8%	49%	33%	—	19%
Public Policy Polling	March 8–11, 2012	689	± 3.7%	49%	31%	—	20%
Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%	48%	32%	—	20%

Hypothetical polling

Republican Primary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jake Corman	Laureen Cummings	Charlie Dent	Jim Gerlach	Tim Murphy	Rick Santorum	Marc Scaringi	Mark Schweiker	Kim Ward	Other/ Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 30 – July 5, 2011	376	± 5.1%	9%	5%	4%	7%	9%	47%	1%	—	0%	18%
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	400	± 4.9%	3%	—	8%	9%	7%	45%	1%	8%	1%	19%
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	400	± 4.9%	9%	—	10%	14%	13%	—	1%	18%	2%	33%

General election

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Republican	Depends on the candidate	Undecided
Quinnipiac	March 7–12, 2012	1256	± 2.8%	46%	34%	8%	12%
Morning Call	February 15–21, 2012	625	± 4%	40%	25%	20%	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Tim Burns (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%	49%	34%	—	17%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	David Christian (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	March 8–11, 2012	689	± 3.7%	50%	32%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Jake Corman (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 30 – July 5, 2011	545	± 4.2%	51%	35%	—	14%
Public Policy Polling	April 7–10, 2011	593	± 4.0%	51%	35%	—	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Laureen Cummings (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 30 – July 5, 2011	545	± 4.2%	51%	31%	—	18%
Public Policy Polling	April 7–10, 2011	593	± 4.0%	51%	32%	—	17%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Charlie Dent (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 7–10, 2011	593	± 4.0%	51%	31%	—	18%
Municipoll	February 21–23, 2011	670	± 3.79.%	51%	32%	—	17%
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	547	± 4.2%	51%	31%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Jim Gerlach (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 30 – July 5, 2011	545	± 4.2%	49%	33%	—	17%
Public Policy Polling	April 7–10, 2011	593	± 4.0%	50%	32%	—	19%
Municipoll	February 21–23, 2011	670	± 3.79.%	48%	34%	—	17%
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	547	± 4.2%	49%	33%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Tim Murphy (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 30 – July 5, 2011	545	± 4.2%	47%	35%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Sam Rohrer (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	March 8–11, 2012	689	± 3.7%	49%	34%	—	17%
Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%	47%	36%	—	16%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Rick Santorum (R)	Other	Undecided
Morning Call	February 15–21, 2012	625	± 4%	44%	36%	7%	12%
Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%	49%	39%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling	June 30 – July 5, 2011	545	± 4.2%	48%	39%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling	April 7–10, 2011	593	± 4.0%	49%	37%	—	13%
Municipoll	February 21–23, 2011	670	± 3.79.%	50%	38%	—	12%
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	547	± 4.2%	48%	41%	—	10%
Public Policy Polling	June 19–21, 2010	609	± 4.0%	51%	39%	—	10%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Marc Scaringi (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	March 8–11, 2012	689	± 3.7%	49%	29%	—	22%
Public Policy Polling	June 30 – July 5, 2011	545	± 4.2%	47%	29%	—	24%
Public Policy Polling	April 7–10, 2011	593	± 4.0%	51%	28%	—	21%
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	547	± 4.2%	50%	27%	—	22%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Mark Schweiker (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	547	± 4.2%	47%	34%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Kim Ward (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 7–10, 2011	593	± 4.0%	50%	29%	—	21%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Steve Welch (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	March 8–11, 2012	689	± 3.7%	49%	31	—	22%
Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%	47%	33%	—	20%

Results

United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2012
Party		Candidate
	Democratic	Bob Casey, Jr.
	Republican	Tom Smith
	Libertarian	Rayburn Smith
Majority
Turnout

References

Itkowitz, Colby (November 21, 2010). "Mellow Casey has to up profile for re-election". The Morning Call. Retrieved November 25, 2010.
^ Malloy, Daniel (November 26, 2010). "Murrysville native planning for 2010 run against Casey". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved November 26, 2010.
Itkowitz, Colby (February 15, 2012). "Petitions filed for Pa. primary". The Allentown Morning Call. Retrieved February 22, 2012.
^ "2012 General Primary: United States Senator". PA Department of State. Retrieved April 25, 2012.
"2012: David Christian Enters U.S. Senate Race". Pike County Republican Committee. Retrieved September 24, 2011.
Reabuck, Sandra K. (September 28, 2011). "New Paris pharmacist seeks GOP nomination". The Tribune-Democrat. Retrieved September 30, 2011.
Levy, Marc (November 4, 2011). "Sam Rohrer to run for Casey's Senate seat". MSNBC. Retrieved November 6, 2011.
Guerriero, John (September 29, 2011). "Armstrong County Republican announces candidacy for U.S. Senate in Erie". Erie Times-News. Retrieved September 30, 2011.
Gibson, Keegan (September 13, 2011). "Welch to Enter Senate Race". PoliticsPA. Retrieved September 14, 2011.
"Burns Exits Senate Race". PoliticsPA. February 2, 2012. Retrieved February 2, 2011.
Gibson, Keegan (January 14, 2012). "Cummings Drops Out of Senate Race, Endorses Burns". Politics PA. Retrieved January 16, 2012.
Jerry, Tara (January 16, 2012). "Vernon Endorses Burns for Senate". Politics PA. Retrieved January 17, 2012.
Levy, Mark (January 29, 2012). "Pa. GOP endorses Welch to challenge Sen. Casey". Associated Press. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
"Smith outspends, outraises Welch in US Senate race". Associated Press. April 13, 2012. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
Gibson, Keegan (April 16, 2012). "Where's Tom Smith?". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
Gibson, Keegan (March 26, 2012). "Smith Tax Votes Play in Senate Campaign". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
Gibson, Keegan (August 17, 2011). "Sen. Candidate Smith a Heavyweight GOP Donor". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
Gibson, Keegan (March 28, 2012). "Bachmann Endorses Rohrer". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
"Primary 2012: Nominate Christian". Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
Brennan, Kevin (April 24, 2012). "Smith Wins Pennsylvania Senate Primary". National Journal. Retrieved April 25, 2012.
"11/6/2012 2012 GENERAL ELECTION GENERAL CANDIDATE LIST" (PDF). Pennsylvania Department of State. Retrieved August 27, 2012.

External links

Official campaign websites

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